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GTK Oil from a Critical Raw Material Perspective FINAL CC signatures
Abstract
This work has been done to understand what the future Critical Raw Material (CRM) list for Europe may involve. This examines what purpose oil serves to support the existing industrial ecosystem.
... Today, oil is a critical supply chain component for 90% of all industrially manufactured products (Michaux, 2020); as such, it is the backbone of industrial civilization. Its large range of strategic advantages (liquid state, high energy density, numerous applications, etc.) have driven its everescalating search and use during the past century. ...
... Books were published 5 , bets were placed, documentaries were screened and articles flourished in scientific journals and on specialized websites such as the now defunct "TheOilDrum" forum to altogether form a vibrant community (Campbell, 2003;Bridge, 2010;Campbell, 2012). Governments themselves seized the matter in a direct-the Belgian Walloon parliament created a "peak oil committee"-or indirect form-reports were commissioned by the British Department of Energy in concert with the Bank of England and the Department of Defense (Michaux, 2020), as well as the U.S. Department of Energy (Hirsch, 2007). Military affiliated institutions, for instance in the U.S. (Parthemore and Nagl, 2010) or Germany (BTC, 2010), and private industries (e.g. the U.K. Industry Task-Force on Peak Oil and Energy Security) also took on the issue. ...
Since the Pennsylvania oil rush of 1859, petroleum has quickly become the dominant fuel of industrial society. The “Peak Oil” debate focused on whether or not there was an impending production crunch of cheap oil, and whilst there have been no shortages across the globe, a shift from conventional to unconventional oil liquids has occurred. One aspect of this shift was not fully explored in previous discussions–although of some importance in a low-carbon energy transition context: the extent to which the net-energy supply of oil products is affected by the use of lower quality energy sources. To fill this gap, this paper incorporates standard EROI (energy-return-on-investment) estimates and dynamic decline functions in the GlobalShift all-liquids bottom-up model on a global scale. We determine the energy necessary for the production of oil liquids (including direct and indirect energy costs) to represent today 15.5% of the energy production of oil liquids, and growing at an exponential rate: by 2050, a proportion equivalent to half of the gross energy output will be engulfed in its own production. Our findings thus question the feasibility of a global and fast low-carbon energy transition. We therefore suggest an urgent return of the peak oil debate, but including net-energy issues and avoiding a narrow focus on ‘peak supply’ vs ‘peak demand’.
... Note that in 2019, oil (conventional and unconventional) still represented 33% of the total primary energy consumed at the global level, which makes it pivotal to energy security [9]. It is also a critical supply chain component for 90% of all industrially manufactured products [10]. ...
A novel methodology is presented for assessing the performance of the oil sector across multiple scales and dimensions of analysis. It focuses on the potential impact of the growing share of unconventional oils in the crude supply mix on energy security through an analysis of the societal energy metabolism. Applying our method at the global level, we find that at the current fuel consumption pattern, an increased exploitation of unconventional oils will cause relative shortages of specific refinery products. The imbalances would be more pronounced if the global fuel consumption pattern would change toward that of the US or the EU. In the former case, gasoline supply would become critical, in the latter diesel. Contrasting performances were found on the selected environmental, technical, or economic criteria for the different simulations analyzed. We conclude that it is of paramount importance to study the oil sector as an integral part of society. In the metabolic view, there are no ‘good’ or ‘bad’ primary energy sources (taken in isolation), but a series of trade-offs among various dimensions of performance. Whether or not unconventional oils can provide energy security depends on the overall feasibility, viability, and desirability of the energy metabolic pattern of society.
... Based on the characteristics of the final polymers, plastics are grouped into two primary families: thermoplastics and thermosets, and the details are shown in Table 1 [43,44]. Bioplastics The current global plastic industry is one of the major users of the world's petroleum refinery output, accounting for approximately10% of the total output of nearly 650 million tons annually [2]. The demand for plastics is also growing rapidly worldwide, and in 2019, plastic demand outpaced all other bulk materials, such as cement, aluminum, and steel [49]. ...
