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SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | (2020) 10:1874 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-58851-5
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Predation of young tortoises
by ravens: the eect of habitat
structure on tortoise detectability
and abundance
Amalia Segura
1*, José Jimenez1 & Pelayo Acevedo
1,2
The predation of young tortoise is considered a major cause of mortality for many tortoise species.
The predation by common ravens has been identied as being responsible for signicant decreases in
tortoise populations. Mediterranean spur-thighed tortoise hatchlings and juveniles in Maamora forest
(Morocco) were studied in order to describe the size/age class predation of common ravens on young
tortoises and infer the drivers of predation risk and population abundance. The results showed a high
level of predation on young tortoises (<75 mm carapace length) attributed to ravens in areas with low
vegetation cover, representing 100% of the cases of mortality (n = 147), but it was moderate in covered
areas (n = 19), representing 12–27%. The population structure of living juveniles diered signicantly
between covered and uncovered areas, thus suggesting that raven predation might modify juvenile
population structure. Finally, N-mixture models showed a positive relationship between (i) bare cover
and tortoise detectability that is only evidenced when the plot is far from a perch and (ii) population
abundance and shrub species-richness, being higher in uncovered areas. Our results improve the
knowledge on predation and survival on this critical stage in life, which is crucial for the conservation of
the Mediterranean spur-thighed tortoise.
Tortoise populations are characterised by high adult survival and low recruitment rates, which probably inuence
their demographic dynamics1. e lack of reliable information on recruitment complicates evaluations of the real
importance of young individuals as regards population demography2. In this respect, threats that limit recruit-
ment bouts may have an important regulatory eect on population dynamics3, especially when these threats
continue over long periods of time (e.g.4).
Hatchlings and juveniles are more vulnerable than adults owing to their smaller size and higher susceptibility
to environmental conditions, such as the temperature or rain, which aect their physiology, but also to vegetation
cover, which inuences thermoregulation, the availability of food and the risk of predation3,5,6. Indeed, the low
temperature and high rains of winter2,7 and the high temperature of summer8,9 are considered some of the most
common causes of mortality in hatchlings. e predation of young tortoises –their shell is so or not suciently
solid to protect them from predators– by mammals7,10,11 and birds12–14 is also considered a major cause of mortal-
ity in many tortoise species, which was particularly studied in North America7,10,12,15,16.
e common raven Corvus corax is considered to be one of the most relevant predators of tortoises and
is responsible for 70–91% of the mortality of desert tortoises Gopherus agassizii4,13,17. Both single individuals
and breeding pairs have been identied as responsible for signicant decreases in tortoise populations, also in
addition to modifying population structure by aecting juvenile size/age classes.12,18,19 Indeed, its high numbers
and opportunistic feeding habits have severe impacts on its target prey, whose population size may be reduced
without aecting the condition of the predator, which will switch to another prey when this resource becomes
scarce (e.g.4). But the prey species has mechanisms by which to reduce predation. Vegetation cover has been
documented as a key determinant as regards reducing young tortoises’ detectability, since it facilitates their cam-
ouage20. Crypsis has anti-predatory benets, and refuge areas, such as those areas dominated by vegetation
cover, may reduce the risk of predation. It has also been documented that ravens’ predation on tortoises diers
1Instituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos, IREC (CSIC-UCLM-JCCM). Ronda de Toledo, 12, 13071, Ciudad
Real, Spain. 2Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Agrónomos (UCLM), Ronda de Calatrava, 7, 13071, Ciudad Real,
Spain. *email: amaliasegura@gmail.com
OPEN
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according to their spatial distribution of single individuals or breeding pairs. Tortoise predation is greater in
adjacent human developments, which attract large numbers of single ravens, and in adjacent successful nests
of breeding pairs throughout human developed and undeveloped areas4. Even the success of juvenile tortoise
releases is compromised in the head-starting programs included in conservation strategies owing to the fact that
certain ravens are attached to the predation of certain tortoise size classes17,21. It could, therefore, be hypothesized
that the risk of raven predation on young tortoises might be high in areas with high dense tortoise populations
and mediated by the overlaid eect of raven presence and vegetation cover.
