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Russia-Ukraine gas transit talks: risks for all sides
... The European market was considered the only and most promising market even after the collapse of the USSR, when most of the export volume was transported through Ukraine. Geopolitical issues, including the Russian-Ukrainian gas transit disputes, caused complications [39]. The transit risks were supposed to be mitigated by re-directing European supplies via other routes, avoiding transit countries. ...
... Of these, two main export pipelines (accounting for approximately 45% of the export volume), "Urengoj-Pomary-Uzhgorod" and "Soyuz," which pass through Ukraine, were built in 1983 and 1979, respectively, and require reconstruction [51]. Large export volumes through these two pipelines and technical challenges, along with tense Russian-Ukrainian relations [39], result in a high risk scenario. ...
This study provides a comprehensive, updated, and refined analysis of the challenges and opportunities for Russian natural gas exports based on recent statistical data, academic publications, and media sources. The paper addresses the lack of continuity in studies within the topic since the recent changes are not reflected well enough in the current peer-reviewed literature. In order to understand the perspectives regarding Russian natural gas export in global natural gas markets, we consequently examine the current layout of the global natural gas markets, and challenges and opportunities for Russian natural gas exports. The analysis shows that the U.S. natural gas market is closed for Russian exports. In the European market, Russia is experiencing difficulties in increasing its export shares, or even maintaining current levels, owing to various macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges. Asian markets such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea, are the most promising destinations for future Russian natural gas exports. Despite strong geopolitical challenges and high competition globally, Russia should seek maintaining current export levels in the European market, while implementing a win-win export strategy, and secure its future export shares on the Asian markets. The results of the study can be used for scenario and planning purposes, and be useful for policy makers and industry practitioners.
... Hasil analisa dari artikel ini berusaha untuk mengisi celah dalam penelitian-penelitian kontemporer mengenai dampak perang Rusia-Ukraina, yang terkonsentrasi pada isu-isu high politics seperti kerawanan energi global (Mitrova, Pirani, and Sharples 2019;Yermakov and Sobczak 2020), dampak geopolitis global (Tampubolon 2022), serta implikasi terhadap bisnis dan ekonomi Uni Eropa (Prohorovs 2022 ...
Konflik Rusia-Ukraina yang dimulai tahun 2014 telah mencapai puncaknya pada tahun 2022. Pasca konflik ini, tarif angkutan laut internasional meningkat dengan tajam dan kelangkaan pangan mulai terjadi di Uni Eropa dan negara-negara lain di dunia. Bahkan tingkat kelaparan di negara-negara miskin atau yang sedang dilanda konflik sipil seperti di Afrika semakin meningkat. Artikel ini menggunakan metode kualitatif dengan jenis eksplanatif yang berupaya untuk menjelaskan mengapa perang Rusia-Ukraina telah menyebabkan kerawanan pangan global. Metode pengumpulan data sekunder melalui analisa laporan-laporan organisasi internasional, jurnal, dan buku. Artikel ini menggunakan teori konflik internasional dan global supply chain, serta konsep transportasi multimoda internasional dan food security. Hasil analisis data dari artikel ini menunjukkan bahwa konflik Rusia-Ukraina telah melumpuhkan distribusi pangan dari dan ke Ukraina akibat serangan ke pelabuhan-pelabuhan besar di Ukraina, blokade Laut Hitam oleh Rusia, serta distribusi pangan melalui jalur alternatif ternyata tidak efektif. Padahal Uni Eropa serta negara-negara di kawasan Afrika dan Timur Tengah menggantungkan suplai gandumnya dari Rusia dan Ukraina. Sanksi-sanksi yang dilayangkan oleh dunia internasional terhadap transportasi dari negara Rusia semakin memperparah kondisi ini. Berkaca dari artikel ini dapat ditarik kesimpulan bahwa kebijakan yang terbaik untuk mengatasi kerawanan pangan global akibat konflik Rusia-Ukraina adalah melalui kerja sama intensif antara pelaku usaha serta pembuat kebijakan lintas batas negara terutama negara-negara tetangga di sekitar Ukraina untuk menjamin distribusi pangan global. Artikel ini dapat dijadikan acuan bagi artikel-artikel selanjutnya untuk mencari solusi terbaik bagi gangguan rantai suplai makanan dalam situasi konflik.
