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In Europe and many countries worldwide, a half-yearly changing time scheme has been adopted with the aim of optimizing the use of natural daylight during working hours and saving energy. Because the expected net economic benefit was not achieved, the discussion about the optimal solution has been reopened with a shifted focus on social and health related consequences. We set out to produce evidence for this discussion and analysed the impact of daylight saving time on total mortality of a general population in a time series study on daily total mortality for the years 1970–2018 in the city of Vienna, Austria. Daily deaths were modelled by Poisson regression controlling for seasonal and long-term trend, same-day and 14-day average temperature, humidity, and day of week. During the week after the spring transition a significant increase in daily total mortality of about 3% per day was observed. This was not the case during the week after the fall transition. The increase in daily mortality as observed in the week after spring DST-transition is most likely causally linked to the change in time scheme.
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Int.J.Environ.Res.PublicHealth2020,17,1611;doi:10.3390/ijerph17051611www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph
Article
DaylightSavingTimeTransitions:ImpactonTotal
Mortality
MichaelPoteser1andHannsMoshammer1,2,*
1DepartmentofEnvironmentalHealth,CenterforPublicHealth,MedicalUniversityofVienna,
Kinderspitalgasse15,1090Vienna,Austria;michael.poteser@meduniwien.ac.at
2NukusbranchofTashkentPediatricMedicalInstitute,DepartmentofHygiene,230100Nukus,Uzbekistan
*Correspondence:hanns.moshammer@meduniwien.ac.at;Tel.:+4314016034935
Received:7February2020;Accepted:29February2020;Published:2March2020
Abstract:InEuropeandmanycountriesworldwide,ahalfyearlychangingtimeschemehasbeen
adoptedwiththeaimofoptimizingtheuseofnaturaldaylightduringworkinghoursandsaving
energy.Becausetheexpectedneteconomicbenefitwasnotachieved,thediscussionaboutthe
optimalsolutionhasbeenreopenedwithashiftedfocusonsocialandhealthrelatedconsequences.
Wesetouttoproduceevidenceforthisdiscussionandanalysedtheimpactofdaylightsavingtime
ontotalmortalityofageneralpopulationinatimeseriesstudyondailytotalmortalityfortheyears
1970–2018inthecityofVienna,Austria.DailydeathsweremodelledbyPoissonregression
controllingforseasonalandlongtermtrend,samedayand14dayaveragetemperature,humidity,
anddayofweek.Duringtheweekafterthespringtransitionasignificantincreaseindailytotal
mortalityofabout3%perdaywasobserved.Thiswasnotthecaseduringtheweekafterthefall
transition.TheincreaseindailymortalityasobservedintheweekafterspringDSTtransitionis
mostlikelycausallylinkedtothechangeintimescheme.
Keywords:daylightsavingtime;morningsunlight;totalmortality;timeseriesstudy
1.Introduction
InEuropeandmanycountriesworldwide,ageneralschemeofdaylightsavingtime(DST)has
beenimplemented.OnanightbetweenSaturdayandSundayinspring,clocksaresetforwardone
hourtotakeadvantageoftheprolongeddaylightwiththemainintentionofsavingenergy.Asthe
expectationsforreducednetenergydemandwerefinallynotmet[1,2],theEuropeanCommission
decidedin2018todiscontinueDSTregulation[3],openingthediscussiononpossiblealternativesin
memberstates.Recently,wehadaninspiringcoffeetablediscussionwithcolleaguesaftertheyhad
publishedascientificletteronthattopic[4].Theyexpressedtheirpreferencefortheimplementation
ofapermanentstandardtimebecauseofthenegativeimpactofalackofmorninglightforthe
circadiansystemandconcomitanttiredness,impairedattention,andperformance.However,there
wasageneralagreementamongusontheassumptionthatendingthebiannualtransitionmightbe
ofhigherrelevancethanthedecisionbetweensummer‐andstandardtime.
