Machine-learned prediction of annual crop planting in the U.S. Corn Belt based on historical crop planting maps

Abstract

An accurate crop planting map can provide essential information for decision support in agriculture. The method of post-season and in-season crop mapping has been widely studied in the land use and land cover community. However, it remains a challenge to predict the spatial distribution of crop planting before the growing season. This paper is the first attempt to use machine learning approach on the prediction of field-level annual crop planting from historical crop planting maps. We present an end-to-end machine learning framework for crop planting prediction using Cropland Data Layer (CDL) time series as reference data and multi-layer artificial neural network as prediction model. The proposed framework was first tested at Lancaster County of Nebraska State, then scaled up to the U.S. Corn Belt. According to the experiment results from 53 Agricultural Statistics Districts, we found the machine-learned crop planting map was expected to reach 88% agreement with the future CDL. Meanwhile, the crop acreage estimates derived from the machine-learned prediction were highly correlated (R2 > 0.9) with the crop acreage estimates of CDL and official statistics by the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service. This study provides a low-cost and efficient way to predict annual crop planting map, which can be used to support many agricultural applications and decision makings before the beginning of a growing season.

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7H9>?J;9JKH; <EH J>; '' CE:;B
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J>; +;9J?Y;: %?D;7H .D?J +;%. M>?9> 97D 8; MH?JJ;D 7I
M>;H; P ?I J>; ?DFKJ JE 7 D;KHED ->; EKJFKJ B7O;H KI;I ,E<J&7N <KD9J?ED
JE DEHC7B?P; J>; H;IKBJ ?DJE 7 FHE878?B?JO :?IJH?8KJ?ED ->; ,E<J&7N 97D
8; :;YD;: 7I
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I;DJI J>; ?D:;N E< J>; EKJFKJ KD?JI 7D: H;FH;I;DJI J>; JEJ7B 9B7II;I
"D J>; FHEFEI;: CE:;B J>; 9HEF JOF; E< ?DFKJ F?N;B M?BB 8; FH;:?9J;: 7I
J>; JOF; M?J> J>; >?=>;IJ FHE878?B?JO ?=  I>EMI 7D ;N7CFB; E< J>;
C79>?D;B;7HD;: 7DDK7B 9HEF FB7DJ?D= FH;:?9J?ED 87I;: ED J>; FHE878?B
?JO :?IJH?8KJ?ED E< ,E<J&7N ;I?:;I M; KI; J>; 9HEII ;DJHEFO 7I J>; BEII
<KD9J?ED M>?9> ?I <H;GK;DJBO KI;: ?D 9B7II?Y97J?ED FHE8B;CI 7D: :7C
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E=H7F>O 9B?C7J; 7D: EJ>;H <79JEHI C7O ?DZK;D9; J>; 9HEF :?IJH?8K
J?ED 7D: 9HEF I;GK;D9; 7CED= J>; IJK:O 7H;7 ,?D9; J>; 9HEFB7D:I
?D ED; , >7L; H;B7J?L;BO I?C?B7H 7=H?9KBJKH7B 9>7H79J;H?IJ?9I 7D:
;DL?HEDC;DJ M; JH7?D 7D: 7FFBO J>; CE:;B <EH FH;:?9J?ED 7J J>; ,
B;L;B O <;;:?D= J>; J;IJ?D= I;J E< J>; 9EHH;IFED:?D= , JE J>; JH7?D;:
CE:;B 7 F?N;B8OF?N;B FH;:?9J?ED C7F E< J>; 9EC?D=O;7H 9HEF FB7DJ?D=
JOF; 97D 8; 9H;7J;: O H;F;7J?D= J>?I FHE9;:KH; , 8O , M; M?BB
=;J 7 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7F <EH J>; ;DJ?H; IJK:O 7H;7
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$7FF7 FH;9?I?ED H;97BB 7D:  I9EH; ->; ( C;7IKH;I J>; FHEFEHJ?ED
E< 9EHH;9JBO FH;:?9J;: F?N;BI M>;H; J>; I;J E< B78;BI ?D FH;:?9J?ED H;
IKBJ ;N79JBO C7J9>;I J>; 9EHH;IFED:?D= I;J E< B78;BI ?D J>; H;<;H;D9; ?C
7=; ?D 7BB F?N;BI $7FF7 E>;D  C;7IKH;I ?DJ;H7DDEJ7JEH 7=H;;
C;DJ M>?9> ?I :;YD;: 7I
M>;H; H;FH;I;DJI J>; 79JK7B E8I;HL;: 7=H;;C;DJ H;FH;I;DJI J>;
>OFEJ>;J?97B FHE878?B?JO E< 9>7D9; 7=H;;C;DJ
&;7DM>?B; M; KI; FH;9?I?ED 7D: H;97BB JE C;7IKH; J>; FH;:?9J?ED H;
IKBJ E< ;79> 9B7II ->; FH;9?I?ED 7D: H;97BB 97D 8; :;YD;: 7I <EBBEM
M>;H;  H;FH;I;DJI J>; DKC8;H E< JHK; FEI?J?L;I  H;FH;I;DJI J>;
DKC8;H E< <7BI; FEI?J?L;I 7D:  H;FH;I;DJI J>; DKC8;H E< <7BI; D;=7
J?L;I ->; FH;9?I?ED C;7IKH;I J>; 78?B?JO E< J>; FH;:?9JEH DEJ JE B78;B 7I
FEI?J?L; 7 I7CFB; J>7J ?I D;=7J?L; ->; H;97BB C;7IKH;I J>; 78?B?JO E< J>;
FH;:?9JEH JE YD: 7BB J>; FEI?J?L; I7CFB;I
BIE M; KI;  I9EH; JE 9EC8?D; FH;9?I?ED 7D: H;97BB M>?9> 97D 8;
:;YD;: 7I
->; L7BK; E< J>; 78EL; C;JH?9I B?;I 8;JM;;D  7D:  ->; >?=>;H J>;
L7BK; J>; 8;JJ;H J>; FH;:?9J?ED F;H<EHC7D9;
3. Experiments and results
->?I I;9J?ED FH;I;DJI 7 =HEKF E< ;NF;H?C;DJI JE L7B?:7J; J>; FHEFEI;:
C;J>E: ?HIJ M; J;IJ;: J>; FH;:?9J?ED CE:;B 7J J>; 9EKDJO B;L;B ,;9
J?ED  ->;D M; FH;:?9J;: 7D: L7B?:7J;: J>; 7DDK7B 9HEF FB7DJ?D=
C7FI <EH J>; ., EHD ;BJ ,;9J?ED  &EH;EL;H M; 9ECF7H;: J>;
9HEF 79H;7=; 97B9KB7J;: <HEC J>; FH;:?9J;: 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7F M?J> J>;
% 7D: E<Y9?7B IJ7J?IJ?9I 8O ., ',, ,;9J?ED 
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0; I;B;9J;: %7D97IJ;H EKDJO E< ';8H7IA7 ,J7J; 7I J>; +(" JE J;IJ
J>; <;7I?8?B?JO E< J>; FH;:?9J?ED CE:;B ->; =;E=H7F>O E< J>; IJK:O
7H;7 ?I I>EMD ?D ?=  "J ?I BE97J;: 7J 7IJ ';8H7IA7 , 
Fig. 6. N7CFB; E< C7FF?D= C79>?D;B;7HD;: FH;:?9J?ED H;IKBJ 87I;: ED J>; FHE878?B?JO :?IJH?8KJ?ED E< ,E<J&7N


