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Future Technological Achievements as a Challenge for Post-singularity Human Society
Abstract
This chapter focuses on challenges to liberal democracies and welfare states while building a society with different social structures. It examines problems, such as inequality and insufficient employment, of transitioning to a post-singular society. A scenario is constructed where a new society with growing automation, artificial intelligence, but reduced employment will not have time to fully form by the time the second stage of the transition begins. This second stage includes genetic engineering and the possible division of humanity into various non-intersecting and unequal beings. The later cyborgization of people might be necessary for the survival of humanity.
... Al-Imam et al. (2020) in their research come to find the orientation of society towards a Kardashev type-1 civilization with clear evidence of manifestation of Moore's Law in conditions of expansion of quantum computing application at societal level by replacing human from predominantly human activities with AI. This finding is also in line with Tsirel's (2020) idea, which supports in the first stage the replacement of humans in jobs with human contact (taxi drivers, waiters, nurses, etc.) and even the replacement of real pets with specialized robots for health reasons and possibly to limit their torture. However, Tsirel (2020) adds four other directions of technological manifestation to the previous idea, in relation to intervention in human genetics, genetic treatment of tumours (gene therapy), acceleration of medical treatment methods and even influence on the degree of intelligence in children, which will result in the emergence of a new species of homo sapiens with possible adaptation problems at the societal level. ...
... This finding is also in line with Tsirel's (2020) idea, which supports in the first stage the replacement of humans in jobs with human contact (taxi drivers, waiters, nurses, etc.) and even the replacement of real pets with specialized robots for health reasons and possibly to limit their torture. However, Tsirel (2020) adds four other directions of technological manifestation to the previous idea, in relation to intervention in human genetics, genetic treatment of tumours (gene therapy), acceleration of medical treatment methods and even influence on the degree of intelligence in children, which will result in the emergence of a new species of homo sapiens with possible adaptation problems at the societal level. ...
... 5 By this time, the labor shortage will worsen, which is already acute in a number of countries and its cost may increase (Jung & Lim, 2020). While the problem of job cuts due to digitalization, automation and robotization is serious, it seems to us that it is somewhat exaggerated (Frey & Osborne, 2013;Tsirel, 2020;von Weizsaecker & Wijkman, 2018). ...
The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to become one of the turning points in the transformation of the world order, as well as many political, social and other relations in the World System. Undoubtedly, we live in a fast-changing world, when it is imperative to look beyond the horizon of current events in order to understand what tomorrow may bring. In the present article some forecasts of technological, political, as well as social and economic development of the world are presented in a systematic manner. The authors present short-term (10–15 years), medium-term (20–50 years) and long-term (50–100 years) forecasts (with alternative scenarios) based on the theories of long cycles and respective technological paradigms, as well as on the theories of global aging, production principles, production revolutions, Great Divergence and Great Convergence. It is also important for the topic of the article to show that measures taken against the COVID-19 can significantly accelerate the development of social self-regulating systems, which will become one of the important parts of the Cybernetic revolution.
... Tables 1 and 2. See, e.g., Chapter "Threshold 9: Big History as a Roadmap for the Future" (Bohan 2020), Chapter "The Twenty-First Century's "Mysterious Singularity" In the Light of the Big History" (Nazaretyan 2020), Chapter "Global Brain: Foundations of a Distributed Singularity" (Last 2020), or Chapter "Future Technological Achievements as a Challenge for Post-Singularity Human Society" (Tsirel 2020b) in the present collective monograph. ...
This chapter discusses in some detail the possibility of the Singularity being a product of biased human perception described by the Weber–Fechner law. It is shown that though the Weber–Fechner effect can produce series with a hyperbolic shape, the hyperbolic acceleration pattern with the twenty-first century Singularity detected in Panov and Modis–Kurzweil series is explained first of all by the actual hyperbolic acceleration of the global megaevolution.
