Urbanisation and Climate Security: Towards Integrated Approaches for Cities

Abstract

Urban security is important to overall climate security, given exposure and vulnerability to climate impacts is ever more urbanised. Non-war related violence is a significant security concern in urban areas. Homicide rates due to non-conflict violence are particularly pronounced in Latin American and Caribbean cities, although on the rise worldwide. Beyond mortality statistics alone, a broad spectrum of civic, interpersonal and everyday urban violence potentially overlaps with the impacts of climate change to create mutually constituted vulnerabilities at the individual, household and community scales. These interactions have been poorly considered in both policy and research, but potentially undermine urban adaptation, security and development efforts. Solutions are needed which tackle unmet urban development needs and address security and climate risks together, both through programmatic interventions and urban planning initiatives.

Full text

Policy Brief
Urbanisation and Climate Security
Towards Integrated Approaches for Cities
FEBRUARY 2020
Arabella Fraser*, Gulnaz Anjum, Vera Bukachi, Nuha Eltinay & Amilcar Kraudie
Introduction: Urbanisation,
security and climate
Among ongoing debates about climate
change as a security concern, urban contexts
are an increasing focus. This reflects their
global demographic and economic power:
by 2050, two-thirds of the world’s population
will live in urban areas. Cities contribute
to more than 80 % of world GDP. Climate
change poses multiple serious risks to urban
citizens, infrastructures and assets through
sea-level rise, flooding, heat and water
Urban security is important to overall climate security, given exposure and vulnerability
to climate impacts is ever more urbanised. Non-war related violence is a significant
security concern in urban areas. Homicide rates due to non-conflict violence are
particularly pronounced in Latin American and Caribbean cities, although on the rise
worldwide. Beyond mortality statistics alone, a broad spectrum of civic, interpersonal
and everyday urban violence potentially overlaps with the impacts of climate change to
create mutually constituted vulnerabilities at the individual, household and community
scales. These interactions have been poorly considered in both policy and research,
but potentially undermine urban adaptation, security and development efforts.
Solutions are needed which tackle unmet urban development needs and address
security and climate risks together, both through programmatic interventions and
urban planning initiatives. We recommend military and diplomatic security advisors,
as well as those interested in transnational crime networks, liaise not only with
governments in countries of concern, but also work with representatives of cities and
local governments to address these underlying issues.
stress and the degradation of ecosystems.1
While all cities face climate risks, cities of
the global South are most challenged by the
pace of urban growth combined with a lack
of resources, leading to poor planning and
highly unequal processes of urbanisation.
How these climate risks in cities impact on
security is still under-researched. However,
non-war-related violence in urban areas is
a growing security concern and fatalities
1 Chu, E., A . Brown, K. Michael, J. Du, S. Lwasa,
and A. Mahendra (2019) Unlocking the potential
for transformative climate adapt ation in cities.
Background Paper prepared for the Global
Commission on Adaptation, Washington, DC
and Rotterdam.
* Contact author: arabella.fraser@nottingham.
ac.uk. T he author s would like to express their
gratitude to the Dutch government for funding their
participation in a dedicated panel at the Planetar y
Security Conference 2019 and the University of
Warwick, UK, for suppor ting a workshop in 2018
that gave rise to this collaboration.