UNCORRECTED PROOF
!(".'%3", /-043%12".$,%#31/.)#2).'1)#4,341% 777 7777 777777
Fig. 7. ;E=H7F>O E< %7D97IJ;H EKDJO ';8H7IA7
M>?9> <7BBI ?D J>; M;IJ;HD F7HJ E< J>; ., EHD ;BJ ?= 7 I ED; E<
J>; JEF 7=H?9KBJKH7B FHE:K9J?ED 9EKDJ?;I ?D ';8H7IA7 %7D97IJ;H 9EKDJO
>7I  79H;I E< 7=H?9KBJKH7B B7D: M>?9> J7A;I  E< J>; JEJ7B B7D:
7H;7 99EH:?D= JE J>;  % IJ7J?IJ?9I ?= 8 9EHD 7D: IEO8;7DI
7H; JME :EC?D7DJ 9HEFI ?D J>?I 7H;7 7I M;BB 7I J>; ;DJ?H; ., EHD ;BJ
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:?9J;: 7D: ;L7BK7J;:  B7D: KI; 9B7II;I ;79> E< M>?9> J7A;I 7J B;7IJ
 E< J>; JEJ7B B7D: 7H;7 E< J>; 9EKDJO
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0; KI;: J>;  % :7J7 7I H;<;H;D9; :7J7 JE ;L7BK7J; J>; FH;
:?9J?ED H;IKBJ ->; FH;:?9J;: 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7F E<  B7D: KI; 9B7II;I
79>?;L;: J>; ( E<  7D: $7FF7 L7BK; E<  -78B;  IKCC7H?;I
J>; F;H<EHC7D9; E< J>; CE:;B ?D J>; 9EKDJOB;L;B J;IJ ->; J78B; ?I
IEHJ;: 8O J>; IKFFEHJ L7BK; M>?9> H;FH;I;DJI J>; DKC8;H E< % F?N
;BI E< ;79> 9B7II ?D J>;  % :7J7 EH 9B7II;I EJ>;H J>7D J>; 
Table 1
);H<EHC7D9; E< J>;  FH;:?9J?ED H;IKBJ <EH %7D97IJ;H EKDJO E< ';8H7IA7
B7II ,KFFEHJ )H;9?I?ED +;97BB I9EH;
,EO8;7D    
EHD    
H7IIB7D:)7IJKH;    
;9?:KEKIEH;IJ    
;L;BEF;:%EM"DJ;DI?JO    
;L;BEF;:(F;D,F79;    
;L;BEF;:&;:"DJ;DI?JO    
(J>;H!7O'EDB<7B<7    
(F;D07J;H    
;L;BEF;:!?=>"DJ;DI?JO    
(J>;HI    
B<7B<7    
J7H=;J B7D: KI; 9B7II;I J>;O M;H; B78;B;: 7I “EJ>;HI”:KH?D= J>; IJ;F E<
:7J7 FH;FHE9;II?D= "J ?I <EKD: J>7J J>; FH;9?I?ED H7J; E< 7BB 9B7II;I M7I
I7J?I<79JEHO ->;  I9EH; <EH CEIJ 9B7II;I ?D9BK:?D= J>; JME :EC?D7J;
9HEFI 9EHD 7D: IEO8;7D ;N9;;:I  !EM;L;H J>; H;97BB H7J; E< “EJ>;H
>7ODED7B<7B<7”7D: “EJ>;HI”M7I BEM ->;H; 7H; JME C7?D H;7IEDI <EH
J>; BEM H;97BB H7J; (D J>; ED; >7D: J>; “EJ>;H”97J;=EHO C?N;: :?<<;H
;DJ 9B7II;I ?DJE J>; I?D=B; ED; ->KI CEIJ “EJ>;H”97J;=EHO F?N;BI :E DEJ
>7L; 9B;7H 9HEF I;GK;D9; F7JJ;HDI (D J>; EJ>;H >7D: J>; 9HEF 97J;=EHO
E< % :7J7 C7O L7HO O;7H 8O O;7H EH ;N7CFB; J>;  % <EH %7D
97IJ;H EKDJO :E;I DEJ ?D9BK:; “EJ>;H >7ODED7B<7B<7”9B7II
->; FHE:K9J?ED E< 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7F ?I 87I;: ED J>; FHE878?B?JO :?I
JH?8KJ?ED E< ,E<J&7N <KD9J?ED O YBJ;H?D= J>; F?N;BI E< BEM;H FHE87
8?B?JO 7 9HEF FH;:?9J?ED C7F E< >?=>FHE878?B?JO F?N;BI 97D 8; 9H;7J;:
->; JH7:;E\ >;H; ?I J>; DKC8;H E< FH;:?9J;: F?N;BI MEKB: 8; H;:K9;:
7=7?DIJ 7D ?D9H;7I?D= FHE878?B?JO J>H;I>EB: ?=  I>EMI J>; 9KHL;I E<
FH;:?9J?ED F;H<EHC7D9; L;HI;I J>; FHE878?B?JO J>H;I>EB: <EH 9EHD IEO
8;7DI 7D: 7B<7B<7 <HEC J>; FH;:?9J?ED H;IKBJ
 "00).' /& #/4.38,%5%, #1/0 0,".3).' 01%$)#3)/.
->; YD7B EKJFKJ E< J>; FH;:?9J?ED <H7C;MEHA ?I 7D 7DDK7B 9HEF FB7DJ
?D= C7F M>?9> ?I I?C?B7H JE J>; % FHE:K9J 7D: ?JI FHE878?B?JO C7F
87I;: ED J>; ,E<J&7N <KD9J?ED ?=  9ECF7H;I J>; FHE878?B?JO C7F
?= 7 7D: 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7F ?= 8 E< C79>?D;B;7HD;: FH;:?9
J?ED M?J> J>; % :7J7 ?= 9 E< %7D97IJ;H EKDJO "D =;D;H7B J>;
IF7J?7B :?IJH?8KJ?ED E< CEIJ 9HEFB7D:I ?D J>; FH;:?9J;: 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7F
?I 9EDI?IJ;DJ M?J> J>; % (DBO 7 IC7BB DKC8;H E< C?IFH;:?9J;: F?N;BI
97D 8; L?IK7BBO :?I9;HD;:
7I;: ED J>; FH;:?9J?ED H;IKBJ E< J>; <EBBEM?D= O;7H J>; CKBJ?O;7H
9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7FI 97D 8; H;9KHI?L;BO FH;:?9J;: EH ;N7CFB; 8O KI
?D= J>; FH;:?9J?ED H;IKBJ E<  7I D;M H;<;H;D9; :7J7 M; 97D FH;
:?9J J>; 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7F E<  ?=  9ECF7H;I J>; 9HEF FB7DJ?D=
C7FI <HEC  JE  O 9ECF7H?D= J>;  %  % 7D:
Fig. 8. KHL;I E< FH;:?9J?ED F;H<EHC7D9; LI FHE878?B?JO J>H;I>EB:


