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Impact analysis of climate change on rail systems for adaptation planning: A UK case
Abstract
Climate change poses critical challenges for rail infrastructure and operations. However, the systematic analysis of climate risks and the associated costs of tackling them, particularly from a quantitative perspective, is still at an embryonic phase due to the kaleidoscopic nature of climate change impacts and lack of precise climatic data. To cope with such challenges, an advanced Fuzzy Bayesian Reasoning (FBR) model is applied in this paper to understand climate threats of the railway system. This model ranks climate risks under high uncertainty in data and comprehensively evaluates these risks by taking account of infrastructure resilience and specific aspects of severity of consequence. Through conducting a nationwide survey on the British railway system, it dissects the status quo of primary climate risks. The survey implies that the top potential climate threats are heavy precipitation and floods. The primary risks caused by the climate threats are bridges collapsing and bridge foundation damage due to flooding and landslips. The findings can aid transport planners to prioritise climate risks and develop rational adaptation measures and strategies.
... The primary difficulty attributes to the uncertain natural of climate change itself. As it is challenging to collect precise data by an objective approach, a group of researchers (e.g., Yang et al., 2018;Wang et al., 2019bWang et al., , 2020 had conducted a series of climate risk studies by using uncertainty methods, which combined fuzzy set (e.g. Lavasani et al., 2012), Bayesian networks (e.g. ...
... Such methods allow modelling subjective linguistic variables extracting from the stakeholders' opinions by surveys. Accordingly, climate risks were assessed based on their timeframes of climate threats, occurrence frequencies, the severity of consequences, and resilience of infrastructure to climate change with minimum uncertainty and loss of objective information (Wang et al., 2020). ...
... Meanwhile, the uncertainty issues on climate change had been addressed by another group of scholars (e.g., Wang and Zhang, 2018;Randrianarisoa and Zhang, 2019;Wang et al, 2020). In recent years, by studying the scale and timing of investment and relevant issues in climate adaptation in a competitive port market. ...
With the occurrence of more frequent and intense climate change events, transportation systems, including their infrastructure and operations become increasingly vulnerable. However, the existing research related to climate risks, adaptation and planning in the transport sector is still at an embryonic stage. Understanding such, this paper presents a critical review on climate risks, adaptation strategies and planning in the context of road and rail transportation systems. It aims to conduct a rigorous survey, to highlight any significant research gaps not addressed in past studies and to analyse current emerging topics to guide future directions. It critically dissects the selected papers by categorising them into several dimensions to reveal the status quo and potential challenges, including climate risk assessment, transport asset management, climate planning and policy, and adaptation of transport infrastructure to climate change. It will provide valuable references for future research and constructive insights and empirical guidance on climate adaptation, risk analysis, transport planning and other important relevant topics.
... Building upon the previous study's methodology for analysing climate change impacts on the UK's road transportation and rail transportation, this revised approach aims to assess further the trends in climate change and the development of adaptation measures (Wang et al., 2019;2020). The methodology will now incorporate an advanced assessment of the road network's resilience by adding three new sub-items: resilience capacity, the length of disruption period, and recovery cost. ...
... This paper develops a three-layer hierarchy to model new CSC climate risk assessment parameters. They include a single parameter on the top layer, namely Climate Risk Level (RiskLevel), which is influenced by related sources (Yang et al., 2018;Wang et al., 2019;2020). A few parameters are added for a more comprehensive resilience analysis, timeframe (T) is removed from the network, and three scenarios will be run in the experiment sections. ...
Road and railway networks are significantly impacted by climate change, facing various climate extremes on different scales (de Miranda Pinto et al., 2018, Hooper and Chapman, 2012, Nemry and Demirel, 2012)Forecasting the future impacts on these essential transport and logistics links, vital for human lives, goes beyond likelihood and risk severity. Resilience, a key factor, is evaluated uniquely in this study. We employ Bayesian network analysis to assess the strength of road and railway systems in relation to various climate-induced threats under changing climatic conditions. (Zhou et al., 2017). This research model explicitly impacts road networks for 2025, 2030, and 2050 by analysing the likelihood of occurrences, the extent of damage, and overall resilience.Understanding the urgency of these impacts is essential for proactive planning and policymaking. This study, with its comprehensive framework that integrates various factors influencing the resilience of transportation networks, is a proactive step. It highlights the importance of incorporating resilience assessments into infrastructure planning and management, which will help mitigate potential disruptions and ensure the continued functionality and reliability of transport networks in the face of climate change.
... Changes in the climate, difficult terrain, and sand dunes pose a danger to infrastructure, railway systems, and other human and business enterprises. High temperatures cause the rails to stretch and twist due to a lack of separating zones or a design flaw (Wang et al., 2020). At 80-degree Celsius, iron rails normally grow one foot every 1800 linear feet. ...
... The experts linked to the research, ranked creating mixed public-private partnerships and job opportunities as the highest opportunity which is also mentioned in the study of Tayyep The biggest challenges identified by the participants as the environmental threats that may hinder railways are global warming, rugged terrain, and encroaching sand that support the studies of Bouraima et al. (2020), Saif and Khalil (2016), Thornes and Davis (2020), and Wang et al. (2020). The participants have ranked the second strongest challenge as shortage of human resource competencies that is mentioned by Rusakova and Bylkov (2018). ...
Purpose –By analyzing the perceptions and expectations of logistics and transportation experts in Oman, the study aims to get answer whether if Oman is ready for railway transportation and logistics, or not. Design/methodology/approach–The study is descriptive and relied on first-hand quantitative data research. In January 2023 in Oman, the data was obtained from logistics professionals, academics, and governmental and private sector specialists. The questionnaire has been designed in-depth and in-length format based on scientific and specific investigation context to get answer the following research questions:1. What are some of the goals that Oman has set for its railway transportation?2. What are the potential benefits of using railroads for logistics in Oman?3. What are some of the challenges that Oman's railway transportation and logistics face?Findings –The overall interpretation of the data validated the participants' positive attitudes and optimistic thoughts towards Oman's railway logistics. Although the second largest factor is the lasting effect of economic growth, the participants identified environmental risks such as geotechnical qualities, climate, rugged terrain, sand dunes, and temperature as the greatest threat..Discussion –Most participants felt that Public-Private Partnership would be the optimal operator for Oman's railroads. The Omani Government may run participative decision-making mechanisms with stakeholders in logistics. At the early-stage collaborations may facilitate further executive and operative strategic allies of PPP. The study recommends further actions in both academia and policymaking in the light of the findings of empirical research.
... This variability in natural environmental conditions can increase the frequency of severe weather events, such as flooding and heat waves, leading to increased urban infrastructure disruption. [488][489][490] Changes in long-term trends (e.g., a rise in average temperatures, precipitation, sea level) along with the associated natural hazards (e.g., floods, droughts, heatwaves, landslides) can reduce the capacity or efficiency of infrastructure functionality and benefits. These increases and shifts can alter the design life of infrastructure and the effectiveness of its services. ...
... For instance, decreased precipitation can lead to increased water pollution due to a drop in water flows; increased air and water temperatures lead to more rapid evaporation; and a sea level rise could affect both the availability and quality of water supply due to saltwater intrusion into groundwater aquifers and distribution networks. 488 Therefore, new/future infrastructure assets should be prioritized, planned, designed, built, and operated to account for the climate changes that may occur over their lifetimes. Scenario modeling studies demonstrate that the effectiveness of nature-based management strategies depends on future climate conditions, such as the extent of warming, and global wind speed. ...
The sustainability of life on Earth is under increasing threat due to human-induced climate change. This perilous change in the Earth's climate is caused by increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, primarily due to emissions associated with burning fossil fuels. Over the next two to three decades, the effects of climate change, such as heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, storms, and floods, are expected to worsen, posing greater risks to human health and global stability. These trends call for the implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Pollution and environmental degradation exacerbate existing problems and make people and nature more susceptible to the effects of climate change. In this review, we examine the current state of global climate change from different perspectives. We summarize evidence of climate change in Earth’s spheres, discuss emission pathways and drivers of climate change, and analyze the impact of climate change on environmental and human health. We also explore strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation and highlight key challenges for reversing and adapting to global climate change.
... Although there is significant research into climate change, there is less research into the specific impact on transportation infrastructure, and even less on the appropriate adaptations in response. The direct links between changing weather patterns and risk to the railways has been insufficiently modelled, both in the UK and worldwide (Rail Safety and Stand ards Board 2016 (Wang, et al. 2020. Further research will make the network more resili ent in response to the impacts of climate change. ...
... Potential future risks must be fully analyzed, their impacts (both economic and human) calculated, and the interventions necessary to minimize that risk considered. However, there is often incomplete data to carry out an accurate and complete risk assessment (Wang, et al. 2020). ...
