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Int.J.Environ.Res.PublicHealth2020,17,1611;doi:10.3390/ijerph17051611www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph
Article
DaylightSavingTimeTransitions:ImpactonTotal
Mortality
MichaelPoteser1andHannsMoshammer1,2,*
1DepartmentofEnvironmentalHealth,CenterforPublicHealth,MedicalUniversityofVienna,
Kinderspitalgasse15,1090Vienna,Austria;michael.poteser@meduniwien.ac.at
2NukusbranchofTashkentPediatricMedicalInstitute,DepartmentofHygiene,230100Nukus,Uzbekistan
*Correspondence:hanns.moshammer@meduniwien.ac.at;Tel.:+43‐1‐40160‐34935
Received:7February2020;Accepted:29February2020;Published:2March2020
Abstract:InEuropeandmanycountriesworldwide,ahalf‐yearlychangingtimeschemehasbeen
adoptedwiththeaimofoptimizingtheuseofnaturaldaylightduringworkinghoursandsaving
energy.Becausetheexpectedneteconomicbenefitwasnotachieved,thediscussionaboutthe
optimalsolutionhasbeenreopenedwithashiftedfocusonsocialandhealthrelatedconsequences.
Wesetouttoproduceevidenceforthisdiscussionandanalysedtheimpactofdaylightsavingtime
ontotalmortalityofageneralpopulationinatimeseriesstudyondailytotalmortalityfortheyears
1970–2018inthecityofVienna,Austria.DailydeathsweremodelledbyPoissonregression
controllingforseasonalandlong‐termtrend,same‐dayand14‐dayaveragetemperature,humidity,
anddayofweek.Duringtheweekafterthespringtransitionasignificantincreaseindailytotal
mortalityofabout3%perdaywasobserved.Thiswasnotthecaseduringtheweekafterthefall
transition.TheincreaseindailymortalityasobservedintheweekafterspringDST‐transitionis
mostlikelycausallylinkedtothechangeintimescheme.
Keywords:daylightsavingtime;morningsunlight;totalmortality;timeseriesstudy
1.Introduction
InEuropeandmanycountriesworldwide,ageneralschemeofdaylightsavingtime(DST)has
beenimplemented.OnanightbetweenSaturdayandSundayinspring,clocksaresetforwardone
hourtotakeadvantageoftheprolongeddaylightwiththemainintentionofsavingenergy.Asthe
expectationsforreducednetenergydemandwerefinallynotmet[1,2],theEuropeanCommission
decidedin2018todiscontinueDSTregulation[3],openingthediscussiononpossiblealternativesin
memberstates.Recently,wehadaninspiringcoffee‐tablediscussionwithcolleaguesaftertheyhad
publishedascientificletteronthattopic[4].Theyexpressedtheirpreferencefortheimplementation
ofapermanentstandardtimebecauseofthenegativeimpactofalackofmorninglightforthe
circadiansystemandconcomitanttiredness,impairedattention,andperformance.However,there
wasageneralagreementamongusontheassumptionthatendingthebi‐annualtransitionmightbe
ofhigherrelevancethanthedecisionbetweensummer‐andstandardtime.
Beforeundertakingthisstudy,severaldatabases(PubMed,Cochrane,WebofScience)were
searchedforthetermʺday‐light(/daylight/daylight)savingtime(/DST)ʺ incombinationwith
ʺmortalityʺwithoutlimitations.Anumberofstudieshavebeenretrievedthatinvestigatedtheimpact
ondaylightsavingtimeinspecificpopulationsegmentsorforaspecificcauseofdeath.Veryfew
studiesanalyzedageneralpopulationandtotalmortalityinthiscontext.However,thesestudiesare
basedonshortertimeperiodswithaccordingimpactonstatisticalpower.
Disruptionofdiurnalcyclescouldcompromisethefunctionofvariousorganfunctions,leading
toincreasedmortalityriskslinkedtomanydifferentcauses,renderingall‐causemortalitya
reasonableendpoint.WefurtherhypothesizedthatapartoftheimpactofDSTtransitiononmortality
Int.J.Environ.Res.PublicHealth2020,17,16112of5
couldresultfromincreasedtirednesslinkedtoahigherriskofaccidentsandprofessionalmistakes
[5].
Coincidentally,wewereatthattimeinvestigatingtemporalchangesintemperature‐mortality‐
association[6].Forthatstudy,wehadconstructedaPoissonregressionmodelondailyall‐cause
mortalityfortheyears1970–2018inVienna,Austria.Wedecidedtoutilizethatdatatoinvestigate
theDST‐relatedimpactontotalmortality.
