Trends of Goal Scoring Patterns in Soccer: A Retrospective Analysis of Five Successive FIFA World Cup Tournaments

Abstract

This study analysed the 795 goals scored during a total of 320 matches played in five successive FIFA World Cup tournaments (1998–2014). Data were obtained through YouTube videos and analysed by means of Longomatch software. The variables analysed included the number of goals scored per half (45‐min period), per 15‐min period, and per 30‐min period of extra time, goal scoring zones, goals scored by substitutes, types of goals scored, and goals scored according to the playing position. With regard to 15‐min period analysis, most goals were scored between the 76th and 90th minutes (24.7%) of the game in all five World Cup competitions. Chi‐square analyses showed no significant (p > 0.05) differences in the frequency of goal scoring patterns per 45‐min and 15‐min periods in the five World Cup tournaments. Most goals were scored from inside the goal (23.8%) and penalty (14.6%) areas. The greatest number of goals was scored by strikers (54.2%), followed by midfielders (33.3%) and defenders (2.3%). These findings provide practical implications for improving goal‐scoring performance in soccer.

Full text

JournalofHumanKineticsvolume69/2019,231‐238DOI:10.2478/hukin‐2019‐0015231
SectionIII–SportsTraining

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1‐DepartmentofSport,RehabilitationandDentalSciences,TshwaneUniversityofTechnology,SouthAfrica.
Authorssubmittedtheircontributiontothearticletotheeditorialboard.
AcceptedforprintingintheJournalofHumanKineticsvol.69/2019inSeptember2019.
TrendsofGoalScoringPatternsinSoccer:ARetrospective
AnalysisofFiveSuccessiveFIFAWorldCupTournaments
by
AllianceKubayi1,AbelToriola1
Thisstudyanalysedthe795goalsscoredduringatotalof320matchesplayedinfivesuccessiveFIFAWorld
Cuptournaments(1998–2014).DatawereobtainedthroughYouTubevideosandanalysedbymeansofLongomatch
software.Thevariablesanalysedincludedthenumberofgoalsscoredperhalf(45‐minperiod),per15‐minperiod,andper
30‐minperiodofextratime,goalscoringzones,goalsscoredbysubstitutes,typesofgoalsscored,andgoalsscored
accordingtotheplayingposition.Withregardto15‐minperiodanalysis,mostgoalswerescoredbetweenthe76thand
90thminutes(24.7%)ofthegameinallfiveWorldCupcompetitions.Chi‐squareanalysesshowednosignificant(p>
0.05)differencesinthefrequencyofgoalscoringpatternsper45‐minand15‐minperiodsinthefiveWorldCup
tournaments.Mostgoalswerescoredfrominsidethegoal(23.8%)andpenalty(14.6%)areas.Thegreatestnumberof
goalswasscoredbystrikers(54.2%),followedbymidfielders(33.3%)anddefenders(2.3%).Thesefindingsprovide
practicalimplicationsforimprovinggoal‐scoringperformanceinsoccer.
Keywords:soccer,tactics,videoanalysis,goals,performance.

