Conference Paper

Forecasting of low-latitude ionospheric scintillation using a physics-based model

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Abstract

Determining the rate of change of the virtual height associated with a specific ionosonde frequency provides a proxy for vertical plasma drift (PVPD). Anderson et al. (2004) demonstrated that PVPDs at a location on the magnetic equator between 1830 and 2000 local time (LT) can be used as an indicator for the occurrence of low-latitude ionospheric scintillation during the following night. However, the method is unable to provide significant forecast antecedence as the 1830 - 2000 LT forecast window must have begun (and ended if large PVPDs are not observed) before a forecast can be issued for that location. A further limitation is the requirement of a local ionosonde. This work proposes the adaptation of the PVPD forecasting technique to use output from a physics-based ionosphere model. Applying this technique at regularly spaced longitudes provides a computationally cheap method for global low-latitude scintillation forecasting with increased forecast antecedence and without the need for local ionosondes.

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... The number of S4 .0.2 during the months of February, March, October, and November together was 41,331 at BOA (60.6% of the total of the year), 4466 at HUA (85.6% of the year), and 17,355 at CUI (67.9% of the year). The dependence on solar activity and on seasonality agrees with previous work, such as [9] from Oceania and [10] from the Asian sector. In the South American sector, [11] found similar results using an hourly analysis from a previous solar cycle. ...
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