Article

Climate change scenarios and its effect on groundwater level in the Hiranyakeshi watershed

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Abstract

The availability of groundwater resources is depleting due to growth of population, urbanization, industrialization and climate change. With increasing concern on global climate change all over the world, there has been raising interest on water resource conservation. Similarly, Hukkeri (lies within Hiranyakeshi watershed) is one such town under Belagavi, Karnataka is facing severe groundwater problems from the past few years due to uneven rainfall, climate change and over exploitation of groundwater for irrigation activities. This study focused to measure and evaluate groundwater resources by modelling approach for the Hiranyakeshi watershed using Visual MODFLOW Flex software (Modular Finite Difference Groundwater Flow Model). The model calibration achieved by Parameter Estimation (PEST), and the model performance was checked by using coefficients R², RMSE and NRMSE. It is observed that the coefficients of R², RMSE and NRMSE obtained are 0.98, 1.68 and 3.41% respectively. The results from the model simulation gives increase in head of 1.8 m during 5years simulation period. The model was again simulated for the A1B climate change scenarios for the period 2021–2050 using Hadley Regional Model 3 (HadRM3) data for the Hiranyakeshi watershed to measure the effects of climate change on the groundwater recharge. Based on the long term output analysis, it is expected that there is an increase in the average annual temperature by 2.59 °C, precipitation by 81.50% and groundwater recharge by 24.91%.

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... Some studies show that the recharge and discharge of groundwater depends on precipitation, climatic variables, human impacts such as agricultural activities and construction of weirs for flow regulation (Allen et al. 2004;Woldeamlak et al. 2007;Taylor et al. 2013). Hence, predicting the recharge and discharge for future climatic change conditions is of great importance for integrated water management (Patil et al. 2020). Extensive research has been conducted in recent years to assess the effects of climate change on groundwater resources. ...
... Extensive research has been conducted in recent years to assess the effects of climate change on groundwater resources. Most of these studies are focused on the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge (Scibek et al. 2007;Goderniaux et al. 2009;Lee et al. 2019;Patil et al. 2020;Petpongpan et al. 2020;Azizi et al. 2021;Ouyang et al. 2021) or changes in groundwater levels ( Jeihouni et al. 2019;Patil et al. 2020;Shrestha et al. 2020). ...
... Extensive research has been conducted in recent years to assess the effects of climate change on groundwater resources. Most of these studies are focused on the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge (Scibek et al. 2007;Goderniaux et al. 2009;Lee et al. 2019;Patil et al. 2020;Petpongpan et al. 2020;Azizi et al. 2021;Ouyang et al. 2021) or changes in groundwater levels ( Jeihouni et al. 2019;Patil et al. 2020;Shrestha et al. 2020). ...
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Groundwater level forecasting is an essential priority for planning and managing groundwater resources. This study aims to investigate the effect of climate change on the monthly groundwater level in the Golpayegan aquifer in the future (2017–2032). After a spatio-temporal analysis, the Least Squares Support Vector Regression (LSSVR) model was used to simulate the monthly groundwater level in the historical period (2002–2017). The input data included precipitation, temperature, pan evaporation, soil moisture (from the ESA CCA SM product), and groundwater level in observation wells on a monthly time-scale. Future climatic data were downloaded from the CanEsm5 model of CMIP6 for the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios and then downscaled using the Change Factor Approach (CFA). The spatial analysis of groundwater levels indicated four different behaviors in the observation wells in the Golpayegan aquifer, resulting in four different clusters using the AGNES clustering method. Historical and future period modeling were performed separately for each of the four observation wells from each cluster. The modeling in the historical period demonstrated an average of NRMSE (0.09), MBE (0.030), and R2 (0.94) for the four clusters. The groundwater level in all clusters showed a decreasing trend in the future period, with SSP5-8.5 (average: 3.9 cm/month) showing a greater decrease than the SSP1-2.6 (average: 0.5 cm/month) scenario. The decline in groundwater level under SSP5-8.5 compared with SSP1-2.6 was more, respectively, 4.8, 5.8, 9.9 and 3.7 metres for clusters 1–4. The results indicate the acceptable efficiency and accuracy of the LSSVR model results in evaluating the effects of climate change on groundwater levels.
... MODFLOW is a physically-based, distributional, three-dimensional (3D) groundwater model that uses the finite difference method to solve the differential equation of groundwater flow, aiming to simulate and predict the complex groundwater flow system [28]. However, the limitations of the MODFLOW model are manifested in its dependent operations on the input of some specific conditions (such as recharge and evapotranspiration) [29,30]. MODFLOW usually presents these specific conditions in terms of parameters, the values of which are determined during the model calibration process. ...
... MODFLOW usually presents these specific conditions in terms of parameters, the values of which are determined during the model calibration process. These parameters are calibrated to match realistic conditions in order to improve the accuracy of the final groundwater simulation, which is very challenging [29,30]. ...
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Waterlogging refers to the damage to plants by water stress due to excess soil water in the crop’s root zone that exceeds the maximum water holding capacity of the field. It is one of the major disasters affecting agricultural production. This study aims to add a crop waterlogging identification module to the coupled SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tools)-MODFLOW (Modular Finite Difference Groundwater Flow Model) model and to accurately identify and predict crop waterlogging risk areas under the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6) climate scenarios. The result showed that: (1) The SWAT-MODFLOW model, which coupled with a crop waterlogging identification module, had good simulation results for LAI (Leaf Area Index), ET (Evapotranspiration), spring wheat yield, and groundwater level in the middle and lower reaches of the Bayin River; (2) The precipitation showed an overall increasing trend in the Bayin River watersheds over the next 80 years under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The temperature showed a clear increasing trend over the next 80 years under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios; (3) Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the mountain runoff from the upper reaches of the Bayin River was substantially higher than in other scenarios after 2041. The mountain runoff in the next 80 years will decrease substantially under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. The mountain runoff over the next 80 years showed an initial decrease and then an increasing trend under the SSP5-8.5 scenario; (4) During the historical period, the crop waterlogging risk area was 10.9 km2. In the next 80 years, the maximum crop waterlogging area will occur in 2055 under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. The minimum crop waterlogging area, 9.49 km2, occurred in 2042 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. The changes in the area at risk of crop waterlogging under each scenario are mainly influenced by the mountain runoff from the upper reaches of the Bayin River.
... With the sustainable situation of water shortage, there was a growing interest in brackish groundwater exploitation [7]. Patil et al. (2020) [8] measured the climate changes effects on groundwater recharge using Visual MODFLOW Flex software. Kahsay et al. (2018) [9] investigated the impacts of climate change items such as, evapotranspiration, temperature, and rainfall, on groundwater recharge. ...
... With the sustainable situation of water shortage, there was a growing interest in brackish groundwater exploitation [7]. Patil et al. (2020) [8] measured the climate changes effects on groundwater recharge using Visual MODFLOW Flex software. Kahsay et al. (2018) [9] investigated the impacts of climate change items such as, evapotranspiration, temperature, and rainfall, on groundwater recharge. ...
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Increase temperature globally would increase irrigation water requirements. Therefore, brackish groundwater can be used as non-conventional water resources in potential solar areas to supplement irrigation water shortage. Consequently, humidification dehumidification greenhouse agriculture used solar energy to desalinating groundwater. The objective of this research is to mitigate the impacts of climate change on water shortage in Qena, Upper Egypt to supplement water shortage. MODIS data were downloaded to get NDVI and Kc and estimate study area irrigation water requirements. Besides, the groundwater model was constructed using MODFLOW software to study the potentiality of groundwater aquifer for development considered the expected impacts of climate change due to temperature increase in the management scenarios. Also, estimate the required agricultural area to be switched to irrigation by solar desalinating from brackish groundwater in a greenhouse to compensate for water shortage. The results showed an increase in irrigation rate of about 6.78%. Based on the model results, the best management scenario is digging wells with 1.0(km) spacing lifting about 400(m³/day/well) to supply requited irrigation water. For this scenario, the maximum drawdown is about 49(m) after 50(years), which is safe. Results indicated approximately 17.68% of agricultural land could be irrigated using brackish groundwater by humidification dehumidification greenhouse.
... Groundwater resources play a crucial role in environmental sustainability, as these resources provide water to humans and ensure the continuity of economic and domestic purposes such as agriculture and industry (Holman et al., 2012;Patil et al., 2020). According to Giordano (2009), more than 650 km 3 of groundwater is exploited worldwide each year, with 1.5 to 3 billion people relying on groundwater for their drinking water supply. ...
... It could be attended using Visual Modflow which was initially developed by McDonald and Harbaugh (1984) of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in 1984 and further updated at several stages (Harbaugh & McDonald, 1996;Harbaugh et al., 2000;McDonald & Harbaugh, 1988). There is a wide application not only India (Alam & Umar, 2013;Gupta et al., 1997;Maheswaram et al., 2016;Mondal & Singh, 2005Mondal et al., 2009;Neupane et al., 2020;Patil et al., 2020;Pawar et al., 2022;Rejani et al., 2008;Sahoo & Jha, 2017), but also worldwide (Abd-Elaty et al., 2019;Alsharhan & Rizk, 2020;Lia et al., 2016;McKenzie et al., 2002;Shamsudduha et al., 2019;Weifang et al., 2010) for the simulation of groundwater flow and contaminant transport. Thus in this article, a regional groundwater flow model was developed in a part of MGP. ...
