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The Future of Vehicle Electrification in India May Ride on Two Wheels

Authors:
  • And Battery Aero
The Future of Vehicle Electrication in India
May Ride on Two Wheels
An enormous global eort is directed toward the
electrication of transportation.
1
While the majority
of the eort is focused on passenger sedans,
1
there are
two important and natural next steps: (i) larger vehicles (e.g.,
pick-up trucks and semitrucks) and (ii) smaller vehicles like
two-wheelers (2-Ws) and 3-wheelers. China is currently the
largest market for 2-Ws followed by India where two-wheelers
account for 70% of the 200 million total vehicles on the
road.
2,3
Furthermore, 2-Ws in India are responsible for over
20% of the total CO2emissions and about 30% of the
particulate emissions in urban areas (PM2.5).
2
In this context,
there is an urgent need to mitigate the emissions in urban areas
as 7 of the 10 most polluted cities in the world are in India.
4
The electrication of two-wheelers presents an enormous
opportunity to downscale CO2emissions and improve air
quality in densely populated cities. Following a rst-principles
approach similar to the analysis of electrication of pick-up
trucks,
5
semitrucks,
6
and eVTOLs,
7
we identify the critical
performance metrics required of batteries required to make
mass-market electric two-wheelers (Figure 1).
The power output from (or input to) the battery pack is
determined using vehicle dynamics given by
i
k
j
j
jy
{
z
z
z
P
tCAvtgmm
v
tvt() 1
2() d
d()
d2
rr total total
ρμ=++
l
m
o
o
o
n
o
o
o
Pt Pt Pt
Pt Pt Pt
() (), () 0
() (), () 0
battery
battery θ
=≥
=<
where P(t) is the propulsive force required to move the vehicle
and P(t)battery is the battery power. The other parameters used
in the system of equations are given in Table 1. The details of
the vehicle dynamics model can be found elsewhere.
5,6
Using
this analysis, we nd that for a range of 100 km, a battery pack
of [2.22.5] kWh is required. The pack would weigh between
12 and 30 kg depending on the cell chemistry.
5
These
estimates are based on the Indian Drive Cycle (IDC), a
velocity-time prole, developed by the Automotive Research
Association of India (ARAI).
8
Real-world conditions, such as
road terrain, elevation, wind, etc., would aect these estimates;
however, for this analysis, such eects have been ignored. The
team at Ather Energy has seen that a battery capacity of 2.4
kWh suces for a range of 107 km (ARAI-IDC) and a real-
world range of >70 km on average. There have been many
cases of customers crossing even the ARAI-IDC predicted
number with the highest recorded range sitting well higher
than 110 km for city travel.
The average daily distance traveled for two-wheelers in
Indian cities is about [2733] km with a maximum of 86 km
and the average annual distance traveled is about 8 800 km
with a maximum of 22 500 km.
9,10
In Figure 2, we examine the
eect of changes in battery specic energy on the pack cost and
range of the vehicle. We observe that while improvements in
specic energy do reduce the cost of the battery pack at longer
ranges, the eect is not as signicant as it is in the case of
electric automobiles, pick-up trucks, or semitrucks.
5,6
Similar to
electric vehicles and semitrucks, electric 2-Ws are likely to face
power and cost challenges, as shown in Figure 1.
Assuming a lifetime of about 10 years for the electric two-
wheelers, the average lifetime chargedischarge cycles
executed by the pack would be about 900 cycles, given the
average annual distance traveled. Most conventional Li-ion
batteries have a cycle life well over this, thereby presenting an
opportunity to use the battery pack in second-life
applications.
11
Batteries after use in electric two-wheelers
contain sucient capacity and residual life to be deployed into
stationary power storage applications like rooftop solar, home
backup solutions, and even power augmentation at public fast-
Received: September 25, 2019
Accepted: October 4, 2019
Figure 1. Schematic illustrating the cost challenge for electric two-
wheelers when compared to the additional energy challenge when
batteries for two-wheelers, automobiles, and semitrucks are
examined together.
