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ABSTRACT The competition in retail market structure has changed considerably in recent years with the effect of internet and online selling as well as changes in consumer needs & expectations. Although physical retail stores still have important place in the economy, online selling has grown up geometrically. The aim of this research is to identify the main actors and analyze the competition for consumer electronics in Turkey from a network perspective. So network connections are analyzed to see the big picture in competition for both traditional and online retailers. In the study, open source code program “Graphcommons (” will be used to prepare the network mapping and analyze five technology superstores and seven online retailers operating in the consumer electronics market in Turkey. The relations for both retail stores and e-commerce companies will be presented. Keywords : Competition, consumer electronics, network mapping, marketing, networks JEL Classification: M31, L81, L14
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Journal of Management, Marketing and Logistics -JMML (2016), Vol.3(3) Candemir, Zalluhoglu, Karsli, Diyadin
DOI: 10.17261/Pressacademia.2016321981
Aykan Candemir1, Erhan Zalluhoglu2, Cihat Karsli3, Asli Diyadin4
1Ege Üniversitesi.
2Ege Üniversitesi.
3Ege Üniversitesi. cihat.karslı
4Ege Üniversitesi.
The competition in retail market structure has changed considerably i n recent years with the effect of internet a nd online selling as well as
changes in consumer needs & expectations. Alt hough physical retail stores still have important place in the economy, online selling has
grown up geometrically. The aim of this research is to identify the main actors and analyze the competition for consumer electronics in
Turkey fr om a network perspective. So network connections are analyzed to see the big picture in competition for both traditional and
online retailers. In the study, open source code program “Graphcommons (” will be used to prepare the network
mapping and analyze five technology superstores and seven online retailers operating in the consumer el ectronics market in Turkey. The
relations for both retail stores and e-commerce companies will be presented.
Keywords : Competition, consumer electronics, network mapping, marketing, networks
JEL Classification: M31, L81, L14
Considering the consumer electronics in the world, the changing competitive conditions, while online retail low
price in terms of the experience of the product is a step ahead of traditional retailing (Euromonitor, 2015a).
Technological products developed in the retail sector, on the other hands electronic retailers has kept pace
with the development. Despite last two decade, use of electronic commerce has grown up in a lot of country
(Lu and Liu; 2015). For Turkey, it is expected that consumer electronics will register relatively more dynamic
volume growth, compared to the volume CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) realized over the review
period, mainly owing to the expected positive developments in smartphones and tablets sales. In particular,
continuously increasing demand for tablets from government institutions indicates dynamic forecast growth,
which is predicted to affect consumer electronics in Turkey positively during the entire 2015-2020 forecast
period. Globally Electronics and appliance specialist retailers remain the key retail channel for consumer
electronics, despite mounting pressure from internet retailers (Euromonitor, 2015b). The same situation can
also be observed for the Turkish market. Understanding the competitive forces, and their underlying causes,
reveals the roots of an industry’s current profitability while providing a framework for anticipating and
influencing competition (and profitability) over time (Porter, 2008). For most enterprises the power of intensity
of competition is the significant determinant of the competitiveness of the business. The study will be
conducted through an analysis of the consumer electronics sector in Turkey, through network mapping which is
one method of managing complex relationships and networks that is show that detail about the between
network connection. Also in-depth interviews with experienced managers (related with marketing and general
management) were carried out and evaluation of the Turkish market from competitive and consumer behavior
point of view is presented.
Year: 2016 Volume: 3
Journal of Management, Marketing and Logistics
(JMML), ISSN: 2148
Journal of Management, Marketing and Logistics -JMML (2016), Vol.3(3) Candemir, Zalluhoglu, Karsli, Diyadin
Most of researchers noticed and emphasized dual channel competition between online and traditional brick
and mortar (B&M) channels (Yan, 2010; Cassar et al. 2000; Tsay and Agrawal, 2004; Brynjolfsson and Smith,
2000). Online channels have advantage because of low search costs, no geographical differentiation, and low
barriers to entry- the frictionless internet economy should force down prices and drive some bricks-and mortar
retailers out of business (Gebhardt, 2010). Although the online channel advantages, technology superstores are
still preferred by the customer because of negative perception to online shopping. Also, still consumer prefers
to buy electronics from the physical stores because of finding charge and solving problem easily. Due to
dominant companies such as Amazon, eBay etc. competition is becoming more and more intense, online
channels have big data about the consumer which is why they have got resource that is provide a competitive
advantage (Chen et al., 2007). Brynjolfsson and Smith (2000) did an empirical study to examine prices for books
and CDs. They found the prices are 9–16% lower through online retailers than through traditional retailers.