Chapter
In view of dwindling groundwater reserve and arsenic contamination in the shallow aquifers, indiscriminate pumping from the deeper aquifers is taking place at several parts of the Ganga river basin of Northern India. The severity of this uncontrolled pumping has disturbed the multi-layered aquifer hydrodynamics. The major concern is the inter-aquifer leakage through the intervening clay layers of varying thickness which has been deduced by dense geophysical measurements. The heavy pumping from the deeper aquifer (largely uncontaminated) and reduced thickness of the confining clay layer at places between the two aquifers offer a possible threat of leakage, and the arsenic-contaminated groundwater entering into the deeper aquifer, deteriorating the groundwater quality seriously. We present a groundwater flow model of a multi-layered aquifer system from a part of the Middle Ganga Plains (MGP). The simulation presented here is for understanding the hydrodynamics under stress conditions, and for assessing groundwater leakages. The model utilizes a previously 3-D aquifer geometry obtained from geophysical investigations and aquifer properties from in-situ measurements. The results reveal that the groundwater dynamics between two aquifers with increasing pumping from the deeper zone is leading to rapid depletion of the piezometric head, and possible mixing of arsenic-contaminated water to that from the shallow aquifer. This reversal in the inter-aquifer leakage has been simulated in both regional and micro-scales, and the areas vulnerable to the leakage reversal have been indicated as an indicator of arsenic hazard. These results provided safe pumping rates at a micro-scale for the marginal farmers and sites for the decision-makers to provide an alternate supply of water.
... Groundwater resources play a crucial role in environmental sustainability, as these resources provide water to humans and ensure the continuity of economic and domestic purposes such as agriculture and industry (Holman et al., 2012;Patil et al., 2020). According to Giordano (2009), more than 650 km 3 of groundwater is exploited worldwide each year, with 1.5 to 3 billion people relying on groundwater for their drinking water supply. ...
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Groundwater is a valuable and universally distributed resource on Earth. Understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of groundwater is of utmost importance for effective management. Normally, groundwater levels are recorded at arbitrary points, but groundwater modeling requires interpolating the measured values at specific grid nodes. The aim of this study was to identify and evaluate the geographical variations of groundwater levels in Türkiye using three geostatistical interpolation techniques. Data from 355 groundwater wells from 1970 to 2019 were used for this purpose. In addition, an investigation of changes in annual average temperature and precipitation was conducted for two different time periods: 1985–2000 and 2001–2016. The results show an increase in annual average temperature in Türkiye by 0.82 C during the reference period (1985–2000). Despite regional differences in the precipitation regime, the average annual precipitation in Türkiye has not changed significantly overall. Especially in the Meriç-Ergene, Konya Closed (Konya Kapalı), and Euphrates-Tigris basins, a significant decrease in groundwater levels was observed, even though this decrease is less than 100 m in some wells. After a comprehensive analysis of all these data, possible explanations for the changes in groundwater levels were considered.
... Furthermore, they also show that the affected area is more significant for a basin with dams than some freeflowing rivers. Recently, some methods have been developed to monitor the water level as a parameter of water resources, such as the Kriging method of spatio-temporal regression [8]; wavelets; the Artificial Neural Network [9]; the hydrogeological-hydrochemical model [10]; the Modular Finite Difference Model of groundwater flow [11]; a combination of remote sensing, water balance, and the physics-based hydrological model [12]; and empirical and water balance methods [13]. Meanwhile, one of unmet needs in managing water resources is the need for continuous, sustained, and periodic water level measurement data. ...
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This study investigates the dynamics of water resources in the Citarum watershed during periods of weak La Niña, normal, and weak El Niño conditions occurring sequentially. The Citarum watershed serves various purposes, being utilized not only by seven (7) districts and two (2) cities in West Java, Indonesia but also as a source of raw water for drinking in the City of Jakarta. Using a time-series analysis of surface water data, data-driven (machine learning) methods, and statistical analysis methods, spatiotemporal predictions of surface water have been made. The surface water time series data (2017–2021), obtained from in situ instruments, are used to assess water resources, predict groundwater recharge, and analyze seasonal patterns. The results indicate that surface water follows a seasonal pattern, particularly during the monsoon season, corresponding to the groundwater recharge pattern. In upstream areas, water resources exhibit an increasing trend during both weak La Nina and weak El Niño, except for Jatiluhur Dam, where a decline is observed in both seasons. Machine learning predictions suggest that water levels and groundwater recharge tend to decrease in both upstream and downstream areas.
... World population growth and climate change have given rise to an alarming decline in freshwater resources and their availability [1], thus posing a major challenge worldwide. The increase in industrialization, urbanization, and unlimited anthropogenic activities has led to the generation of wastewater originating from various manufacturing [2] and processing industries, such as petroleum hydrocarbons [3], textile, agriculture, dyeing, cosmetics, food, and pharmaceuticals [4]. ...
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In this study, TiO2 nanospheres (TiO2-NS) were synthesized by the solvothermal method. Firstly, the synthesized nanomaterial was characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier Transformed Infrared (FTIR), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and UV-Vis Diffuse Reflectance Spectroscopy (DRS). To study the photocatalytic degradation of Tartrazine (TTZ) and Naphthol Blue Black (NBB) in a binary mixture, the influence of some key parameters such as pH, pollutant concentration and catalyst dose was taken into account under visible and UV light. The results show a 100% degradation efficiency for TTZ after 150 min of UV irradiation and 57% under visible irradiation at 180 min. The kinetic study showed a good pseudo-first-order fit to the Langmuir–Hinshelwood model. Furthermore, in order to get closer to the real conditions of textile wastewater, the influence of the presence of salt on TiO2-NS’s photocatalytic performance was explored by employing NaCl as an inorganic ion. The optimum conditions provided by the Response Surface Methodology (RSM) were low concentrations of TTZ (2 ppm) and NBB (2.33 ppm) and negligible salt (NaCl) interference. The percentage of photodegradation was high at low pollutant and NaCl concentrations. However, this yield became very low as NaCl concentrations increased. The photocatalytic treatment leads to 31% and 53% of mineralization yield after 1 and 3 h of visible light irradiation. The synthesis of TiO2-NS provides new insights that will help to develop an efficient photocatalysts for the remediation of contaminated water.
... Although the uncertainty in prediction is still a major challenge, research results show deviated future trends in groundwater recharge, groundwater storage and groundwater levels in different climate regions. For instance, studies have reported a decrease in groundwater recharge and storage in humid tropical regions (Alam et al., 2019;Klaas et al., 2020;Patil et al., 2020) as well as semi-arid and arid tropical regions (Ghazavi and Ebrahimi, 2019;Goodarzi et al., 2016;Herrera-Pantoja and Hiscock, 2015). Predictions in temperate zones show more uncertainty, with the majority of studies concluding in a decrease in groundwater recharge and storage, but some research has also reported an increase of recharge and storage (Niraula et al., 2017;Ou et al., 2018;Rasmussen et al., 2023;Tillman et al., 2016). ...
... Shrestha et al. (2020) estimated the future groundwater levels decreasing in Kathmandu valley under climate scenarios. Patil et al. (2020) reported the decline trend in future groundwater level in the Hiranyakeshi watershed in Karnataka. Silwal et al. (2020) projected future groundwater level decline trends in the Kanki River basin of the eastern Nepal Himalaya under climate change scenarios. ...
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Groundwater is an important resource for a multitude of purposes, and change in groundwater levels is an important factor in determining the increase and decrease of groundwater quantity in aquifers. This study has been carried out for Gomti River basin, where groundwater is the major drinking water source for the entire region. This paper evaluates the behavior of the groundwater levels using Visual MODFLOW under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. For modeling of groundwater flow, the entire study area was discretized into 108480 (X-direction) and 207090 (Y-direction) gridal network with each cell size of 1000 m × 1000 m. The model was calibrated for the period 2002 to 2008 and validated for the period 2009 to 2013 using data of 24 observation wells. During the calibration period of Visual MODFLOW, residual mean ranged between 0.658 and 0.268 m, and absolute residual mean ranged between 2.035 and 2.174 m. The calibrated Visual MODFLOW model was employed to evaluate the influence of climate change on future groundwater levels. Future groundwater recharge (2020–2030), obtained after the application of four (MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MIROC MIROC5, and MOHC-HADGEM2-ES) global climate model (GCM) data into prior SWAT model, was applied to Visual MODFLOW. After applying, the projected future (2020–2030) trend in the groundwater levels was found continuously decreasing due to low groundwater recharge and excessive groundwater withdrawal in the basin in future.
