Conference PaperPDF Available

Quantity of plastic waste input into the ocean from China based on a material flow analysis model

January 2020
Anthropocene Coasts 3(1):1-5

DOI:10.1139/anc-2018-0028

License
CC BY 4.0

Conference: Marine Microplastic Pollution and Control (ISMP 2018)

Authors:

Mengyu Bai

East China Normal University

Daoji Li

East China Normal University

Marine plastic waste has been an important global environmental issue in recent years, and quantifying the amount of global marine plastic waste input is vital for control and mitigation. However, determining an accurate quantity of oceanic plastics is challenging because comprehensive monitoring data are difficult to obtain on national and global scales. To understand the contribution of China in global marine plastic waste input, we used a material flow analysis (MFA) method, which is included in lifecycle assessment and combines statistical data from China’s official statistics, reports, and NPO (nonprofit organization) to establish an MFA model. The model assesses the lifecycle of plastics, which starts with primary plastic, passes the stage of plastic product, and eventually becomes plastic waste. With the MFA model, the annual amount of plastic waste entering the ocean from China from 2011 to 2020 can be calculated. In 2011, 0.65 million tonnes of plastic waste entered the ocean from China, and the quantity rose slowly until 2016. A rapid decline appeared in 2018 because of China’s governmental managements and the quantity will continue to decrease until 2020. Our results indicate the amount of oceanic plastics has a strong correlation with government control measures.

A simplified schematic model of plastic waste entering the ocean from China.

…

Annual amount of plastic waste entering the ocean from 2011 to 2020 in China.

…

Figures - available via license: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Content may be subject to copyright.

Available via license: CC BY 4.0

Content may be subject to copyright.

NOTE

Quantity of plastic waste input into the ocean

from China based on a material flow analysis

model

Mengyu Bai and Daoji Li

Abstract: Marine plastic waste has been an important global environmental issue in recent

years, and quantifying the amount of global marine plastic waste input is vital for control

and mitigation. However, determining an accurate quantity of oceanic plastics is challeng-

ing because comprehensive monitoring data are difficult to obtain on national and global

scales. To understand the contribution of China in global marine plastic waste input, we

used a material flow analysis (MFA) method, which is included in lifecycle assessment and

combines statistical data from China’s official statistics, reports, and NPO (nonprofit organi-

zation) to establish an MFA model. The model assesses the lifecycle of plastics, which starts

with primary plastic, passes the stage of plastic product, and eventually becomes plastic

waste. With the MFA model, the annual amount of plastic waste entering the ocean from

China from 2011 to 2020 can be calculated. In 2011, 0.65 million tonnes of plastic waste

entered the ocean from China, and the quantity rose slowly until 2016. A rapid decline

appeared in 2018 because of China’s governmental managements and the quantity will con-

tinue to decrease until 2020. Our results indicate the amount of oceanic plastics has a strong

correlation with government control measures.

Key words: marine plastic waste, material flow analysis, prediction, China, LCA.

1. Introduction

Since the 1960s, plastics have become one of the most commonly used artificial materi-

als and a source of major environmental pollution (Smith 2014;Galloway and Lewis 2016)

as a result of their inherent properties and poor management. Plastic debris is found in

oceans, lakes, harbors, and polar regions, and it can harm a variety of organisms

(Donohue et al. 2001;Derraik 2002;Barnes et al. 2009;Free et al. 2014). Most marine plastic

waste includes disposable straws, lunchboxes, plastic bottles, and other food packaging.

According to a regional survey in Thailand, the top four marine plastic wastes are plastic

bags, plastic bottle caps, plastic ropes, and plastic straws. Similar plastic waste categories

are found in China. Plastic garbage can enter the ocean by direct littering near rivers

(Lebreton et al. 2017) or beaches, followed by tidal or wind transport (Kershaw and

Received 23 December 2018. Accepted 29 October 2019.

M. Bai and D. Li.* State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241,

China; Plastic Marine Debris Research Center, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China.

Corresponding author: Daoji Li (email: daojili@sklec.ecnu.edu.cn).

This paper is part of a Collection entitled “Marine Microplastic Pollution and Control (ISMP 2018)”.

*Daoji Li currently serves as a Guest Editor; peer review and editorial decisions regarding this manuscript were handled by

Ian Townend.

4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium,

provided the original author(s) and source are credited.

