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Synthesis of archaeological, astrophysical, geological and palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000 years shows the Sun, not CO2, controls global temperature and portends a sea-level rise of ~3 metres by 2100

Authors:
  • Geoclastica Ltd

Abstract

GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2020-1, based on 500-WORD ABSTRACT, SUBMITTED JANUARY 2020, FOR EUROPEAN GEOSCIENCES UNION (EGU) GENERAL ASSEMBLY, VIENNA, MAY 2020 (click 'Linked data'). This abstract had little chance of acceptance, given the EGU's close alignment with the CO2-denigrating United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) … https://www.egu.eu/news/438/egus-reaction-to-ipcc-report-on-global-warming-of-15oc/ MY ACCOMPANYING 10-SLIDE PRESENTATION, designed for scientists and non-scientists alike, is based on my 4 years (to date) of full-time UNPAID (therefore unbiased) literature research on ALL aspects of climate- and sea-level change (geology, geophysics, archaeology, glaciology, oceanography, meteorology, astrophysics, etc.), backed by >30 years as an INDEPENDENT (impartial) global geological consultant since my 1982-86 doctorate in geology (University of Oxford). These 10 slides take no more than 20-30 minutes to fully absorb. You will then understand why the trillions of dollars being wasted by our governments needlessly and ineffectually 'tackling' harmless CO2 should immediately be redirected to preparing for the imminent unstoppable SUN-DRIVEN metre-scale sea-level rise, i.e. planning for the migration of hundreds of millions of coast-dwelling 'sea-level refugees' in the coming decades, and for the relocation of society's entire coastal infrastructure (harbours, airports, nuclear power stations, factories, businesses, homes, etc.). ABSTRACT REJECTED 17-2-20, 17 days after the 31-1-20 official notification date. "Reason: The abstract is badly written and …there is a major mis-conception of the use of a local sea-level change ("Dunkirk II") as a global sea-level indicator." MY RESPONSE 18-2-18: "I wish to comment on your decision … on behalf of the European Geosciences Union (EGU), Europe's largest geology-geophysics society, to reject my attached abstract … I reject both of the reasons given, namely … Badly written? The abstract is DENSELY written, to include as much information as possible, given the EGU's restrictive 500-word limit and the EGU's abstract format which excludes paragraphs … This does not mean that the abstract is badly written; in fact the English is impeccable. Regardless, a badly written abstract is no justification for rejection: it's the science that counts … Major mis-conception (sic)? … On the contrary, my abstract clearly says that the widely and diversely documented c.350-450AD solar-driven global sea-level rise of 2 to 3 metres has various local names. Quoting my abstract: This rise … is Godwin's (1943) 'Romano-British transgression' (RBT), aka Dunkirk II (Low Countries, explaining ~410-450AD Frisian-Anglo-Saxon exodus to Britain), St Firmin (France), Gilbert V (Pacific) and Wulfert (USA). Thus it is your reviewer, rather than me, who is under a misconception. Please be aware that, prior to submission … my abstract was peer-reviewed by two professional geologists of more than 30-years experience each, one of them world-renowned for his studies of Holocene sea levels, and the other a well-known leading authority on plate tectonics … I put it to you that the (delayed) rejection of my abstract amounts to deliberate suppression of the politically incorrect view that the coming sea-level rise (a repetition of the c.350-450AD one) has nothing to do with CO2. This is anathema to the EGU, with its strong support for the IPCC … Moreover, by rejecting the abstract, the EGU is depriving its membership, and the scientific community at large, of the opportunity to judge for themselves the validity of my interpretations of an exhaustive literature review revealing sound multi-disciplinary evidence for an imminent sea-level crisis worse than the