... The impacts of climate change on groundwater availability in different parts of the globe were analyzed using several hydrological and groundwater models (Alam et al., 2019;Alattar et al., 2020;Ouhamdouch et al., 2019;Persaud et al., 2020;Shrestha et al., 2020;Yifru et al., 2021). For Indian river basins, hydrological and numerical models were used to assess the climate change effects on groundwater recharge (Kaur et al., 2021;Kayet et al., 2019;Kumar et al., 2022;Patil et al., 2020;Roy et al., 2022;Sadhwani et al., 2023). However, there is a lack of integrated assessments evaluating the collective influence of land cover and climate change on groundwater resiliency in Indian basins. ...
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Chitravathi basin in India is facing significant challenges as its groundwater resources are facing the impact of land cover and climate change. This study explores the impact of land cover and climate change on groundwater levels and groundwater recharge in the basin using CMIP6 GCMs climate projections data. Taylor Skill Score (TSS) and Rating Metric (RM) were used to rank the GCMs. The top four ranked GCMs, i.e., MPI-ESM1-2-LR, EC-Earth3, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and INM-CM5-0 were found to produce the most accurate projections under scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Cellular Automata-Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) was used to develop future LULC maps. SWAT model was applied for estimating the future groundwater recharge and was calibrated and validated for discharge data, giving the values of R² = 0.84 and 0.82 and NSE = 0.81 and 0.80 during calibration and validation, respectively. A steady-state groundwater flow model, MODFLOW, was employed to estimate future groundwater levels. Based on the projected groundwater recharge and levels, a resiliency map of the basin was developed. The results indicated that by 2060, under SSP2-4.5 scenario, groundwater levels in the basin would decrease by 54 m, while under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the decrease would be 62 m. The groundwater resiliency for both SSPs would be poor in 2060. This research will help design and implement adaptation measures to mitigate the impacts of land cover and climate change on Chitravathi basin’s groundwater resources. These findings will help to protect and preserve the basin’s groundwater supplies.
... Groundwater resources play a crucial role in environmental sustainability, as these resources provide water to humans and ensure the continuity of economic and domestic purposes such as agriculture and industry (Holman et al., 2012;Patil et al., 2020). According to Giordano (2009), more than 650 km 3 of groundwater is exploited worldwide each year, with 1.5 to 3 billion people relying on groundwater for their drinking water supply. ...
Chapter
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"Bilindiği üzere iklim değişikliği temelde sanayi devrimi sonrasındaki endüstrileşme ve buna bağlı olarak karbon kaynaklı enerji kaynaklarının sınırsızca tüketilmesine dayanan ve etkilerini daha çok son yarım yüzyılda atmosferik olaylar ile hissedebildiğimiz bir olgu haline dönüşmüştür. Yağış rejimlerinin değişimi ve sıcaklık artışı sonucunda daha şiddetli ve daha çok tekrarlanan taşkın ve kuraklıklarla mücadele ediyor olmamız bu durumun en önemli göstergelerindendir. Bu durumdan başta su kaynakları olmak üzere enerji, hava, turizm, yerel yönetimler, şehir ve bölge planlama, mimarlık, tarım, orman, deniz, ulaştırma, spor ve ekonomi sektörleri doğrudan etkilenmişlerdir. Türkiye'nin, 2021 yılında Paris Anlaşması'nı imzalayarak, 2053 yılına kadar karbon emisyonlarında net sıfır taahhüdü vermesine paralel olarak günümüzde yapılacak araştırma ve projelerde esas alınması gereken temel unsur, yeşil kalkınma politikası doğrultusunda, iklim değişikliği ile mücadele ve uyuma yönelik planlanan eylemlere uygun çalışmaların yürütülmesidir. Bu bağlamda, 23- 24 Eylül, 2022 tarihinde TÜBA tarafından İTÜ ev sahipliğinde düzenlenen “İklim Değişikliği Çerçevesinde Su Kaynaklarinin Mevcut Durumu Ve Geleceği Çalıştayi” nın akademi ve kurumları bir araya getirerek sorunların en güncel hali ile ele aldığı, uyum ve mücadele için önerilerin gündeme getirilip tartışıldığı bir ortamın sonucu olarak bu kitap hazırlanmıştır."
... Furthermore, climate change has led to reducing the quality of groundwater (Akbari et al. 2020). Many scientific researchers have investigated the impact of meteorological parameters on the quality and quantity of groundwater (Abdullahi et al. 2015;Abdullahi and Garba 2015;Hsieh et al. 2015;Cai and Ofterdinger 2016;Kotchoni et al. 2018;Rahman et al. 2018, Mohan et al. 2018Rajendiran et al. 2019;Nemaxwi et al. 2019;Patil et al. 2020;Dey et al. 2020;Akbari et al. 2020;Iqbal et al. 2020;Ali et al. 2020a, b;Lasagna et al. 2020). For instance, Lasagna et al. (2020) analyzed the variation of hydro-geochemical of groundwater in two locations under different climate conditions. ...
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The main aim of the present study was to select a better model for predicting the groundwater salinity in the Gaza Strip, Palestine for the first time. The purpose of this work was to identify the important parameters that affect the prediction of groundwater salinity in the selected region using various empirical models. In this study, groundwater salinity is expressed in terms of chloride concentration. Accordingly, 255 MLPNN (Multi-layer perceptron neural network) models were developed to find the most important parameters influencing the prediction of chloride concentration. The parameters include recharge rate (RR), abstraction average rate (AVR), groundwater level (GWL), distance from sea shoreline (DSSL), rainfall (R), the difference between the maximum and minimum temperature (DT), and relative humidity (RH) in addition to initial chloride concentration (ICC). The results indicated that MLPNN#166 with the combination of [ICC RR AVR GWL DT] and MLPNN#1 with the combination of [ICC R] have shown a high prediction accuracy based on the value of statistical measures. Second, out of 255 MLPNN models, the best 17 MLPNN models were selected and their performance was compared with Radial Basis Neural Networks (RBFNN), Quadratic model (QM), and multiple linear regression (MLR) models using various statistical measures. The results showed that the QM model with the combination of [ICC RR AVR GWL R RH DT] performed better than MLPNN, RBFNN, and MLR. Finally, two ensemble techniques were utilized to increase the prediction capabilities of MLPNN and RBFNN models when compared with single prediction models. To achieve this, 20 scenarios are proposed to identify the best hybrid model. The results showed that MLPNN-QM, MLPNN-QM-MLR, and MLPNN-RBFNN-QM-MLR were considered to be the best prediction model. Among of 24 developed approaches, the results reported that the QM model is the most superior model for predicting the groundwater chloride concentration.
... Groundwater systems are complex in nature entailing a range of constituents, like surface water, geological media containing water (such as aquifers), flow boundaries, water recharge factors, sinks leading to water withdrawals, heterogeneous distribution of subsurface materials, and transient groundwater fluxes (Chang et al. 2017). To this effect, groundwater systems' analysis generally requires sophisticated mathematical tools/models to analyse the underpinning dynamics (Mayer et al. 1998;Patil et al. 2020). Simulation models can help assess the impact of different controls on groundwater recharge (Li et al. 2017;Tubau et al. 2017), provided that the associated models realistically account for all the involved processes. ...
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Groundwater sustainability is one of the most critical issues to the State of Punjab, India. In this research, a numerical groundwater flow model (MODFLOW) was employed to simulate flow and groundwater levels in the Sirhind Canal Tract of Punjab between 1998 and 2030. Historical groundwater patterns were calibrated using reported groundwater data from 1998 to 2013 for aquifer parameters viz. hydraulic conductivity and specific yield. Thereafter, calibrated flow simulated model was validated for the years 2013–2018. Twelve possible strategies, including three irrigation conditions and four pumping scenarios, were postulated to evaluate the performance of groundwater resources through to 2030. During the study, it was found that if current groundwater abstraction continues there will be further steep decline of 21.49 m in groundwater level by 2030. Findings also suggest that canal water supplies will be beneficial to reverse groundwater level decline and help to increase the water level by 11% above that in year 2018. The projected increases in water level will reduce energy demand leading to reduced CO2 emissions of approximately 966.6 thousand tonnes by 2030.
... Accordingly, information on 12 observation wells (piezometers), 11,220 pumping wells, hydrodynamic properties of the aquifer, flow boundaries, bedrock of the aquifer, and topography of the area were used to develop the conceptual model of the Talesh aquifer. The model is calibrated using the parameter estimation technique (PEST) and the internal module of MOD-FLOW (Patil et al. 2020;Kaur et al. 2021). In other words, the MODFLOW model uses the numerical solution of the groundwater flow equation for mathematical simulations of porous medium based on Eq. 4: ...