This study was aimed at creating an effective model of the educational ecosystem in a singularity environment. The study is based on a system of general scientific methods of scientific knowledge, in particular, the method of expert assessment, the method of analogy and comparative analysis. The experts, with the support of facilitators, visualized the possible future of education as a symbiosis of individual and collective learning paths that connect learners with many learning spaces and educational opportunities. To ensure the operability of such a model of the educational ecosystem, it is necessary to create tools and processes that support personal and collective learning and development throughout life, including: processes and tools that help determine the goals of learners; educational processes integrated into the educational trajectory and developing various aspects of personal and collective existence through holistic educational experiences, including play and co-creation; processes and tools that measure 78 ©2020 The authors and IJLTER.ORG. All rights reserved. learning outcomes; educational spaces and technologies that help to combine personal and collective educational trajectories, coordinating individual educational needs with the evolving needs of communities. These processes can be integrated into "ecosystem" systems of educational process management (in which personal and collective learning paths can be combined, and which connect learners with many learning spaces and educational opportunities).
The present paper analyzes the evolution of technology from the beginning of human history. We introduce a new paradigm to analyze the causes and trends of the global evolution. We describe the direction of technological transformations and discuss and explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. We also present a detailed analysis of the latest technological revolution, which we denote as ‘Cybernetic,’ and give some forecasts about its development up to the end of the twenty-first century. It is shown that the expansion of various self-regulating systems will be the main trend of this revolution. We argue that the technological transition of the final phase of the Cybernetics revolution will start in medicine, which is to be the keystone of technological convergence forming the system of MANBRIC-technologies (based on medicine, additive, nano-, bio-, robotics, IT, and cognitive technologies). Today, we are at the threshold to the new era of unprecedented control of a human body, considerable life extension, organ replacement, brain–computer interfaces, robotics, genome editing, etc. The authors describe the mechanisms of technological development and discuss possible risks as well as the limits of post-human revolution.
The main topics of this chapter are the (1) correlations between geological, biological, and social evolution, (2) the reality of accelerating evolutionary processes, as well as (3) the possibility of combining them into an integrated sequence tending to the point of singularity. It is postulated that there are two main patterns of evolutionary processes. The first pattern is a pulsating evolution, consisting of long periods of gradual evolution with a more or less constant speed, separated by shorter periods of crises (periods of rapid evolution). The second pattern includes two components of evolution—one sharply slowing and the other sharply accelerating. Very fast hyperexponential and hyperbolic laws of deceleration occurred during the formation of our Universe, Solar System, and planet Earth, while acceleration occurred throughout Earth-based evolution (including social evolution). Social history can be presented as a continuation of biological history. However, social evolution acts not as a continuation, but as a built-in mechanism of its own self-destruction. Presumably, artificial intelligence and interference with the human genome will play this same role as the social revolution did (see below Chapter “ Technological Achievements of the Future as the Path of Destruction of Habitual Human Society?”). Much attention is paid to the most important phase transitions of biological and social evolution, described in the works of Raymond Kurzweil, Theodore Modis, and Alexander Panov, which represent hyperbolic growth, composed of geometric progressions of decreasing intervals between phase transitions with a factor in the 2.5–3 range. This factor is most likely due to psychological reasons, allowing us to recognize confidently distinct neighboring objects (intervals, objects on the map, etc.). Such geometric progressions are often found in descriptions of the geological environment and geological time. The interval lengths of the geochronological (stratigraphic) scale act as an acceleration measure of biological evolution, also with a hyperbolic trend. As a result, it is concluded that accelerations of biological and social evolution are real processes, but they have a complex composition and intermittent nature. There also remains a bias because recent evolutionary stages are perceived to have greater impact than earlier stages. However, segmentation of history, with the help of phase transition points, is necessary, if not for explanation, then for the perception and understanding of both human and Earth history.
Using mathematical modeling, we consider the phenomenon of singularity in the biological and social history. It is shown that hyperbolic trends in biological and social evolution can be explained by transitional processes that accompany the expansion of ecological niches due to periodically occurring revolutionary innovations. During these periods, strong positive feedbacks are actualized, leading to hyperbolic growth. However, this growth is then inhibited, and the system goes into a new qualitative state. Then, there is a relatively slow development of the updated system with a gradual accumulation of quantitative characteristics and a new innovative breakthrough. This cycle then repeats multiple times. In this regard, the system’s hyperbolic growth trends indicate the transitivity of its current state, while the time of singularity in this hyperbolic trend indicates the end of the transition process.