The upward trend of global demand for fossil-fuel energy for non-energy purposes especially for the production of plastics, and non-renewable energy use (NREU) and global warming potential of the plastics life cycle is poorly understood. Alternatives to petrochemical plastics have been researched intensely, but they have not been developed to replace current plastic products at a commercially viable scale. Here, we identify challenges facing to energy intensiveness of plastic production, land use crisis for biomass production, and non-renewable energy use and global warming potential on the life cycle of plastics, and we propose a material lifecycle perspective for bioplastics. Our estimate shows that an average of about 13.8 exajoule (EJ), ranging from 10.9 to 16.7 EJ, of fossil-fuel energy consumed in 2019 was diverted to fossil-fuel feedstock for the production of plastics worldwide, this translates between 2.8 and 4.1% share of the total consumed fossil-fuel energy globally. The life cycle analysis estimate shows that bioplastics produced from 2nd generation feedstock have 25% less NREU than that of 1st generation, while the bioplastics from 1st generation feedstock required about 86% less NREU than that of petrochemical plastics. Similarly, the estimates of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions show that the reduction of GHG emission was about 187% more in biomass feedstock than that of petrochemical plastics. We conclude by presenting strategies for improving the recyclability of biological plastics through polymer design, application biotechnology, and by adopting a circular bio-based economy.
Implementing lignocellulosic biorefineries to obtain energy and chemical products is a great challenge given the complexity of the raw material and the immaturity of the technology, compared to oil refineries. On the other hand, the development of computer tools has allowed the improvement of industrial processes through automation and optimization of different procedures. This chapter addresses how technological advances, and the implementation and use of computational resources will drive biorefineries in the so-called new industrial revolution or Industry 4.0. Specifically, the optimization of processes using the design of experiments allows for reducing the number of experiments in the search for the best operating conditions in each of the production stages. Thus, time and resources are saved, which is economically favorable. In addition, modeling, and simulation lead to the understanding of complex processes and predict kinetic and thermodynamic models. In the same way, the life cycle analysis allows decisions to be made after evaluating the different criteria, according to the fundamental pillars: environmental, social, and economic. Through simulation, theoretical concepts can be linked to real situations, saving resources and time, and the footprint of the product can be established from the beginning to the end of its life cycle. However, all these tools have been used primarily on a laboratory scale. Conducting these studies on a larger scale is crucial to guarantee the competitiveness of biorefineries from technological, economic, and social points of view. In addition, logistics must be perfected throughout the supply and production chain, which can be favored with the digitization and automation of processes. At the same time, these tools can contribute to implementing the circular economy, and the development of sustainable processes. Besides, the integration of processes is presented as an interesting option that can even reduce the dependence on resources of fossil origin. Finally, academia and industry must be strongly united in the search for viable solutions that can be applied to improve processes and not remain only in publications.
The increasing need for indium in photovoltaic technologies is set to exceed available supply. Current estimates suggest only 25% of global solar cell demand for indium can be met, posing a significant challenge for the energy transition. Using the WORLD7 model, this study evaluated the sustainability of indium production and overall market supply. The model considers both mass balance and the dynamic interplay of supply–demand in determining indium prices. It is estimated that a total of 312,000 tons of indium can be extracted. However, the primary hindrance to supply is the availability of extraction opportunities and the necessary infrastructure. Unless we improve production capacity, indium may face shortages, hindering the advancement of pivotal technologies. A concern observed is the insufficient rate of indium recycling. Boosting this could greatly alleviate supply pressures. Projections indicate that indium production will reach its peak between 2025 and 2030, while the peak for photovoltaic solar panels due to indium shortages is anticipated around 2090, with an installed capacity of 1200 GW. Thus, the growth of photovoltaic capacity may lag behind actual demand. For a sustainable future, understanding the role of essential metals like indium is crucial. The European Environment Agency (EEA) introduced four “imaginaries” depicting visions of a sustainable Europe by 2050 (SE2050), each representing a unique future set within specific parameters. Currently, Europe is heavily dependent on imports for tech metals and has limited recycling capabilities, putting it at a disadvantage in a global context. To achieve sustainability, there is a need for improved infrastructure for extraction, recycling, and conservation of metals such as indium. These resources are crucial for realizing Europe’s 2050 sustainability objectives. Furthermore, understanding the role of these metals in wider overarching strategies is vital for envisioning a sustainable European Union by 2050, as depicted in the Imaginaries.