... Europe was able to accommodate these higher than equilibrium volumes thanks to its liquid spot market and large underground gas storage capacity. 7 European demand in 2019 was also higher than the long-run equilibrium because of the fear that the Ukrainian transit of Russian gas deliveries to Central Europe would be interrupted (Mitrova et al., 2019). While a new Ukraine transit contract was being negotiated in late 2019 that would cover the next five years, tensions between the U.S. and Russia over natural gas supplies to Europe continue. ...
State-of-the-art, open access numerical modeling of imperfectly competitive energy markets offers a sound and transparent way to address topical research questions in energy and commodity markets. We use an open access equilibrium model, the Global Gas Model (GGM), and sector-specific, politically motivated scenarios to investigate the prospects for sales of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S. into the European energy market. We discuss the risks and opportunities for U.S. LNG and derive implications for policy, business, and finance in the energy sector. We find that Europe is not an attractive market for US LNG in the base case and in scenarios of moderate support of U.S. LNG flows into Europe. In these scenarios, Asia offers higher prices for US LNG and draws substantially higher import volumes. Our modeling results show that the interconnectedness of global gas markets due to an abundance of LNG import capacity in Europe and other regions—particularly Asia—allows for adjustments to global trade patterns that mitigate the consequences of regional disturbances.
... Furthermore, gas delivery has been uninterrupted even during the annexation of Crimea and the ensuing frosty relationship between the EU and Russia. This allows for some optimism that the situation can be remedied after 2020 as well, though rebuilding trust is not envisaged to be easily achieved (Mitrova et al., 2019;Pirani, 2019). ...
The Russian gas transit through Ukraine and the possibility of circumnavigating the historically dominant route poses a serious challenge to European gas markets. With the application of market modelling tools, this paper examines Russian export strategies to Europe using different transit route combinations. Although the cessation of Ukrainian transit would not endanger the security of gas supply in Europe, it would result in higher prices in all scenarios. In scenarios that include Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream 2, Ukrainian transit is non-essential for Russia to maintain its current share of EU gas imports. At the same time, the results show that limiting Ukrainian transit is less profitable for Russia: even if all the planned infrastructure is completed, shutting this route would result in losses of close to 5 billion € per year in Russian gas sales. Since it appears inevitable that Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream 2 will be built, a no transit scenario is a real possibility thereafter. In this case the V4 should lobby for Balkan Stream, with investment costs borne by Gazprom. However, if there are continued deliveries via Ukraine there is no need for Balkan Stream.
... russia has confirmed its readiness to transmit gas to ukraine via the Eu, according to European rules, in particular, the Minister of Energy of the russian federation, novak, confirmed, "our position is that if European legislation is really implemented in January 2020, then we are ready to work in accordance with European legislation . This means that they are ready to reserve capacity from January 1, 2020" (Mitrova, pirani & sharples, 2019) . representatives of the ukrainian delegation told the press that such a conclusion was expected and optimal at this stage, as the gas transmission capacity is a fundamental difference between the European transit system and the one used for gas transit through ukraine under the 2009 contract (Šefčovič, 2019) . ...