... Climate change can cause several physical and operational impacts on railway networks. Common physical impacts mentioned in the literature include track buckling, landslides, coastal erosion, overhead line and signaling failures, erosion and washouts of track materials, corrosion of metal components, cracking, creep, and shrinkage in concrete structures, submergence of tracks, track subsidence, drainage system failures, and switch/crossing malfunctions (Chen & Wang, 2019;Hänsel et al., 2022;Jiang et al., 2015;Liu et al., 2021;Sanchis et al., 2020;Wang et al., 2020). Operational impacts include traffic disruptions, accidents, temporary speed restrictions, and delays. ...
Climate change impacts pose challenges to a dependable operation of railway infrastructure assets, thus necessitating understanding and mitigating its effects. This study proposes a machine learning framework to distinguish between climatic and non-climatic failures in railway infrastructure. The maintenance data of turnout assets from Sweden’s railway were collected and integrated with asset design, geographical and meteorological parameters. Various machine learning algorithms were employed to classify failures across multiple time horizons. The Random Forest model demonstrated a high accuracy of 0.827 and stable F1-scores across all time horizons. The study identified minimum-temperature and quantity of snow and rain prior to the event as the most influential factors. The 24-hour time horizon prior to failure emerged as the most effective time window for the classification. The practical implications and applications include enhancement of maintenance and renewal process, supporting more effective resource allocation, and implementing climate adaptation measures towards resilience railway infrastructure management.
... They often employ methodologies based on empirical relationships that estimate the maximum scour depths based on various parameters including flow velocity, river geometry, bed material and component shape [31,53]. A significant body of academic literature has also focused on predicting scour formation [27,37,38,42,53,54], assessing the risk of scour-related bridge failures [4,10,47,71,79] alongside other hazards such as earthquakes [6,52,64]. Studies have also proposed lifecycle models for assessing the implication of scour formation on the transportation network while considering the impact of climate-related uncertainties [63,73]. ...
Scour-induced failures of bridges pose a global challenge, leading to significant economic and service losses. Compounded by infrequent inspections and inadequate consideration of hydro-geological factors in current scour risk assessments, this issue is particularly pressing in the context of climate change and associated hazards. Addressing the imperative for enhanced infrastructure resilience, this study introduces a comprehensive framework for scour risk management. Utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) datasets and applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to assess various weighted factors affecting scour risk, we have systematically mapped information layers encompassing structural, riverine, geological, and flood risk. Our investigation focuses on the railway network in southeast England, identifying scour-susceptible bridges that can be prioritized for detailed inspections. Compared to the existing scores, the proposed scour risk scores for approximately 30 railway bridges in the region were adjusted, with 22 transitioning from medium to high priority. Our proposed methodology, exemplified by this case study, offers asset managers deeper insights into the determinants of scour susceptibility of bridges and facilitates informed decision-making for prioritizing scour-mitigation measures across the network.
... [10] found that complex and harsh climate will reduce the transportation efficiency of the road system. Moreover, the main risk caused by climate risk is the damage to the transportation base caused by bridge collapse and landslides [51]. ...
... [10] found that complex and harsh climate will reduce the transportation efficiency of the road system. Moreover, the main risk caused by climate risk is the damage to the transportation base caused by bridge collapse and landslides [51]. ...
... To promote the understanding of climate change among engineers and planners, some researchers have discussed how railways and roads would be affected by climate change (Baker, et al., 2010;Davies et al., 2008;Kostianaia et al., 2021;Tang et al., 2018;Vardon, 2015). Adaptation measures are also proposed, including strategic adaptation frameworks (Kim et al., 2019;Nolte et al., 2016;Regmi & Hanaoka, 2011;Rattanachot et al., 2015;Wang, Qu, et al., 2020) and cost-benefit assessments of adaptation measures (Chinowsky & Arndt, 2012;Kwiatkowski et al., 2013;Nemry & Demirel, 2012). Although many studies have been performed to quantify the impacts of climate change on transport infrastructure and adaptation costs, most of the existing works are limited to specific types of disasters and specific regions, with distinct regional characteristics and non-transferable experiences. ...
Transport infrastructures built on historical experience are expected to face multiple threats under climate change, especially the continuous interruptive losses and additional maintenance costs caused by more intense or frequent record‐breaking extreme climate events. In this study, we investigated the change in the exposure of global rail and road infrastructures to eight record‐breaking meteorological hazards using the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate data, including extreme temperature and extreme precipitation. Our findings suggest that higher extreme heat and increasing thaw‐freezing index ratio pose great threats to global rail and road infrastructures. The expected annual exposures of these two hazards are 4 and 2 times the average exposure level of eight hazards, respectively. Moreover, the exposure rapidly increases due to sharply increasing drought and heavy rain compound events as emissions growth and development accelerate, rising from 7% to 18% in eight hazard exposures. Sustainable and lower radiative forcing pathways would contribute to the exposure mitigation, with the peak exposure of eight hazards under the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP1‐2.6 scenarios averaging 29% and 52% lower, respectively, than that under the SSP3‐7.0, which is an extreme scenario we may be on track for under current global efforts. However, the fact that most areas will still be affected by multiple hazards is probably unavoidable. Thus, in parallel with global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we recommend that the transport sector incorporate locally appropriate climate change adaptation strategies to avoid losses induced by record‐breaking extreme climate events.
... Railway infrastructure is exposed and vulnerable to extreme weather (Lindgren et al 2009, Network Rail 2015, Koks et al 2019, and with rising global surface temperatures projected to further increase and worsen the frequency and scale of extreme weather events (IPCC 2021(IPCC , 2022b, there is a growing need for the rail industry to adapt to the impacts of currently-faced weather events, and the conditions anticipated in future climate conditions (Davies et al 2014, Marteaux 2016. Notwithstanding a rapid growth in literature on climate change impacts on transport infrastructure and operations, research on climate threats and subsequent adaptation approaches for the rail industry is scant (OECD 2018, Wang et al 2020. The ability of railways to maintain operations during extreme weather conditions and recover from these quickly is crucial to ensure the continued provision of safe and dependable services (Koks et al 2019, Nolte n.d.). ...
Nature-based solutions (NbS) have been identified as sustainable adaptation measures which could be applied to rail infrastructure in response to the impacts of climate change whilst also providing highly valued co-benefits. To date, however, only a limited number of examples of their use have been found in rail, and there has been little investigation into barriers to their uptake. We use an online questionnaire to examine rail industry professionals’ knowledge, experience and thoughts in relation to perceived and/or actual obstacles to the use of NbS as climate change adaptation (CCA) measures for railways, and establish what could aid their wider implementation. This research confirms multiple examples of NbS being used in rail which are not included in the literature, and identifies a lack of awareness of NbS as the largest perceived barrier to their uptake. Education on and promotion of NbS in the industry will therefore be key to its successful widespread deployment. Policy, standards, and client specification were viewed as the best vehicles to enable greater NbS uptake; rail NbS case studies are therefore recommended as means of gathering robust evidence and examples to inform the development of these instruments. Demonstration sites could be used to inform rail stakeholders and communities to garner wider support for the concept. These may also be valuable to the work of researchers and practitioners investigating the wider development and deployment of NbS as sustainable CCA measures across wider (non-rail) sectors and scenarios.
... A 1% decrease in climate risk (increase in LCRIND) leads to an increase in entrepreneurship by 0.007% at the median. If there is a lower climate risk, it helps increase the consistency and stability of plans (Wang et al., 2020). ...
The critiques on modernism have challenged the current set of rules of free market societies where demands are fulfilled without considering the adverse consequences of the environment. The business environment has yet to transform to explore modern innovative entrepreneurial solutions to create harmony in the natural ecosystem. Recent studies have separately investigated the role of business growth in economic development and its negative influence on the global environment. This study analyzes global data by analyzing global data to develop a nonlinear relationship between climate change and entrepreneurship. Based on the disruptive innovation theory, we argue that economic activities cause a rise in CO2 emissions and create opportunities for entrepreneurship. Data has been taken from 45 countries to analyze the impact of climate change on entrepreneurship. The results show a nonlinear relationship exists between climate change and entrepreneurship at the global level. Policy developments are required for a sustainable environment through entrepreneurship.
... were modelled by simulating the causal chain between scour hazard and climate change [77]. More recently, Wang et al. [31] surveyed the critical climate risks in the UK rail network, using fuzzy Bayesian reasoning (FBR) for risk prioritisation. Damage of the bridge foundation and collapse were highlighted as the pivotal risks owing to flooding and landslips. ...
Climate change has threatened the infrastructure, operation, policymaking, and other pivotal aspects of transport systems with the accelerating pace of extreme weather events. While a considerable amount of research and best practices have been conducted for transport adaptation to climate change impacts, there is still a wide gap in the systematic assessment of climate risks on all-round transport modes (i.e., road, rail, sea, and air) with a comprehensive review and a quantitative scientific framework. This study aimed to critically review studies on how the transport sector has adapted to the impacts posed by climate change since the dawn of the 21st century. To support climate risk assessment in comprehensive transport systems, we developed a Climate Change Risk Indicator (CCRI) framework and applied it to the case of the British transport network. Focusing on a multi-modal transport system, this offers researchers and practitioners an invaluable overview of climate adaptation research with the latest tendency and empirical insights. Meanwhile, the developed CCRI framework elaborates a referable tool that enables decision-makers to employ objective data to realise quantitative risk analysis for rational transport adaptation planning.
