ArticlePublisher preview available

Can habitat prediction models contribute to the restoration and conservation of the threatened treeAbies pinsapo Boiss. in Southern Spain?

January 2021
New Forests 52(1)

DOI:10.1007/s11056-020-09784-4

Authors:

Rafael M Navarro Cerrillo

University of Córdoba

Joaquín Duque Lazo

Agresta S. Coop

Show all 6 authorsHide

We examined the association between habitat variables and the relative impacts of topographic microclimates as a valuable tool for restoration and conservation of Abies pinsapo in southern Spain. We used presence–absence data from A. pinsapo and 79 environmental variables and biomod species distribution models to describe the current and future species habitat across the Sierra de las Nieves Natural Park (southern Spain). A. pinsapo habitat was most strongly associated with microtopographic (solar incidence) and temperature variables, indicating climate-driven changes in microhabitat use. Most of the temperature variation among the study site was attributable to topographic microclimates rather than regional temperature differences, such that differences in microhabitat associations occurred principally between north- and south-facing slopes within the same region. The current potential distribution suggests that around 8.7% (56.44 km2) of the study area is highly suitable for A. pinsapo, with 9.7% (62.84 km2) being moderately suitable. Under different global circulation models and climate change scenarios, the net decrease in suitable habitat is predicted to be 93% of the current distribution by 2040, disappearing altogether by 2099. Our findings also show a sharp reduction of potential restoration areas (1.8% of the current areas). Microclimatic variation generated by the topography offers the microclimate-driven locations of habitat suitability which could shape species’ distribution restoration actions and their responses to environmental change. The approach presented here can provide a rapid assessment of the future conservation status of other important forest tree species in Spain, improving our understanding of the vulnerability of endangered species under climate change, and can be an effective tool for biodiversity conservation, restoration, and management.

Average response curve of Abies pinsapo obtained by the Random Forest Model including climatic, edaphic and macro and micro topographic variables ("complex environmental model", CEM). Grey band indicates the standard deviation between the response curves of different RF models

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a Current probability of Abies pinsapo occurrence within the study area and Sierra de las Nieves Natural Park, b optimal area of occurrence (> 80%) of Abies pinsapo within the study area and Sierra de las Nieves Natural Park. Both distributions are filtered according to topographic constraints

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Boxplots showing the median, interquartile range, and outliers of average minimum temperature (T_min), number of warm days (NDC) and maximum temperature in summer (Tmaxs) on Abies pinsapo presence plots under three representative pathways scenarios (sra1b, sra2 and srb1) and at three time periods (2040, 2070, and 2100) obtained by the MEAN Global Circulation Model (Average of BCM2, CNCM3, ECHAM5 and EGMAM). The upper and lower hinges correspond to the 1st and 3rd quartile, whiskers extend from the hinges (above and below) to 1.5 times the inter-quartile range and points beyond the whisker are outliers

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Comparison of the percentage variation on surface area of habitat suitability of Abies pinsapo, natural populations and afforestations. Percentage of surface area in comparison with the current present area of Abies pinsapo habitat suitability, natural populations and afforestation. Predicted by the Probability was obtained by the RF model

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Future probability of Abies pinsapo occurrence within the Sierra de las Nieves Natural Park study area under three climate change scenarios (SRA, SRB1, SRA1B) at three time periods (2011–2040, 2040–2070, and 2070–2099)

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Vol.:(0123456789)

New Forests (2021) 52:89–112

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11056-020-09784-4

1 3

Can habitat prediction models contribute

totherestoration andconservation ofthethreatened

tree Abies pinsapo Boiss. inSouthern Spain?

