Conference Paper

Prediction, Visualization, and Optimization of Resources Using Time-Series Forecasting Models and Simplex Linear Programming

Authors:
Eugenia Zhuo at University of Santo Tomas
Eugenia Zhuo
Jake Libed
Jake Libed
Jake Libed
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This paper examines the connection of immigration and diversity to homicide by advancing a recently developed approach to modeling spatial dynamics-geographically weighted regression. In contrast to traditional global averaging, we argue on substantive grounds that neighborhood characteristics vary in their effects across neighborhood space, a process of "spatial heterogeneity." Much like treatment-effect heterogeneity and distinct from spatial spillover, our analysis finds considerable evidence that neighborhood characteristics in Chicago vary significantly in predicting homicide, in some cases showing countervailing effects depending on spatial location. In general, however, immigrant concentration is either unrelated or inversely related to homicide, whereas language diversity is consistently linked to lower homicide. The results shed new light on the immigration-homicide nexus and suggest the pitfalls of global averaging models that hide the reality of a highly diversified and spatially stratified metropolis.
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