Mitigating vulnerability of water resources under climate change CC-WARE - brochure

Abstract

The main objective of the project CC-WARE is the development of an integrated transnational strategy for water protection and mitigating water resources vulnerability which builds the basis for an implementation of national / regional action plans.

Full text

Mitigating vulnerability of water resources under climate change
CC-WARE
• SEE programme
• Priority axis: Protection and improvement of the environment
• Area of intervention: Improve integrated water management and flood risk protection
• Financed by European regional development fund /ERDF/
• Web site: www.ccware.eu
Jointly for our common future
Romania
Greece
Bul
garia
Austria
Italy
Slovenia
Hungary
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Serbia
Croatia
Associated strategic partner
EFRD
/
IPA partners
Moldova

Project partners
LP Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and
Water Management, Forest Department (AT)
PP1 Municipality of the City of Vienna, MA31 Vienna Waterworks (AT)
PP2 Municipality of Waidhofen an der Ybbs (AT)
PP3 University of Ljubljana (SL)
PP4 Public Water Utility Ljubljana JP Vodovod-Kanalizacija d.o.o. (SL)
PP5 National Institute for Environment (HU)
PP6 National Forest Administration (RO)
PP7 National Meteorological Administration (RO)
PP8 Executive Forest Agency (BG)
PP9 Thessaloniki Water Supply & Sewerage Co sa (GR)
PP10 Decentralised Administration of Macedonia and Thrace, Water
Directorate of Central Macedonia (GR)
PP11 Regional Agency for Environmental Protection in the Emilia-Romagna
region (IT)
IPA1 Jaroslav Cerni Institute for the Development of Water Resources (RS)
ASP1 National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management (RO)
ASP2 Ministry of the Environment and Spatial Planning, Slovenian
Environmental Agency (SI)
10% PP1
Hydro Engineering Institute Sarajevo (BA)
10% PP2 Croatian Geological Survey (HR)
10% PP3
South Regional Development Agency (MD)

Prepared by:
CC-WARE Project Partner 08:
Executive Forest Agency, Bulgaria:
Dipl. Ing. Lubcho Trichkov PhD, Albena Bobeva PhD, Dipl. Ing. Cenko Cenov PhD, Dipl. Ing.
Denitsa Pandeva PhD, Dipl. Ing. Luben Zhelev, Dipl. Ing. Darina Ilcheva, Dipl. Ing. Anna
Petrakieva PhD, Dipl. Ing. Ognian Yosifov, Vladimir Konstantinov, Dipl. Ing. Stefan Balov
Associated organizations:
Forestry University – Sofia
Assoc. Prof. Georgi Kostov, Assoc. Prof. Nevena Shuleva, Elena Rafailova, PhD
Forest Research Institute – BAS
Prof. Ivan Marinov, Assoc. Prof. Emilia Velizarova,
Assoc. Prof. Grud Popov
National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology – BAS
Prof. Valeri Spiridonov, Assoc. Prof. Irena Ilcheva, Assoc. Prof. Krasimira Nikolova, Assoc. Prof.
Snejanka Balabanova, Assoc. Prof. Igor Niagolov

Project objective
The main objective of the project CC-WARE is the development of an integrated transnational strategy for
water protection and mitigating water resources vulnerability which builds the basis for an implementation
of national / regional action plans.
To achieve the project goal, the implementation of the following specialized Work packages /WP/ is
envisaged:
WP 3 Vulnerability of Water Resources in SEE
• Common methodology for assessment of present and future vulnerability of water resources in
climate change conditions
• Vulnerability indicators
• Mapping water quantity and water quality vulnerability
• Water protective forests
• Mapping water vulnerability in test-areas
WP 4 Management options for mitigating vulnerability of drinking water resources
• Assessment of forest ecosystems and best sylvicultural practices for protection and preservation of
water resources in climate change conditions
• Forest ecosystem service – “supply of drinking water”
• Analysis of relevant legislation and policies to ensure drinking water, protection of water sources
and assessment of land use on European, national and regional level
• Best forest practices and measures catalogue for mitigation on water resources vulnerability in
southeast Europe
WP 5 Transnational Strategy for national and regional Action Plans
• The activities in WP 5 are based on WP3 and WP 4 and are combined in Common transnational
strategy for mitigation of vulnerability of water resources in southeast Europe
• National examples of best practices – forest management options for protection of water resources
in climate change conditions