Introduction
Soccerisundoubtedlytheworld’smost
popularsport,playedbymorethan240million
peopleasmembersof1.4millionteams(Acaretal.,
2009).Itwasreportedthatthe2014FIFAWorld
CupinBrazilattractedaglobaltelevisionaudience
of3.2billionpeople,withmorethanonebillion
peoplewatchingthefinal(FIFA,2015).Ofcourse,
thesoccerWorldCupprovidesanopportunityto
observethebestteamsandplayersintheworld.In
additiontotheanthropometric,psychological,and
physiologicalresearch,performanceanalysis
amongsoccerplayersintermsoftechniquesand
tacticshasbecomepopular(Acaretal.,2009;
Castellanoetal.,2012;Clementeetal.,2015;Moura,
etal.,2015;Smpokosetal.2018).
Regardlessofthepopularityassociated
withthesport,alownumberofgoalsscored
duringamatchisoneofthefeaturesofmodern
soccer(Phukanetal.,2015;Kalinowskietal.,2019).
Thistrendisstrikingconsideringthefactthatgoal
scoringprovidesthemostexcitingandfascinating
positiveexperienceforsoccerfansaswellas
coachesandanalysts.Therefore,itisessentialthat
soccercoachesandtechnicalstaffpaymore
attentiontogoalscoringpatternsassuch
informationcanbehelpfulindevisingstrategies
thatcouldmaximiseteamsuccess.Despitea
plethoraofstudiesontheanalysisofgoalsscored
insoccer(e.g.,Acaretal.,2009;Njororai,2013;
Phukanetal.,2015;YiannakosandArmatas,2006),
mostpreviousresearchhasbeenlimitedtoone
tournament,eitheratthenationalorinternational
level.Indeed,thereisadearthofresearch
concerningthegoalscoringtrendsintheFIFA
WorldCup.
Todate,onlyonestudycouldbefound,
whichwasconductedbyArmatasetal.(2007)and
focussedontherelationshipbetweentimeandgoal
scoringinthe1998,2002,and2006FIFAWorld
Cups.Theresultsindicatedthatmostgoalswere
scoredinthesecondhalfofthegameinallthree
WorldCuptournaments.Withregardto15‐min
analysis,itwasfoundthatmostgoalswerescored
betweenthe76thand90thminofthegame,andthe
highestnumberofgoalswasrecordedtowardsthe
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232 Trendsofgoalscoringpatternsinsoccer
JournalofHumanKinetics‐volume69/2019http://www.johk.pl

endofmatches(Armatasetal.,2007).Althoughthe
studybyArmatasetal.(2007)hasprovided
baselineinformationwithreferencetothegoal
scoringpatternsfromaninternationalperspective,
itisnotwithoutlimitations,withthemostnotable
beingtherestrictiontogoalscoringfrequency(i.e.,
goalsscoredper45‐minand15‐minperiods).Asa
result,theirstudydidnotprovideacomplete
pictureofthegoalscoringpatternsatFIFAWorld
Cupcompetitions.
Therefore,thisstudyseeksto
retrospectivelyanalysethegoalscoringpatterns
andtrendsinthelastfivesuccessiveFIFAWorld
Cuptournaments(1998–2014).Specifically,the
objectivesofthestudyweretoexaminethe
frequencyofgoalsscored,goalscoringzones,the
numberofgoalsscoredbysubstitutes,typesof
goalsscored(setplayoropenplay),andgoals
scoredaccordingtotheplayingposition.AsAbtet
al.(2002)argued,analysisofgoalscoringpatterns
couldprovidehelpfulinformationtobothcoaches
andsportsscientists,astherelationshipbetween
goalscoringandtimewouldappeartobelinkedto
thoseaspectsofplaywhichinherentlychangeasa
matchprogresses,suchasphysicalconditioning
andtacticalplay.
Methods
Followinginstitutionalethicsapproval,64
matchesfromeachofthefivesuccessiveFIFA
WorldCups(1998–France,2002–Korea/Japan,
2006–Germany,2010–SouthAfrica,and2014–
Brazil)werestudied(N=320matches).TheFIFA
WorldCuptournamentwasselectedbecauseit
involvedtheparticipationoftopinternational
teamsfromallovertheworld(Armatasetal.,
2007).DatawereobtainedthroughYouTube
videos,whichwasasimilardatacollection
proceduretothatusedinpreviousresearchon
soccer(Furleyetal.,2017).Thematcheswere
analysedbytheprincipalresearcherusing
Longomatchsoftwareinwhichallactionswere
recordedonanelectronicsheet.
Thevariablesanalysedincludedthe
frequencyofgoalsscoredperhalf(firsthalf,
secondhalf,extratime),15‐minperiod(1–15,16–
30,31–45,45–60,61–75,76–90),and30‐minperiod
ofextratime(91–105,105–120),goalscoringzones
(penalties,insidethegoalarea,insidethepenalty
area,outsidethepenaltyarea),thenumberofgoals
scoredbysubstitutes,typesofgoalsscored(open