Beforeundertakingthisstudy,severaldatabases(PubMed,Cochrane,WebofScience)were
searchedforthetermʺdaylight(/daylight/daylight)savingtime(/DST)ʺ incombinationwith
ʺmortalityʺwithoutlimitations.Anumberofstudieshavebeenretrievedthatinvestigatedtheimpact
ondaylightsavingtimeinspecificpopulationsegmentsorforaspecificcauseofdeath.Veryfew
studiesanalyzedageneralpopulationandtotalmortalityinthiscontext.However,thesestudiesare
basedonshortertimeperiodswithaccordingimpactonstatisticalpower.
Disruptionofdiurnalcyclescouldcompromisethefunctionofvariousorganfunctions,leading
toincreasedmortalityriskslinkedtomanydifferentcauses,renderingallcausemortalitya
reasonableendpoint.WefurtherhypothesizedthatapartoftheimpactofDSTtransitiononmortality
Int.J.Environ.Res.PublicHealth2020,17,16112of5
couldresultfromincreasedtirednesslinkedtoahigherriskofaccidentsandprofessionalmistakes
[5].
Coincidentally,wewereatthattimeinvestigatingtemporalchangesintemperaturemortality
association[6].Forthatstudy,wehadconstructedaPoissonregressionmodelondailyallcause
mortalityfortheyears1970–2018inVienna,Austria.Wedecidedtoutilizethatdatatoinvestigate
theDSTrelatedimpactontotalmortality.
2.MaterialsandMethods
DSTwasintroducedinAustriain1980.Sincethen,aonehourtransitionwasperformedin
springandinfallbetweenSaturdayandSunday:in1980onApril6andSeptember28,intheyears
1981–1995onthelastSundaysinMarchandSeptember,andsince1996onthelastSundaysinMarch
andOctober.
MortalitydatawereobtainedfromthenationalAustrianStatisticsInstitute(StatistikAustria).
ForeachdeathoccurringinAustriasinceJan1,1970,thefollowinginformationwasprovided:Age
(inyears),sex,dateofdeath,mostrecentplaceofresidence(district),andprimarycauseofdeath.
ThelatterinformationwasprovidedasInternationalCodeofDiagnoses(ICD)version8(ICD8)until
1979,asICD9until2001,andasICD10from2002onward.After2015dataregardingthecauseof
deathwasnolongeravailableduetopersonaldataprotectionconcerns.Becauseofthechangesin
diagnosticcoding,thelackofinformationaboutthecauseofdeathforthelast4yearsandthelackof
ahypothesislinkingaspecificcauseofdeathsingularlytoDST,onlytotaldailymortalitywas
considered,amongthegeneralpopulationofthecityofVienna.
Meteorologicaldata(dailymeantemperatureanddailymeanrelativehumidity)wereabstracted
fromtheannualreportsoftheAustrianMeteorologicalService(ZentralanstaltfürMeteorologieund
Geodynamik,www.zamg.ac.at,sourcerecordingstationʺHoheWarteʺ,westernVienna).
InthecontextofDST,weexpectedimmediateeffectsofasinglehourofsleeplostinspring.
WeekendshiftworkerswouldalreadybeaffectedonSundays,othersonMondaysonly.According
toourcolleagues’theory[4]wewouldnotonlyexpectsuchimmediateoutcomes,butalsomore
prolongedeffectsinducedbyprolongeddarknessinthemorning.Thereforeweinvestigatedthe
followingdaysinrelationtoDST(scheduledat3amonSunday):(1)Sunday,(2)Monday,and(3)
TuesdayFridayafterthespringtransition,(4)Sunday,(5)Monday,and(6)TuesdayFridayafterthe
falltransition.WeincludedTuesdayFridaybeforethespring(7)andthefall(8)transitionasnegative
controlaswellasthesame4daysasin(3),butinthe1970s(9).