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This study compared the capability of GMS and SVR models for groundwater modeling and evaluated the impact of climate change on future aquifer quantity in Talesh Plain. Groundwater level modeling was performed using GMS and SVR models for the period 2005–2018 (base period). Also, the effects of climate change on temperature and precipitation in the study area were estimated based on the HadGEM2-ES GCM model considering RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios in 2020–2034 (future period). A correlation of greater than 0.70 was found between the observed and estimated groundwater levels in both models. Moreover, in the base period, the average decline in groundwater level was 0.86 m. SVR model exhibited that the average groundwater level will drop by 0.94, 0.98, and 1.04 m in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, respectively. While in the GMS modeling, under the same emission scenarios, these values were 0.91, 0.95, and 1.06 m, respectively. Moreover, the current trend of groundwater withdrawal may significantly increase the groundwater deficit and aquifer imbalance. It is therefore essential to apply artificial intelligence and mathematical models to accurately predict groundwater level fluctuations in this region to optimize groundwater management. Overall, our results revealed that SVR and GMS models perform almost similarly in simulating groundwater levels in the study area, suggesting that artificial intelligence can serve as a fast decision-making tool in groundwater management in similar aquifers.
... As scientific interest regarding the influences of climate change on groundwater systems has significantly increased over the last decade, it has been confirmed that both changes (i.e., decrease and increase in recharge) can have widespread consequences on subsurface conditions and groundwater systems. Several investigations have been completed to clarify possible future groundwater level changes [16,17], modification of groundwater recharge and storage [18,19], groundwater quality changes [20], alteration in subsurface temperature conditions [21], and in surface water-groundwater interaction [22,23]. However, the majority of the prior studies focus mainly on the hydrological aspects of climate change and the groundwater systems, while studies which deal with possible spatial and temporal changes in groundwater flow pattern and flow dynamics, i.e., in the fragmentation and hierarchy of nested flow systems, are still under-represented. ...
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Our recent knowledge about the role of different fluid driving forces in the response of groundwater flow systems to climate change is still limited. This current study aimed to evaluate possible spatial and temporal changes in complex, gravity- and overpressure-driven groundwater flow systems induced by climate change and look for general trends and characteristics of the flow field using 2D transient groundwater flow simulations. Results showed significant large-scale changes in the transient subsurface flow field and flow dynamics due to recharge reduction. Local gravity-driven flow systems are the most vulnerable to atmospheric processes, while overpressured regimes are expected to be independent of direct climatic variability. By the involvement of different degrees of overpressure, it was revealed that, as the degree of overpressure increases, the penetration depth of the topography-driven local flow systems decreases. The higher the overpressure, the lower the climate change-induced groundwater level decrease over time, suggesting the buffering effect of overpressure as a fluid driving force in the flow systems’ response to the changes in hydrologic parameters. The main novelty of the study is the involvement of different fluid driving forces in the evaluation with the combination of a regional scale investigation, which is unique in the context of climate change effects on groundwater systems.
... In particular, the poor gradation and high surface evaporation commonly lead to the extensive capillary rising (Hird and Bolton 2017). Moreover, due to the impacts of climate change, a considerable increase in groundwater recharge is anticipated in some districts around the globe in the next 40-50 years (Jyrkama and Sykes 2007;Patil et al. 2020). Such fact will contribute to a higher potential of capillary rising action in engineered soil structures such as recompacted soil and chemically stabilized soils. ...
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The capillary rising is one of the most common phenomena in fine-grained soils. However, research is limited for capillary actions in cementitiously treated engineered soils. In this study, a soil column test was performed for the free capillary rising in compacted loess and modified loess samples. Moisture content of compacted soil samples was measured and analyzed to determine capillary height and rising rate. Results indicated that there was a considerable capillary rising in loess and lime-modified loess, while the capillary rising in cement-treated loess was significantly restrained. Current models are not appropriate for the rate and height predictions of capillary rising in cementitiously treated loess, especially in early ages. Therefore, a logarithmic form correlation was suggested and validated. In addition, salt migration effect and microscopic properties of soils after capillary rising were evaluated. Overall, the paper presented an experimental study and prediction on the capillary rising behavior of treated and recompacted engineered loess.
... Results give a quantitative degradation of the groundwater by the year 2050 with an alarming marine intrusion in "Djbeniana" region. Patil et al. (2020) measured and evaluated groundwater resources by modeling approach for the Hiranyakeshi watershed using Visual MODFLOW Flex software. Simulation results show head increase of 1.8 m during the 5-year simulation period. ...
Article
This paper constitutes an assessment of the climate change (CC) impacts on the Zeuss–Koutine (ZK) aquifer in southeastern Tunisia using a WEAP-MODFLOW decision support system (DSS). Efficiency criteria are calculated for hydraulic heads to validate the MODFLOW model. The DSS simulates the behavior of the aquifer while representing demands and other water sources. It is able to evaluate monthly water management scenarios up to 2030. It emphasizes the seriousness of the water resource situation in the region exhausted by the increasing demands and the climate circumstances which leads to the risk of salinization. The DSS shows a calculated aquifer drawdown during the simulation period (1982–2010) of 22.0 m which is exactly the recorded one. To simulate future CC, data are collected from the “Climate Wizard” web site, providing results of 16 general circulation climate models under A2, A1B, and B1 emission scenarios. Based on precipitation changes, three scenarios are deduced: the mean, the worst, and the best CC. Results show that the forecasted average drawdown (2010–2030) would be between 30.5 (1.5 m/year) and 33.9 m (1.7 m/year) under the best and the worst CC scenarios, respectively. The worst CC scenario could lead to the intrusion of brackish lagoon water or even a long-term marine intrusion. The use of the Jerba Sea Water Desalinization Plant (JSWDP), in 2018, would improve the situation, and the average estimated drawdown would be 16.9 m (0.8 m/year) under the mean CC, presenting then an improvement of about 49%. The ZK aquifer would lose 121% of its storage under the coupled JSWDP_mean CC scenario, between 1982 and 2030, presenting an improvement of about 52% compared to CC scenarios.
... In those regions, groundwater has been increasingly exploited and utilized to meet urgent need for the sustainability of society (Ragab and Prudhomme, 2002;Xia and Zhang, 2008;Pang et al., 2020;Cigna and Tapete, 2021). In addition to human activities, groundwater systems also respond to and record external, long-term natural factors such as regional to global climate changes (Walling and Fang, 2003;Ye et al., 2003;Christensen et al., 2004;Liu and Xia, 2004;Choi et al., 2005;Conway, 2005;Magilligan and Nislow, 2008;Amanambu et al., 2020;Patil et al., 2020). Understanding the property of groundwater resources, and their recharge and transport processes could contribute to science-based management and sustainable development of water resources on regional to global scales (Kinzelbach et al., 2003;Wheater et al., 2010). ...
Article
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Groundwater plays a dominant role in the eco-environmental protection of arid and semi-arid regions. Understanding the sources and mechanisms of groundwater recharge, the interactions between groundwater and surface water and the hydrogeochemical evolution and transport processes of groundwater in the Longdong Loess Basin, Northwest China, is of importance for water resources management in this ecologically sensitive area. In this study, 71 groundwater samples (mainly distributed at the Dongzhi Tableland and along the Malian River) and 8 surface water samples from the Malian River were collected, and analysis of the aquifer system and hydrological conditions, together with hydrogeochemical and isotopic techniques were used to investigate groundwater sources, residence time and their associated recharge processes. Results show that the middle and lower reaches of the Malian River receive water mainly from groundwater discharge on both sides of valley, while the source of the Malian River mainly comes from local precipitation. Groundwater of the Dongzhi Tableland is of a HCO3-Ca-Na type with low salinity. The reverse hydrogeochemical simulation suggests that the dissolution of carbonate minerals and cation exchange between Ca2+, Mg2+ and Na+ are the main water-rock interactions in the groundwater system of the Dongzhi Tableland. The δ18O (from −11.70‰ to −8.52‰) and δ2H (from −86.15‰ to −65.75‰) values of groundwater are lower than the annual weighted average value of precipitation but closer to summer-autumn precipitation and soil water in the unsaturated zone, suggesting that possible recharge comes from the summer-autumn monsoonal heavy precipitation in the recent past (≤220 a). The corrected 14C ages of groundwater range from 3,000 to 25,000 a old, indicating that groundwater was mainly from precipitation during the humid and cold Late Pleistocene and Holocene periods. Groundwater flows deeper from the groundwater table and from the center to the east, south and west of the Dongzhi Tableland with estimated migration rate of 1.29–1.43 m/a. The oldest groundwater in the Quaternary Loess Aquifer in the Dongzhi Tableland is approximately 32,000 a old with poor renewability. Based on the δ18O temperature indicator of groundwater, we speculate that temperature of the Last Glacial Maximum in the Longdong Loess Basin was 2.4°C–6.0°C colder than the present. The results could provide us the valuable information on groundwater recharge and evolution under thick loess layer, which would be significative for the scientific water resources management in semi-arid regions.
... Global warming and increasing the earth's atmosphere temperature have raised the evaporation process. Furthermore, in some regions far from the water bodies, the soil humidity and dried out plants caused some changes in runoff characteristics, groundwater level, and water cycle (Khosravi et al., 2015;Patil et al., 2020). Following the aforementioned destructive effect, an assessment of the variation and fluctuation of temperature is necessary. ...
