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Spatio-temporal variability of desert dust storms in Eastern Mediterranean (Crete, Cyprus, Israel) between 2006 and 2017 using a uniform methodology

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The characteristics of desert dust storms (DDS) have been shown to change in response to climate change and land use. There is limited information on the frequency and intensity of DDS over the last decade at a regional scale in the Eastern Mediterranean. An algorithm based on daily ground measurements (PM10, particulate matter ≤10 μm), satellite products (dust aerosol optical depth) and meteorological parameters, was used to identify dust intrusions for three Eastern Mediterranean locations (Crete-Greece, Cyprus, and Israel) between 2006 and 2017. Days with 24-hr average PM10 concentration above ~30 μg/m³ were found to be a significant indicator of DDS for the background sites of Cyprus and Crete. Higher thresholds were found for Israel depending on the season (fall and spring: PM10 > 70 μg/m³, winter and summer: PM10 > 90 μg/m³). We observed a high variability in the frequency and intensity of DDS during the last decade, characterized by a steady trend with sporadic peaks. The years with the highest DDS frequency were not necessarily the years with the most intense episodes. Specifically, the highest dust frequency was observed in 2010 at all three locations, but the highest annual median dust-PM10 level was observed in 2012 in Crete (55.8 μg/m³) and Israel (137.4 μg/m³), and in 2010 in Cyprus (45.3 μg/m³). Crete and Cyprus experienced the same most intense event in 2006, with 24 h-PM10 average of 705.7 μg/m³ and 1254.6 μg/m³, respectively, which originated from Sahara desert. The highest 24 h-PM10 average concentration for Israel was observed in 2010 (3210.9 μg/m³) during a three-day Saharan dust episode. However, a sub-analysis for Cyprus (years 2000–2017) suggests a change in DDS seasonality pattern, intensity, and desert of origin. For more robust conclusions on DDS trends in relation to climate change, future work needs to study data over several decades from different locations.
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1. Introduction
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H=CBG 5F9 9LD97H98 HC 697CA9 ACF9 G9J9F9 !CI8=9 %F5GBCJ 9H
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=B H<9 GCIH<95GH9FB '98=H9FF5B95B <5G =B7F95G98 CJ9F H<9 @5GH 897589G
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HF9B8 =B 85=@M 5B8 <CIF@M *' @9J9@G 8IF=B; - 9J9BHG =B H<9 (9;9J
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BC IB=:CFA A9H<C8C@C;M :CF 5B5@MG=G C: - :F9EI9B7M 5B8 =BH9BG=HM C:
@CB;H9FA ;FCIB8 A95GIF9A9BHG C6H5=B98 :FCA 8=::9F9BH G=H9G =B H<9 F9
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2. Material and methods
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GH5H=CB S( S  A 5G@ == =B MDFIG M=5 '5F=B5
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F=B5 ' GH5H=CB =G D5FH C: H<9 5=F EI5@=HM ACB=HCF=B; B9HKCF? CD9F5H98
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A5@ H<F9G<C@8   G9BG=H=J=HM   GD97=V7=HM   5J
9F5;9/  == %&CDH=A5@ H<F9G<C@8  G9BG=H=J
=HM   GD97=V7=HM   5J9F5;9/   5B8 === -CDH=
A5@ H<F9G<C@8   G9BG=H=J=HM   GD97=V7=HM   5J
9F5;9/   .<9 7CA6=B5H=CB C: ,.F9;F9GG=CB A9H<C8 =89B
H=V98  -  - 5B8  - :CF ' %& 5B8 - F9GD97
H=J9@M K<9B 5DD@=98 :CF H<9 F9:9F9B79 M95FG CF ' 5B8
UNCORRECTED PROOF
%*+,,'/3'4#, %+'.%'/(4*' /4#,.6+2/.-'.4 888 8888 
%&  C: - 5B8  C: (- K9F9 7CFF97H@M 7@5GG=V98 5B8 :CF -
 C: - 5B8  C: (- K9F9 7CFF97H@M 7@5GG=V98
8 CF H<9 VB5@ GH9D C: - 7@5GG=V75H=CB K9 5DD@=98 H<9 7CA6=B98
,.F9;F9GG=CB G7<9A9 HC 5@@ H<9 85MG C: H<9 M95F GHI8M D9F=C8
5B8 7@5GG=V98 85MG 5G - 5B8 (- CF 85MG K=H< A=GG=B; 85H5
A5=B@M *' K9 =BGD97H98 H<9 85MG =B 5 G=A=@5F K5M K=H< H<9 F9:9F
9B79 M95FG 5B8 =89BH=V98 - 65G98 CB IGH ) G5H9@@=H9 =A5;9G
5B8 A9H9CFC@C;=75@ J5F=56@9G *'HC*' F5H=C *' 9@9A9BH5@
7CB79BHF5H=CBG =: K9F9 5J5=@56@9
9 #B 588=H=CB - K9F9 7@5GG=V98 65G98 CB H<9=F GCIF79 C: CF=;=B -5
<5F5B '=88@9 5GH9FB' A=LHIF9 C: -5<5F5B 5B8 ' 89G9FHG 5:H9F
9L5A=B=B; 85M 657?K5F8 5=F HF5>97HCF=9G HF5798 5H   5B8
 A <9=;<H !& IG=B; H<9 "M6F=8 -=B;@9*5FH=7@9 &5;F5B;=5B #B
H9;F5H98 .F5>97HCFM "3-*&#. AC89@ -H9=B 9H 5@ ,C@D< 9H
5@ 
 2'.&3 #.#,93+3
19 5DD@=98 H<9 .<9=@-9B 9GH=A5HCF 5B8 '5BB%9B85@@ H9GH C: G=;B=:
=75B79 5 BCBD5F5A9HF=7 A9H<C8 HC H9GH 5B8 AC89@ HF9B8G HC 5GG9GG H<9
@=B95F HF9B8 C: - 19 5@GC 9L5A=B98 H<9 BCB@=B95F HF9B8 C: *' 7CB
79BHF5H=CBG 5B8 IGH) 8IF=B; 8IGH 85MG IG=B; 5 !9B9F5@=N98 88=H=J9
'C89@ !' K=H< 5 D9B5@=N98 F9;F9GG=CB GD@=B9 :IB7H=CB CB H=A9 -
