Technical ReportPDF Available

Strongest warming in 10,000 years by the Sun not CO2

Authors:
  • Geoclastica Ltd

Abstract

GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2020-4. Hello. I invite you to change your life by spending just 15 minutes (one coffee) examining these seven slides. WHO AM I? A 66-years-old published independent geologist (sedimentologist) with a doctorate in geology (University of Oxford 1982-86) and 35 years' worldwide geological consulting experience, I'm now in my 5th year of full-time, self-funded (hence unbiased) literature research, integrating ALL scientific aspects of climate change, including geology, archaeology, oceanography, meteorology, glaciology, astrophysics, palaeoclimatology, and 'climate science' (mainly computer modelling of climate). I began this quest for climate truth in 2015, fully expecting to verify what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the media and governments were saying (shouting) about CO2 being a supposed 'pollutant'. How wrong I was. In 15 minutes you will know why. I would be surprised if anyone, after carefully reading these 7 slides, still accepts IPCC's claim that our variable Sun is not the main driver of Earth's climate for the last 10,000 years, including the ongoing 'Modern Warming' (since 1800). Man's industrial CO2 emissions from ~1850, the start of the Industrial Revolution, just happen to coincide, by pure chance, with the 1700-1991 largest solar upswing in 10,000 years. The IPCC, by incriminating CO2, has committed the greatest scientific blunder in human history. Please encourage others to read this contribution. IF YOU HAVE ANY DIFFICULTY DOWNLOADING THE PDF, please email me for a copy … rogerhiggs@hotmail.com
1800-2020AD strongest warming in 10,000 years due to the Sun, not CO2
Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd, Technical Note 2020-4, 23rd April 2020, amended 17th May 2021
Slide 1 of 7
Purple = Earth’s axial obliquity,
steadily declined since ~9000BP, so in
Slide 2 I have tilted the solar-output
graph, to depict joint solar- & orbital
forcing of Earth’s temperature ...
1950
AD
Measured 1950 SST (Note 2)
Years BP (‘before present’, i.e. before 1950)
Javier 2017 after Marcott et al. 2013
(see Slide 7 for links to references)
Graph 1. World average temperature from proxies, mostly sea-surface water temp. (SST)
Marcott et al. 2013 original (see Note 2)
False terminal
spike (Note 2)
Extended global ‘Medieval Warm Period’;
contrast conventional 1000-700BP
(950-1250AD), North Atlantic (Wiki)
2020 SST (Note 2)
1800-2020AD strongest warming in 10,000 years due to the Sun, not CO2
Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd, Technical Note 2020-4, 23rd April 2020, amended 17th May 2021
Slide 2. World temperature correlation with Sun’s magnetic output
ends
1650 AD
OBVIOUS MATCH:
Final heavy red bar
1800-1950 (ongoing) largest
multi-century warming in
10,000yr
... matches ...
final double arrow, Sun’s
post-1700 largest(?) surge
(and reaching highest peak)
in >10,000yr (Slide 3)
Temperature currently lags
behind the Sun by ~60yr
(Higgs 2020c)
Years BP
1. World average temperature (Javier/Marcott, from Slide 1)
2. Sun’s output, proxy for solar-magnetic flux, from proxy C14 (tree rings) & Be10
(ice core), Inceoglu et al. 2015. Far right = C14 (black) & sunspots (red), Usoskin et al. 2014.
Graph tilted to simulate declining axial obliquity (Slide 1).
2020 SST
(Slide 1)
Sun’s ‘Modern Grand Maximum’,
1937-2004, strongest in >10,000yr (Slide 3)
1800-2020AD strongest warming in 10,000 years due to the Sun, not CO2
Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd, Technical Note 2020-4, 23rd April 2020, amended 17th May 2021
Slide 3. Another published graph showing Sun’s exceptional post-1700 surge
Sun’s activity Solanki et al. 2004
Heavy red double arrow
= largest multi-century
rise of Sun’s magnetic
output, and highest
peak, in >10,000yrs
(cf. Slide 2)
!Solar ‘Grand Maximum’ threshold
(Usoskin et al. 2014)
NB Royal Observatory of Belgium, linked to IPCC
(which dismisses solar control of climate), “corrected” this
red sunspot curve, making the Modern Grand Maximum
(1937-2004; circled) look less exceptional (Higgs 2019c).
Blue curve = sunspot number reconstructed from tree-ring C14.
Final red curve = observed Group Sunspot Number since 1610AD.
Shaded area is the most recent period of solar activity similar to the
1937-2004 ‘Modern Grand Maximum’.
Solanki et al. 2004: the “period of high solar activity since
about AD 1940 ... not only is ... unusually high, but also
this high level of activity has lasted unusually long.”
1800-2020AD strongest warming in 10,000 years due to the Sun, not CO2
Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd, Technical Note 2020-4, 23rd April 2020, amended 17th May 2021
Slide 4. Last 11,000yr: global temp. & CO2 mismatch except post-1850 chance coincidence
TIME% 2000AD%
8,000BC%% BC%%AD%
1. World average temperature
from proxies, mostly sea-surface water temp. (SST)
Javier 2017
2. Atmospheric carbon dioxide https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ghgs-epcia-holocene-CO2-en.svg
CO2 shows no correlation with Graph 1 global temperature until the accidental correlation after 1850
(start of industrial emissions). See Note 6.
SST today,
2020
(Note 2)
= sharp warmings. Only the last one (Modern Warming)
coincides, by chance, with rising CO2 (by man’s emissions).
1800-2020AD strongest warming in 10,000 years due to the Sun, not CO2
Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd, Technical Note 2020-4, 23rd April 2020, amended 17th May 2021
Slide 5. Notes