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This paper tries to introduce a time-series of temperature parameters as a potential method for studying the global warming. So, we investigated the spatial–temporal variations of warm-season temperature parameters (WSTP), including start time, end time, length of season, base value, peak time, peak value, amplitude, large integrated value, right drive, and left drive, using a database of 30 years’ period in different climates of Iran. We used daily temperature data from 1989 to 2018 over Iran to extract the parameters by TIMESAT software. We studied the trend analysis of WSTP through the Mann–Kendall method. Then, we considered the Pearson correlation coefficient to calculate the correlation between WSTP and time. We assessed the trends of the slope using a simple linear regression method. Then, we compared the results of the WSTP trend analysis in climatic zones. Our results accused the hyper-arid climatic zone has the longest warm season (194.89 days a year). The warm season in this region starts earlier than other regions and increases with moderate speed (left drive, 0.19 °C day−1). Then, it reaches a peak value (31.3 °C) earlier than the different climatic zones. On the other hand, the humid regions’ warm season starts with the shortest length and ends later than the other climatic zones (112.1 and 297.5 days a year for start and end times, respectively). We detected that the trend of the start time parameter has decreased by 98.02% of the study area during the last 30 years. The base value, length, and large integrated value parameters have an increasing trend of 66.47%, 80.11%, and 92.95% in Iran. The highest correlation coefficient with time was for start time and large integrated value parameters. Hence, the start time and large integrated value parameters have almost the most negative (< − 0.5) and positive (> 5) trend slope, among other parameters, respectively. In general, these results demonstrate that the studied region has faced global warming impacts over time by increasing the warm season and thermal energy, especially in arid and hyper-arid. We highlight the necessity of planning the land use under the high natural vulnerability of the studied local, especially in this new age of global warming.
... Ghazavi and Ebrahimi (2018) predicted future groundwater recharge and groundwater level conditions for an arid environment of Ilam Province, West Iran. Shrestha et al. (2020) (Kambale et al., 2017;Sishodia et al., 2017;Patil et al., 2020). Considering the case of Punjab with 82 % of its geographical area under agriculture, has emerged as the principal food grain supplier in India with the use of high yielding crop varieties, fertilizers and enormous use of groundwater for agriculture (Aggarwal et al., 2005;Khosa et al., 2012). ...
Article
Changing global climate predicts a warmer future which may alter the hydrological cycle, surface water as well as groundwater resource. Groundwater plays an ineradicable role in supplying its water needs to the arid and semi-arid parts of Punjab, region susceptible to the issue of diminishing groundwater resources and the effects of climate change. Thus, a study was performed to simulate the outcomes of the climate change on groundwater levels in Sirhind Canal Tract of Punjab using MODFLOWfor two future time spans, i.e. mid-century (MC) (2020–2050) and end century (EC) (2065–2095) based on CSRIO-Mk 6-CM model, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 climate scenarios. Two pumping conditions were considered-Condition A assumes that the number of tube wells till EC, would remain same as that of 2018 and Condition B considers that the number of tube wells are expected to increase till 2050, in accordance to the augmenting trend of years 2013–14 to 2017–18. The mean temperature of the tract is predicted to increaseby1.9 °C in MC and 3.6 °C in EC in RCP 4.5, and by 1.6 °C in MC and 3.5 °C in EC in RCP 6.0. The rainfall is also predicted to increase by 17.7 % and 18.2 % under RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0. The projected change in climate is expected to have positive influence of groundwater recharge with an average increase by 30 % in Condition A and 174 % in Condition B by EC. A fall in water table fall by 5.7 m and 4.3 m by EC under RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0, respectively for pumping Condition A is predicted, whereas higher fall of 45 m and 57.5 m by EC under RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0, was predicted for Condition B.
... The rapid economic development in the past years increased the water demand for domestic, industrial and agricultural uses in the region, and since groundwater is a main source of water to population, sometimes the sole source, the study of the region's aquifer systems is of extreme importance. It is, therefore, necessary to understand properly the behavior of these aquifers in different possible climatic scenarios, in order to better control and manage the water resources, guaranteeing the water supply for future generations (Lauffenburguer et al., 2018;Hund et al., 2018;Pulido-Velazquez et al., 2018;Patil et al., 2020;Amanambu et al., 2020;Nygran et al., 2020;Zhou et al., 2020). ...
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Climate change can affect directly the hydrological cycle and influence groundwater availability due to the direct or indirect impact on recharge and discharge processes. The present investigation focuses on groundwater recharge processes in a fluvial-deltaic aquifer in the northern part of the Rio de Janeiro state (Brazil), a region that relies on groundwater resources and where meteorological data indicate a shift from tropical humid climatic conditions to semiarid. The main objective is to understand how groundwater resources respond to the consequences of climate change on groundwater recharge, in order to improve groundwater management practices and guarantee quantitative and qualitative good status. Climate models’ data and projections were used as a tool to provide a better understanding of how climate change can modify the dynamics in the studied groundwater system. The present climate indices for extreme temperature and precipitation (1961–1990) were examined in order to establish the current climatology for the study area, and the Thornthwaite−Mather hydrometeorological balance (TMHB) was used to calculate inputs to the aquifer. Projections for annual rainfall and air temperature for the period 2041–2070 obtained from Eta5km_HadGEM2-ES outputs for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used to estimate recharge to the aquifer using the hydrological code Visual Balan v2.0. Results revealed a tendency to air temperature increase and decrease in precipitation rate for the period of study. Consequently, there was a reduction of recharge in both IPCC scenarios used for the estimation, indicating a decrease in the groundwater resources stored in the region. These results place new challenges to guarantee sustainable groundwater management and the achievement of new aquifer system equilibrium to adapt to climate change impacts.
... Furthermore, scientific researchers worldwide have studied the effect of climate parameters such as rainfall under various conditions on the groundwater level, groundwater availability, and physic-chemical properties of groundwater (Nazarenko 2006;Jan et al. 2007;Hong and Wan 2010;Abdullahi and Garba 2015;Hsieh et al. 2015;Tashie et al. 2016;Cai and Ofterdinger 2016;Kotchoni et al. 2018;Rahman et al. 2018;Mohan et al. 2018;Li et al. 2019;Rajendiran et al. 2019;Nemaxwi et al. 2019;Patil et al. 2020;Dey et al. 2020;Akbari et al. 2020). For instance, Hsieh et al. (2015) studied the variation characteristics of the groundwater level using an analytical solution generated by linearizing the one-dimensional non-linear Boussinesq equation. ...
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Assessment of groundwater quality at a specific location is an important step to provide adequate information about water management and sustainable development. Several variables affect groundwater salinity, expressed by chloride concentration, prediction; therefore, identification of the most significant parameters for accurate prediction is an important research area. In the present study, artificial neural network (ANN) models with various combinations of input parameters were developed to determine the most significant parameters that influence chloride concentration prediction. To achieve this, the variables affecting chloride concentration (recharge rate (RR), abstraction (A), abstraction average rate (AVR), lifetime (LT), groundwater level (GWL), aquifer thickness (AT), depth from the surface to well screen (DSWS), distance from sea shoreline (DSSL)) and climate parameters (total rainfall (R), relative humidity (RH), minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax), average temperature (Tavg), average wind speed (W), minimum wind speed (Wmin), and maximum wind speed (Wmax)), in addition to initial chloride concentration (ICC), were considered as input variables. The output variable was the final chloride concentration (FCC). 17 ANN models were developed by varying the identified input parameters. Additionally, the coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to select the best predictive model. The results demonstrate that the ANN 5 model with the combinations of [ICC, RR, A, AVR, LT, GWL, DSWS, AT, DSSL, W] produced excellent estimation in predicting the value of final chloride concentration with reported values of 0.977 and 0.022 for R2 and RMSE respectively. The proposed approach illustrates how the ANN modeling technique can be used to identify the key variables required for the most significant parameters affecting chloride concentration.
... Climate change is a global issue, involving the long term complex interactions between environmental factors and economic, social, technological and political conditions which cause significant effects at regional level (Alpert et al., 2008;Misra 2014), including the Maghreb (Northwest Africa) region that includes the study area (Almazroui et al., 2020;Bahir et al. 2016Bahir et al. , 2020aEl Kharraz et al., 2012;Nagraj et al., 2020;Ouhamdouch et al. 2018Ouhamdouch et al. , 2020Ragab and Prudhomme 2002). ...
Article
This study aims to assess the effect of climate change on water resources in semi-arid environments, taking the Essaouira region in Morocco as an example. Analysis of climate data shows a decrease in precipitation of 12–16% and an increase in air temperature of 2.3 °C over the past three decades. A continuous drop in the piezometric level of more than 12 m for the Cenomanian-Turonian aquifer, 17 m for the Plio-Quaternary aquifer, around 8 m for the Barremian-Aptian aquifer and 5 m for the Hauterivian. Hydrogeochemical analysis together show that (i) the groundwater mineralization is controlled by the dissolution of evaporitic and carbonates minerals, by the reverse ions exchange phenomenon, and by sea water intrusion, especially at Plio-Quaternary aquifer; and (ii) the groundwater quality in the study area deteriorates gradually over time and space. The isotopic data shows that (i) the groundwater recharge in the study area is ensured by precipitation of oceanic origin without significant evaporation and that (ii) climate change has no remarkable effect on the isotopic content of the groundwater of the study area. However, the results of this article reflect that the Essaouira basin is very vulnerable to climate change.