IPCC's worst-case scenario (which they incorrectly blame on CO2 instead of the recently ended solar Grand Maximum of 1937-2004)." EGU REPLY 20-2-20: "Your abstract … was not clear and it did not meet basic standards of scientific quality. Specific feedback regarding the science follows: The mis-conception of the author on sea-level change indicators is linked to the evident ignorance of the difference between local and global sea-level changes … The local data put forward by the author are indicative of relative sea-level change and should be corrected for local land mass altitudinal changes (land isostasy). … When put in a global context, this shows rates on the order of 10 cm, not several meters, at a global scale. … With best regards … Dr Susanne Buiter, EGU Programme Committee Chair GA2020." Does EGU REALLY think that someone with 45 years of global experience in sedimentary geology and BSc, MSc & DPhil degrees in sedimentology could possibly be 'ignorant' of the difference between relative- & absolute sea level? Another supreme irony: the EGU, a society for geologists (and other geoscientists), with about 20,000 members worldwide, strongly endorses the climate beliefs (sic) of IPCC, an organisation that ignores geologists … https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331974185_IPCC_next_assessment_report_AR6_due_2022_-_784_authors_but_again_no_geologists
Synthesis of archaeological, astrophysical, geological and palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000
years shows the Sun, not CO2, controls global temperature and portends a sea-level rise of ~3 metres by 2100
Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13-1-20 (amended 9-3-20)
Slide 1 of 10 = abstract submitted January 2020 for European Geosciences Union, General Assembly, May 2020, Vienna.
The abstract is modified here by adding 6 figures. Abstract rejection is very likely (decision date is 31st Jan 2020).
Only key citations are given; please email for others. A cross-match between graphs of the Sun’s output and
Earth's mean surface temperature is obvious at two scales (Figs 1, 2): (1) the last 2,000 years (2ky), represented by
proxies (PAGES2k 2017 temperatures; Vieira et al. 2011 cosmogenic isotopes), both graphs being 'hockey sticks'
with decadal 'sawteeth'; and (2) the last 250y (Berkeley temperature compilation; Chatzistergos et al. 2017
sunspot-group numbers). In both cases, temperature clearly lags the Sun’s output by 80-120y, aligning: (A) the
sawteeth; (B) the ~1820AD and ~1700AD temperature- and solar minima (Little Ice Age nadir); (C) ensuing
'modern warming' and solar buildup to the modern solar Grand Maximum (GM; 1937-2004), strongest in 2ky; and
(D) the next-strongest GM ~275-345AD and, tellingly, the ~400-450 warmest half-century (except post-1950?;
Pages2k fig7a,b,c). Undeniably the Sun drives global temperature (Svensmark solar-magnetic/cloudiness link?).
In turn, sea level (SL; post-1700 tide-gauges) closely cross-matches temperature, SL lagging ~20y (Figs 1, 2). Both
lags probably reflect ocean thermal inertia and 'conveyor-belt' circulation (downwelled solar-heated North
Atlantic water eventually upwells at Antarctica, affecting glacier flow rate into the ocean, hence SL).
A sharp SL rise of 2-3m in only ~100y ~350-450AD reached ~1.5m above today's SL (Figs 3, 4, 5). This rise,
sandwiched between SL falls of ~2m in ~200y, is Godwin's (1943) 'Romano-British transgression' (RBT), aka
Dunkirk II (Low Countries, explaining ~410-450AD Frisian-Anglo-Saxon exodus to Britain [Fig. 5]), St Firmin
(France), Gilbert V (Pacific) and Wulfert (USA). Fairbridge's updated (1976) Holocene SL compilation shows this
... continued
Synthesis of archaeological, astrophysical, geological and palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000
years shows the Sun, not CO2, controls global temperature and portends a sea-level rise of ~3 metres by 2100
Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13-1-20 (amended 9-3-20)
Slide 2 of 10 = abstract continued. Click ‘Linked data’ to see the submitted abstract in EGU format.