This book introduces a 'Big History' perspective to understand the acceleration of social, technological and economic trends towards a near-term singularity, marking a radical turning point in the evolution of our planet. It traces the emergence of accelerating innovation rates through global history and highlights major historical transformations throughout the evolution of life, humans, and civilization. The authors pursue an interdisciplinary approach, also drawing on concepts from physics and evolutionary biology, to offer potential models of the underlying mechanisms driving this acceleration, along with potential clues on how it might progress.
The contributions gathered here are divided into five parts, the first of which studies historical mega-trends in relation to a variety of aspects including technology, population, energy, and information. The second part is dedicated to a variety of models that can help understand the potential mechanisms, and support extrapolation. In turn, the third part explores various potential future scenarios, along with the paths and decisions that are required. The fourth part presents philosophical perspectives on the potential deeper meaning and implications of the trend towards singularity, while the fifth and last part discusses the implications of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI). Given its scope, the book will appeal to scholars from various disciplines interested in historical trends, technological change and evolutionary processes.
This concluding chapter summarizes major findings of the present collective monograph. It traces the emergence of accelerating innovation rates through history and the major historical transformations through the evolution of life, humans, and civilization. It draws on the concepts from physics and evolutionary biology to offer potential models of the underlying mechanisms driving this acceleration along with potential clues to how it might end. In general, the study of the twenty-first-century singularity allows to detect a number of sufficiently rigorous global macroevolutionary regularities (describing the evolution of complexity on our planet for a few billions of years), which can be surprisingly accurately described by extremely simple mathematical functions.
This introductory chapter discusses the overall place of the twenty-first-century Singularity within the overall Big History. It is shown that to place the accelerating trend of complexity in the context of Big History, we need to distinguish the two forms (arms) of megaevolution so far in the universe. The first arm of evolution is the decelerating development of physical matter and energy into galaxies, stars, and planets from the initial Big Bang. The second arm of evolution is the accelerating rate of complexity evolution in the form of life, humans, and civilizations, which is the main concern of this book. The book is organized to present these historical megatrends, models, interpretations, future scenarios, and more philosophical questions along with the realization and debate about their limitations and uncertainty.
The present paper analyzes the evolution of technology from the beginning of human history. We introduce a new paradigm to analyze the causes and trends of the global evolution. We describe the direction of technological transformations and discuss and explain the present and forthcoming technological changes. We also present a detailed analysis of the latest technological revolution, which we denote as ‘Cybernetic,’ and give some forecasts about its development up to the end of the twenty-first century. It is shown that the expansion of various self-regulating systems will be the main trend of this revolution. We argue that the technological transition of the final phase of the Cybernetics revolution will start in medicine, which is to be the keystone of technological convergence forming the system of MANBRIC-technologies (based on medicine, additive, nano-, bio-, robotics, IT, and cognitive technologies). Today, we are at the threshold to the new era of unprecedented control of a human body, considerable life extension, organ replacement, brain–computer interfaces, robotics, genome editing, etc. The authors describe the mechanisms of technological development and discuss possible risks as well as the limits of post-human revolution.
The trend of life’s accelerating increase in complexity throughout its history on Earth suggests that a unique time (a unique or singular event, i.e., the singularity) might be realized soon. At this unique time, the growth trend might display unusual behavior. Debate continues whether the rate of change at the singularity will further accelerate, slow down, or demonstrate other behavior (e.g., flattening, collapse). Very basic questions about this historical trend concern the causes such as mathematical conditions of growth and factors like energy, environment, and information. Further details include determination of indications of the singularity’s behavior (e.g., time, number, type) and the pattern of substructure (e.g., timing, transition characteristics) leading up to the singularity. Finally, possible extensions to the pattern are considered in cosmological history, near-term transition to sustainability, and construction of potential far-future scenarios and implications.