2.MaterialsandMethods
DSTwasintroducedinAustriain1980.Sincethen,aonehourtransitionwasperformedin
springandinfallbetweenSaturdayandSunday:in1980onApril6andSeptember28,intheyears
1981–1995onthelastSundaysinMarchandSeptember,andsince1996onthelastSundaysinMarch
andOctober.
MortalitydatawereobtainedfromthenationalAustrianStatisticsInstitute(StatistikAustria).
ForeachdeathoccurringinAustriasinceJan1,1970,thefollowinginformationwasprovided:Age
(inyears),sex,dateofdeath,mostrecentplaceofresidence(district),andprimarycauseofdeath.
ThelatterinformationwasprovidedasInternationalCodeofDiagnoses(ICD)version8(ICD8)until
1979,asICD9until2001,andasICD10from2002onward.After2015dataregardingthecauseof
deathwasnolongeravailableduetopersonaldataprotectionconcerns.Becauseofthechangesin
diagnosticcoding,thelackofinformationaboutthecauseofdeathforthelast4yearsandthelackof
ahypothesislinkingaspecificcauseofdeathsingularlytoDST,onlytotaldailymortalitywas
considered,amongthegeneralpopulationofthecityofVienna.
Meteorologicaldata(dailymeantemperatureanddailymeanrelativehumidity)wereabstracted
fromtheannualreportsoftheAustrianMeteorologicalService(ZentralanstaltfürMeteorologieund
Geodynamik,www.zamg.ac.at,sourcerecordingstationʺHoheWarteʺ,westernVienna).
InthecontextofDST,weexpectedimmediateeffectsofasinglehourofsleeplostinspring.
WeekendshiftworkerswouldalreadybeaffectedonSundays,othersonMondaysonly.According
toourcolleagues’theory[4]wewouldnotonlyexpectsuchimmediateoutcomes,butalsomore
prolongedeffectsinducedbyprolongeddarknessinthemorning.Thereforeweinvestigatedthe
followingdaysinrelationtoDST(scheduledat3amonSunday):(1)Sunday,(2)Monday,and(3)
Tuesday‐Fridayafterthespringtransition,(4)Sunday,(5)Monday,and(6)Tuesday‐Fridayafterthe
falltransition.WeincludedTuesday‐Fridaybeforethespring(7)andthefall(8)transitionasnegative
controlaswellasthesame4daysasin(3),butinthe1970s(9).
Wecalculatedtheriskratiosonthedaysandperiodsmentionedabove(1–9)inatimeseries
studyusingaPoissonmodelcontrollingfortemporaltrend,asine‐cosinefunction(wave‐lengthof
365.25days)mimickingastronomicalchangesinastronomicalsunshinedurationandthus
accountingfortheseasonalpatternofmortality[7],dayofweek,same‐dayrelativehumidity,moving
averageoftemperatureoverthelast14days,andsame‐daytemperature(linearandquadraticterm).
Becauseofthemainhypothesisthatthetime‐basedgovernmentalregulationofmorninglight
wouldbeariskfactor,controllingfornaturalchangesinsunshinedurationinthemodelisdeemed
thebestapproach.Astronomicalvariationinsunshinedurationisbestmodelledbyanannualsine‐
cosinefunction.
StatisticalanalyseswereperformedwithSTATA15.1[8].
3.Results
Aswehavereportedinmoredetailinourpreviouspaper[6],onaverage56.4deathsoccurred
perday.Inspiteofagrowingpopulation,theannualnumberofdeathsdeclinedfrom1970until
about2005andthenremainedfairlystable.Dailymortalitydisplayedaclearseasonalpatternwith
highernumbersinwinter.Onlyinthelast10or15yearsalsoasecondpeakinsummerappearedthat
waswellrepresentedinthemodelbythesame‐daytemperature.
ThePoissonregressionmodelprovidedagoodfitwithlittleevidenceforresidual
overdispersion.Analternativelyfittednegativebinomialregressionmodelprovidedverysimilar
estimateswithanalphaof0.0053.
Int.J.Environ.Res.PublicHealth2020,17,16113of5
InterestinglyahighermortalityonSundaysatDST‐transitioninfallwasfound,followedbyan
equallystrongprotectiveeffectonMondays(Table1).Beingabletosleeponehourlongerseems
beneficial,whilethehigherratesonSundaysareconsistentwithanincreasedriskofaccidentsin
peopleengagedinnightandweekendshiftwork.However,theincreaseindeathsonthatSunday
couldalsobeanartefactsimplyduetothefactthatthisdayisonehourlonger.Assumingnoeffect
onhourlymortalityratewewouldexpectanincreaseindailyratesbyabout4%asisindeedthecase.
Table1.Riskratiosbeforeandafterdaylightsavingtime(DST)transitions.