oscillation (and others, likewise correlatable to solar GMs), verified by many later geological and archaeological
studies. (Note also Blanchon et al. 2009 last-interglacial ~3m rise in <50y.) A glacio-eustatic origin, not glacio-
hydro-isostatic, is indicated by RBT's rapidity, great latitudinal span and associated global warming ~400AD
(above). I suggest upwelling 'GM-overwarmed' water unleashed a Marine Ice-Sheet- and/or Ice-Cliff Instability
event. Indeed, Antarctic seabed corrugations and cross-cutting iceberg ploughmarks suggest recent collapse of
Antarctica's ice-sheet snout (overhanging the grounding line) after the buttressing ice-shelf fragmented (Wise et
al. 2017 fig 4; "ice apocalypse" of Goodell 2017). If correct, the last such event made the grounding line recede
behind its present position and occurred <11ky ago (Graham et al. 2013). This timing accords with the ~350-450
RBT; moreover Antarctic sea-surface temperature increased ~4°C in <100y ~300AD (Shevenell et al. 2011 fig 3d).
CONCLUSIONS: (1) Modern warming coincides with rising CO2 (Fig. 2 bottom graph) accidentally; (2) warming
will continue until ~2090, lagging ~100y behind the modern solar GM's 1991 magnetic peak (cosmicrays.oulu.fi);
(3) the modern GM portends another rapid ~3m SL rise by ice collapse, starting by ~2040 and ending by ~2100
(NB currently increasing Antarctic ice-shelf bottom-water temperature, under-melting, grounding-line retreat and
glacier velocity; and accelerating world SL rise [Fig. 6]); (4) IPCC (2014) assertions supposedly incriminating
man's CO2 emissions but disproven here include: (A) the Sun is unimportant in climate change; (B) Holocene SL
was never higher than now; and (C) no SL oscillation of the previous 1700y exceeded 25cm ("medium confidence"
only) until the ongoing ~30cm rise since 1700 (in fact RBT was ~10x greater, and averaged ~30x faster).
Berkeley (University of California. Global land temperatures have increased by 1.5 degrees C over the past 250 years. http://
berkeleyearth.org/summary-of-findings/
Blanchon et al. 2009. Rapid sea-level rise and reef back-stepping at the close of the last interglacial highstand. Nature, 458, 881-885.
Chatzistergos et al. 2017. New reconstruction of the sunspot group numbers since 1739 using direct calibration and “backbone”
methods. Astronomy & Astrophysics, 602, article A69, 18p.
Goodell 2017. The Doomsday Glacier. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/the-doomsday-glacier-113792/
Graham et al. 2013. Seabed corrugations beneath an Antarctic ice shelf revealed by autonomous underwater vehicle survey: Origin
and implications for the history of Pine Island Glacier. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 118, 13561366.
Fairbridge 1976. Shellfish-eating Preceramic Indians in coastal Brazil. Science, 191, 353-359.
Godwin 1943. Coastal peat beds of the British Isles and North Sea. Journal of Ecology, 31, 199-247.
IPCC 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, 151 p.
PAGES2k Consortium 2017. A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era. Nature Scientific
Data, 4, 33p. https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201788
Shevenell et al. 2011. Holocene Southern Ocean surface temperature variability west of the Antarctic Peninsula. Nature, 470, 250-254.
Svensmark 2007. Cosmoclimatology: a new theory emerges. Astronomy & Geophysics, 48, 1.18-1.24. https://academic.oup.com/astrogeo/
article/48/1/1.18/220765
Vieira et al. 2011. Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene. Astronomy & Astrophysics, 531, article A6, 20p.
Wise et al. 2017. Evidence of marine ice-cliff instability in Pine Island Bay from iceberg-keel plough marks. Nature, 550, 506-518.
Synthesis of archaeological, astrophysical, geological and palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000
years shows the Sun, not CO2, controls global temperature and portends a sea-level rise of ~3 metres by 2100
Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13-1-20 (amended 9-3-20)
Slide 3 of 10 = References cited in abstract
1. Vieira et al. 2011. Solar output
from proxies. Red sector based on
Group Sunspot Number of Hoyt
& Schatten 1998.