Maamora forest, an anthropogenic cork oak forest located in northern Morocco, is considered to be close to
the optimum niche –the core range– of the Mediterranean spur-thighed tortoise’s distribution Testudo graeca22
and one of the areas with the highest density populations documented to date23. However, the common raven
has, over the last 40 years, increased its numbers and distribution worldwide, and this cork oak forest is no
exception24. is increase in predators may be a threat to the Mediterranean spur-thighed tortoise, and especially
to highly susceptible young individuals. Concretely densities of 0.8 breeding pairs km−2 had been observed in
the lustrum (A. Segura unpublished data). In this context, our specic objectives were to: (i) describe predation
and size classes’ preference of common ravens on young tortoises, and (ii) infer the main drivers of predation
risk and abundance. ese goals are relevant as regards improving knowledge on the predation and survival of
the Mediterranean spur-thighed tortoise at this critical stage in its life and, therefore, the conservation of this
threatened species.
Results
Raven predation on hatchlings and juveniles. Twenty-two occurrences of ravens, not including groups
(7, 3, 6 and 6, in A, B, C and D, respectively), were detected on our four study sites (Table1). ree raven nests
with active breeding pairs were found and two breeding pairs had between 1 and 2 chicks (Table1).
One hundred and sixty-six dead young tortoises (<100 mm Carapace Length; hereaer CL) (11, 8, 55 and
92, in A, B, C and D, respectively) were detected during the surveys. Most of the dead juvenile tortoises found
(88%) were located in the uncovered areas (areas C and D), where the main CL size category of dead tortoises
corresponded to between 41 and 70 mm (Fig.1). e cause of mortality in those areas was associated with preda-
tion by the common raven (100%, n = 147), where only < 75 mm CL tortoise carcasses were found with signs of
raven predation under perch and nest trees. e ravens ate the hatchling and juvenile tortoises by pulling o their
head and limbs (6%) or pecking holes through the carapace (60%) or plastron (34%). Indeed, 74 and 15 juvenile
tortoises were predated by two active breeding pairs of ravens in spring 2018 (in areas D and C, respectively).
Nevertheless, unknown causes of mortality dominated in the covered areas, and only 12–27% were related to
raven predation. e threshold size above which young tortoises are safe from raven predation in both covered
and uncovered areas was 75 mm CL. Dead young tortoises associated with raven predation diered signicantly
between covered and uncovered areas (A vs. C: X2 = 4.07, p < 0.05, n = 66; A vs. D: X2 = 4.25, p < 0.05, n = 103; B
vs. C: X2 = 5.05, p < 0.05, n = 63; B vs. D: X2 = 5.19, p < 0.05, n = 100), but did not dier between either covered
(A vs. B: X2 = 0.08, p = 0.77, n = 19) or uncovered areas (C vs. D: X2 = 0, p > 0.99, n = 147).
Live hatchlings and juveniles. One hundred and sixty-three live young tortoises (39, 30, 65, 39 in A, B, C
and D, respectively) were found during the surveys. Figure1 shows the size-class distribution on the four study
sites. e juvenile structure of live tortoises did not dier between the covered areas (A vs. B; X2 = 7.68, p = 0.26,
n = 69) but diered signicantly between the uncovered areas (C vs. D; X2 = 21.19, p < 0.05, n = 104) and also
A B C D
Vegetation
Bare ground cover 0 0 ± 0.2 17.9 ± 17.4 21.4 ± 13.8
Shrub cover 59.7 ± 21.1 52.0 ± 14.8 45.0 ± 23.0 28.2 ± 26.1
Shrub height 62.1 ± 17.7 71.1 ± 30.6 31.9 ± 27.3 19.8 ± 17.6
Shrub richness 2.0 ± 0.8 1.5 ± 0.7 0.8 ± 0.4 0.7 ± 0.7
Predation risk
Perch distance 203.6 ± 35.4 510.8 ± 120.8 72.5 ± 36.3 89.2 ± 35.3
Nest distance 999.0 ± 84.5 1076.7 ± 131.1 184.9 ± 89.2 144.7 ± 37.7
Raven occurrence
Single individuals 5 2 4 5
Breeding pairs 2 1 2 1
Groups 1(28) 1(5) 0 1(17)
Number of live tortoises 39 30 65 39
Number of dead tortoises 11 8 55 92
Raven predated tortoises 3 1 55 92
Table 1. Bare ground cover (%), shrub cover (%), shrub height (cm) and shrub species richness; raven perch
and nest distance (m) in the four study sites, A, B, C and D (mean ± SD); maximum raven occurrence in the
Mediterranean spur-thighed tortoise survey distributed by single individuals, breeding pairs and groups of
>2 individuals (number of individuals); live (<100 mm carapace length, CL), dead (<100 mm CL) and raven
predated tortoises (<75 mm CL) (in all of them, the number of individuals).
