Article

What are the determinant of international tourism in Tanzania?

Authors:
To read the full-text of this research, you can request a copy directly from the authors.

No full-text available

Request Full-text Paper PDF

To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.

... To ensure that the tourism-growth relationship obtained in this study reflects these recent events, the study focused on the post-GFC period. Besides, it has been argued that tourism could be sensitive to climatic factors, infrastructural development and political risk (Scott, Gössling, & Hall, 2012;Wamboye, Nyaronga, & Sergi, 2020). However, the moderating effects of these factors on the tourism-growth relationship are yet to be investigated in Africa as a region. ...
... However, Wang, Huang, Gong, and Cao (2020) and Ali et al. (2020) showed that tourism could worsen environmental quality, for instance, by increasing the level of CO2 emission; while Farzanegan, Gholipour, Feizi, Nunkoo, and Andargoli (2020) studied a panel of 90 countries and found a positive correlation between international tourism and Covid-19 cases as well as the associated deaths from Covid-19. Beyond these dimensions, studies have shown that tourism may be sensitive to changes in climatic variables, infrastructural development and political risk (Scott et al., 2012;Wamboye et al., 2020). However, the moderating effects of these variables on the tourism-growth relationship have not yet been investigated in Africa as a region. ...
... Thus, for tourism arrivals, the following interaction terms were included in the models: t_infras, t_polrisk, t_rain, and t_temp; while for tourism receipts, the following interaction terms were included in the models: t_rec_infras, t_rec_polrisk, t_rec_rain, and t_rec_temp. Scott et al. (2012) and Wamboye et al. (2020) suggest that tourism is sensitive to these factors, thereby making it imperative to check how these interactions affect the tourismgrowth relationship in Africa. ...
Article
Unlike the extant literature, this study revisited the tourism-growth relationship in Africa and accounted for the moderating effects of climatic factors, infrastructural development and political risk on this relationship. The study used the system GMM technique, the panel Granger causality framework, and annual panel data of 41 African countries from 2009 to 2018. Contrary to the tourism-led growth hypothesis, we find that the role of tourism as a driver of economic growth in Africa is predominantly negligible, which in turn suggests that Africa is yet to exploit its tourism potentials to drive growth during the post-Global Financial Crisis period. The study concludes that there is need for African leaders to coordinate policy efforts towards harnessing the tourism potentials on the continent in order to diversify their economies, counter instability in global commodity markets, drive sustainable growth, and fight the twin evils of poverty and unemployment.
... The sector created 1,550,100 jobs in 2019, which is equivalent to 11.1% of the country's total employment. The tourism sector in Tanzania is also instrumental in the fight against abject poverty through job creation and the development of a market for traditional products (Luvanga and Shitundu, 2003;Odhiambo, 2011;Wamboye et al., 2020). The development of the tourism sector in Tanzania, and the developing countries at large, is also a stimulant for the development of transport and hospitality industries (Gisore and Ogutu, 2015;Sokhanvar et al., 2018). ...
... The consistent increase of international tourism receipts, as a special form of export, contributes to increasing forex and a better balance of payment (Gisore and Ogutu, 2015;Luvanga and Shitundu, 2003). In total, Tanzania has 44 game-controlled areas; 16 national and 2 marine parks, 28 game reserves, several forest reserves, and 1 conservation area hosting the world's renowned biodiversity, wildlife, and unique ecosystems (Wamboye et al., 2020). ...
... Wizara ya Fedha na Mipango, 2016). Nevertheless, there are limited empirical studies carried out to investigate the tourism-income relationship among the developing nations (Wamboye et al., 2020); most of the studies focus on Europe, Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East; scanty studies focus on Africa. ...
Article
Full-text available
After the economic liberalization in mid-2000, Tanzania has assumed that tourism growth spars economic growth due to the consistent significant contribution of tourism sector to the country's annual income. However, there are limited empirical studies that investigated tourism-economic growth relationship in Tanzania. This study aims to investigate an empirical insight into the actual nature of tourism-economic growth in Tanzania by applying the Granger causality and Wald test methods where annual time series data on international tourism receipt, real Gross Domestic Product, and real effective exchange rate over the period 1989–2018 are used. Further, the Impulse Response Function approach is utilized to provide insight into the qualitative nature of the relationships and the length of time necessary for the causal effect to take place. The findings confirm a unidirectional causality from tourism development to economic growth. The study concludes that Tanzania ought to focus on economic strategies that encourage sustainable tourism development as a feasible source of economic growth.
... Moreover, the increase of international tourism receipts has increased forex and balance of payment (Gisore & Ogutu, 2015). In aggregate, Tanzania has sixteen (16) national parks, forty four (44) game-controlled areas; twenty eight (28) game reserves, two (2) marine parks, one (1) conservation area hosting the world's renowned biodiversity, unique ecosystems, wildlife; and several forest reserves (Wamboye et al., 2020). Moreover, for the case of average tourism receipts, over the period 2010 to 2019 compared with other African countries, Tanzania was 23.95%, Uganda 21.17%, Kenya 16.22%, ...
... In this context, tourist destinations and tourism firms are doing their best to heighten the attractiveness of natural resources and quality of services (Gisore & Ogutu, 2015). The country also is blessed with many tourism potentials including an unpolluted natural environment with rich, beautiful and diverse tourism resources such as national parks and protected game reserves (Gisore & Ogutu, 2015;Wamboye et al., 2020). Moreover, the country also is politically stable than many other countries in Africa (Mathieson, 2014;WTTC, 2020). ...
... Moreover, the country also is politically stable than many other countries in Africa (Mathieson, 2014;WTTC, 2020). This makes Tanzania as a leading country in Africa with many tourist destination (Murphy, 2011;Wamboye et al., 2020). Tourist Circuit in Tanzania's tourism sector refers to a framework within which the different attractions are linked together based on factors such as accessibility, facilities, supply of resources and products (Mihalič, 2013). ...
Article
Tanzania’s northern circuit (Arusha and Kilimanjaro) has continued to be characterized by limited growth of firms’ in the tourism industry despite the initiatives made by government in stimulating both performance and growth of the industry. This paper was set out to investigate the influence of generic strategies (low-cost leadership, focus and differentiation) on performance of tourism firms in Tanzania’s northern circuit. Cross-sectional survey design was used in 40 tourism firms targeting a sample size of 120 respondents. However, only 100 participants making 83.3% of the valid questionnaires. The study employed explanatory sequential mixed method strategy, where questionnaires and interview guide were used to collect quantitative and qualitative data respectively. Quantitative data were analysed both descriptively and inferentially using SPSS while qualitative data were analysed thematically using content analysis. The study revealed that, the generic strategies positively influence by 62.8% the performance of tourism firms in the Tanzanian northern circuit while 37.2% is contributed by other factors which were not studied. The study concludes that, generic strategies influence performance of tourism firms; and further recommends that, tourism firms are required to implement generic strategies in order to improve their performance and search other factors which can influence the performance of tourism firms.
... Tatem et al. (2006) have also highlighted that the Government should be aware of the seriousness of infectious diseases that may enter through the global transportation network to effectively prevent them in, this is important to easily attract growing global tourists. Wamboye et al. (2020) studied the case in Tanzania and suggested that the Government and stakeholders in this country should focus on enhancing the infrastructure, reducing living cost as well as controlling exchange rate to promote tourism demand. To sum up, the summary of determinants of tourism and its impact on the economies can be divided into several groups as seen below: ...