UNCORRECTED PROOF
!(".'%3", /-043%12".$,%#31/.)#2).'1)#4,341% 777 7777 777777
Fig. 9. ECF7H?IED E< C79>?D;B;7HD;: FH;:?9J?ED 7D: % <EH %7D97IJ;H EKDJO E< ';8H7IA7 ,J7J; ->; FHE878?B?JO C7F H;FH;I;DJI J>; IF7J?7B :?IJH?8KJ?ED E< J>; >?=>;IJ FHE878?B?JO <HEC
J>; ,E<J&7N <KD9J?ED J>; 8H?=>J;H J>; F?N;B J>; >?=>;H J>; FHE878?B?JO BB F?N;BI E< J>; 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7F 7H; 97J;=EH?P;: 7I ED; E< B7D: KI; 9B7II;I
Fig. 10. HEF FB7DJ?D= C7FI <HEC  JE 
J>; FH;:?9J?ED C7FI <HEC  JE  M; 97D E8I;HL; C7DO 9EHDIEO
8;7D HEJ7J?EDI >7FF;D?D= EL;H J?C;
 1/0 0,".3).' 01%$)#3)/. &/1 3(%  /1. %,3
0?J> J>; IK99;II E< J>; 9EKDJOB;L;B 9HEF FH;:?9J?ED M; I97B;: KF
J>; FHEFEI;: C79>?D; B;7HD?D= C;J>E: JE , B;L;B 7D: FH;:?9J;: J>;
7DDK7B 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7FI <EH J>; ., EHD ;BJ ->;H; 7H; JME C7?D
:?<<;H;D9;I ?D J>; 9EDY=KH7J?ED 8;JM;;D J>; 9EKDJOB;L;B ;NF;H?C;DJ
7D: J>; ,B;L;B ;NF;H?C;DJ ->; YHIJ :?<<;H;D9; ?I J>; DKC8;H E< FH;
:?9J?ED 97J;=EH?;I ->; 9EKDJOB;L;B ;NF;H?C;DJ FH;:?9J;:  B7D: KI;
9B7II;I !EM;L;H CEIJ E< J>;C 7H; DEJ 9HEFI -E >?=>B?=>J J>; 97F78?B?JO
E< 9HEF FB7DJ?D= FH;:?9J?ED <EH J>; FHEFEI;: 7FFHE79> J>?I ;NF;H?C;DJ
EDBO <E9KI;: ED J>; C7@EH 9HEF JOF;I ?; 9EHD 7D: IEO8;7D EL;H J>;
., EHD ;BJ 79> F?N;B MEKB: 8; FH;:?9J;: 7I ED; E< J>H;; 97J;=EH?;I
9EHD IEO8;7D EH EJ>;HI ->; I;9ED: :?<<;H;D9; ?I J>; I;B;9J?ED E< JH7?D
?D= I7CFB;I ->; ,B;L;B FH;:?9J?ED MEKB: >7D:B; CK9> CEH; F?N
;BI J>7D J>; 9EKDJOB;L;B FH;:?9J?ED -E ?CFHEL; J>; JH7?D?D= ;<Y9?;D9O
;79> ,B;L;B % :7J7 I;J M7I H;I?P;: 7D: EDBO ED; E< J;D F?N;BI M;H;
KI;: 7I J>; JH7?D?D= I7CFB;I
-E <KHJ>;H L;H?<O J>; FHEFEI;: CE:;B M; 7FFB?;: J>; I7C; ''
<H7C;MEHA JE =;D;H7J; J>; 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7F E< J>H;; 9EDI;9KJ?L;
O;7HI – 7D: ;L7BK7J;: J>; H;IKBJ M?J>  %  %
7D:  % H;IF;9J?L;BO &EH;EL;H 7D 7DDK7B 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7F
E<  M7I 9H;7J;: -78B;  B?IJI J>; <KBB :7J7 I;J KI;: <EH
Table 2
7J7 I;J KI;: <EH FH;:?9J?D= 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7F E< –
2;7H -H7?D?D=,;J%78;B,;J -;IJ?D=,;J +;<;H;D9;,;J
 %–%
%–%
%–% 7
%– %
 %–%
%–%
%–%
%– %
 %–%
%–%
%–%
%– %
 %–%
%–%
%–%
%– '
7.D7L7?B78B; <EH &?DD;IEJ7 (>?E 7D: ,EKJ> 7AEJ7
FH;:?9J?D= 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7FI <HEC  JE  K; JE J>; KD7L7?B
78?B?JO E< J>; >?IJEH?97B % :7J7 <EH &?DD;IEJ7 (>?E 7D: ,EKJ> 7AEJ7
8;<EH;  EDBO JME IK8I;JI % – 7D: % –
M;H; KI;: JE 8K?B: J>; H;9KHI?L; JH7?D?D= I;J E< J>;  FH;:?9J?ED
CE:;B <EH IEC; ,I


UNCORRECTED PROOF
!(".'%3", /-043%12".$,%#31/.)#2).'1)#4,341% 777 7777 777777
 5",4"3)/. /& ,%5%, #1/0 0,".3).' 01%$)#3)/.
?=  ?BBKIJH7J;I J>; ( 7D: $7FF7 L7BK; <EH 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7FI
E< 7BB ,I <HEC  JE  0; 97D I;; J>; FH;:?9J?ED H;IKBJ E<
CEIJ ,I 97D 79>?;L; J>; >?=> (  7D: J>; <7?H $7FF7 L7BK;
 !EM;L;H J>; EL;H7BB F;H<EHC7D9; <EH IEC; ,I BE97J;: ?D
,EKJ> 7AEJ7 'EHJ> 7AEJ7 7D: (>?E M7I DEJ I7J?I<79JEHO
-E C;7IKH; J>; EL;H7BB FH;:?9J?ED F;H<EHC7D9; EL;H J>; ;DJ?H; IJK:O
7H;7 M; 97B9KB7J;: J>; >?=>;IJBEM;IJ L7BK; C;7D 7D: C;:?7D <EH J>;
( $7FF7 I9EH; FH;9?I?ED H;97BB 7D:  I9EH; E< 7BB ,B;L;B 9HEF
FB7DJ?D= C7FI <EH ;79> J7H=;J O;7H ?=  FH;I;DJI J>; EL;H7BB F;H<EH
C7D9; 7I 8EN FBEJ  DEJ?9;78B; <;7JKH; E< J>; H;IKBJ M7I J>; H;B7J?EDI>?F
8;JM;;D O;7H 7D: F;H<EHC7D9; BJ>EK=> ?J ?I DEJ :H7C7J?9 M; 97D IJ?BB
E8I;HL; J>; F;H<EHC7D9; E< ( 7D: $7FF7 ?= 7 J>; FH;9?I?ED H7J;
E< IEO8;7DI ?= 8 J>; H;97BB H7J; E< 9EHD 7D: IEO8;7DI ?= 9
7D:  I9EH; E< 9EHD 7D: IEO8;7DI ?= : >7: =H7:K7BBO ?D9H;7I;:
7D: H;79>;: J>; >?=>;IJ ?D  ->; KD:;HBO?D= H;7IED <EH J>?I 9>7D=;
?I J>; ?CFHEL;C;DJ E< J>; % :7J7 GK7B?JO O;7H 7<J;H O;7H ,?D9; J>;
JH7?D?D= I;J 7D: J;IJ?D= I;J M;H; 8K?BJ M?J> J>; CEIJ H;9;DJ O;7H %
J?C; I;H?;I J>; FH;:?9J?ED CE:;B 7I M;BB 7I J>; C79>?D;B;7HD;: 9HEF
FB7DJ?D= C7FI MEKB: 8; CEH; H;B?78B; EL;H J?C;
 "00).' /& ,%5%, #1/0 0,".3).' 01%$)#3)/.
 I?:;8OI?:; 9ECF7H?IED E< J>; ,B;L;B 9HEF FB7DJ?D= FH;:?9J?ED
C7FI 7D: % M7I FH;I;DJ;: ?D ?=  ->; FH;:?9J;: IF7J?7B :?IJH?8
KJ?ED C7FI E< 9EHD 7D: IEO8;7DI EL;H J>; ., EHD ;BJ <HEC  JE
 7H; :?IFB7O;: ?D ?= 7 9 7D: ; H;IF;9J?L;BO ->; :;J7?BI
E< JME +("I ED; ?I BE97J;: 7J J>; , E< C;:?7D ( 7D: J>; EJ>;H ?I
BE97J;: 7J J>; , E< C;:?7D $7FF7 L7BK; 7H; :;CEDIJH7J;: ?D ;79> Y=
KH; I 7 9EDJHEB J>; % C7FI E< J>; 9EHH;IFED:?D= O;7H 7H; =?L;D ?D
?= 8 : 7D: < H;IF;9J?L;BO
"D 7::?J?ED M; C7:; J>; FH;:?9J;: 7DDK7B 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7F <EH
 87I;: ED J>; B7J;IJ % :7J7 ,?C?B7H JE J>; 78EL; ?CFB;C;D
J7J?ED J>; FH;:?9J?ED CE:;B E<  M7I JH7?D;: KI?D= J>; H;9KHI?L;
JH7?D?D= I;JI E< % J?C; I;H?;I E< – B78;B;: M?J>  %
% J?C; I;H?;I E< – B78;B;: M?J>  % 7D: % J?C;
I;H?;I E< – B78;B;: M?J>  % ->;D J>; 9HEF FB7DJ?D=
FH;:?9J?ED C7F E<  M7I 9H;7J;: 8O 7FFBO?D= % J?C; I;H?;I E<
– JE J>; JH7?D;: CE:;B ?=  :;F?9JI J>; FH;:?9J;: 9HEF
FB7DJ?D= C7F E<  K; JE J>; B79A E< ?DI;7IED H;CEJ; I;DI?D=
:7J7 7D: ?DY;B: IKHL;O :7J7 ?D J>; H;7B 7=H?9KBJKH7B FH79J?9; ?J ?I :?<
Y9KBJ JE ;L7BK7J; J>; 799KH79O E< C79>?D;B;7HD;: FH;:?9J?ED 8;<EH;
J>; 8;=?DD?D= E< 7 =HEM?D= I;7IED 7I;: ED J>; F;H<EHC7D9; E< J>;
Fig. 11. L7BK7J?ED E< J>; C79>?D;B;7HD;: 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7FI 7J , B;L;B


