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El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on fisheries and aquaculture

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Abstract

This FAO Technical Paper synthesizes current knowledge on the impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on fisheries and aquaculture in the context of a changing climate. Fisheries and aquaculture are essential parts of the global food system. The recent discovery that ENSO is far more diverse than previously recognized highlights a pressing need to synthesize the impact of the different ENSO types on fisheries and aquaculture. The overall aim of this Technical Paper is to provide relevant, up-to-date information and help decision-makers identify the most appropriate interventions according to the diversity of ENSO types. In addition, the possible effects of climate change on these sectors can be partly illustrated by the current effects of ENSO events, which are themselves affected by climate change. The Technical Paper describes the diversity of ENSO events (Chapter 2), ENSO forecasting (Chapter 3) and ENSO in the context of climate change (Chapter 4). It includes a global overview and regional assessment of ENSO impact (Chapters 5 and 6) and a focus on coral bleaching and damage to reefs and related fisheries (Chapter 7). Finally, it synthesizes the lessons learned and the perspectives for ENSO and preparedness in a warmer ocean (Chapter 10).
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... This impacts the whole ecosystem leading to a reduced fish biomass potentially influencing the food web structure, causing a high mortality of marine top predators, 27 and also impacting fishery catch. 28,29 In this work, we investigated how climate forcing induced by ENSO in the NHCS, influences MeHg biogeochemistry and concentrations at the top of the marine food web. We hypothesized that the warming conditions and the deepening of the oxycline during El Ninõ events would change the depth at which MeHg is produced, likely decreasing its photodegradation, possibly favoring its production, bioavailability, and concentration further in the food web. ...
... On average, enhanced global biomass of approximately +1.1 million tons are observed during strong La Ninã years. 29 In contrast, EP and extreme El Ninõ events commonly result in reduced global landings, with anomalies of −0.7 to −3.2 million tons depending on the intensity of the event ( Figure 2F). 29 Therefore, strong El Ninõ conditions in 2015−2016 and La Ninã event occurring in 2010−2011 resulted in strong variability of climatic conditions of the Peruvian ecosystem, with SST anomalies of ±3°C, oxycline variability from 20 to 100 m depth and large range of NPP and biomass gradients. ...
... 29 In contrast, EP and extreme El Ninõ events commonly result in reduced global landings, with anomalies of −0.7 to −3.2 million tons depending on the intensity of the event ( Figure 2F). 29 Therefore, strong El Ninõ conditions in 2015−2016 and La Ninã event occurring in 2010−2011 resulted in strong variability of climatic conditions of the Peruvian ecosystem, with SST anomalies of ±3°C, oxycline variability from 20 to 100 m depth and large range of NPP and biomass gradients. ...
... In this study, the ellipsoid calibration used as training data the occurrences records obtained from the warm anomalous phase of ENSO -EN (period 1997-05-01 to 1998-05-31) -and its colder counterpart -LN (period 1998-08-01 to 2000-03-31)- (Fig. 1), defined as very strong EN and strong LN, according to Bertrand et al. (2020). The ellipses in these periods were calibrated to characterize the ecological niche, as much as possible, in which the fish populations could inhabit; such considerations of extreme climate could potentially improve predictions of spatial patterns (Zimmermann et al., 2009). ...
... The eastern Pacific is the most impacted ocean region by ENSO variability and is locally more pronounced in the coasts of Peru and Ecuador (Bertrand et al., 2020;Chavez et al., 2008;Wang and Fiedler, 2006). EN conditions, particularly extreme, are characterized by larger warm anomalies mainly on the coast, as well as a decrease in nutrient supply and primary production off Peru (Espinoza-Morriberón et al., 2017). ...
... During EN 2015/16, although chub mackerel distribution was coastal, it was further from the coast than during EN 1997/98 and showed an aggregation area in the northern zone (7 • S-10 • S). This result may be explained because EN 2015/16 was weaker than the previous one, mainly in coastal warming waters (Bertrand et al., 2020). ...
