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A magyar népességpolitikai intézkedések tényezői és várható hatásai Factors and expected outcomes of pro-birth policy interventions

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Judit SÁGI - Csaba LENTNER: Factors and expected outcomes of pro-birth policy interventions: A decrease in the number of births and in willingness to bear children is common in the developed world, statistically measurable by total fertility rate and its adjusted methods. This study examines the socio-demographic trends of the last decade behind the childbearing issue, along with economic-policy responses to them. The authors investigate the change of course in government interventions, focusing on pro-birth policies, family subsidies and regulatory policies and comparing them. They build on the assumption that fiscal policies can influence maternity and fertility with childbearing-related benefits (family allowances, home settlement subsidies). They also gauge family-policy interventions (i. e. how young adults find preferential housing subsidies when planning to have a child), from the findings of two subsequent surveys of young adults studying in higher education in Hungary. The conclusions cover relevant data on the differentiated age and region-related effects of family policy, and predict trends in childbearing. A magyar népességpolitikai intézkedések tényezői és várható hatásai : A gyermekvállalási hajlandóság és az újszülöttek számának csökkenése a fejlett világban általános jelenség, amelyet statisztikailag a teljes termékenységi arány-számmal és ennek korrigált mutatóival mérhetünk. Jelen tanulmány az elmúlt évtized gyermekvállalással kapcsolatos társadalmi-demográfiai tendenciáit vizs-gálja, és az ezekre adott magyar pénzügypolitikai válaszokat mutatja be. A szer-zők megvizsgálják a kormányzati beavatkozásokban bekövetkezett változásokat, a születésösztönző eszközökre, a családi támogatásokra és a szabályozási politi-kákra összpontosítva. Feltevésük, hogy a költségvetési politikai lépések-a gyer-mekvállaláshoz kapcsolódó juttatások (családi kedvezmények, otthonteremtési támogatások) révén-befolyásolhatják a gyermekvállalási hajlandóságot és a termékenységet. A szerzők saját-a magyar felsőfokú nappali képzésben részt vevők körében a közelmúltban két alkalommal is elvégzett reprezentatív felmérés keretében-empirikus kutatásuk eredményein keresztül is szemléltetik a csa-ládpolitikai beavatkozások hatását. Megállapításaik releváns adatokat tartalmaz-nak a családpolitika korcsoportonkénti és regionális differenciáltságát illetően, és előre vetítik a várható gyermekvállalási trendeket.
KÖZGAZDASÁGI SZEMLE , LXVII. ÉVF., 2020. MÁRCIUS 289–308. o.
SÁGI JUDITLENTNER CSABA
A magyar népességpolitikai
intézkedések tényezői és várható hatásai
A gyermekvállalási hajlandóság és az újszülöttek számának csökkenése a fejlett
világban általános jelenség, amelyet statisztikailag a teljes termékenységi arány-
számmal és ennek korrigált mutatóival mérhetünk. Jelen tanulmány az elmúlt
évtized gyermekvállalással kapcsolatos társadalmi-demográfiai tendenciáit vizs-
gálja, és az ezekre adott magyar pénzügypolitikai válaszokat mutatja be. A szer-
zők megvizsgálják a kormányzati beavatkozásokban bekövetkezett változásokat,
a születésösztönző eszközökre, a családi támogatásokra és a szabályozási politi-
kákra összpontosítva. Feltevésük, hogy a költségvetési politikai lépések – a gyer-
mekvállaláshoz kapcsolódó juttatások (családi kedvezmények, otthonteremtési
támogatások) révén – befolyásolhatják a gyermekvállalási hajlandóságot és a
termékenységet. Aszerzők saját – a magyar felsőfokú nappali képzésben részt
vevők körében a közelmúltban két alkalommal is elvégzett reprezentatív felmérés
keretében – empirikus kutatásuk eredményein keresztül is szemléltetik a csa-
ládpolitikai beavatkozások hatását. Megállapításaik releváns adatokat tartalmaz-
nak a családpolitika korcsoportonkénti és regionális differenciáltságát illetően, és
előre vetítik a várható gyermekvállalási trendeket.
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: D6, H2, I38, J11, J13, R21.
Bevezetés
Az 1940-es évektől Nyugat-Európában, majd az 1960-as évektől Kelet-Közép-Euró-
pában is visszaesett a gyermekvállalási hajlandóság (Neyer és szerzőtársai [2016]).
A munkahelyi követelmények növekedése és a hagyományos családi minták visz-
szaszorulása mind csökkentette a gyermekvállalási hajlandóságot (Oláh [2015]).
A keleti országokban a rendszerváltás okozta bizonytalanság is szerepet játszott
HELY
Lentner Csaba egyetemi tanár, Nemzeti Közszolgálati Egyetem Kormányzástani és Közpolitikai Tan-
szék (e-mail: Lentner.Csaba@uni-nke.hu).
Sági Judit egyetemi docens, Budapesti Gazdasági Egyetem Pénzügy Tanszék (e-mail: Sagi.Judit@uni-
bge.hu).
A kézirat első változata 2019. június 20-án érkezett szerkesztőségünkbe.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18414/KSZ.2020.3.289
Factors and expected outcomes of pro-birth policy interventions
A decrease in the number of births and in willingness to bear children is common in the
developed world, statistically measurable by total fertility rate and its adjusted methods. This
study examines the socio-demographic trends of the last decade behind the childbearing issue,
along with economic-policy responses to them. The authors investigate the change of course
in government interventions, focusing on pro-birth policies, family subsidies and regulatory
policies and comparing them. They build on the assumption that fiscal policies can influence
maternity and fertility with childbearing-related benefits (family allowances, home settlement
subsidies). They also gauge family-policy interventions (i. e. how young adults find
preferential housing subsidies when planning to have a child), from the findings of two
subsequent surveys of young adults studying in higher education in Hungary. The conclusions
cover relevant data on the differentiated age and region-related effects of family policy, and
predict trends in childbearing.
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