85H9

K<9F9 μ==G H<9 A95B 85=@M *' 7CB79BHF5H=CB CF IGH) :CF - 85M
= β=G H<9 F9;F9GG=CB =BH9F79DH 5B8 : F9DF9G9BHG 5 D9B5@=N98 F9;F9GG=CB
GD@=B9 :IB7H=CB K<9F9 H<9 89;F99G C: :F998CA K9F9 89H9FA=B98 6M 7<CCG
=B; H<9 GACCH<=B; D5F5A9H9F 6M !9B9F5@=N98 FCGG 05@=85H=CB 7F=H9F=CB
!0
CF H<9 HF9B8 5B5@MG9G K9 IG98 H<9 HF9B8%9B85@@GD@=B9G 5B8
A;7JD57?5;9G =B , GH5H=GH=75@ GC:HK5F9 , CF9 .95A 
3. Results and discussion
  %*#2#%4'2+34+%3
.<9 85=@M *' 7CB79BHF5H=CB 5B8 IGH) H=A9 G9F=9G CJ9F H<9
GHI8M D9F=C8  5F9 DF9G9BH98 =B =;  5B8 H<9 <CIF@M *'
@9J9@G 5F9 =@@IGHF5H98 =B =; - .<9 85=@M 5J9F5;9 *' J5@I9G F5B;98
:FCA  HC  μ;A=B ' :FCA  HC  μ;A=B %&
5B8 :FCA  HC  μ;A=B - IGH) K5G K=H<=B H<9 F5B;9 C:
 5B8  5H 5@@ G=H9G
.<9 ,. 5B5@MG=G =89BH=V98 HKC 7@5GG=V75H=CB FI@9G :CF ' 5B8
H<F99 :CF %& 5B8 - .<9 FI@9G 5F9 89G7F=698 =B .56@9  IGH)
5B8 *' K9F9 H<9 ACGH G=;B=:=75BH J5F=56@9G =B 7@5GG=:M=B; - :CF 5@@
H<F99 G=H9G =::9F9BH - 7F=H9F=5 J=G=6=@=HM ) 59FCGC@ G75HH9F=B;
5B;GHFCA 9LDCB9BH 8IGH 59FCGC@ A5DG K=B8 8=F97H=CB GMBCDH=7 D5H
H9FBG 9H7 <5J9 699B DF9J=CIG@M IG98 =B G9J9F5@ GHI8=9G '=7<59@=89G
9H 5@ !5BCF 9H 5@ 5@C 9H 5@ <I8BCJG?M 9H
5@ =5DCI@= 9H 5@  @CF9G 9H 5@ '=7<59@=89G
9H 5@  "CK9J9F H<9 IG9 C: 7F=H9F=5 65G98 CB ;FCIB8 5B8 7C@IA
B5F 59FCGC@ @C58 5B8 H<9=F 7CA6=B5H=CB <5G 699B G<CKB HC 69 5 F9@=
56@9 HCC@ :CF - 7@5GG=V75H=CB G=B79 =H 5@@CKG H<9 =89BH=V75H=CB C: @CK
A98=IA 5B8 <=;< =BH9BG=HM 9J9BHG %5@=J=H=G 9H 5@ 57<CFFC
9H 5@  )H<9F 9LD@5B5HCFM J5F=56@9G K9F9 H9AD9F5HIF9 :CF %&
5B8 K=B8 GD998 5B8 G95GCB5@=HM :CF - .<9G9 FI@9G 5@CB; K=H< H<9 F9
;F9GG=CB 7C9:V7=9BHG .56@9 - K9F9 IG98 HC =89BH=:M - :CF 5@@ M95FG
C: H<9 GHI8M D9F=C8
19 =89BH=V98  '   %& 5B8  - - =B H<9 5GH
9FB '98=H9FF5B95B F9;=CB 8IF=B; H<9 HK9@J9M95F GHI8M D9F=C8 .<9 A5
>CF=HM  C: H<9 =89BH=V98 - :FCA ' GH5H=CB K9F9 89G7F=698
6M 85=@M *' 5J9F5;9 ;F95H9F CF 9EI5@ HC  μ;A',.FI@9
 5B8 5@ACGH <5@:  C: H<9 %& - K9F9 89G7F=698 6M 85=@M
IGH) 5J9F5;9 ;F95H9F CF 9EI5@ HC  5B8 *' 5J9F5;9 9EI5@
56CJ9  μ;A %&,.FI@9  -=A=@5F@M =B - O C: H<9
- K9F9 =89BH=V98 8IF=B; :5@@ 5B8 GDF=B; ACBH<G K=H< *' 5J9F5;9
;F95H9F CF 9EI5@ HC  μ;A-,.FI@9  5B8  8IF=B; K=B
H9F 5B8 GIAA9F ACBH<G K=H< *' 5J9F5;9 ;F95H9F CF 9EI5@ HC  μ;
A-,.FI@9  .<9G9 D9F79BH5;9G 5@GC 89D=7H H<9 BIA69F C: -
H<5H K9F9 C6G9FJ98 5H ;FCIB8 @9J9@ 5B8 5::97H <IA5B <95@H< .<9 F9GH
  5B8  :CF ' %& 5B8 - F9GD97H=J9@M F9DF9G9BH -
K<=7< C77IFF98 5H <=;<9F 5HACGD<9F=7 @9J9@G
.56@9  DF9G9BHG GIAA5FM GH5H=GH=7G :CF *' @9J9@G IGH) 5B8
A9H9CFC@C;M 5H H<9 H<F99 G=H9G *' 7CB79BHF5H=CB 5B8 IGH) K9F9
AI7< <=;<9F =B - H<5B =B ' 5B8 %& - GH5H=CB =G G9H K=H<=B H<9 7=HM
5G CDDCG98 HC H<9 CH<9F HKC GH5H=CBG K<=7< 5F9 @C75H98 =B FIF5@ 5F95G
(9J9FH<9@9GG 99F -<9J5 =G 5 7=HM BCH =AD57H98 6M <95JM HF5:V7 CF =B8IG
HFM #H =G GIFFCIB898 6M @5F;9 5F=8 5F95G 5B8 5G F9GI@H H<9 7CBHF=6IH=CB
C: 5BH<FCDC;9B=7 GCIF79G HC *' 9J9B =B BCB8IGH 85MG =G CB@M O
%F5GBCJ 9H 5@ 6
Fig. 2. J9F5;9 85=@M 7CB79BHF5H=CB C: *' μ;A 5B8 IGH) CJ9F H<9 M95F GHI8M D9F=C8 =B ' %& 5B8 -
UNCORRECTED PROOF
%*+,,'/3'4#, %+'.%'/(4*' /4#,.6+2/.-'.4 888 8888 
Table 1
,. 7@5GG=V75H=CB FI@9G:CF -
,I@9L ,I@9L ,I@9L
' *'    *'  
IGH) 
%& IGH) 
*' 
IGH) 
 *'  
.9AD9F5HIF9 
IGH)  
*' 
- *' 
-95GCB 5:5@@GDF=B;
*' 
-95GCB 5GIAA9FK=BH9F
*'  
IGH) 
1=B8GD998  
5:5@@ -9DH9A69F(CJ9A69F K=BH9F 979A69F 96FI5FM GDF=B; '5F7<'5M GIA
A9F $IB9I;IGH
.<9 H<F99 5GH '98=H9FF5B95B G=H9G 9LD9F=9B798  7CAACB -
'*' U  μ;A %&*' U  μ;A
-*' U  μ;A K<=7< 7CFF9GDCB8G HC  C: - :CF
'  :CF %& 5B8  :CF - 'CGH C: H<9G9 - CF=;=B5H98
:FCA -5<5F5B 89G9FH B' B %& B- K=H< - 699B =A
D57H98 ACGH =BH9BG9@M '*' U  μ;A
%&*' U  μ;A -*' U  μ;A .<9 F9GH
C: H<9 7CAACB 8IGH 85MG K9F9 =BWI9B798 :FCA 9=H<9F ' 89G9FH
B' B %& B- CF :FCA 6CH< -5<5F5B 5B8 ' 89G9FHG
B' B %& B- #B 588=H=CB ' 5B8 - 9LD9F=9B798 5BCH<9F
 7CAACB 8IGH 85MG  C: - :CF ' K=H< *' U  μ;
A  C: - :CF - K=H< *' U  μ;A %& 5B8 -
  C: - :CF %& K=H< *'  U  μ;A  C: -
:CF - K=H< *'  U  μ;A 5B8 ' 5B8 %&  7CAACB
8IGH 85MG  C: - :CF ' K=H< *' U  μ;A  C:
- :CF %& K=H< *' U  μ;A
 '4'/2/,/)+%#, %/.&+4+/.3
%& <58 H<9 <=;<9GH 85=@M 5J9F5;9 C: F9@5H=J9 <IA=8=HM 5B8 K=B8
GD998 6IH @CK9GH H9AD9F5HIF9 .56@9  - 5@H<CI;< =G GIFFCIB898 6M
@5F;9 89G9FHG 9LD9F=9B798 ACF9 DF97=D=H5H=CB H<5B ' IF=B; - H<9
A95B *' @9J9@ K5G ID HC H<F99 ' %& CF VJ9 - H=A9G <=;<9F
H<5B H<9 BCB8IGH 85MG 5J9F5;9  :CIF HC VJ9:C@8 =B7F95G9 K5G C6G9FJ98
:CF IGH) 8IF=B; - 5G K9@@ - K9F9 5GGC7=5H98 K=H< <=;<9F H9A
D9F5HIF9G 5B8 8F=9F 7CB8=H=CBG 5H 5@@ H<F99 G=H9G - K9F9 K=B8=9F =B -
6IH H<9 CDDCG=H9 K5G C6G9FJ98 =B %&
.<9 CF=;=B C: H<9 A5>CF *' GCIF79G :CF H<9 K<C@9 GHI8M D9F=C8
K5G GHI8=98 IG=B; H<9 6=J5F=5H9 DC@5F D@CHG :CF 957< G=H9  =;  =
J5F=5H9 DC@5F D@CHG GH5H=GH=75@@M F9DF9G9BH H<9 *' 7CB79BHF5H=CBG =B DC