Article
To understand and characterize the Pacific chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) spatiotemporal distribution in the northern Peruvian Current System, this study characterized the ecological niche using the minimum volume ellipsoid (MVE) approach considering two meteorological conditions jointly: El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN). For this purpose, the species presence records collected by the Peruvian onboard observer program from 1997 to 2018 were used. All presence records were matched with the date (day/month/year) and location (longitude, latitude) of the corresponding oceanographic variables (sea surface temperature [SST], sea surface salinity [SSS], chlorophyll, and oxygen). Also, the future projected climate change effects on chub mackerel spatiotemporal distribution under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios by mid- (2040-2050) and end‐of‐the‐century (2090-2100) were investigated. Ellipsoid evaluations demonstrated that models calibrated with SST and SSS had good performance. Projections for EN conditions predicted areas with high environmental suitability close and along the Peruvian coast. Contrastingly, during LN these areas were extended to the oceanic zone. The projected future scenarios showed that for the RCP 4.5 scenario, environmental suitability maps were similar to those found in LN but with persistent distribution in south-central Peru. For the RCP 8.5 scenario, habitats tended to be coastal. Based on climate refugia –areas where the bulk of the species may aggregate under future environmental change with the potential to re-expand once the stress abates–, the RCP 4.5 scenario did not show changes in the hotspots; conversely, the RCP 8.5 scenario predicted a reduction of around 47% of hotspots from 2040-2050 to 2090-2100 at 10° S-18° S. Finally, the consideration of extreme conditions (EN and LN) in model calibration can potentially generate models with good performance allowing to better characterize species niche when the data is restricted by political boundaries. Nevertheless, further testing must be performed to assert this idea.
... Several studies have analysed the impact of ENSO on fisheries in Peru, mostly focusing on studying effects on the behaviour of marine species. On the one hand, ENSO generates negative effects on the biomass of species important for Peruvian fisheries such as Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) (Niquen & Bouchon, 2004), Macha clam (Mesodesma donacium) (Ortega et al., 2012), jumbo squid (Dosidicus gigas) (Yu et al., 2015) and Peruvian scallop (Argopecten purpuratus) (Bertrand et al., 2020); on the other hand, it also generates positive effects in species such as Peruvian jack mackerel (Trachurus murphyi), longnose anchovy (Anchoa nasus) (Niquen & Bouchon, 2004), octopus (Octopus mimus) and yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) (Bertrand et al., 2020). Likewise, recent studies have analysed the socioeconomic impacts of the El Niño phenomenon on the Peruvian artisanal fisher population. ...
... Several studies have analysed the impact of ENSO on fisheries in Peru, mostly focusing on studying effects on the behaviour of marine species. On the one hand, ENSO generates negative effects on the biomass of species important for Peruvian fisheries such as Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) (Niquen & Bouchon, 2004), Macha clam (Mesodesma donacium) (Ortega et al., 2012), jumbo squid (Dosidicus gigas) (Yu et al., 2015) and Peruvian scallop (Argopecten purpuratus) (Bertrand et al., 2020); on the other hand, it also generates positive effects in species such as Peruvian jack mackerel (Trachurus murphyi), longnose anchovy (Anchoa nasus) (Niquen & Bouchon, 2004), octopus (Octopus mimus) and yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) (Bertrand et al., 2020). Likewise, recent studies have analysed the socioeconomic impacts of the El Niño phenomenon on the Peruvian artisanal fisher population. ...
... Finally, the South was the least vulnerable (0.43) and showed the highest level of adaptive capacity (0.60) and the lowest levels of exposure (0.60) and sensitivity (0.29). At the regional level, the highest levels of exposure, measured by the variability in SST, were observed in the regions of Piura (1.00), Lambayeque (0.89) and La Libertad (1.00), which may explain in part that these regions have been historically the most affected by climate variability phenomena such as ENSO (Bertrand et al., 2020). The highest levels of sensitivity were observed in the North, in the regions of Tumbes (0.64) and Piura (0.56). ...
Article
The aim of this study is to analyse the effects of climate variability on the poverty of artisanal fishers in Peru. First, an index of vulnerability of artisanal fishers in the face of climate variability along the Peruvian coast was calculated. This index consists of three components (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability) and classifies the vulnerability of a study area in a range from 0 to 1. Second, using the generalized propensity score method, the effect of climate variability that occurred in 2015 on the poverty of artisanal fishers in three areas of the Peruvian coast was estimated. This effect is calculated through the variation of the probability of poverty among the artisanal fishers from high to low according to the degree of economic impact. The results confirmed a positive relationship between the calculated vulnerability index and poverty levels; the North was the most vulnerable area (0.67), followed by the Centre (0.61) and the South (0.43). Likewise, the areas with stronger effects of climate variability exhibited greater variation in the probability of poverty (North: 12%, Centre: 11% and South: 4%). Finally, the results show the importance of the adaptive capacity of artisanal fishers in the face of changes in climatic conditions.