... Landslides, floods, and cyclones are the major climate disasters affecting Indian railway infrastructure [9,10], which only account for a small proportion of disasters due to the diverse geography of India [11]. Those climate events damage railway tracks, bridges, and railway stations [12,13]. Apart from direct physical damages, those climate disasters significantly affect railway infrastructure [14], by disrupting railway services, which affects supply chains, resulting in delayed delivery of goods and increased transportation costs [15], as well as economic losses for the railways and the wider economy [16]. ...
Climate disasters have become increasingly frequent in India, severely affecting the railway infrastructure every year. Physical damages to railway tracks, bridges, and signaling systems, caused by floods, cyclones, and landslides, are well documented. However, the impact of these disasters on the railway infrastructure was beyond direct physical damages. This paper aimed to explore the impact of climate disasters on railway infrastructure in Northeast India using case study approach. Three cases were studied to analyse the impact of climate disasters on railway infrastructure, including geological disasters and extreme weather. Infrastructure development and operation of railway transport system in Assam, Mizoram, and Manipur proved to be challenging, especially when coping with natural disasters, such as floods, landslides, and earthquakes. This paper found that disruption of railway services was associated with geo-physical structure of the region, which triggered the disaster vulnerability. The results showed that climate disasters had a significant impact on railway infrastructure in Northeast India in many aspects. Formulation and implementation of strategic policies might reduce the disaster risks. Therefore, policymakers and Ministry of Railways, Government of India should consider this possible probability approach over environmental determinism.
... A survey of the British railway systems was made in order to identify which aspects of climate change should be prioritised for adaptation planning. The study found heavy precipitation and floods were the top potential climate threats (Wang et al., 2020). They also found that since the publication of the 2011 UK adaptation reports, there was little evidence of adaptation measures being implemented across the country. ...
The current La Niña phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation has brought multiple flooding disasters across many regions of Australia. For Australasian rail infrastructure operators this brought major disruptions to rail operations due to hazardous conditions, recovery and remedial works. The purpose of this paper is twofold ; firstly a scoping study is described which analyses the problem from an Australasian-centric perspective, and secondly a review around the factors affecting and affected by flooding in rail infrastructure systems is presented. A tailored causal loop diagram model of the interrelationships between the various nodes and overall behaviour of the system was derived for the rail infrastructure system of interest and its ecosystem, from which a high-level causal factors analysis highlighted potential levers for change that will support infrastructure owners and operators' future efforts in designing for resilience and climate change adaptation.
... Local scour also reduces the lateral capacity of the foundations and induces permanent settlement and rotation (Ciancimino et al., 2022). The increased risk of bridge scour due to extreme precipitation events have been highlighted as a key climate risk to the UK's transport sector (Wang et al., 2020). It is predicted that climate change will make 1 in 20 bridges in the UK at high risk of failure by 2080 (Dawson et al., 2018). ...
Riverine bridges are under a substantial threat of scour due to the magnitude and frequency of floods arising due to climate change. Infrequent inspections, inadequate data on foundation depths, and the lack of consideration of hydrologic and climate parameters often result in uncertainties within current scour risk assessments. This paper presents an approach for assessing the risk progression of local scour in peak flow conditions that consider uncertainties associated with location, downscaling of climate predictions, and hydrologic, hydraulic and scour prediction models. A rational scour risk rating based on warning time to failure is introduced that can provide a useful addition to the existing bridge condition indexes. The case study on a set of railway bridges in Southeast England shows that climate change could accelerate the scour risk progression, even in the low-emission scenario. The approach and results form a vital basis for scour risk mitigation and climate adaptation planning.
... Considering the stakeholders of passenger ship emergency response, as well as the needs of scientific research, the domain experts are selected from the manager of passenger shipping companies, officer of maritime search and rescue coordination agencies, captain of passenger ships, navigational officers of cruise ship and researcher in the field of passenger ship safety, whose details are shown below. All experts have extensive working or research experience in the field, based on similar studies [52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60], it is believed that the number and authority of experts are suitable for this study. ...
In maritime transport, evacuation, escape and rescue play a crucial role in protecting people's lives when a passenger ship is involved in a serious accident. The study aims to develop a new method to identify hazards, quantify and rank the associated risks in the process of Human Evacuation from Passenger Ships (HEPS). Firstly, based on extensive literature review and marine accident investigation reports, the risk factors affecting passenger ship evacuation were analysed and identified, and an analysis framework based on Human, Ship, Environment and Organization (HSEO) for HEPS was proposed. Secondly, a risk assessment model was proposed to quantify and rank risk factors in the process of HEPS. Finally, a large-scale evacuation drill of a cruise ship was taken as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed evaluation model, and accuracy of the results. The results reveal that (1) evacuation decision, operation of Life-Saving Appliances (LSAs) are the main risks affecting the safety of HEPS; (2) the behaviours of passengers have a relatively lower risk priority; and (3) future HEPS research should focus on the development of a multi-attribute decision system to address the issue on when to evacuate and when to abandon a ship.
... It can thus be concluded that governmental bodies have a sense of risks and challenges posed by climate change and require to both boost and adjust railway industry to them. However, there is increasing concern that political efforts are being disadvantaged by railway stakeholders because of their poor awareness of climate change impacts, shortage of capital investment and time, etc. (see for instance surveys' results conducted by Garmabaki et al. (2021), Palin et al (2021), Wang et al. (2020)). Evangelista et al. (2017) study suggests a weak link may exist between global supply chains and railway undertakings on small networks. ...
The EU sets ambitious climate and energy goals for 2030, or so-called European Green Deal, in compliance with the new global framework for sustainable development adopted by the UN General Assembly on September 25, 2015. The Green Deal is accompanied by legislative acts ensuring that both public and private funding depend significantly on the sustainability of economic activity. The definition and classification of sustainable activities are embedded in the EU Taxonomy Regulation. The purpose of this study is to find out how the stakeholders of railway sector perceive, react to, and feel about the Green Deal policy measures and approaches. After investigation of the relevant literature and compiling a structured questionnaire, persons involved in the operation of the railway sector (railway transport policy makers; railway undertakers and railway infrastructure managers) were convened and a focus group was conducted. This article describes the results of the focus group and identifies future directions for design thinking research on market responses to government interventions in supply chain operations.
... Atualmente, há uma tendência crescente na elaboração de estudos -entretanto ainda escassos -para avaliar e documentar os impactos da mudança climática na infraestrutura de transporte (WANG et al., 2020a(WANG et al., , 2020bVAJJARAPU & VERMA, 2021), fornecendo orientações sobre os tipos de impactos potenciais, bem como analisando possíveis estratégias para adaptação a esses impactos em suas políticas públicas, planejamento e projetos (MALLICK et al., 2016;WANG et al., 2019). A adaptação é uma resposta necessária e indispensável para diminuir os impactos climáticos dinâmicos e os riscos climáticos mais frequentes e rigorosos previstos para ocorrerem nos próximos anos (VAJJARAPU & VERMA, 2021). ...
A infraestrutura de transporte rodoviário é um dos ativos que mais sofre e continuará sofrendo com os impactos da mudança climática, tendo em vista o prosseguimento do aquecimento global. Notadamente, as redes de transporte são essenciais para a economia e a sociedade e sua adaptação à mudança climática é necessária. Nesse sentido, este artigo tem como objetivo identificar os principais impactos de ameaças climáticas na infraestrutura de transporte rodoviário. Durante a revisão da literatura (fundamentada em buscas diretas em bases de dados e em buscas documentais), foi possível identificar cerca de 60 potenciais impactos das 12 ameaças climáticas analisadas, que acarretam prejuízos de diferentes magnitudes que vão desde danos mais superficiais no pavimento até colapso da plataforma rodoviária. Além disso, considerações importantes sobre medidas de adaptação são realizadas com atenção especial à Análise de Risco Climático e uma maior conscientização e engajamento de partes interessadas.
... Roads and railways are sensitive to climate-related events such as intense rainfall and flooding causing landslides, damaged bridge foundations, overloaded track drainage, flooded tracks and derailment risks, already resulting in high costs [1][2][3][4]. The costs are expected to increase as extreme weather events will become more frequent and severe due to climate change [5]. ...
Severe accidents and high costs associated with weather-related events already occur in today’s climate. Unless preventive measures are taken, the costs are expected to increase in future due to ongoing climate change. However, the risk reduction measures are costly as well and may result in unwanted impacts. Therefore, it is important to identify, assess and prioritize which measures are necessary to undertake, as well as where and when these are to be undertaken. To be able to make such evaluations, robust (scientifically based), transparent and systematic assessments and valuations are required. This article describes a framework to assess the cause-and-effect relationships and how to estimate the costs and benefits as a basis to assess and prioritize measures for climate adaptation of roads and railways. The framework includes hazard identification, risk analysis and risk assessment, identification, monetary and non-monetary evaluation of possible risk reduction measures and a step regarding distribution-, goal- and sensitivity analyses. The results from applying the framework shall be used to prioritize among potential risk reduction measures as well as when to undertake them.