@5F 7CCF8=B5H9G H5?=B; =BHC 577CIBH H<9 K=B8 GD998 5B8 8=F97H=CB .KC
8=::9F9BH J9FG=CBG C: H<9 D@CHG 5F9 G<CKB =; 58 G<CK <CK H<9
*' 7CB79BHF5H=CBG J5FM D9F G95GCB 89D9B8=B; CB @C75@ K=B8 GD998
5B8 8=F97H=CB 5B8 H<9F9:CF9 H<9 8=F97H=CB C: <=;< *' 7CB79BHF5H=CBG
F98 7C@CF7C898 F9DF9G9BH H<9 89G9FH 8IGH GCIF79 CF =; 9 H<9
7CB79BHF5H=CBG =B H<9 K=B8 GD9988=F97H=CB 6=BG79@@G K9F9 AI@H=D@=98
6M :F9EI9B7M C: C77IFF9B79 5B8 F9DF9G9BH H<9 8CA=B5BH GCIF79G C:
*' CJ9F H<9 K<C@9 GHI8M D9F=C8 5B8 @9GG H<9 - 7CBHF=6IH=CB .<9
K9=;<H98 7CB79BHF5H=CBG 6=J5F=5H9 DC@5F D@CHG  =; 9 G<CK 5 69HH9F
F9DF9G9BH5H=CB C: H<9 5=F A5GG GCIF79G H<5H 8CA=B5H9 H<9 A95B 7CB79B
HF5H=CBG F97CF898 =B 5 DF9J=CIG GHI8M 'CINCIF=89G 9H 5@ 
=; 58 ' G<CK H<5H *' @9J9@G =B MDFIG K9F9 GHFCB;@M =BWI
9B798 6M K=B8G CF=;=B5H=B; :FCA -- F9;=CBG IB89F A98=IA @9J9@ K=B8
GD998 7CB8=H=CBG K=H< GCA9 G95GCB5@ J5F=5H=CBG -D97=:=75@@M -CIH<
(CFH< :F=75 K=B8G <58 5 GHFCB;9F 9::97H =B H<9 K=BH9F 5B8 GDF=B; -
F56=5B *9B=BGI@5 5B8 -1 (CFH< :F=75 K=B8G <58 5 GHFCB;9F 9::97H
=B H<9 GIAA9F 5B8 -1-- (CFH< :F=75F56=5B *9B=BGI@5 K=B8G =B
H<9 :5@@ "CK9J9F =B H<9 56G9B79 C: G9J9F9 - 9J9BHG  =; 9' H<9
*' 7CB79BHF5H=CBG K9F9 ACGH@M 5::97H98 6M H<9 1-1 IB89F J9FM @CK
K=B8 GD998 7CB8=H=CBG 6IH 5=F A5GG9G :FCA ( HC (1 K9F9 BCH :CIB8 HC
69 7CAACB :CF H<9 =G@5B8 K<=7< =G =B 5;F99A9BH K=H< H<9 K=B8 7@=A5
HC@C;M C: H<9 =G@5B8 $57CJ=89G 9H 5@ 
%& K5G <=;<@M 5::97H98 6M K9GH9F@M K=B8G IB89F A98=IA K=B8
GD998 7CB8=H=CBG  =; 9 %& .5?=B; =BHC 577CIBH H<9 G95GCB5@ 9::97H
*' GCIF79G K9F9 :FCA GCIH< =B H<9 :5@@ 5B8 GDF=B; 95GH 5B8 -- =B
H<9 K=BH9F 5B8 :FCA K9GH ID HC H<9 95GH =B H<9 GIAA9F %& =G <=;<@M
5::97H98 6M (CFH< :F=75 8IGH 9GD97=5@@M =B H<9 GIAA9F
#B - H<9 CF=;=B C: *' 8CA=B5BH GCIF79G J5F=98 G=;B=:=75BH@M 6M
G95GCB  =; 58 "=;< *' @9J9@G =B K=BH9F K9F9 5::97H98 6M -1 DF9
J5=@=B; K=B8G BCFH< K=B8G =B H<9 GDF=B; A5=B@M K9GH 5B8 =B GCA9 75G9G
GCIH< 5B8 95GH K=B8G =B H<9 GIAA9F K<=@9 =B :5@@ H<9 95GH9F@M K=B8G
7@95F@M HF5BGDCFH98 <=;< *' 7CB79BHF5H=CBG IF=B; GDF=B; H<9 DF9
J5=@=B; K=B8G =B H<9 F9;=CB 5F9 9=H<9F K9GH CF 95GH "CK9J9F H<9 K=B8G
H<5H 5F9 HF5BGDCFH=B; 89G9FH 8IGH 8IF=B; H<=G G95GCB F957< H<9 7=HM C:
99F -<9J5 A5=B@M :FCA H<9 BCFH< K=H<  C: H<9 8IGH CF=;=B5H=B; :FCA
H<9 -5<5F5 9G9FH #B 7CB8=H=CBG @9GG 5::97H98 6M - 9J9BHG =B -  =;
9- K9 C6G9FJ98 HKC DF9J5=@=B; 7CB8=H=CBG C: *' @9J9@G BCFH<K9GH
K=B8G C: A98=IA K=B8 =BH9BG=HM 5B8 G97CB85F=@M H<9 9::97H C: 95GH9FB
K=B8G K=H< 5@GC A98=IA K=B8 =BH9BG=HM
 ..5#, 6#2+#$+,+49 /( &'3'24 &534 34/2-3 %*#2#%4'2+34+%3
  (2'15'.%9
.56@9  G<CKG H<9 5BBI5@ =B7=89B79 C: - D9F G=H9 J9B H<CI;<
' <58 H<9 <=;<9GH BIA69F C: =89BH=V98 - CB@M  C: H<9A K9F9
9L7998=B; H<9 / *' 85=@M @=A=H C:  μ;A DFC656@M 8I9 HC H<9 :F9
EI9B7M C: @CK =BH9BG=HM 9J9BHG CF 8I9 HC H<9 :57H H<5H 8IGH 59FCGC@ K5G
HF5J9@@=B; =B H<9 IDD9F 5HACGD<9F=7 @9J9@G 56CJ9 MDFIG :CF G9J9F5@ C:
H<9 - #B %& 5B8 -  5B8  C: H<9 HCH5@ - =89BH=V98 K9F9
9L7998=B; H<9 / *' 85=@M @=A=H F9GD97H=J9@M
19 C6G9FJ98 5 <=;< J5F=56=@=HM =B H<9 :F9EI9B7M C: - 8IF=B; H<9
@5GH 897589 "CK9J9F H<9 M95F  K5G H<9 M95F K=H< H<9 <=;<9GH
BIA69F C: - C77IFF9B79 5H 5@@ H<F99 G=H9G #B ' H<9 :F9EI9B7M
Table 2
-IAA5FM GH5H=GH=7G A95B U G8 C: *' IGH) 5B8 A9H9CFC@C;=75@ J5F=56@9G :CF H<9 GHI8M D9F=C8  =B ' %& 5B8 - GH5H=CBG @@ 5@@ 85MG (- (CB9G9FH IGH -HCFA
85MG - 9G9FH IGH -HCFA 85MG
05F=56@9 ' %& -
@@
B  
(-
B  
-
B  
@@
B  
(-
B  
-
B  
@@
B  
(-
B   -B  
*' μ;
A
 U   U  = U  = U   U  = U  = U   U  = U  =
IGH)  U   U  = U  = U   U  = U  = U   U  = U  =
.9ADS  U   U  = U  = U   U  = U  = U   U   U 
,"  U   U  = U  = U   U  = U  = U   U  = U  =
1-AG  U   U  = U  = U   U  = U  = U   U  = U  =
=D05@I9 C: 4H9GH 
UNCORRECTED PROOF
%*+,,'/3'4#, %+'.%'/(4*' /4#,.6+2/.-'.4 888 8888 
Fig. 3. =J5F=5H9 DC@5F D@CHG C: *' 7CB79BHF5H=CBG μ;A D9F G95GCB :CF ' %& 5B8 - IB89F 8=::9F9BH G95GCBG
Table 3
BBI5@ BIA69F C: - =89BH=V98 6M H<9 ,.F9;F9GG=CB 7CA6=B5H=CB G7<9A9
            .CH5@
'
-             
-K=H<*'   μ;A             
'5BI5@@M 5 
%&
-             
-K=H<*'   μ;A            
'5BI5@@M 5           
-
-             
-K=H<*'   μ;A             
'5BI5@@M 5            
55MG K=H< A=GG=B; 85H5 C: *' CF CH<9F J5F=56@9G C: H<9 FI@9G K9F9 9L5A=B98 65G98 CB IGH) 5B8 G5H9@@=H9 =A5;9G
C: - K=H< *' 9L7998=B; H<9  μ;AK5G 5@GC <=;< 69:CF9 
K=H< 5 G97CB8 D95? =B  :H9F  H<9 :F9EI9B7M K5G @CK9F 5B8
F9A5=B98 F9@5H=J9@M GH56@9 #B %& K9 C6G9FJ98 5 F9@5H=J9@M 7CBGH5BH
BIA69F C: - K=H< GDCF58=7 D95?G =B 79FH5=B M95FG 9:CF9  H<9
- 56CJ9  μ;AK9F9 CB@M :9K 6IH H<5H =G DFC656@M 6975IG9 C:
H<9 <=;< D9F79BH5;9 C: A=GG=B; 85H5 #B - H<9 :F9EI9B7M G99AG HC 69
<=;<9F 69HK99B M95FG  K=H< H<9 9L79DH=CB C:  5B8 