Table 1. Various Parameters and Their Respective Values
Used within the Vehicle Dynamics Model to Simulate the
Operation of an Electric Two-Wheeler
parameter value (units)
ρ(density of air) 1.2 (kg/m3)
Cd(drag coecient) 0.6
A(frontal area) 1.25 (m2)
μrr (coecient of rolling resistance) 0.01
mrider (mass of rider) 70 (kg)
mvehicle (mass excluding battery) 170 (kg)
g(acceleration due to gravity) 9.8 (m/s2)
θ(regenerative braking factor) 0.4
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charging stations. The experience at Ather Energy shows that
for most consumers, the usage is low enough that lifetime
charge-discharge cycles of the battery pack in an electric two-
wheeler are of far lower importance when compared to factors
like calendar aging. This makes a case for faster deployment
into second-life markets.
In Figure 3, we examine the reduction in cost required to
achieve initial customer cost parity of electric 2-Ws with ICE 2-
Ws. The initial customer cost for a typical 110 cm3engine ICE
2-W is around 70 000 INR including the motor vehicle road
tax and insurance (assumed to be about 1014% and 818%,
respectively) while that of a comparable electric 2-W is over
100 000 INR even with scal incentives.
13
The rapidly falling price of batteries
14
will reduce the total
cost of the electric two-wheeler; however, to achieve cost parity
with ICE 2-Ws, the ratio of the pack cost to total vehicle cost
also needs to be higher, in addition to a low battery pack price.
A higher pack-to-vehicle cost implies a reduction in the cost of
the rest of the vehicle, which can be achieved through cost-
eective means of either manufacturing or procuring the
various components of the powertrain. The analysis in Figure 3
presents the need for a holistic focus on manufacturing electric
2-Ws to achieve the required reduction in cost on all fronts.
In addition to the powertrain and battery pack-related
aspects discussed in this Viewpoint, there is a need to focus on
home (residential) charging for electric 2-Ws. Data from Ather
Energy shows that 95% of the customers charge at home or at
the workplace while only 5% of the customers charge in public
locations. Furthermore, it is worth highlighting that for the
data collected, the public locations featured charging rates four
times higher than that of the home or workplace chargers.
Because electric 2-Ws tend to be driven for far shorter
distances when compared to electric cars, this ratio is likely to
hold in the future. Therefore, we believe that a policy focus
that enables the establishment of residential charging facilities
would aid the widespread adoption of electric 2-Ws. One
possible approach could be to mandate the access to 5A
sockets in parking locations linked to the electricity meter of
the homeowner thereby solving the problems of access and
trust, which are currently the primary challenges to charging at
residential locations.
As noted earlier, India is in a unique position to drive a
transition in the electrication of two-wheelers, where more
than 75% of the vehicles manufactured are 2-wheelers (with
over 70% of the vehicles currently on the road). As discussed
in this Viewpoint, electric 2-wheelers require relatively small
batteries and minimal public charging infrastructure. This has
led to signicant initiatives that show Indias aspirations to take
a leadership position in the manufacturing of electric 2-Ws.
The Government has launched the Faster Adoption and
Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles II (FAME II) scheme
15
along with the Phased Manufacturing Program (PMP).
16
Under the FAME II scheme, localization norms have been
prescribed for availing direct scal incentives. It is envisaged
that the entire value chain of EVs and their components can be
domestically manufactured. Also, the current union budget has
proposed multiple incentives for setting up manufacturing
facilities of EV components in India along with direct tax
benets to the consumer for purchasing an EV.
17
Transporting Li-ion batteries from the manufactured
location to the assembly location increases the overall cost,
in addition to safety issues associated with transporting Li-ion
batteries. This has led to several EV manufacturers attempting
to colocate the Li-ion battery manufacturing and the vehicle
assembly.
18
Given this trend, it is important for India to
develop local manufacturing of Li-ion batteries. There are
numerous eorts underway for the establishment of large-scale
Li-ion manufacturing in India. Proposals are likely to be invited
for setting up gigawatt-hour sized manufacturing plants for a
selection to be made through a bidding process for storage
batteries. Investment-linked direct tax exemptions and other
Figure 2. Battery pack cost as a function of the range of the electric
two-wheeler examined at dierent pack specic energies. We can
observe that the pack cost increases as the range increases
(because of a larger battery pack), an increase in specic energy
reduces the pack cost. The rate of reduction in pack cost with
increasing specic energy is higher at longer driving ranges;
however, this eect is not as signicant as seen in electric four-
wheelers and the eect is negligible below a range of 100 km.