The idea that in the near future we should expect “the Singularity” has become quite popular recently, primarily thanks to the activities of Google technical director in the field of machine training Raymond Kurzweil and his book The Singularity Is Near (2005). It is shown that the mathematical analysis of the series of events (described by Kurzweil in his famous book), which starts with the emergence of our galaxy and ends with the decoding of the DNA code, is indeed ideally described by an extremely simple mathematical function (not known to Kurzweil himself) with a singularity in the region of 2029. It is also shown that a similar time series (beginning with the onset of life on Earth and ending with the information revolution—composed by the Russian physicist Alexander Panov completely independently of Kurzweil) is also practically perfectly described by a mathematical function (very similar to the above and not used by Panov) with a singularity in the region of 2027. It is shown that this function is also extremely similar to the equation discovered in 1960 by Heinz von Foerster and published in his famous article in the journal “Science”—this function almost perfectly describes the dynamics of the world population up to the early 1970s and is characterized by a mathematical singularity in the region of 2027. All this indicates the existence of sufficiently rigorous global macroevolutionary regularities (describing the evolution of complexity on our planet for a few billions of years), which can be surprisingly accurately described by extremely simple mathematical functions. At the same time, it is demonstrated that in the region of the Singularity point there is no reason, after Kurzweil, to expect an unprecedented (many orders of magnitude) acceleration of the rates of technological development. There are more grounds for interpreting this point as an indication of an inflection point, after which the pace of global evolution will begin to slow down systematically in the long term.
The danger of deflation has been rather frequently mentioned recently among nu-merous concerns over the European and partly American economies. Analysts cite the Japanese economy which has been suffering from deflation for the last two decades despite the large investments in economy and the government's efforts to increase inflation. Similarly, notwithstanding many trillions of dollars, euro, pounds and yen that were invested in economies over the past few years, the infla-tion in the Western countries still remains low.
On the whole, there are reasons to maintain that European countries suffer from ‘the Japanese disease’, and this disease can progress or even become chron-ic. The USA, although to a lesser extent, has the signs of the disease as well.
As a result, the financial infusions can become permanent, as it happened in Ja-pan. The present paper defines the reasons of the problem, explains the irregu-larity of the inflation-deflation processes in the world and also offers some fore-casts.
Recent years and months have evidenced an increase in deflationary phenomena. The present article defines the reasons for the problem, explains the irregularity of the inflation–deflation processes in the world and forecasts on this basis that the crisis-depressive phase of development in the global economy will continue for a relatively long time. Based on an analysis of available resources and the theory of long cycles, we believe that in the next 5–10 years, the global economy will continue being in the crisis-depression phase with rather sluggish and weak rises. The article also offers some forecasts for the forthcoming sixth Kondratieff wave (2020–the 2060/70s), identifies its possible technological basis, and discusses possible consequences of the forthcoming technological transformations.
The microbial adaptive immune system CRISPR mediates defense against foreign genetic elements through two classes of RNA-guided nuclease effectors. Class 1 effectors utilize multi-protein complexes, whereas class 2 effectors rely on single-component effector proteins such as the well-characterized Cas9. Here, we report characterization of Cpf1, a putative class 2 CRISPR effector. We demonstrate that Cpf1 mediates robust DNA interference with features distinct from Cas9. Cpf1 is a single RNA-guided endonuclease lacking tracrRNA, and it utilizes a T-rich protospacer-adjacent motif. Moreover, Cpf1 cleaves DNA via a staggered DNA double-stranded break. Out of 16 Cpf1-family proteins, we identified two candidate enzymes from Acidominococcus and Lachnospiraceae, with efficient genome-editing activity in human cells. Identifying this mechanism of interference broadens our understanding of CRISPR-Cas systems and advances their genome editing applications.
This new monograph provides a stimulating new take on hotly contested topics in world modernization and the globalizing economy. It begins by situating what is called the Great Divergence--the social/technological revolution that led European nations to outpace the early dominance of Asia--in historical context over centuries. This is contrasted with an equally powerful Great Convergence, the recent economic and technological expansion taking place in Third World nations and characterized by narrowing inequity among nations. They are seen here as two phases of an inevitable global process, centuries in the making, with the potential for both positive and negative results.
This sophisticated presentation examines:
Why the developing world is growing more rapidly than the developed world.
How this development began occurring under the Western world's radar.
How former colonies of major powers grew to drive the world's economy.
Why so many Western economists have been slow to recognize the Great Convergence.
The increasing risk of geopolitical instability.
Why the world is likely to find itself without an absolute leader after the end of the American hegemony
A work of rare scope, Great Divergence and Great Convergence gives sociologists, global economists, demographers, and global historians a deeper understanding of the broader movement of social and economic history, combined with a long view of history as it is currently being made; it also offers some thrilling forecasts for global development in the forthcoming decades.
Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"--claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. With this breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes--from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, leading economists whose work has been influential in the policy debate concerning the current financial crisis, provocatively argue that financial combustions are universal rites of passage for emerging and established market nations. The authors draw important lessons from history to show us how much--or how little--we have learned. Using clear, sharp analysis and comprehensive data, Reinhart and Rogoff document that financial fallouts occur in clusters and strike with surprisingly consistent frequency, duration, and ferocity. They examine the patterns of currency crashes, high and hyperinflation, and government defaults on international and domestic debts--as well as the cycles in housing and equity prices, capital flows, unemployment, and government revenues around these crises. While countries do weather their financial storms, Reinhart and Rogoff prove that short memories make it all too easy for crises to recur. An important book that will affect policy discussions for a long time to come, This Time Is Different exposes centuries of financial missteps.
On the basis of international statistics (WB, OECD, WEF) it is shown that the correlation between GDP per capita growth and government outlays is undergoing complex oscillations. The weak positive correlation of the 1970s gave way to a distinctly negative correlation of the 1980s. However, since the beginning of the 1990s the correlation has been subsiding. During the present decade the correlation has been at its lowest significance in the highly developed countries; in the countries similar to Russia it is, in fact, nil. The basic cause of it is the combination of the positive influence of the government support of R&D and the negative influence of high taxes together with financing non-effective enterprises. The correlation between economic growth and the degree of income discrepancy is also subject to the oscillations. At present the absence of correlation in highly developed countries and negative correlation in countries similar to Russia is noted. The decisive factor of correlation is the positive influence of human capital investment and, at the same time, differentiation of pay.
Special cross-disciplinary research and respective calculations are done independently by scientists from various countries have shown that the twenty-first century is expected to be crucial for human history. Current generations’ activities will determine what exactly the turning point will look like and what direction the subsequent evolution will go. Modern physicists are not finding limits on what we can understand about nature. Yet, the available intellectual self-control necessary to escape destructive effects is questionable. How long can technological growth and social responses be reliably balanced? Throughout human history, identity in human communities (from simple tribes to nations, social classes or world confessions) has been provided by the image of a common enemy. Yet, the current level of technological development blurs lines between both military and peaceful technologies and social conditions. This psychological inertia can be suicidal. So, the central problem of the twenty-first century is whether humans prove ready to develop strategic meanings beyond religious or quasi-religious ideologies, which are often built on the “us-them” mental view. However, insights from philosophers, socio-psychological experiments, and some crucial historical episodes demonstrate that both human solidarity and strategic meanings can be based on a common cause (and not just aimed at an enemy). Yet, little is known about how to construct this mass consciousness. Instead, history is abundant in showing that after long periods without wars, life’s meanings dilute and are replaced with nostalgia for new demons. We currently observe an intensification of this trend in many regions of our planet accompanied by growing instability in global geopolitics. To help thwart this, an international educational program designed to develop cosmopolitan worldviews that are free from group-versus-group attachments is suggested.
A crucial question for practitioners of Big History is whether we should expect a continuation of increasing complexity or a deceleration or collapse of complexity in the Near Future. The ‘future sections’ of the majority of high-profile Big History narratives predominantly paint a binary between catastrophe and a green sustainable future. A minority of big historians have explored what technology and society could look like if complexity does continue to rise. Yet for greater specificity about what that Near Future may look like, we must go beyond disorganised speculation based on technological trends, fads, and rhetoric. Not to mention our own wishful inclinations. Complexity is understood in very broad and general terms, but a more detailed understanding of what complexity is, what its variables are, how it can be measured, and how it changes, will give us a more detailed view of complexity in the future. In essence, with more data on the pattern comes a greater ability to make stronger projections. This is where a more structured approach involving strategic foresight and complexity studies will allow us to profile the Near and Deep Future with a great deal more clarity.
Dobrolyubov considers three phases of social evolution: Adaptive, Structural and Cognitive (in the past, present, and future, respectively). These phases are separated by two transitions (which can also be considered as two singularities)—the Neolithic and the Global transitions. Social evolution is based on the phases’ differing means of individual and societal competition. In the present Structural Phase, individual competition leads to inequality, whereas societal competition leads to greater uniformity of societal structure. The combination of societal expansion and evolutionary growth limits lead to lifecycles of societies. The size of interacting societies tends to increase throughout evolution towards inclusion of all humankind. This global society can be considered a final point (singularity) of the Structural evolution phase. Then society’s metamorphosis further continues in the Cognitive Phase, which might rely directly on individuals’ need for cognition and self-realization, and not on social institutions. A mathematical trend is developed for the timing of these transformations towards this global singularity. It estimates a transformation to a distinct, larger societal organization type every 2000 years starting with the early Neolithic settlements in 10,000 BCE and culminating in the Global singularity in about 4000 CE.