... Detecting changes in the stomach content and microbiome composition of important Pacific fisheries that are associated with environmental variability has the potential to greatly inform management of marine resources in this region. El Niño Southern Oscillation is a prominent driver of environmental and climate variability, known to affect the ecological patterns of multiple species in the Pacific (Bertrand et al., 2020). The recent discovery that ENSO is far more diverse than previously recognized highlights a pressing need to identify the impact of ENSO on fisheries and aquaculture (Bertrand et al., 2020;Lehodey et al., 2021). ...
... El Niño Southern Oscillation is a prominent driver of environmental and climate variability, known to affect the ecological patterns of multiple species in the Pacific (Bertrand et al., 2020). The recent discovery that ENSO is far more diverse than previously recognized highlights a pressing need to identify the impact of ENSO on fisheries and aquaculture (Bertrand et al., 2020;Lehodey et al., 2021). Our preliminary data shows there are detectable differences in the stomach content of Katsuwonus pelamis and Thunnus albacares captured in the Pacific associated with capture location and while weak associations were attributed to differing ENSO phases. ...
Article
Full-text available
This preliminary study used DNA metabarcoding to test whether the stomach content and gut microbiome of tuna could be a viable near real-time monitoring tool for detecting composition and change in oceanic ecosystems. The gut content of skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis, n=55) and yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares, n=46) captured in the Pacific Ocean during El Niño Southern Oscillation events (ENSO) between 2015-2017 were examined by high throughput sequencing and complemented by morphological assessments to identify fishes, crustaceans and cephalopods in the stomach content. Gut microbiome was examined solely by high throughput sequencing. Stomach content and gut microbiome were compared between tuna species, ENSO events and capture location using generalised linear models. The full model (tuna species, capture location and interaction with ENSO) best explained fish prey composition, while capture location and ENSO weakly explained the composition of crustaceans and cephalopods. Skipjack and yellowfin tuna captured near coastal areas (Longitude<170°W) showed a greater diversity of prey compared to fish captured in oceanic regions of the Pacific, while Thunnus albacares showed a much more diverse stomach content than K. pelamis (21 fish, eight cephalopods and six crustaceans). Fish captured during La Niña events showed higher prey diversity compared to fish captured during El Niño. Tuna species best explained differences in gut microbiome to the Phylum level, while no model explained gut microbiome differences to the Order or Family level. This preliminary study shows that capture location and ENSO events explained differences in stomach content of K. pelamis and T. albacares, while tuna species best explained gut microbiome assemblages to the Phylum level.
... The anomalous conditions as a consequence of the alterations to the normal patterns of the oceanatmosphere interrelation in the tropical Pacific generate important repercussions on the meteorological conditions, mainly in the Humboldt Current System (Takahashi et al. 2019); these anomalous conditions are generated by recurrent events El Niño (El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO) (Bertrand et al. 2020) and La Niña (Pabón-Caicedo et al. 2017), as well as hot or cold equatorial oceanic Kelvin waves, which are gravity waves modified by the earth's rotation (Mosquera 2014). These events or waves increase the oceanographic variability and affect the biological processes (growth, mortality, reproduction, and size), abundance, and behavior (movements and aggregative level) of the anchoveta , Arias-Schreiber et al. 2011, Moron et al. 2019). ...
Article
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Migrational behavior of anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) in the Northern Humboldt Current System between September 2019 and September 2020 is analyzed. Acoustic, biological, and oceanographic data and information from the several research cruises carried out by the Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE) during this period were considered. The results showed the presence of transitory warm oceanographic events that induced the anchoveta population to make horizontal and vertical migrations in their search for cold conditions, the adult specimens (bigger than 12 cm of total length) retracted near the bottom of the platform being inaccessible to the fishing fleet; after the normalization of environmental conditions, their abundance was accessible to the fishing fleet. Therefore, the fishing activity in the second season of anchoveta fishing in 2019 had a negative impact due to the joint action of environmental events and events of a biological nature (entry of strong recruitment and migration). The anchoveta was preferably found in cold coastal waters that varied in the seasons. In the spring of 2019, it was found in temperatures lower than 22.1°C, in the summer of 2020 at temperatures lower than 23.1°C, and in the winter of 2020 at temperatures lower than 17.2°C; as for, salinity was always found in values lower than 35.2. The strategy of the migratory behavior of the anchoveta concerning its habitat in this period has allowed it to remain in its abundance in the Humboldt Current System, which added to adequate fishing management will allow it to maintain its sustainability.