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of such violence now outweigh those in
war settings, rural or urban.2 Much of this
violence finds expression in cities, where
armed violence is part of multiple forms of
civic and inter-personal violence, including
crime and gang violence, intersecting with
gender-based and intersectional violence.
Homicide rates from criminal activity remain
particularly acute in Latin American and
Caribbean cities but the experience of
multiple forms of violence by low-income
groups is marked across all regions.3
A panel at the Planetary Security Conference
2019 aimed to bring together Southern-
based researchers and practitioners to
explore the interlinkages between urban
non-conflict violence and climate security,
and the implications for policy responses.
This brief reflects their interventions.
Understanding the linkages
between urban violence and
climate change risks
Non-conflict violence and climate change
risks are both increasingly urbanised, but
the linkages between them have not yet
been well researched. Concepts of ‘fragile’
and ‘resilient’ cities capture the reality that
different risks are linked and concentrate
in cities, but do not themselves provide
a grounded evidence base from which to
draw conclusions for policy. The most direct
work on climate security at the urban scale
focusses on testing the role of climate
change in driving migration to towns and
cities and the resulting influence on conflict.4
The study finds that the influence of climate
change is heavily nuanced by economic and
political conditions. However, there is a need
to look more closely at the social context
in which demographic pressure influences
2 Gupte, J. (2016) ‘Creating safe and inclusive
cities that leave no one behind’. Policy Brief 128,
December 2016. IDS, Brighton.
3 Salahub, J. (2018) Social Theories of Urban Violence
in the Global South. Routledge.
4 Bahgat, K ., H. Buhaug & H. Urdal (2018) Urban
social disorder: an update. Peace Research Institute
Oslo (PRIO) , Oslo.
security, which is influenced by migration
but also by natural population increase in
cities. In addition, we need to recognise
other pathways that relate climate change
to urban conflict, as well as at the multiple
forms of violence that take place in urban
spaces. This broader agenda recognises
that climate change drives non-linear as
well as linear change, and therefore requires
multiple forms of investigation beyond
quantitative testing alone.
The example of Pakistani cities illustrates
how multi-scalar pressures interact within
the context of urban livelihoods and land
use to shape different forms of violence
for the most vulnerable. Migration from
provincial villages and towns to the
megacities like Karachi, Lahore and others
in the context of poor housing and weak
infrastructure adds additional stress on
individuals amidst scarcity of food and
pressure on livelihoods. Poor migrants
are particularly hit by lack of community
support in urban centres. In addition,
expanding high-rise buildings for the
sprawling middle class drives up land
values and creates exclusion. People are
losing their livelihoods due to shrinking
usable land, but also face inequality, social
exclusion and depleting infrastructures.
With 65% of Karachi’s population living in
informal settlements, vulnerable groups
may experience violent tenure insecurity
and threat of eviction. These issues are
further complicated by citizenship issues
for people of different backgrounds such as
Afghanis, Rohingya and Bengalis, who then
experience more vulnerability and violence.
Cities and towns – and not just their rural
hinterlands – are directly experiencing a
wide range of climate shocks and stresses.
As Box 1 from Pakistan shows, climate
changes such as heat stress interact with
a range of forms of violence. The outcomes
are shaped by pre-existing vulnerabilities,
in the context of unequal access to urban
resources by women and low-income
groups. Research from Kibera, the largest
informal settlement in Nairobi, shows how
women are more often at home during
flood events, and therefore also more likely
to be affected by associated crime and
insecurity.

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5
As well as understanding the role of climate
impacts in exacerbating insecurities, it is
important to understand the role of climate
change programmes in social contexts
where violence is present. Programmes for
adaptation are increasingly being undertaken
by municipal governments, covering a
variety of measures from the installation
of new physical infrastructure to land use
planning and water management. Where
such programmes are blind to the realities of
urban violence, they may not reach the most
vulnerable groups or, at worst, create new
forms of violence through eviction or unequal
resource management.6 In turn, insecurity
influences responses to climatic conditions
and events: the most cited example being
the failure of individuals and households to
5 Anjum, G. (2019). Impact of heat perception on
psychological well-being: Interaction of physical
environment with gender & socioeconomic class.
Unpublished manuscript.
6 Mirumachi, N., A. Sawas & M. Wor kman (2019)
Unveiling the securit y concerns of low carbon
development: climate security analysis of the
undesirable and unintended effects of mitigation
and adaptation. Climate and Development.
May 2019.
evacuate before, during or after disasters due
to fear of looting and theft and the lack of
trust in state institutions to uphold security.
The potential of integrated
approaches to achieve safe
andsustainable cities
There is a danger that security-led responses
to climate risk ignore the underlying
development issues that give rise to
vulnerability. In urban areas, this relates to
access to multiple forms of infrastructure
and services such as housing and transport
as well as access to employment. Initiatives
dedicated to tackling crime and violence
(e.g. through policing) or adapting to
climate change (e.g. through the provision
of information about risks) will continue to
be vital, but may need to be adapted to the
context of both security and climate risk.
Interventions that work on the social and
environmental determinants of risks and
vulnerability to both violence and climate
change together – which we refer to as
‘integrated’ approaches – might include
changes to urban infrastructure, planning
and design (for example, through the
Box 1: The impact of heat stress on violence in urban Pakistan
An increasing number of heatwaves in Pakistan, exacerbated by high urban densities
without green space planning, is a major risk for the urban population. In a recent study
conducted by Anjum (2019), cities like Karachi and Islamabad experienced sustained
higher temperatures and fewer colder days around the year. Both seasons were much
hotter during summers and much colder during winters. Through multiple online
monitoring studies, the study showed reported incidents of violence rising during the
hotter days. Participants reported higher road rage, higher levels of reported stress,
and higher aggression/tendency to aggress on the hotter days compared with their
monitoring scores on the colder days. The participants also expressed lower reported
agency, efficacy, hope, and empathy. However, the social context of the city is vital to
understanding the significance of these findings for citizens’ security. More nuanced
analysis of the data indicates two important interaction effects. Firstly, the effect of
gender. Women experienced more stress than men in the urban context, especially
in dense urban zones that are water and land stressed. Women were also subject
to more perceived violence on the hotter days when men were not able to provide
water. Secondly, the level of stress, aggression and violence interacts strongly with the
socioeconomic status of the participants. Participants of lower socioeconomic status
experienced more stress, aggression and violence compared to people of middle and
higher socioeconomic status.5