... Phase 1: Acceptance of settings Awareness: Among the authors of the literature considered, there is an awareness of the importance of climate change and its influence on transport operations (e.g. Hayes et al., 2019;Morris, 2020;Wang, T. et al., 2020a). Climate change effects, such as high temperatures, strong winds and rising sea water levels, predominantly have negative effects on transport operations (e.g. ...
Transport operations are climate sensitive. Despite this, scientific literature and corporate practice present little evidence on how corporate actors use climate adaptation measures to prepare their transport operations for climate change. This paper explores two research questions: How can the acceptance among corporate decision-makers towards climate adaptation measures for their transport operations be explained? Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior and the Diffusion of Innovations we develop a theoretical framework for dealing with climate adaptation measures for transport operations (step 1). We support the use of this framework through a literature review (1989–2020) (step 2) and semi-structured interviews with German companies that have implemented best practice measures (step 3). The results show that the handling of climate adaptation measures for transport operations can be described in three acceptance phases: acceptance of attitude, action, and use. We conclude that these phases determine the approaches required for promoting climate change adaptation.
... A relevância desse estudo está no fato de que, embora haja um amplo conhecimento de como o setor de transporte urbano pode contribuir para a mudança climática por meio de emissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa (GEE), refletido nas medidas de mitigação, pouca atenção tem-se dado aos impactos potenciais e às medidas de adaptação da mudança climática nos sistemas de transporte terrestre (SUAREZ et al., 2005;WANG et al., 2020). Destacase ainda que este estudo está alinhado aos Objetivos do Desenvolvimento Sustentável (ODS) da Agenda 2030 para Desenvolvimento Sustentável da Conferência das Nações Unidas, mais especificamente aos ODS 9 -Indústria, inovação e infraestrutura, ODS11 -Cidades e comunidades sustentáveis e ODS13 -Combate às alterações climáticas (UNITED NATIONS, 2015). ...
O setor de transporte terrestre, seja ele rodoviário ou ferroviário, está exposto a riscos acarretados pela mudança climática, que pode causar sérios danos à infraestrutura, com a redução da vida útil do ativo. Dessa forma, tornase cada vez mais necessário o desenvolvimento de estudos que busquem identificar os principais impactos da mudança climática na infraestrutura de transporte terrestre. Nesse sentido, este artigo tem como objetivo, por meio de revisão bibliográfica com abordagem bibliométrica, realizar um apanhado geral dos principais aspectos norteadores do assunto sob investigação, destacando os principais impactos nas infraestruturas rodoviária e ferroviária, bem como alguns pontos de atenção quanto às estratégias para medidas de adaptação. Os resultados mostram que o tema está crescendo ao longo dos anos, com artigos sendo publicados principalmente em países como Estados Unidos, China e Reino Unido, com participação ainda pequena do Brasil. Além disso, constata-se que para cada tipo de ameaça climática, tem-se uma série de potenciais impactos que devem ser analisados caso a caso, de acordo com as particularidades da região em estudo, considerando uma visão sistêmica de todas as partes interessadas.
Climate change has led to more frequent and severe extreme weather events which impact critical infrastructure networks such as railway and power systems. Although our infrastructure networks are interdependent, the analysis to understand the impact of weather events on infrastructure systems is usually performed in sector specific silos. Here we present a methodology to examine how the same weather events affect different infrastructure sectors to understand cross-sectoral impact of extreme weather for interconnected regional infrastructure. We use fragility modelling to examine the impact of temperature and rainfall on power and rail system failures using the West Midlands as a case study. The results demonstrate that the impact of temperature is broadly consistent across both infrastructure networks, showing less impact until specific upper and lower thresholds are passed; these thresholds are similar for the different infrastructure networks evaluated however railway infrastructure is impacted more from lower temperatures. A growing correlation between the number of faults on power and railway systems is also found for both rainfall and temperature, indicating the value in coordinating preparation and planning efforts. For infrastructure operators and owners, regional resilience forums, and other decision-makers, this study provides an approach to assess the regional impact of extreme weather across multiple infrastructure sectors. The results give useful insight to inform the allocation of resources in response to extreme weather events.
Impact of climate change on railway transport manifests in a variety of consequences, such as rail buckling, rail flooding, expansion of swing bridges, overheating of electrical equipment and its damage, bridge scour, failure of earthworks, ground settlement, pavement deterioration, damage to sea walls, coastal erosion of tracks and earthworks, and an increased number of railway accidents in general. Such impacts can cause considerable disruption of railway operations and lead to substantial financial expenses for repair of the railway infrastructure. Therefore, it is crucial to include adaptation strategies already in the design phase of the railway construction to ensure stability and integrity of the railway operations. This paper provides a literature review of adaptation considerations in Canada, China and Sweden and discusses climate change challenges that these countries face in their railway systems. In conclusion, the authors provide recommendations for adaptation approaches based on the reviewed international experience which can be useful for policymakers and managers of railway companies.
This Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report provides a comprehensive and transparent assessment of the literature on climate change mitigation. The report assesses progress in climate change mitigation options for reducing emissions and enhancing sinks. With greenhouse gas emissions at the highest levels in human history, this report provides options to achieve net zero, as pledged by many countries. The report highlights for the first time the social and demand-side aspects of climate mitigation, and assesses the literature on human behaviour, lifestyle, and culture, and its implications for mitigation action. It brings a wide range of disciplines, notably from the social sciences, within the scope of the assessment. IPCC reports are a trusted source for decision makers, policymakers, and stakeholders at all levels (international, regional, national, local) and in all branches (government, businesses, NGOs). Available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Globally, the need for railways to adapt to the impacts of climate change is increasing rapidly. Nature-based Solutions (NbS) have been identified as potential climate change adaptation (CCA) options for rail infrastructure; however, the limited number of examples of their application on railways highlights that many factors still need to be considered to enable their wider implementation. This study identifies barriers to NbS uptake by the rail industry through a systematic literature review, categorising them into seven key themes, whilst also considering potential tools to facilitate their uptake. The ongoing development of NbS standards and guidance is confirmed as a means to resolve the barriers likely to be faced. A framework to support the uptake of NbS in the rail industry is presented and discussed in the context of the existing literature, with climate change risk assessments being recognised as the entry point for CCA in rail infrastructure management.
Global maritime supply chain (MSC) faces increasing risks of uncertainty in the post COVID-19 era, ports disruptions and congestion are becoming common. To ensure high reliability of container shipping network, this paper study on the issue of locating hub ports and allocating non-hub ports (spokes) to hubs, meanwhile backup hub ports. An extended container shipping hub-and-spoke network design problem (HSN) is investigated, considering the failure and congestion of hubs, a 0–1 nonlinear programming model is developed for minimizing the transportation cost. Furthermore, we simulate container shipping network using Asia-Europe trade data, and propose the approach of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to solve the model. The experimental results show that path replacement cost and congestion cost affect the network design to a great extent, and backup hub ports could improve the reliability of global container shipping networks for capacity scheduling and allocation. This study can provide certain useful managerial insights for the liner company's daily operation, and design flexible container shipping HSN to ensure maximum efficiency after the COVID-19 irruption.
The transport sector fulfils crucial economic and social functions with railways being instrumental in the safe, efficient, and reliable movements of people to their destinations and goods to market. One of the most critical vulnerabilities in the railway transport system is the low flexibility of both infrastructure and operations in the event of disturbances including those caused by extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, storm surges and temperature extremes. With the frequency and intensity of such events being projected to increase, the failure to proactively consider the impacts of a changing climate on new and existing infrastructure raises the possibility of increased service disruption and adverse economic impacts as climate change progresses. Nature-based solutions (NbS) present long-lasting, cost-effective and environmentally sustainable climate change adaptation (CCA) options. However, as an effective alternative or complement to grey (engineered) solutions, they are still in their infancy, especially within the railway sector. To date very few studies have investigated the role of NbS for CCA in the railway transport system. Recognising the importance of the rail industry's need to adapt its infrastructure to accommodate current weather extremes and a changing climate, this review paper examines NbS being used as CCA measures both in the rail context, and in non-rail contexts which may be transferable to the rail sector. Our review demonstrates that there are significant knowledge gaps that may hinder the uptake of NbS in the rail environment which warrant further research to support the inclusion of NbS as viable CCA options for rail infrastructure. Better understanding of these issues is required for the development of rail sector specific guidance and will enable better design, implementation, and dissemination of NbS as credible alternatives or complements, and more sustainable CCA measures.