UNCORRECTED PROOF
!(".'%3", /-043%12".$,%#31/.)#2).'1)#4,341% 777 7777 777777
Fig. 12. EN FBEJ E< J>; EL;H7BB FH;:?9J?ED F;H<EHC7D9; <HEC  JE  ->; KFF;H 7D: BEM;H 8EKD:I E< J>; 8EN H;FH;I;DJ J>; YHIJ 7D: J>?H: GK7HJ?B;I ->; 9HEII C7HA 87H ?D J>; 8EN
7D: L;HJ?97B B?D; ?D:?97J; J>; C;7D C;:?7D 7D: C?D?CKCC7N?CKC 8EKD: H;IF;9J?L;BO ->; EKJB?;HI E< ;79> 9BKIJ;H 7H; I>EMD 7I J>; IEB?: :EJ
>?IJEH?97B L7B?:7J?ED H;IKBJI J>; C79>?D;B;7HD;: FH;:?9J?ED E< 9HEF
FB7DJ?D= C7F E< 9EHD 7D: IEO8;7DI ?I ;NF;9J;: JE H;79>  (
 1/0 "#1%"'% %23)-"3)/. &1/- #1/0 0,".3).' -"0
 ",)$"3)/. /& #1/0 "#1%"'% 42).' 
HEF 79H;7=; ?I ED; E< J>; CEIJ 9H?J?97B ?D<EHC7J?ED ?D 7=H?9KBJKH7B
:;9?I?ED C7A?D=I ->; C79>?D;B;7HD;: 9HEF FB7DJ?D= FH;:?9J?ED C7F
97D 8; FEJ;DJ?7BBO KI;: <EH FH;:?9J?D= <KJKH; 9HEF 79H;7=; ->?I ;NF;H
?C;DJ 7?CI JE ;L7BK7J; J>; 799KH79O E< 9HEF 79H;7=; 97B9KB7J;: <HEC
J>; C79>?D;B;7HD;: 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7F ?=  ?BBKIJH7J;I J>; 9EH
H;B7J?ED 8;JM;;D ,B;L;B 9HEF 79H;7=;I :;H?L;: <HEC J>; C79>?D;
B;7HD;: 9HEF FB7DJ?D= FH;:?9J?ED C7F 7D: % <EH J>; ;DJ?H; IJK:O 7H;7
"J 97D 8; <EKD: <HEC J>; Y=KH; J>7J J>;H; ?I 7 >?=> 9EHH;B7J?ED   
J>HEK=>EKJ 7BB E8I;HL;: O;7HI  JE  ,F;9?<?97BBO J>; 9E
;<Y9?;DJ E< 9EHD 7D: IEO8;7D A;FJ =E?D= KF EL;H J?C; 7D: H;79>;: J>;
>?=>;IJ L7BK; ?D 
 ",)$"3)/. /& #1/0 "#1%"'% 42).' /;#)", 23"3)23)#2
-E L7B?:7J; J>; FH;:?9J;: 9HEF 79H;7=; M?J> J>; E<Y9?7B IJ7J?IJ?9I
M; E8J7?D;: J>; :7J7 E< ,B;L;B 79H;I FB7DJ;: <HEC J>; ., ',,
"EM7 ?;B: (<Y9; M>?9> 97D 8; 799;II;: 7J >JJFIMMMD7IIKI:7
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

UNCORRECTED PROOF
!(".'%3", /-043%12".$,%#31/.)#2).'1)#4,341% 777 7777 777777
Fig. 13. ECF7H?IED E< ,B;L;B FH;:?9J?ED H;IKBJ 7D: % 2;BBEM F?N;BI H;FH;I;DJ 9EHD =H;;D F?N;BI H;FH;I;DJ IEO8;7D +("I ?D ;79> Y=KH; 7H; BE97J;: 7J J>; , E< C;:?7D ( 7D:
J>; , E< C;:?7D $7FF7 L7BK; H;IF;9J?L;BO EH ?DJ;HFH;J7J?ED E< J>; H;<;H;D9;I JE 9EBEKH ?D J>?I Y=KH; B;=;D: J>; H;7:;H ?I H;<;HH;: JE J>; M;8 L;HI?ED E< J>?I 7HJ?9B;
FHE:K9J?ED (L;H  C?BB?ED 79H;I E< 9EHD 7D:  C?BB?ED 79H;I E<
IEO8;7DI M;H; >7HL;IJ;: ?D  ->; ',, HEFI,JE9AI IKHL;O 9EB
B;9JI J>; :;J7?B;: ;IJ?C7J;I E< 9HEF 79H;7=; <HEC <7HC 7D: H7D9> EF;H7
JEHI <EKH J?C;I F;H O;7H "D J>?I ;NF;H?C;DJ J>; :7J7 E< 79H;I FB7DJ;: 7H;
9EBB;9J;: ?D #KD; ?=  ?BBKIJH7J;I J>; 9EHH;B7J?ED 8;JM;;D J>; FH;
:?9J;: 9HEF 79H;7=; 7D: J>; E<Y9?7B IJ7J?IJ?9I E< 79H;I FB7DJ;: ?D "EM7
->; H;IKBJ I>EMI J>7J J>; +9E;<Y9?;DJ ?I >?=>;H J>7D  <EH 8EJ> 9EHD
7D: IEO8;7DI ?D 7BB E8I;HL;: O;7HI
-78B;  IKCC7H?P;I J>; JEJ7B 79H;7=; E< ;79> 9HEF JOF; <EH "EM7
->?I H;IKBJ IK==;IJI J>; C79>?D;B;7HD;: 9HEF 79H;7=; FH;:?9J?EDI E<
9EHD ?I L;HO 9BEI; JE J>; % :7J7 ->; C79>?D;B;7HD;: 9HEF 79H;7=; ;I
J?C7J;I E< IEO8;7DI ED J>; EJ>;H >7D: ?I 7 B?JJB; 8?J BEM;H 8KJ IJ?BB 9BEI;
JE J>; % :7J7 ->; 9HEF 79H;7=; E< 8EJ> C79>?D;B;7HD;: H;IKBJ 7D:
% 7H; B;II J>7D J>; E<Y9?7B IJ7J?IJ?9I