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creation of safe public spaces or better7
provision of basic amenities) or social and
cultural activities that foster community
cohesion. Evaluations of such interventions
are complex, however, and even for crime
and violence prevention alone there is a lack
of evidence from low and middle-income
countries about the impacts of improving
urban infrastructure and services on crime
rates.8 This is a critical area for further
research.
7 Christian Aid UK and CASM Honduras.
8 Cassidy, T et al (2015) Evaluation of a Cape Town
Safety Intervention as a Model for Good Practice:
A Partnership between Researchers, Community
and Implementing Agency. Stability: International
Journal of Securit y & Development, 4 (1): 27,
pp . 1-12.
Community-led initiatives have enormous
potential to address local risks from
both violence and climate change in an
integrated fashion. The example from
Honduras (see Box 2) shows how a disaster
risk reduction programme was able to
develop in vulnerable neighbourhoods
despite high levels of insecurity. The project
adapted traditional toolkits for disaster
response to a violent urban context,
finding concepts that allowed participants
to discuss the multiple risks they faced
and methods for doing this confidentially.
The project worked through a partner
with long-standing presence and trust in
the communities involved. The experience
raises the question of whether disasters
and climate may be an effective entry point
for tackling broader security risks, but also
points up the long-term nature of the work
Box 2: Supporting urban resilience in violent contexts: learning from Honduras
In 2014, Christian Aid partnered with Honduran national NGO partner, Mennonite
Commission for Social Action (CASM in Spanish) to pilot the roll-out of a Participatory
Vulnerability and Capacities Assessment (PVCA) in vulnerable, riverside communities
impacted by urban violence. Through implementing PVCAs, better under standing of
risks was aimed to both galvanize community participation and planning and, to a
lesser degree, influence largely inactive government authorities. The multi-year pilot
experience was implemented in 9 Bordos within San Pedro Sula, starting in mid-2014
through 2017 – though the achievements underpin CASM’s ongoing interventions in
the Bordos. All communities are characterised by high levels of gang activity and lack
of legal recognition by the state. As a result, residents are stigmatised and have limited
access to formal employment opportunities or government services.
The main objective of the project was to explore the possibilities of working in such
contexts using Christian Aid’s organizational vulnerability assessment tools. These
included the PVCA and the Integrated Conflict Prevention and Resilience [ICPR] tool,
through which the concept of resilience is used to bring together a holistic view of
risks and vulnerabilities. The methodology was limited by the situation of violence.
People cannot express themselves on the subject of insecurity without fear of reprisal.
Confidentiality was critical, and using the terms conflict prevention and violence
could make people frightened and defensive. Getting the participants out of their
environments through using these tools worked very well and was recommended so
they could express themselves freely. Power analysis was essential, mapping not only
the role and influence of armed groups but charting all forms of violence experienced
in the communities. Local committees were formed by the community, and one of
the major achievements of the project was considered to be the generation of a link
between local organisations, including youth and adult groups, and between local
organisations and the municipality in providing flood reduction infrastructure for the
area. The lack of a governing body made it extremely hard to locate funds for this.
Continued institutional presence by the project was needed to make gains, beyond
short-term project cycles.7