:CF K<=7< K9 <58  A=GG=B; 85H5 :CF *' 5B8 @CK9GH =B 
#B CF89F HC =89BH=:M 5BM GH5H=GH=75@@M G=;B=:=75BH @=B95F HF9B8 C: - :F9
EI9B7M K9 5DD@=98 H<9 .<9=@-9B 9GH=A5HCF 5B8 '5BB%9B85@@ H9GH C:
G=;B=:=75B79 .<9 CB@M GH5H=GH=75@@M G=;B=:=75BH @=B95F HF9B8 K9 :CIB8 K5G
5 8CKBHF9B8 :CF ' - :F9EI9B7M  -M95F DJ5@I9  
6IH H<9 HF9B8 K5G BC @CB;9F GH5H=GH=75@@M G=;B=:=
75BH K<9B H<9 5B5@MG=G :C7IG98 CB - K=H< *' 85=@M 5J9F5;9 56CJ9
 μ;A
*F9J=CIG GHI8=9G =B H<9 F9;=CB :CIB8 5B =B7F95G=B; HF9B8 CJ9F '
8IF=B;  =B 5GGC7=5H=CB K=H< 7<5B;=B; GMBCDH=7 7CB8=H=CBG
!5BCF 9H 5@  5B8 5B =B7F95G=B; HF9B8 CB - :F9EI9B7M 8IF
=B;  5B8  =B MDFIG 7<=@@9CG 9H 5@  6IH 5 897F95G9
=B H<9 - 5BBI5@ BIA69F =B H<9 '98=H9FF5B95B 69HK99B M95FG 
5B8  !?=?5G 9H 5@  8IF=B;  %F5GBCJ 9H 5@
5 =B #GF59@ 5B8 69HK99B  5B8  =B H<9 BCFH< 79BHF5@ 5F95
C: H<9 #69F=5B *9B=BGI@5 57<CFFC 9H 5@ 
.<9 G95GCB5@ =B7=89B79 C: - =B D9F79BH5;9 C: 85MG D9F M95F =G
G<CKB =B =;  .<9F9 =G 5 G=;B=:=75BH G95GCB5@ J5F=5H=CB C: - 57FCGG
H<9 M95FG -DF=B; =G H<9 <=;< 8IGH G95GCB :CF 5@@ G=H9G ' 
UNCORRECTED PROOF
%*+,,'/3'4#, %+'.%'/(4*' /4#,.6+2/.-'.4 888 8888 
Fig. 4. BBI5@ =B7=89B79 C: -  D9F G95GCB 5B8 M95F 5H H<9 H<F99 G=H9G
%&  -  #B ' O C: - =B   5B8
 C77IFF98 8IF=B; GDF=B; "CK9J9F =B M95FG 69:CF9   C:
- C77IFF98 =B H<9 GIAA9F G9BG G@CD9GIAA9F  DJ5@I9  
#B %& - K9F9 C6G9FJ98 ACF9 C:H9B =B H<9 :5@@ O C: -
CJ9F H<9 @5GH :CIF 7CBG97IH=J9 M95FG  "CK9J9F BC GH5H=GH=
75@@M G=;B=:=75BH G95GCB5@ HF9B8 K5G :CIB8 #B - H<9F9 K9F9 5@GC ACF9
- 8IF=B; :5@@  :CF H<9 @5GH VJ9 M95FG  6IH @9GG
8IF=B; H<9 K=BH9F  CJ9F  G9BG G@CD9K=BH9F 
DJ5@I9   DF9J=CIG 5B5@MG=G :CF #GF59@ 8IF=B; 
!5BCF 9H 5@  5B8  %F5GBCJ 9H 5@ 5 M95FG
:CIB8 5B =B7F95G9 =B K=BH9F 8IGH 9J9BHG
  +.4'.3+49
J9B H<CI;<  K5G H<9 M95F K=H< H<9 <=;<9GH BIA69F C: -
=B H<9 F9;=CB H<=G K5G BCH 5@GC H<9 M95F K=H< H<9 GHFCB;9GH 9J9BHG #B
' H<9 5BBI5@ A98=5B -*' 7CB79BHF5H=CB @9J9@G K9F9 O μ;
A K=H< 5 A5L=AIA J5@I9 =B   μ;A  =;  "CK9J9F =B
 5B8  H<9F9 K9F9 ACF9 - 57H=B; 5G CIH@=9FG=B H<9 5BBI5@
- 8=GHF=6IH=CB O μ;A 5B8 H<9 A5L=AIA <F -*'
5J9F5;9 C:  μ;AK5G C6G9FJ98 8IF=B; 5 -5<5F5B 8IGH 9D=GC89
=B   <CIF@M*'  μ;A .<9 IGH)
5BBI5@ A98=5B J5@I9G F5B;98 :FCA  M95F  HC  M95F 
.<9 <=;<9GH IGH) J5@I9G K9F9 C6G9FJ98 =B  5B8  K=H< 5
<F A5L=AIA =B   <F IGH) 
#B %& H<9 5BBI5@ A98=5B -*' 7CB79BHF5H=CBG K9F9 69HK99B
 M95F  5B8  M95F  μ;A .<9 M95F K=H< ACGH
<=;< =BH9BG=HM 9J9BHG K9F9 C6G9FJ98 =B  5B8 H<9 A5L=AIA <F
*' 5J9F5;9 C:  μ;A=B   <CIF@M*'
 μ;A K<=7< 7CFF9GDCB8G HC H<9 G5A9 -5<5F5B 8IGH
9D=GC89 H<5H ' 9LD9F=9B798 .<9 <=;<9GH IGH) J5@I9G :CF %& K9F9
C6G9FJ98 =B   5B8  K=H< 5 <F A5L=AIA =B  
 <F IGH) 
#B - *' 5BBI5@ A98=5B @9J9@G 8IF=B; - J5F=98 69HK99B 
M95F  5B8  M95F M95F K=H<  A=GG=B; 85H5 μ;A
#B  5 M95F K=H< G5H=G:57HCFM 5J5=@56=@=HM C: 85H5 A98=5B -*'
K5G  μ;A .<9 M95FG  5B8  9LD9F=9B798 H<9 ACGH :F9
EI9BH =BH9BG9 9J9BHG .<9 ACGH 9LHF9A9 9J9BH K5G BCH C6G9FJ98 =B 
5G =H K5G =B H<9 75G9 C: ' 5B8 %& 9J9B - K5G =BWI9B798 6M H<5H
8IGH 9J9BH   < *'  μ;A .<9 A5L=AIA 85=@M
*' 7CB79BHF5H=CB :CF - K5G C6G9FJ98 =B  K=H< 5 <F 5J9F
5;9 C:  μ;A <CIF@M*'  8IF=B; 5
H<F9985M -5<5F5B 8IGH 9D=GC89 .<9 <CIF@M *' 7CB79BHF5H=CB H<CI;<
F957<98 H<9 A5L=AIA  μ;A =B   8IF=B; 5B
O<CIF 8IGH 9D=GC89 IGH) F5B;98 :FCA  =B  HC  =B
 K=H< H<9 <=;<9GH 85=@M IGH) 5J9F5;9 J5@I9 =B  
 <F IGH)  )B CJ9F5@@ =H G99AG H<5H :CF -  K5G H<9
M95F K=H< H<9 ACGH :F9EI9BH 5B8 ACGH =BH9BG9 8IGH 9D=GC89G )B H<9 G5A9
H=A9 =H K5G H<9 8F=9GH M95F C: H<9 897589 K=H< HCH5@ 5BBI5@ DF97=D=H5H=CB
C:  AA  AA =B  AA =B 
.=A9 G9F=9G 5B5@MG=G C: - =BH9BG=HM *' IGH) F9J95@98
H<5H H<9 HF9B8 =G BCH @=B95F =; G<CKG H<9 89J=5H=CB :FCA H<9 *'
5B8 IGH) 85=@M A95B CJ9F H=A9 75@9B85F 85H9 C: - 19 C6
G9FJ98 5 BCBACBCHCB=7 HF9B8 CJ9F H=A9 #B ' -*' @9J9@G K9F9
56CJ9 H<9 5J9F5;9 95F@M =B  DFC656@M 8I9 HC H<9 ACGH G9J9F9
9J9BH C: H<9 897589 F957<=B; 5 A=B=AIA 8IF=B; @5H9  HC 95F@M
 5B8 :C@@CK=B; 5 F9@5H=J9@M GH56@9 *' HF9B8 5:H9FK5F8G K=H< GCA9
UNCORRECTED PROOF
%*+,,'/3'4#, %+'.%'/(4*' /4#,.6+2/.-'.4 888 8888 
Fig. 5. CLD@CHG C: *' 7CB79BHF5H=CBG μ;A 5B8 IGH) 8IF=B; - D9F M95F :CF ' %& 5B8 -
Fig. 6. .=A9 HF9B8G C: -*' 5B8 -IGH) :CF ' %& 5B8 - GH5H=CB 5G<98 @=B9G F9DF9G9BH H<9  7CBV89B79 =BH9FJ5@G :CF H<9 9GH=A5H9 5B8 A5F?G CB L5L=G F9DF9G9BH H<9
9B8 C: H<9 M95F
GA5@@9F GDCF58=7 D95?G G=A=@5F D5HH9FB K5G C6G9FJ98 :CF %& GH5H=CB
IGH) :C@@CK98 5 8=::9F9BH D5HH9FB H<5B H<9 CB9 C: *' 5H 6CH< GH5
H=CBG #B ' IGH) G99A98 HC 69 =B7F95G=B; :FCA  IBH=@ 
K<9B =H F957<9G 5 D@5H95I IGH) =B %& :C@@CKG 5 <=;< J5F=56=@=HM
K=H< 5 6=; 8FCD =B M95FG  HC  #B - *' @9J9@G G99A98 HC =B
7F95G9 :FCA  H<FCI;<  5B8 897F95G98 5:H9F H<5H K=H< 5 G97CB8
GA5@@9F D95? =B  #B  5 D95? :CF IGH) K5G 5@GC C6G9FJ98