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Rochman 2015), and even during the transport of products or after traffic accidents (Barnes

et al. 2009). After entering the oceans, plastic waste will eventually float in the sea or sink

into the deep seabed (Thompson et al. 2004;Van Cauwenberghe et al. 2013;Law

et al. 2014). So far, plastic waste has been found in more than 100 species of organisms

including marine life such as whales, dolphins, fish, invertebrates, and birds (Allsopp

et al. 2006). Quantitative research on the sources and fates of marine plastic debris plays

an important guiding role in mitigating and minimizing the effects of this pollution on

the environment.

Eriksen et al. (2014) calculated the quantity of macroplastics with a modelling approach,

and concluded that the annual plastic debris input into the North Pacific is 9.64 ×10

(9.64 ×10

kg), while the input into the South Pacific is 2.1 ×10

t (2.1 ×10

kg). Lebreton

et al. (2017) estimated that 1.15–2.41 ×10

t of plastic waste enters the ocean every year

through riverine input. Schmidt et al. (2017) calculated that the global plastic debris input

into the ocean is between 0.41 and 4 ×10

t per year from rivers. Jambeck et al. (2015) esti-

mated that in 2010, 4.8–12.7 ×10

t of plastic waste has entered oceans from coastal areas

globally.

As the world’s largest plastic producer and consumer (PlasticsEurope 2017), it is neces-

sary to determine China’s contribution to the input of marine plastic waste. We used a

model to calculate and predict the amount of plastic waste entering the ocean from China

on a time scale of 10 years.

2. Methods

In this study, a material flow analysis (MFA) model was established using data from each

stage in the lifecycle of plastics. The amount of mismanaged plastic waste was multiplied by

the rate of plastic entering the ocean to calculate the total amount of plastic waste that

entered the ocean from China between 2011 and 2017. We then predicted the amount of

plastic that entered the ocean from 2018 to 2020, and found that strong governmental con-

trol measures could dramatically decrease marine plastic waste input.

Lifecycle assessment is a systematic method used to determine the impacts of products

on the environment through the stages of a product’s life from raw material through

material processing, distribution and use, and recycling or disposal. Material flow analysis

can quantitatively analyze the flows and stocks of materials within a defined system (Van

Eygen et al. 2017). The main components of a MFA model include the raw materials, path-

ways, intermediates, and final sinks of a material. A MFA model must obey the law of con-

servation of mass (Brunner and Rechberger 2004), and all inputs, stocks, and outputs of a

material within the model are balanced.

We connected processes from primary plastic to the plastic garbage generated in China,

and finally calculated the amount of plastic waste entering the ocean from China. The com-

plete MFA model, specific coefficients, and data for evaluating plastic waste entering the

ocean is presented in Bai et al. (2018).Figure 1 is a simplified schematic model of plastic

waste entering the ocean from China. The “Input”refers to several components correlated

with plastic products from the initial form to the end of service life. When plastic products

end their life or are discarded, they become plastic garbage. Recycled plastic garbage, in

turn, can become plastic waste. The “Output”stands for plastic waste that is mismanaged

and could enter the ocean.

3. Source of data

The sources of data used in the model include national official statistics, publications,

and field surveys. By collecting data from the National Bureau of Statistics of P.R.C.,

General Administration of Customs of P.R.C., National Development and Reform

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Commission, and other governmental agencies, we obtained national official statistics.

Data from reports and publications compiled by market research firms and plastic industry

associations like the China Plastic Processing Industry Association and China Scrap Plastics

Association are used in this model. We investigated the status of disposal and management

of plastic waste in Wenzhou, Zhejiang province, which is a typical coastal city in China.

Thus, the quantity of plastic waste that enters the ocean through several major pathways

from coastal areas in China can be calculated.

4. Results

The amount of plastic waste entering the ocean annually during 2011–2020 from China is

shown in Fig. 2. In 2011, inputs to the ocean were 6.5 ×10

t, and this amount rose slowly

until 2016, with a maximum quantity of 8.6 ×10

t in 2016. Because the government agen-

cies of China (General Office of the State Council of the PRC 2017;Ministry of Ecology and

Environment of the PRC 2017,2018;Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the PRC and

Ministry of Commerce of the PRC 2017;Standing Committee of the National People’s

Congress 2017,2018; No. 70 [2017] of the General Office of the State Council; No. 6 [2017] of

the Ministry of Environmental Protection; Announcement No. 39 [2017] of the Ministry of

Environmental Protection, the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and

Reform Commission, the General Administration of Customs, and the General

Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine) have taken positive

and effective measures to reduce the amount of domestic and imported plastic waste

(MOHURD 2017;National Development and Reform Commission of the PRC and MOHURD

2017), the amount entering the ocean in 2017 was 8.5 ×10

t while the amount in 2018 was

7.5 ×10

t. The rapid decrease in the amount of plastic entering the oceans after 2018 is a

result of the reduction measures (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2. Annual amount of plastic waste entering the ocean from 2011 to 2020 in China.