Railway infrastructure is vulnerable to extreme weather events such as elevated temperature, flooding, storms, intense winds, sea level rise, poor visibility, etc. These events have extreme consequences for the dependability of railway infrastructure and the acceptable level of services by infrastructure managers and other stakeholders. It is quite complex and difficult to quantify the consequences of climate change on railway infrastructure because of the inherent nature of the railway itself. Hence, the main aim of this work is to qualitatively identify and assess the impact of climate change on railway infrastructure with associated risks and consequences. A qualitative research methodology is employed in the study using a questionnaire as a tool for information gathering from experts from several municipalities in Sweden, Swedish transport infrastructure managers, maintenance organizations, and train operators. The outcome of this questionnaire revealed that there was a lower level of awareness about the impact of climate change on the various facets of railway infrastructure. Furthermore, the work identifies the challenges and barriers for climate adaptation of railway infrastructure and suggests recommended actions to improve the resilience towards climate change. It also provides recommendations, including adaptation options to ensure an effective and efficient railway transport service.
Due to increased extreme weather events, climate adaptation has become an essential issue to be addressed by all transport infrastructures, including airports. This paper aims to develop a Climate Resilience Indicator (CRI) framework for assessing airport climate resilience, which for the first time, considers: climate exposure, vulnerability and adaptive capacity simultaneously and advances the development of climate risk analysis of airports to a point where their adaptation and resilience can be quantified under uncertainty in data. Climate-related data was collected from multiple sources to evaluate an airport's performance against each indicator. An evidential reasoning (ER) approach is used to evaluate each airport by integrating all the indicators to derive its final CRI score. The findings provide valuable insights into how urgently an airport needs to deal with climate change and reveal information to help with resource allocation for different airports nationally through proactive adaptation planning.
A mudança climática representa desafios críticos para a infraestrutura e as operações ferroviárias; entretanto, os estudos sobre a temática ainda carecem de pesquisas relacionadas. Nesse sentido, este artigo tem como propósito realizar uma revisão da literatura por meio de buscas diretas em bases de dados e buscas documentais em relatórios de importantes organismos científicos para identificação dos principais impactos na infraestrutura de transporte ferroviário de ameaças intensificadas pela mudança climática com prosseguimento do aquecimento global, ademais, são realizadas algumas considerações sobre medidas de adaptação. Os resultados mostram que para cada tipo de ameaça climática podem ser elencados uma série de possíveis impactos que devem ser levados em consideração de acordo sua área de abrangência e intensidade e, portanto, uma avaliação da mudança climática requer uma análise mais detalhada da rede e dos ativos sob estresse, devendo considerar assim as peculiaridades locais, as ações de governança e o orçamento disponibilizado à implantação das medidas de adaptação para ajudar a minimizar o risco ou a gravidade desses impactos.
Rapid development of maritime transportation networks meets international trade demands while rendering them in high risk and disruption concerns particularly at ports being the bottlenecks of the whole flows. Port operations calls for an effective approach to assess ports vulnerability and to ensure the resilience of their associated maritime supply chains (MSC). However, traditional quantitative risk analysis reveals challenges due to data incompleteness and ambiguity, and operational and environmental uncertainty when being applied in ports vulnerability analysis. This paper aims to develop a novel port vulnerability assessment (PVA) framework, which can guide and realise a standardised vulnerability analysis process for the ports from different geographies involving in the same MSC and hence the resources can be better managed from a global network level for optimal resilience of the chain. It is especially important for the shipping and port industries which are in nature international and desires strong international uniform standardization. The fuzzy theory, evidential reasoning (ER) approach, and expected utility theory are combined in a holistic way to form the proposed PVA framework. The new framework is validated and demonstrated by using a case study in which five key ports along an established MSC in China are investigated. The findings can be used as a stand along method to compare the vulnerability levels of the ports in an MSC and/or integrated with decision optimisation methods for rational safety resource distribution from a supply chain perspective.
With the accelerating pace of climate change, there has been no scarcity of research, in recent years, that assess climate risks and cost-effectiveness of adaptation measures in the transport sector. Nevertheless, existing literature associated with adaptation planning for climate change is still at an embryonic stage with little attention on certain potential dilemmas. Understanding such, this paper focuses on the question of how to respond to the barriers in climate adaptation planning in transport systems. This is achieved mainly through reviewing the literature in transport adaptation to climate change impacts to summarize eights conditions (potential barriers) that the shortage of those might lead to the failure of climate adaptation planning. Next, those conditions are examined by a historical case study between 2014 and 2015 on the Canadian port of Montreal's experience in tackling the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River's dropping water level. The findings, via semi-structured interviews with affiliated senior experts, closely mirror the enablers influencing the success of a climate adaptation plan, revealing the impediments and opportunities in the existing and future planning. It offers constructive recommendations on how to improve the port of Montreal’s, and ports and transport infrastructures in general, process and practice of adaptation planning. The study strives to bridge the research gaps and provide decision-makers with a novel thinking pattern and workable recommendations from design, implementation to the reconstruction of adaptation planning and facilitate a paradigm shift in broader sustainable transport management.
This paper aims to develop a novel model to assess the risk factors of maritime supply chains by incorporating a fuzzy belief rule approach with Bayesian networks. The new model, compared to traditional risk analysis methods, has the capability of improving result accuracy under a high uncertainty in risk data. A real case of a world leading container shipping company is investigated, and the research results reveal that among the most significant risk factors are transportation of dangerous goods, fluctuation of fuel price, fierce competition, unattractive markets, and change of exchange rates in sequence. Such findings will provide useful insights for accident prevention.
The Belt and Road (B&R) initiative was introduced by the Chinese government to promote the worldwide economic development and multilateral cooperation between China and the associated countries. As a crucial part of global supply chains, transportation plays a key role to ensure the implementation of the B&R. Safety is one of the issues with great importance in transportation research. However, its foci have been expanded from traditional risk through security to resilience and sustainability. Resilience has attracted considerable interests from both researchers and practitioners across different research domains in recent years. Various studies have been conducted on transportation resilience from different perspectives. Consequently, different definitions have been developed to define and describe resilience. This paper presents a systematic review on transportation resilience with emphasis on its definitions, characteristics, and research methods applied in different transportation systems/contexts. It aims to figure out what transportation resilience is and what kind of essential characters it usually has. More importantly, research challenges are analysed and a future research agenda on the resilience of transportation systems is proposed. This paper will provide comprehensive insights into understanding the transportation resilience, as well as establish new horizons for relevant research topics within the context of the B&R.
Adaptation to climate change impacts is a key research topic in business ethics that poses substantial implications on the good lives of human beings. The commercial port sector is a highly relevant study focus with its pivotal roles in supply chains and international trade. Hence, it is important to investigate whether the port planning system and practice is appropriate in tackling climate change impacts. But beforehand, we must thoroughly understand the attitude and behaviors of port planners and operators on ports’ climate adaptation planning. Through a survey towards 21 ports (seaports and dry ports) in Canada, the paper investigates the attitude and behaviors of port planners and operators on ports’ climate adaptation planning. Towards the end, we propose a new approach so as to enable port stakeholders to carry out climate adaptation planning effectively. The paper offers important insight to researchers to investigate the ways in developing effective climate adaptation plans and practice for ports and other business sectors.
climate change impacts such as an increase in mean temperature, change in precipitation patterns and sea level rise are affecting regional road transportation network in Atlantic Canada. These impacts cause direct and indirect economic consequences for the network and regional economy. Currently a dynamic general equilibrium model (GEM) is being constructed. In this paper, basic principles of the GEM are discussed and the model's architecture is presented. Climate change impacts are regarded as productivity shocks, and their dynamics is analyzed on the basis of advanced time series techniques. Further these impacts will be imposed on a dynamic regional economic system expressed via our Dynamic GEM to trace their economic consequences.
Research scientists collaborated with federal land managers of two national parks and two national forests to conduct a climate change vulnerability assessment and to identify adaptation strategies for a transportation network covering 28,900 km of roads and trails in north-central Washington, U.S.A. The assessment employed observations of sensitivity and response to climatic variability, downscaled climate projections, literature reviews, current management policies and practices, expert knowledge, and stakeholder engagement. Primary pathways for climate impacts focused on projected increases in extreme high flows and flooding, elevated winter soil moisture and landslide hazards, and loss of snowpack. The biggest impacts to roads and trails are expected from temperature-induced changes in hydrologic regimes that enhance autumn flooding and reduce spring snowpack. Projected higher winter soil moisture caused by changes in seasonal precipitation and snow accumulation could reduce slope stability. Earlier snowmelt may lengthen the snow-free season for visitor use and agency operations. Infrastructure age, design, maintenance, location, use, and limited redundancy along with funding policies and management, influence the sensitivities of the transportation system. Vulnerabilities were identified based on when and where these sensitivities to changes in climate may emerge. Adaptation strategies and tactics identified to address these vulnerabilities included: upgrading stream crossing and drainage design, changing use and maintenance , relocating or closing roads and trails, modifying funding policies, and expanding pubic
The questionnaire survey is one of the most commonly used methods of data collection in public management research. These surveys often provide the information used to measure both the independent and dependent variables in an analysis. However, this introduces the risk of common method bias—a serious methodological challenge that has not received much attention as a distinct topic in public management research. We discuss the challenge of common method bias in relation to public management studies and illustrate the problem using an analysis of intrinsic work motivation and sickness absence. Thereafter, we discuss solutions for reducing common method bias when it is not possible to use different methods.
Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and coastal storms will likely increase the vulnerability of infrastructure across the United States. Using four models that analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation, this paper estimates impacts to roads, bridges, coastal properties, and urban drainage infrastructure and investigates sensitivity to varying greenhouse gas emission scenarios, climate sensitivities, and global climate models. The results suggest that the impacts of climate change in this sector could be large, especially in the second half of the 21st century as sea-level rises, temperature increases, and precipitation patterns become more extreme and affect the sustainability of long-lived infrastructure. Further, when considering sea-level rise, scenarios which incorporate dynamic ice sheet melting yield impact model results in coastal areas that are roughly 70 to 80 % higher than results that do not incorporate dynamic ice sheet melting. The potential for substantial economic impacts across all infrastructure sectors modeled, however, can be reduced by cost-effective adaptation measures. Mitigation policies also show potential to reduce impacts in the infrastructure sector – a more aggressive mitigation policy reduces impacts by 25 to 35 %, and a somewhat less aggressive policy reduces impacts by 19 to 30 %. The existing suite of models suitable for estimating these damages nonetheless covers only a small portion of expected infrastructure sector effects from climate change, so much work remains to better understand impacts on electric and telecommunications networks, rail, and air transportation systems. In addition, the effects of climate-induced extreme events are likely to be important, but are incompletely understood and remain an emerging area for research.
Climate change poses a critical threat to future development, particularly in areas where poverty is widespread and key assets such as infrastructure are underdeveloped for even current needs. The focus of this study includes ten geographically and economically diverse countries and the impact of 54 distinct AR4 Global Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios of future climate change on their existing road networks. The analysis is completed using a software tool which uses engineering and materials-based stressor-response functions to determine the impact of climate on maintenance, repair and construction. This study represents an update to a previous study conducted by the authors in 2011. The key updates include methodological advances, policy-oriented results presentation and the use of a new software tool developed by the authors.
The U.S. transportation system was built for the typical weather and climate experienced locally. Moderate changes in the mean climate have little impact on transportation. However, changes in weather and climate extremes can have considerable impact on transportation. Transportation relevant measures of extremes have been changing over the past several decades and are projected to continue to change in the future. Some of the changes are likely to have a positive impact on transportation and some negative. As the climate warms, cold temperature extremes are projected to continue to decrease. Milder winter conditions would likely improve the safety record for rail, air and ships. Warm extremes, on the other hand, are projected to increase. This change would likely increase the number of roadbed and railroad track bucklings and adversely impact maintenance work. As the cold season decreases and the warm season increases, northern transportation dependent upon ice roads and permanently frozen soil would be adversely affected while the projected commercial opening of the Northwest Passage would result in clear benefits to marine transportation. _______________________________________ The warming would also produce a side benefit of shifting more of the precipitation from snow to rain. But not all precipitation changes are likely to be beneficial. Heavy precipitation events are projected to increase, which can cause local flooding. At the same time, summer drying in the interior of the continent is likely to contribute to low water levels in inland waterways. Strong storms, including hurricanes, are projected to increase. Coastal transportation infrastructure is vulnerable to the combined effects of storm surge and global sea-level rise. Transportation planning operates on several different time scales. Road planners typically look out 25 years. Railroad planners consider 50 years. And bridges and underpasses are generally designed with 100 years in mind. In all cases, planning that takes likely changes into consideration will be important.
Transportation departments are beginning to recognize that adaptation for climate change must become an integral part of their planning efforts. However, staff members frequently lack the adequate local data, training, and guidance needed to begin adaptation planning assessments. As a result, planning for adapting to climate change has remained generally abstract and lacks the specificity needed to identify potential system vulnerabilities, assess risk, and prioritize responses. This report outlines a geographic information system-based method with which transportation departments can assess vulnerabilities to climate change in their multimodal surface transportation systems. The city of Portland, Oregon, is used as an illustrative case study. The proposed method allows for preliminary vulnerability identification, prioritization, and impact assessment and can also be used as a basis for more advanced analysis and scenario testing. This research also identifies and describes data gaps and other barriers to climate change adaptation planning for surface transportation.
The assessment of climate change impact is a fundamental step in highlighting the likely costs of inaction on mitigation policies and providing a guide of how to adapt to the potential impacts. This paper highlights the need to use an interdisciplinary approach to climate change impact assessment. This approach would take into account both climate and socioeconomic scenarios. It would also be mindful that the even the hard infrastructure may change dramatically in a sector as complex and reactive as transportation. In assessing climate change impact, it may be necessary to repeat the analysis for a number of scenarios in order to address this uncertainty.
The contribution of the transport systems, including road, air and sea, are making to climate change through the emission of greenhouse (GHG) gases, and new technologies and programmes of action to mitigate their impact on climate is reviewed. The actitivites of the transport systems in most countries are sensitive to a range of weather extremes, including those related to precipitation, thunderstorms, temperature, winds, visibility and sea level. The impact of climate, climate variability and climate change, in particular the impact of these extremes on transport systems and adaptation measures are discussed. This paper also discusses the foundation of climate services to assist informed decision-making for climate change adaptation, planning and designing, which require close collaboration among a wide range of disciplines and the engagement of the users such as the transport systems’ communities.
A Bayesian statistical model is proposed that combines information from a multimodel ensemble of atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and observations to determine probability distributions of future temperature change on a regional scale. The posterior distributions derived from the statistical assumptions incorporate the criteria of bias and convergence in the relative weights implicitly assigned to the ensemble members. This approach can be considered an extension and elaboration of the reliability ensemble averaging method. For illustration, the authors consider the output of mean surface temperature from nine AOGCMs, run under the A2 emission scenario from the Synthesis Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), for boreal winter and summer, aggregated over 22 land regions and into two 30-yr averages representative of current and future climate conditions. The shapes of the final probability density functions of temperature change vary widely, from unimodal curves for regions where
Bayesian Networks (Bns) are emerging as a valid approach for modelling and supporting decision making in the field of water resource management. Based on the coupling of an interaction graph to a probabilistic model, they have the potential to improve participation and allow integration with other models. The wide availability of ready-to-use software with which Bn models can be easily designed and implemented on a PC is further contributing to their spread. Although a number of papers are available in which the application of Bns to water-related problems is investigated, the majority of these works use the Bn semantics to model the whole water system, and thus do not discuss their integration with other types of model. In this paper some pros and cons of adopting Bns for water resource planning and management are analyzed by framing their use within the context of a participatory and integrated planning procedure, and exploring how they can be integrated with other types of models.
This paper aims to analyse the impacts of climate change to the current and predicted future situations of road transportation in the UK and evaluate the corresponding adaptation plans to cope with them. A conceptual framework of long-term adaptation planning for climate change in road systems is proposed to ensure the resilience and sustainability of road transport systems under various climate risks such as flooding and increased temperature. To do so, an advanced Fuzzy Bayesian Reasoning (FBR) model is first employed to evaluate the climate risks in the UK road transport networks. This modelling approach can tackle the high uncertainty in risk data and thus facilitate the development of the climate adaptation framework and its application in the UK road sector. To examine the feasibility of this model, a nationwide survey is conducted among the stakeholders to analyse the climate risks, in terms of the timeframe of climate threats, the likelihood of occurrence, the severity of consequences, and infrastructure resilience. From the modelling perspective, this work brings novelty by expanding the risk attribute “the severity of consequence” into three sub-attributes including economic loss, damage to the environment, and injuries and/or loss of life. It advances the-state-of-the-art technique in the current relevant literature from a single to multiple tier climate risk modelling structure. Secondly, an Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach is used to prioritise the best adaptation measure(s) by considering both the risk analysis results from the FBR and the implementation costs simultaneously. The main new contributions of this part lie in the rich raw data collected from the real world to provide useful practical insights for achieving road resilience when facing increasing climate risk challenges. During this process, a qualitative analysis of several national reports regarding the impacts posed by climate change, risk assessment and adaptation measures in the UK road sector is conducted for the relevant decision data (i.e. risk and cost). It is also supplemented by an in-depth interview with a senior planner from Highways England. The findings provide road planners and decision makers with useful insights on identification and prioritisation of climate threats as well as selection of cost-effective climate adaptation measures to rationalise adaptation planning.
In the past decades, maritime transportation not only contributes to economic prosperity, but also renders many threats to the industry, causing huge casualties and losses. As a result, various maritime safety measures have been developed, including Port State Control (PSC) inspections. In this paper, we propose a data-driven Bayesian Network (BN) based approach to analyse risk factors influencing PSC inspections, and predict the probability of vessel detention. To do so, inspection data of bulk carriers in seven major European countries from 2005 to 2008¹ in Paris MoU is collected to identify the relevant risk factors. Meanwhile, the network structure is constructed via TAN learning and subsequently validated by sensitivity analysis. The results reveal two conclusions: first, the key risk factors influencing PSC inspections include number of deficiencies, type of inspection, Recognised Organisation (RO) and vessel age. Second, the model exploits a novel way to predict the detention probabilities under different situations, which effectively help port authorities to rationalise their inspection regulations as well as allocation of the resources. Further effort will be made to conduct contrastive analysis between ‘Pre-NIR’ period and ‘Post-NIR’ period to test the impact of NIR started in 2008.