-=A=@5F D5HH9FBG K9F9 C6G9FJ98 :CF <CIF@M *' 8IF=B; -  =; -
.<9 VB8=B;G :FCA ' GHI8=9G CB 8IGH =BH9BG=HM J5FM 6M @C75H=CB
GHI8M D9F=C8 5B8 A9H<C8C@C;M *9M 9H 5@  :CIB8 BC G=;B=:=
75BH HF9B8 C: :F=75B 8IGH 7CBHF=6IH=CB HC *' CJ9F 79BHF5@ 5B8 GCIH<
9FB '98=H9FF5B95B 5F95G =B7@I8=B; !F9979 5B8 MDFIG :FCA  HC
 K=H< GDCF58=7 5BBI5@ D95?G  897F95G=B; HF9B8 CB *' 7CB
HF=6IH=CB K5G C6G9FJ98 :FCA  CF  H<FCI;<  =B K9GH9FB
5B8 79BHF5@ '98=H9FF5B95B 5F95G %F5GBCJ 9H 5@ 5 9L5A=B98
- 9J9BHG =B H<F99 7=H=9G =B #GF59@ :CF H<9 M95F D9F=C8 
UNCORRECTED PROOF
%*+,,'/3'4#, %+'.%'/(4*' /4#,.6+2/.-'.4 888 8888 
5B8 :CIB8 H<5H G=B79  - 9J9BHG 6975A9 ACF9 G9J9F9 19 8=8 BCH
=89BH=:M H<9 G5A9 D5HH9FB =B CIF 5B5@MG9G .<=G =G DFC656@M 8I9 HC H<9 :57H
H<5H H<9 D9F=C8 C: =BJ9GH=;5H=CB =G :FCA  CBK5F8G 5G K9@@ 5G H<9 :57H
H<5H 5 8=::9F9BH GH5H=GH=75@ 5DDFC57< K5G 58CDH98 J5B 9H 5@ 
G<CK98 H<5H GIF:579 K=B8 D5HH9FBG 5F9 F9GDCBG=6@9 :CF H<9 J5F=5H=CB C:
(CFH< :F=75 8IGH 9A=GG=CBG  <=GHCF=7 F95B5@MG=G :FCA  HC 
:FCA H<9 G5A9 5IH<CFG ;5J9 5 GH5H=GH=75@@M G=;B=:=75BH 8CKBHF9B8 =B H<9
8IGH 9A=GG=CBG 5GGC7=5H98 K=H< 5B =B7F95G9 =B ;F99B<CIG9 ;5G 9A=GG=CBG
#B 19GH :F=75 -5<9@ 5B =B7F95G9 C: 8IGH 9A=GG=CBG K5G C6G9FJ98 CJ9F
H<9 @5GH 897589G GH5FH=B; :FCA @5H9 G 5B8 =H K5G F9@5H98 HC 8FCI;<HG
5B8 HC H<9 =B7F95G9 =B H<9 H<F9G<C@8 K=B8 J9@C7=HM :CF 8IGH 9BHF5=BA9BH
!CI8=9  'C89@ DFC>97H=CBG GI;;9GH 5B =B7F95G9 =B - 9J9BHG
=BH9BG=HM &9@=9J9@8 9H 5@  <CK9J9F H<9 :IHIF9 C: - K=@@ 89
D9B8 CB 5BH<FCDC;9B=7 DF9GGIF9 CB 89G9FH GIF:579G B5HIF5@ 7@=A5H=7 J5F=
56=@=HM 9; =B H<9 @ (=RC -CIH<9FB )G7=@@5H=CB CF H<9 (CFH< H@5BH=7
)G7=@@5H=CB 5B8 7@=A5H9 7<5B;9 !CI8=9 
  42'.& /6'2 4*' ,#34 47/&'%#&'3 
!FCIB8 *' 85H5 :FCA MDFIG 5F9 5J5=@56@9 G=B79  5B8 H<9M
K9F9 DF9J=CIG@M IG98 HC GHI8M *' @9J9@G 5B8 - HF9B8G =B MDFIG
:CF H<9 D9F=C8  7<=@@9CG 9H 5@  19 H<9F9:CF9 9L
D5B898 CIF HF9B8G 5B5@MG=G 5B8 9L5A=B9 H<9 - =B7=89B79 CJ9F H<9
@5GH  M95FG :CF MDFIG "CK9J9F IGH) =G 5J5=@56@9 :FCA M95F
 5B8 CBK5F8G 5B8 H<9F9:CF9 K9 K9F9 BCH 56@9 HC IG9 =H :CF H<=G
5B5@MG=G #B CF89F HC 9BGIF9 H<5H - K9F9 =89BH=V98 =B H<9 G5A9 K5M
:CF 5@@ H<9 M95FG K9 IG98 H<9 G5A9 HCC@G :FCA H<9 DF9J=CIG 5B5@MG=G
19 VFGH =89BH=V98 GIGD97H98 85MG C: <=;< D5FH=7@9 @9J9@G 65G98 CB =
H<9 H< D9F79BH=@9 C: *' 85H5 :FCA (=7CG=5 IF65B *'   μ;
A 5B8 M=5'5F=B5 2M@=5HCG 657?;FCIB8 *'   μ;A GH5H=CB
5B8 == H<9 7CA6=B5H=CB C: <=;< )  5B8 @CK B;GHFCA 9L
DCB9BH  H<5H G=;B=V9G <=;< @C58 C: 7C5FG9 D5FH=7@9G =B H<9 5=F
5FB565 5B8 !C66= !?=?5G 9H 5@  .<9 ) 5B8
B;GHFCA 9LDCB9BH 85H5 K9F9 C6H5=B98 :FCA ')#- 'C89F5H9 ,9GC@I
H=CB #A5;=B; -D97HFCF58=CA9H9F .,, 99D @I9 D@5H:CFA 5H 5 GD5
H=5@ F9GC@IH=CB C: S Y S O ?A Y  ?A 5J5=@56@9 G=B79 
.<9 85H5 K9F9 8CKB@C5898 :FCA H<9 !=CJ5BB= CB@=B9 85H5 GMGH9A 89
J9@CD98 5B8 A5=BH5=B98 6M H<9 (- !- #- <HHDG;=CJ5BB=;G:7
B5G5;CJ;=CJ5BB= - K9F9 H<9B 7CBVFA98 :FCA "3-*&#. 657?HF5
>97HCF=9G -H9=B 9H 5@ ,C@D< 9H 5@  5B8 G5H9@@=H9 =A5;9G
:FCA (- 1CF@8J=9K .<=G A9H<C8C@C;M K5G 5DD@=98 HC MDFIG 85H5
:CF H<9 D9F=C8  H<9 M95F K<=7< G5H9@@=H9 85H5 GH5FH98 HC 69 5J5=@56@9
H<FCI;< 
19 =89BH=V98  - =B MDFIG 8IF=B;  5B8  M95FG
K<9F9 :CF ACF9 H<5B <5@: C: 9J9BHG B   *' @9J9@G 9L799898
H<9 85=@M / @=A=H C:  μ;A5H H<9 IF65B G=H9 .<9 5BBI5@ =B7=89B79
K5G K=H<=B H<9 GA5@@ F5B;9 C:  - D9F M95F K=H< HKC D95?G =B
 B   5B8  B   :C@@CK98 6M HKC M95FG C: @CK =B7=
89B79 C: - =B  B   5B8  B    =;  "CK9J9F
9J9B H<9F9 K5G 5 G=;B=:=75BH =B7F95G=B; HF9B8 :FCA  HC  G9BG
G@CD9   DJ5@I9   BC GH5H=GH=75@@M G=;B=:=75BH HF9B8 K5G C6
G9FJ98 :FCA  HC  G9BG G@CD9   DJ5@I9   19 8=8 BCH
VB8 5BM GH5H=GH=75@@M G=;B=:=75BH HF9B8 CB G95GCB5@ J5F=56=@=HM C: - :F9
EI9B7M 5B8 =BH9BG=HM  =; -
#B MDFIG H<9 8IGH *' 5BBI5@ A98=5B F5B;98 :FCA  μ;A
 HC  μ;A μ;A5H H<9 (=7CG=5 IF65B G=H9 5B8 :FCA
 μ;A HC  μ;A μ;A5H H<9 FIF5@ 5F95  =;
 .<9 <=;<9GH <F A5L=AIA 8IGH *' @9J9@ K5G C6G9FJ98 =B 
IF65B  μ;A FIF5@  μ;A 5B8 H<9 @CK9GH =B  IF
65B  μ;A 5B8  FIF5@  μ;A
IF=B; H<9 G5A9 H=A9 H<9 5BBI5@ HCH5@ DF97=D=H5H=CB 5H H<5@5GG5 '9
H9CFC@C;=75@ -H5H=CB =B (=7CG=5 F5B;98 :FCA  AA =B  HC  AA
=B  HCH5@ DF97=D=H5H=CB =G 75@7I@5H98 :CF 75@9B85F M95FG .<9 8F=9GH
M95F :FCA H<9 @5GH  M95FG K5G 5@GC H<9 M95F K=H< H<9 <=;<9GH :F9EI9B7M
C: - 9L7998=B; H<9 / 85=@M @=A=H 5B8 <=;<9GH 5BBI5@ -*' 7CB
79BHF5H=CB :CF H<9 IF65B 5F95 C: (=7CG=5
.<9 8IGH *' 5BBI5@ 5J9F5;9 A95GIF98 5H H<9 IF65B 5B8 FIF5@
GH5H=CB =B H<9 5F95 C: (=7CG=5 G<CK98 5 GH5H=GH=75@@M G=;B=:=75BH 89
7F95G9 *'IF65B G9BG G@CD9   DJ5@I9   *'FIF5@ G9BG
G@CD9   DJ5@I9   6IH :CF H<9 IF65B G=H9 H<9 897F95G9 K5G
BCH ACBCHCB=7  =;  .<9 897F95G9 K5G C6G9FJ98 8IF=B; H<9 GDF=B;
G95GCB 5H 6CH< G=H9G *' IF65B G9BG G@CD9   DJ5@I9  
*'FIF5@ G9BG G@CD9   DJ5@I9   =; -
  3/52%' /( /2+)+.