UNCORRECTED PROOF
!(".'%3", /-043%12".$,%#31/.)#2).'1)#4,341% 777 7777 777777
Fig. 14. &79>?D;B;7HD;: FH;:?9J?ED E< 7DDK7B 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7F ?D 
4. Discussion
 00,)#"3)/.2 /& -"#().%,%"1.%$ #1/0 0,".3).' -"0
->?I IJK:O FHEL?:;I 7 D;M F;HIF;9J?L; <EH 9HEF FB7DJ?D= FH;:?9J?ED
?<<;H;DJ <HEC J>; ?DI;7IED 7D: FEIJI;7IED 9HEF C7FF?D= J>; FHE
FEI;: 7FFHE79> 97D FH;:?9J J>; IF7J?7B :?IJH?8KJ?ED E< Y;B:B;L;B 9HEF
FB7DJ?D= 8;<EH; J>; 8;=?DD?D= E< =HEM?D= I;7IED ->; C79>?D;B;7HD;:
9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7F 97D 8; KI;: JE IKFFEHJ C7DO 7=H?9KBJKH7B 7FFB?97J?EDI
7D: :;9?I?ED C7A?D=I IK9> 7I 9HEF 79H;7=; ;IJ?C7J?ED 9HEF O?;B: FH;
:?9J?ED 9HEF CE:;B?D= 7D: 7=H?9KBJKH7B 9ECCE:?JO JH7:?D= &EH; ?C
FEHJ7DJBO J>; FH;:?9J;: F?N;BI M?J> >?=> FHE878?B?JO 97D 8; KI;: 7I J>;
Y;B:B;L;B H;<;H;D9; :7J7 JE <79?B?J7J; C7DO ;7HBOI;7IED?DI;7IED %.%
IJK:?;I ;IF;9?7BBO J>; C79>?D; B;7HD?D= 7FFB?97J?EDI M>?9> H;GK?H; 7
B7H=; 7CEKDJ E< H;<;H;D9; :7J7 7I JH7?D?D= B78;BI BIE J>; FH;:?9J?ED
E< IF7J?7B :?IJH?8KJ?ED E< 9HEF FB7DJ?D= M?BB FHEL?:; L7BK78B; ?D<EHC7J?ED
<EH 7=H?9KBJKH; FEB?9OC7A;HI 7I M;BB 7I J>; 7=H?9KBJKH; 9ECF7D?;I
 (8 42).' 1%#412)5% 31").).' 2%32
->;H; 7H; :?<<;H;DJ 9EC8?D7J?EDI E< J>; DKC8;H E< H;9KHI?L; IK8
I;JI 7D: J>; CEL?D= M?D:EM E< J>; >?IJEH?97B % J?C; I;H?;I 0; 97D
9>EEI; ;?J>;H J>H;; H;9KHI?L; IK8I;JI M?J> O;7H CEL?D= M?D:EM EH @KIJ
ED; IK8I;J M?J> 7 O;7H CEL?D= M?D:EM 0>?B; :;I?=D?D= J>; IJHK9
JKH; E< J>; JH7?D?D= I;J CKBJ?FB; 9EC8?D7J?EDI M;H; 9EDI?:;H;: 99EH:
?D= JE EKH J;IJ M; <EKD: J>; 9EC8?D7J?ED E< J>H;; H;9KHI?L; IK8I;JI
M?J> O;7H CEL?D= M?D:EM 97D H;79> J>; 8;IJ F;H<EHC7D9; ->?I H;
IKBJ 9EKB: 8; 97KI;: 8O J>; <EBBEM?D= H;7IEDI ?HIJ J>; GK7B?JO E< J>;
;7HBOO;7H % :7J7 ?I DEJ 7I =EE: 7I J>; B7J;IJ % :7J7 ->;H; 7H;
C7DO F?N;BI C?I9B7II?Y;: EH 9EL;H;: M?J> 9BEK: 8;<EH;  "< M; 8K?B:
J>; JH7?D?D= I;J 87I;: ED 7 L;HO BED= J?C; I;H?;I J>;I; F?N;BI M?J> ?D9EH
H;9J ?D<EHC7J?ED M?BB 7<<;9J J>; FH;:?9J?ED F;H<EHC7D9; ,;9ED: :?<<;H
;DJ 9HEFB7D: KD?JI C?=>J >7L; :?<<;H;DJ 9HEF I;GK;D9;I "< J>; E8I;HL;:
J?C; I;H?;I ?I DEJ BED= ;DEK=> J>; F7JJ;HD E< 9HEF I;GK;D9; 97DDEJ 8;
M;BB B;7HD;: 8O J>; FH;:?9J?ED CE:;B ->?H: J>; H;9KHI?L; JH7?D?D= I;J
9EDJ7?DI 9HEF FB7DJ?D= ?D<EHC7J?ED <EH J>; B7IJ J>H;; 9EDI;9KJ?L; O;7HI
->; FH;:?9J?ED CE:;B JH7?D;: M?J> J>; I?D=B;O;7H B78;B;: JH7?D?D= I;J
J>EK=> EDBO H;<;HI JE J>; B7IJ O;7H’I 9HEF FB7DJ?D= H;IKBJI -E 8; 8H?;<
J>; CEL?D= M?D:EM E< J>; JH7?D?D= I;J 97DDEJ 8; JEE BED= EH JEE I>EHJ
8KJ I>EKB: 9EL;H J>; F;H?E: E< CEIJ 9HEF HEJ7J?ED F7JJ;HDI
 $5".3"'%2 /& #1/0 01%$)#3)/. 42).' -"#().% ,%"1.).'
!;H; M; IKCC7H?P; IEC; 7:L7DJ7=;I E< J>; FHEFEI;: C79>?D; B;7HD
?D= <H7C;MEHA ?HIJ J>; FHEFEI;: <H7C;MEHA ?I ;7IO JE ?CFB;C;DJ
J>; EDBO H;GK?H;: ?DFKJ ?I J>; >?IJEH?97B % J?C; I;H?;I :7J7 (D9; J>;
FHE9;II ?I :ED; 7 H7IJ;H =;EH;<;H;D9;: C79>?D;B;7HD;: 9HEF FB7DJ?D=
FH;:?9J?ED C7F M?BB 8; =;D;H7J;: 'E H;CEJ; I;DI?D= :7J7 EH ?DI;7IED
9HEF FB7DJ?D= ?D<EHC7J?ED 7H; D;;:;:
->; FH;:?9J?ED CE:;B 97D B;7HD C7DO ?DJH?97J; 9HEF I;GK;D9; F7J
J;HDI "J ?I M;BB ADEMD J>7J 7 BEJ E< 9HEFB7D:I ?D J>; ., EHD ;BJ >7I
IF;9?Y9 9HEF HEJ7J?ED F7JJ;HDI IK9> 7I CEDE9HEFF?D= EH 7BJ;HD7J; 9HEF
F?D= KJ C7DO E< J>;C :E DEJ IJH?9JBO <EBBEM ED; F7JJ;HD EL;H 7 BED=
F;H?E: ->; D;KH7B D;JMEHA 97D B;7HD DEJ EDBO H;=KB7H 9HEF HEJ7J?ED F7J
J;HDI 8KJ 7BIE IEC; ?HH;=KB7H F7JJ;HDI
->; C79>?D;B;7HD;: 9HEF FB7DJ?D= FH;:?9J?ED C7F ?I FHE:K9;:
87I;: ED J>; FHE878?B?JO :?IJH?8KJ?ED <HEC ,E<J&7N B7O;H O I;JJ?D= J>;
J>H;I>EB: ED J>; FHE878?B?JO :?IJH?8KJ?ED 7 9HEF FB7DJ?D= FH;:?9J?ED C7F
M?J> 7 >?=>;H FHE878?B?JO E< 7=H;;C;DJ 97D 8; 9H;7J;: EH ;N7CFB; ?<
M; I;J J>; FHE878?B?JO J>H;I>EB: JE  J>; FH;:?9J;: F?N;BI 7H; ;N
F;9J;: JE >7L; 7 >?=>;H 7=H;;C;DJ M?J> J>; % KJ J>; 9EIJ ?I M?J>
J>; ?D9H;7I; E< J>H;I>EB: CEH; F?N;BI M?BB 8; YBJ;H;: EKJ
::?J?ED7BBO J>; FHEFEI;: C79>?D; B;7HD?D= <H7C;MEHA ?I Z;N?8B;
7D: ;NJ;D:78B; M>?9> 97D 8; KI;: ?D J>; FH;:?9J?ED E< 9HEF C7FF?D=
FHE:K9JI EJ>;H J>7D % EH ;N7CFB; 8O 7FFBO?D= J>; J?C; I;H?;I E<
DDK7B HEF "DL;DJEHO M>?9> ?I J>; 7DDK7B 9HEF C7FF?D= FHE:K9J E<
7D7:7 H;B;7I;: 8O =H?9KBJKH; 7D: =H?EE: 7D7:7  JE J>;
<H7C;MEHA 7 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7F E< 7D7:7 97D 8; FEJ;DJ?7BBO FH;:?9J;:
 )-)3"3)/.2 ".$ 0/3%.3)", 2/,43)/.2
->;H; 7H; IJ?BB IEC; B?C?J7J?EDI ED J>; 9KHH;DJ ?CFB;C;DJ7J?ED E<
J>; FHEFEI;: CE:;B ->?I IJK:O KI;I J>; >?IJEH?97B % JE 8K?B: JH7?D
?D=J;IJ?D= I;J 7D: ;L7BK7J; J>; FH;:?9J;: 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7F !EM;L;H
% ?I DEJ J>; =HEKD: JHKJ> :7J7 ;L;D J>EK=> ?J H;79>;I >?=> 799KH79O
 <EH 9B7II?<O?D= C7@EH 9HEF JOF;I EL;H ('., ->;H;<EH; ;HHEHI
97DDEJ 8; 7LE?:;: ?D J>; FH;:?9J?ED H;IKBJ 87I;: ED J>; >?IJEH?97B %
:7J7 ->; ;NF;H?C;DJ ,;9J?EDI  7D:  KI;: % 7I H;<;H;D9;
:7J7 JE ;L7BK7J; J>; FH;:?9J?ED H;IKBJ :K; JE J>; KD7L7?B78?B?JO E< J>;
=HEKD: JHKJ> :7J7 ,JH?9JBO IF;7A?D= J>; ;L7BK7J?ED H;IKBJ ?I 9BEI; JE J>;
JHKJ> 8KJ DEJ 78IEBKJ;BO 799KH7J; -E <KHJ>;H ;L7BK7J; J>; FH;:?9J?ED H;
IKBJ J>; =HEKD: JHKJ> :7J7 7H; H;GK?H;:


UNCORRECTED PROOF
!(".'%3", /-043%12".$,%#31/.)#2).'1)#4,341% 777 7777 777777
Fig. 15. ECF7H?IED E< % 7D: C79>?D;B;7HD;: FH;:?9J;: 9HEF 7H;7 7J , B;L;B


UNCORRECTED PROOF
!(".'%3", /-043%12".$,%#31/.)#2).'1)#4,341% 777 7777 777777
Fig. 16. ECF7H?IED E< E<Y9?7B IJ7J?IJ?9I 7D: C79>?D;B;7HD;: 9HEF 79H;7=; FH;:?9J?ED 7J , B;L;B


UNCORRECTED PROOF
!(".'%3", /-043%12".$,%#31/.)#2).'1)#4,341% 777 7777 777777
Table 3
,KCC7HO E< 9HEF 79H;7=; ;IJ?C7J;I <EH "EM7 <HEC  JE 
2;7H EHD ,EO8;7D
&79>?D;B;7HD;: % ([9?7BIJ7J?IJ?9I &79>?D;B;7HD;: % ([9?7BIJ7J?IJ?9I
      
      
      
BJ>EK=> J>; FH;:?9J?ED H;IKBJI <EH CEIJ ,I M;H; =EE: J>; EL;H7BB
F;H<EHC7D9; <EH IEC; IF;9?Y9 H;=?EDI IK9> 'EHJ> 7AEJ7 , 
,  7D: ,  M;H; DEJ I7J?I<79JEHO ;97KI; 'EHJ>
7AEJ7 >7I 7 CEH; :?L;HI; B7D:I97F; J>; C7?D 9HEFI EL;H J>;I; ,I
7H; DEJ EDBO 9EHD 7D: IEO8;7D 8KJ 7BIE C7DO EJ>;H 9HEFI ->; 9HEF I;
GK;D9; E< IK9> 9HEFB7D:I 9EKB: 8; CEH; ?DJH?97J; 7D: :?L;HI; -E B;J J>;
C79>?D; <KBBO B;7HD J>; FEJ;DJ?7B 9HEF I;GK;D9; F7JJ;HDI 7 BED= >?IJEH?
97B E8I;HL7J?ED ?I H;GK?H;:  FEJ;DJ?7B IEBKJ?ED ?I ?D9H;7I?D= J>; CEL?D=
M?D:EM I?P; E< JH7?D?D= I7CFB;I J>KI CEH; >?IJEH?97B 9HEF FB7DJ?D= ?D
<EHC7J?ED MEKB: 8; ?D9BK:;: ?D J>; JH7?D?D= I;J
&?N;: F?N;BI M>?9> 7H; BE97J;: ED J>; C7H=?D E< ;79> B7D: KD?J C7O
FHEL?:; MHED= H;<;H;D9; :7J7 ?D 8EJ> JH7?D?D=J;IJ?D= I;J L;D J>EK=>
J>;I; F?N;BI 799EKDJ <EH 7 IC7BB FHEFEHJ?ED ?D 7BB % F?N;BI J>;O C?=>J
IJ?BB 7<<;9J J>; F;H<EHC7D9; E< J>; FH;:?9J?ED H;IKBJ ->;H;<EH; J>; F;H
<EHC7D9; E< J>; FH;:?9J?ED CE:;B 97D 8; ?CFHEL;: 8O H;CEL?D= J>;I;
C?N;: F?N;BI <HEC J>; JH7?D?D= I;J
,?D9; J>?I IJK:O :?: DEJ <E9KI ED J>; :;I?=D 7D: :;L;BEFC;DJ E< D;M
:;;F B;7HD?D= 7B=EH?J>CI J>; 9KHH;DJ '' ?CFB;C;DJ7J?ED 97D 8; <KH
J>;H ?CFHEL;: -E 79>?;L; J>; EFJ?C7B F;H<EHC7D9; J>; >OF;HF7H7C;
J;HI IK9> 7I B;7HD?D= H7J;I M;?=>JI EFJ?C?P;H BEII <KD9J?ED 79J?L7J?ED
<KD9J?ED 7D: 87J9> I?P; E< J>; FH;:?9J?ED CE:;B D;;: JE 8; IF;9?<?97BBO
JKD;: <EH ;79> , EH 9EKDJO
->; FHEFEI;: C;J>E: EDBO B;7HDI J>; F7JJ;HD <HEC J>; >?IJEH?97B 9HEF
FB7DJ?D= C7FI ->;H;<EH; ?J ?I IJ?BB 7 9>7BB;D=; JE 9EHH;9JBO FH;:?9J J>;
9HEF JOF; <EH B7D: KD?JI J>7J 8H;7A J>; F7JJ;HD ?D J>; 9EC?D= O;7H +;7
IEDI <EH 8H;7A?D= J>; F7JJ;HDI 7H; 9ECFB;N M>?9> 9EKB: 8; H;B7J;: JE
C7DO :OD7C?9 7D: KD9;HJ7?D <79JEHI IK9> 7I C7HA;J I?JK7J?ED =EL;HD
C;DJ FEB?9O IE9?E;9EDEC?9 <79JEHI M;7J>;H H7?D<7BB 7D: J;CF;H7JKH;
J>; ;<Y9?;D9O E< ?HH?=7J?ED IOIJ;CI GK7B?JO E< 9HEF I;;:I IE?B GK7B?JO
7D: D7JKH7B >7P7H:I -E <KHJ>;H EFJ?C?P; J>; '' <H7C;MEHA EJ>;H ?D
<EHC7J?ED IK9> 7I >?IJEH?97B 7D: <KJKH; 7=H?9KBJKH7B 9ECCE:?JO FH?9;I
D;;: JE 8; 9EDI?:;H;:
5. Conclusion and future works
->?I IJK:O ;NFBEH;: J>; <;7I?8?B?JO E< KI?D= C79>?D; B;7HD?D= JE FH;
:?9J J>; Y;B:B;L;B 7DDK7B 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7F 87I;: ED J>; >?IJEH?97B %
:7J7 D ;D:JE;D: C79>?D; B;7HD?D= <H7C;MEHA 87I;: ED CKBJ?B7O;H
'' 7D: H;9KHI?L; JH7?D?D= I;J M7I :;L;BEF;: 7D: :;CEDIJH7J;: ->;
;NF;H?C;DJ H;IKBJ E< %7D97IJ;H EKDJO E< ';8H7IA7 ,J7J; I>EMI J>; C7
9>?D;B;7HD;: 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7F 97D H;79>  7=H;;C;DJ M?J> J>; %
:7J7 O I97B?D= KF J>; FHEFEI;: 7FFHE79> JE J>; ., EHD ;BJ M; 97D
9ED9BK:; J>; ,B;L;B C79>?D;B;7HD;: 9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7F ?I ;NF;9J;:
JE H;79>  7=H;;C;DJ M?J> J>; <KJKH; % &;7DM>?B; J>; ,B;L;B
9HEF 79H;7=; 97B9KB7J;: <HEC J>; C79>?D;B;7HD;: H;IKBJ ?I >?=>BO 9EHH;
B7J;: +  M?J> J>; % IJ7J?IJ?9I 99EH:?D= JE J>; 97I; IJK:O E<
"EM7 IJ7J; J>; ,B;L;B 9HEF 79H;7=; E< J>; C79>?D;B;7HD;: H;IKBJ ?I
>?=>BO 9EHH;B7J;: +  M?J> J>; E<Y9?7B IJ7J?IJ?9I EDI?:;H?D= J>;
9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7F ?I =;D;H7J;: M?J>EKJ 7DO ?DI;7IED I7J;BB?J; ?C7=;I
EH ?DY;B: IKHL;OI J>; F;H<EHC7D9; E< J>; FHEFEI;: FH;:?9J?ED CE:;B ?I
I7J?I<79JEHO
"D J>; <KJKH; M; M?BB ?CFHEL; J>; FHEFEI;: <H7C;MEHA 7D: J;IJ
CEH; IJ7J;E<J>;7HJ D;KH7B D;JMEHAI M?J> CEH; 9HEF JOF;I EJ>;H J>7D
9EHD 7D: IEO8;7DI "D 7::?J?ED M; M?BB KI; J>; C79>?D;B;7HD;:
9HEF FB7DJ?D= C7F 7I J>; H;<;H;D9; :7J7 JE 9ED:K9J ?DI;7IED 9HEF JOF;
9B7II?Y97J?ED ED9; J>; ?DI;7IED I7J;BB?J; ?C7=;I 8;9EC; 7L7?B78B;