Results
WP 3 Vulnerability of Water Resources in SEE
Climate Changes
The climate is the main natural driver of the variability in the water resources. Аtmospheric precipitation, air
temperature and evapotranspiration are commonly used for assessing and forecasting the water availability.
Climate change data results from CC-WaterS project were used and were obtained from three regional
climate models RCMs (RegCM3 – ITCP, Aladin – CNRM, Promes – UCLM), based on A1B scenario.
Temperature
The data retrieved by the ensemble models show that the air temperature will increase in all the
seasons, and in all the regions of the SEE area. Comparing the 2021-2050 and 1991-2020 mean
temperatures, the highest differences occur during the summer, when the Balkan Peninsula may be
with 2.0-2.5°C warmer, while the temperature could generally increase with 1-2°C. The increasing trend
is present in the other seasons, but at lower rates (1.0-1.5°C in autumn, 0.5-1.5°C in spring and
winter).(Figure 1)
1
1
Spatial resolution for all maps is 25 km (0,25
o
).
Data time intervals:
- 1961-1990 (baseline climate)
- 1991-2020 (present climate)
- 2021-2050 (future climate)
Main climate variables are:
- precipitation (RR)
- temperature (T)
- potential and actual evapotranspiration (PET and AET)
Additional climate indicators:
- UNEP Aridity Index
- De Martonne’s Index of Aridity

Figure 1 Differences in annual temperature values (
o
C) between future and present period for fall, winter,
spring and summer
Annual precipitation amount
The ensemble precipitation varies between annual amounts of 300 - 400 mm in the southern part of the
Balkan Peninsula and Italy, and over 1.700 mm in the Alps. The differences (Figure 2) between the future
period (2021-2050) and present (1991-2020) reveal that the analysed region is at the edge between the
northern areas expecting increasing amounts, and the southern ones where decreasing is likely to occur in
the next decades.(Figure 2)
Figure 2 Differences in annual precipitation amount (mm) between future and present period according to
ensemble of RegCM3, ALADIN and PROMES models.
Annual actual evapotranspiration
The annual AET decreases from the western to the eastern part of the SEE area. The highest values occur in
the southern part of the Alps and in Greece. The present AET pattern will be preserved in the future, but

some fluctuations in the absolute values can be predicted. Thus, the annual AET will increase with 10-25 mm
in the northern part of the SEE area, mainly in the mountains, and will probably decrease slightly in
lowlands. (Figure 3)
Figure 3 Differences between future and present annual actual evapotranspiration (mm) according to
ensemble of RegCM3, ALADIN and PROMES models for present and future period.
UNEP Aridity Index
Some relevant changes in the aridity can be expected in the eastern part of the SEE area. According to the
UNEP Aridity Index, significant territories from the eastern parts of Romania and Bulgaria could become dry
sub-humid in the next decades, and the semi-aridity will be more extended in the eastern parts of Greece.
The general pattern of the territorial distribution will remain unchanged. (Figure 4)
Figure 4 UNEP Aridity Index (mm) according to ensemble of RegCM3, ALADIN and PROMES models for present and
future period.
De Martonne’s Index
The values of de Martonne’s Index of Aridity illustrate that substantial changes are likely to occur over
the eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula in the next decades, leading to shifting from semi-humid to
semi-aridity. In the rest of the SEE area, the shifting from one aridity category to another is less evident.
(Figure 5)