... Firstly, some previous researchers argue that macroeconomic factors have both positive and negative impact on tourism demand. The following variables such as "exchange rate" (Chi, 2020;Irandoust, 2019;Dincer et al., 2015), "foreign direct investment" (Snieška et al., 2014;Endo, 2006), "economic sector" (Agiomirgianakis et al., 2018;Hüller et al., 2017),"household debt and household income", (Yap & Allen, 2011;Allen et al., 2009),"transportation cost", "consumer price index", and "cost of accommodation" are unfavourable and favourable factors relevant in attracting tourists while microeconomic factors such as: food, beaches, and shopping opportunities are beneficial factors that impact the decision making of tourists (Wamboye et al., 2020;O'Lemmon, 2017;Macneill & Wozniak, 2018;Markus et al., 2019). Prayag (2020) has also noted the necessary role of macroeconomics factors for tourism resilience research. ...
... To define the tourism demand, Lim (1997) makes a critical review from 56 previous articles, positing that most of the previous researchers applied the specific model, and then confirmed that tourism demand depends on exchange rate, transportation costs, the stability of market prices, and the income of a country. Wamboye et al. (2020) expanded this model by complementing 'infrastructure' and 'consumer price index' which provided evidence and then certified that a country's infrastructure plays an important role in tourism enhancing in Tanzania. Ghalia et al. (2019) applied the expanded Gravity model to test the role of political and Government stability in tourism demand. ...
Article
Full-text available
This study investigates the effect of infrastructure, economic sectors and its status, foreign direct investment and private investment, as well as the role of political stability in enhancing the tourism demand in the ASEAN region. The research collected the secondary data from the World Bank database and the UNWTO website of 10 ASEAN countries over 17 years from 2000 to 2016. Applying the generalized method of moments, this research found that, "private investment", "economic sectors", "exchange rate and infrastructure measured by "using of the internet" can increase the tourism demand of a country in the ASEAN region. This research provided evidence indicating that the "foreign direct investment" and "inflation" are two detrimental factors for tourist attraction. The major finding confirmed the positive role of "political stability" in increasing tourist arrivals. First, attracting tourists to a country always poses many challenges to its government. It has been observed in the past decades that though there were many documents, which confirmed that industry can help in promoting tourism, very few studies investigated the role of both agriculture and manufacturing sectors in tourism promotion. Secondly, there are only a few studies which verifies the stability of the political system to the tourism demand in the ASEAN region and that this variable (political stability) has the strongest impact.
... According to our best knowledge, no research study has investigated whether or not crude oil prices could have an impact on the number of foreign tourist arrivals. Furthermore, several studies looking at the effect of exchange rates on foreign tourist arrivals have been carried out (Vita, 2014;Wamboye et al., 2020). They found that there is an exchange rate effect on the number of foreign tourist arrivals. ...
... Tavares and Leitao (2016),Gibtiah et al. (2018), andWamboye et al. (2020). However, it contradicts that ofKosnan et al. (2012), Faidzin and Cahyono ...
Article
Full-text available
This paper seeks to examine the influence of crude oil prices volatility, the internet, and exchange rate on the number of foreign tourist arrivals in Indonesia. Using a time-series dataset from 1995 to 2018 and employing an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model plus an error correction model (ECM-ARDL), our research shows that in the long run, the internet has a positive influence on the number of foreign tourist arrivals. Every 1% rise in the internet, the number of foreign tourist arrivals rises by 0.49%. However, crude oil prices volatility and exchange rates do not significantly affect the number of foreign tourist arrivals. In the short run, there is a negative influence of crude oil price volatility on the number of foreign tourist arrivals. Meanwhile, the exchange rate positively affects the number of foreign tourist arrivals, meaning that the appreciation (depreciation) of the IDR exchange rate against the USD causes the number of foreign tourist arrivals to go down (up).
... There exist numerous studies that assess the relationship between tourist inflows and economic growth. There is another category of studies that focus on the determinants of tourism demand, such as Wambove et al. [30], Harb, and Bassil [31], and Mitra [32]. ...
Article
Full-text available
This paper evaluates the link between economic growth, renewable energy, tourism arrivals, trade openness, and carbon dioxide emissions in the European Union (EU-28). As an econometric strategy, the research uses panel data. In the first step, we apply the unit root test, and the results demonstrated that the variables used in this study are integrated I (1) in the first difference. In the second step, we apply the Pedroni cointegration test, and Kao Residual cointegration test, and we observe that the variables are cointegrated in the long run. The panel fully modified least squares (FMOLS), panel dynamic least squares (DOLS), and generalized moments system (GMM-System) estimator are considered in this research. The econometric results proved that trade openness and renewable energy decreased climate change and environmental degradation. The empirical study also found a positive effect of economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions. Moreover, tourism arrivals are negatively correlated with carbon dioxide emissions, showing sustainability practices of the tourism sector on the environment. Furthermore, carbon dioxide emissions in the long run present a positive impact, indicating that climate change increases. In this study, we also consider the recent methodology of Dumitrescu–Hurlin to observe the causality and the relationship between renewable energy, trade openness, economic growth, tourism arrivals, and carbon dioxide emissions.
... The rapid and continuous development of the tourism sector during the past six decades has lead the researchers to explore the economic and non-economic effects of tourism sector. However, most of the researchers have focused on the growth, employment, foreign exchange and balance of payments effects of tourism [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23]. The effects of the tourism sector on environmental issues have been on the agenda of both politicians and researchers for the last ten years. ...
Article
Full-text available
Tourism sector has become one of the largest export items in the globalized world and in turn an item of national income for the countries. However, the globally expanding tourism sector may lead to negative impacts such as environmental degradation, and detrimental effects on social and cultural values despite its positive effects on economic growth, employment, and balance of payments. In the study, we explore the short and long run effects of international tourism and real gross domestic product on environment proxied by carbon dioxide emissions in Mediterranean European states over the period of 1995-2018, using second generation cointegration and causality tests. The short run analysis revealed a one-way causality from real gross domestic product to carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, the long run analysis indicated that international tourism had a positive influence on carbon dioxide emissions in Italy and Slovenia and real gross domestic product had a positive influence on carbon dioxide emissions in most of the countries in the sample.
... To the best of our knowledge, to date, no research has investigated the relationship between EPU, consumer confidence and tourism flows to African countries, although some studies have modelled tourism demand for Africa (e.g. Adeola et al., 2018;Naudé and Saayman, 2005;Saayman and Saayman, 2008;Viljoen et al., 2019;Wamboye et al., 2020). However, those studies considered the traditional determinants of tourism demand such as income, exchange rate, transport costs and prices of goods and services but did not include EPU and consumer confidence in the econometric models. ...
Article
Uncertainty, which is the only certain thing about the future, influences economic agents, their behaviours and economic activity. Debates and concerns about policy uncertainty have intensified following events such as the financial crisis, Brexit and more recently, the Covid-19 pandemic. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of changes in economic policy uncertainty and consumer confidence in a set of major economies on tourism flows to African countries. Using data over the period of 2005-2019 and applying panel difference generalized method of moments method, our results show that a positive change in consumer confidence in Canada, China, France, Japan, Russia and the United Kingdom (UK) has favorable impact on tourism departures from these countries to 25 African countries. We also find that a positive change in uncertainty in Canada, Russia, Spain and the UK has negative effect on tourist departures from these countries to African countries. The implications of the results for tourism development in African countries are discussed.
... The effect of transportation cost is expected to be negative on tourism demand (Lim, 1997). An increase in transportation cost to a destination country will reduce the number of tourist visits to that destination country (Dritsakis, 2004;Muchapondwa & Pimhidzai, 2011;Wamboye et al., 2020). ...