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that is needed in such complex institutional
contexts.9
Another initiative working on constructing
new public spaces in Nairobi, also in an
informal settlement, illustrates how to work
on conflict and climate security together. The
Kounkuey Design Initiative works alongside
communities to transform waste or unused
land into public space, reducing flood risk,
improving the protection of property and
empowering marginalised groups, especially
women and girls (see Box 3) .
Alongside community-based initiatives,
municipal-scale responses are vital to
achieve scale and equity. City assessment
exercises are a key starting point to guide
responses, although previous efforts to
devise resilience ‘metrics’ for cities of
the global South have suffered from lack
of data.10 Framing assessments around
integrated concepts such as resilience
can help highlight the interlinkages
between violence and climate change
9 KDI.
10 Rademaker, M., K. Jans, P. Verhagen,
A. Boeschoten, H. Roos & S. Slingerland (2019)
Making cities in conflict areas more resilient.
Netherlands Institute of International Relations
‘Clingendael’ and Center for Climate and Security.
May 2018.
and institutional deficits that contribute to
mutual vulnerabilities. The following example
from the Arab region shows that despite
data deficiencies, assessments can still be
conducted in ways that highlight gaps in
practice. The use of a resilience assessment
in Sudan highlighted the multiple forms of
violence and climate risk experienced by
the city’s internally displaced people. Further
work aims to use resilience assessments as
a conflict resolution tool, formalising dialogue
between different partners.
Gaps in knowledge and practice
A stronger, cross-regional evidence base is
needed for policy and practice that focusses
on the specific dynamics of non-conflict
violence and climate change risks in the
context of urban livelihoods and governance.
This will be particularly important for
growing secondar y and tertiary cities of the
global South, as they plan future investments
in planning and infrastructure. Significant
gaps in knowledge exist about the potential
of different approaches to urban climate
security, how better disaggregated data
and accessible technologies can support
vulnerability reduction efforts (especially
given the sensitivities of reporting violence)
and how to overcome governance challenges
at the urban scale to integrated planning and
practice, both within state institutions and
Box 3: Building Productive Public Spaces in Kibera, Nairobi
Kounkuey Design Initiative, KDI, tackles multiple risks to urban livelihoods through
working in partnership with under-resourced communities to build “Productive Public
Spaces”. KDI started its first Productive Public Space with residents in Kibera, Nairobi,
an informal settlement with poor access to sanitation and water, no formal waste
collection system, high housing density and precarious land tenure. Kibera is seen as
a ‘hotspot’ of non-conflict violence in Nairobi, with post-election violence, protests,
petty crime and gang violence associated with the settlement. Working alongside
communities to transform waste or unused land that is prone to environmental risk
such as flooding into a space for local empowerment, such spaces become welcoming
public spaces that provide basic amenities like clean water, toilets, schools and
playgrounds; offer income-generating assets like community gardens and kiosks; and
deliver educational and social development opportunities for residents. The process
both reduces climate risk and improves the protection of property. This has a particular
impact on women and girls, which has led to public space design undertaken by, with
and for women and girls.9