The upward trend of global demand for fossil-fuel energy for non-energy purposes especially for the production of plastics, and non-renewable energy use (NREU) and global warming potential of the plastics life cycle is poorly understood. Alternatives to petrochemical plastics have been researched intensely, but they have not been developed to replace current plastic products at a commercially viable scale. Here, we identify challenges facing to energy intensiveness of plastic production, land use crisis for biomass production, and non-renewable energy use and global warming potential on the life cycle of plastics, and we propose a material lifecycle perspective for bioplastics. Our estimate shows that an average of about 13.8 exajoule (EJ), ranging from 10.9 to 16.7 EJ, of fossil-fuel energy consumed in 2019 was diverted to fossil-fuel feedstock for the production of plastics worldwide, this translates between 2.8 and 4.1% share of the total consumed fossil-fuel energy globally. The life cycle analysis estimate shows that bioplastics produced from 2nd generation feedstock have 25% less NREU than that of 1st generation, while the bioplastics from 1st generation feedstock required about 86% less NREU than that of petrochemical plastics. Similarly, the estimates of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions show that the reduction of GHG emission was about 187% more in biomass feedstock than that of petrochemical plastics. We conclude by presenting strategies for improving the recyclability of biological plastics through polymer design, application biotechnology, and by adopting a circular bio-based economy.
Machine learning is a subcategory of artificial intelligence, which aims to make computers capable of solving complex problems without being explicitly programmed. Availability of large datasets, development of effective algorithms, and access to the powerful computers have resulted in the unprecedented success of machine learning in recent years. This powerful tool has been employed in a plethora of science and engineering domains including mining and minerals industry. Considering the ever-increasing global demand for raw materials, complexities of the geological structure of ore deposits, and decreasing ore grade, high-quality and extensive mineralogical information is required. Comprehensive analyses of such invaluable information call for advanced and powerful techniques including machine learning. This paper presents a systematic review of the efforts that have been dedicated to the development of machine learning-based solutions for better utilizing mineralogical data in mining and mineral studies. To that end, we investigate the main reasons behind the superiority of machine learning in the relevant literature, machine learning algorithms that have been deployed, input data, concerned outputs, as well as the general trends in the subject area.
This paper reviews and analyses a decarbonization policy called the Tradable Energy Quotas (TEQs) system developed by David Fleming. The TEQs system involves rationing fossil fuel energy use for a nation on the basis of either a contracting carbon emission budget or scarce fuel availability, or both simultaneously, distributing budgets equitably amongst energy-users. Entitlements can be traded to incentivize demand reduction and to maximize efficient use of the limited entitlements. We situate this analysis in the context of Joseph Tainter’s theory about the development and collapse of complex societies. Tainter argues that societies become more socio-politically and technologically ‘complex’ as they solve the problems they face and that such complexification drives increased energy use. For a society to sustain itself, therefore, it must secure the energy needed to solve the range of societal problems that emerge. However, what if, as a result of deep decarbonization, there is less energy available in the future not more? We argue that TEQs offers a practical means of managing energy descent futures. The policy can facilitate controlled reduction of socio-political complexity via processes of ‘voluntary simplification’ (the result being ‘degrowth’ or controlled contraction at the scale of the physical economy).
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