Article
Full-text available
The demand for tourism in Indonesia continues to increase every year but cannot reach thepredetermined target. Studies on tourism demand have been done a lot, especially in Indonesia.The selection of the dependent variable in tourism demand is not problematic and acceptable,however, the selection of the independent variable is still unclear. This study aims to provide anappropriate Indonesian tourism demand model and analyze the determinants of tourism demandin Indonesia. The estimation technique used is a static panel regression. The results of this studyprove that there is multicollinearity in the tourism demand model when exchange rate and relativeprice are combined into one model, showing that relative price are good proxies in representingtourism price, and showing that substitution price are the main determinants of tourism demand inIndonesia. The policy implications recommended in this study are monitoring the economicgrowth of the origin countries of most tourists visiting Indonesia, improving the qual ity ofIndonesian tourism, and developing the Wonderful Indonesia program.
... Also, infrastructure is the major factor influencing tourist arrivals. Wamboye et al. (2020) in Tanzania find infrastructure and tourists' income are crucial determinants for tourism demand. The authors further added a strategy that supports the development of tourism packages that meet the needs of visitors from relatively high-income countries, as well as intentional efforts to advertise these goods in the target nations, should be implemented. ...
Article
Full-text available
Purpose The main purpose of the present research is to explore the possible effectiveness of information and communication technology (ICT), infrastructure development, exchange rate and governance on inbound tourism demand using time series data in India. Design/methodology/approach The stationarity of the variables is checked by using the ADF, PP and KPSS unit root tests. The paper uses the Bayer-Hanck and auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration to examine the existence of long-run relationships; the error-correction mechanism for the short-run dynamics and the vector error correction method (VECM) to test the direction of causality. Findings The findings of the research indicate the presence of cointegration among the variables. Further, long-run results indicate infrastructure development, word-of-mouth and ICT have a positive and significant linkage with international tourist arrivals in India. However, ICT has a positive and significant effect on tourist arrivals in the short run as well. The VECM results indicate long-run unidirectional causality from infrastructure, ICT, governance and exchange rate to tourist arrivals. Research limitations/implications This study implies that inbound tourism demand in India can be augmented by improving infrastructure, governance quality and ICT penetration. For an emerging country like India, this may have far-reaching implications for sustaining and improving tourism sector growth. Originality/value This paper is the first of its kind to empirically examine the impact of ICT, infrastructure and governance quality in India using modern econometric techniques. Inbound tourism demand research aids government and policymakers in developing effective public policies that would reposition India to gain from a highly competitive global tourism industry.
... Thus the sector is very instrumental in fighting poverty e.g. through job creation and development of market for traditional products (Kyara et al., 2021;Luvanga & Shitundu, 2003;Wamboye et al., 2020). Nevertheless, the Human Development Index (HDI) report ranks the country 163 out of 189 countries in 2019, with an actual HDI of 0.529, which is equivalent to PHDI (Planetary Pressures-adjusted HDI) of 0.526. ...
Article
Measurement of people’s sustainable wellbeing is important for monitoring and evaluating economic activities. Therefore, there is a need for a statistical approach capturing population’s sustainable wellbeing to complement measures of market activities. Since there are several dimensions of wellbeing, this paper pioneers the measurement of material wellbeing in Tanzania by studying the dynamic relationship between tourism development, agricultural growth, and per capita household final consumption expenditure during 1990–2017. The Vector Autoregressive model and Impulse Response Function reveal that tourism development has a significant positive impact on overall wellbeing of the population, but the country needs grassroots people-focused policies to translate tourism growth into improved wellbeing of the poorest. Further, promoting the production and consumption of tourism products integrates other sectors in the production process and leads to multiple benefits to the poor.
... For example, individuals using the internet in developed countries is substantially higher, in the USA, for example, the figure was 64.67% in , 71.69% in 2010, and substantially reached to 87.27% in 2017, in France was 39.15%,77.28% in 2010, and 80.50% in 2017(International Telecommunication Union's, World indicator, Statistics, 2017. Moreover, the level of development in ICT infrastructure in African countries have not reached the desired level to meaningfully affect competitiveness of the regions' tourism sector (Wamboy et al., 2020), which in turn may influence the level of tourism sector development in those countries. Based on above this study proposes that the relationship between ICT infrastructure and tourism development in Africa is non-linear and there by attempts to answer the following question: what is the threshold for ICT infrastructure to meaningfully contribute to the development of the tourism sector in the 10 top African destinations? ...
Article
Full-text available
Tourism has become an information-intensive business that heavily relies on ICT to provide information and conduct transactions for consumers of touristic products and services. Thus, ICT infrastructure would play a major role in the development of the tourism sector. This paper aims to investigate the threshold effect of ICT infrastructure on tourism sector development in top10 African tourism destinations including ; Botswana, Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa, Tanzania, Tunisia, Uganda. To do so, a double panel threshold regression model utilized over the period 2004 to 2017. The empirical results revealed a new perspective that there is a double-threshold effect of ICT infrastructure on the development of tourism sector, indicating a nonlinear effect of ICT infrastructure on the development of tourism sector in top 10 African tourism destinations. More specifically, the empirical results reveal that ICT infrastructure weakly and positively derives the number of intentional tourism arrivals and international tourist receipts when the level of ICT infrastructure is less or equal to the first threshold, while it strongly and positively derives the number of intentional tourism arrivals and international tourist when the level of ICT infrastructure is less or equal to the first and second thresholds. Thus, this paper provides important implications for policy makers, in that maximizing the benefits from information technology in developing tourism sector can be achieved when its level between certain critical threshold values.
... Conversely, some Sustainable High Yield Luxury Tourism Experiences 407 destinations strategically target tourists with a high willingness to pay because the revenue surplus can be applied to address sustainable development objectives (Grilli, Tyllianakis, Luisetti, Ferrini, & Turner, 2021). Some authors identify tourism offerings where a judicious focus on high yield tourism dynamics helps multiple stakeholders to optimise positive returns on tourism investments (Wamboye, Nyaronga, & Sergi, 2020). Examples include tourists whose high willingness to pay is driven by strong personal interest, such as conservation (Knowles, 2019), culture (Throsby, 2009), family events Polovitz Nickerson, Jorgenson, & Boley, 2016), learning and personal growth (Ndou, Mele, & Del Vecchio, 2019) and philanthropy (Stainton, 2016). ...
... Conversely, some Sustainable High Yield Luxury Tourism Experiences 407 destinations strategically target tourists with a high willingness to pay because the revenue surplus can be applied to address sustainable development objectives (Grilli, Tyllianakis, Luisetti, Ferrini, & Turner, 2021). Some authors identify tourism offerings where a judicious focus on high yield tourism dynamics helps multiple stakeholders to optimise positive returns on tourism investments (Wamboye, Nyaronga, & Sergi, 2020). Examples include tourists whose high willingness to pay is driven by strong personal interest, such as conservation (Knowles, 2019), culture (Throsby, 2009), family events Polovitz Nickerson, Jorgenson, & Boley, 2016), learning and personal growth (Ndou, Mele, & Del Vecchio, 2019) and philanthropy (Stainton, 2016). ...