... Durante las fases cálidas (Niño), las pesquerías de la región se han visto afectadas de diferente forma, ya sea por un desplazamiento o incluso desaparición de los stocks pesqueros (Hernández-Santoro, Landaeta, & Castillo Pizarro, 2018;Miller, 1984), o por la presencia de especies pertenecientes a otras latitudes gracias a los cambios en la temperatura y disponibilidad de alimento (Zeidberg & Robison, 2007). Para las pesquerías de grandes pelágicos como el atún y dorado en el POT, las consecuencias de los cambios ambientales asociados al ENSO han sido indirectas y se relacionaron principalmente con los cambios en la disponibilidad y distribución de presas (Bertrand et al., 2020;Fernández-Álamo & Färber-Lorda, 2006;Kiyofuji et al., Recordando que en el POT los estudios de variaciones climáticas se relacionan principalmente con el efecto del ENSO sobre los recursos pesqueros, los resultados de esta tesis son un complemento importante para el planteamiento de planes de manejo y adaptación frente al cambio climático proyectado a mediano y largo plazo. ...
Thesis
Species distribution models allow for the quantification of the species-environment relationship, with species of commercial interest being the most evaluated. To this group belong Thunnus albacares, Katsuwonus pelamis and Coryphaena hippurus, species that are the basis of different fisheries. These species are characterized by their global distribution and socio-economic benefits to countries. Therefore, it is convenient to analyze whether their distribution ranges and current environmental suitability areas could change with respect to the most extreme climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) projected for 2050 and 2100. To address this, presence records reported by the Colombian Fisheries Observation Program and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, environmental information from Bio-ORACLE and the species distribution model assembly package BIOMOD 2 were used. Under current conditions, the highest suitability zone considers temperatures close to 27°C, salinities of 34 and current velocities of 0.1 m/s. This zone was located between 2 and 4 degrees north latitude, extending from the Colombia-Ecuador transboundary zone, approximately from 82 degrees west longitude to international waters, but was relocated south of the equator according to the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario projected to 2050 and 2100. The results of this study indicate that climate change would significantly affect the potential distribution of commercially important species in the Eastern Tropical Pacific in the future, making it necessary to implement adaptation plans to possible new environmental conditions, which could directly impact the economy and food security of communities that use these fisheries resources.
... While the global population grows, and income levels increase, people are consuming more meat and fish (OECD/FAO, 2018). As most wild fish stocks are fully-or over-exploited (FAO, 2018a(FAO, , 2020, and fisheries are increasingly affected by climate change (Bertrand et al., 2020;, there is a widespread opinion that the greater demand for fish can only be fulfilled by aquaculture. Aquaculture is thus key to delivering both proteins and micronutrients, especially in lowincome countries such as Zambia (Longley et al., 2014). ...
Article
Full-text available
Fish is a key source of income, food, and nutrition in Zambia, although unlike in the past, capture fisheries no longer meet the national demand for fish. Supply shortfalls created an opportunity to develop the aquaculture sector in Zambia, which is now one of the largest producers of farmed fish (Tilapia spp.) on the continent. In its present form, the aquaculture sector exhibits a dichotomy. It comprises, on the one hand, a smallholder sector that mainly produces for and supplies within local markets, and on the other hand, a burgeoning larger-scale commercial sector consisting of a small number of pioneering lead firms who are (re)shaping how the value chain supplies domestic, mainly urban, markets. A notable challenge confronting the development of the aquaculture value chain in Zambia is ensuring that the larger-scale commercial sector can continue to grow and generate economic benefits for the country, while simultaneously safeguarding inclusive and sustainable growth of smallholder production systems. An in-depth, mixed-methods aquaculture value chain study was carried out in Zambia in 2017 that aimed at providing relevant stakeholders with pertinent information on the value chain's contribution to economic growth and its inclusiveness, as well as its social and environmental sustainability aspects. In this article, we present some key findings from the study to shed light on how the sustainability of smallholder production systems could be enhanced while preserving the growth trend of larger producers in an inclusive way. The study found that the value chain is contributing positively towards economic growth in the country. Smallholder farmers classified as “semi-subsistence” and “commercial” face several albeit somewhat different constraints to production, thus influencing their “sustainability” status. Semi-subsistence smallholders achieve positive (yet negligible) profit margins, and their production system is not environmentally sustainable and the value chain that supports them performs sub-optimally on several social markers. The “commercial” smallholder system is more economically viable and environmentally sustainable. The study juxtaposes these findings with those from the analysis of larger pond and cage-based systems to point to a set of key options Government, research, and development organisations could consider to support smallholder farmers and enhance the sustainability of the semi-subsistence smallholder production system in particular, without overlooking the whole system.