This article reveals the essence of energy diplomacy in Ukraine to be an effective and powerful tool for improving national energy security. The focus lies on an analysis of the European energy diplomacy rules that presuppose the ability to take into account the interests of all parties, including the interests of Ukraine, which comply with European legislation and should be considered as an integral part of the EU gas market. With a powerful resource, it is a transit country for’ the transportation of gas, Ukraine needs to concentrate all its efforts on maintaining the status of a geopolitical player. However, playing by European rules requires compliance with European standards on the organization of gas production and transportation. Currently, Ukraine has been developing an proactive energy diplomacy strategy that faces external challenges and threats. While playing a crucial role as a strategic geopolitical gas transit country, Ukraine requires the use of proactive strategies to advance the agenda for European energy security. To conclude, it is necessary that Ukraine should vigorously develop suitable energy diplomacy as an effective tool for improving energy security both on the national and European levels.This article reveals the essence of energy diplomacy in Ukraine to be an effective and powerful tool for improving national energy security. The focus lies on an analysis of the European energy diplomacy rules that presuppose the ability to take into account the interests of all parties, including the interests of Ukraine, which comply with European legislation and should be considered as an integral part of the EU gas market. With a powerful resource, it is a transit country for’ the transportation of gas, Ukraine needs to concentrate all its efforts on maintaining the status of a geopolitical player. However, playing by European rules requires compliance with European standards on the organization of gas production and transportation. Currently, Ukraine has been developing an proactive energy diplomacy strategy that faces external challenges and threats. While playing a crucial role as a strategic geopolitical gas transit country, Ukraine requires the use of proactive strategies to advance the agenda for European energy security. To conclude, it is necessary that Ukraine should vigorously develop suitable energy diplomacy as an effective tool for improving energy security both on the national and European levels.
Russia has been a longstanding and time-tested partner for India. Development of India-Russia relations has been a key pillar of India’s Foreign policy. India and Russia have enjoyed good relations since 1947 wherein Russia helped India in attaining its goal of economic self-sufficiency through investment in areas of heavy machine-building , mining, energy production and steel plants. Later India and Soviet Union signed the Treaty of Peace and Friendship in august 1971 which was the manifestation of shared goals of the two nations as well as blueprint for the strengthening of regional and global peace and security. After the dissolution of Soviet Union, India and Russia entered into a new Treaty of Friendship and cooperation in January 1993 and a bilateral Military-Technical Cooperation agreement in 1994. As the Indian government’s response to the Russian-Ukrainian crisis received a mixed reaction, it puts a serious introspective question to Indian lawmakers: is Indian foreign policy still dependent upon the big superpowers or are we moving towards Atmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India)? After abstaining in UN Security Council, New Delhi again abstained from voting in United Nations General Assembly on a resolution condemning “in the strongest terms” Russia’s belligerence against Ukraine and calling on Moscow to “immediately, completely, and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from Ukraine’s territory within its internationally recognised borders.” In the current crisis, India has strived to maintain a non-aligned collinear, avoiding pointing a finger or naming names. This has proven to be challenging in the present predicament. It has done so by reiterating fundamental principles enshrined in the UN Charter and international law, but also appeals for a halt to violence and to return for dialogue as “the only response to addressing disagreements and conflicts, however daunting that may sound at this time.”
The main purpose of the text is to present a selection of energy security problems affecting Central and Eastern European countries, including a selective comparative analysis in relation to Western European countries. In the first place, a comparative analysis is applied to some general issues concerned with energy security, so that in the end included is a special dimension of energy security, i.e. gas security understood as gas supply security. The comparative analysis covers three dimensions of energy security: (1) socio-economic, (2) innovative and technological and (3) geopolitical (and geoeconomic). Besides, the analysis performed makes use of, as a background and inspiration, theoretical aspects of historical materialism, structural approaches as part of the dependency paradigms of research into international political and economic relations, as well as the presuppositions of the research programme concerning energy security by Cherp and Jewell.
Worsened relations between Gazprom and Naftogaz have questioned the future gas transit to European consumers following the expiration of gas supply and transit agreement in 2019. In this paper we are analyzing the relations of the two companies since the establishment of independent countries in the post-Soviet area, and we provide brief historical overview of Ukraine's positioning as a gas transit land in the Soviet period. Significant events are elaborated which defined the relations between the two companies, especially since the gas crisis in 2006 and 2009. Following the conclusion of agreements between Gazprom and Naftogaz in 2009, there were still many challenges that call into question sustainability of the agreement between the parties. In addition, a significant role belonged to the European Union and its Member States, which were receiving large quantities of gas through the territory of Ukraine. There was a suspicion among actors that new gas (dis)agreement could occur between Gazprom and Naftogaz. The breakthrough in the negotiations was only made at the end of 2019, so the gas agreement between the parties continues, but Ukraine's position as a gas transit country in the future remains questionable.
Key words: Gazprom, Naftogaz, Russia, Ukraine, gas transit, European consumers
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