3. Cronin et al. 2003. Chesapeake
Bay (USA) sea-surface temperature
(proxy). Not included in PAGES2k
2017 (above). Note Cronin’s
Medieval Warm Period (MWP) &
Little Ice Age (LIA) divisions.
Cronin pointed out: A) mean 20th C
temp. not warmer than MWP-I; B)
warmer 20th C extremes “may be
partially due to greater sampling
resolution”.
2. PAGES2k 2017. Global mean
surface temperature (proxies).
4. Fairbridge 1976. Eustatic
(i.e. global) SL, from geological
& archaeological shore
benchmarks around the world.
A longer time-interval of this
curve appears in Slides 6 & 7.
~425AD peak temp.
~450AD
300AD (v. approx.; C14)
~1700AD
Synthesis of archaeological, astrophysical, geological and palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000
years shows the Sun, not CO2, controls global temperature and portends a sea-level rise of ~3 metres by 2100
Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13-1-20 (amended 9-3-20)
Slide 4 of 10 = Figure 1, obvious correlation between solar output (Graph 1), global mean surface temperature (Graph 2),
local sea-surface temperature (Graph 3) & sea level (SL, Graph 4). Best visual solar/temperature correlation suggests a temperature
delay (lag) of ~100y (see next slide). Graph 4’s dating, based on radiocarbon, is far less certain (+/- 200y) than the others.
Red =
HadCRUT4
(thermo-
meters)
LIA I
1450-
1530
LIA II
1720-
1850
MWP-II
1000-1300
(‘conventional
MWP’)
TIME
Lag time
~100y
1AD Modern
solar
Grand
Maximum,
1937-2004
~310AD peak solar
Previous solar
Grand Maximum,
~275-345AD Solar ‘Grand Maximum’ threshold
~1850
2000AD
MWP-I
450-900AD
Lag 105y
Synthesis of archaeological, astrophysical, geological and palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000
years shows the Sun, not CO2, controls global temperature and portends a sea-level rise of ~3 metres by 2100
Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13-1-20 (amended 9-3-20)
Slide 5 of 10 = Figure 2, obvious visual correlation between solar output (Graphs 1-3), global mean land surface temperature
(Graph 4) & global sea level (SL; Graph 5). Temp. graph 4 is lagged 100y behind solar graphs 1-3; & SL 20y behind temp..
Also shown is atmospheric CO2 (Graph 6), which climbs overall like the others but lacks their up-down decadal ‘sawteeth’.
Lag varies ~100y +/- 20y with time
(change in ocean circulation speed?)
6. https://sealevel.info/co2.html
Atmospheric CO2 since 1800. Aligned on
same time scale as temp. (Graph 4 above).
5. Jevrejeva et al. 2008. Global sea level (SL; tide gauges).
1. Chatzistergos et al. 2017. Group sunspot number
(GSN; solar magnetic activity proxy) of various authors
using different calibration methods. Black curve is
Chatzistergos 2017 version, very similar to classical
GSN of Hoyt & Schatten 1998 (yellow curve). Red &
green curves (2016) claim to prove modern solar max.
(red box) is unexceptional (see my Tech. Note 2019-17).
TIME
The Sun’s modern
‘Grand Maximum’
(1937-2004), the
first in >1,000y
(previous slide)
2, 3. R.A. Rohde, Wiki. Solar magnetic activity proxies: blue = Be10 in Greenland ice core;
red = Group Sunspot Number (conventional, Hoyt & Schatten 1998, same as yellow curve in Graph 1)
4. Berkeley http://
berkeleyearth.org/summary-
of-findings/ Global land
surface temp. (thermometers)
mm
1900AD
1800AD
1900AD
1920AD
1900AD
SL graph 5 is offset 20y behind
Lag ~120y
Solar ‘Grand Maximum’ threshold
peak
trough
temp. graph 4
~1700AD
~1820AD
1800AD 2000AD
1837AD
1942AD
1883AD
1971AD
Lag 88y
3. Global geological &
archaeological shore
benchmarks; eustatic. See
enlargement, next slide.