An integrated alternative planning can control climate change drivers and mitigate or neutralize the adverse impacts of the changing climate on the transportation energy sector. In this article, we introduced an infrastructure of alternative fuel as a synergistic approach to climate-adaptation and -mitigation, and advanced a quantitative method to simulate the dependency of travel behavior on fuel availability when the infrastructure of transportation energy is stressed or under attack.
Our approach allows both commuters traveling behavior and properties of transportation energy system to interact. Featuring a multi-stage mathematical program, the proposed model was used to study the resilience of New York City's transportation energy sector in the face of a range of climatic extremes.
We found the impact of the changing climate on energy sector is major and worsening over time. The modeling results also reveal spatial distribution of vulnerable elements in both transportation and fueling infrastructures, the system's overall resilience in time of disaster, and the daily-commuters impact of vulnerable energy infrastructure. The modeling results are crucial to successful integrated planning response to climate-adaptation and -mitigation.
Sealing of surfaces and land use change induced by population change puts pressure on urban water networks. Changes in paved areas can also increase the risk of pluvial flooding at places that have not been endangered before. For an anticipatory planning and adaptation of the existing water infrastructure to a dynamic and evolving system like a growing or shrinking city, a comprehensive urban development scenario analysis is essential. This work presents an urban development model designed especially for simplistic simulation of multiple predefined population and spatial scenarios and allowing for an integration with successive urban water network models.Results show that an analysis of different development scenarios can help to increase a city's resilience to unexpected changes. Hence it is crucial to simulate a variety of scenarios to cover as many future outcomes of city development as possible for a systematic and rigorous inquiry for problematic situations in the future.
The long term impact posed by climate change risk remains unclear and is subject to diverse interpretations from different maritime stakeholders. The inter-dynamics between climate change and ports can also significantly diversify in different geographical regions. Consequently, risk and cost data used to support climate adaptation is of high uncertainty and in many occasions, real data is often unavailable and incomplete. This paper presents a risk and cost evaluation methodology that can be applied to the analysis of port climate change adaptation measures in situations where data uncertainty is high. Risk and cost criteria are used in a decision-making model for the selection of climate adaptation measures. Information produced using a fuzzy-Bayesian risk analysis approach is utilized to evaluate risk reduction outcomes from the use of adaptation measures in ports. An evidential reasoning approach is then employed to synthesize the risk reduction data as inputs to the decision-making model. The results can assist policymakers in developing efficient adaptation measures that take into account the reduction in the likelihood of risks, their possible consequences, their timeframe, and costs incurred.
Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) throughout the United States are identifying goals and implementation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change through transportation adaptation initiatives. Using vulnerability assessments as well as adaptation practices that support mitigation, MPOs are beginning to integrate climate change planning into the long range planning process. Evaluating the state-of-the-practice of adaptation planning and adaptation in support of mitigation is useful in that it helps identify gaps and areas of improvement. Therefore, this research investigates the state-of-the-practice of MPO adaptation planning using the Mid-Atlantic region as a case study. Surveys, administered in 2012 and 2014, are used to identify the level of progress of MPOs with regard to climate change adaptation practices as well as barriers before and after Hurricane Sandy. A cross-sectional analysis using GIS (Geographic Information Systems) maps the results of the surveys and spatially compares regional trends. The results of the case study suggest growing interest in adaptation efforts such as floodplain area designations and efforts to enhance coordination and collaboration as transportation jurisdictions respond to the potential climate change impacts. In addition, MPOs with dense, smaller geographic areas prioritize inter-jurisdictional collaboration as high, suggesting that they are more reliant on other agencies to maintain inter-connectivity of transportation networks and further implement adaptation planning practices.
The potential effects of climate change on transportation infrastructure have been receiving attention in recent years. An especially useful and increasingly common approach to investigating the potential effects of climate change on infrastructure is the use of geographic information systems (GISs) for risk analysis because climate change effects are likely to occur in conjunction with other geographically specific impacts such as storm surge and traffic operations, whose vulnerability can be most effectively quantified with GIS-based tools. To demonstrate the efficacy of these tools, a scenario-based risk analysis approach is presented: it investigates the effects of climate change on transportation infrastructure in Hampton Roads, Virginia. First, climate change effects in the study site are investigated to develop representative climate change scenarios. Then, a GIS-based evaluation of transportation infrastructure vulnerability to sea level rise and storm surge is formed by combining the GIS data set with results from the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. Finally, the proposed risk model generates a GIS-based risk map under three scenarios of climate change threat. Results indicate that the city of Virginia Beach, Virginia, is at high risk in all three scenarios because of climate change events, a high level of transportation activity, and density of transportation facilities. The risk map—a visualization of the risk model—can assist transportation planners and decision makers with prioritizing assets to allocate resources for emergency preparation and response.
Risk analysis in seaports plays an increasingly important role in ensuring port operation reliability, maritime transportation safety and supply chain distribution resilience. However, the task is not straightforward given the challenges, including that port safety is affected by multiple factors related to design, installation, operation and maintenance and that traditional risk assessment methods such as quantitative risk analysis cannot sufficiently address uncertainty in failure data. This paper develops an advanced Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) approach through incorporating Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Networks (FRBN) to evaluate the criticality of the hazardous events (HEs) in a container terminal. The rational use of the Degrees of Belief (DoB) in a fuzzy rule base (FRB) facilitates the implementation of the new method in Container Terminal Risk Evaluation (CTRE) in practice. Compared to conventional FMEA methods, the new approach integrates FRB and BN in a complementary manner, in which the former provides a realistic and flexible way to describe input failure information while the latter allows easy updating of risk estimation results and facilitates real-time safety evaluation and dynamic risk-based decision support in container terminals. The proposed approach can also be tailored for wider application in other engineering and management systems, especially when instant risk ranking is required by the stakeholders to measure, predict and improve their system safety and reliability performance.
Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in human health risk assessment is virtually unavoidable. While probabilistic methods may adequately address exposure and risk model parameters with variability (body weight, exposure duration, exposure frequency), other methods are more helpful for handling uncertainty that arises from an incomplete understanding of the processes being modeled (mass transport). Due to the potential for cancer and other health risks, it is essential to understand of the concentrations of disinfection byproducts in swimming pool facilities and the related exposures. This study builds on previous probabilistic and fuzzy based fugacity models which estimate exposure to disinfection byproducts in swimming pools (Dyck, Water Res 45:5084–5098, 2011; Annual meeting of the North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society (NAFIPS), 2012). Those models estimated environmental concentrations based on mass transfer processes for which there are many possible formulas. The influence of membership function shape on the final estimated concentration required further investigation. In this study, three different trapezoidal membership functions are derived for the gas-side mass transfer coefficient k
G
. One triangular and one trapezoidal membership function are derived for the liquid-side mass transfer coefficient, k
L
. According to graphical output and percent difference between the actual concentration and the defuzzified output of the fuzzy based model, the best combination of shapes to use is the trapezoidal k
G
membership function which uses seven calculated values (to define the shape of the trapezoid) with either the triangular or trapezoidal k
L
membership function. Further study is recommended to combine the fuzzy based methods for poorly understood model processes with probabilistic methods for model parameters with aleatory uncertainty.
In dealing with complex and ill-defined systems of an offshore application, modelling of human reasoning for the purpose of risk assessment requires the effectiveness of a systematic logic-based approach. Floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) installations, for example, combine traditional process technology with marine technology, and thus are quite dependent on technical design and operational safety control. Such safety-critical dependencies require novel approaches to properly analyse the risk involved. Hence, a proposed framework utilising approximate reasoning and evidential reasoning approaches is provided for modelling the assessment task. As based on fuzzy set theory, the model enables uncertainties to be described mathematically and further processed in the analysis of the structures. The forms of membership functions that could be used in representing fuzzy linguistic variables to quantify risk levels are presented. A case study of collision risk between FPSO and shuttle tanker due to technical failure during tandem offloading operation is used in this paper to illustrate the application of the proposed model. Furthermore, the obtained results from the case study provide confirmation that at various stages of offshore engineering systems design process the framework of incorporated approximate reasoning is a suited and convenient tool for attaining reliable risk analysis.
Security has become a major concern for logistics and transportation managers. Statistics showing increasing trends in cargo theft, especially in road operations, as well as upcoming mandatory programs issued by EU and US governments, are requiring operators to increase their security degrees; i.e., by introducing new security routines, managerial strategies or by investing in technological systems. Thus, the new challenge faced by managers is to choose among wide sets of security solutions by trading off costs and impacts on security. Hence, this paper presents a methodology that takes advantage of the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) approach to compare costs and benefits, in form of risk reductions, of security solutions for road transport operations against theft. Subjective interpretations, from a Swedish group of security experts, are exploited to generate random data from triangular distributions and simulate their impact with Monte Carlo techniques. Finally, pros and cons of the methodology as well as future research are discussed.