5
Figure 3. Total initial consumer cost for electric two-wheelers is
presented as a function of the battery pack price (price to
manufacturer) and is examined at dierent values of the battery
pack-to-vehicle cost ratio. The pack-to-vehicle cost ratio implicitly
represents the total cost of the various components of the vehicle
other than the battery pack. Currently, the electric 2-W initial
customer cost is over 100 000 INR (INR, 2019 Indian Rupee)
represented by the top-left (red) region of the contour, while that
of a comparable internal combustion engine (ICE) 2-W is about
70 000 INR shown by the dotted line.
12
The ICE cost parity line at
70 000 INR represents the threshold for several scenarios in which
the electric 2-W would have a lower initial cost to consumers
compared to ICE 2-W. While the rapidly falling price of Li-ion
batteries does reduce the total cost of an electric 2-W, it can be
seen that low total vehicle costs are achieved only when the pack-
to-vehicle cost ratio is high in addition to a low battery pack price.
An increase in the value of the pack-to-vehicle cost ratio at a xed
battery pack price represents a drop in the costs of components
other than the battery pack, thus highlighting the importance of
achieving cost-eective means of manufacturing the rest of the
vehicle.
ACS Energy Letters Viewpoint
DOI: 10.1021/acsenergylett.9b02103
ACS Energy Lett. 2019, 4, 26912694
2692
indirect tax benets may also be oered. Undoubtedly, a major
challenge for manufacturers is to develop and customize
battery technology that best suits Indian conditions.
19
In conclusion, there is an extraordinary opportunity around
the electrication of two-wheelers that could lead to a
considerable reduction in CO2emissions along with improve-
ments in urban air quality achieved at a much lower operation
and maintenance cost compared to ICE 2-Ws. Based on our
performance analysis, we identify that typical electric 2-
wheelers will have a mileage of 2225 Wh/km, leading to a
battery pack requirement of around 2.5 kWh for a range of 100
km. Given this battery requirement, the cost of batteries
becomes a critical bottleneck to attaining cost parity with
equivalent ICE 2-Ws. We identify a target battery pack price
range of 11 000 to 16 000 INR/kWh and a corresponding
battery pack-to-vehicle cost ratio between 0.4 and 0.6 to attain
cost parity with the ICE two-wheelers. To meet this battery
pack cost target, manufacturing and sourcing of raw materials
locally is critical. Looking forward, the scal incentives that are
currently in place are likely to spur considerable interest in the
electric two-wheeler space.
Shashank Sripad
Tarun Mehta
Anil Srivastava
Venkatasubramanian Viswanathan*
,
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon
University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213, United States
Ather Energy Pvt. Ltd., Bengaluru, Karnataka 560066,
India
NITIAayog (National Institution for Transforming India),
New Delhi Delhi, India
ASSOCIATED CONTENT
*
SSupporting Information
The Supporting Information is available free of charge on the
ACS Publications website at DOI: 10.1021/acsenergy-
lett.9b02103.
Details of the drive cycle and power prole (PDF)
AUTHOR INFORMATION
Corresponding Author
*E-mail: venkvis@cmu.edu.
ORCID
Shashank Sripad: 0000-0003-1785-2042
Venkatasubramanian Viswanathan: 0000-0003-1060-5495
Notes
Views expressed in this Viewpoint are those of the authors and
not necessarily the views of the ACS.
Theauthorsdeclarethefollowingcompetingnancial
interest(s): Tarun Mehta is the CEO of Ather Energy Pvt.
Ltd. Anil Srivastava is Principal Consultant and Mission
Director, Mission for Transformative Mobility & Battery
Storage at the National Institution for Transforming India -
NITI Aayog.
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ACS Energy Letters Viewpoint
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ACS Energy Lett. 2019, 4, 26912694
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