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Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Urbanization and Cropland in the Nile Delta of Egypt Using Machine Learning and Satellite Big Data: Implications for Sustainable Development

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Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
Authors:
Nasem Badreldin at University of Manitoba
Nasem Badreldin
Assem Abu Hatab at Nordic Africa Institute
Assem Abu Hatab
Carl Johan Lagerkvist at Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Carl Johan Lagerkvist
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Abstract and Figures

The Nile Delta of Egypt is increasingly facing sustainability threats, due to a combination of nature- and human-induced changes in land cover and land use. In this paper, an analysis of big time-series data from remotely sensed satellite images and the Random Forests classifier was undertaken to assess the spatial and temporal dynamics of urbanization and cropland in the Nile Delta between 2007 and 2017. Out of thirteen variables, five spectral indices were chosen to build 500 decision trees, with a resulting overall accuracy average of 91.9±1.5%. The results revealed that the urban extent in the Nile Delta has increased, between 2007 and 2017, by 592.4 km2 (1.92%). Particularly, the results indicated that the years 2011 and 2012, which coincided the 2011 political uprising in Egypt, so-called "the Arab Spring", were associated with significant land-use changes in the Nile Delta, both in rate and scale. As a result, the cropland area in the region decreased between 2010 and 2011 by 1.63% (502.21 km2). Moreover, the results showed that during the period 2012-2017, the mean annual urbanization rate in the region stood at 60 km2 /year. In contrast, croplands decreased during the same period at an average annual rate of 2 km2 /year. At the governorates' level, the results suggested that top agricultural producing governorates in the Nile Delta, such as Elmonoufia, Elkalubia, Elbouhyra, and Elghrbia, witnessed the highest rates of decrease in cropland areas during the period 2012-2017. Over the same period, urban areas increased the most in Elkalubia, Domiate, and Elmonoufia by 1.98%, 1.72% and 1.34%, respectively. The findings from this analysis are discussed along with their implications for sustainable land-use and urban planning policies.
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Spatiotemporal dynamics of urbanization and cropland
in the Nile Delta of Egypt using machine learning
and satellite big data: implications for sustainable
development
Nasem Badreldin &Assem Abu Hatab &
Carl-Johan Lagerkvist
Received: 22 May 2019 /Accepted: 29 October 2019
#Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019
Abstract The Nile Delta of Egypt is increasingly facing
sustainability threats, due to a combination of nature-
and human-induced changes in land cover and land use.
In this paper, an analysis of big time series data from
remotely sensed satellite images and the random forests
classifier was undertaken to assess the spatial and tem-
poral dynamics of urbanization and cropland in the Nile
Delta between 2007 and 2017. Out of thirteen variables,
five spectral indices were chosen to build 500 decision
trees, with a resulting overall accuracy average of 91.9 ±
1.5%. The results revealed that the urban extent in the
Nile Delta has increased, between 2007 and 2017, by
592.4 km
2
(1.92%). Particularly, the results indicated
that the years 2011 and 2012, which coincided the 2011
political uprising in Egypt, so-called the Arab Spring,
were associated with significant land-use changes in the
Nile Delta, both in rate and scale. As a result, the
cropland area in the region decreased between 2010
and 2011 by 1.63% (502.21 km
2
). Moreover, the results
showed that during the period 2012–2017, the mean
annual urbanization rate in the region stood at 60 km
2
/
year. In contrast, croplands decreased during the same
period at an average annual rate of 2 km
2
/year. At the
governorates’level, the results suggested that top agri-
cultural producing governorates in the Nile Delta, such
as Elmonoufia, Elkalubia, Elbouhyra, and Elghrbia,
witnessed the highest rates of decrease in cropland areas
during the period 2012–2017. Over the same period,
urban areas increased the most in Elkalubia, Domiate,
and Elmonoufia by 1.98%, 1.72%, and 1.34%, respec-
tively. The f indings from this analysis are discussed
along with their implications for sustainable land-use
and urban planning policies.
Keywords LULC .Urbanization .Big data .Nile Delta .