playorsetplay),andthenumberofgoalsscored
accordingtotheplayingposition(defender,
midfielder,striker).Foreaseofanalysis,allthe
goalsscoredatthefivesuccessiveFIFAWorldCup
tournamentsweretalliedandcombined.
Thereafter,allvariableswereenteredintoa
MicrosoftExcel®spreadsheet,importedinto
StatisticalPackageforSocialSciences(SPSS)
softwareandanalyseddescriptively(frequencies
andpercentages).AChi‐squaretestwasusedto
examinesignificantdifferencesinthefrequencyof
goalsscored.Thelevelofsignificancewassetatp
≤0.05.
Results
Atotalof795goalswerescoredin320
matchesplayedinthelastfivesuccessiveFIFA
WorldCups.Mostgoalswerescoredatthe1998
(anaverageof2.67permatch)and2014(an
averageof2.67permatch)WorldCup
tournaments,whiletheleastwererecordedduring
the2006(anaverageof2.30permatch)and2010
(anaverageof2.27permatch)competitions(Table
1).
Withregardto15‐minperiodanalysis,
mostgoalswerescoredduringthe76th–90thmin
(24.7%)periodofthegameinallfiveWorldCups.
Thelowestnumberofgoalswasobservedbetween
the16thand30thminutesofthematchesinthe1998
(11.1%)and2002(11.8%)tournaments,andalsoin
thefirst15minutesofthematchesinthe2006
(15.6%),2010(9.7%),and2014(10.5%)
tournaments.Chi‐squareanalysesshowedno
significant(p>0.05)differencesinthefrequencyof
goalscoringpatternsper15‐minperiodinthefive
WorldCups.Despitethisnon‐significant
difference,thefrequencyofgoalscoringwastime
dependent,andgoalswerescoredastime
progressed(Figure1).
Table2showszonesfromwhichgoals
werescoredduringtheWorldCupevents.Overall,
inallthecompetitions,fewgoalswerescoredfrom
penalties(8.0%)andfromoutsidethepenaltyarea
(14.6%),whilemostgoalswerescoredfrominside
thegoal(23.8%)andpenalty(53.6%)areas.
Figure2illustratesthepatternsofgoals
scoredbysubstitutesinthefiveWorldCup
competitions.Theresultsshowedthatsubstitutes
scoredmoregoalsin2006(15.6%)and2014(18.7%)
thanin1998(8.8%)and2002(13.0%).
Figure3illustratesthetypesofgoals


byAllianceKubayiandAbelToriola233
©EditorialCommitteeofJournalofHumanKinetics

scored.Overall,mostgoalswerescoredfromopen
play,withthehighestnumberofgoalsrecordedin
2010(75.9%)and2014(77.8%).The1998(63.7%)
and2006(68.7%)WorldCupcompetitionshadthe
leastgoalsfromopenplay.
Mostsetplaygoalswerescoredin1998(36.3%)
and2006(31.3%),decliningto24.1%and22.2%in

2010and2014,respectively.
Table3presentsthedistributionofgoals
accordingtotheplayerposition.Asexpected,most
goalswerescoredbystrikers(54.2%),followedby
midfielders(33.3%)anddefenders(10.2%),inall
theWorldCups.




Table1
Goalscoringfrequency(FIFAWorldCuptournaments:1998–2014)
Timeinterval19982002 200620102014Total
01–1525±14.625±15.523±15.614±9.718±10.5105±13.2
16–30 19±11.119±11.8 24±16.323±15.925±14.6110±13.8
31–4526±15.225±15.523±15.622±15.222±12.9118±14.8
45–6031±18.128±17.419±12.922±15.224±14.0124±15.6
61–75 24±14.030±18.611±7.527±18.633±19.3125±15.7
76–9045±26.331±19.344±29.935±24.141±24.0196±24.7
Extratime  
91–10500±0.002±1.201±0.701±0.603±1.807±0.9
105–12001±0.601±0.602±1.401±0.605±2.910±1.3
Total 171±100161±100147±100145±100171±100795±100
Numberof
gamesplayed
6464646464320
Average 2.672.522.302.272.672.48
Valuesarereportedasfrequenciesandpercentages




Figure1
Goalscoringdistribution(FIFAWorldCuptournaments:1998–2014)

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234 Trendsofgoalscoringpatternsinsoccer
JournalofHumanKinetics‐volume69/2019http://www.johk.pl