Formal safety assessment (FSA), as a structured and systematic risk evaluation methodology, has been increasingly and broadly used in the shipping industry around the world. Concerns have been raised as to navigational safety of the Yangtze River, China's largest and the world's busiest inland waterway. Over the last few decades, the throughput of ships in the Yangtze River has increased rapidly due to the national development of the Middle and Western parts of China. Accidents such as collisions, groundings, contacts, oil-spills and fires occur repeatedly, often causing serious consequences. In order to improve the navigational safety in the Yangtze River, this paper estimates the navigational risk of the Yangtze River using the FSA concept and a Bayesian network (BN) technique. The navigational risk model is established by considering both probability and consequences of accidents with respect to a risk matrix method, followed by a scenario analysis to demonstrate the application of the proposed model.
Climate change predictions suggest a trend towards hotter drier summers in the UK. At extreme high temperatures the railway network is prone to dangerous, damaging, and expensive rail buckles. In order to reduce the risk of a rail buckle, emergency speed restrictions are introduced which can be costly. This article presents a quantification of the effects of higher summer temperatures due to climate change on the UK railway network. A combination of analogue techniques and a weather generator are used to establish trends between heat-related delays and temperatures. Costs are assigned to the change in frequency and severity of delays and evidence-based recommendations are made for future operations. The results demonstrate that the costs incurred as a result of the hot summer of 2003 will become typical in the 2050s (high emissions scenario) and 2080s (low emissions scenario). If no changes are made to maintenance regimes, it is estimated that the total costs of heat-related delays will eventually double to nearly £23 M during extreme summers.
There is much discussion about the contribution of transport to global warming, but what about the impact of our changing climate on transport modes, infrastructure and passengers? This paper examines the potential impacts of climate change on London's transport systems, based on the findings of a research study undertaken for the London Climate Change Partnership between 2004 and 2005. Recent extreme weather events have had significant impact on London's transport systems; for example, the effect of high temperatures on London Underground and major flooding of roads and railway stations. Scenarios of climate change show that London will experience hotter summers, wetter winters, more intense rainfall and a rise in sea level over the coming century. This poses a number of risks to the operation and use of transport systems in a city where 26 million trips are made every day. The study focuses on four case studies. Each case study assesses: the issue now, drawing on current weather-related effects; how climate change will affect the future; the action already underway in London to address climate impacts; and options and timescales for adaptation. It is apparent that most risks already exist - climate change will simply make them worse. With forward planning, successful and cost-effective adaptation can be achieved.
Purpose – To investigate the potential impacts of future climate change in the United Kingdom on its road and rail networks.
Methodology/approach – The climate change impacts of increasing summer temperatures, decreasing winter temperatures, increased heavy precipitation, greater numbers of extreme weather events and rises in sea level are reviewed.
Findings – Surface transportation is the most exposed element to the localised impacts of climate change. High summer temperatures will result in road rutting, rail buckling and decreased thermal comfort, whereas more intense winter precipitation will cause flooding, landslips and bridge scour across all modes. For all impacts, it is the extreme events (e.g. heat waves and storms) that are potentially the most devastating. As shown, there are some positive climate change impacts. For example, in the case of winter maintenance, all transport networks stand to benefit.
Originality/value – In order for transport to react appropriately to the potential changes in climate, it is essential to understand how the road and rail networks may be affected and to build strategies for both adaptation and mitigation into plans for future developments for both modes.
Extreme high temperatures are associated with increased incidences of rail buckles. Climate change is predicted to alter the temperature profile in the United Kingdom with extreme high temperatures becoming an increasingly frequent occurrence. The result is that the number of buckles, and therefore delays, expected per year will increase if the track is maintained to the current standard. This paper uses a combination of analogue techniques and a weather generator to quantify the increase in the number of buckles and rail related delays in the south-east of the United Kingdom. The paper concludes by assigning a cost to the resultant rise in delays and damage before making recommendations on how these effects can be mitigated. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
This paper presents a survey of the empirical literature on the effects of climate change and weather conditions on the transport sector. Despite mixed evidence on many issues, several patterns can be ob-served. On a global scale especially shifts in tourism and agricultural production due to increased tem-peratures may lead to shifts in passenger and freight transport. The predicted rise in sea levels and the associated increase in frequency and intensity of storm surges and flooding incidences may further-more be some of the most worrying consequences of climate change, especially for coastal areas. Cli-mate change related shifts in weather patterns may also affect infrastructure disruptions. Clear patterns are that precipitation affects road safety; it increases accident frequency but decreases accident severi-ty. Precipitation also increases congestion, especially during peak hours. Furthermore, an increased frequency of low water levels may considerably increase costs of inland waterway transport. Despite these valuable insights, the net impact of climate change on generalised costs of the various transport modes are uncertain and ambiguous, with a possible exception for inland waterway transport.
Although the use of climate scenarios for impact assessment has grown steadily since the 1990s, uptake of such information for adaptation is lagging by nearly a decade in terms of scientific output. Nonetheless, integration of climate risk information in development planning is now a priority for donor agencies because of the need to prepare for climate change impacts across different sectors and countries. This urgency stems from concerns that progress made against Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) could be threatened by anthropogenic climate change beyond 2015. Up to this time the human signal, though detectable and growing, will be a relatively small component of climate variability and change. This implies the need for a twin-track approach: on the one hand, vulnerability assessments of social and economic strategies for coping with present climate extremes and variability, and, on the other hand, development of climate forecast tools and scenarios to evaluate sector-specific, incremental changes in risk over the next few decades. This review starts by describing the climate outlook for the next couple of decades and the implications for adaptation assessments. We then review ways in which climate risk information is already being used in adaptation assessments and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of three groups of techniques. Next we identify knowledge gaps and opportunities for improving the production and uptake of climate risk information for the 2020s. We assert that climate change scenarios can meet some, but not all, of the needs of adaptation planning. Even then, the choice of scenario technique must be matched to the intended application, taking into account local constraints of time, resources, human capacity and supporting infrastructure. We also show that much greater attention should be given to improving and critiquing models used for climate impact assessment, as standard practice. Finally, we highlight the over-arching need for the scientific community to provide more information and guidance on adapting to the risks of climate variability and change over nearer time horizons (i.e. the 2020s). Although the focus of the review is on information provision and uptake in developing regions, it is clear that many developed countries are facing the same challenges. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society
This paper provides a general overview of creating scenarios for energy policies using Bayesian Network (BN) models. BN is a useful tool to analyze the complex structures, which allows observation of the current structure and basic consequences of any strategic change. This research will propose a decision model that will support the researchers in forecasting and scenario analysis fields. The proposed model will be implemented in a case study for Turkey. The choice of the case is based on complexities of a renewable energy resource rich country. Turkey is a heavy energy importer discussing new investments. Domestic resources could be evaluated under different scenarios aiming the sustainability. Achievements of this study will open a new vision for the decision makers in energy sector.
Over the last few years, there has been a growing international recognition that the security performance of the maritime industry needs to be reviewed on an urgent basis. A large number of optional maritime security control measures have been proposed through various regulations and publications in the post-9/11 era. There is a strong need for a sound and generic methodology, which is capable of taking into account multiple selection criteria such as the cost effectiveness of the measures based on reasonable security assessment. The use of traditional risk assessment and decision-making approaches to deal with potential terrorism threats in a maritime security area reveals two major challenges. They are lack of capability of analyzing security in situations of high-level uncertainty and lack of capability of processing diverse data in a utility form suitable as input to a risk inference mechanism. To deal with such difficulties, this article proposes a subjective security-based assessment and management framework using fuzzy evidential reasoning (ER) approaches. Consequently, the framework can be used to assemble and process subjective risk assessment information on different aspects of a maritime transport system from multiple experts in a systematic way. Outputs of this model can also provide decisionmakers with a transparent tool to evaluate maritime security policy options for a specific scenario in a cost-effective manner.
Analysts are sometimes asked to make frequency estimates for
specific accidents in which the accident frequency is determined
primarily by safety controls. Under these conditions, frequency
estimates use considerable expert belief in determining how the controls
affect the accident frequency. To evaluate and document beliefs about
control effectiveness, they have modified a traditional Bayesian
approach by using approximate reasoning (AR) to develop prior
distributions. Their method produces accident frequency estimates that
separately express the probabilistic results produced in Bayesian
analysis and possibilistic results that reflect uncertainty about the
prior estimates. Based on their experience using traditional methods,
they feel that the AR approach better documents beliefs about the
effectiveness of controls than if the beliefs are buried in Bayesian
prior distributions. They have performed numerous expert elicitations in
which probabilistic information was sought from subject matter experts
not trained in probability. They find it much easier to elicit the
linguistic variables and fuzzy set membership values used in AR than to
obtain the probability distributions used in prior distributions
directly from these experts because it better captures their beliefs and
better expresses their uncertainties
Cumbria hit by flooding after heavy rain, Storm Desmond: Defences against indefensible floods
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