R.M.NavarroCerrillo, etal.[full author details at the end of the article]

Received: 15 November 2019 / Accepted: 21 February 2020 / Published online: 27 February 2020

Abstract

We examined the association between habitat variables and the relative impacts of topo-

graphic microclimates as a valuable tool for restoration and conservation of Abies pinsapo

in southern Spain. We used presence–absence data from A. pinsapo and 79 environmental

variables and biomod species distribution models to describe the current and future species

habitat across the Sierra de las Nieves Natural Park (southern Spain). A. pinsapo habi-

tat was most strongly associated with microtopographic (solar incidence) and temperature

variables, indicating climate-driven changes in microhabitat use. Most of the tempera-

ture variation among the study site was attributable to topographic microclimates rather

than regional temperature diﬀerences, such that diﬀerences in microhabitat associations

occurred principally between north- and south-facing slopes within the same region. The

current potential distribution suggests that around 8.7% (56.44 km2) of the study area is

highly suitable for A. pinsapo, with 9.7% (62.84km2) being moderately suitable. Under

diﬀerent global circulation models and climate change scenarios, the net decrease in suit-

able habitat is predicted to be 93% of the current distribution by 2040, disappearing alto-

gether by 2099. Our ﬁndings also show a sharp reduction of potential restoration areas

(1.8% of the current areas). Microclimatic variation generated by the topography oﬀers the

microclimate-driven locations of habitat suitability which could shape species’ distribution

restoration actions and their responses to environmental change. The approach presented

here can provide a rapid assessment of the future conservation status of other important

forest tree species in Spain, improving our understanding of the vulnerability of endan-

gered species under climate change, and can be an eﬀective tool for biodiversity conserva-

tion, restoration, and management.

Keywords Conservation· Habitat suitability· Mediterranean forests· Pinsapo ﬁr·

Restoration ecology· Threatened species

R. M. Navarro Cerrillo and J. Duque-Lazo contributed equally to this work.

Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https ://doi.org/10.1007/s1105

6-020-09784 -4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved.

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Systematic forest networks of health monitoring have been established to follow changes in tree vigor and mortality. These networks often lack long-term growth data, but they could be complemented with tree ring data, since both defoliation and radial growth are proxies of changes in tree vigor. For instance, a severe water shortage should reduce growth and increase tree defoliation in drought-prone areas. However, the effects of climatic stress and drought on growth and defoliation could also depend on tree age. To address these issues, we compared growth and defoliation data with recent climate variability and drought severity in Abies pinsapo old and young trees sampled in Southern Spain, where a systematic health network (Andalucía Permanent Plot Network) was established. Our aims were: (i) to assess the growth sensitivity of old and young A. pinsapo trees and (ii) to test if relative changes in radial growth were related with recent defoliation, for instance, after severe droughts. We also computed the resilience indices to quantify how old and young trees recovered growth after recent droughts. Wet-cool conditions during the prior autumn and the current early summer improved the growth of old trees, whereas late-spring wet conditions enhanced the growth of young trees. Old trees were more sensitive to wet and sunny conditions in the early summer than young trees. Old and young trees were more responsive to the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index drought index of June–July and July–August calculated at short (one–three months) and mid (three–six months) time scales, respectively. Old trees presented a higher resistance to a severe drought in 1995 than young trees. A positive association was found between stand defoliation and relative growth. Combining monitoring and tree ring networks is useful for the detection of early warning signals of dieback in similar drought-prone forests.

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Full-text available

Dec 2017

El pinsapo es un árbol endémico de la península Ibérica. Tiene su origen a finales del Terciario en el contexto de especiación de los abetos circum-mediterráneos. Sus poblaciones se localizan en la Serranía de Ronda. En este artículo abordamos un análisis del nicho ecológico del pinsapo: a partir de un muestreo sistemático, relacionamos registros de presencia y ausencia de la especie con un conjunto de variables ambientales explicativas. Ajustamos un modelo estadístico causal y generamos distintos modelos de distribución potencial basados en diferentes métodos predictivos. En el muestreo diseñado, hallamos registros de presencia entre los 700 y los 1700 metros sobre el nivel del mar, excepcionalmente fuera de este rango, siendo especialmente abundantes en torno a los 1200 m, con pendientes entre moderadas y escarpadas que promediaron el 35,22 %. Es un organismo claramente umbrófilo: más del 70 % de los registros aparecieron en laderas orientadas hacia el norte. El pinsapo siempre apareció en lugares con precipitaciones anuales por encima de los 800 mm, generalmente entre 1000 y 1200 mm. El nicho ecológico fundamental del pinsapo pudo ser explicado empleando tan sólo tres predictores no autocorrelacionados con datos sobre precipitaciones, temperaturas e incidencia solar. En concreto, el modelo de regresión logística ajustado con datos de presencia y ausencia alcanzó una R2 de McFadden = 0,95, una Especificidad = 0,98, una Sensibilidad = 0,98 y un TSS = 0,97. Los resultados de la modelización de la distribución potencial calibrados con diferentes algoritmos (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MARS, FDA, CART, RANDOM FOREST) y datos de entrada (presencia, presencia/ausencia, presencia/background), arrojaron una mayor capacidad discriminante de los algoritmos netamente predictivos, como RANDOM FOREST (AUC = 0,97; COR= 0,86) y MARS (AUC = 0,98; COR= 0,84), tanto con registros de presencia/ausencia como con registros de presencia/background. Por el contrario, los métodos descriptivos ofrecieron una peor capacidad discriminante, caso de BIOCLIM (AUC = 0,93; COR= 0,63). Finalmente, el modelo de consenso logró capturar la tendencia central de los modelos individuales ofreciendo una predicción espacial más consistente.