Figure 5 De Martonne’s Index (mm) for present and future period
Water resources sensitivity to climate changes
Water quantity
According to UNEP methodology (2009), vulnerability is a function of water availability, use and
management parameters. The following indicators were estimated:
Table 1 Indicators for water quantity sensitivity
INDICATORS SYMBOL UNITS DATA SOURCES &
FORMULAS
Precipitation P mm/yr = (l/m2)/yr CC-WaterS SEE
Project
Actual
evapotranspiration
AET mm/yr = (l/m2)/yr Budyko formula
Water demand -
total
WD mm/yr = (l/m2)/yr WD = WDp + WDa +
WDi
Water demand -
population
WDp (l/m2)/yr EUROSTAT, Partner
Countries
Water demand -
agriculture
WDa (l/m2)/yr Partners countries,
FAO, Eurostat
Water demand -
industry
WDin (l/m2)/yr EUROSTAT, Partner
Countries
Local Total Runoff LTR mm/yr = (l/m2)/yr LTR=P-Eta
Local Total Runoff LTRI ND LTR normalized 0-1
Southeast Europe is not homogeneous regarding climat
e changes
Increasing temperature trends (esp. summer season)
Decreasing precipitation trend (esp. in south regions)
Evapotranspration: strong increase in whole southeast Europe
Drought: comparatively stable; increase in some region
(incl. Romania, Bulgaria and Greece)

Index
Local Water
Exploitation Index
LWS ND LWS=WD/LTR
Local total runoff
Water availability was calculated as a simplified water balance:
Q = P – AET, where Q is total runoff (surface and groundwater).
In all periods it is obvious that in the Alps and Carpathian total runoff is high, whereas in all other parts it is
relatively low, which means less water is available (Figure 6). Differences among periods are very small,
therefore relative change of absolute values of local total runoff (ΔLTR) was calculated.
In mountainous areas of the Alps and Carpathians there is a slight positive change. There local total runoff
might be higher in the future. On the other hand in western and eastern part of Greece, NE Bulgaria and SE
Romania scenarios show that local total runoff would diminish.
Figure 6 Relative change of Local total runoff (ΔLTR) (mm) according to ensemble of RegCM3, ALADIN and
PROMES models for baseline, present and future period
Water demand
Water demand is estimated as water withdrawal by sectors. Future water demand can be estimated
regarding population growth (domestic water use), GDP changes (industrial water use) and land use changes
(agricultural water use). Nevertheless, all these are also subject to policy. Future water demand will be
assessed applying different scenarios (Figure 7).
Future scenarios used:
10 % decrease of WD
0 % change (no change)
10 % increase of WD
25 % increase of WD

Figure 7 Water demand for present and future scenarios for CC-WARE countries within SEE area
There is a high industrial water demand in the area north of Sofia /Kozlodui area/ and along Marica river
(Plovdiv) in Bulgaria.
Local water exploitation index (LWEI)
Water exploitation index (WEI) or water stress, which is the ratio of total water demand (domestic,
industrial and agricultural) to the available amount of renewable water resources that consists of surface
water and groundwater safe yield (river discharge or runoff and groundwater recharge). Values from 0,2 to
0,4 indicate medium to high stress, whereas values greater than 0,4 reflect conditions of severe water
limitations (Vörösmarty et al. 2000).
From WD maps and LTR maps, LOCAL WATER EXPLOITATION INDEX (LWEI) was calculated as a ratio
between WD and LTR for all periods and scenarios.
LWEI=WD/LTR, where LWEI is Local Water Exploitation Index, WD is Water Demand and LTR Local Total
Runoff.
The name LOCAL Water Exploitation Index is because total runoff was calculated as direct runoff, not taking
into consideration inflowing and outflowing runoff to and out of the 25x25 grid cell. Тhere is a high water
stress on annual level in the SEE region already in the present state (P), except in mountainous regions.
(Figure 8)

Figure 8 Local Water Exploitation Index (LWEI) for present and future scenarios of water demand for CC-
WARE countries within SEE area.
Overall water quantity sensitivity
Table 2 Overall Water Quantity Sensitivity as a function of annual and seasonal vulnerability

Figure 9 Overall Local Water Exploitation Index (LWEIo) for present and future scenarios of water demand
for CC-WARE countries within SEE area.
Local Water Surplus in the future (LWS)
Annual local surplus of water resources is calculated as the difference of local total runoff and water
demand. (Figure 10)

