400 YEARS ON! REPORT OF A PUBLIC CONFERENCE COMMEMORATING THE 400TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE 1607 FLOOD IN THE BRISTOL CHANNEL AND SEVERN ESTUARY, UK.

Abstract

A catastrophic seaflood that occurred on 30 January 1607 was commemorated 400 years on through a public conference organised by Bath Spa University but held at the Caerleon Campus of the University of Wales, Newport, on the afternoon of Saturday 27th January 2007.

Full text

Archaeology in the Severn Estuary 18 (2007), 115-118 115
A catastrophic seaflood that occurred on 30
January 1607 was commemorated 400 years on
through a public conference organised by Bath
Spa University but held at the Caerleon Campus
of the University of Wales, Newport, on the
afternoon of Saturday 27th January 2007.
Recent interest in the 1607 flood had been
stimulated by a paper published in 2003 that
controversially suggested the flood had been the
result of a tsunami (Bryant and Haslett, 2003). A
documentary was subsequently made by the BBC
in 2004, but before it could be broadcast the
devastating Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December
2004 tragically occurred, delaying the broadcast
due to sensitivities, but also raising the topicality
and interest in the subject. The programme was
eventually broadcast as part of the BBC2
Timewatch series on 1st April 2005 entitled Killer
Wave of 1607.
The conference was advertised to the
general public and received an overwhelming
response with all seats being taken and a reserve
list drawn up! It also gathered considerable media
attention, with footage filmed at the conference
subsequently shown on BBC1 National News on
Tuesday 30 January 2007. The invited panel of
speakers included some of the academics that
appeared on the Timewatch programme as well as
others with an interest in the topic. Balance was
achieved by drawing the panel from both sides of
the controversy.
Dr Paul Davies (Bath Spa University) was
the convenor and got the meeting underway with a
welcome and safety announcement. Richard
Brunning (Somerset County Council) then gave a
broad overview of the Bristol Channel and Severn
Estuary region and its archaeological and
historical context. He began by outlining early
Holocene studies using techniques such as pollen
analysis and dendrochronology to piece together
evidence for the nature and timing of
palaeoenvironmental change. This was presented
against the backdrop of human occupation and
activity in the landscape, starting with the
Mesolithic and ending with recent impacts. Of
particular relevance was the outline of reclamation
history, spanning from the Roman Period through
to the later Middle Ages, activity that rendered the
Levels inherently vulnerable to coastal flooding.
Professor Simon Haslett (Bath Spa
University) followed this with an introduction to
the 1607 flood and how the tsunami theory came
about. His first task was to present historical
evidence that the flood actually occurred and
produced contemporary chap books, such as the
Lamentable Newes out of Monmouthshire, that
contain information and woodcuts (Figure 1)
about the event, collected and published at the
time. A number of parish churches, such as those
at Goldcliff, Redwick and Kingston Seymore, for
example, possess commemorative plaques that
give additional information about the flood. He
then reviewed the scale of the flood that affected
an area that stretched from North Devon, through
Somerset and Gloucestershire, and along the
South Wales coast from Monmouthshire to
Carmarthenshire, some 570 km of coast. The
coastal population was devastated with an
400 YEARS ON! REPORT OF A PUBLIC CONFERENCE
COMMEMORATING THE 400
TH
ANNIVERSARY OF
THE 1607 FLOOD IN THE BRISTOL CHANNEL AND
SEVERN ESTUARY, UK.
By Simon K. Haslett
1, 2
1
Quaternary Research Centre, Department of Geography, School of Science and the Environment, Bath
Spa University, Newton Park, Bath, BA2 9BN, UK.
2
Present address: CELT, University of Wales, Newport, Caerleon Campus, Newport, NP18 3QT, UK.
Email: simon.haslett@newport.ac.uk

Haslett -
400 years on! The 1607 flood in the Bristol Channel and Severn Estuary, UK
116
estimated 2000 fatalities. He went on to explain
how Ted Bryant and himself realised that the
flood may not have been caused by a storm but by
a tsunami. This included contradictory weather
reports and also physical features that other
authors had previously noted had a chronological
link to the early 17th century. He finished by
mentioning the media interest in their theory and
that the subsequent rousing of public interest in
academic research and the Severn Estuary was an
unforeseen yet satisfying consequence and
thanked the audience for attending the meeting.
Dr Andrew Skellern (Bath Spa University)
presented maps of the extent of the 1607 flood
based on field data processed using a
Geographical Information System (GIS).
Mapping was achieved through the use of flood
depths recorded on churches in the Gwent and
Somerset Levels, such as a Goldcliff, Redwick
and Kingston Seymore. These depths were then
mapped onto topography to give a first estimation
of the extent of the flooding. Cross-checking with
parishes named in contemporary documents as
being affected generally agreed well with the
extent of the mapped flood. Skellern et al (this
volume) give further details of their work.
Dr Kevin Horsburgh (Proudman
Oceanographic Laboratory, Liverpool) presented a
model superimposing a storm surge on the
predicted tidal conditions of the day to recreate
the observed flooding. He states that some
contemporary reports do mention strong winds
blowing at the time and that these, combined with
low atmospheric pressure and high tide levels, are
adequate to explain the extent of the devastating
flooding recorded. He also reminded the audience
that coastal flooding also occurred in East Anglia
on the same day. He considers the 1607 flood to
“represent the worst known combination of high
spring tide and locally generated surge in the
Bristol Channel”.
Dr Ted Bryant (University of Wollongong,
Australia) presented field evidence for
catastrophic wave erosion in the Bristol Channel
and Severn Estuary, including one site (Dunraven
Bay) that seems to indicate the 1607 flood as the
most likely candidate. Although he conceded that
the extent of the 1607 flood could have be the
result of a storm surge the “contemporary
descriptions of the event have many of the
characteristics of recent catastrophic tsunami”.
Physical evidence, from analysis of imbricated
boulders, was presented that indicates increasing
Figure 1. Contemporary woodcut of the 1607 flood.