In 2002, Modis published an article forecasting that the rate of change in our lives was about to stop accelerating and indeed begin decelerating. Today, with twenty years’ worth more data, Modis revisits those forecasts. He points outs that an exponential trend would have predicted the appearance of three “cosmic” milestones by now, namely in 2008, 2015, and 2018, but we have seen none. The logistic trend, however, predicted the next milestone around 2033 and could well turn out to be a cluster of achievements in AI, robotics, nanotechnology, and bioengineering, analogous to what happened with the milestone at the turn of the 20th century. He sees this as confirmation that the concept of a Singularity is not called for.
It is a strange and fascinating time to be alive. Modern societies and lifeways are changing faster than ever as new technologies rapidly reshape the nature of modern institutions, modes of communication, healthcare, education, relationships, and our views of what it means to be human and to live a good life. Masses of humans across the globe are at risk of succumbing to what the futurist Alvin Toffler called “future shock,” i.e., “the shattering stress and disorientation that we induce in individuals by subjecting them to too much change in too short a time.” With such rapid change in play, humanity badly needs a global roadmap for the future. Besides the issues of climate change, population growth, declining biodiversity, and sustainability, we must also think seriously about the rise of artificial intelligence, exponential growth trends in technological evolution, and the impacts of rapidly developing information technologies. In this chapter, Bohan develops a conceptual scaffold for a Threshold 9 story, focusing on the next hundred years. She proposes using the key concepts of the Great Acceleration and Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns to contextualize the immediate future as a transhuman era of accelerating social, technological and planetary change, and human-machine convergence. In addition, a provisional list of twelve major topics is presented that Bohan believes we should explore in this context of accelerating change. Even if a technological singularity never occurs, there will be enough social disruption in the immediate future to necessitate a common framework that can help us understand why the world is changing so fast today and help us imagine potential scenarios.
Despite all of the elaborate mechanisms that a cell employs to handle its DNA with the utmost care, a newborn human carries about 100 new mutations, originated in their parents, about 10 of which are deleterious. A mutation replacing just one of the more than three billion nucleotides in the human genome may lead to synthesis of a dysfunctional protein, and this can be inconsistent with life or cause a tragic disease. Several percent of even young people suffer from diseases that are caused, exclusively or primarily, by pre?]existing and new mutations in their genomes, including both a wide variety of genetically simple Mendelian diseases and diverse complex diseases such as birth anomalies, diabetes, and schizophrenia. Milder, but still substantial, negative effects of mutations are even more pervasive. As of now, we possess no means of reducing the rate at which mutations appear spontaneously. However, the recent flood of genomic data made possible by next-generation methods of DNA sequencing, enabled scientists to explore the impacts of deleterious mutations on humans with previously unattainable precision and begin to develop approaches to managing them. Written by a leading researcher in the field of evolutionary genetics, Crumbling Genome reviews the current state of knowledge about deleterious mutations and their effects on humans for those in the biological sciences and medicine, as well as for readers with only a general scientific literacy and an interest in human genetics. Provides an extensive introduction to the fundamentals of evolutionary genetics with an emphasis on mutation and selection Discusses the effects of pre-existing and new mutations on human genotypes and phenotypes Provides a comprehensive review of the current state of knowledge in the field and considers crucial unsolved problems Explores key ethical, scientific, and social issues likely to become relevant in the near future as the modification of human germline genotypes becomes technically feasible Crumbling Genome is must-reading for students and professionals in human genetics, genomics, bioinformatics, evolutionary biology, and biological anthropology. It is certain to have great appeal among all those with an interest in the links between genetics and evolution and how they are likely to influence the future of human health, medicine, and society.