Tsay and Agrawal (2004) studied dual-channel competition and coordination. They used a sales effort model.
Their results showed that both the manufacturer and the reseller have a advantage if they used online and
traditional channel. Yan (2008) studied channel competition between online and traditional channels. This
study showed that the firm's performance depend on product categories and market structures
Consumer electronics products have different features that there is a market for services related to them
(setup, repair). Some retailers like Wal-Mart and Target have not yet occupied that space, and online sellers
cannot easily provide such services (Carre et al., 2010). Researchers claim that the consumer electronics
industry will benefit from developing innovative products & expansions as well as cost-cutting measures,
process improvements & business restructurings (Hubenthall and Burr, 2008). The ability of consumer
electronics’ players to respond rapidly to challenges and seize opportunities arising from rapid change will be
the key to long-term competitive advantage. These forces include: Consumer’ changing needs and
expectations, increased regulatory scrutiny, cut-throat competition and millennial consumer behavior (Bajaj,
2011). For consumer electronics, consumers are buying more products but not buying more expensive
products, despite increasing annual disposable incomes. Prices have been reduced to drive volume sales, and
consumers now expect lower or discounted prices. While smaller items, like wearable electronics and
computer and peripherals are commonly purchased online, especially in developed markets, most mobile
phones are purchased as a part of a mobile plan contract, and hence consumers would rather visit a store
(Euromonitor, 2015a).
In Turkey basic marketing channels for technical consumer goods market include Hypermarkets / Supermarkets
& Department Stores (mass merchants), Consumer electronics Stores, Computer Shops & System Houses (CSS),
Telecom Specialists, Furniture/ Kitchen Specialists and Technical Super Stores. This can be seen in Table 1.
Table 1: Sales Channels of Technical Consumer Goods Market
& Department Stores
Consumer Electronics Stores
Computer Shops& System
Houses (CSS)
Super Stores
Point of Sale: ̃3K Point of Sale: ̃18K Point of Sale: ̃6K Point of
Sale: ̃17K
Point of
Sale: ̃600
Carrefour, Migros, Real, Kipa,
Tesco, Beğendik
Exclusive and Non- exclusive
Arçelik, Beko, Bosch, Profilo,
Siemens, Tefal, Samsung, LG,
Regal, Vestel, Philips, İhlas,
Exclusive Dealerships
Escort, Casper, Apple
Mobil Phone
Vodafone, Avea
Bimeks, Gold
Cash & Carry
Furniture/ Kitchen Spec. Non- exclusive
Journal of Management, Marketing and Logistics -JMML (2016), Vol.3(3) Candemir, Zalluhoglu, Karsli, Diyadin
Do It Yourself (DIY) Retailers,
Bauhaus, Koçtaş, Tekzen
Point of Sale: ̃5K
Exclusive and Non-
exclusive Dealerships
Ahşapsan, Alno,
Bianco,Demsaş, İntema
(Vitra), Lineadekor,
Scavolini etc.
Department Stores
Boyner, YKM, Evkur
Pure Online Players
Hepsiburada, Hızlıal, Ereyon
Source: Annual Teknosa Report (2015),, Access date::10.04 .2016.
According to the results of ICT Usage Survey in Households and Individuals carried out in April, 2015, 69.5 per
cent of households have access to the Internet at home. 67.8% of households had broadband Internet
connection. According to this, 37.4 per cent of households used fixed broadband connection (ADSL, cable, optic
fibre, etc.), while 58.7 percent of households used mobile broadband connection to access the Internet.
Proportion of households with mobile phone was 96.8% (TUIK, 2015).