... • It may be useful to work with decision-makers and farmers on their needs for and use of forecast and impact information to inform policymakers on ways to release information, so decision-makers can make better use of it [63,73]. • It may be desirable to examine impacts, adaptation possibilities, and benefits in other climate-sensitive areas like aquaculture [137], water management [20], and livestock management [138]. • Future studies could look further into implications for market trading and insurance design [67,68,139]. ...
Article
Ocean-atmospheric phenomena (OAP) have been found to be associated with regional climate variability and, in turn, agricultural production. Previous research has shown that advance information on OAP and its climate implications could provide valuable opportunities to adjust agriculture practices. In this study, we review OAP effects on crop yields, covering both shorter-term El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and longer-term ocean-related decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena, such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Tropical Atlantic Gradient (TAG), and the West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). We review both statistical approaches and simulation models that have been used to assess OAP impacts on crop yields. Findings show heterogeneous impacts across crops, regions, OAP phases, and seasons. Evidence also indicates that more frequent and extreme OAP phases would damage agriculture. However, economic gains could be achieved via adaptation strategies responding to the early release of OAP phase information. Discussions on current knowledge gaps and future research issues are included.
Article
This study has considered anchoveta acoustic data from the Pelagic Resources Hydroacoustic Assessment Surveys carried out by the Peruvian Sea Institute (IMARPE) and free access satellite data (HYCOM and MODIS from the USA) of some oceanographic variables between the period 2011 and 2021, to know the oceanographic conditions, characteristics of schools and size structure in the optimum zone (OZ) and in the physiological stress zone (PSZ), of their total distribution. The OZ is determined by the extent of the Cold Coastal Waters (CCW), and the PSZ is determined by the mixing of waters, to the north by the CCW‐ESW (Equatorial Surface Waters) and to the west between the CCW‐SSW (Subtropical Surface Waters). The range of sea surface temperature and salinity in the PSZ (16.1–25.0°C and 34.65–35.29, respectively) was wider than in the OZ (14.5–24.0°C and 34.65–35.20, respectively), where a higher number of schools were recorded. Our analyses showed that the morphometric and energetic acoustic descriptors of anchoveta schools in the summer were higher during summers compared to springs. In terms of positional characteristics, the mean depth of the schools in the PSZ was slightly greater than in the OZ. The total size structure of anchoveta in the OZ consisted mainly of juvenile specimens (less than 12 cm total length) in the summer of 2011 and 2013–2014 and in the spring between 2014–2017 and 2021. In the PSZ, adult specimens (greater than 12 cm total length) predominated in summer between 2011–2013, 2015, 2018, and 2021 and in spring between 2011–2013, 2015, and between 2018–2021. However, specimens greater than 10 cm in total length were found in the PSZ. Knowledge of the location of this zone away from the coast will allow a high probability of anchoveta capture of adult specimens during fishing periods.
Technical Report
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The overall aim of this project was to develop a roadmap indicating how the production of insect protein for animal feed can be scaled up, taking into consideration the environmental, legal, market and operational constraints. The research outlined in this report was undertaken by ADAS and Michelmores on behalf of WWF and Tesco. The research provides an independent and neutral assessment of how the UK insect biomass value chain could be scaled up to provide processed insect protein meal for the use in farmed animal feed for poultry, pigs, and aquaculture. Available at: https://www.wwf.org.uk/sites/default/files/2021-06/the_future_of_feed_technical_report.pdf
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