Figure 10 Annual local surplus of water resources (LWS) for baseline, present and future with present
water demand data for CC-WARE countries within SEE area
Water quality
Water quality sensitivity indicators
Main indicator for water quality sensitivity is land use. Data set is Corine Land Cover (CLC2006). Present
land use impact on water quality is reflecting in existing water quality. Water resources at risk are
defined for water bodies by each Member State.
Future land use scenarios (% changes – storylines) were evaluated in accordance with EEA study “Land-
use scenarios for Europe: qualitative and quantitative analysis on a European scale (EEA 2007).
Table 3 Indicators for water quality sensitivity
INDICATORS SYMBOL DATA SOURCES &
FORMULAS
Land use load
coefficients
LUSLI land use load
coefficients for
particular land use -
literature
Pollution load - PLI PLISW SUM(LUSLI
i
· CLC AREA
i
)
Water quality index SW
WQISW PLISW normalized from
0 to 1
HG factor HG HG factor according to
IHME map categories
Pollution load - GW PLIGW PLISW · HG
Water quality index
GW
WQIGW PLIGW normalized
from 0 to 1
Future scenario shown on Figure 11 is a scenario where agricultural land is excluded, which reduces the
water quality vulnerability in the future period.

Figure 11 Differences in Water quality index for present and future period
WP 4 Management options for mitigating vulnerability of drinking water resources
I
n the framework of WP 4 analysis of relevant legislation and policies to ensure drinking water,
protection of water sources and assessment of land use on European, national and regional level was
done. As result the following gaps and recommendations were identified:
Gaps identified:
There is no integrated and common approach of forest-water management. The related legislation is
more or less sectoral. According to the Strategy for the Development of the Water Sector: “The state is
not sufficiently prepared for the impending climate change at the Balkans. The negative effect of global
warming will be felt in the next 10-20 years much stronger than previously considered”. It is also
pointed out that there are some discrepancies between the objectives, tasks, mechanisms and
outcomes. According to the Strategy, the issues of provision and treatment of drinking water, “…………
financial support for ensuring water quality, the activities for maintenance and control of reserve water
sources, the status of water protection zones are not precisely settled in the legislation.
There are no standards concerning the interaction of climate change and trends in water
management”.
Important guidelines and changes concerning the RBMP update and the vulnerability analysis of water
supply in water shortage conditions, drought and climate change have not been yet transposed
completely. They are still recommendatory and integrated management is not entirely implemented.
Certain problems related to the water-protective functions of forests are as follows:

- The conflict between the increased protected areas and/or the area of forests with special functions
and the need to increase of wood consumption.
- Slowing down the process of turning coppice into seed plantations as well as the implementation of
not always appropriate types of fellings for their transformation.
- The deterioration in health and quality of small-scale private forests, caused mostly by logging, which
leads to the loss of their water-protecting functions.
- The construction of forest roads for extracting of harvested wood in protective forests has negative
consequences, one of which is the loss of water-protecting function.
Some of them are pointed out also in the National strategy for the development of forest sector (2013-
2020).
There are no clear financial mechanisms for the implementation of this Strategy as well as for the
implementation of the EU Forest Strategy and Biodiversity Strategy.
Forest Act includes a special chapter on the management of ecosystem services and the benefits from
them, but the secondary legislation, which should determine the methodology for their evaluation and
payment, is still under preparation.
The solution of above mentioned problems is more or less political commitment at national level which
should be taken by the decision-makers.
Recommendations
The process of harmonization of the national legislation, the Water Act in particular, with European
legislation on the basis of the Water Framework Directive should continue. A unified state policy is
required. It is necessary to transpose the standards related to the updating of management plans on
climate change and vulnerability and risk analysis of water supply /water resource systems under
conditions of water shortage, drought and climate change.
The Water Law needs changes to provide the development of long-term measures for ensuring water
supply, optimization of dam and water system management and new schemes and decision support
systems in reservoir management. All this should be included in the future plans for water supply
management in drought periods and in RBMP.
Integration of measures is needed in RBMP and in the general plans in the WSS sector, which are result
of advanced analysis of the water supply and water resource infrastructure, the priorities and indices of
reliability of water supply, water resource management and maintenance of the sanitary-protection
zones and water protection forests. It is imperative to make joint analysis of the water protection
forests and the management of the water resource /water supply/ systems and to specify additional
arrangements to be set in the updated plans for River Basin Management.
Improvement of legislation related to the preservation of water and forest resources and
implementation of efficient systems for monitoring and control of actions, laid out in the legal
framework.
Development of economic incentives to encourage private forest owners to conduct better
management and preservation of their forests is needed.
Integration of the efforts of various institutions in charge of drinking water management to provide
improved legislation related to water preservation, control and management of water protection areas.
Optimization of government / public institutions responsible for preservation and utilization of water
resources and for the implementation of actions mitigating the vulnerability of water resources under
climate change conditions is needed.
It is also necessary to unify the terms and definitions used in forest, water, health, etc. legislation.
Forest ecosystem service “supply of drinking water” in climate change conditions
Forest ecosystems and water resources are closely related - forests are crucial to the sustainable
management of water ecosystems and resources, while water is essential for the sustainability of forest

ecosystems. Forests play a crucial role in the hydrological cycle. They influence the amount of water
available and regulate surface and groundwater flows while maintaining high water quality. Forests
contribute to the reduction of water-related risks such as landslides, floods and droughts and help
prevent desertification and salinization.
Forests return less water to the soil than, well-managed grassland or cultivated areas, as a greater
quantity of water is given back to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration. Forests are important
water users. However, the dense and deep root system of forest soils and the high porosity of its
essentially organic horizons make for excellent water infiltration and retention capacity. Surface runoff
is minimal and groundwater recharge more efficient, resulting in regular stream flow during the year.
Forest management usually results in low input of nutrients, pesticides and other chemicals compared
to more intensive land uses such as agriculture. By minimizing erosion, forests reduce the impairment
of water quality due to sedimentation. By trapping sediments and pollutants from up-slope land uses
and activities, forests help protect water bodies and watercourses. Through the stabilization of river
banks, tree and shrub roots reduce erosion in riparian zones, preventing siltation downstream.
The preservation of water quantity and quality is one of the main contributions of the forest
ecosystems in Bulgaria. Forest ecosystems secure and preserve 85% of water runoff or they ensure
about 3,6 bill. м
3
clean drinking water in the country. This is the main ecosystem service delivered by
forests. The appropriate forest management practices secure this ecosystem service in sustainable way.
Water quantity and quality are influenced by forest composition, forest age structure, soil erosion, air
temperature and precipitation amount. During the last decades climate change have an important
effect on water availability and quality in many regions of the world.
According to climate scenarios for southeast Europe the increase of mean monthly temperatures and
the decrease of the precipitation amount, especially in the south regions is envisaged /CC-WaterS
project, FututeForest project/.
It is expected that climate changes will cause extreme weather events, such as increase of surface
runoff, floods, droughts, forest fires, calamities, changes in snow cover, etc. All these events will
influence the vegetation period and hydrological cycle of forests and will reflect on water quantity and
quality.
Climate change scenario А1В of IPCC (2007) envisages increase of mean annual temperature with 2-3 ˚С
and decrease of annual precipitation with 60-100 mm for the country.
The De Martonne’s index (J = P (T +10), where P and T are annual precipitation and air temperature
shows that towards 2050, about 25% of the forest area in the lower altitudes /14% of the total area in
Bulgaria/ is expected to have a value around or below 20. Such areas are identified as being with critical
conditions for of forest vegetation. Montaineous forest will be slightly affected. Exceptions are possible
only in the south border areas, where forest vegetation is xerophytic.
Impact of climate change on forests and forest watersheds
The most important expected climate change impacts on forests are:
1. Changing habitats, respectively tree species, most suitable for them;
2. Reduction of total and net primary productivity of forests for the country and the emergence of
regional deficits of wood raw material;
3. Destruction of vegetation and degradation of forest areas (including erosion) in all altitudes due
to:
• Increase the number and scale of forest fires as result of prolonged dry periods;
• Increase in forest damage due to storms (winds), torrential rains, wet snow, late spring
frosts, which will support secondary pathogens and insect pests.
4. Reduction of wooded areas in the lower altitudes and increasing forest area over timber line in
the alpine zone;
5. Loss of biodiversity at all levels and increase of the risk of spreading invasive species.

Of great importance for the behavior of forest stands is the degree of change in habitats due to climate
change (Rafailov, Kostov 1994). The habitat with smaller buffer capacity (more dry and of lower fertility)
are more vulnerable. Climate change will affect weaker habitats and mountain forests as the risk of
multiyear water deficit is smaller.
Climate change will alter forests and the activities in them (Kostov, Stiptzov 2004):
1. The species composition of forests as in southeast Europe the share of drought-resistant species
will increase at the expense of mesophytes and hygrophytes;
2. Changes in the age structure of forests with an expressed trend towards their rejuvenation.
Younger forests are more flexible and adaptable;
3. Spatial structure of forest stands will also change as more frequent natural disturbances will
increasingly lead to the formation of heterogeneous in age and composition of stands (as
opposed to today's relatively even aged stands);
4. The productivity of forests in the country will decline. In areas where climate change will lead to
acute or chronic shortage of available moisture (De Martonne’s index <30) forests will be of low
density, with a very low productivity. This will create prerequisites for a deficit of timber and all
types of wood products in the context of the expected increased use of wood by over 20%
towards 2020 (EU Forestry Strategy, 2013). Weak increasing of productivity due to the
extension of the growing season in mountain forests would not compensate the reduced
growth in the rest forest areas.
5. Increased risk of extreme events due to climate, changes the planning activities of logging in
forests. The latter must be free in order to increase opportunities for the unpredictable increase
of the so called "Compulsory use of wood" as a result of fires, calamities, etc.
6. Loss of forest cover due to difficult regeneration and/or degradation of stands. A number of
stands will not be able to regenerate naturally and there is risk of further stand degradation;
7. Ecosystem functions of forests are gaining significant public importance. Restrictions on logging
due to an increase in the proportion of protective and protected forests will increase the cost of
the timber, respectively, will reduce the profitability of existing chains of exploitation, primary
and secondary wood processing.
Water protection forests whose primary purpose is to guarantee and protect the supply of drinking
water in Bulgaria occupy an area of 246 650 ha, which is 9.65% of forest areas in the country. Of these,
69.62% are state owned, 17.99% - municipal, 8.10% - private and 4.29% others. Water protective
forests accumulate annually between 1-1.5 billion m3 of water.
Overall changes in forests and forestry as a result of climate change will affect diversely (but with
predominance of negative effects) on the implementation of ecosystem function - the supply of clean
drinking water from forests:
A. The change in species composition towards drought resistant and pioneer species will increase
transpiration (Raev, 2003). On the other hand forest areas will be retained by soil and wind
erosion and will preserve the forest litter, important for the water quality
in forest watersheds
(Kitin 1988);
B. Predominance of young forest plantations is associated with increased evapotranspiration,
which reduces runoff in the watersheds;
C. The complex spatial structure and species composition of stands is expected to improve their
mechanical stability and long-term preservation of ecosystem functions associated with
watersheds;
D. Windfalls, fires, calamities and other extreme phenomena lead to serious local adverse changes
in the watersheds, including disruption to the infrastructure providing drinking water.
Preliminary preventive measures for their limitation are essential for the forests, especially in
edge distribution areas for the different forest types. Additional investment funds in silvicultural
activities will be needed to ensure suitable stand composition with better fire resistance and /
or construction of fire facilities.

E. Impeded or delayed natural regeneration of forest stands in watersheds has a negative impact
on both the quantity and seasonal distribution of water runoff, as well as on water quality
characteristics (increased sediments, temperature, etc.);
F. Deficiency of timber is a potential risk for the increase of illegal practices in forests and
disturbance of their ecosystem functions, so that control over markets of raw timber and forest
guarding should be increased, especially in the areas mostly affected by the climate change.
G. Changing the sustainability of forest ecosystems increases the risk of non- sustainable flow from
forest watersheds. Therefore it is necessary to introduce appropriate watersheds classification
in order to achieve respective appropriate management.
H. Reducing the cost-effectiveness of traditional forestry operations, and the need to increase
capacity for joint management of forest and water resources imposes to expand opportunities
for funding of diversified activities through appropriate and attractive measures from EU funds.
In the framework of WP4 of CC-WARE project “Catalogue of best forest practices in water protected
areas” for guaranteeing the forest ecosystem service “supply of clean drinking water” was elaborated.

Limitation of Clear-Cuts
Catalogue of best forest practices in water protected areas
/for southeast Europe/
1. Limitation of Clear-Cuts
2. Establishment of a Continuous Cover Forest System
3. