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Proof that the sun, not CO2, drives climate- & sea-level change
Dr Roger Higgs DPhil (geology, Oxford, 1986), Geoclastica Ltd, UK
Technical Note 2019-19, 1st Nov 2019, amended 23rd October 2020 Slide 1 of 13
Introduction: five clinchers ...
1) Earth has warmed 1.3 degrees centigrade since 1850, in ‘saw-tooth’ fashion, i.e. interrupted by
two 30-year coolings. CO2 instead increased much more smoothly.
See Slide 2
2) Warmings & coolings since 1850 do match rises & falls in solar magnetic output (governing
cloudiness via the Svensmark effect), but lag behind ~58yrs due to ocean thermal inertia (slowness
of mixing).
Slide 3
3) The just-ended solar ‘Grand Maximum’ (1937-2004), the strongest in >1,000 years, explains
modern global warming (lagging ~58yr). Solar magnetic output more than doubled, 1901-1995.
Slide 4
4) Disproving IPCC’s claims that the 30cm sea-level (SL) rise since 1800 is the highest in >2,000yrs so
the causative warming must be man-made (CO2), geology & archaeology prove four SL rises of 1-3
metres between 1,000 to 6,000 years ago (famous Fairbridge SL curve of 1961, updated 1976, 1977),
each very rapid (<200yr). All four correlate with solar Grand Maxima. CO2 was very low.
Slide 5
5) The latest of these ‘Fairbridge-type’ SL rises, ~3 metres in <100yrs (~350-450AD), just after a solar
GM like the modern one (ended 2004), is spectacularly verified by visually impactful & superbly
dated English archaeological evidence unearthed post-Fairbridge.
Slides 6-11 !"#$!%&##'(%")*+&,-."*/
Sun not CO2 causes global warming & sea-level change - Slide 2 of 13
Clincher 1 - ‘Saw-tooth’ style of global warming since 1850 (start of
worldwide thermometer recordings; start of industrial revolution)
does not match CO2’s much smoother rise
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1 deg C
1880-1910
cooling ...
... but CO2
rising
Warming
1.3 deg C
in 100yrs
Global average temperature (sea & land)
Time
CO2 Bold red =
atmosphere,
Hawaii
CO2 declined 1ppm 1940-45, from 311.3 to 310.3ppm (due
to cooling ocean’s increasing CO2 solubility, temporarily
outweighing man’s atmospheric additions?)
1943-75
cooling ...
... but CO2
rising again
from 1945
(start of post-war
construction
boom)
Plot by sealevel.info
Pale red line = Antarctica ice cores.
NASA data from Etheridge et al.
1996. Dating accuracy +/- 2yrs
Sun not CO2 causes global warming & sea-level change - Slide 3 of 13
Clincher 2 - Global warming since 1850 (Chart D) does match saw-tooth rise
in sun’s magnetic output, with 58-year lag due to ocean thermal inertia
Blue = Be10, Greenland ice core
Red = Group Sunspot Number (conventional;
Hoyt & Schatten 1998)
Modern solar
‘Grand Maximum’
1937-2004
A. Sun’s activity based on two proxies
R. A. Rohde, Wiki
Little Ice
Age nadir
C. Sun’s magnetic output
as indicated by cosmic ray observations
(began 1957) Yanke et al. 2019
2019%
Solar magnetic
decline since 1991,
thus increasing
cosmic rays/
cloudiness
(Svensmark effect)
1991%
B. Sun’s magnetic output
Lockwood et al. 1999
1991%
Sun’s magnetic
peak, 1991
Temp. lag = 58yr behind Sun
(cf. my Tech. Notes 2019-17 & 2020-5)
Slant indicates lag was
previously longer
E. World average surface temp.
HadCRUT NB changes in global sea-surface
temp. (SST) precede changes in global
surface air temp. (by <3 months; Humlum
et al. 2013), i.e. sun warms/cools ocean, in
turn warming/cooling the atmosphere
Cooling after ~2049
(lagging 58yr behind
Sun’s 1991 magnetic peak)
Global warming
to ~2049 (1991 solar
peak, plus 58yr lag)
Temp. lag = 32yr
behind sea level
!mm!
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1958!
1984!
2016! 2049%
2000-2012 ‘Global warming hiatus’
(Wiki)
1900%
1991%
D. World
sea level
Jevrejeva et al. 2008
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2000!AD!
0!AD!
!
Total solar irradiance since 1000 BC Vieira et al. 2011
275-345AD GM, caused
~3m sea-level rise in
<100yrs (Slide 6)
Modern GM (1937-2004; cf. Slide 3),
the first in >1,500yr & strongest in
>10,000yr (see my Tech. Note 2020-4)
Sun not CO2 causes global warming & sea-level change - Slide 4 of 13
Clincher 3 - The sun’s strongest ‘Grand Maximum’ (GM)
in >10,000 years has just ended (1937-2004)
Reconstructed sunspot number since 10000 BC Solanki et al. 2004
2000!AD!
0!AD!
10000!BC!
Why do they correlate? Each solar Grand Maximum ‘overwarmed’ the ocean (hence atmosphere too; my Technical Note 2019-12),
raising SL by polar-ice melt decades later (subordinate ocean-water expansion). Each rise was followed by an intrinsic metre-scale
rapid SL fall ... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342379594
NB such solar-driven rapid SL rises & falls are also the only viable explanation for the enigmatic cyclicity of ‘foreland-flysch’
sedimentary rocks ... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/299744364
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Sun not CO2 causes global warming & sea-level change - Slide 5 of 13
Clincher 4 - Rapid sea-level (SL) rises of 1-3 metres between
1,000 & 6,000 years ago correlate with solar Grand Maxima
Grand Maximum threshold
Sun’s
output
Solar output based on C14 in tree rings & Be10 in ice cores, Wu et al. 2018 Red = Royal Observatory
of Belgium ‘corrected’
sunspot graph; inflates
this late 1700s peak
(contrast Slide 3, red
graph), making the next
peak (modern) seem less
exceptional
10m!
/me!
Sea
level Box = modern
solar Grand
Maximum
1937-2004
Predicted
imminent ~3m SL
rise this century !
2000%%AD%
Time
4000%%BC%
World mean
SL today
World sea level from geological shoreline
benchmarks worldwide, Fairbridge 1961
NB vintage radiocarbon accuracy +/-200yr
‘Romano-British Transgression’
See Slides 6-11
BC%%AD%
/Slant of red lines is due to time-lag (cf. Slide 3) caused by ocean
thermal inertia & circulation, delaying arrival of solar-overwarmed
ocean water at Antarctica, where it induces ice-sheet-rim collapse
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/316601390
Godwin’s (1943) ‘Romano-British Transgression’ (RBT), ~3m in <100yrs*, reached ~1.5m above today’s SL
RBT spanned ~350-450AD, based on the cumulative English archaeological evidence (e.g. Slides 7-11; see also
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342379594). This is about mid-way between Fairbridge’s two
estimates (1961, 1976; SL curve above & Slide 5; NB C14 dating accuracy +/- 200 years). Thus RBT explains
enigmatic Anglo-Saxon migration to Britain, ~410-450AD, the birth of the English nation.
RBT began near the end of the sun’s 275-345AD Grand Maximum (Slides 4, 5), long before industrial CO2
emissions began ~1850.
IPCC ignores (i) Fairbridge’s SL curve (based on copious global geological data), and (ii) the similar Siddall et al.
2003 (https://www.nature.com/articles/nature01690) global SL curve (based on an entirely different method) and
(iii) very supportive archaeological data (e.g. Slides 7-11). Instead IPCC uses cherry-picked flawed evidence (my
Tech. Note 2019-18) to argue the 30-centimetre SL rise since 1800AD is unique in >2,000yr & thus must be man-
made (CO2).
*cf. Blanchon (2009), 2-3m SL rise in <50 years in the last ‘interglacial’ period
World sea level, Fairbridge 1976 update of 1961 version (see Slide 5)
3m%
1950%AD%
50%BC%
Today’s%sea%level%
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Sun not CO2 causes global warming & sea-level change - Slide 6 of 13
Clincher 5 - English archaeology spectacularly confirms
latest ‘Fairbridge-type’ sea-level (SL) rise
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Map data ©2019 Google
20 km
English
Channel
3. Pevensey
Roman fort &
Norman castle
2. Portchester
Roman fort &
Norman castle
20 km
1. Londinium
Roman city
Three of many English
archaeological
examples ...
NB In next 4 slides, elevations above SL are corrected for southern England
GPS-measured glacio-isostatic subsidence of 1mm/yr (Hansen et al. 2012)
Sun not CO2 causes global warming & sea-level change - Slide 7 of 13
Clincher 5 cont’d - English archaeology confirms latest
‘Fairbridge-type’ sea-level rise
%
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Sun not CO2 causes global warming & sea-level change - Slide 8 of 13
Clincher 5 cont’d - English archaeology confirms latest ‘Fairbridge-type’
sea-level (SL) rise, ~3 metres, ~350-450AD
Evidence for the ‘Romano-British Transgression’ (Slide 6), rapid
multi-metre SL rise, underway by ~350AD:
1. A drain tunnel (culvert; green) ~0.5m above the 300AD wall’s base,
was plugged with rubble, including Roman tile & 4th C pottery.
Interpretation: deliberate attempt to prevent estuary-water ingress due to SL
rise, i.e. spring tides reached this high by 400AD.
cf. Brigham 1990: "the river level could hardly have risen almost 2 m in half a
century”. Yes it could! ... see Slide 6, Blanchon reference.
2. The ~300AD wall’s eastern end (at Tower of London) was rebuilt 7m
landward, higher up the estuary flank, ~400AD (Parnell 1978).
Interpretation: SL rise in progress by ~350AD.
3. A flow-eroded notch (red) reaches 1.3m up wall, sealed by
pre-1300AD reclamation dumpings.
Interpretation: at the peak of transgression (RBT highstand), spring tides
reached up the wall, to the top of the notch or higher.
1m%OD%
Excavated still-erect 300AD estuary-facing wall
Hill et al. 1980
flow-
eroded
notch!
Example!1a:!!Londinium!Roman!city!
3m%
World sea level Fairbridge 1976
south%
Thames
estuary
250AD:
High tide.
Low tide (erroneous? -
quay could not be
constructed under water?)
Successive Roman waterfronts
descend 1.3m (red circles)
300AD defensive wall (cf. Slide 8)
is outboard of early waterfronts! OD = Ordnance Datum
= modern Mean Sea Level (MSL)
revetment
125AD revetment
150AD quay
250AD
2m%
Sun not CO2 causes global warming & sea-level change - Slide 9 of 13
Clincher 5 cont’d - English archaeology confirms last ‘Fairbridge-type’
sea-level (SL) rise
Example 1b: Londinium Roman city, evidence of preceding ~1.3-metre
SL fall ~125-250AD (despite S England subsidence of ~1mm/yr, Hansen et al. 2012)
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3m%
‘Roman Emergence’ (Fairbridge 1976) 2m SL fall
Sea
level
World sea level Fairbridge 1976 Time
Excavated Londonium waterfront N-S cross section Milne 1995 after Milne 1985
quay
100AD
Evidence for rapid multi-metre SL rise, underway by ~350AD:
1. South wall collapsed (red; note tumbled slabs) & ground below (& behind) has
slumped southward. Interpretation: SL rise caused storm waves to undercut the wall.
2. A culvert (drain tunnel) through the base of north wall was “loosely blocked” with
rubble, soil & animal bones. Interpretation: “The general appearance ... suggested that the
drain had become blocked at an early date, soon after the building of the wall”. Drain blocked
deliberately to prevent sea water entry caused by rising SL? cf. culvert in Slide 8.
3. A Roman water-well was converted to a rubbish pit after < ~100 years (fill includes
Roman pottery), before 410AD final Roman withdrawal from Britain.
Interpretation: rapid SL rise caused rising salt water in the well.
4. The well mouth was buried by 2.4m “soil” & inner end of culvert by 3m of rubbly
earthy material. Interpretation: ground inside the fort was raised by immediate post-Roman
occupants (Romano-British and/or Saxons), against sea-water entry at high tide.
5.Excavations found a 13th century boat-quay 300m E of castle. Interpretation: SL had
fallen by then.
6. Today’s shoreline is 1.5 km away, to the SE. Interpretation: SL later fell even more. 0$".,+'1.+/2)34/5$.%6&.+,/7")$/89:;<:;/
Sun not CO2 causes global warming & sea-level change - Slide 10 of 13
Clincher 5 cont’d - English archaeology confirms latest ‘Fairbridge-type’
sea-level (SL) rise, ~3 metres, ~350-450AD
World sea level Fairbridge 1976
3m%
Example 2: Pevensey ~300AD Roman shore-fort
Norman
castle
~1250AD
Roman fort ~300AD
(outer wall only)
THE SEA
(cf. Slide 7)
300AD outer walls
~1130AD priory
Reconstruction ~1150AD, at high spring tide
historicengland.org.uk
Portsmouth
Harbour
High spring
tide (HST) just
touches wall’s
extreme SE
corner
Low spring-tide line
Rubble
causeway?
18th C?
(Cunliffe
pers.
comm.
2000)
Sea-level interpretations:
1) Modern high spring tide (HST; photo, lr right-hand corner) is at least 1m higher
than 300AD HST, after subtracting 1.7m subsidence (1mm/yr; Slide 7). Evidence:
A) Subsidence-corrected bottom of 300AD wall’s 1.5m-deep foundation trench (rubble
filled) is only ~0.7m above modern HST, i.e. trench would have been waterlogged
(penetrated water table) & flooded by waves unless Roman HST was >1m lower.
B) A Roman water-well ~300AD was dug to 7.3m below the fort’s interior ground
surface, i.e. ~4.6m below modern HST after correction for subsidence. Such a deep well
would today tap the coastal salt-water wedge, i.e. 300AD HST must have been lower.
2) 1130AD HST was at least 1m higher than 300AD HST. Evidence:
A) Two-weekly ‘flushing’ of latrines (bottom right) would have required high spring
tide to reach base of wall (as it does today). This was not possible in 300AD (see above).
B) The ~1100AD inner & outer moats (photo) were tidally filled (impossible in 300AD).
C) The basal 1.6m of the water-well’s fill comprised silt & “close-packed bands of flint
nodules”, interpretable as deliberate raising of the well bottom for <100yr (middle & top
yielded two ~450-500AD artefacts), to stay above salt water intruding by sea-level rise.
3) 1130AD SL ~1m higher than modern SL. Evidence:
Unlike 1130AD, modern HST does not quite (dm) reach base of wall below the latrines
(compare photo and sketch), despite subsidence (~0.9m, i.e. 1mm/yr for 900yr). 0$".,+'1.+/2)34/5$.%6&.+,/7")$/89:;<:;/
Sun not CO2 causes global warming & sea-level change - Slide 11 of 13
Clincher 5 cont’d - English archaeology confirms latest ‘Fairbridge-type’
sea-level (SL) rise, ~3 metres, ~350-450AD
3m
World sea level Fairbridge 1976
!Example 3: Portchester ~300AD Roman fort
~1130AD tidally flushed latrine
outfall cut through 300AD wall
Air photo at low spring tide (spring-tide range 4.0m)
~1130AD church
~1100AD castle
Outer wall
= ~300AD
fort
Inner moat
Outer
moat
~1100AD
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Sun not CO2 causes global warming & sea-level change - Slide 12 of 13
Clincher 5 cont’d - English archaeology confirms latest ‘Fairbridge-type’
sea-level (SL) rise, ~3 metres, ~350-450AD
Example 3: Portchester
~300AD Roman fort
(continued)
Reconstruction of a Roman
galley approaching
Portchester fort ~330AD
Artist Peter Dunn, English Heritage https://alchetron.com/Classis-Britannica
Presumed Roman
wharf, near 300AD
high-tide line. No
remains are known.
Perhaps erosionally
truncated pilings
are buried under
intertidal mud
& the recent rubble
causeway (Slide 11).
Presumed causeway serving wharf
(cf. later causeway, Slide 11)
Presumed high
spring tide 300AD
1100AD latrine outfall
(Slide 11, bottom right)
Low spring
tide today
(cf. Slide 11)
High spring tide
1100AD & today
NB ...
Modern spring-tide range = 4.0m
Subsidence since 300AD = ~1.7m
(1mm/yr for 1700yr)
1. ‘Saw-tooth’ global warming since 1850 was driven by changes in solar magnetic output (governs
cloudiness; Svensmark theory).
2. Global warming lags ~58 years behind solar changes, due to the ocean’s thermal inertia (my
Tech. Note 2019-11, Bullet Points 21, 22). Thus, even though the sun has weakened since 1991,
warming will continue until ~2049.
3.Similarly lagging behind the Sun, sea level will continue to rise, drastically accelerating
within the next 10-20 years, rising to ~3m above present by 2100
... see my https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342379594
4. Global cooling will start ~2049 and will last at least 28 years (corresponding to the 28 years of
solar decline from 1991 to date [2019]).
5. By sheer fluke, rising industrial CO2 emissions (from ~1850) happened to coincide with sun-
driven global warming. CO2 plays no part in the warming (Tech. Note 2019-11).
6. Protesting global warming (Greenpeace, Extinction Rebellion, etc.) is as absurd as demanding the
government do something about the length of daylight or the distance to Mars.
7. IPCC is guilty of the two greatest scientific blunders of all time, costing society trillions of
wasted dollars ‘tackling’ innocent CO2:
i) dismissal of overwhelming global evidence for recent 1 to 3 metre sea-level rises, arguing instead
that the 30 centimetre rise since 1800 is unique in >2,000 years & thus must be man-made (CO2);
ii) failure to notice the time lag between changes in solar output & global warming/cooling.
email rogerhiggs@hotmail.com for literature sources or to book a lecture 0$".,+'1.+/2)34/5$.%6&.+,/7")$/89:;<:;/
Sun not CO2 causes global warming & sea-level change - Slide 13 of 13
CONCLUSIONS