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Amount (million tons)

Year

Amount of marine plastic waste input from 2011 to 2020 in China

Fig. 1. A simplified schematic model of plastic waste entering the ocean from China.

Input Output

MFA model

Plastic

garbage

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5. Discussions and conclusions

Comparing the amount of plastic waste input from China in 2010 estimated by Jambeck

et al. (2015),whichwas(1.32–3.53) ×10

t, to the amount of plastic waste predicted in this

study in 2011 (6.5 ×10

t), it is clear there are large discrepancies. Our estimation is

20%–50% lower than that calculated previously (Jambeck et al. 2015). The overestimation

of marine plastic waste input from China will lead to a global overestimation of the total

quantity of oceanic plastics. According to the results of our estimation, laws and regulations

about mismanaged plastic waste have great influence on oceanic plastics input. To get a

more precise prediction and calculation of marine plastic waste input, the impact of

governmental management plans needs to be taken into consideration when establishing

models.

This study is the first to estimate and predict the amount of plastic waste entering the

oceans annually from China. Our results suggest that the input of plastic waste increased

prior to 2016 and then decreased dramatically after that time. Inputs will likely continue

to decrease in the near future as a result of China’s efforts in domestic waste management

and control. Several uncertainties exist in this study. In particular, we did not include

climate and seasonal variations that could affect runoff and, thus, the amount of plastic

entering the ocean (Morishige et al. 2007;Vianello et al. 2015;Lebreton et al. 2017).

Additionally, the effect of dams was not considered, which also could influence the input

of plastic debris (Lehner et al. 2011). These factors will be taken into account in future mod-

eling efforts.

Acknowledgements

The present paper was read at the 2nd International Conference on Microplastic

Pollution and Control. This work was supported by the National Key Research and

Development Program of China (grant No. 2016YFC1402200) and the National Natural

Science Foundation of China (grant No. 41676190).

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Plastics in the marine environment have become a major concern because of their persistence at sea, and adverse consequences to marine life and potentially human health. Implementing mitigation strategies requires an understanding and quantification of marine plastic sources, taking spatial and temporal variability into account. Here we present a global model of plastic inputs from rivers into oceans based on waste management, population density and hydrological information. Our model is calibrated against measurements available in the literature. We estimate that between 1.15 and 2.41 million tonnes of plastic waste currently enters the ocean every year from rivers, with over 74% of emissions occurring between May and October. The top 20 polluting rivers, mostly located in Asia, account for 67% of the global total. The findings of this study provide baseline data for ocean plastic mass balance exercises, and assist in prioritizing future plastic debris monitoring and mitigation strategies.

SOURCES, FATE AND EFFECTS OF MICROPLASTICS IN THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT: PART 2 OF A GLOBAL ASSESSMENT

Technical Report

Full-text available

Dec 2016

GESAMP (2016). “Sources, fate and effects of microplastics in the marine environment: part two of a global assessment” (Kershaw, P.J., and Rochman, C.M., eds). (IMO/FAO/UNESCO-IOC/UNIDO/WMO/IAEA/UN/ UNEP/UNDP Joint Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspects of Marine Environmental Protection). Rep. Stud. GESAMP No. 93, 220 p. Report editors: Peter J. Kershaw and Chelsea M. Rochman Contributors to the report: Linda Amaral-Zettler, Anthony Andrady, Sarah Dudas (Chapter 5 lead), Joan Fabres, Francois Galgani (Chapter 7 lead), Denise Hardesty (Chapter 3 lead), Valeria Hidalgo-Ruz, Sunny Hong, Peter Kershaw, Laurent Lebreton (Chapter 2 lead), Amy Lusher, Ramani Narayan, Sabine Pahl, James Potemra, Chelsea Rochman, Sheck A. Sherif, Joni Seager, Won Joon Shim, Paula Sobral, Shige Takada, Patrick ten Brink (Chapter 6 lead), Martin Thiel, Richard Thompson, Alexander Turra, Lisbeth Van Cauwenberghe, Erik van Sebille, Dick Vethaak (Chapter 4 lead), Emma Watkins, Kayleigh Wyles, Chris Wilcox, Erik Zettler and Patrizia Ziveri.