Forecasting oak decline caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi in Andalusia: Identification of priority areas for intervention

Article

May 2018
FOREST ECOL MANAG

Since the mid-20th century, trees in the Andalusian oak dehesa and forests have exhibited stress that often ends in the death of the tree. These events have been associated with Phytophthora cinnamomi, a soil-borne root pathogen, which causes root rot, bark cankers, decay and mortality – known as oak decline. Phytophthora cinnamomi is most virulent under high ambient temperatures combined with moist soils, i.e., in Mediterranean areas. We used presence/absence point locations of the Andalusian Network for Damage Monitoring in Forest Ecosystems (RED SEDA) pathogen survey and four categories of environmental variables – meteorological, edaphic, topographic and tree cover – to accurately predict Phytophthora cinnamomi current and future potential distribution within Andalusia, for a range of climate change scenarios, using ensemble species distribution models (SDMs). We assessed which categories of environmental variables explained the distribution of the pathogen, obtained accurate predictions for the current potential distribution of Phytophthora cinnamomi (AUC > 0.95, TSS > 0.70, Kappa > 0.65) and forecasted its future potential distribution. Subsequently, we classified the sites of the pathogen survey within the RED SEDA network in three zones according to the already-recorded presence of the pathogen and the current and future predicted probability of occurrence. Finally, we suggested phytosanitary management strategies for each zone.

Assessment of the future stability of cork oak (Quercus suber L.) afforestation under climate change scenarios in Southwest Spain

Article

Feb 2018
FOREST ECOL MANAG

Intensive afforestation programmes were developed in Spain during the end of the 20 th century and the beginning of the 21st, under the European Economic Community‘s (EEC) agricultural reforestation directives. However, these afforestations were performed without considering future climate change scenarios and now these areas have to cope with more-severe climatic conditions. We used ensemble Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to study the future stability of cork oak (Quercus suber L.) plantations established in Andalusia between 1993 and 2000. We used presence/absence data from the national forest inventory and RED SEDA Network, together with survival rate data from 2008 for cork oak afforestations planted between 1993 and 2000, to forecast the potential optimal distribution of cork oak and to model the distribution of the survival rate of cork oak afforestations. We evaluated the change over time of the volume overlap of the environmental space between the potential distribution and the afforestations. The ensemble modelling approach gave highly-accurate results for the current potential distribution of cork oak in Andalusia (AUC = 0.943, TSS = 0.718, Kappa = 0.718) and moderately-accurate estimations of the distribution of the survival rate of cork oak afforestations in Andalusia (RMSE = 0.290). We found that 10% of the cork oak afforestations planted between 1993 and 2000 were established in the optimal area of occurrence of cork oak (probability of presence above 70%) and presented an acceptable survival rate (>50%); also, the volume of the environmental space defined by cork oak afforestation decreased over time. We have confirmed the potential of SDMs to predict the distribution of the survival rate of cork oak afforestations and to assess their future stability. In the worst scenario, 3% of the cork oak afforestations would withstand climate change.

Can habitat prediction models contribute to the restoration and conservation of the threatened treeAbies pinsapo Boiss. in Southern Spain?

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