1. The current Holocene interglacial period began ~11,650 years ago.
2. Slides 1 & 2, Graph 1, shows proxy estimates of world average temperature (mostly sea-surface water temp., SST). The black curve
is by Javier 2017, using the Marcott et al. 2013 data compilation, replotted after ‘differencing’, without smoothing, and rescaled to
match diverse evidence that the ‘Holocene Climatic Optimum’ (sic) was ~1.2 C degrees warmer than ‘Little Ice Age’ (Graph 1). The
red curve is Marcott’s original graph, excessively smoothed, too cool, and with an artificial terminal spike due to proxy drop-out
(Javier 2017). The purple curve is Earth’s axial obliquity; its decline since ~9,000 years BP (‘Before Present’, i.e. 1950) explains the
overall cooling. Steep warming until ~10,000BP was due to increasing obliquity & shrinking ice sheets (falling albedo). The red dot is
present-day (2020) global average SST, ~0.6degC above 1950 (end of graph) according to the UK Met Office (HadSST3 dataset)
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/monitoring/index.html . Based on this red dot and Javier’s black curve, Earth was warmer
than today (i.e. above dashed red line) for much of Holocene time, including the entire Holocene Climatic Optimum.
3. Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and sunspot numbers are both related (non-linearly) to the Sun’s magnetic output (Frölich 2009),
which affects Earth’s temperature (e.g. Svensmark 2007), i.e. increased magnetic flux deflects more cosmic rays, thus fewer clouds
form, hence less incoming solar energy is reflected, instead warming the ocean and, in turn, the air. TSI varies very little over
centuries (<1%; Krivova et al. 2007). In contrast solar-magnetic flux can more than double in 100 years (Lockwood et al. 1999).
4. The match between temperature and solar output is very good (Slide 2), especially in view of potential errors and uncertainties,
e.g. temperature-proxy radiocarbon ages (Marcott graph), +/- c.100 years. Major ‘volcanic winters’ (Wiki) can explain some of the
other mismatches.
5. In the last 10,000 years, Earth’s strongest warming in any multi-century interval began ~1820 and continues today (Slide 1; Higgs
2020b). This ‘Modern Warming’ matches the Sun’s biggest surge of the last 9,000 years, starting ~1700 and culminating in the
Modern Grand Maximum (span 1937-2004; peak magnetic output 1991; Slides 2 & 3; Higgs 2019c). The Sun’s effect on temperature is
delayed ~60 years by ocean thermal inertia (slow circulation and mixing; Higgs 2019c, 2020c).
6. CO2 (Graph 3) began rising steeply ~1850 due to man’s industrial emissions (start of Industrial Revolution). The coincidence
between this rise and Modern Warming was accidental, as shown not only by the good correlation between Earth temperature and
solar output since 10,000BP (Slides 1, 2) but also by two major contrasts between the CO2 graph and the temperature graph (Slide 4):
(A) their great difference in average amplitude of pre-1850AD short-term (decades-centuries) up-down ‘sawteeth’, relative to the
post-1850 final spike’s height (i.e. CO2 sawteeth are very subdued); and (B) the lack of graph-to-graph correlation of these sawteeth.
1800-2020AD strongest warming in 10,000 years due to the Sun, not CO2
Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd, Technical Note 2020-4, 23rd April 2020, amended 17th May 2021
Slide 6. Conclusions & Predictions
Due to the 60-yr time-lag caused by ocean thermal inertia,
global warming will continue until ~2050 (i.e. 60yr after the
1991 solar-magnetic peak; Slide 3 of Higgs 2019d). Cooling will
then begin, and will last at least 30yr (i.e. solar decline from
1991 to date, 2021). Unfortunately a Sun-driven sea-level rise of
~3 metres (sic) by 2100 is inevitable, by Antarctic ice collapse,
likewise a delayed reaction to the Sun’s just-ended Grand
Maximum (Higgs 2019b, 2020a, c).
CO2 is blameless, not responsible for global warming or sea-
level rise (Higgs 2019a).
1800-2020AD strongest warming in 10,000 years due to the Sun, not CO2
Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd, Technical Note 2020-4, 23rd April 2020, amended 17th May 2021
Slide 7. References
Frölich 2009 https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2009/27/aa12318-09/aa12318-09.html
Higgs 2019a https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332245803
Higgs 2019b https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333488770
Higgs 2019c https://www.researchgate.net/publication/336150058
Higgs 2019d https://www.researchgate.net/publication/336937682
Higgs 2020a https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339875642
Higgs 2020b https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340272745
Higgs 2020c https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341078096
Javier 2017 (surname Vinos) https://judithcurry.com/2017/04/30
Krivova et al. 2007 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/41714455
Lockwood et al. 1999 http://www.personal.reading.ac.uk/~ym901336/pdfs/170_Lockwoodetal_nature.pdf
Marcott et al. 2013 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235885717
Solanki et al. 2004 https://www.academia.edu/24429303
Inceoglu et al. 2015 https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2015/05/aa24212-14/aa24212-14.html
Svensmark 2007 https://academic.oup.com/astrogeo/article/48/1/1.18/220765
Usoskin et al. 2014 https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/pdf/2014/02/aa23391-14.pdf
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any citations for this publication.
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any references for this publication.