Table 2: Sales of Technical Consumer Goods (TCG) market in Turkey (quarterly)
Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q4 15 /Q4
Q1-4 2015 Q1-4 15 /Q1-
4 14
Consumer Electronics
7,229 5,865 6,376 9,547 -2.1% 29,016 -5.2%
Photography (PH) 1,277 1,378 1,395 1,526 -5.7% 5,575 -6.9%
Major Domestic
Appliances (MDA)
7,993 7,685 8,441 8,863 4.9% 32,981 5.3%
Small Domestic
Appliances (SDA)
3,805 3,438 3,603 5,069 9.0% 15,914 8.8%
Information Technology
13,600 12,175 13,336 16,828 -0.3% 55,939 -0.9%
Telecommunication (TC) 11,789 11,467 12,161 16,117 8.5% 51,533 11.7%
Office Equipment &
Consumables (OE)
4,528 4,331 4,280 4,843 -0.1% 17,982 -0.2%
GfK TEMAX® Western
50,219 46,339 49,590 62,792 2.8% 208,940 2.9%
Source: GFK Temax (, Date of Access:10.04.2016)
In Q4 2015, the Turkish Technical Consumer Goods (TCG) market grew by 11.0%, compared with Q4 2014, and
the overall market amounted to TRY 11.2 billion is shown in Table 2. The Telecommunications (TC), Small
Domestic Appliance (SDA) and Office Equipment and Consumables (OE) sectors grew fastest, in terms of value.
The growth rate in Turkey’s Consumer Electronics (CE) sector slowed in the last quarter of 2015 and registered
an increase of 2.3%, and turnover of TL 1.6 billion, compared with Q4 2014. The sector closed 2015 at TK 5.5
billion, which represented an increase in sales of 5%, compared to the whole of 2014. Deloitte 2015 Global
Powers of Retail Sector according to the report, despite the economic difficulties increased income and profit
derived from retail (GFK Temax 2016).
As Porter (2008) stated intense rivalry among competitors may appear as an entry barrier of a strong force to
leave the market. Rivalry among existing competitors takes many familiar forms, including price discounting,
new product introductions, advertising campaigns, and service improvements. High rivalry limits the
profitability of an industry. However the analysis for the competition should not be limited only with the
companies in the sector. The network structure should also be analyzed including the parent companies,
partner companies and all other relations. The Indian Consumer Durables Industry can be characterized with
increasing share of organized retail, narrowed price gap and increased affordability of products, entry of large
players increasing competition, income growth and structural changes, critical success factors for
Journal of Management, Marketing and Logistics -JMML (2016), Vol.3(3) Candemir, Zalluhoglu, Karsli, Diyadin
manufacturers in the sector, rupee appreciation, distribution and service network, product technology (Ponde
and Muley; 2015).
Teknosa is established in 2000 with 100% Sabancı Holding and Sabancı Family capital. Teknosa has been the
pioneering electronics retailer in Turkey with the highest number of stores. Commencing operation with five
stores in 2000, Teknosa currently boasts 291 stores in 81 provinces in Turkey (;Access
date:15.04.2016). Technical Super Stores (TSS) grew below the market for the first time in 2014 due to their
disadvantage in consumer financing. Multichannel retailers such as Teknosa, the electronic leader with the
majority of the market, are increasingly seeing the advantage of selling online as well as in stores, Teknosa
introduced a subsidiary discount- electronic website,, with the aim of becoming the market leader in
online sales as well (Dean et al., 2013).
Figure 1: Channel Development and Electronic Retail Market
Source: Annual Teknosa Report (, Erişim Tarihi:10.04.2016)
Yan and Pei (2009) showed that the added retail services can effectively improve the channel performances
when the manufacturer opens an online channel to compete with its traditional channel.