Random forests .Sustainable development
Introduction
By 2050, nearly 68% of the world population will reside
in metropolitan centers, up from 55% in 2016
(UNDESA 2018). Projections suggest that around
90% of this urban expansion will occur in countries
and cities in Africa and Asia, two continents where the
largest numbers of poor and undernourished people are
concentrated (Clos, 2016). In this sense, urbanization is
expected to become a key driver for future land use land
cover (LULC) changes, and a major influencing factor
of the socioeconomic and environmental landscapes in
developing countries (He et al., 2013;Kleemannetal.,
2017). In this regard, Bratley and Ghoneim (2018)show
that rapid urbanization processes significantly alert the
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-019-7934-x
N. Badreldin (*)
Department of Soil Science, University of Manitoba, 13 Freedman
Crescent, Winnipeg R3T 2N2 Manitoba, Canada
e-mail: nasem.badreldin@umanitoba.ca
A. Abu Hatab :C.<J. Lagerkvist
Department of Economics, The Swedish University of
Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
A. Abu Hatab
Department of Economics and Rural Development, Arish
University, Arish, Egypt
Environ Monit Assess (2019) 191: 767
/ Published online: 23 November 2019
Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved.
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  • Jul 2018
  • JSTPM
ABSTRACT Purpose – This paper queries the scientific debate related to a new generation of policy-aware smart cities research geared towards innovation and sustainable inclusive socio-economic growth and development. It summarizes the rationale behind the relevant JSTPM Special Issue and its overall objective to serve as a reference for policymakers, educators, practitioners, government and think-tank officers interested in the emerging topics in smart cities research. Design/methodology/approach – This paper examines the state of the art of smart cities research and provides an overview of papers included in the special issue. The approach is related to meta-desktop research aiming to reveal the key contributions and open research issues related to policymaking for smart cities research. Findings – This paper makes a case for opening the smart cities concept to a new generation of sophisticated ICT-enabled solutions. It is argued that more structured and output-oriented dialogue among a variety of stakeholders is needed, and that the debate needs to focus on new sustainable, global, and socially aware polices for research on smart cities, smart regions, and smart clusters. To this end, greater attention needs to be paid to emerging technologies, such as the Internet of Things, Cognitive Computing, Advanced Analytics and Business Intelligence, 5G networks, anticipatory and context-aware computing, and advanced distributed-data warehouse platforms. Research limitations/implications – This editorial introduces the debate that unfolds in the Special Issue. It also highlights how this debate could be enriched by means of international collaboration and scientific dialogue. Practical implications – By highlighting the variety of research related to smart cities policymaking, this paper offers a typology of the services and applications that target data-driven policymaking at the micro-, mezzo-, and macro-levels. Social Implications – This paper argues that sustainability and innovation are two integral aspects of the same social challenge. The integration of sophisticated technological platforms and advanced policies requires a new managerial paradigm at all levels of decision-making across and beyond continents and local boundaries. Originality/value – This Special Issue is one of the first attempts worldwide to discuss the socially aware policymaking process as an inevitable part of smart cities research. Keywords – smart cities, policymaking, socially inclusive economic growth, sustainability, technology policymaking, social innovation Paper type – editorial / conceptual paper
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Modification of the association between high ambient temperature and health by urban microclimate indicators: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Article
  • Nov 2017
  • ENVIRON RES
Background: Landscape characteristics, including vegetation and impervious surfaces, influence urban microclimates and may lead to within-city differences in the adverse health effects of high ambient temperatures. Objective: Our objective was to quantitatively summarize the epidemiologic literature that assessed microclimate indicators as effect measure modifiers (EMM) of the association between ambient temperature and mortality or morbidity. Methods: We systematically identified papers and abstracted relative risk estimates for hot and cool microclimate indicator strata. We calculated the ratio of the relative risks (RRR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) to assess differences in health effects across strata, and pooled the RRR estimates using random effects meta-analyses. Results: Eleven papers were retained. In the pooled analyses, people living in hotter areas within cities (based on land surface temperature or modeled estimates of air temperature) had 6% higher risk of mortality/morbidity compared to those in cooler areas (95% CI: 1.03-1.09). Those living in less vegetated areas had 5% higher risk compared to those living in more vegetated areas (95% CI: 1.00-1.11). Discussion: There is epidemiologic evidence that those living in hotter, and less vegetated areas of cities have higher risk of morbidity or mortality from higher ambient temperature. Further research with improved assessment of landscape characteristics and investigation of the joint effects of physiologic adaptation and landscape will advance the current understanding. Conclusion: This review provides quantitative evidence that intra-urban differences in landscape characteristics and micro-urban heat islands contribute to within-city variability in the health effects of high ambient temperatures.
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