... The authors found that mild wind could enhance the dissipation of heat by the human body and increase trail visitor feeling of comfort on hot summer days, which finally influence the number of visitors, while during the cold days and especially in northern countries wind becomes a disadvantage for outdoor recreation negatively affecting human thermal comfort. Furthermore, infrastructure development was found to be a crucial determinant for Tanzania's international tourism economy (Wamboye et al., 2020). Due to diverse stages of development, trail visitor expenditures and direct use values, trail-related recreation creates an economic impact on sales, output, income and employment. ...
... (iv) Economic growth: Tourism stimulates domestic production, employment and creates tax income (Blake, 2008;Sharma, 2006;Wamboyea, Nyarongab & Sergic, 2020). Indeed, several studies have reported the quantifiable positive effect of tourism on economic development in different African countries: Kenya (e.g., Honey & Gilpin, 2009), Mauritius (e.g., Durbarry, 2002), Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe (e.g., Manrai, Lascu & Manrai, 2020). ...
Article
OPEN ACCESS ARTICLE: The worldwide COVID-19 pandemic has affected the tourism sector by closing borders, reducing both the transportation of tourists and tourist demand. Developing countries, such as Tanzania, where the tourism sector contributes a high share to gross domestic product, are facing considerable economic consequences. Tourism interlinks domestic sectors such as transport, accommodation, beverages and food, and retail trade and thus plays an important role in household income. Our study assesses the macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19 on the tourism sector and the Tanzanian economy as a case study of an impacted developing economy. We use a computable general equilibrium model framework to simulate the economic impacts resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and quantitatively analysed the economic impacts.
... To proxy for price level, inflation is used. However, the literature shows that tourism consumption depends on transportation costs, especially outbound tourism (Wamboye et al., 2020). To account for this factor, the Cushing OK WTI spot price is collected from the US Energy Information Administration and taken in logarithm form as a proxy. ...
Article
The literature shows that natural disasters adversely affect international (arrivals) tourism. However, there seems to have been a lack of consideration of the dynamics of domestic and outbound (departure) tourism consumption in respect of natural hazards. To address this gap, this study uses a unique dataset of exposure to natural hazards and coping capacities for a global sample of 145 economies from 2011 to 2019 to examine the influence on domestic, outbound and total tourism spending. Exposure appears to have inverted U-shaped relationships with domestic and total tourism spending, and a U-shaped relationship with outbound spending. Coping capacities, in contrast, have U-shaped relationships with domestic and total tourism spending, with an inverted U-shaped relationship with outbound spending. Lastly, the analyses for four income groups and seven regions show some heteroscedasticity. The findings suggest that governments should build coping capacities for the recovery of tourism after disaster events. JEL codes: Z32, Z38, Q01, Q54
... Our results also highlight the vulnerability of sectors such as catering and tourism to pandemic lockdowns 18 , which are exposed to both very large decreases in demand and the propagation of losses from upstream suppliers such as food and business sectors 19 . For example, in scenarios of a global pandemic (for example, the global 40%-6-month scenario), very large reductions in domestic and international travel and tourism ( Supplementary Fig. 17) cause tourism in Jamaica to decrease by 56.3%, in turn reducing imports of beverages and tobacco products from the United States, which fall to 46.7% of pre-pandemic levels ( Supplementary Fig. 17). ...
Article
Full-text available
Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework. We find that supply-chain losses that are related to initial COVID-19 lockdowns are largely dependent on the number of countries imposing restrictions and that losses are more sensitive to the duration of a lockdown than its strictness. However, a longer containment that can eradicate the disease imposes a smaller loss than shorter ones. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A ‘go-slow’ approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns. Regardless of the strategy, the complexity of global supply chains will magnify losses beyond the direct effects of COVID-19. Thus, pandemic control is a public good that requires collective efforts and support to lower-capacity countries.
Article
Tourism growth is an important component for welfare improvement in the host destination, but it can be associated with environmental degradation. The aim of the current study is to assess the environmental impacts of tourism growth in Tanzania, using time series data for the period 1995 – 2017. It utilizes ecological footprints as a proxy for environmental damage, tourism receipt as an economic indicator, and primary energy consumption, urban population, and trade openness as control variables. The study employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Testing, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Granger causality test for analysis and the Wild Bootstrap approach to check the accuracy of the computed statistics. The VECM Granger causality test shows that in the case of Tanzania, international tourism revenue and trade openness compact environmental degradation, while urbanization and primary energy consumption accelerate it. Besides, while long run cointegration exists among the variables, the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis was not ascertained in Tanzania. Therefore, Tanzania must adopt more proactive urban planning strategies to achieve sustainable urbanization thereby improving the quality of the environment. Additionally, it is important for Tanzania to make strategic use of trade and tourism receipts, such as investment on renewable energy, to lessen dependence on fossil fuels, and improve environmental sustainability. So, the study opens new policy perspectives with wide international relevancy as outlined in the policy implication section.
Chapter
The COVD-19 pandemic has affected most sectors of the economy around the world leaving men and women unemployed, which has necessitated the need for carrier innovations. In Tanzania, agriculture and tourism are among the very important sectors of the economy and biggest contributors to gross domestic product (GDP). Beyond the pandemic, there are opportunities to capitalize through career innovations. Findings indicate that urban agriculture, genetics editing in livestock, bees and drones, and blockchain technologies can significantly improve the agricultural sector. Market research, diversification, up-skilling, responsible tourism, new hygiene standards, and encouraging business travel will enhance the tourism sector moving forward. It is recommended that balance for innovation and development, investing in strategic collaborations, moving from single point-based interventions, and focusing on the poor in innovations are important.
Article
Using the gravity model, this article investigates the determinants of tourist inflow to India. Several origin–destination (O-D) linked factors, such as Gross Domestic Product, Price index, Exchange Rate, Population, Distance, and Exports and Imports between India and its tourist origins, are explored. Using the panel dataset of 19 tourist originating countries to India from 2000 to 2018 the results of the study suggest that all the variables of the gravity model have statistically significant effects on tourist arrivals to India. In addition, we find tourism inflow to be highly price elastic. Additionally, we found a significant positive relationship between political stability and import ratio variable with tourism arrival. However, we found a significant negative relationship of export ratio with tourism arrival. The study findings provide initial ques to the policy makers and tourism industry players for developing strategies, policies, and regulations in line with increasing the inbound tourist flow to India.
Article
This article aims to empirically assess the impact of international remittances on domestic tourism expenditure (DTE) in Mexican households. Using Probit and Tobit regressions with instrumental variables and information from the 2016 National Household Income and Expenditure Survey, our findings show that international migrants’ remittances can improve DTE among Mexican households. Controlling for endogeneity of remittances, the results show a statistically significant and positive impact of international remittances on both the probability and the amount of money spent on domestic tourism. This suggests that international remittances provide the necessary resources to alleviate the liquidity constraints that restrict access to tourism activities for recipient households. This research also highlights the need to encourage public policy recommendations aimed at promoting tourism-related development in Mexico.
Article
In this study, we use a more accurate and comprehensive indicator of financial development to examine the link between financial development and tourist arrivals and expenditures in the top 20 tourist destination countries over the period of 1995–2017. By applying the panel augmented mean group method and controlling for other determinants of tourist arrivals, the overall results revealed that financial development positively influences tourism development. On the contrary, economic growth and countries price levels have no significant effects on tourism development. At the country level results; financial development has positive effects on tourism development in most countries. However, gross domestic product growth and consumer price index have a significant in few countries only. Therefore, the outcome of this study reveals that that visitors do not consider the development and the price level of the country but rather the facilities available including the facilities in the financial structures.