Archaeology in the Severn Estuary 18 (2007), 115-118 117
tsunami wave height up the Bristol Channel and
Severn Estuary, from 4 m high waves required to
move boulders in the Outer Bristol Channel,
through to 6 m high tsunami waves in the inner
Severn Estuary – a phenomenon that could be
created by the funnelling effect of the estuary.
Furthermore, cliff recession rates at Dunraven Bay
(Glamorgan) suggest the imbricated boulders
there were emplaced between AD 1590 and AD
1672, making 1607 a strong candidate. However,
he concluded by saying “the presence of tsunami
in the Bristol Channel can be firmly established
using geomorphic evidence; but linking this
evidence to the 1607 flood event is less certain”.
During tea delegates were invited to view a
research poster by William Tandy (University of
Keele) who presented field and archival evidence
for tsunami impact along the Pembrokeshire coast.
He concludes that evidence of the impact of the
1607 flood exists along the Pembrokeshire
coastline and that analysis of these data suggest a
tsunami rather than a storm origin.
After tea, Dr Philippe Blondel (University
of Bath) considered preliminary marine
geophysical models for tsunami generation in the
region. In addition to examining the more likely
tsunamigenic sources, such as the Mid-Atlantic
Ridge and Fracture Zones, he identified some
possible sources immediately southwest of the
British Isles, particularly along the continental
slope. He also mentioned the possibility that the
flood may have been caused by a meteorological
tsunami.
Lastly, Dr Robert Muir-Wood (Risk
Management Solutions), who also considers the
flood to have been caused by a storm surge,
estimated the financial loss that would be incurred
should a similar flood occur again in the region
and concluded that losses would amount to around
£13 billion, exceeding the losses of a future 1953
east coast storm surge event by several billion!
Interestingly, during the course of his research he
has estimated that tide levels have increased in the
region by up to 1.5 m, a rise that he considers
requires an increase in tidal range in addition to
relative sea-level rise over the past 400 years.
Dr Davies invited questions from the floor,
which were numerous, followed by a show of
hands for those in favour of a storm surge or
tsunami hypothesis. Those in favour of a storm
surge explanation outnumbered those of the
tsunami, but following the meeting several
undecided delegates expressed disappointed that
they were not given an opportunity to indicate
their abstention.
The scientific debate over the cause of the
flood was clearly divided. Tsunami studies have
grown in recent years and reappraisals of coastal
flood events, and the role of tsunami in coastal
evolution, is occurring worldwide (eg Bryant,
2008). However, the mechanics and sources of
tsunami generation in northwest Europe is not
well-understood, and large areas of sea-floor
remain to be mapped in sufficient detail to allow a
proper evaluation. The same is not true for storm
surges, where the conditions for surge generation
are reasonably well-understood (eg Pugh, 1987).
The conference conveyed a general opinion that
the tsunami hypothesis for the cause of the 1607
flood requires more evidence (both documentary
and physical) to support such a claim, whereas a
storm surge is almost the default explanation and
requires no further research.
This conference occurred at the same
general time as other commemorative events
during 2007 organised by the local parish
communities of the Gwent Levels under the
umbrella of Flood 400, funded by a Heritage
Lottery Grant. Events included a commemorative
church service at Redwick Church on 30th
January given by the Bishop of Bath and Wells, a
Flower Festival involving the churches of Nash,
Goldcliff and Redwick on Whitsun Bank Holiday
weekend in May, a series of lectures including
presentations by Professor Haslett and Dr
Horsburgh, and information boards. A local
ramblers group also organised a commemorative
walk to places affected by the flood, and a peel of
bells was rung in churches along the length of the
Gwent coast on 20th January.
The conference also spurred a debate into
the age of the term ‘Bristol Channel’ (Simmons,
2007), which it is argued does not extend back far
enough to be used in the context of the 1607 flood
despite the citing of a 1583 map by Waghenaer
with the label ‘Die Canael van Brostv’. To add to
the debate here, Needell (2001) lists a later map
by Waghenaer from 1589 where ‘Canalis .. á
Bristouio’ is indicated (pp. 140-142), and again in

Haslett -
400 years on! The 1607 flood in the Bristol Channel and Severn Estuary, UK
118
the 1612 map of William Johson displaying
‘Canael van Bristou’ (pp. 99-101).
Publications regarding the 1607 flood have
continued to appear and are included in the
bibliography. Interested readers may also obtain a
full programme and abstracts of this conference,
and further information, by typing the search word
‘tsunami’ in the Bath Spa University homepage
(www.bathspa.ac.uk).
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Catastrophic wave erosion, Bristol Channel, UK -
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