Acknowledgment
->?I H;I;7H9> ?I IKFFEHJ;: 8O 7 =H7DJ <HEC '7J?ED7B ,9?;D9; EKD:7
J?ED "'0, FHE=H7C  H7DJ  ', )" H %?F?D= ? ->;
7KJ>EHI MEKB: B?A; JE J>7DA JME 7DEDOCEKI H;L?;M;HI <EH J>;?H L7BK78B;
7D: 9EDIJHK9J?L; 9ECC;DJI
References
KH879>;H # 788;HJ ,  ;D;H7J?D= 9HEF I;GK;D9;I ?D B7D:KI; CE:;BI KI
?D= C7N?CKC ;DJHEFO 7D: &7HAEL 9>7?DI =H?9 ,OIJ  – :E?
@7=IO
;B=?K & I?BB?A (  ,;DJ?D;B 9HEFB7D: C7FF?D= KI?D= F?N;B87I;: 7D: E8
@;9J87I;: J?C;M;?=>J;: :OD7C?9 J?C; M7HF?D= 7D7BOI?I +;CEJ; ,;DI DL?HED 
– :E?@HI;
EBJED $ H?;:B &  EH;97IJ?D= 9HEF O?;B: KI?D= H;CEJ;BO I;DI;: L;=;J7J?ED
?D:?9;I 7D: 9HEF F>;DEBE=O C;JH?9I =H?9 EH &;J;EHEB  – :E?
@7=H<EHC;J
EHO7D  27D= 3 &K;BB;H + H7?= &  &ED?JEH?D= ., 7=H?9KBJKH; J>; ., :;
F7HJC;DJ E< 7=H?9KBJKH; D7J?ED7B 7=H?9KBJKH7B IJ7J?IJ?9I I;HL?9; 9HEFB7D: :7J7 B7O;H
FHE=H7C ;E97HJE "DJ  – :E?
HEMD &  +;CEJ; I;DI?D= J;9>DEBE=O 7D: B7D: KI; 7D7BOI?I ?D <EE: I;9KH?JO 7I
I;IIC;DJ # %7D: .I; ,9?  – :E?1
>;D 2+ >7E $ $?C &,  &79>?D; L?I?ED J;9>DEBE=O <EH 7=H?9KBJKH7B 7FFB?97
J?EDI ECFKJ B;9JHED =H?9  – :E?,1
E>;D #   9E;<Y9?;DJ E< 7=H;;C;DJ <EH DEC?D7B I97B;I :K9 )IO9>EB &;7IKH 
– :E?
EHD;H +# ;M7D & >7AC7 ,  &ED?JEH?D= 7D: )H;:?9J?ED E< %7D:.I;
7D: %7D:EL;H %.% >7D=; "D ;M7D  EHD;H + :I >7A7 &;=79
?JO ;EIF7J?7B );HIF;9J?L;I ED .H87D?I7J?ED DL?HEDC;DJ 7D: !;7BJ> ,FH?D=;H ;
E=H7F>O ,FH?D=;H ';J>;HB7D:I EH:H;9>J FF – >JJFI:E?EH=
6
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&E:;BB?D= E< 9HEF =HEMJ> 9ED:?J?EDI 7D: 9HEF O?;B: ?D )EB7D: KI?D= /!++87I;: ?D
:?9;I "DJ # +;CEJ; ,;DI  – :E?
7>7B  0OB?;  !EM7H:   +7F?: 9HEF 9EL;H C7FF?D= <EH J>; 9EDJ;HC?DEKI
.D?J;: ,J7J;I ,9? +;F   :E?IM
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ZEE: 9HEF BEII 7II;IIC;DJ 9O8;HI;HL?9; IOIJ;C <EH IKFFEHJ?D= 9HEF IJ7J?IJ?9I 7D:
?DIKH7D9; :;9?I?EDC7A?D= # "DJ;=H7J?L; =H?9  – :E?
,
EH7?IM7CO ) &EKB?D , EEA )0 ,J;HD   HEF O?;B: 7II;IIC;DJ <HEC
H;CEJ; I;DI?D= )>EJE=H7CC D= +;CEJ; ,;DI  – :E?
)+,
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:7J7 )>EJE=H7CC D= +;CEJ; ,;DI .D?J;: ,J7J;I  
EE:O &  %7D: 9EL;H 9B7II?Y97J?ED 8O 7D 7HJ?Y9?7B D;KH7B D;JMEHA M?J> 7D9?BB7HO
?D<EHC7J?ED "DJ # ;E=H "D< ,OIJ  – :E?
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J?Y97J?ED KI?D= L;?D CEHF>EBE=?97B F7JJ;HDI ECFKJ B;9JHED =H?9  –
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:;J;9J?ED 7D: FH;:?9J?ED ?D J>; DEHJ>M;IJ;HD 9E7IJ7B :;I;HJ E< =OFJ KI?D=
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F;;H@
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UNCORRECTED PROOF
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,7>7@F7B + 3>7D= 1 "P7KHH7B:; + ;B<7D: " !KHJJ   ":;DJ?<O?D= H;FH;
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,;;B7D ,$ %7=K;JJ; , 7I7:O & ,;?;BIJ7:   +;CEJ; I;DI?D= 7FFB?
97J?EDI <EH FH;9?I?ED 7=H?9KBJKH;  B;7HD?D= 9ECCKD?JO 7FFHE79> +;CEJ; ,;DI
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@HI;
,>7D # !KII7?D  $?C $ ?;>B %  BEE: C7FF?D= M?J> I7J;BB?J; ?C7=;I 7D:
?JI M;8 I;HL?9; )>EJE=H7CC D= +;CEJ; ,;DI 
,>H;IJ>7 + ? % 2K   $7D= % ,>7E 2 7? 2  +;=H;II?ED CE:;B JE ;IJ?
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"DJ;=H =H?9  – :E?,
,?D=> ,$ &KIJ7A , ,H?L7IJ7L7 )$ ,P78U , "IB7C -  )H;:?9J?D= IF7J?7B 7D:
:;97:7B %.% 9>7D=;I J>HEK=> 9;BBKB7H 7KJEC7J7 &7HAEL 9>7?D CE:;BI KI?D= ;7HJ>
E8I;HL7J?ED :7J7I;JI 7D: =;E?D<EHC7J?ED DL?HED )HE9;II  – :E?
IN
,A7AKD , H7D9>  /;HCEJ;  +E=;H # ;9A;H+;I>;< " #KIJ?9;  $KIIKB '
 7HBO I;7IED B7H=;7H;7 M?DJ;H 9HEF C7FF?D= KI?D= &(", '/" :7J7 =HEM?D=
:;=H;; :7OI ?D<EHC7J?ED 7D: 7 7KII?7D C?NJKH; CE:;B +;CEJ; ,;DI DL?HED 
– :E?@HI;
,KHA7D # ? %  7IJ JH7?D78B; F7JJ;HD 9B7II?Y97J?ED 8O 7 CE:?Y97J?ED E<
$7D;HL7’I ,& CE:;B "D "DJ;HD7J?ED7B  #E?DJ ED<;H;D9; ED ';KH7B ';JMEHAI
)H;I;DJ;: 7J J>; "DJ;HD7J?ED7B  #E?DJ ED<;H;D9; ED ';KH7B ';JMEHAI LEB FF
– >JJFI:E?EH="#''
-;7B +$ -K87D7  ?HC7 $ H;;C7D $0 HD7BB  07BI> ( +7KD 0+
 "DI;7IED FH;:?9J?ED E< 9EHD =H7?D O?;B: FEJ;DJ?7B KI?D= DEHC7B?P;: :?<<;H;D9;
L;=;J7J?ED ?D:;N =HED #  – :E?7=HED@
->;DA787?B ) %OED #  -KHH7B ! ?H7:7H  %OED #  -KHH7B ! ?H7:7H  
+;CEJ; ,;DI?D= E< BE87B HEFB7D:I <EH EE: ,;9KH?JO + )H;II >JJFI:E?EH=