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between the covered and the uncovered areas (C vs. A: X2 = 16.06, p < 0.05, n = 104; C vs. B: X2 = 16.06, p < 0.05,
n = 95; D vs. A: X2 = 36.89, p < 0.05, n = 78; D vs. B: X2 = 36.77, p < 0.05, n = 69). e main dierences concerned
the CL size category of 81–100 mm, which represented 41% versus 16% in the covered and uncovered areas,
respectively.
Tortoise detectability and abundance: risk of predation by ravens. According to previous results
regarding dead animals found on our study sites, only those animals < 75 mm CL were susceptible to predation
in Maamora forest. Predation risk analysis was, therefore, restricted to these size classes: 140 detections (A: 27
tortoises in 11 occupied grids; B: 21 tortoises in 10 occupied grids; C: 57 tortoises in 13 occupied grids, and D: 35
tortoises in 7 occupied grids). It varied from a maximum of 3 to 5–11 tortoises per grid in covered and uncovered
areas, respectively (Table1).
In the N-mixture model, we used a negative binomial model (Table2). e stepwise procedure carried out
to select predictors explaining detectability and abundance processes is summarized in Table2. e bootstrap
p-values for the nal model based on the SSE, Freeman-Tukey, and Chi-square statistics were 0.03, 0.00 and 0.01,
respectively. e value of ĉ (ratio of observed/expected) was 1.59.
e nal model included the interaction between bare ground cover and the distance to the raven perch in
the detection process (Fig.2), and the site and the number of shrub species in the abundance process (Fig.3,
Table3). e detectability increased with the percentage of bare ground, but this eect was apparent only when
the distance to a raven perch was greater. e abundance was higher in uncovered areas and in grids with high
shrub species richness.
Discussion
Evidence of common raven predation on hatchlings and juveniles. is study reveals the predation
of common ravens on juveniles of Mediterranean spur-thighed tortoises in certain areas of Maamora forest. Both,
single individuals and breeding ravens were observed killing, carrying away and consuming juvenile tortoises,
their preference being for class sizes 40–70 mm CL. e selection by ravens of certain size classes of tortoises over
others has been found in other Testudinidae populations too18,19. Despite some tortoises being paint-marked to
identify them as recaptures, no evidence of any increased risk of predation was observed for the recognisable
fraction of the population (but see25); only in C uncovered area was one individual found dead, representing 2%
of the marked individuals.
Bearing in mind that raven predation might vary between years and among individuals, and the fact that our
study comprised only one year, our results still suggest that the predation of juvenile tortoise in the study area
was higher when compared with that of populations of Mediterranean spur-thighed tortoises in southern Spain8.
Indeed in those areas raven predation did not aect tortoise populations at all. Nevertheless, some similarities
Figure 1. Distribution of carapace length (mm; CL) in the four study areas: covered (A,B) and uncovered
(C,D). Data represent the frequencies of young tortoises: live shown in black, dead by raven predation in light
grey and dead by any other reason in dark grey.
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with other Testudinidae populations aected by raven predation were found12,16,26, although the ravens involved
in predation in our study appeared to have a slightly lower size threshold above which juveniles are safe from
predation (75 mm CL) than reported for other Testudinidae populations (85 and 100 mm CL; 27, 21 respectively).
is might be associated with the length of time shell hardening takes in Mediterranean spur-thighed tortoises,
which has been documented to limit the probability of predation by ravens (e.g.27), and this merits further studies.