... Numerous software packages are used to simulate the movement of groundwater in the soil and aquifers, including Groundwater Modelling System (GMS) [88][89][90][91]; Visual MODFLOW Flex [92][93][94][95]; and ModelMuse [96][97][98][99]. Most of these packages require inputting the seepage velocity as the boundary or initial conditions to conduct the simulation. ...
Article
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Seepage velocity is a very important criterion in infrastructure construction. The planning of numerous large infrastructure projects requires the mapping of seepage velocity at a large scale. To date, however, no reliable approach exists to determine seepage velocity at such a scale. This paper presents a tool within ArcMap/Geographic Information System (GIS) software that can be used to map the seepage velocity at a large scale. The resultant maps include both direction and magnitude mapping of the seepage velocity. To verify the GIS tool, this study considered two types of aquifer conditions in two regions in Iraq: silty clayey (Babylon province) and sandy (Dibdibba in Karbala province). The results indicate that, for Babylon province, the groundwater flows from the northwest to southeast with a seepage velocity no more than 0.19 m/d; for the Dibdibba region, the groundwater flows from the west to the east with a seepage velocity not exceeding 0.27 m/d. The effectiveness of the presented tool in depicting the seepage velocity was thus demonstrated. The accuracy of the resultant maps depends on the resolution of the four essential maps (groundwater elevation head, effective porosity, saturated thickness, and transmissivity) and locations of wells that are used to collect the data.
... A GIS inundation model was developed to predict the inundated areas of the Nile Delta as a result of the SLR of 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 m (Haggag et al., 2013). Patil et al. (2020) measured the climate changes effects on groundwater recharge using Visual MODFLOW Flex software. Wassef and Schüttrumpf (2016) used GIS and groundwater finite element numerical model "FeFlow" to simulate the groundwater salinity concentrations in the coastal aquifer west of the Nile Delta, Egypt. ...
Article
Egypt is one of the most water-scarce countries of the Middle East and North Africa region and is highly vulnerable to climatic changes. In the Egyptian deserts, new land reclamation projects depend mainly on groundwater as the main source of water. Also, solar energy is the most promising renewable source of energy for pumping and transport of water. Moghra region is one of the well-known “1.5 Million Acres Reclamation Projects” areas in the Western Desert. In this paper, a groundwater model was constructed and used to investigate the sustainable groundwater management scenarios in Moghra region taking into consideration impacts of the expected climate changes. Using MODFLOW/GMS software, Moghra model was prepared and calibrated based on the region's topographic, climatic, geologic and hydrologeolgic conditions. The model was used to explore the impacts of climate changes; Sea Level Rise (SLR) by 1.0 m and temperature increase by 2 °C and 4 °C on the management scenarios. In addition, the required power for water management after 5, 10, 50 and 100 years were determined. It was concluded that the best management scenario is to use 1000 wells to extract 1.2 Mm³/d of water for serving a total area of 85,714 acres (360 km²). This scenario satisfies the project criteria that permits a maximum drawdown less than 1 m/year. It was also concluded that SLR has mild effects on groundwater levels due to the vast aquifer dimensions. Additionally, the increase in evapotranspiration due to temperature increase will lead to a significant increase in the consumptive use. The power needed to extract water will continuously increase due to the expected increase in drawdown. The required area for Photovoltaic (PV) solar plant was determined and its value increased by 6% and 12% due to temperature increase of 2 °C and 4 °C, respectively.
Chapter
Groundwater resources are essential to the environment’s sustainability because they supply water to humans and are important in maintaining a country’s socio-economic development. Concerns about groundwater depletion and ecosystem degradation have introduced the concept of sustainable use of groundwater. In this perspective, Türkiye is currently experiencing water stress and is likely to be among the countries that may experience water scarcity in the future. Nearly, 67% of the annual amount of water consumed in Türkiye, the world's seventh largest agricultural producer, is used for agricultural irrigation. Approximately 32% of the agricultural irrigation need is satisfied from groundwater resources. Water withdrawal from unlicensed wells is one of the most critical problems affecting Türkiye’s groundwater resources. It is estimated that there are over 100 thousand unlicensed wells in the country, more than 60 thousand of which are located in the Konya Closed Basin. In addition, the sustainable management of groundwater consumption becomes more difficult due to climate change, rapid population growth and urbanization, pollution of water resources, over-exploitation, and sea-water intrusion. This chapter summarizes the challenges faced in the sustainable management of groundwater resources in Türkiye.
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Groundwater (GW) plays a key role in water supply in basins. As global warming and climate change affect groundwater level (GWL), it is important to predict it for planning and managing water resources. This study investigates the GWL of the Yazd-Ardakan Plain basin in Iran for the base period of 1979–2005 and predicts for periods of 2020–2059 and 2060–2099. Lagged temperature and rainfall are used as inputs to hybrid and standalone artificial neural network (ANN) models. In this study, the rat swarm algorithm (RSA), particle swarm optimisation (PSO), salp swarm algorithm (SSA), and genetic algorithm (GA) are used to adjust ANN models. The outcomes of these models are then entered into an inclusive multiple model (IMM) as an ensemble model. In this study, the output of climate models is also inserted into the IMM model to improve the estimation accuracy of temperature, rainfall, and GWL. The monthly average temperature for the base period is 12.9 °C, while average temperatures for 2020–2059 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are 14.5 and 15.1 °C, and for 2060–2099 they are 16.41 and 18.5 °C under the same scenarios, respectively. In future periods, rainfall is low in comparison with the base period. Lagged rainfall and temperature of the base period are inserted into ANN-RSA, ANN-SSA, ANN-PSO, ANN-GA, and ANN models to predict GWL for the base period. Outputs of IMM, ANN, and the five hybrid models (ANN-RSA, ANN-SSA, ANN-PSO, and ANN-GA) indicate that root mean square errors (RMSE) are 2.12, 3.2, 4.58, 6.12, 6.98, and 7.89 m, respectively, in the testing level. It is found that GWL depletion in 2020–2059 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are 0.60–0.88 m and 0.80–1.16 m, and in 2060–2099 under the same scenarios they are 1.49–1.97 m and 1.75–1.98 m, respectively. The results highlight the need to prevent overexploitation of GW in the Ardakan-Yazd Plain to avoid water shortages in the future. HIGHLIGHTS Introducing a new ensemble model for integrating outputs of general circulation models.; Introducing a new ensemble model for predicting GWL.; Introducing a new feature selection method for choosing the best inputs.;
Conference Paper
Groundwater has been a very potential resource to humanity for ages, but human activities have led to the degradation of this resource. One of the major activities is letting the untreated sewage into freshwater storage tanks or river without proper treatment. Due to this activity, the freshwater is also getting contaminated by mixing wastewater and making the whole water unable to use. This mixing in the unlined storage tanks leads to the possibility of sewage infiltration into the ground, which causes deterioration of groundwater quality. This problem was identified in Kovilpatti, Tamil Nadu, India and an attempt was undertaken to access the quality and suitability of groundwater. Twenty-two groundwater samples have been collected and tested for various physicochemical parameters. The result shows that the TDS concentration has been on the upward, which causes groundwater quality deterioration. Hence, proper management is required to minimize the transport of contaminants. A proper treatment facility must be constructed at the earliest to treat sewage generated in the Kovilpatti municipality.
Chapter
The construction of power plant with the capacity of 1000 MW in the coastal area of Cilacap, Central Java, Indonesia, started from October 2017 until 2019. The construction is started by excavating the area at least 8 m of depth to build the foundation and underground cooling tunnel. During the dry season in 2018, community who live around the construction site reported groundwater level depletion in their wells. The power plant authority argued that groundwater extraction for shrimp ponds along the beach is also responsible for the groundwater level depletion in the region. This study aims to determine whether groundwater level declining in this area caused by natural conditions or due to construction activities. Field observations were carried out both in the rainy and dry seasons in 2019. It consisted of groundwater level measurement, resistivity measurement, and inventorying the utilization of groundwater. Groundwater modelling used to simulate the impact of groundwater extraction and construction of the power plant towards the groundwater flow around the construction site. The results suggested that seasonal difference within a year affects to the declining of groundwater level of 1.06 m by average at the community’s wells and the whole research area, while the dewatering practices by the power plant authority around the construction site of foundation and underground cooling tunnel were responsible to the declining of groundwater level of 1–2 m limited 500–700 m from the construction site.
