Content uploaded by Subhabrata Panda
Author content
All content in this area was uploaded by Subhabrata Panda on Mar 24, 2020
Content may be subject to copyright.
Prediction of drought and flood years in Eastern India using length of runs of annual rainfalls. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation. 40(3 & 4): 184 - 191. ISSN: 0022-457X.
Abstract
65 years, 83 years, 84 years, 86 years and 87 years annual rainfall data of 10 raingauge stations in Eastern India were analysed for prediction of drought and flood years using runs of annual rainfalls. Both for the entire period of studies and the period after 1950 it was observed that 2 years excess of the mean annual rainfall is most likely to be followed by the deficit.
Panda S, Datta D K and Das M N (1996) Journal of Soil and Water Conservation. ISSN: 0022-457X. 40(3 & 4): 184 - 191.
Supplementary resource (1)
... In general, the main challenges in river' DSS are related to the fact that the lack of sufficient data complicates projection of long-term trends for long-term plans for rivers. ''While working on prediction of drought and flood years we are always making judgments and decisions on the basis of incomplete information, but this is preferable to decisions based on no information at all'' (Panda et al. 1996). ...
We use the Dichotomous Markov Noise model with constant transition rates to describe the dynamics of fluctuations in the water level as a stochastic process, which is imposed on river discharge changes. By applying this model, two different regimes are determined for the long-term behaviour of the river. Based on these regimes, we define two nonparametric classes of the overall increasing/decreasing nature of the water level in the long-term behaviour, which are separated by an exponential steady state regime. In this paper, we develop a nonpara-metric testing procedure to test exponentially (steady state regime) against an alternative overall decreasing level distribution. The proposed test predicts the long-term regime behaviour of the river. The mathematical tools introduced to handle the problem should be of general use and the testing procedure can be considered as a new mathematical tool in the study of water level dynamics. Under conditions of data austerity and as a case of study, we examine the stochastic characteristics of the Zayandeh Rud (Za ¯yandé-Ru ¯d or Za ¯yanderu ¯d, also spelled as Za-yandeh-Rood or Zayanderood) River (Isfahan, Iran) water level. Keywords Zayandeh Rud River Á DMN Á Real-time river management Á Extreme events modeling Á Nonparametric test
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any references for this publication.