Article
Full-text available
This paper applies the gravity model to investigate the impacts of institutional quality coupled with political risks, distance, and socioeconomic factors on tourist flow. We find that institutional quality and absence of conflict are driving factors in fostering tourism flows for both source and destination countries. Our findings suggest that institutional reform can help boost the economies of countries with low-quality institutions. While institutional change is a positive development in its own right, our results suggest that it can also have important additional economic benefits for countries that are highly dependent on tourism.
Article
Full-text available
Tourism literature mainly argues that exchange rate volatility signals risk associated with a destination, which may cause tourists to refrain from visiting the destination and/or cancel their trips. This is especially true if the cause of volatility is seen as a result of political unrest or instability. However, not all volatility is due to country-specific factors and the volatility of the South African rand (ZAR) is an example of this phenomenon. Because of the floating nature of the currency, sharp depreciations in the value of the ZAR have been felt during crises times. Since the ZAR volatility is not always associated with adverse political conditions, it is postulated that volatility may influence spending in South Africa, and not only arrivals. This paper therefore investigates the relationship between exchange rate volatility and international tourism to South Africa. Volatility is modelled using GARCH models, while the influence thereof on tourism is modelled using an autoregressive distributed lag model (ADL) and a bounds test approach. Results support the notion that spending is more consistently influenced by volatility than arrivals.
Article
Full-text available
Germany and Great Britain are traditionally two of the most important sources of tourism for Greece. The purpose of this paper is to investigate changes in the long-run demand for tourism to Greece by these two countries. In order to explain the demand for tourism, we are using a number of leading macroeconomic variables, including income in origin countries (Germany and Great Britain), tourism prices in Greece, and transportation cost and exchanges rates between the three countries. Annual data from the three countries, covering the period from 1960 to 2000, are employed. Augmented Dickey–Fuller test for unit root is examined in the univariate framework and Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure is used to test the cointegration method and to estimate the number of cointegrating vectors of VAR model. Error correction models are estimated to explain German and British demand for tourism to Greece.
Article
Full-text available
This research follows micro-economic theory, according to which demand for a product is influenced by price, substitute prices and income, to determine the sensitivity of inbound tourist expenditure in South Africa to changes in these variables. Tourist expenditure per person per day from different origins forms the dependent variable. Using quarterly time-series data from 2003 to 2010, this article models inbound tourist expenditure from key source markets for the country. Previous research based on arrivals finds that South Africa is a relatively price-insensitive destination. However, this research shows that this is not the case for all markets. It mostly confirms the income elasticity of South Africa as a destination.
Article
Full-text available
This article provides a meta-analysis of a selected sample of 87 estimates from studies based on panel data techniques published through until 2012. The purpose is to obtain a summary measure of the effects of tourism on economic growth by applying models for both fixed and random effects. The results show a positive elasticity between GDP and tourism, although the magnitude of the effect varies according to the methodological procedure employed in the original studies for empirical estimates. In this sense, when estimates exclude other explanatory variables of economic growth, elasticities are overvalued.
Article
Full-text available
The price competitiveness of tourism is an important determinant of inbound visitor numbers. Price competitiveness indices can be used to explore questions of how a destination changes in this respect over time and the causes of any changes. A method of constructing tourism price competitiveness indices is outlined here. The method allows the various determinants of tourism price competitiveness, such as exchange rate and price changes, to be highlighted and their influence on the indices to be identified. The method also allows for comparison of a destination’s tourism price competitiveness relative to domestic tourism in origin markets and for its overall price competitiveness relative to major competitors. Results are presented for 19 tourism destinations during the period from 1985 to 1998 using Australia as a base case.
Article
Full-text available
Recreation specialization group differences in support for multi-attribute management restrictions using a stated preference choice approach were tested. A fractional factorial design produced 80 choice sets of paired trip comparisons. A three dimensional recreation specialization model (i.e., behavior, skill and knowledge, and commitment) was used to segment groups. As expected, advanced anglers were less interested in relaxing the more restrictive harvest restrictions currently in place that produce the fishing quality they enjoyed. Casual anglers showed a strong preference for catching more fish by relaxing current harvest restrictions. Each specialization group showed a notably different pattern of preference.
Article
Full-text available
This paper evaluates the potential impact of tourism on poverty in South Africa on the basis of recent survey data on international tourism spending patterns. It looks at three scenarios, using an applied general equilibrium model. The main finding is that the poor benefit very little in the short term from additional tourism income. A further finding is that domestic and international tourist expenditure affect the economy differently; both markets are therefore important. In essence, the research confirms that tourism receipts can be used as a tool to alleviate poverty, but in South Africa this must be supported by policies that focus on the labour market and human resource development.
Article
Full-text available
Africa's tourism potential is acknowledged to be significant but underdeveloped. This paper uses both cross-section data and panel data for the period 1996-2000 to identify the determinants of tourism arrivals in 43 African countries, taking into account tourists' country of origin. The results strongly suggest that political stability, tourism infrastructure, marketing and information, and the level of development at the destination are key determinants of travel to Africa. Typical 'developed country determinants' of tourism demand, such as the level of income in the origin country, the relative prices and the cost of travel, are not so significant in explaining the demand for Africa as a tourism destination. It is therefore recommended that attention should be given to improving the overall stability of the continent and the availability and quantity of tourism infrastructure.
Article
Full-text available
Tourism has become an important sector in Turkey as a growing source of foreign exchange reserves and employment over the last two decades. After being one of the most important tourist destinations for decades, Izmir lost its relative importance after the 1990s. With its historical, cultural values and nature, Izmir still has a significant potential for tourism. Given the importance of this sector for Izmir, this paper investigates the factors affecting the international tourism demand in Izmir using the time series data between 1980 and 2005. The double logarithmic model is used in estimation. Real exchange rates, the GDP per capita of OECD countries, the GDP per capita of Izmir and the transportation public capital stock of Izmir are the variables used to explain Izmir's international tourist arrivals. The empirical results show that the prices and income of the tourist-generating country are the main determinants of the demand for tourism. Income and price elasticities are above 1. Local factors related to Izmir's level of development and the transportation public capital stock have no significant effect. Policy implications derivable from this study suggest that government should encourage alternative forms of tourism development besides mass tourism.
Article
Full-text available
The objective of this paper is to investigate the long-run and short-run relationships among tourist arrivals to Malaysia and tourism price, substitute price, travelling cost, income and exchange rate for Asian7. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) is employed in the analysis, and the data cover the period 1970 to 2004. The empirical results show that in the long-run and short-run the tourism price, travelling cost, substitute price and income are the major determinants of Malaysia's tourism demand. The results also show that word-of mouth effect, world economic crisis (1997-98) and the outbreak of SARS (2002-03) significantly affected the demand for Malaysia's tourism in the short-run. The findings are consistent with the economic theory and the model passed all the diagnostic tests.
Article
Full-text available
Tourist arrivals and tourist expenditure, in both aggregate and per capita forms, are commonly used measures of tourism demand in empirical research. This study compares these two measures in the context of econometric modelling and the forecasting of tourism demand. The empirical study focuses on demand for Hong Kong tourism by residents of Australia, the UK and the USA. Using the general-to-specific modelling approach, key determinants of tourism demand are identified based on different demand measures. In addition, the forecasting accuracy of these demand measures is examined. It is found that tourist arrivals in Hong Kong are influenced mainly by tourists' income and 'word-of-mouth'/habit persistence effects, while the tourism price in Hong Kong relative to that of the tourist origin country is the most important determinant of tourist expenditure in Hong Kong. Moreover, the aggregate tourism demand models outperform the per capita models, with aggregate expenditure models being the most accurate. The implications of these findings for tourism decision making are that the choice of demand measure for forecasting models should depend on whether the objective of the decision maker is to maximize tourist arrivals or expenditure (receipts), and also that the models should be specified in aggregate form.