Table 3: Total Sales Volume of the Online Retailer in Turkey
Name of Online Retailer Sales Volume 15%
Gittigidiyor 8.1% 7.2%
Teknosa 6.2%
Markafoni 6%
Migros 5.7%
In Turkey, 10.1 of the total market size seems to be examined when the e-commerce sector. While the
electronics sector with the largest share of 40%, clothing second with 16%, 13% the third with appliances and
furniture, books and music with 11%, food and beverage fourth in the last 2%. As it seen in Table 3, is market leader with a share of 15% in Turkey, gets its power because of
its diffused activities in the online retail sector. owns modern facilities of 14.000 and a
team of about 400 employees. It also, has gained 4 million enrolled members, 18,5 million total and 8,5 million
unique visitors. Through 36 different categories and more than 360.000 varieties of products,
obtains more than 20.000 orders each day. is uniquely positioned to lead the development of
e-commerce in the country. has been chosen as "One of the World's Top Trading Sites" by
Cnbc-e Bussiness Magazine in 2012. Moreover, ranked as the 18th company in Europe's 500
biggest retailers report prepared by "Internet Retail" (, Access
date:13.04.2016). Also is the second and the is the third in the sector. Although
Journal of Management, Marketing and Logistics -JMML (2016), Vol.3(3) Candemir, Zalluhoglu, Karsli, Diyadin
245 is very new in the online retailer market, it has increased its sales in a short time with an effective
promotion strategies.
Table 4: Use of Social Media in Turkish Consumer Electronics Market
The information have been taken from the corporate website. As it seen in Table4, Facebook is the most
preferred social media tool for both traditional and electronic retailers. Teknosa and Mediamarkt are
differentiated from other traditional retailers by focusing social media. Also in electronic channels hepsiburada,
gittigidiyor and n11 are the leader by using social media. It is interesting that electronic retailers are operating
on internet but some of them do not focus to use most important competitive tool of internet.
Table 5: The Number of Sorted News about TSS in Turkey’s Top Selling Newspapers
It is important to be a well-known company to effect the consumer’ perception and trust effectively. News
about the company is an important tool to get these advantages. In table5, only some of the consumer
electronics retailers’ news published, some of not. In this situation, it can be said that only some of the
consumer electronics retailers do critical implementations and newspapers make their news or not. It is really
interested but in other view, there will be a relationship between companies’ network and published news.
The high rate of technology evolution or revolution requires large investments without any guarantee of
proportional returns. So, the big players in the consumer electronics are global companies and these
companies have to sometimes cooperate with each other, for instance on standards, to reduce the risk to their
investments (Sodhi and Lee, 2007). Due to need for financial funds, links to banking sector is becoming an
important factor.
Journal of Management, Marketing and Logistics -JMML (2016), Vol.3(3) Candemir, Zalluhoglu, Karsli, Diyadin
The study will be conducted through an analysis of the consumer electronics sector in Turkey, identifying the
main actors. There are five leading TSS (Teknosa, Gold, Bimeks, Vatan and Mediamarkt) and seven leading
online retailers (Gittigidiyor, sanalpazar, hepsiburada, kliksa, ereyon, n11, hızlıal) selling consumer electronics
in the Turkish market.Three players (i.e. Darty, Best Buy and Electroworld) have left the market and Saturn
consolidated its operations with MediaMarkt since 2010 and the existing 5 TSS players are still too many to
operate efficiently and profitably in the Turkish electronics market. The reason for leaving the market was not
only because of the economic situation but also the fierce competition. The main idea of the study is based on
companies can gain competitive advantages by their network. Network mapping is one method of managing
complex relationships and networks that is show that detail about the between network connection. With this
method, different and complex data/information can be analyzed. A good network map will contain enough
information to provide important knowledge into the market system (USAID, 2011). So in the study network of
companies related with the main actors will be presented and their possible effects tried to explore. Graph
Commons is a collaborative 'network mapping' platform and a knowledge base of relationships.
Graphcommons members have been using the platform for investigative journalism, data research, civic
activism, strategizing, organizational analysis, systems design, exploring archives, art curating and what not
(Arıkan; 2012).
Within the context of the study, also in-depth interviews with experienced managers (related with marketing
and general management) were carried out between 21 March 2016 and 18 April 2016. Semi-structured
questions were prepared related to the study and the literature. Each interview took approximately 45-60
minutes and later analyzed by the authors. The participants were from the technomarkets (one of which was
from one company that left the Turkish market), widespread dealers of the leading companies for durable
goods and consumer electronics in Turkey and also from the leading supermarket/hypermarket chains
operating in Turkey. The questions covered the past, present and future evaluation of the Turkish market from
competitive and consumer behavior point of view.