Nevertheless, when comparisons of raven predation on tortoises were restricted to covered versus uncovered
areas, in the former such occurrences were all anecdotal while high mortality rates were rigorously recorded in
the latter. Certainly, we were surprised by the high amount of predation by one pair of breeding ravens, which
predated 74 tortoises of <75 mm CL in a single breeding season. Indeed, raven predation might be modifying
juvenile tortoise population structure through altering recruitment (e.g.4). Further studies are required to dis-
entangle the role played by predation in tortoise population structure within the Maamora forest.
Model specication nPars AIC ΔAICc < 2 AICwt cltvWt
(1) Latent abundance distribution
Negative binomial 3 541.51 0.00 1.00 1.00
Zero Inated 3 584.01 42.50 0.00 1.00
Poisson 2 620.03 78.52 0.00 1.00
(2) Covariates of abundance (γ) and detection (p)
γ (Shrub richness + Site) p (Bare ground cover*Perch distance) 10 527.82 0.00 0.98 0.98
γ (Site) p (Bare ground cover*Perch distance) 9 536.24 8.42 0.01 0.99
γ (.) p (Bare ground cover*Perch distance) 6 538.68 10.86 0.00 1.00
γ (.) p (.) 3 541.51 13.69 0.00 1.00
Table 2. Model selection of Mediterranean spur-thighed tortoise hatchlings and juveniles (<75 mm carapace
length; see text for details): (1) Latent abundance distribution and (2) covariates of abundance and detection.
Covariates considered: shrub richness; site, bare ground cover (%) and raven perch distance (m). Model
selection based on Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC), number of parameters (nPars), the dierence in AICc
from the best tted models (ΔAICc < 2), model weights (AICwt), and cumulative model weights (cltvWt).
D=350 D=400 D=450
D=150 D=200 D=250
D=20 D=50 D=100
0.00.2 0.40.6 0.00.2 0.40.6 0.00.2 0.
40.6
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Bare ground rate
Detection probability
Figure 2. Interaction between two continuous covariates: bare ground cover rate and distance to the nearest
raven perch (D, in meters) over the probability of detection.
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Predation risk by ravens, population size and structure of young tortoises. In this study, tortoise
detectability –associated with predation risk– was mediated by the interaction between predator presence and
bare or low cover areas; with tortoise detectability increasing with greater areas of bare ground, mainly in loca-
tions far from perch trees (e.g.18,28). is might suggest that ravens could be modulating the behavioral response
of young tortoises, e.g. they will reduce their activity in areas near perch trees in order to be less detectable by the
ravens (e.g.29). In this respect, it is reasonable to assume that the survivorship of juveniles in areas with higher
predation risk might be lower and, therefore, a lower juvenile population size will characterise populations in
such areas. Conversely, we found a higher abundance of young tortoises in uncovered areas, where they suered
higher predation, but also in areas where there was high diversity of shrub species in both covered and uncovered
areas (e.g.30). It is thus plausible to assume that many other factors involving juvenile physiological costs (e.g.29)
or even female reproduction traits –the number of clutches, clutch size and recruitment success–3, might explain
part of the variation found in the size of juvenile populations in covered and uncovered areas3. However, in higher
risk predation areas, it might also be expected that juvenile population structure would be modied and show
dierences in size/age classes12,18,19. Indeed, the higher percentage of longer/older juveniles (76–100 mm) –which
are not considered susceptible to predation– found in covered areas compared to in uncovered ones evidenced a
threat to juvenile survivorship in the lower size/age classes in those areas where hatchlings are more detectable,
e.g. uncovered areas, and whose eects, among others, might be mediated by vegetation cover (e.g.30).
Finally, hatchlings are challenging to study since they are rarely encountered in the eld31,32 and, as such, very
low capture rates and practically nonexistent recapture rates of Mediterranean spur-thighed tortoise hatchlings
have been reported in southern Spain33,34. Further studies are required to discover the role played by predation in
ABCD
020406
08
0
Sites
Abundance
0123
050 100 150 200 250 300
Number of species
Figure 3. Relationship between sampling sites (A, B, C and D; le graph) and the richness of shrub species
(number of species; right graph) with the abundance of Mediterranean spur-thighed tortoise hatchlings and
juveniles (<75 mm carapace length).