.<9 =BWI9B79 C: H<9 HKC A5>CF 89G9FH 8IGH GCIF79G C: 5GH9FB
'98=H9FF5B95B CB H<9 5BBI5@ @9J9@G K5G 9L5A=B98 :FCA "3-*&#. HF5
>97HCF=9G .56@9  'CGH C: - CF=;=B5H98 :FCA -5<5F5B 89G9FH 5B8
G97CB8@M :FCA H<9 89G9FHG =B H<9 '=88@9 5GH B-5<5F5B 
B'  B'-5<5F5B  %& =G =BWI9B798 5@ACGH 9L7@I
G=J9@M :FCA -5<5F5B 89G9FH B-5<5F5B   B'   B'-5<5
F5B   5B8 =H =G H<9F9:CF9 BCH :IFH<9F 8=G7IGG98 =B H<=G G97H=CB  GA5@@
BIA69F C: - K5G =BWI9B798 6M 5=F A5GG9G CF=;=B5H=B; 6M 6CH< -5<5
F5B 5B8 '=88@9 5GH9FB 89G9FHG G=AI@H5B9CIG@M "CK9J9F 8IF=B; M95FG
 5B8  =B MDFIG 5B8 M95F  =B #GF59@ H<9 BIA69F C: -
CF=;=B5H=B; :FCA ' 89G9FHG K5G =B7F95G98 )B 5J9F5;9 - CF=;=B5H=B;
:FCA (CFH< :F=75 5B8 '=88@9 5GH K9F9 C: <=;<9F =BH9BG=HM =B ' K<=@9
H<=G K5G H<9 75G9 :CF 9D=GC89G CF=;=B5H=B; :FCA H<9 -5<5F5B 89G9FH =B -
&=B95F HF9B8G 5B5@MG=G G<CK98 H<5H - CF=;=B5H=B; GC@9@M :FCA -5
<5F5 G9BG G@CD9   DJ5@I9   CF :FCA 6CH< -5<5F5B
Fig. 7. (IA69F C: =89BH=V98 89G9FH 8IGH 85MG 6@I9 5B8 89G9FH 8IGH 85MG K=H< *' 7CB79BHF5H=CB 56CJ9  μ;A5H H<9 IF65B G=H9 F98 =B MDFIG D9F M95F  CF =BH9FDF9H5H=CB C: H<9
F9:9F9B79G HC 7C@CF =B H<=G V;IF9 @9;9B8 H<9 F9589F =G F9:9FF98 HC H<9 K96 J9FG=CB C: H<=G 5FH=7@9
UNCORRECTED PROOF
 %*+,,'/3'4#, %+'.%'/(4*' /4#,.6+2/.-'.4 888 8888 
Fig. 8. CLD@CHG C: *' 7CB79BHF5H=CBG μ;A 8IF=B; - 5H H<9 MDFIG IF65B 5B8 FIF5@ 5F95G D9F M95F
Fig. 9. .=A9 HF9B8G C: -*' :CF MDFIG IF65B GH5H=CB 5G<98 @=B9G F9DF9G9BH H<9
 7CBV89B79 =BH9FJ5@G :CF H<9 9GH=A5H9 5B8 A5F?G CB L5L=G F9DF9G9BH H<9 9B8 C: H<9
M95F
5B8 ' 89G9FHG HC;9H<9F -5<5F5B' G9BG G@CD9  
DJ5@I9   =B MDFIG 5B8 :FCA DIF9 -5<5F5B 8IGH =B #GF59@ G9BG
G@CD9   DJ5@I9   897F95G98 CJ9F M95FG (C G=;B=:=75BH 5B
BI5@ HF9B8 K5G :CIB8 :CF H<9=F =BH9BG=HM  =; -
4. Conclusions
#B H<=G GHI8M K9 9L5A=B98 - 9J9BHG =B H<F99 5GH9FB '98=H9F
F5B95B 5F95G MDFIG F9H9!F9979 #GF59@ CJ9F 5 M95F D9F=C8 
H<FCI;<  .<9 IG9 C: ;FCIB8 5B8 7C@IAB5F 59FCGC@ 85H5 A589 DCG
G=6@9 H<9 =89BH=V75H=CB 5B8 7<5F57H9F=N5H=CB C: @CK 5B8 <=;< =BH9BG=HM
9J9BHG 5MG K=H< <F 5J9F5;9 *' 7CB79BHF5H=CB 56CJ9 O μ;A
K9F9 :CIB8 HC 69 5 G=;B=:=75BH =B8=75HCF C: - :CF H<9 657?;FCIB8
G=H9G C: MDFIG  μ;A 5B8 F9H9  μ;A "=;<9F H<F9G<C@8G
K9F9 :CIB8 :CF 99F -<9J5 89D9B8=B; CB H<9 G95GCB :5@@ 5B8 GDF=B;
*'   μ;A K=BH9F 5B8 GIAA9F *'   μ;A
#BH9F5BBI5@ J5F=56=@=HM 5B8 GD5H=5@ 8=::9F9B79G K9F9 C6G9FJ98 :CF
8=::9F9BH 9J9BH 7<5F57H9F=GH=7G 'CF9 :F9EI9BH 9J9BHG K9F9 C6G9FJ98 =B
MDFIG 6IH #GF59@ 9LD9F=9B798 <=;<9F =BH9BG=HM 9J9BHG @@ H<F99 5F95G
K9F9 5H H=A9G G=AI@H5B9CIG@M 5::97H98 6M - 5B8 H<=G C77IFF98 :CF
 C: H<9 - 5H 957< G=H9 #GF59@ 5B8 MDFIG <58 ACF9 7CA
ACB - 5G H<9M 5F9 6CH< =BWI9B798 :FCA (CFH< :F=75 5B8 F56=5B
*9B=BGI@5 89G9FHG F9H9 =G F5F9@M =AD57H98 6M 89G9FHG :FCA H<9 5GH #B
H9F5BBI5@ J5F=56=@=HM C: - :F9EI9B7M 5B8 =BH9BG=HM :C@@CK98 5 F9@5
H=J9@M GH958M HF9B8 .<9 5BBI5@ D5HH9FB C: - :F9EI9B7M K5G G=A=@5F :CF
UNCORRECTED PROOF
%*+,,'/3'4#, %+'.%'/(4*' /4#,.6+2/.-'.4 888 8888  
Table 4
BBI5@ BIA69F C: - *' μ;A  5B8 IGH) @9J9@G 6M 89G9FH 5F95 C: CF=;=B
            .CH5@B *' μ;A IGH)
'
-5<5F5B               U   U 
'              U   U 
-5<5F5B'               U   U 
-
-5<5F5B               U   U 
'              U   U 
-5<5F5B'               U   U 
5@@ H<F99 G=H9G F957<=B; 5 D95? =B  "CK9J9F D95?G C: CH<9F -
7<5F57H9F=GH=7G *'  <5J9F5;9 IGH) <CIF@M 5B8 85=@M *'
A5L=A5 G95GCB5@=HM K9F9 C6G9FJ98 =B 8=::9F9BH M95FG A5=B@M 8I9 HC H<9
=BH9F5BBI5@ J5F=56=@=HM C: @C75@ F9;=CB5@ 5B8 ;@C65@ 7@=A5H=7 7CB8=H=CBG
#B #GF59@ 5B8 MDFIG H<CI;< H<9 M95F K=H< H<9 <=;<9GH - :F9EI9B7M
5B8 =BH9BG=HM K5G H<9 M95F K=H< H<9 @CK9GH DF97=D=H5H=CB 5H5 5J5=@56=@
=HM F9GHF=7H98 CIF >C=BH 5B5@MG=G :CF H<9 H<F99 G=H9G HC H<9 @5GH 897589 CB@M
"CK9J9F 5B5@MG=G :CF MDFIG 69B9VH98 :FCA 5J5=@56@9 85H5 :CF  M95FG
H H<=G G=H9 - :F9EI9B7M :C@@CK98 5 F9@5H=J9@M GH958M HF9B8 CJ9F H<9
M95FG 6IH G95GCB5@=HM <5G 7<5B;98 89ACBGHF5H=B; 5 897F95G9 C: 8IGH =B
H9BG=HM 8IF=B; GDF=B; G95GCB