Wecalculatedtheriskratiosonthedaysandperiodsmentionedabove(1–9)inatimeseries
studyusingaPoissonmodelcontrollingfortemporaltrend,asinecosinefunction(wavelengthof
365.25days)mimickingastronomicalchangesinastronomicalsunshinedurationandthus
accountingfortheseasonalpatternofmortality[7],dayofweek,samedayrelativehumidity,moving
averageoftemperatureoverthelast14days,andsamedaytemperature(linearandquadraticterm).
Becauseofthemainhypothesisthatthetimebasedgovernmentalregulationofmorninglight
wouldbeariskfactor,controllingfornaturalchangesinsunshinedurationinthemodelisdeemed
thebestapproach.Astronomicalvariationinsunshinedurationisbestmodelledbyanannualsine
cosinefunction.
StatisticalanalyseswereperformedwithSTATA15.1[8].
3.Results
Aswehavereportedinmoredetailinourpreviouspaper[6],onaverage56.4deathsoccurred
perday.Inspiteofagrowingpopulation,theannualnumberofdeathsdeclinedfrom1970until
about2005andthenremainedfairlystable.Dailymortalitydisplayedaclearseasonalpatternwith
highernumbersinwinter.Onlyinthelast10or15yearsalsoasecondpeakinsummerappearedthat
waswellrepresentedinthemodelbythesamedaytemperature.
ThePoissonregressionmodelprovidedagoodfitwithlittleevidenceforresidual
overdispersion.Analternativelyfittednegativebinomialregressionmodelprovidedverysimilar
estimateswithanalphaof0.0053.
Int.J.Environ.Res.PublicHealth2020,17,16113of5
InterestinglyahighermortalityonSundaysatDSTtransitioninfallwasfound,followedbyan
equallystrongprotectiveeffectonMondays(Table1).Beingabletosleeponehourlongerseems
beneficial,whilethehigherratesonSundaysareconsistentwithanincreasedriskofaccidentsin
peopleengagedinnightandweekendshiftwork.However,theincreaseindeathsonthatSunday
couldalsobeanartefactsimplyduetothefactthatthisdayisonehourlonger.Assumingnoeffect
onhourlymortalityratewewouldexpectanincreaseindailyratesbyabout4%asisindeedthecase.
Table1.Riskratiosbeforeandafterdaylightsavingtime(DST)transitions.
Day(s)RiskRatio(log(B))95%ConfidenceIntervalp
Sundayafterspringtransition0.9910.948;1.0360.686
Mondayafterspringtransition0.9790.938;1.0230.350
TuesdayFridayafterspringtransition1.0281.006;1.0500.012
Sundayafterfalltransition1.0491.003;1.0970.035
Mondayafterfalltransition0.9410.898;0.9850.009
TuesdayFridayafterfalltransition0.9960.974;1.0190.725
TuesdayFridaybeforespringtransition1.0040.983;1.0260.713
TuesdayFridaybeforefalltransition0.9960.974;1.0190.735
SameTuesdayFridayinspringin1970s0.9870.952;1.0240.484
BoldandItalic:p<0.05.
Thelossofonehourinspringhasnoimmediateadverseeffectontotalmortality,butbecause
theSundayinspringisonehourshorterwewouldindeedexpectareductionindailymortalityby
about4%(insteadofonlyabout1%).Gettingupearlierbyonehourinatimewithnoorlittlemorning
daylight,doesindeedincreasemortalityriskintheconsecutivedays(2.8%increaseindailymortality
perdayforTuesdayFriday)aftertheintroductionofthesummertimeinspring.
4.Discussion
Contrarytoourownspontaneoushypothesiswedidnotfindclearevidenceofanimmediate
effectofthetransitionsondaily(orratherhourly)mortalityonSundays.Wedidfindarather
prolongedeffectwithhighermortalityratesintheweekafterthespringtransitionandamuch
weakerandshorter(Mondayonly)beneficialeffectafterthefalltransition.