Article
Full-text available
The tourism industry has expanded in recent years due to internal and external environmental forces. These forces, income, trade, consumer price, and geographical distance are interconnected. Accounting for imperfect competition and increasing returns to scale, the new trade theory offers the explanation of dynamic gains from international trade. A large number of studies attempt to test the hypothesis that there is a link between trade and tourism. Most of the studies show that trade and tourism are positively correlated. This paper specifies static and dynamic panel demand models for tourism in Portugal and estimates demand equations using tourist inflow data for the period 1995-2006. We find that bilateral trade, immigration, border, and geographical distance between Portugal and countries of origin are the main determinants of tourism to Portugal. The dynamic panel data approach indicates that trade, population, and income are more important determinants than relative price.
Article
Full-text available
South Africa has experienced a significant increase in tourist arrivals over the past ten years. The challenge is to sustain this growth and therefore it is important to understand the factors that influence inbound tourism to South Africa. The purpose of this article is to identify the various determinants of inbound tourism to South Africa from different source markets (categorized in continents). Time series quarterly data from 1993 to 2004 is used in the analysis of tourist arrivals. Cointegration analysis in a multivariate framework is used and the authors find that income, relative prices and travel cost are strong determinants of tourist arrivals (as with other destinations). They also find that climate and capacity play significant roles.
Article
Full-text available
The reported study measures the impact of the economic determinants of the international demand for tourist services in Spain. A panel data set of seventeen countries over the period 1985–1995 is used. By using appropriate panel data techniques the effects of real per capita income, exchange rates and real prices on the demand for Spanish tourist services. The estimated elasticities are +1.40, +0.50, and -0.30, respectively. The negative effect of the Gulf War is also detected, with a coefficient of -0.15. These results are comparable to previous empirical studies for other countries.
Article
Full-text available
For sub-Saharan African countries with few evident opportunities to diversify export earnings away from primary commodities, tourism has emerged as an option to contribute to economic growth. This study uses input-output analysis to estimate the economic impact of tourism and assesses its potential contribution for the Tanzanian economy. The results show that tourism has a significant impact on output and incomes, especially taking into account the strong inter-sector linkage effects, although this has not been translated into corresponding employment gains. The tourism sector also contributes to tax revenue and foreign exchange earnings. Overall, tourism is shown to make a significant economic contribution. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Article
Full-text available
Over the decade of the 1990s, Africa has experienced a rise in tourist arrivals from 8.4 million to 10.6 million and receipts growth from $2.3 billion to $3.7 billion, respectively. According to the World Tourism Organization (WTO, 2006), the tourism industry in Sub-Saharan Africa enjoyed a robust annual market share growth rate of 10 percent in 2006. In spite of this, there are only few empirical studies that investigate the contributions of tourism to economic growth and development for African economies. Using a panel data of 42 African countries for the years that span from 1995 to 2004, this study explores the potential contribution of tourism to economic growth and development within the conventional neoclassical framework. The results show that receipts from the tourism industry significantly contribute both to the current level of gross domestic product and the economic growth of Sub-Saharan African countries as do investments in physical and human capital. Our findings imply that African economies could enhance their short-run economic growth by strategically strengthening their tourism industries.
Article
Scuba diving continues to be one of the most popular recreational activities in marine tourism, but its sustainability is currently threatened due to environmental, social, political, and economic risks. The East African Marine Ecoregion is renowned for its richness in marine fauna and flora, including some of the Indian Ocean's most diverse and abundant coral reef ecosystems, making it a popular destination for scuba divers. However, empirical evidence suggests that external risks (international and domestic) are impacting on dive operators in the region, creating the need to better understand these impacts. This research was therefore aimed at identifying the most significant of these external risks from the perspective of dive operators, via an explorative and descriptive study. The qualitative and quantitative primary data collected revealed that domestic and international economic and political risks have the greatest impact on dive operators in the East African Marine Ecoregion, and this trend is expected to continue. Environmental degradation of coral reefs, while not seen as a threat to dive operators at present, constitutes a key threat within the near future. In terms of the variation in perceived risk across the region, Kenya suffers most from social and political risks, Tanzania from environmental risks, Mozambique from political risks, and South Africa from economic risks. The research contributes to Africa's Blue Economy, which aims to guide African countries in sustainable use of the marine environment while harnessing its social and economic benefits. The findings create awareness of the impact of external risks on regional dive operators and their significance. Furthermore, they create an opportunity for decision makers and stakeholders in the region to craft solutions to improve the sustainability of the scuba diving industry.
Article
This paper considers three econometric models to determine the relationship between macroeconomic variables and tourism demand. Tourism demand is measured by the inbound visitor's population and also by on-the-ground expenditures. The database is an unbalanced panel of 218 countries over the period 1995–2012. There is evidence that an increase in the World's GDP per capita, a depreciation of the national currency, and a decline of relative domestic prices do help boost tourism demand. The World's GDP per capita is more important when explaining arrivals, but relative prices become more important when we use expenditures as the proxy for tourism demand. We cannot reject the hypothesis of a relative prices unitary elasticity of expenditures. Additionally, we have partitioned our data by income level and by Continent. Results are robust in the first partition, but less robust in the second, although the main conclusions still hold. Finally, we draw policy implications from our findings.
Article
This study makes a contribution uses the Gravity type approach for the panel data spanning from 1998 – 2009 to identify demand and supply factors in Malaysian tourism industry. The findings reveal that the market size for both destination and source countries, country that sharing border and common language with Malaysia are increases inbound tourist to Malaysia. On the other hand, the shorter the distance, the lower transportation cost, can also attract more tourists. The role of exchange rate and the cost of living are equally important as a depreciation of Ringgit Malaysia (RM) and lower in the cost of living attract more tourists in Malaysia. Other than demand factors, this study also includes supply factors such as room availability and various measure of infrastructures. The number of hotel room, quality in road infrastructure and air transport infrastructure seems important factor to offer to international tourist.
Article
This paper analyses Chinese tourist arrivals in Thailand during the last 25 years using various quantitative techniques. The number of Chinese tourists in Thailand has been increasing for two decades but since 2009 the trend has been particularly dramatic, with a 56.84% annual growth rate. The study found an increase of seasonality, but arrivals showed the same yearly pattern. Income elasticity indicates that Thailand will continue to benefit from China's economic growth. In addition, Chinese tourists respond less to a change in Thailand's prices than to changes in competitors' prices. In 2017, Chinese arrivals are forecast to reach 7.9 million with an annual growth rate of 19.98% since 2013. Therefore, Thailand should focus on capacity preparation for this market growth while monitoring the policies of its major competitors in the China outbound market.
Article
The purpose of the paper is to provide an econometric classification and evaluation of 100 published empirical studies on modelling international tourism demand, according to the recognition and type of omitted explanatory variables, number and type of proxy variables used, method of estimation, and use of various diagnostic tests of the auxiliary assumptions of the various models. An analysis of the adequacy of model specifications and the statistical deficiencies of existing empirical tourism demand models will permit a greater appreciation of the factors which determine changes in international tourism demand and will aid in forecasting future tourism demand.