.F9B8 5B5@MG9G :CF - 7<5F57H9F=GH=7G 8=::9F 57FCGG GHI8=9G @C75H=CBG
5B8 H=A9 D9F=C8G G K9 <5J9 G99B =B H<=G KCF? H<9 7<C=79 C: H<9 GHI8M
D9F=C8 IB89F 9L5A=B5H=CB 75B =AD57H H<9 F9GI@HG IHIF9 GHI8=9G 5F9
B99898 CB H<9 7<5B;9G C: - 7<5F57H9F=GH=7G CJ9F G9J9F5@ 897589G 5B8
=B F9@5H=CB HC 7@=A5H9 7<5B;9 =B7@I8=B; GMBCDH=7G75@9 7CB8=H=CBG
Declaration of competing interest
.<9 5IH<CFG 897@5F9 H<5H H<9M <5J9 BC ?BCKB 7CAD9H=B; VB5B7=5@ =B
H9F9GHG CF D9FGCB5@ F9@5H=CBG<=DG H<5H 7CI@8 <5J9 5DD95F98 HC =BWI9B79
H<9 KCF? F9DCFH98 =B H<=G D5D9F
Acknowledgement
.<=G KCF? K5G GIDDCFH98 6M H<9 IFCD95B /B=CB K=H<=B H<9 :F5A9
KCF? C: H<9 &#  ' *FC;F5A IB89F H<9 !F5BH ;F99A9BH &# 
3
Appendix A. Supplementary data
-IDD@9A9BH5FM 85H5 HC H<=G 5FH=7@9 75B 69 :CIB8 CB@=B9 5H <HHDG8C=
CF;>G7=HCH9BJ
References
7<=@@9CG - J5BG $- 3=5@@CIFCG *% %@95BH<CIG - -7<K5FHN $ %CIHF5?=G * 
*' 7CB79BHF5H=CB @9J9@G 5H 5B IF65B 5B8 657?;FCIB8 G=H9 =B MDFIG H<9 =AD57H C:
IF65B GCIF79G 5B8 8IGH GHCFAG $ =F 15GH9 '5B5;9 GGC7  
7<=@@9CG - @)N5=F=  @5<A58  !5FG<=7?  (9CD<MHCI ' CI<5AF5 1
35GG=B '  %CIHF5?=G *  7IH9 9::97HG C: 5=F DC@@IH=CB CB ACFH5@=HM 5 M95F
5B5@MG=G =B %IK5=H BJ=FCB #BH  
5FB565  !C66= !*  9FCGC@ G95GCB5@ J5F=56=@=HM CJ9F H<9 '98=H9FF5B95B F9;=CB
5B8 F9@5H=J9 =AD57H C: A5F=H=A9 7CBH=B9BH5@ 5B8 -5<5F5B 8IGH D5FH=7@9G CJ9F H<9 65G=B
:FCA ')#- 85H5 =B H<9 M95F  HACG <9A *<MG  
57<CFFC 0 IF;CG ' '5H9CG  .C@985BC  9BBCIB5 3 .CFF9G  89 FIHCG
' "9F;I985G   #BJ9BHCFM C: :F=75B 89G9FH 8IGH 9J9BHG =B H<9 BCFH<79B
HF5@ #69F=5B *9B=BGI@5 =B  65G98 CB GIBD<CHCA9H9F,)(. 5B8 D5FH=7I
@5H9A5GG'* 85H5 HACG <9A *<MG  
<I8BCJG?M  %CIHF5?=G * %CGH=BG?=  *FC7HCF -* !5FG<=7?   -D5
H=5@ 5B8 H9ADCF5@ J5F=56=@=HM =B 89G9FH 8IGH 5B8 5BH<FCDC;9B=7 DC@@IH=CB =B #F5E
 $ =F 15GH9 '5B5;9 GGC7  
=5DCI@=  '5BCIG5?5G '# 0F5HC@=G - 05G=@5HCI 0 *5H9F5?= - 5=F57<H5F= %
+I9FC@ 2 A5HC  @5GHI9M  %5F5B5G=CI  &I75F9@@=  (5J5 - 5@NC@5=
! !=5B9@@9 0& C@CA6=  @J9G  IGHC8=C  *=C  -DMFCI  %5@@CG !
@9:H<9F=58=G %  #,/-&#  D@IG 9GH=A5H=CB C: B5HIF5@ GCIF79 7CBHF=6IH=CBG
HC IF65B 5A6=9BH 5=F *' 5B8 *' 7CB79BHF5H=CBG =B GCIH<9FB IFCD9  =AD@=75
H=CBG HC 7CAD@=5B79 K=H< @=A=H J5@I9G HACG <9A *<MG  
5@C ' @5GHI9M  ,=DC@@  *9F9N ( '=B;I=@@CB ' +I9FC@ 2 *5B8C@V '
 9H97H=CB C: -5<5F5B 8IGH 5B8 6=CA5GG 6IFB=B; 9J9BHG IG=B; B95FF95@H=A9 =B
H9BG=J9 59FCGC@ CDH=75@ DFCD9FH=9G =B H<9 BCFH<K9GH9FB '98=H9FF5B95B HACG <9A
*<MG  
J5B . @5A5BH  !59H5B= ' !I=7<5F8   .<9 D5GH DF9G9BH 5B8 :IHIF9 C:
:F=75B 8IGH (5HIF9  
@CF9G ,' %5M5 ( G9F ) -5@H5B -  .<9 9::97H C: A=B9F5@ 8IGH HF5BGDCFH CB
*' 7CB79BHF5H=CBG 5B8 D<MG=75@ DFCD9FH=9G =B #GH5B6I@ 8IF=B;  HACG
,9G  
!5BCF  -HIDD  @D9FH *   A9H<C8 HC 89H9FA=B9 H<9 9::97H C: A=B9F5@ 8IGH
59FCGC@G CB 5=F EI5@=HM HACG BJ=FCB  
!5BCF  )G9H=BG?M # -HIDD  @D9FH *  #B7F95G=B; HF9B8 C: :F=75B 8IGH CJ9F
 M95FG =B H<9 95GH9FB '98=H9FF5B95B $ !9CD<MG ,9G HACG 
!9F5GCDCI@CG  %CIJ5F5?=G ! 565G5?5@=G * 0F9?CIGG=G ' *IH5I8 $* '=<5@CDCI
@CG (  )F=;=B 5B8 J5F=56=@=HM C: D5FH=7I@5H9 A5HH9F *' A5GG 7CB79BHF5H=CBG
CJ9F H<9 5GH9FB '98=H9FF5B95B HACG BJ=FCB  
!?=?5G  "5HN=5B5GH5GG=CI ( '=<5@CDCI@CG ( %5HGCI@=G 0 %5N58N=G - *9M $
+I9FC@ 2 .CFF9G )  .<9 F9;=A9 C: =BH9BG9 89G9FH 8IGH 9D=GC89G =B H<9 '98=H9F
F5B95B 65G98 CB 7CBH9ADCF5FM G5H9@@=H9 C6G9FJ5H=CBG 5B8 ;FCIB8 A95GIF9A9BHG H
ACG <9A *<MG  
!CI8=9 -  9G9FH 8IGH 5B8 <IA5B <95@H< 8=GCF89FG BJ=FCB #BH  
#BB9GG  89G ' ;IGHQ*5B5F985  5FFP $ 9B98=7HCK  @97<G7<A=8H '
CA=B;I9N $$ B;9@9B , G?9G " @9AA=B; $ "I=>B9B 0 $CB9G & %=D@=B;
4 '5GG5FH - *5FF=B;HCB ' *9I7< 0" ,5N=B;9F ' ,9AM - -7<I@N ' -IHH=9
'  .<9 '- F95B5@MG=G C: 5HACGD<9F=7 7CADCG=H=CB HACG <9A *<MG 

$57CJ=89G * .<9CD<=@CI  .MAJ=CG - *5G<=5F89G -  1=B8 GH5H=GH=7G :CF
7C5GH5@ GH5H=CBG =B MDFIG .<9CF DD@ @=A5HC@  
%5@=J=H=G ( !9F5GCDCI@CG  0F9?CIGG=G ' %CIJ5F5?=G ! %I6=@5M ( "5HN=5B5GH5G
G=CI ( 05F85J5G # '=<5@CDCI@CG (  IGH HF5BGDCFH CJ9F H<9 95GH9FB '98=H9F
F5B95B 89F=J98 :FCA .CH5@ )NCB9 '5DD=B; -D97HFCA9H9F 9FCGC@ ,C6CH=7 (9HKCF?