Ourfindingsareinsupportofthehypothesisofourcolleagues[4]andconsistentwith
previouslyreportedincreasedrisksofmyocardialinfarctionintheweekfollowingthespring
transition[9]oreveninthefollowingtwoweeks[10].Thatsameworkinggroupalsoreportedtheir
ownfindingsregardingcirculatorydeathsfromtheVenetoregioninItaly.Similartoourresults,they
foundnoincreaseincirculatorydeathsontheMondaysafterthespringtransitionbutonthe
followingdays(withasignificantincreaseonTuesday)[11].Incontrasttoourfindings,theirmeta
analysis[10]alsoshowedahigherincidenceintheweeksfollowingthefalltransition.Lindenberger
etal.[12]foundmortalityduetovariouscausesofdeathincreasedafterthespringbutnotthefall
transition.Ourexpectationofincreasedrisksdirectlyafterthetransition[9,13,14]wasonlypartly
confirmedbyourdata.Acausespecificanalysisofdeathswouldprovidemoredetailedinsightas
eveninthecaseofaccidentsdifferenttypesdisplaydifferentratesofoccurrenceafterDSTtransition
days[15].Yetwehopetocontributetothefierceongoingdiscussion[16]aboutoptimalregulations
fordaylightsavingtimeandartificialtimezones.
ViennaislocatedrathercentrallyintheMiddleEuropeantimezone.Areductioninearly
morningsunlightmightevenaffectmorewesterlyregionsofthattimezonemoreseverely,aswas
shownfortrafficaccidents[17]andevenforcancerrisks[18,19].Evenaminorsleepreductionbyan
averageof19minutescouldleadtoseverehealthconsequencesincludingobesity,diabetes,
cardiovasculardiseases,andbreastcancer[20]withrelevantimpactsonhealthcarecosts.Therefore,
theresultsfromViennamightevenunderestimatethetruehealtheffectsofDSTinotherregions.
5.Conclusions
Int.J.Environ.Res.PublicHealth2020,17,16114of5
Theresultsofourinvestigationclearlyindicatethatregulatorymeasuresontimeschemesdo
haveaquantifiableimpactonmortalityinaffectedpopulations.Thisfactshouldbeconsideredby
policymakersandcouldprobablyprovideanimportantargumentintheongoingdecisionprocess
[3]foranoptimalgeneraltimescheme.
Thisstudyisthefirstprovidingevidenceforgeneralpublichealthoutcomesofdaylightsaving
timetransitionsbasedonmultipledecadeobservations.Usingtotalmortalityasanegativeindicator
fortheimpactonpublichealth,wedemonstratethattransitionperiodsindaylightsavingtime
regulationsarelinkedtoariseintotalmortalityandshouldbeavoidedintheinterestofgeneralwell
being.
AuthorContributions:Conceptualization,H.M.andM.P.;methodology,H.M.;formalanalysis,H.M.;writing—
originaldraftpreparation,M.P.;writing—reviewandediting,H.M.andM.P.Allauthorshavereadandagreed
tothepublishedversionofthemanuscript.
Funding:Thisresearchreceivednoexternalfunding.
ConflictsofInterest:Theauthorsdeclarenoconflictofinterest.
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©2020bytheauthors.LicenseeMDPI,Basel,Switzerland.Thisarticleisanopenaccess
articledistributedunderthetermsandconditionsoftheCreativeCommonsAttribution
(CCBY)license(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
... Spring transitions were found to be associated with a shift in onset as well as a modestly increased risk of myocardial infarction (MI) 7,[9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16] , ischaemic stroke (IS) 17,18 , motor vehicle accidents (MVAs) [19][20][21] , atrial fibrillation (AF) 22 , patient safetyrelated incidents (SRIs) 23 and suicides 24,25 . Because these conditions represent a high proportion of general mortality, it was hypothesised that DST could impinge on general mortality patterns 26 . ...