Process Var iable Estimate Standard
Error ZP (>|Z|)
Abundance
Intercept 1.025 0.49 2.094 ***
Shrub richness 0.709 0.222 3.196 **
Site B −0.419 0.619 −0.677 ns
Site C 2.697 0.564 4.78 ***
Site D 2.102 0.586 3.588 ***
Detection
Intercept −2.416 0.454 −5.32 ***
Bare ground cover 0.636 0.516 1.23 ns
Perch distance 1.9 0.588 3.23 **
Bare ground cover* Perch
distance 1.961 0.78 2.52 **
Table 3. Summary and statistical parameters of the nal N-mixture model parameterized to estimate
Mediterranean spur-thighed tortoise hatchlings and juveniles (<75 mm carapace length) as regards both
detectability and abundance (signicance codes: ns no signicative; ** < 0.01 and *** < 0.001).
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the recruitment process, which will have later impacts on the size and structure of tortoise populations. is will
also help to disentangling the possible physiological costs associated with predation risk.
Material and Methods
Study area. e study was conducted in areas of low elevation (72–185 m a.s.l.) and sandy soil in Maamora
forest (northwest Morocco; 34° 02′ 54.19″ N, 6° 27′ 19.24″ W). e climate is Mediterranean, with hot and dry
summers, and the annual range of average rainfall is from 300 to 500 mm. Maamora forest is dominated by cork
oak trees, Quercus suber, with scattered endemic wild pear, Pyrus mamorensis, wild olive Olea europaea, green
olive Phyllirea latifolia and mastic Pistacia lentiscus, and a sparse understory represented by bush and shrub
species, such as Mediterranean broom Genista linifolia, Cytisus arboreus, Stauracanthus genistoides, dwarf palm
Chamaerops humilis, French lavender Lavandula stoechas, sage-leaved rockrose Cistus salviifolius, Halimium hal-
imifolium and ymelaea lythroides35.
e study specically took place on four sites that were close together (separated by 3 km), but always ensuring
that the tortoise populations’ territories were separated by a sucient distance for them to be considered as inde-
pendent populations34,36; Fig.4. Despite the fact that all the sampling sites were located on private land on which
there has been no pet trade (>10 years protected) and that the undergrowth is well represented when compared
with other sites in unprotected Maamora, the study sites diered as regards their vegetation cover. Two of them
were characterized by high cover and the diversity of their shrub and herbs (hereaer denominated as covered
areas, A and B), while the other two were characterized by a lower cover and diversity of shrubs and a high per-
centage of bare ground (hereaer denominated as uncovered areas, C and D; see Table1 for further details). is
experimental design allowed us to test for dierences in tortoise detectability, and, therefore, infer predation risk,
in relation to vegetation cover.
Mediterranean spur-thighed tortoise and common ravens. e study sites were surveyed during
the 2018-breeding period, comprising the end of February until the end of May, covering an area of 15 ha in
each of the covered areas and of 18 ha in each of the uncovered ones. Each of the four sites was intensively sur-
veyed in order to detect young tortoises. is was done for four (uncovered areas) or ve (covered areas) days
by four trained people. e survey consisted of searching the entire territory for the occurrence of individual
tortoises, but focusing on the detection of hatchlings and juveniles (<100 mm CL). e tortoises were recorded
from 12 h until 16 h on foot and in adequate weather conditions (sunny days with temperatures of between 20
and 24 °C). Each recorded individual was georeferenced using a GPS and the CL was measured using a vernier
Figure 4. Location of the study area in Morocco and tortoise populations studied (sites A, B, C and D) is
shown. Grey circles size is proportional to the maximum abundance of live young tortoises (<75 mm CL)
observed per 1ha-grid (1, 2–3, 4–5, 6–11 ranges). Small grey squares mark grids where no tortoises were found.
Black stars represent the raven perch or nest locations.
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calliper (accuracy ± 1 mm). Size classes were used to characterize the tortoises’ population structure in covered
and uncovered areas24. e Chi-square test was used to assess any dierences between covered and uncovered
areas in terms of hatchling and juvenile size-classes structure, considering measurements of 30–40, 41–50, 51–60,
61–70, 71–80, 81–90 and 91–100 mm. e tortoises’ carapaces were lightly marked with non-toxic paint so as
to be able to identify any recaptured individuals. In addition, two additional days per area at the beginning and
the end of the raven breeding season were carried out looking for any dead animals, which were collected and
measured and, when possible, their cause of death was determined on the basis of a visual examination of the
remains of the animal and the area in which it was found. ese data were then used to determine the relevance of
predation by ravens and to characterize the size-classes of the tortoises that are predated by this species.
