Logistic and multiple regression : the two-step approach to estimating cost growth /

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AFIT/GCA/ENC/04-01. "March 2004." Thesis (M.S.)--Air Force Institute of Technology, 2004. Includes bibliographical references (leaf 56).

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... In 1996, USAF Captain Gordon found no relationship between rebaselining and cost overruns [Gordon 1996]. Building on the previous studies by Sipple [Sipple 2002] and Genest [Genest 2004], Cross took a two-stage approach to statistical modeling: (1) use a logistic regression to identify whether schedule slips occurred and (2) use multiple regression models to predict the extent of schedule variance [Cross 2006]. In these models, the predictor variables accounted for 83% of the schedule variance. ...
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The challenges program managers encounter in attempting to deliver programs on time and on budget are well substantiated. A significant driver of the turbulence experienced by acquisition programs today is the transformation to joint capabilities. This report describes a series of ongoing research efforts, sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), that investigated the role of interdependence in the acquisition of major defense acquisition programs. The overall goal of the research was to identify, quantify, and assess the degree of programmatic and constructive interdependence and to assess the effects of interdependence on program risk. A number of important findings and noteworthy insights were discovered as programs were examined in light of their interdependencies with other programs. The results indicate that an expanded definition of interdependencies along with the incorporation of network analysis tools may provide important insights into program performance in a joint capability arena.
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