5B8 GIF:579 A95GIF9A9BHG $ !9CD<MG ,9GHACG 
%F5GBCJ " %5HF5 # %CIHF5?=G * F=;9F '  CBHF=6IH=CB C: 8IGH GHCFAG HC
*' @9J9@G =B 5B IF65B 5F=8 9BJ=FCBA9BH $ =F 15GH9 '5B5;9 GGC7  
%F5GBCJ " %5HF5 # F=;9F '  #B7F95G9 =B 8IGH GHCFA F9@5H98 *' 7CB79BHF5
H=CBG 5 H=A9 G9F=9G 5B5@MG=G C:  BJ=FCB *C@@IH  
%F5GBCJ " %@CC; # F=;9F ' %5HF5 #  .<9 GD5H=CH9ADCF5@ 8=GHF=6IH=CB C:
D5FH=7I@5H9 A5HH9F 8IF=B; B5HIF5@ 8IGH 9D=GC89G 5H 5B IF65B G75@9 *&C- )B9 
9
&9@=9J9@8 $ "58>=B=7C@5CI * %CGHCDCI@CI  !=5BB5?CDCI@CG  *CNN9F  .5B5F<H9
' .MF@=G   'C89@ DFC>97H98 <95H 9LHF9A9G 5B8 5=F DC@@IH=CB =B H<9 95GH9FB
'98=H9FF5B95B 5B8 '=88@9 5GH =B H<9 HK9BHMVFGH 79BHIFM ,9; BJ=FCB <5B; 

'=7<59@=89G - JF=D=8CI * %5@@CG !  'CB=HCF=B; 5B8 DF98=7H=B; -5<5F5B 9G9FH
8IGH 9J9BHG =B H<9 95GH9FB '98=H9FF5B95B 195H<9F  
'=7<59@=89G - *5FCB=G  ,9H5@=G  .MAJ=CG   'CB=HCF=B; 5B8 :CF975GH=B; 5=F
DC@@IH=CB @9J9@G 6M 9LD@C=H=B; G5H9@@=H9 ;FCIB865G98 5B8 GMBCDH=7 85H5 9@56CF5H98
K=H< F9;F9GG=CB AC89@G 8J '9H9CFC@
'=88@9HCB ( 3=5@@CIFCG * %@95BH<CIG - %C@C?CHFCB= ) -7<K5FHN $ C7?9FM 1
9AC?F=HCI * %CIHF5?=G *   M95F H=A9G9F=9G 5B5@MG=G C: F9GD=F5HCFM 5B8
75F8=CJ5G7I@5F ACF6=8=HM =B (=7CG=5 MDFIG H<9 9::97H C: G<CFHH9FA 7<5B;9G =B 5=F
DC@@IH=CB 5B8 8IGH GHCFAG BJ=FCB "95@H< 
'CINCIF=89G * %IA5F * (9CD<MHCI '%  GG9GGA9BH C: @CB;H9FA A95GIF9
A9BHG C: D5FH=7I@5H9 A5HH9F 5B8 ;5G9CIG DC@@IH5BHG =B -CIH<5GH '98=H9FF5B95B H
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Long-term particulate matter (PM) mass concentration measurements have been performed in Cyprus at three major cities, one industrial area and two remote stations covering the entire southern part of the island in an effort to assess; i) the spatial and temporal variability of sub-10 μm (PM10), fine (PM2.5) and submicron (PM1) particulate matter in the eastern Mediterranean, ii) the main source areas contributing to their levels and iii) the relative contribution of regional and local anthropogenic and natural sources to PM levels. It was found that dust is responsible for the 33.6 ± 5.2% or about 10 μg m⁻³ of the annual PM10 levels reported in background stations; the latter underlines the significant contribution of natural sources on the ambient PM10 amounts in the eastern Mediterranean region. A significant (p < 0.001) decreasing trend of 0.7 ± 0.1 μg m⁻³ y⁻¹ was observed when both PM10 and PM2.5 annual values are considered, indicating contribution from both natural and anthropogenic sources to this tendency. By considering the PMx (with x = 1, 2.5 and 10) mass concentrations obtained at the background station of Agia Marina as representative of the regional influence, the local influence of the urban and industrial sites on the measured PMx levels can be estimated. On average, 36–44% of the observed PM10 levels at the urban and industrial locations is estimated to originate from local anthropogenic and/or natural emissions including vehicle, biomass-burning, shipping emissions (in Limassol), airport related emissions (in Larnaca), resuspension of dust and sea-salt (in coastal locations). These local emissions are almost equally distributed in the fine and coarse fractions as 40–50% of the local PM10 amounts are due to fine particles emissions. The above results highlight significant emissions from both fine mode (e.g. residential heating and traffic) and coarse mode urban emissions (e.g. dust resuspension, wear and tear in brakes and tires, respectively) in urban and industrial locations in Cyprus.
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Mineral dust is the most significant source of natural particulate matter. In urban regions, where > 50% of the world population is currently living, local emissions of particulate matter are further aggravated by mineral dust loadings from deserts. The megacity of Istanbul is located in an area sensitive to local pollution due to transportation (i.e., private cars, public transportation, aircrafts, ships, heavy diesel trucks, etc.), industrial emissions, residential heating, and long-range transport from Europe, Asia, and deserts. In this work, the effect of desert dust transport on PM10 concentrations and physical properties was investigated for the period of 2007–2014 in the touristic area of Aksaray, Istanbul. The Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (DREAM8b) was used to predict dust loading in Istanbul during dust transport events. Variations on surface PM10 concentrations were investigated according to seasons and during dust transport events. Cluster analysis of air mass backward trajectories was useful to understand frequency analysis and air mass trajectory dependence of PM10 concentrations on dust loadings. The effect of desert dust transport on aerosol optical depths was also investigated. It was observed that PM10 concentrations exceeded the air quality standard of 50 μg m− 3 50% of the time during the study period. The largest number of exceedances in air quality standard occurred during the spring and winter seasons. Approximately 40–60% of the dust loading occurs during the spring. Desert dust and non-desert dust sources contribute to 22–72% and 48–81% of the ground-level PM10 concentrations in Aksaray, Istanbul during the study period. Averaged AOD observed during dust transport events in spring and summer ranged 0.35–0.55. Cluster analysis resolved over 82% the variability of individual air mass backward trajectories into 5 clusters. Overall, air masses arriving to Istanbul at 500 m are equally distributed into northern (52%) and southern (48%). Frequency analysis of PM10 concentrations with mean air mass backward trajectories showed that PM10 from local anthropogenic sources may be enhanced by long-range transport from the African Desert, Asian Desert, Arabian Peninsula, Russia, and Ukraine. The work presented here provides the first integrated assessment for evaluation of occurrence and quantification of the effect of dust transport to ground-level PM10 concentrations in Istanbul, which is helpful for human health prevention and implementation of air quality control measures.
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Satellite imaging has emerged as a method for monitoring regional air pollution and detecting areas of high dust concentrations. Unlike ground observations, continuous data monitoring is available with global coverage of terrestrial and atmospheric components. In this study we test the utility of different sources of satellite data to assess air pollution concentrations in Iraq. SeaWiFS and MODIS Deep Blue (DB) aerosol optical depth (AOD) products were evaluated and used to characterize the spatial and temporal pollution levels from the late 1990s through 2010. The AOD and Ångström exponent (an indicator of particle size, since smaller Ångström exponent values reflect a source that includes larger particles) were correlated on 50 × 50 km spatial resolution. Generally, AOD and Ångström exponent were inversely correlated, suggesting a significant contribution of coarse particles from dust storms to AOD maxima. Although the majority of grid cells exhibited this trend, a weaker relationship in other locations suggested an additional contribution of fine particles from anthropogenic sources. Tropospheric NO2 densities from the OMI satellite were elevated over cities, also consistent with a contribution from anthropogenic sources. Our analysis demonstrates the use of satellite imaging data to estimate relative pollution levels and source contributions in areas of the world where direct measurements are not available. Implications: The authors demonstrated how satellite data can be used to characterize exposures to dust and to anthropogenic pollution for future health related studies. This approach is of a great potential to investigate the associations between subject-specific exposures to different pollution sources and their health effects in inaccessible regions and areas where ground monitoring is unavailable.