Sea
level
5. Florida, shell middens;
subsidence negligible.
See enlargement, next slide.
6. Brazil N coast, geological
shore benchmarks (e.g. fixed
biological indicators);
subsidence negligible?
5. Walker et al. 1995
~350-450AD span of RBT, based on sum of global geo- & archaeological evidence
4. SE Africa, beachrock;
subsidence negligible?
(no published GPS?)
Synthesis of archaeological, astrophysical, geological and palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000
years shows the Sun, not CO2, controls global temperature and portends a sea-level rise of ~3 metres by 2100
Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13-1-20 (amended 9-3-20)
Slide 6 of 10 = Figure 3. Published Holocene sea-level (SL) curves from a selection of geological & archaeological
studies of stable localities worldwide, proving the global extent of Godwin’s (1943) Romano-British transgression
(RBT; red box), a ~2-3m rise in mean high-tide level, resulting in a higher-than-today highstand.
TIME
Present-day SL;
tilted in cases 1
& 2 due to
subsidence
(~1mm/y GIA),
negligible in 3-6.
6000BP 1000BP
=950AD
= Romano-
British transgression.
Variable box width
(age span) reflects
sampling gaps &
radiocarbon-age
uncertainty, usually
+/- 200 years. For
Curve 1 (1940, pre-
C14), dated by
pollen/varves &
archaeology, age
uncertainty is greater.
3. Fairbridge 1976
4. Ramsay 1995
6. Bezerra et al. 2003
5m
1. England E coast stratigraphy
(peat, clay). Godwin later (1943)
interpreted an additional
‘Romano-British transgression’
~200-400AD, “substantial”
(Godwin 1948, 1955), a SL rise
of ~1m (Godwin 1978 fig.33).
Contrast Cunliffe’s (1966)
proposed 10-20 feet in
SW England & S Wales.
(BP = years before
‘present’, i.e. 1950)
1. Godwin 1940
2. Greensmith & Tucker 1973
2. SE England, cheniers.
Synthesis of archaeological, astrophysical, geological and palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000
years shows the Sun, not CO2, controls global temperature and portends a sea-level rise of ~3 metres by 2100
Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13-1-20 (amended 9-3-20)
Slide 7 of 10 = Figure 4. Published Holocene sea-level (SL) curve from the Maldives (Mörner et al. 2007),
compared with Florida curve & global SL compilation (both shown in previous slide). Again, the ‘Romano-British
transgression’ (RBT; red boxes) was evidently a eustatic SL rise exceeding 1m, resulting in a higher-than-now
highstand. Age discrepancies are well within typical radiocarbon-age uncertainty (+/- 200y). Subsidence
negligible in all three cases & effectively nil during the ~100y duration of the RBT (~350-450AD).
Sea
level
Sea level today
TIME BP (years before ‘present’, i.e. 1950)
5000 BP 0 BP (1950AD)
1. Mörner et al. 2007. Maldives
atolls, C14-dated shells & peat.
Further support for the red-
arrowed sharp SL rise comes from
evidence (archaeological or
historical?) that a temple thriving
in AD 300-400 “seems to have
been abandoned ... about AD 500”.!
2.5m
~350-450AD span of RBT, based on sum of published global geological & archaeological evidence (see also my Tech. Note 2019-19)
No control point;
SL could have been lower
3. Fairbridge 1976. Global SL based on
C14-dated geological & archaeological
shore benchmarks worldwide.
2. Walker et al. 1995. Florida,
C14-dated shell middens
Same SL rise as bold red arrow, based on
earlier studies of beach-ridge geometry
Flow-eroded
notch !