Article
The paper estimates the impact of macroeconomic supply- and demand-side determinants of tourism, one of the largest components of services exports globally, and the backbone of many smaller economies. It applies the gravity model to a large dataset comprising the full universe of bilateral tourism flows spanning over a decade. The results show that the gravity model explains tourism flows better than goods trade for equivalent specifications. The elasticity of tourism with respect to GDP of the origin (importing) country is lower than for goods trade. Tourism flows respond strongly to changes in the destination country’s real exchange rate, along both extensive (tourist arrivals) and intensive (duration of stay) margins. OECD countries generally exhibit higher elasticties with respect to economic variables (GDPs of the two economies, real exchange rate, bilateral trade) due to the larger share of business travel. Tourism to small islands is less sensitive to changes in the country’s real exchange rate, but more susceptible to the introduction/removal of direct flights.
This study examines the relationship between tourism development and economic growth in Tanzania – using the newly developed ARDL-Bounds testing procedure. Specifically, the study attempts to examine the relevance of the tourism-led growth hypothesis using data from Tanzania. In an attempt to avoid the problem of omission bias that is always associated with a bivariate causality analysis, the study incorporates the real exchange rate in the bivariate model between tourism development and economic growth – thereby creating a simple trivariate causality framework between tourism, real exchange rate and economic growth. The empirical results show that whilst tourism development and economic growth Granger-cause each other in the short run, in the long run, it is economic growth that drives the development of the tourism sector in Tanzania. The results also show that there is a short run bidirectional causality between tourism development and exchange rate, and between economic growth and exchange rate in Tanzania. The long run results, however, show that there is a distinct unidirectional causality from exchange rate to tourism development.
Article
Tourism in southern Africa is based on the region's wildlife and nature assets and is generally environmentally sustainable, but the extent to which it contributes to other aspects of sustainable development — overall income generation or poverty eradication — is less well explored. In this paper, we use social accounting matrices to compare the economic impacts of foreign tourism in Botswana, Namibia and South Africa. Overall impacts on GDP range from 6% (South Africa) to 9% (Namibia). However, South Africa's economy is more diversified than its neighbours' and more of the goods and services used by tourists and by the tourism industry are supplied domestically. Consequently, the impact per Rand spent is considerably larger for South Africa than for Botswana or Namibia. The poorer segments of the population appear to receive shares of tourism income that are smaller than their share of overall income in all three countries.
Article
We use the almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model developed by Deaton and Muellbauer (1980) to estimate tourism demand elasticities for a number of Mediterranean countries (Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Spain and Turkey) in relation to tourists originating from the United Kingdom during the period 1963 to 2009. Using the restrictions imposed by theory, we find that the model is able to explain developments in market shares reasonably well, despite the large and at times sudden changes in market shares over the sample period. Our share estimates indicate that while Spain and Portugal managed to keep a stable market share over time, Malta and especially Italy lost market share to Cyprus, Greece and Turkey. Overall, we observe that Italy and Spain have the lowest own-price elasticities, whereas Greece, Portugal, Spain and Turkey are expenditure inelastic holiday destinations. We also improve over the traditional treatment of the AIDS model in the literature by studying the stability of the estimated elasticities over time using recursive estimates. The results indicate that some elasticities are indeed time varying and highlight the potential pitfalls of assuming fixed and stable elasticities over a long period, as is customary in the tourism literature.
Article
This paper investigates the pattern of inbound tourists' consumption in South Africa, examining four main intercontinental markets and five different tourism goods. The empirical investigation develops an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model and it extends recent research by allowing tourists to base their spending decision on the real effective price differences between South Africa and their home country. The results show that tourist spending in South Africa is a luxury good, and tourists react normally to a change in the relative price of goods. The cross‐price elasticities suggest that the preferences of different markets influence their view of substitutability and complementary effects between various products in South Africa.
Article
This paper examines the effects of currency devaluations on goods prices and foreign reserves for a small-open economy with inbound tourism. Tourism transforms non-traded goods into exportable goods. Devaluations yield an over pass-through to the prices of the non-traded tourism goods. This may hurt the trade balance and hence lead to a decline in foreign reserves for the economy.
Article
This study provides estimates of demand function for international inbound tourist expenditures in South Korea. Econometric models for eight origin countries were constructed using selected variables. The empirical results show that income is most significant for all countries in explaining the international demand for South Korean tourism. The variables of relative prices and real exchange rates were also found to be significant and elastic. However, the effects of the oil crises and the 1988 Olympic Games on the demand for Korean tourism appear to be insignificant. Alternative schemes were explored to deal with the problems of serial correlation and multicollinearity, which are frequently encountered in econometric models using time series data.RésuméFacteurs déterminants des influx de dépenses touristiques en Corée du Sud. Cette étude fournit des estimations des fonctions de la demande concernant les influx de dépenses touristiques en Corée du Sud. Des modèles économétriques ont été construits pour huit pays d'origine. Les résultats empiriques indiquent que le revenu est toujours la donnée la plus importante dans la demande internationale pour le tourisme sud-coréen. Les prix relatifs et les taux réels d'échange se sont aussi révélés importants et élastiques. Néanmoins, les effets des crises pétrolières et des Jeux Olympiques de 1988 sur le tourisme en Corée semblent insignifiants. Des modèles alternatifs ont été étudiés pour gérer les problèmes de corrélation en série et de multicolinéarité, problèmes souvent rencontrés dans les modèles économétriques qui utilisent des séries de données temporelles.
Article
An overview of tourism in general, and in Africa in particular, within GATS rules on Tourism is the starting point of this study to develop a number of considerations. Firstly, some of the bottlenecks and potential for Tourism development in Africa will be listed, as well as how the present state of WTO negotiations affect tourism development in the region. Secondly, this study will analyse commitments by African countries to WTO rules pertaining to tourism, trying to input this tentative outcome into a technical backstop for a continental negotiating stance by African countries for the maximum benefit of tourism to African growth
Article
The purpose of this article is to review a large number of published empirical studies on modeling international tourism demand and to integrate their findings according to the important explanatory variables used (income, transportation costs, and tourism prices), the proportion of significant findings, and the effect sizes of these major explanatory variables. A meta-analysis of 70 articles is provided, the articles being selected on the basis of their t-statistics, standard errors, F-statistics, and sample sizes. The primary purpose of the meta-analysis is to enable general conclusions to be drawn from the major published empirical studies regarding the relationships between international tourism demand and income, transportation costs, and tourism prices.
Article
The present study was designed to assess and segment local residents with respect to their attitudes, interests, and opinions toward tourism. An analysis of AIO data from a mail survey of 415 Florida residents uncoveredfive clusters of differing degrees of attitudes toward the state's tourism efforts. A strong anti-tourism, anti-growth segment in the state seems to indicate that state government should devote a portion of the state's tourism promotion efforts toward enlightening the residents regarding the positive multiplier effects of tourism. Additionally, some recommendations are discussed that could encourage this effort.
Article
This paper presents a comprehensive review of the econometric approaches for the analysis of tourism expenditure at individual level. The attempt to consider only regression models is novel in literature. The paper resumes 86 papers and 354 estimates of econometric models from data at individual level, ranging from 1977 to the early 2012. Discussion focuses on models used, dependent variables, explanatory variables by category and their effect on expenditure. The most frequently used explanatory variables were income, socio-demographic and trip-related, and were tested mainly through classical regression techniques (OLS, quantile, Tobit and two-step, logistic). Future research directions should concern the exploration of new evidence through novel methodological techniques, a more extensive use of psychographic variables and a stronger relation to economic theory.