... week 1; +2.3% week 2 post-DST). They are in striking contrast to the general scientific postulate that has driven much of the DST literature (i.e. a minimal deprivation of sleep would result in an increase in mortality) and to the conclusions of previous papers which emphasised the question of mortality 14,25,26 . ...
... One of them, whose methodology is somewhat comparable to this study, assesses the effects of DST on general mortality in the city of Vienna between 1970 and 2018, using a Poisson regression model 26 . It finds an increase in mortality of about 3% per day in the week following DST in spring (Tuesday to Friday) and an apparent weak protective role of Monday after the transition in fall. ...
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Daylight saving time (DST) consists in a one-hour advancement of legal time in spring offset by a backward transition of the same magnitude in fall. It creates a minimal circadian misalignment that could disrupt sleep and homoeostasis in susceptible individuals and lead to an increased incidence of pathologies and accidents during the weeks immediately following both transitions. How this shift affects mortality dynamics on a large population scale remains, however, unknown. This study examines the impact of DST on all-cause mortality in 16 European countries for the period 1998-2012. It shows that mortality decreases in spring and increases in fall during the first two weeks following each DST transition. Moreover, the alignment of time data around DST transition dates revealed a septadian mortality pattern (lowest on Sundays, highest on Mondays) that persists all-year round, irrespective of seasonal variations, in men and women aged above 40. How daylight saving time shift (DST) affects mortality dynamics on a large population scale remains unknown. Here, the authors examine the impact of DST on all-cause mortality in 16 European countries for the period 1998-2012.
... 12 Similarly, a daily 3% increase in the incidence of all-cause mortality has also been reported following the spring DST transition. 13 As a result, some authors have advocated for the removal of DST. 12 Acute cardiovascular events follow diurnal patterns with the majority of AMI and OHCA occurring between 6am and noon. 7 As the majority of fatal AMI events occur outside of hospital, 14 it is unclear if an increased risk of AMI with DST transitions also translates into an increased risk of OHCA. ...
... 17 In comparison, an Austrian study investigating national all-cause mortality data reported a 3% increased risk of mortality for each individual day in the week following the spring DST transition. 13 A study of atrial fibrillation hospitalisations following DST transitions reported a significant increase in hospitalisation in the week following the spring DST transition. 10 A possible explanation for the harm associated by the spring DST transition is the physiological effects caused by a reduction in sleep opportunity. ...
... Contrary to other work investigating the effect of DST transitions on acute cardiovascular events, our findings show both potentially harmful and protective effects from DST transitions. 12,13 A transient increase in the risk of OHCA during the spring DST transition appears to be entirely offset by a concomitant reduction in the risk of OHCA during autumn. However, our findings may provide an opportunity to target at-risk groups with preventive strategies. ...
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Background: Many studies have reported increases in the risk of acute cardiovascular events following daylight savings time (DST) transitions. We sought to investigate the effect of DST transition on the incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). Methods: Between January 2000 and December 2020, we performed an interrupted time series analysis of the daily number of OHCA cases of medical aetiology from the Victorian Ambulance Cardiac Arrest Registry. The effect of DST transition on OHCA incidence was estimated using negative binomial models, adjusted for temporal trends, population growth, and public holidays. Results: A total of 89,409 adult OHCA of medical aetiology were included. Following the spring DST transition (i.e. shorter day), there was an immediate 13% (IRR 1.13, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.25; p=0.02) increased risk of OHCA on the day of transition (Sunday) and the cumulative risk of OHCA remained higher over the first 2 days (IRR 1.17, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.34; p=0.03) compared to non-transitional days. Following the autumn DST transition (i.e. longer day), there was a significant lagged effect on the Tuesday with a 12% (IRR 0.88, 95% CI: 0.77, 0.99; p=0.04) reduced risk of OHCA. The cumulative effect following the autumn DST transition was also significant, with a 30% (IRR 0.70, 95% CI: 0.51, 0.96; p=0.03) reduction in the incidence of OHCA by the end of the transitional week. Conclusion: We observed both harmful and protective effects from DST transitions on the risk of OHCA. Strategies to reduce this risk in vulnerable populations should be considered.
