Conference Paper

Progress In Probabilistic Assessment of Destructive Entry

Authors:
  • Fluid Gravity Engineering Ltd
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Abstract

Destructive re-entry is a highly complex, inherently stochastic process, and the attempts to represent it in simulations are subject to very high levels of uncertainty. Space debris mitigation guidelines, however, require that the ground casualty risk from spacecraft re-entry is quantified, and design changes can be required if the risks are too high. Given the limited agreement in the casualty risk predictions between the different methods, this implies difficulties in providing confidence in risk assessments. This work aims to capture the major uncertainties in re-entry, such that the risks can be assessed probabilistically, with particular regard to capturing the impact of design for demise changes.

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