Synthesis of archaeological, astrophysical, geological and palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000
years shows the Sun, not CO2, controls global temperature and portends a sea-level rise of ~3 metres by 2100
Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13-1-20 (amended 9-3-20)
Slide 8 of 10 = Figure 5. London archaeological evidence for Romano-British transgression (RBT) sea-level (SL)
rise & subsequent fall. Much other British archaeological evidence exists (e.g. see my Technical Note 2019-19).
Anglo-Saxons eventually did move into
Londinium, 9th Century, after SL fell
5th Century: ‘Anglo-Saxons’ (including Frisians, Jutes)
fled to Britain from their homelands on Low Countries
coastal plains to escape rising sea (Hawkes 1982) &
pressure from hostile barbarian rivals in the east?
Ayre & Wro e-Brown 2015
https://historyofenglishpodcast.com
Excavated still-erect ~300AD
Londinium estuary-facing wall
Londinium,
on Thames
estuary
Mystery: Why did
incoming Anglo-Saxons
establish Lundenwic
new town, instead of
settling in Londinium
(vacated by Romans
leaving Britain
~410AD), only 1km
downstream &
walled therefore safer
from native Britons?
Lundenwic 5th-8th-Century new town &
trading port, founded by Anglo-Saxons
Wall of Roman empty
Londinium, just 1km
downstream Steedman et al. 1992
Explanation: After the ~3m RBT SL rise, high tide reached
part-way up Londinium’s Roman defensive wall, preventing
boat-beaching (cf. Tatton-Brown 1986 p.22; Cracknell 2005 p.
97). Londinium was thus unsuitable as a trading port until SL
fell low enough, a century or more later. Among evidence for
SL being so high ...
Hill et al. 1980
2m
www.chr.org.uk
1
5
4
3
2
1 km
Thames
Estuary
Synthesis of archaeological, astrophysical, geological and palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000
years shows the Sun, not CO2, controls global temperature and portends a sea-level rise of ~3 metres by 2100
Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13-1-20 (amended 9-3-20)
Slide 9 of 10 = Figure 6. World sea level (SL) since 1880, from tide gauges & satellite radar (NASA)
My red lines show averaged multi-year rate of SL
rise is accelerating, in a step-wise manner.
Latest sharp increase was 2011 (due to Antarctic
glacier acceleration?; cf. “unexpected widespread
glacier acceleration in Wilkes Land, East
Antarctica” of up to 25%, some time between
2008 & 2015; Shen et al. 2018)
Tide gauges, 1880-2013
Satellite radar, 1993-2019
Synthesis of archaeological, astrophysical, geological and palaeoclimatological data covering the last 2,000
years shows the Sun, not CO2, controls global temperature and portends a sea-level rise of ~3 metres by 2100
Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1982-86), Geoclastica Ltd, UK, Technical Note 2020-1, 13-1-20 (amended 9-3-20)
Slide 10 of 10 = Conclusions (repeated from Slide 2)
CONCLUSIONS
Modern warming coincides with rising CO2 accidentally
Warming will continue until ~2090, lagging ~100y behind the modern solar GM's
1991 magnetic peak (cosmicrays.oulu.fi)
The modern GM portends another rapid ~3m SL rise by ice collapse, starting by
~2040 and ending by ~2100 (NB currently increasing Antarctic ice-shelf bottom-water
temperature, under-melting, grounding-line retreat and glacier velocity; and
accelerating world SL rise)
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014) assertions supposedly
incriminating man's CO2 emissions but disproven here include:
- the Sun is unimportant in climate change
- Holocene SL was never higher than now
- no SL oscillation of the previous 1700y exceeded 25cm ("medium confidence" only)
until the ongoing ~30cm rise since 1700 (in fact RBT was ~10x greater, and averaged
~30x faster).
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any citations for this publication.
Latest sharp increase was 2011 (due to Antarctic glacier acceleration?; cf
  • Shen
Latest sharp increase was 2011 (due to Antarctic glacier acceleration?; cf. "unexpected widespread glacier acceleration in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica" of up to 25%, some time between 2008 & 2015; Shen et al. 2018)