Table2
Goalscoringzones(FIFAWorldCuptournaments:1998–2014)
Timeinterval19982002 200620102014Total
Penalties 17±9.913±8.113±8.809±6.212±7.064±8.0
Outsidethepenalty
area
20±11.725±15.526±17.726±17.919±11.1116±14.6
Insidethegoalarea 41±24.039±24.235±23.831±21.443±25.2189±23.8
Insidethepenalty
area
93±54.484±52.273±49.779±54.597±56.7426±53.6
Valuesarereportedasfrequenciesandpercentages










Figure2
Numberofgoalsscoredbysubstitutes(FIFAWorldCuptournaments:1998–2014)







byAllianceKubayiandAbelToriola235
©EditorialCommitteeofJournalofHumanKinetics
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



Figure3
Typesofgoalsscored(FIFAWorldCuptournaments:1998–2014)





Table3
Analysesofgoalscoringaccordingtotheplayerposition(FIFAWorldCuptournaments:
1998–2014)
19982002 200620102014Total
Strikers93±54.488±54.779±53.777±53.194±55.0431±54.2
Midfielder59±34.553±32.947±32.050±34.556±32.7265±33.3
Defenders15±8.817±10.517±11.616±11.016±9.481±10.2
Owngoal04±2.303±1.904±2.702±1.405±2.918±2.3
Valuesarereportedasfrequenciesandpercentages




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236 Trendsofgoalscoringpatternsinsoccer
JournalofHumanKinetics‐volume69/2019http://www.johk.pl

Discussion
Theaimofthisstudywasto
retrospectivelyanalysethetrendsofgoalscoring
patternsinfivesuccessiveFIFAWorldCup
tournaments.Overall,thisstudyfoundthatthe
goalscoringpatternsweretimedependent.Itwas
alsonotedthatthenumberofgoalsscored
increasedasagameprogressed,withthehighest
proportionofgoalsrecordedinthelast15minutes
ofthematch.Giventhatthesampleofthisstudy
comprisedfiveWorldCupcompetitions,the
presentfindingssupportthoseofprevious
research(Abtetal.,2002),whichreportedan
upwardtrendinthegoalscoringfrequencyover
thecourseofthegame.Mostgoalsbeingscoredin
thefinal15‐minperiodofthegamecouldbe
attributedtofactorssuchasdifferencesin
conditioninglevelsandlapsesofconcentration
amongplayers(Acaretal.,2009).This
phenomenoncouldbeexplainedbyplayerfatigue
towardstheendofthegame.Playerswhohave
betterphysicalconditioningareabletominimise
theeffectsoffatigue,especiallytowardstheendof
thegame,whentheytendtogainanadvantage
overtheiropponentswithinferiorconditioning
(Abtetal.,2002;Carlingetal.,2005).
Similarly,concedinggoalstowardsthe
endofthegamecouldbeassociatedwith‘mental
fatigue’amongplayersasaresultofcontinued
physicaleffort,whichcouldleadtotactical
mistakesandunforcederrorsthatopenupgoal
scoringopportunities(Carlingetal.,2005).Thelate
surgeingoalscoringmayalsobeattributedto
players’timeconsciousnessandurgencyinspiteof
thedeclineinphysicalcapabilities.Carlingetal.
(2005)furtherindicatedthatduetothefactthat
criticalincidentsincontestingballpossession
usuallyoccurredinthefinal15minutesofthe
game,goalscoringchancesweremorelikelyto
increase.Despitetheoccurrenceoffatigue,ateam
thatisphysically,mentally,tactically,and
technicallypreparedtoenduretheentire90
minutesofintensematchplayismorelikelytobe
aneffectiveandcohesiveunit(Carlingetal.,2005).
Strategiessuchasensuringadequate
hydrationpriortoandduringthematch,aswellas
dietarymanipulation,candelaytheeffectsof
fatigue(Abtetal.,2002).Carlingetal.(2005)
reiteratedthatplayerswithsoundnutritional
preparationformatchestendedtoshowamore
stablework‐rateprofilethroughoutthegamethan

thosewhopreparedcasually.Additionally,the
mannerinwhichsubstitutesareutilisedbythe
coachplaysanimportantroleinpreventingthe
occurrenceoffatiguetowardstheendofthegame
(Abtetal.,2002).Thepresentstudyshowedthat
substituteplayersscoredmostgoalsduringthe
2014FIFAWorldCup.Theoverallworkrateof
substitutescouldalsoassistfatiguedplayers.For
example,intheirstudy,Mohretal.(2003)found
that13substitutescovered25%moredistance
duringthelastquarterofthegame,engagingin
morehigh‐intensityrunningthantheother
players.
Resultsofthepresentstudyfurther
showedthatmostgoalswerescoredfromopen
play,withanoticeableincreasebetweenthe2006
and2014WorldCupcompetitions.Incontrast,the
numberofsetplaygoalsdecreasedconsiderably
betweenthe2006and2014WorldCups.Mostgoals
werescoredfrominsidethepenaltyarea.A
plausiblereasonforthisfindingcouldbethatitis
easiertoscoregoalsfromthislocation(Yanci,
2015).Anotherpossibleexplanationcouldbethat
theplayersprefertobenearthegoalpost,butnot
inthegoalkeeper’srangesothattheycanshootthe
ballwithlessdistraction(Muhammdetal.,2013).
Thefactthatfewergoalswerescoredfromoutside
thepenaltyareamaybeascribedtohigh‐quality
goalkeepingandcompactdefencestructures.
Similarly,therelativelyfewgoalsscoredfrom
outsidethepenaltyareamaybeareflectionofthe
teams’abilitytodefendefficientlyandeffectively
intheirownareas(UEFA,2016).Itisnotsurprising
inthepresentstudythatmostgoalswerescoredby
strikers.However,theefficiencyofdefendersand
midfieldersinmovingforwardclosetothegoal
areaputspressureontheoppositionteamand
increaseschancesofgoalscoring(Acaretal.,2009).
Conclusion
Theresultsofthisstudyshowedthata
totalof795goalswerescoredduring320games,
withmostgoalsrecordedinthe1998and2014
FIFAWorldCuptournaments.Concerningthe15‐
minanalysis,mostgoalswererecordedbetween
the76thand90thminutesinallfiveWorldCup
competitions.Itwasfurtherfoundthatthehighest
proportionofgoalsemergedfrominsidethegoal
andpenaltyareas.Theresultsalsoshowedthat
mostgoalswerescoredbystrikers,followedby
midfieldersanddefenders,inalltheWorldCup


byAllianceKubayiandAbelToriola237
©EditorialCommitteeofJournalofHumanKinetics

tournaments.Soccercoachesshouldtakenoteof
thefindingsofthepresentstudyinorderto
increasegoal‐scoringopportunities.Future
researchshouldfocusoninvestigatingthe
offensivetacticsofgoalscoringpatternsinsoccer.
Practicalimplications
Basedonthefindingsofthisstudy,several
recommendationscanbemade.First,thisstudy
suggeststhatsoccercoachesshouldensurethat
playersaregivensufficientphysicalconditioning
toendurethefull90+minutesofthegame.Players
whoarephysicallypreparedare
likelytohavehigherlevelsofconcentration,which


willminimiseerrorssuchaspoormarking,
committingfouls,andsoforth.Second,strategies
suchasdietarymanipulationandadequate
hydrationbeforeandduringmatchesshouldbe
applied,astheymaydelaytheonsetoffatigue
throughoutthegame.Finally,itshouldbenoted
thatmatchanalysisshouldnotberegardedasan
endinitself,astheoutcomeofasoccermatchis
determinedbymultidimensionalfactorssuchas
fitnessandpsychologicalpreparation,among
others.However,itisimportantforsoccercoaches
toincludetheresultsofmatchanalysesaspartof
theirtrainingprogrammeinordertomaximisethe
overallsuccessoftheirteams.


References
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Correspondingauthor:

AllianceKubayi
TshwaneUniversityofTechnology
DepartmentofSport,RehabilitationandDentalSciences
RepublicofSouthAfrica
Pretoria0001
Phonenumber:+27123824272
Faxnumber:+27123825801
E‐mail:kubayina@tut.ac.za
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