Occurrence and distribution of floating microplastics in the North Adriatic Sea: preliminary results

Conference Paper

Full-text available

May 2015

A preliminary monitoring survey of floating microplastics (MPs) in the North-Adriatic Sea was carried out, as part of activities for the "Protocols MATTM-Regions, Marine Strategy implementation-LD. 190/2010". Data were collected during two sampling campaigns (winter and spring) conducted in 2014 along two transect, one in front of the Lagoon of Venice (Pellestrina Island – North) and another in front of the mouth of the Po River (Po della Pila – South). Microplastics (MPs) samples, collected using a Manta trawl, were processed following MATTM operating protocols and then imaged and quantified by stereo-microscopy; a percentage of each sample was analyzed by µFT-IR (Micro Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy) to determine the chemical composition of collected MPs. Results showed a MPs average concentration of 12,19±20,13 particles m-3 (winter sampling) and 1,01±1,02 particles m-3 (spring sampling). µFT-IR analysis showed that the most widely diffuse polymers were polyethylene, polypropylene, ethylene vinyl acetate and polystyrene (91,2% of total analyzed MPs). Pelagic habitats were also investigated, measuring hydro-chemical parameters, the abundance of phytoplankton (average conc. 5809000 cell. dm-3 – winter and 2876520 cell. dm-3 – spring) , zooplankton (average conc. 4522 ind. m-3-winter and 3693 ind. m-3-spring). A comparison between MPs and zooplankton abundance was carried out in order to evaluate the availability of MPs which could be potentially ingested by plankton-feeders organisms. MPs: zooplankton average ratio for both transects resulted 0,01 in winter and 0,001 in spring. Presented data are courtesy of Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea and the Veneto Region. Acknowledgements. We want to thank the Veneto Region and the Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea which allowed to use data for research and institutional aims. We also thank " F.lli Polato Issimo Sport s.r.l. " and " Laguna Project s.n.c. " for logistic support.

Plastic Pollution in the World’s Oceans: More than 5 Trillion Plastic Pieces Weighing over 250,000 Tons Afloat at Sea

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2014
PLOS ONE

Plastic pollution is ubiquitous throughout the marine environment, yet estimates of the global abundance and weight of floating plastics have lacked data, particularly from the Southern Hemisphere and remote regions. Here we report an estimate of the total number of plastic particles and their weight floating in the world’s oceans from 24 expeditions (2007–2013) across all five sub-tropical gyres, costal Australia, Bay of Bengal and the Mediterranean Sea conducting surface net tows (N5680) and visual survey transects of large plastic debris (N5891). Using an oceanographic model of floating debris dispersal calibrated by our data, and correcting for wind-driven vertical mixing, we estimate a minimum of 5.25 trillion particles weighing 268,940 tons. When comparing between four size classes, two microplastic ,4.75 mm and meso- and macroplastic .4.75 mm, a tremendous loss of microplastics is observed from the sea surface compared to expected rates of fragmentation, suggesting there are mechanisms at play that remove ,4.75 mm plastic particles from the ocean surface.

High-levels of microplastic pollution in a large, remote, mountain lake

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2014
MAR POLLUT BULL

Estimation and prediction of plastic waste annual input into the sea from China

Article

Nov 2018

Marine plastic debris has been a pervasive issue since the last century, and research on its sources and fates plays a vital role in the establishment of mitigation measures. However, data on the quantity of plastic waste that enters the sea on a certain timescale remain largely unavailable in China. Here, we established a model using material flow analysis method based on life cycle assessment to follow plastic product from primary plastic to plastic waste with statistical data and monitoring data from accurate sources. This model can be used to estimate and forecast the annual input of plastic waste into the sea from China until 2020. In 2011, 0.547 3–0.751 5 million tons of plastic waste entered the seas in China, with a growth rate of 4.55% per year until 2017. And the amount will decrease to 0.257 1 to 0.353 1 million tons in 2020 under the influence of governmental management. The amount of plastic waste discharged from coastal areas calculated in this study was much larger than that from river, thus it is suggested to strengthen the governance and control of plastic waste in coastal fishery activities in China in order to reduce the amount of marine plastic waste input.