4.1. Networks in the Market
In this study, the competition between traditional and online retailers in the Turkish consumer electronics
market is analyzed. Including 7 online and 5 traditional retailers, a total of 12 retailers were investigated. The
given statistics noticed that the market leader of traditional retailers is Teknosa and in e-
retailer category.
Journal of Management, Marketing and Logistics -JMML (2016), Vol.3(3) Candemir, Zalluhoglu, Karsli, Diyadin
Table 6: All connections in Consumer Electronics Network
Source: Drawn with
As it seen in the map, all the companies have their own different network. Some of the retailers have weak
networks and can be named as the lone warrior. Also when from the analyses, it can easily be said that they
have a less competitive advantage in the market except MediaMarkt and But market leaders in both
two channel, it can be seen that their networks are more complex than others. Also, their links connected to
other sector by their group. Mediamarkt is the only foreign consumer electronics retailer in Turkey. They are
connected outside of Turkey and they have careful strategy in Turkey. Also, is an interesting e-retailer
in this map. n11 is established in 2011, it is very new in sector but easily gained a considerable share and
attention in the market. It can be seen thatn11 has also links with Doğuş Group which is a well-known group in
Turkish business life. It also owns the third largest bank in Turkey (
south-korean-partnership-n11-com-reaches-120m-usd-trade-volume-in-9-months/, Access Date: 12.04.2016).
Journal of Management, Marketing and Logistics -JMML (2016), Vol.3(3) Candemir, Zalluhoglu, Karsli, Diyadin
To understand the competitive power of market leaders, the network maps should be analyzed in detailed. As
it seen above, both of the leaders dependent to banking sector by their holdings. Teknosa is not linked Media
groups but they have high financial opportunities with the network of their holdings. Also Hepsiburada is linked
to Doğan group which have influential media channels including televisions, radios, magazines etc. For the
competition in e- retailing companies need to be well-known and trusted, and media groups have very critical
role for this mission. Instead of viewing the market as a set of independent entities, the market should be
examined from a network and perspective (Domingos and Richardson; 2001).
4.2. Analysis of the In-Depth Interviews
When the development of Turkish consumer electronics market were examined an evolution from
independent shops to superstores can be seen. TEKNOSA was founded in 2000, BİMEKS in 1990, and VATAN in
KLIKSA in 2012, EREYON in 2006, HIZLIAL in 2007 and N11 in 2012. The variety of the products, the interest of
the consumers for the electronics was limited to TV sets, VCRs, Videos and Music. The penetration for
computers was limited until the last 10 years. Consumer electronics were majorly sold in the dealers for
durable goods (i.e. Arçelik etc.). The rise and the expansion of the superstores can be seen clearly from the new
millennium on. With the rise of the superstores many independent shops either had to leave the market
(bankruptcy, closing etc.) or had to focus on several product categories (i.e. phones and accessories). The
increasing interest of the consumers for electronics was very attractive for both foreign and domestic investors,
thus an increase in investment were seen but mainly for opening big stores. The companies like Arçelik tried to
gain share through brand extension (i.e. mobile phones, cameras etc.) but were not successful and started
selling well-known brands (i.e. Sony, Apple etc.). The year 2008-2009 was a breaking point not only for the
world economy but also for Turkey. The crisis in the global economy forced all the companies to revise their
strategies. The technical superstores in Turkey were initially located in distant places where consumers could
generally not go with public transportation. This was sometimes a successful strategy where the company
created a shopping attraction point. However the competition, changing consumer demands, problems in the
economy, and competitive attacks from small shops and dealers changed the preferences. These changes
resulted with the appearance small size shops at the city centers. Another strategy change was opening
franchise shops especially in towns and small cities. The main reason for this was the difficulty of suitable staff
for the new shops and the time needed for the adaptation to consumers and consumption patterns of small
cities and towns. Another significant change in the retail sector was the emergence and rise of the “click-only”
shops as well as “clicks-and-bricks”. Companies like TEKNOSA, Bimeks and Vatan became successful in the
“clicks-and-bricks” format with aggressive campaigns. and (now a part of became very successful.