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Based on the monitoring data of groundwater level, mining data and meteorological data from 1986 to 2015 in Cangzhou City, the change characteristics of depth of groundwater level were studied. On this basis, the nonparametric statistical test method (Mann–Kendall method) was used to study the trend of depth of groundwater level. Besides In addition, the principal component analysis method and grey correlation method were used to study groundwater influence factors. Finally, the multivariable time series model was used to predict the depth of groundwater level. The results showed that in the past 30 years, influenced by human activities and meteorological changes, the groundwater flow field in 1986–2015 was generally move from southwest to northeast, the depth of groundwater level was increasing from the initial 3.26 to 4.06 m, with an annual increase rate of 0.027 m/a; the contribution rate of exploitation factor, precipitation factor, evaporation factor were 40, 20 and 40%; the fitting figure of the observed values and the predicted values were very good, with an average relative error of 7.73%. According to the prediction schemes, when the evaporation increases by 5%, and the agricultural exploitation decreases by 5%, the depth of groundwater will reach 3.39 m; when the evaporation increases by 10%, and the agricultural exploitation decreases by 10%, the depth of groundwater will reach 3.32 m. This study had important reference significance for regional groundwater treatment and rational utilization. HIGHLIGHTS The variation law of groundwater level in Cangzhou is discussed.; The influencing factors of groundwater level are discussed.; This study had important reference significance for regional groundwater treatment and rational utilization.;
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The widespread uncertainty regarding future changes in climate, socioeconomic conditions, and population growth have increased interest in water-energy-food-ecology nexus-based frameworks in relation to the analysis of water resources. A challenge for modeling the water-energy-food-ecology nexus is how to reduce the multidimensional and codependent uncertainties and measure the complicated casual relationships effectively. We propose a methodological solution to the problem, and this solution is demonstrated in this case as an extension to the previous water resource optimization framework. We coupled the water-energy-food-ecology nexus into the Bayesian network, which provides a formal representation of the joint probabilistic behavior of the system, and the method was applied to water resource use analysis and management in the Syr Darya River basin, a transboundary and endorheic basin that has contributed to the Aral Sea ecological crisis as a result of unreasonable water use. The annual scale data of four periods, 1970-1980, 1980-1991, 1991-2005, and 2005-2015, were introduced into the Bayesian network. Before the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the amount of water inflow into the Aral Sea was sensitive to increases in irrigation for agricultural development, increases in water storage of the upstream reservoirs and stochastic runoff. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the amount of water inflow into the Aral Sea was sensitive to the inefficient irrigation water use in the downstream areas of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and the water storage of the reservoir located upstream of Kyrgyzstan. The change resulted from unresolvable disputes between water use for power generation in the upstream area and irrigation in the downstream area. Comprehensive scenario analysis shows that, in the short term, it would be useful to improve the proportion of food crops, improve the efficiency of water use in relation to salt leaching and irrigation, and prevent drought damage. In the long term, based on the increased use of advanced drip irrigation technology from 50% to 80%, the annual inflow into the Aral Sea will increase significantly, reaching 6.4 km3 and 9.6 km3, respectively, and this technology is capable of ameliorating the ecological crisis within the basin.
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In the present study, an attempt is made to simulate the current groundwater level in the Ghataprabha sub-basin (Krishna basin) in southern India. For this purpose, a single layered aquifer was conceptualized using Visual MODFLOW Flex ver.14.2. Model calibration was carried out using Parameter Estimation (PEST), with R², RMSE and NRMSE as model evaluation criteria. Model behaved well with the value of 0.99, 6 m and 2.13% for R², RMSE and NRMSE respectively. Groundwater modelling results showed that there is an increase of 1.46 m of groundwater level in 5 years. Incorporating the increasing trend of groundwater level in planning water resource projects would be fruitful.
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During the recent decade, with the growing recognition of the possibility of climate change and clear evidence of observed changes in climate during 20 th century, an increasing emphasis on food security and its regional impacts has come to forefront of the scientific community. In recent times, the crop simulation models have been used extensively to study the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security. The output provided by the simulation models can be used to make appropriate crop management decisions and to provide farmers and others with alternative options for their farming system. It is expected that in the coming decades with the increased use of computers, the use of simulation models by farmers and professionals as well as policy and decision makers will increase. In India, substantial work has been done in last decade aimed at understanding the nature and magnitude of change in yield of different crops due to projected climate change. This paper presents an overview of the state of the knowledge of possible effect of the climate variability and change on food grain production in India.
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This paper presents an approach to model the expected impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in a reservoir command area. A statistical downscaling model and an evapotranspiration model are used with a general circulation model (GCM) output to predict the anticipated change in the monthly irrigation water requirement of a crop. Specifically, we quantify the likely changes in irrigation water demands at a location in the command area, as a response to the projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration at that location. Statistical downscaling with a canonical correlation analysis is carried out to develop the future scenarios of meteorological variables (rainfall, relative humidity (RH), wind speed (U2), radiation, maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures) starting with simulations provided by a GCM for a specified emission scenario. The medium resolution Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate GCM is used with the A1B scenario, to assess the likely changes in irrigation demands for paddy, sugarcane, permanent garden and semidry crops over the command area of Bhadra reservoir, India.
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As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.
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Climate change poses uncertainties to the supply and management of water resources. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that the global mean surface temperature has increased 0.6 ± 0.2 o C since 1861, and predicts an increase of 2 to 4 o C over the next 100 years. Temperature increases also affect the hydrologic cycle by directly increasing evaporation of available surface water and vegetation transpiration. Consequently, these changes can influence precipitation amounts, timings and intensity rates, and indirectly impact the flux and storage of water in surface and subsurface reservoirs (i.e., lakes, soil moisture, groundwater). In addition, there may be other associated impacts, such as sea water intrusion, water quality deterioration, potable water shortage, etc. While climate change affects surface water resources directly through changes in the major long-term climate variables such as air temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration, the relationship between the changing climate variables and groundwater is more complicated and poorly understood. The greater variability in rainfall could mean more frequent and prolonged periods of high or low groundwater levels, and saline intrusion in coastal aquifers due to sea level rise and resource reduction. Groundwater resources are related to climate change through the direct interaction with surface water resources, such as lakes and rivers, and indirectly through the recharge process. The direct effect of climate change on groundwater resources depends upon the change in the volume and distribution of groundwater recharge. Therefore, quantifying the impact of climate change on groundwater resources requires not only reliable forecasting of changes in the major climatic variables, but also accurate estimation of groundwater recharge. A number of Global Climate Models (GCM) are available for understanding climate and projecting climate change. There is a need to downscale GCM on a basin scale and couple them with relevant hydrological models considering all components of the hydrological cycle. Output of these coupled models such as quantification of the groundwater recharge will help in taking appropriate adaptation strategies due to the impact of climate change. This article presents the likely impact of climate change on groundwater resources, climate change scenario for groundwater in India, status of research studies carried out at national and international level, and methodology to assess the impact of climate change on groundwater resources.
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This paper presents a methodology to downscale monthly precipitation to river basin scale in Indian context for special report of emission scenarios (SRES) using Support Vector Machine (SVM). In the methodology presented, probable predictor variables are extracted from (1) the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data set for the period 1971–2000 and (2) the simulations from the third generation Canadian general circulation model (CGCM3) for SRES emission scenarios A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT for the period 1971–2100. These variables include both the thermodynamic and dynamic parameters and those which have a physically meaningful relationship with the precipitation. The NCEP variables which are realistically simulated by CGCM3 are chosen as potential predictors for seasonal stratification. The seasonal stratification involves identification of (1) the past wet and dry seasons through classification of the NCEP data on potential predictors into two clusters by the use of K-means clustering algorithm and (2) the future wet and dry seasons through classification of the CGCM3 data on potential predictors into two clusters by the use of nearest neighbour rule. Subsequently, a separate downscaling model is developed for each season to capture the relationship between the predictor variables and the predictand. For downscaling precipitation, the predictand is chosen as monthly Thiessen weighted precipitation for the river basin, whereas potential predictors are chosen as the NCEP variables which are correlated to the precipitation and are also realistically simulated by CGCM3. Implementation of the methodology presented is demonstrated by application to Malaprabha reservoir catchment in India which is considered to be a climatically sensitive region. The CGCM3 simulations are run through the calibrated and validated SVM downscaling model to obtain future projections of predictand for each of the four emission scenarios considered. The results show that the precipitation is projected to increase in future for almost all the scenarios considered. The projected increase in precipitation is high for A2 scenario, whereas it is least for COMMIT scenario. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society
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The effects of climate change on the groundwater systems in the Grote-Nete catchment, Belgium, covering an area of 525 km(2), is modeled using wet (greenhouse), cold or NATCC (North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Change) and dry climate scenarios. Low, central and high estimates of temperature changes are adopted for wet scenarios. Seasonal and annual water balance components including groundwater recharge are simulated using the WetSpass model, while mean annual groundwater elevations and discharge are simulated with a steady-state MODFLOW groundwater model. WetSpass results for the wet scenarios show that wet winters and drier summers are expected relative to the present situation. MODFLOW results for wet high scenario show groundwater levels increase by as much as 79 cm, which could affect the distribution and species richness of meadows. Results obtained for cold scenarios depict drier winters and wetter summers relative to the present. The dry scenarios predict dry conditions for the whole year. There is no recharge during the summer, which is mainly attributed to high evapotranspiration rates by forests and low precipitation. Average annual groundwater levels drop by 0.5 m, with maximum of 3.1 m on the eastern part of the Campine Plateau. This could endanger aquatic ecosystem, shrubs, and crop production.