Article
This paper investigates the relevance of the supply-side characteristics of countries as determinants of the growth of tourism. Particular emphasis is placed on the role of economic development as a driver of tourism over time. Much of the literature on tourism has focused on the effects of tourism as an income generator. However, to attract tourists, it may be necessary to have a minimum threshold of economic development. This paper examines whether economic development is relevant to tourists' decision making. A cross-sectional time series model which deals with autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity in the error term is proposed. First, the model considers a worldwide panel data set of destination countries for tourists from Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Spain, the UK and the USA. Then, the sample is divided into smaller areas according to geographical and GDP criteria to investigate differences within competing countries in the same area. The results show that for the worldwide case, economic development matters and makes a difference to tourists' decision making. Subsample analysis shows that in those countries with high GDP levels, differences in economic development are not significant, whereas in developing countries they are.
Article
The WTO region of Africa recorded an estimated 27.7 million international tourist arrivals in 2001, corresponding to an increase of 2.7% over 2000. International tourism receipts amounted to US$11.7 billion, or 9% over 2000. In this article regional results are analysed over time, as well as by purpose of visit, means of transport and region of origin. Data on international arrivals and receipts for international tourism are reviewed for the five African subregions and their individual countries.
Article
Estimating tourism demand has become a challenge among researchers, as identification of key determinants is important for policymakers at a time when tourism has become the world's largest industry. Using a theoretical framework based on the gravity model, this paper models inbound tourism demand for South Africa to estimate price and income sensitivities as well as the impact of other important factors that affect tourist flows, such as the location of markets and socio-political factors. Given the non-stationary but cointegrated nature of the panel data, panel cointegration estimation techniques are employed. The results show that tourists are sensitive to price changes in South Africa and also to tourism price changes in competing destinations. The level of development, tourism infrastructure, distance (or transportation costs), common border and language are also found to affect arrivals. The results also indicate the need to conduct estimation by regional groupings for a better understanding of different markets.
Article
This article presents an assessment of recent tourism performance in the countries of the Southern African Development Community region, as well as an evaluation of future prospects. It examines growth rates and source markets in developing a profile of current tourism to the region. It identifies and assesses the current and probable future impact of a range of issues and problems, which are serving either to help or hinder tourism development. It suggests necessary actions for facilitating the accelerated development of tourism. The article also analyses the countries' tourism development policies and their competitive standing with other parts of Africa and other world regions from the market's viewpoint. It evaluates future growth prospects for the region by relating these various strands of analysis to the assessments made in the World Tourism Organization's Tourism 2020 vision study. The conclusion is one of qualified optimism: the natural and sociocultural resources of the region match the growing tastes of the international tourism market but, without concerted action to improve international access and tackle the major (real and imagined) threats to tourist safety prevailing in the region, growth rates will continue to be below their potential. The region's physical remoteness from the military theatre of action consequent to the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States could well bring the countries of the SADC, and especially South Africa, some benefit from being perceived in tourist-generating markets as safe from these activities.
Article
Detailed descriptive classifications according to the decade of publication, type of data, sample sizes, model specifications, the types of dependent and explanatory variables used, and the number of explanatory variables used, are provided and reviewed for 100 published studies of empirical international tourism demand models. Most of the studies undertaken have been published in the 80s, have used annual data, and have been based on estimation of loglinear single-equation models. Tourist arrivals/departures and expenditures/receipts have been the most frequently used dependent variables. The most popular explanatory variables used have been income, relative tourism prices, and transportation costs.RésuméUn inventaire des modèles de la demande du tourisme international. L'article présente le compte rendu de 100 études publiées de modèles empiriques de la demande du tourisme international, avec des classifications descriptives et détaillées selon la décennie de publication, type de données, étendue de l'enquête, spécifications du modèle, types de variables dépendantes et explicatives et nombre de variables explicatives. La plupart des études ont été publiées aux années 80, ont utilisé des données annuelles et ont été basées sur l'estimation des modèles à registre linéaire et àéquation unique. Les variables qui ont été utilisées les plus fréquemment sont les départs/arrivées des touristes et les dépenses/recettes. Les variables explicatives les plus utilisées ont été revenu, prix relatifs du tourisme et coût des transports.
Article
International tourism is a fast growing industry generating half a trillion dollars in annual revenues and accounting for almost 10% of total international trade, and almost half of total trade in services. Yet, it has so far failed to receive the attention it deserves from mainstream economics. This paper attempts to provide an initial understanding of the determinants of international tourism. This paper claims that international tourism, as other forms of trade in services, is driven by unique factors of production, and may be better dealt with in a single industry study rather than in a general equilibrium trade model. In order to understand these determinants the world is viewed as a market of differentiated products, and a discrete choice estimation technique is applied to a large three-dimensional data set of tourist flows. It is shown that a relatively simple estimation technique, combined with a rich data set, can deliver reasonable substitution patterns. It is found, among other things, that political risk is very important for tourism, and that exchange rates matter mainly for tourism to developed countries. These have exchange rate elasticity of about one.
Article
This paper examines whether electoral motives and government ideology influence short-term economic performance. I employ data on annual GDP growth in 21 OECD countries over the 1951-2006 period and provide a battery of empirical tests. In countries with two-party systems GDP growth is boosted before elections and, under leftwing governments, in the first two years of a legislative period. These findings indicate that political cycles are more prevalent in two-party systems because voters can clearly punish or reward political parties for governmental performance. My findings imply that we need more elaborate theories of how government ideology and electoral motives influence short-term economic performance.
Article
Corruption in the public sector erodes tax compliance and leads to higher tax evasion. Moreover, corrupt public officials abuse their public power to extort bribes from the private agents. In both types of interaction with the public sector, the private agents are bound to face uncertainty with respect to their disposable incomes. To analyse effects of this uncertainty, a stochastic dynamic growth model with the public sector is examined. It is shown that deterministic excessive red tape and corruption deteriorate the growth potential through income redistribution and public sector inefficiencies. Most importantly, it is demonstrated that the increase in corruption via higher uncertainty exerts adverse effects on capital accumulation, thus leading to lower growth rates.
Africa's Macroeconomic Development and Structural Change in Africa
Africa Economic Outlook (AEO) (2018) "Africa's Macroeconomic Development and Structural Change in Africa". African Development Bank, Abidjan, Ivory Coast. Retrieved on May 1, 2018 from https://www.afdb.org/en/knowledge/publications/ african-economic-outlook/.
Determinants of international tourism demand for the Philippines: an augmented gravity model approach
  • R Deluna
Deluna R Jr and Jeon N (2014) 'Determinants of international tourism demand for the Philippines: an augmented gravity model approach'. Available at: http://mpra.ub.uni muenchen.de/55294/(accessed 06 April 2018).
Environmental and Social Management Framework for the Resilient Natural Resources Management for Tourism and Growth Project. P150523-PPA-C-07. Dar es Salaam
Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism (MNRT) (2017). "Environmental and Social Management Framework for the Resilient Natural Resources Management for Tourism and Growth Project. P150523-PPA-C-07. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Retrieved on May 1, 2018 from http://tawiri.or.tz/regrow-project/.
Can Tourism Help Reduce Poverty in Africa?” ODI Opinion No. 81
  • J Mitchell
  • C Ashely
Mitchell, J., Ashely, C., (2006) "Can Tourism Help Reduce Poverty in Africa?" ODI Opinion No. 81. June.
An empirical analysis of demand factors for Malaysian tourism sector using stochastic methods
  • Moorthy
Moorthy, R. (2014). An empirical analysis of demand factors for Malaysian tourism sector using stochastic methods. Review Integrative Business Economic Research, 3(2), 255-267.