During the tortoise survey, the location of common raven perches and nests were registered with a GPS. For
this purpose, we also surveyed a buer area of 1.5 km around the sampling areas, which is slightly greater than the
average distance between the ravens’ territories4. e number of single individuals and breeding pairs of ravens
was also recorded, along with their breeding status and their recruitment success (chicks or edglings).
Modelling tortoise detectability and abundance. e recorded data were referred to 1-ha grids, which
were our territorial unit for analytical purposes. e number of young tortoises susceptible to predation (accord-
ing to our data < 70 mm CL, see below; but see21,37) was, therefore, quantied (our response variable) for each
grid and survey. In addition, each grid was characterized during the survey in relation to vegetation cover, and
specically to the shrub cover (%), shrub height (cm) and species richness, and the bare ground cover (%). In
order to incorporate the eect of the common raven into species detectability, the mean distance to the nearest
raven perch and nest (m; two variables) in each grid was also calculated.
We used N-mixture models to model the detectability and abundance of the hatchlings and juveniles that
were, according to the count data, susceptible to predation, while we accounted for imperfect detection38 using
the unmarked package39 in R40. Our assumption is that the detectability of young tortoises during the surveys
can be considered a proxy of young individuals’ detectability by the ravens. Hatchlings and juveniles are well
camouaged and dicult to follow in their environment. eir detectability is very low8,10,16,41, since it is linked
to the central hours of the day when animals are active. We, therefore, assume that detectability by observers is
a proxy of detectability by ravens in order to be able to explore the eect of dierent factors on predation risk.
is does not mean that the observer is able to detect the same number of young tortoises, but that the higher the
detectability for the observer, the higher detectability for the ravens.
We used Akaike’s Information Criterion corrected for small sample sizes (AICc)41 to select the most appro-
priate error distribution by comparing the performance of Poisson, zero-inated Poisson and Negative Binomial
models. e detection and abundance processes were then modelled sequentially. A forward stepwise procedure
was used to identify the most relevant predictors explaining the detection process. e same procedure was sub-
sequently followed in order to identify the predictors explaining the abundance process. AICc was also used to
compare models in the stepwise procedures by following the ΔAICc < 2 rules42. N-mixture models require an
integer value that species the upper bound used in the integration (K). In our study, this upper bound was set at
K = 120, which is suciently large for it not to have an eect on the model results. We used the parametric boot-
strap approach (1000 samples) in unmarked to attain p-values from the sums of squares, along with Chi-square
and Freeman-Tukey t statistics as a measure of the goodness of t of the nal model.
Ethic statements. Sampling of Mediterranean spur-thighed tortoises in Maamora forest was conducted
under the authorization and following the protocols approved by Le Haut-Commissariat aux Eaux et Forêts et
à la Lutte Contre la Désertication of Morocco (High Commission for Waters and Forests and the Fight against
Desertification). The field surveys were done in accordance with the guidelines and regulations. There was
non-invasive sampling.
Data availability
e datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding
author on reasonable request.
Received: 22 October 2019; Accepted: 22 January 2020;
Published: xx xx xxxx
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Acknowledgements
We are very grateful to Oscar Rodríguez, Hassan Belhajjamia, Absallam Belhajjamia and Bouhali Kaddouri for
their eld assistance. We truly appreciate their commitment to the surveys and their ability to detect hatchlings.
We would like to thank HCEFLCD services for their guidance. We would also like to thank Greg Trollip and
Jacob Mwanzia for their support and interest in wild species conservation. PA is supported by MINECO-UCLM
through a “Ramón y Cajal” contract (RYC-2012–11970).
Author contributions
A.S. and P.A. conceived the initial ideas, A.S. did the eld surveys, A.S., J.J. and P.A. analysed the data and led the
writing. All the authors discussed the ndings.
Competing interests
e authors declare no competing interests.
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