Export of Plastic Debris by Rivers into the Sea

Article

Oct 2017

A substantial fraction of marine plastic debris originates from land-based sources and rivers potentially act as a major transport pathway for all sizes of plastic debris. We analyzed a global compilation of data on plastic debris in the water column across a wide range of river sizes. Plastic debris loads, both microplastic (particles <5 mm) and macroplastic (particles >5 mm) are positively related to the mismanaged plastic waste (MMPW) generated in the river catchments. This relationship is nonlinear where large rivers with population-rich catchments delivering a disproportionately higher fraction of MMPW into the sea. The 10 top-ranked rivers transport 88–95% of the global load into the sea. Using MMPW as a predictor we calculate the global plastic debris inputs form rivers into the sea to range between 0.41 and 4 × 10⁶ t/y. Due to the limited amount of data high uncertainties were expected and ultimately confirmed. The empirical analysis to quantify plastic loads in rivers can be extended easily by additional potential predictors other than MMPW, for example, hydrological conditions.

Comprehensive analysis and quantification of national plastic flows: The case of Austria

Article

Nov 2016
RESOUR CONSERV RECY

Plastics have been increasingly used in a wide range of applications, generating important waste streams, but overall information on their flows through society is generally not available. Therefore, the national plastic flows in Austria were analyzed and quantified from the production stage up to the waste management stage, for the reference year of 2010. To achieve this, material flow analysis was used to set up a model quantitatively describing the Austrian plastics budget, and the quality of the data sources was assessed using uncertainty characterization. The results show that about 1.1 million tonnes (132 kg/cap·a ± 2%) of primary plastics were produced in Austria, whereas about 1.3 million tonnes (156 kg/cap·a ± 5%) of plastics products were consumed. Roughly one third of the consumed amount contributed to net stock increase in all consumption sectors, and about half of this increase occurred in building and construction, whereas packaging waste constituted approximately half of total post-consumer wastes (70 kg/cap·a ± 4%). Of the total waste amount (including traded and production waste, 91 kg/cap·a ± 3%), the majority was incinerated in waste-to-energy plants or in the cement industry (46% and 21% respectively), whereas the rest was mainly recycled mechanically or chemically (21% and 10% respectively). The results identify the major national flows and processes of plastics, and evaluate the overall data availability for quantifying these flows. Furthermore, the increasing amounts of plastic wastes, due to large stocks having been built up in sectors with long product lifetimes, necessitate assessing which processing capacities are needed and which treatment priorities are to be set in waste management.

Marine microplastics spell big problems for future generations

Article

Feb 2016

There are certain human environmental perturbations so major that they are capable of destabilizing the earth’s normal function at a global scale (1). These so-called planetary boundary threats include climate change, ozone depletion, and ocean acidification. Emerging as a novel addition to this list is the vast quantity of discarded plastic waste that is accumulating in the oceans on an unprecedented scale, where it breaks down to form microscopic and nanoscopic fragments, or microplastics. Microplastics (particles with a diameter <1 mm, with no lower limit) derive from progressive fragmentation of larger plastic items, or may be manufactured to be of a small size, for use in personal care products, medicines, and industry (2). They reach the seas through beach littering, road runoff, sewage, and illegal dumping activities. Microplastics are ubiquitous in marine waters, from deep ocean sediments to polar icecaps, a result of the estimated 8 million tons of plastic that enters the oceans each year (3). Despite calls for plastic to be reclassified as hazardous (4), legislation to restrict marine debris accumulation is hindered by a lack of evidence that it causes ecological harm. In PNAS, Sussarellu et al. (5) provide an important starting point for assembling this evidence: Using an integrative approach, they show that ingestion of microplastics during gametogenesis has impacts on feeding and reproduction in oysters, with negative impacts on adult fecundity and offspring quality, both of which are key components of an organism’s individual fitness.

Marine pollution. Plastic waste inputs from land into the ocean

Article

Feb 2015

Plastic debris in the marine environment is widely documented, but the quantity of plastic entering the ocean from waste generated on land is unknown. By linking worldwide data on solid waste, population density, and economic status, we estimated the mass of land-based plastic waste entering the ocean. We calculate that 275 million metric tons (MT) of plastic waste was generated in 192 coastal countries in 2010, with 4.8 to 12.7 million MT entering the ocean. Population size and the quality of waste management systems largely determine which countries contribute the greatest mass of uncaptured waste available to become plastic marine debris. Without waste management infrastructure improvements, the cumulative quantity of plastic waste available to enter the ocean from land is predicted to increase by an order of magnitude by 2025. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.