The study of macroscopic traffic features, such as flow, speed and travel time is essential to the understanding of the freeway and arterial road traffic. However, modeling the temporal evolution of these features and the relationship between them is difficult, especially for arterial roads, where the process of traffic change is driven by a variety of factors. The introduction of the Bluetooth
... [Show full abstract] technology into the transportation area has proven exceptionally useful in this pursuit, as it allows direct measurement of two important features, that is, travel time and traffic demand.
In this work, we propose an approach based on a simple Bayesian network for analyzing and predicting the complex dynamics of flow or volume, based on travel time observations from Bluetooth sensors. The spatio-temporal relationship between volume and travel time is captured through a first-order transition model, and a Gaussian sensor model. The two models are trained and tested on travel time and volume data from an arterial link. To reduce the computational costs of the inference tasks, volume is discretized through Self-Organizing Maps.
Preliminary results show that the Bayesian network proposed can effectively estimate and predict the complex dynamics of arterial volume and travel time. Not only is the model well suited to produce posterior distributions over single past, current and future volume values; but it also allows estimating the joint distributions, over sequences of volume values. Furthermore, the Bayesian network can achieve excellent prediction, even when the stream of travel time observation is partially incomplete.