Significance
Midlife increases in suicides and drug poisonings have been previously noted. However, that these upward trends were persistent and large enough to drive up all-cause midlife mortality has, to our knowledge, been overlooked. If the white mortality rate for ages 45−54 had held at their 1998 value, 96,000 deaths would have been avoided from 1999–2013, 7,000 in 2013 alone. If it had continued to decline at its previous (1979‒1998) rate, half a million deaths would have been avoided in the period 1999‒2013, comparable to lives lost in the US AIDS epidemic through mid-2015. Concurrent declines in self-reported health, mental health, and ability to work, increased reports of pain, and deteriorating measures of liver function all point to increasing midlife distress.
From the mercantile monopolies of seventeenth-century empires to the modern-day authority of the WTO, IMF, and World Bank, the nations of the world have struggled to effectively harness globalization's promise. The economic narratives that underpinned these eras-the gold standard, the Bretton Woods regime, the "Washington Consensus"-brought great success and great failure. In this eloquent challenge to the reigning wisdom on globalization, Dani Rodrik offers a new narrative, one that embraces an ineluctable tension: we cannot simultaneously pursue democracy, national self-determination, and economic globalization. When the social arrangements of democracies inevitably clash with the international demands of globalization, national priorities should take precedence. Combining history with insight, humor with good-natured critique, Rodrik's case for a customizable globalization supported by a light frame of international rules shows the way to a balanced prosperity as we confront today's global challenges in trade, finance, and labor markets.
A framework for open discourse on the use of CRISPR-Cas9 technology to manipulate the human genome is urgently needed.
Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Bacteria and archaea have evolved adaptive immune defenses, termed clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats
(CRISPR)/CRISPR-associated (Cas) systems, that use short RNA to direct degradation of foreign nucleic acids. Here, we engineer
the type II bacterial CRISPR system to function with custom guide RNA (gRNA) in human cells. For the endogenous AAVS1 locus,
we obtained targeting rates of 10 to 25% in 293T cells, 13 to 8% in K562 cells, and 2 to 4% in induced pluripotent stem cells.
We show that this process relies on CRISPR components; is sequence-specific; and, upon simultaneous introduction of multiple
gRNAs, can effect multiplex editing of target loci. We also compute a genome-wide resource of ~190 K unique gRNAs targeting
~40.5% of human exons. Our results establish an RNA-guided editing tool for facile, robust, and multiplexable human genome
engineering.
Incluye índice Incluye bibliografía Partes de la obra: Series de tiempo fractales. Análisis fractal de rango reescalado. Aplicaciones de análisis fractal. Ruido Fractal. Caos. Todos estos modelos matemáticos son aplicados al análisis económico de mercados.
Several recent analyses provide growing evidence of the influence of positive selection acting in the ancestors of modern humans. Additionally, the best way to explain current fluctuations in neutral variation across the genome is by including negative selection against a high rate of deleterious mutants. We suggest that explaining these predicted high deleterious mutation rates in humans could require the inclusion of additional factors, such as inbreeding and prezygotic selection, in addition to rank-order selection and fitness interactions among mutations. We also suggest that some forms of selection, rather than being relaxed in modern humans, are probably still acting and might intensify in the near future, and make some predictions about the next several millennia of human evolution.
Mismeasuring our lives: why GDP doesn’t add up: the report
- J E Stiglitz
- A Sen
- J P Fitoussi
- JE Stiglitz
The truth about Foxconn’s Foxbot industrial robots
- I Bonev
Budusheye i ego gorizonty: sinergeticheskaya metodologiya v prognozirovanii
- E N Knyazeva
- S P Kurdyumov
Neobyknovennyi populism. Unusual populism
- A Zotin
Posle kapitalizma. Budusheye zapadnoy tzivilizatcii
- K G Frumkin
- KG Frumkin
Democracy in chains: the deep history of the radical right's stealth plan for America
- N Maclean
Vozmozhnost’ teoretitcheskoi istorii: otvet na vyzov Karla Poppera
- N S Rozov
- NS Rozov
Department of Health & Human Services. Crashed: How a decade of financial crises changed the world
- U Cr
Democracy and truth: a short history
- S Rosenfeld
Vliyaniye gosudarstvennogo vmeshatel’stva v ekonomiku I sotcial’nogo neravenstva na ekonomitcheskiy rost
- S V Tsirel
Populizm v rossii i yevrope
- B Makarenko
- N Petrov
Populism: a very short introduction
- C Mudde
- C R Kaltwasser