... Havranek et al. [1] surveyed 162 estimates from 44 studies and found that the mean reported impact indicated only slight electricity savings (0.34%) during the days when DST was applied, with the electricity savings increasing in countries that are located farther away from the equator. The abrupt change in the timing of daily activities on the days of DST clock change has been shown to result in different health effects, e.g., increased rate of acute myocardial infarction [2], increased daily mortality [3], and excess risk of fatal road accidents [4]. On the other hand, positive health effects/benefits were reported due to increased time for leisure activities in the summer evenings [5]. ...
... Similarly, during the day dispersion processes are very efficient due to the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) instability, which is usually accompanied by vigorous winds, turbulence and photochemical reactions. Generally, these conditions result in suppression of concentrations of primary pollutants, e.g., NOx [6][7][8], and increase in the formation of secondary pollutants, e.g., O 3 . In contrast, the strong nocturnal atmospheric stability, weaker winds, low turbulence and lack of photochemical reactions promote buildup of high concentrations of primary pollutants and of their oxidation produces the night. ...
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... Daylight Saving Time (DST) transitions also represent discrete events altering regular scheduling due to the resetting of clocks. The transition of moving clocks forward by 1 h for DST in the spring reportedly contributes to shortened sleep and is associated with increased motor vehicle crashes, workplace injuries, heart attacks, and allcause mortality (Barnes and Wagner, 2009;Sandhu et al., 2014;Manfredini et al., 2019;Fritz et al., 2020;Poteser and Moshammer, 2020). However, changes to both sleep and alcohol use on specific holidays over the course of a year have not been comprehensively characterized. ...
... Additional research on the public health effects of such marked, acute changes in sleep patterns and alcohol use would help to elucidate the implications of a combination of changes that have been associated with improvements to health (e.g., increased sleep duration) and challenges to health (e.g., delayed sleep timing, increased alcohol use). For example, as described in the Introduction, DST transitions have been researched extensively, providing evidence that the Spring Ahead DST transition is associated with increased motor vehicle crashes, workplace injuries, heart attacks, and all-cause mortality (Barnes and Wagner, 2009;Sandhu et al., 2014;Manfredini et al., 2019;Fritz et al., 2020;Poteser and Moshammer, 2020). Holidays do not present the same acute perturbation of the timing of environmental light-dark cycles as DST transitions, though comparatively larger changes to sleep and alcohol use patterns were observed on several holidays (especially the days of and before Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year's), suggesting the need for future research to investigate the impact of these changes on health. ...
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... A more rapid adjustment is also reached by the variable (TiMo) with a less endogenous component [1,45,48]. In any case, both transitions to DST and back to ST have effects on circadian variables, corroborating that, in terms of circadian synchronization, DST should be abolished in favor of permanent ST since it matches the sun time more accurately and, therefore, it is more respectful of our internal rhythms [4,[68][69][70][71]. ...
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... The Spring transition to Daylight Saving Time (DST) has been associated with an increase in overall mortality (Poteser and Moshammer, 2020) and higher autopsy rates (Lindenberger et al., 2019). As most forms of desynchrony between the endogenous circadian clock and the natural environment, DST has been associated with unfavorable health outcomes, including reduced sleep duration and impaired sleep quality (Lahti et al., 2006;Rishi et al., 2020), cardiovascular accidents (Janszky et al., 2012;Janszky and Ljung, 2008;Kirchberger et al., 2015) and the likelihood of reaccessing Accident & Emergency services within 96 h of a first visit (Ferrazzi et al., 2018). ...
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