Turkish market although being quite lucrative for investors however some foreign investors had to stop their
operations due to severe competition from domestic players. Although they tried to make differentiation
through additional services and product variety the reply from domestic players were tough. Although the
companies employed Turkish staff and spent considerable amount of money they could not be successful. One
of the major problems for the foreign firms apart from the competition was the insufficient localization and
customer relationship management. According to the results obtained from in depth interviews competitive
landscape can be summarized as follows:
Table 7: Summarized of in Dept Interviews As Poprtes’s 5 Force
Porter’s 5 Forces In-Depth Interview Analysis
Industry Rivalry Intensive competition.
Many players in the market with various sizes.
Different shop formats and sizes.
E-retailing has become a must.
Support of parent companies and networks
Barriers to Entry, Threats of New Entrants There is no legal barrier for entry.
Store renting is quite expensive.
Lack of skilled staff.
Hard to find convenient location.
Bargaining Power of Suppliers There are no major problems.
Journal of Management, Marketing and Logistics -JMML (2016), Vol.3(3) Candemir, Zalluhoglu, Karsli, Diyadin
Threat of Substitutes Store formats (TSS, Hypermarket/supermarket chains, dealers, small
shops etc.) are substiutes for each other. Small shops and dealers ar e
seen as more sincere.
Bargaining Power of Buyers Knowledge and information sources of consumers are high.
Competition ended with operating on tight margins.
WoM (Word of Mouth) marketing is effective
Localization is a must.
In general, there are lots of dimensions that effect the competition in retailing sector and everyday it is
becoming more challenging to gain and sustain competitive advantage. Also, for consumer electronics the
situation is tougher because of unprecedented change in technology and consumer preferences. Although
these challenges, current players operating in consumer electronics should respond to these situations and
seize opportunities to get sustainable competitive advantage. This research introduces to the concept of
network perspective and show how companies can get competitive advantage by using their network. As a
result of network mapping in data research, it is shown that strong companies in the market owe some of their
competitive power to their links in the network. Especially consumer electronics retailer which is connected
with group firms may become more successful and stronger than others. Additionally, companies which use
social media channels can increase their competitive strength more than others. Also, financial dimension is
also critical to manage the operations in retailer channel effectively. The successful combination of online and
offline channels will be a right choice of competitive advantage. More retailers are now struggling in order to
increase their share of the expanding online market and restructure themselves as multichannel.
Although the competition seems to be in the same sector on products and services, but those days are over
because the main rivals are compete in their online/offline marketing channel with their networks. Therefore,
focusing to the situation in a narrow perspective may not be enough to analysis the big picture. Today, instead
of companies competing against the other companies doing the same business in the market, network of the
companies will be competing. Thus if any company try to achieve competitive advantage, they have to utilize
their networks. The companies should use their networks effectively and support each other to gain and keep
their strength in the market. These networks will provide experience and learning which will contribute the
competitive power.
This study aims to analyse the competition in the consumer electronics retailing in Turkey using two different
methods. The managers of the companies in the sector may use the analysis for strategy formulation. It is
suggested that for further studies the coverage of the sample can be expanded and different methodologies
can be applied to gain more insight. Besides these, the quantitative analysis related to the activities and
interaction of the members of the networks can also be analysed. (10 punto, calibri, single space)
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The purpose – Accurately forecasting the demand for international health tourism is important to newly-emerging markets in the world. The aim of this study was presents a more suitable and accurate model for forecasting the demand for health tourism that should be more theoretically useful. Design – Applying GM(1,1) with adaptive levels of α (hereafter GM(1,1)-α model) to provide a concise prediction model that will improve the ability to forecast the demand for health tourism in Asian countries. Methodology – In order to verify the feasibility of the proposed approach, using available secondary and primary data covering the period from 2002 through 2009 obtained from the RNCOS “Opportunities in Asian Health tourism” report. Based on a unique and characteristics database for the health tourism industry, this study applies the adaptive α in a Grey forecasting model (GM(1,1)-α) to predict the demand for health tourism in Asian countries. Approach – Implementation of demand forecasting in health tourism is examined on the short-term and limited dataset, due to importance of a minimum the predicated error on underlying basis for the econometric model for health tourism markets. Findings – Key findings present that the optimal value of α in GM(1,1) can minimize the predicted error. Finally, in the case of the demand for health tourism in Asian countries, using GM(1,1)-α to predict error is clearly better than the use of the original GM(1,1) and time series models. The originality of this research – The originality comes from the analysis of the demand forecasting in health tourism of Asian countries, which provides an easy and accurate method to predict the demand for health medical tourism and ideas for further improvements in the sector of health tourism.