., ',,  HEF,97F; 7D: HEFB7D: 7J7 %7O;HI  *I 4000 E9KC;DJ5
>JJFIMMMD7IIKI:7=EL+;I;7H9>67D:6,9?;D9;HEFB7D:I7HI<7GIF>F 799;II;:

/7K:EKH  'E?HEJEIIED ) &;C8H?L; (  7HBOI;7IED C7FF?D= E< 9HEFI 7D:
9KBJKH7B EF;H7J?EDI KI?D= L;HO >?=> IF7J?7B H;IEBKJ?ED )BS?7:;I ?C7=;I "DJ # FFB
7HJ> (8I ;E?D<  – :E?@@7=
0?;=7D: % +?9>7H:IED # I9E87H  ;H8;HC7DD !  /;=;J7J?ED ?D
:?9;I ?D 9HEF 7II;IIC;DJI +;CEJ; ,;DI DL?HED  – :E?
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

UNCORRECTED PROOF
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1?7E 2 &?=DEB;J  &7H? # ;DETJ &  &E:;B?D= J>; IF7J?7B :?IJH?8KJ?ED E<
9HEF I;GK;D9;I 7J 7 B7H=; H;=?ED7B I97B; KI?D= B7D:9EL;H IKHL;O :7J7 7 97I; <HEC
H7D9; ECFKJ B;9JHED =H?9  – :E?@9ECF7=
1K 1 K 3 3>7D= !  "DJ;=H7J?D= J>; IOIJ;C :OD7C?9 7D: 9;BBKB7H 7KJEC7J7
CE:;BI JE FH;:?9J B7D: KI; 7D: B7D: 9EL;H 9>7D=; "DJ # FFB 7HJ> (8I ;E?D< 
– :E?@@7=
27=9? % ? % ;D= &  ->; ;<<;9J E< 9EHD–IEO8;7D HEJ7J?ED ED J>; '/"87I;:
:HEK=>J ?D:?97JEHI 7 97I; IJK:O ?D "EM7 ., KI?D= /;=;J7J?ED ED:?J?ED "D:;N "
,9?;D9; +;CEJ; ,;DI  – :E?
27D= 3 0K 0 ? % RIJWD:7]   +;CEJ; I;DI?D= <EH 7=H?9KBJKH7B 7FFB?97J?EDI
# "DJ;=H =H?9  – :E?,
2EI>?:7 - (C7JK ,  ';KH7B D;JMEHA 7FFHE79> JE B7D: 9EL;H C7FF?D= "
-H7DI ;EI9? +;CEJ; ,;DI  – :E?
3>7D=  ? % %?D % KE % 7 NJH79J?D= JHKIJ;: F?N;BI <HEC >?IJEH
?97B 9HEFB7D: :7J7 B7O;H KI?D= 9HEF HEJ7J?ED F7JJ;HDI 7 97I; IJK:O ?D ';8H7IA7
., "D  J> "DJ;HD7J?ED7B ED<;H;D9; ED =HE ;E?D<EHC7J?9I =HE ;E?D
<EHC7J?9I )H;I;DJ;: 7J J>;  J> "DJ;HD7J?ED7B ED<;H;D9; ED =HE ;E?D<EH
C7J?9I =HE ;E?D<EHC7J?9I FF – >JJFI:E?EH==HE ;E?D<EHC7J
?9I
3>7D=  ? % 27D= 3 %?D % 2K   2K 3 +7>C7D &, 3>7E !  BEK:
;DL?HEDC;DJ <EH :?II;C?D7J?D= ',, 9HEFB7D: :7J7 B7O;H "D  J> "DJ;HD7J?ED7B
ED<;H;D9; ED =HE ;E?D<EHC7J?9I =HE ;E?D<EHC7J?9I )H;I;DJ;: 7J J>; 
J> "DJ;HD7J?ED7B ED<;H;D9; ED =HE ;E?D<EHC7J?9I =HE ;E?D<EHC7J?9I FF –
:E?=HE ;E?D<EHC7J?9I 
3>ED= % !K % 3>EK !  ;;F B;7HD?D= 87I;: CKBJ?J;CFEH7B 9HEF 9B7II?Y97J?ED
+;CEJ; ,;DI DL?HED  – :E?@HI;
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