Day(s)RiskRatio(log(B))95%ConfidenceIntervalp
Sundayafterspringtransition0.9910.948;1.0360.686
Mondayafterspringtransition0.9790.938;1.0230.350
Tuesday‐Fridayafterspringtransition1.0281.006;1.0500.012
Sundayafterfalltransition1.0491.003;1.0970.035
Mondayafterfalltransition0.9410.898;0.9850.009
Tuesday‐Fridayafterfalltransition0.9960.974;1.0190.725
Tuesday‐Fridaybeforespringtransition1.0040.983;1.0260.713
Tuesday‐Fridaybeforefalltransition0.9960.974;1.0190.735
SameTuesday‐Fridayinspringin1970s0.9870.952;1.0240.484
BoldandItalic:p<0.05.
Thelossofonehourinspringhasnoimmediateadverseeffectontotalmortality,butbecause
theSundayinspringisonehourshorterwewouldindeedexpectareductionindailymortalityby
about4%(insteadofonlyabout1%).Gettingupearlierbyonehourinatimewithnoorlittlemorning
daylight,doesindeedincreasemortalityriskintheconsecutivedays(2.8%increaseindailymortality
perdayforTuesday‐Friday)aftertheintroductionofthesummertimeinspring.
4.Discussion
Contrarytoourownspontaneoushypothesiswedidnotfindclearevidenceofanimmediate
effectofthetransitionsondaily(orratherhourly)mortalityonSundays.Wedidfindarather
prolongedeffectwithhighermortalityratesintheweekafterthespringtransitionandamuch
weakerandshorter(Mondayonly)beneficialeffectafterthefalltransition.
Ourfindingsareinsupportofthehypothesisofourcolleagues[4]andconsistentwith
previouslyreportedincreasedrisksofmyocardialinfarctionintheweekfollowingthespring
transition[9]oreveninthefollowingtwoweeks[10].Thatsameworkinggroupalsoreportedtheir
ownfindingsregardingcirculatorydeathsfromtheVenetoregioninItaly.Similartoourresults,they
foundnoincreaseincirculatorydeathsontheMondaysafterthespringtransitionbutonthe
followingdays(withasignificantincreaseonTuesday)[11].Incontrasttoourfindings,theirmeta‐
analysis[10]alsoshowedahigherincidenceintheweeksfollowingthefalltransition.Lindenberger
etal.[12]foundmortalityduetovariouscausesofdeathincreasedafterthespringbutnotthefall
transition.Ourexpectationofincreasedrisksdirectlyafterthetransition[9,13,14]wasonlypartly
confirmedbyourdata.Acause‐specificanalysisofdeathswouldprovidemoredetailedinsightas
eveninthecaseofaccidentsdifferenttypesdisplaydifferentratesofoccurrenceafterDSTtransition
days[15].Yetwehopetocontributetothefierceon‐goingdiscussion[16]aboutoptimalregulations
fordaylightsavingtimeandartificialtimezones.
ViennaislocatedrathercentrallyintheMiddle‐Europeantimezone.Areductioninearly
morningsunlightmightevenaffectmorewesterlyregionsofthattimezonemoreseverely,aswas
shownfortrafficaccidents[17]andevenforcancerrisks[18,19].Evenaminorsleepreductionbyan
averageof19minutescouldleadtoseverehealthconsequencesincludingobesity,diabetes,
cardiovasculardiseases,andbreastcancer[20]withrelevantimpactsonhealth‐carecosts.Therefore,
theresultsfromViennamightevenunderestimatethetruehealtheffectsofDSTinotherregions.
5.Conclusions
Int.J.Environ.Res.PublicHealth2020,17,16114of5
Theresultsofourinvestigationclearlyindicatethatregulatorymeasuresontimeschemesdo
haveaquantifiableimpactonmortalityinaffectedpopulations.Thisfactshouldbeconsideredby
policymakersandcouldprobablyprovideanimportantargumentintheon‐goingdecisionprocess
[3]foranoptimalgeneraltimescheme.
Thisstudyisthefirstprovidingevidenceforgeneralpublichealthoutcomesofdaylightsaving
timetransitionsbasedonmultipledecadeobservations.Usingtotalmortalityasanegativeindicator
fortheimpactonpublichealth,wedemonstratethattransitionperiodsindaylightsavingtime
regulationsarelinkedtoariseintotalmortalityandshouldbeavoidedintheinterestofgeneralwell‐
being.
AuthorContributions:Conceptualization,H.M.andM.P.;methodology,H.M.;formalanalysis,H.M.;writing—
originaldraftpreparation,M.P.;writing—reviewandediting,H.M.andM.P.Allauthorshavereadandagreed
tothepublishedversionofthemanuscript.
Funding:Thisresearchreceivednoexternalfunding.
ConflictsofInterest:Theauthorsdeclarenoconflictofinterest.
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