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Purpose There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non‐linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time‐series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self‐exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non‐linear models such as self‐exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level.
In developing countries of tourist destinations, an increase in medical tourism raises the wages in the medical tourism sector, thereby retaining skilled medical workers who otherwise leave the country. However, the expansion of medical tourism contracts the domestic healthcare services sector, causing lower labor productivity in the economy. Medical tourism can increase domestic welfare if the benefits from migration retention and tourism exports outweigh the losses in revenue and productivity declines.
The purpose of this paper is to provide a quantitative analysis of selling information products, aiming to determine the best sale channel and versioning strategy in the presence of network externality. An information product supply chain consisting of an information supplier, a retailer, and consumers is considered. In this supply chain, a Stackelberg game exists between the supplier and retailer, in which the supplier is the leader and the retailer is the follower. This paper analyzes the decision behaviors of the supplier, the retailer, and consumers in selling or buying information products. In our tractable analyses, consumer valuation for the product is uniformly distributed, and network externality intensity ranges from 0 to 1. A sale channel model is developed to maximize the supplier׳s profit based on the fixed-fee policy in the presence of the network externality. By comparing different channels, we determined the best sale channel and versioning strategy for a supplier. Our main findings include: A supplier prefers the versioning strategy when network externality exists in the market, whereas the single-version strategy is more preferable for an information product when network externality does not exist in the market. When two versions are released in a market with network externality, the best sale channel strategy is that the high-quality version is distributed through the direct sale channel and the low-quality version is sold through the retailing channel.
There has been a growing interest in better understanding the trends and determinants of health tourism activities. While much of the expanding literature on health tourism offers theoretical or qualitative discussion, empirical evidences has been lacking. This study employs Canada's outbound health tourism activities as an example to examine the trends in health tourism and its association with changing domestic health care market characteristics. A time-series model that accounts for potential structural changes in the trend is employed to analyze the quarterly health-related travel spending series reported in the Balance of Payments Statistics (BOPS) during 1970-2010 (n = 156). We identified a structural shift point which marks the start of an accelerated growth of health tourism and a flattened seasonality in such activities. We found that the health tourism activities of Canadian consumers increase when the private investment in medical facilities declines or when the private MPI increases during the years following the structural-change. We discussed the possible linkage of the structural shift to the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), which went into effect in January, 1995. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Globalization is a key challenge facing health policy-makers. A significant dimension of this is trade in health services. Traditionally, the flow of health services exports went from North to South, with patients traveling in the opposite direction. This situation is changing and a number of papers have discussed the growth of health services exports from Southern countries in its different dimensions. Less attention has been paid to assess the real scope of this trade at the global level and its potential impact at the local level. Given the rapid development of this area, there are little empirical data. This paper therefore first built an estimate of the global size and of the growth trend of international trade in health services since 1997, which is compared with several country-based studies. The second purpose of the paper is to demonstrate the significant economic impact of this trade at the local level for the exporting country. We consider the case of health providers in the South-Mediterannean region for which the demand potential, the economic effects and the consequence for the health system are presented. These issues lead to the overall conclusion that different policy options would be appropriate, in relation to the nature of the demand.
Interest in all aspects of health and wellness tourism has been growing in every part of the world. Businesses have responded with aggressive growth in the quantity and diversity of supply offered, especially in North America. Yet few countries have systematically assessed their supply and linked it to the changes in motivation and behaviour towards spas, health and wellness in their own population. This article brings together a number of secondary sources as well as research conducted by the author with the leading spa association in Ontario, Canada, in an effort to present an overview of the characteristics of the supply of and demand for spa, and the forces that continue to shape both aspects in that country.