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The responses of two small, regional-scale aquifers to predicted climate change are compared. The aquifers are unconfined, heterogeneous, highly permeable, and representative of glaciofluvial environments in southern British Columbia, Canada and Washington State, USA. In one case, river–aquifer interactions dominate the hydraulic response. The climate change data set is that predicted by Canadian Global Climate Model 1 (CGCM1), for consecutive 30-yr intervals from present to 2069. Downscaling of GCM predictions and stochastic weather generation were done for each geographic location separately. Both studies employed identical methodologies and software for downscaling global climate model data, modelling weather for input to recharge models, determining the spatio-temporal distribution of recharge, and modelling groundwater flow using MODFLOW. Results suggest observable, but small, changes in groundwater levels, forced by changes in recharge. At the site in which river–aquifer interactions occur, water levels within the floodplain respond significantly and more directly to shifts in the river hydrograph under scenarios of climate change.
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This study describes historical observations and future estimates of the discharge regime of the river Meuse, with reference to climate change. It specially deals with low flows and integrates results obtained from analyses of observed records and simulations performed with hydrological models.
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In this paper, downscaling models are developed using a support vector machine (SVM) for obtaining projections of monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures (T-max and T-min) to river-basin scale. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated through application to downscale the predictands for the catchment of the Malaprabha reservoir in India, which is considered to be a climatically sensitive region. The probable predictor variables are extracted from (1) the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for the period 1978-2000, and (2) the simulations from the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) for emission scenarios A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT for the period 1978-2100. The predictor variables are classified into three groups, namely A, B and C. Large-scale atmospheric variables Such as air temperature, zonal and meridional wind velocities at 925 nib which are often used for downscaling temperature are considered as predictors in Group A. Surface flux variables such as latent heat (LH), sensible heat, shortwave radiation and longwave radiation fluxes, which control temperature of the Earth's surface are tried as plausible predictors in Group B. Group C comprises of all the predictor variables in both the Groups A and B. The scatter plots and cross-correlations are used for verifying the reliability of the simulation of the predictor variables by the CGCM3 and to Study the predictor-predictand relationships. The impact of trend in predictor variables on downscaled temperature was studied. The predictor, air temperature at 925 mb showed an increasing trend, while the rest of the predictors showed no trend. The performance of the SVM models that are developed, one for each combination of predictor group, predictand, calibration period and location-based stratification (land, land and ocean) of climate variables, was evaluated. In general, the models which use predictor variables pertaining to land surface improved the performance of SVM models for downscaling T-max and T-min
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Humans have strongly impacted the global water cycle, not only water flows but also water storage. We have performed a first global-scale analysis of the impact of water withdrawals on water storage variations, using the global water resources and use model WaterGAP. This required estimation of fractions of total water withdrawals from groundwater, considering five water use sectors. According to our assessment, the source of 35% of the water withdrawn worldwide (4300 km3/year during 1998–2002) is groundwater. Groundwater contributes 42%, 36% and 27% of water used for irrigation, households and manufacturing, respectively, while we assume that only surface water is used for livestock and for cooling of thermal power plants. Consumptive water use was 1400 km3/year during 1998–2002. It is the sum of the net abstraction of 250 km3/year of groundwater (taking into account evapotranspiration and return flows of withdrawn surface water and groundwater) and the net abstraction of 1150 km3/year of surface water. Computed net abstractions indicate, for the first time at the global scale, where and when human water withdrawals decrease or increase groundwater or surface water storage. In regions with extensive surface water irrigation, such as Southern China, net abstractions from groundwater are negative, i.e. groundwater is recharged by irrigation. The opposite is true for areas dominated by groundwater irrigation, such as in the High Plains aquifer of the central USA, where net abstraction of surface water is negative because return flow of withdrawn groundwater recharges the surface water compartments. In intensively irrigated areas, the amplitude of seasonal total water storage variations is generally increased due to human water use; however, in some areas, it is decreased. For the High Plains aquifer and the whole Mississippi basin, modeled groundwater and total water storage variations were compared with estimates of groundwater storage variations based on groundwater table observations, and with estimates of total water storage variations from the GRACE satellites mission. Due to the difficulty in estimating area-averaged seasonal groundwater storage variations from point observations of groundwater levels, it is uncertain whether WaterGAP underestimates actual variations or not. We conclude that WaterGAP possibly overestimates water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer where impact of human water use on water storage is readily discernible based on WaterGAP calculations and groundwater observations. No final conclusion can be drawn regarding the possibility of monitoring water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer using GRACE. For the less intensively irrigated Mississippi basin, observed and modeled seasonal groundwater storage reveals a discernible impact of water withdrawals in the basin, but this is not the case for total water storage such that water withdrawals at the scale of the whole Mississippi basin cannot be monitored by GRACE.
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Global climate change is recognized as a threat to species survival and the health of natural systems. Scientists worldwide are looking at the ecological and hydrological impacts resulting from climate change. Climate change will make future efforts to restore and manage wetlands more complex. Wetland systems are vulnerable to changes in quantity and quality of their water supply, and it is expected that climate change will have a pronounced effect on wetlands through alterations in hydrological regimes with great global variability. Wetland habitat responses to climate change and the implications for restoration will be realized differently on a regional and mega-watershed level, making it important to recognize that specific restoration and management plans will require examination by habitat. Floodplains, mangroves, seagrasses, saltmarshes, arctic wetlands, peatlands, freshwater marshes and forests are very diverse habitats, with different stressors and hence different management and restoration techniques are needed. The Sundarban (Bangladesh and India), Mekong river delta (Vietnam), and southern Ontario (Canada) are examples of major wetland complexes where the effects of climate change are evolving in different ways. Thus, successful long term restoration and management of these systems will hinge on how we choose to respond to the effects of climate change. How will we choose priorities for restoration and research? Will enough water be available to rehabilitate currently damaged, water-starved wetland ecosystems? This is a policy paper originally produced at the request of the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands and incorporates opinion, interpretation and scientific-based arguments.
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The Grand Forks aquifer, located in south-central British Columbia, Canada was used as a case study area for modeling the sensitivity of an aquifer to changes in recharge and river stage consistent with projected climate-change scenarios for the region. Results suggest that variations in recharge to the aquifer under the different climate-change scenarios, modeled under steady-state conditions, have a much smaller impact on the groundwater system than changes in river-stage elevation of the Kettle and Granby Rivers, which flow through the valley. All simulations showed relatively small changes in the overall configuration of the water table and general direction of groundwater flow. High-recharge and low-recharge simulations resulted in approximately a +0.05 m increase and a -0.025 m decrease, respectively, in water-table elevations throughout the aquifer. Simulated changes in river-stage elevation, to reflect higher-than-peak-flow levels (by 20 and 50%), resulted in average changes in the water-table elevation of 2.72 and 3.45 m, respectively. Simulated changes in river-stage elevation, to reflect lower-than-baseflow levels (by 20 and 50%), resulted in average changes in the water-table elevation of -0.48 and -2.10 m, respectively. Current observed water-table elevations in the valley are consistent with an average river-stage elevation (between current baseflow and peak-flow stages).
Article
The relationship between groundwater recharge and discharge is one of the most important aspects in the protection of ecologically valuable areas. Knowledge of groundwater systems is therefore a pre-requisite for up-to-date integrated land and water management. A methodology is presented for assessing the relative importance of different recharge–discharge systems, with respect to ecological status or development, including mapping of regional groundwater systems, and recharge and discharge areas. This methodology is applied to a land-use planning project in the Grote-Nete basin, Belgium. Discharge regions are delineated on the basis of their spatial discharge contiguity, position in the landscape and alkalinity of the plants habitat. The simulated discharge areas are verified by field mapping of phreatophytic vegetation. Particle tracking is used to delineate the recharge area associated with each discharge area, and to characterize each recharge–discharge groundwater system. Three groundwater flow and two vegetation parameters are used in a cluster analysis to obtain four different clusters of groundwater discharge systems. It is shown that the discharge clusters are significantly different in discharge intensity and alkalinity. The effects on the groundwater system due to anthropogenic impacts on the land-use are studied by simulation of the present, pre-development, and future situation. The results indicate the sensitivity and impact of the changes on the recharge and discharge areas, and groundwater discharge fluxes. The impact of the changes for the different areas for both the pre-development and the future situation appears to differ from large decrease to large increase in total groundwater discharge. Of additional ecological importance is the fact that some areas show an opposite behaviour regarding the changes in groundwater discharge area and fluxes. The delicate shifts in the groundwater systems, which cause the changes in the recharge and discharge, clearly show the need for hydrological modelling. The synergy of hydrological modelling and vegetation mapping proves advantageous and reveals some of the ecological differences in the catchment.
A Manual of Instructional Problems for the USGS MODFLOW Model. US Department of Commerce, National Technical Information Service
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