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with non-state actors. As the examples
used here from Karachi and Nairobi
show, the implications of insecurity
and climate risks are highly gendered.
In order to support reduced vulnerability,
gendered analysis is vital, and needs
to take into account male and female
perspectives.11
Initial recommendations
– Both local and international security
actors need to consider urban scale
responses and dynamics alongside
national and regional responses,
recognising that cities have dedicated
11 Arab Urban Development Institute.
governance structures and particular
social and environmental dynamics.
Close work with urban development
actors, such as local mayors and
ministries, and city-to-city networks is
needed to address vulnerabilities and
ensure marginalised groups are not
left behind.
– Guidelines developed by interna-
tional development agencies for
operationalising the 2030 goals in cities
and the New Urban Agenda should
consider potential win-win investments
in improving public safety and reducing
risks to climate change, and fostering
learning about such investments with
the city and local governments. The
potential to apply ‘do no harm’ principles
for new climate infrastructure invest-
ments should be explored to ensure
these do not exacerbate security risks.
Box 4: Supporting security at the municipal level using resilience indices
The MENA region experiences high levels of intersecting vulnerability from
displacement and climate change. Core risk drivers include rapid urbanisation and
poor urban planning. As part of UNISDR’s Making Cities Resilient campaign, 25 cities
participated in assessment consultations using a disaster resilience scorecard.
Through the workshops, the concept of human security was integrated across multiple
dimensions of resilience, to develop the capacities of local institutions to support the
most vulnerable urban communities. An important finding of the assessments was that
local experience and community knowledge have been used to fill in the gaps in coping
with disasters and managing risks, especially in the fragile contexts of conflict and
displacement. With the frequency and severity of disasters increasing, this is often not
enough to predict, model, and control and sustain disaster resilience actions, against
the uncertainty of climate change and weak urban governance.
Further work in Sudan explored how to measure and monitor city disaster resilience
for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in urban settings of protracted displacement.
The process of undertaking resilience assessment showcased the gap in building
resilience for IDPs and for the overall city. In the capital of Greater Khartoum, many of
those displaced following decades of conflict-induced displacement as well as flood-
related displacement stay with host families from the same ethnic background, leaving
IDP camps on the city periphery to seek better access for social services, livelihoods
and employment opportunities. Millions end up in fast-growing slum areas and, as
a result, face acute urban poverty and higher exposure to flood risk. The Khartoum
planning authority’s relocation plans and forced evictions may fur ther increase the
risk of communal violence in resettlement areas between local communities and those
newly displaced. The aim is that urban resilience assessments act as conflict resolution
tools, by assessing institutional capacities for resilience, pursuing resilient urban
development and designing solutions for IDP settlements to provide sustainable access
to landownership, critical infrastructure and security of tenure.11

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– Local governments will need to work
with national governments to develop
adequately financed strategies to
tackle climate insecurity, overcoming
silo-ed working, as well as working with
community-based organisations to reach
the most vulnerable and support the
scale-up of successful initiatives and
necessary infrastructures.
– For NGOs and community-based
organisations, vulnerability and capacity
assessments used for local-level
programming may need to be adapted
for contexts of urban insecurity, by using
concepts and methods to assess the
multiple risks that people face, by being
grounded in a strong power analysis
and through recognising the need for
anonymity and confidentiality in insecure
environments. Building local institutions
such as community groups can be
difficult, and potentially relies on building
trust over the long-term, which requires
longer-term finance than conventional
project cycles.

About the authors
Arabella Fraser is a Nottingham Research Fellow in the School of
Geography, University of Nottingham, UK. She co-directs the Urban
Violence and Climate Change Global Engagement Network (2020-2022),
funded by the UK’s Global Challenges Research Fund.
Gulnaz Anjum is an Assistant Professor of Social Psychology at the
Department of Social Sciences and Liberal Arts, Institute of Business
Administration, Karachi. Her research interests are in the inter-personal
dynamics of gender discrimination, climate change, urban violence and
intersectional vulnerability.
Vera Bukachi is Research Director and co-lead of Kounkuey Design
Initiative in Kenya. She oversees KDI’s research projects with a practical
focus on marrying environmental risk mitigation with economic and
social community priorities.
Nuha Eltinay is an Urban Resilience exper t, architect and spatial
planner working towards the implementation of the SENDAI Framework
for disaster risk reduction in the Middle East and North Africa Region.
Amilcar Kraudie is the Regional Emergency Manager (REM) for
Latin America and the Global Emergency Preparedness Lead with
Christian Aid, a UK-based charity that works in 37 countries in Africa,
Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America and the Caribbean.
About the Planetary Security Initiative
The Planetary Security Initiative sets out best practice, strategic
entry points and new approaches to reducing climate-related risks
to conflict and stability, thus promoting sustainable peace in a
changing climate. The PSI is operated by the Clingendael Institute
in partnership with Free Press Unlimited and The Hague Center for
Strategic Studies.
About the Clingendael Institute
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is a leading think tank and academy on international affairs.
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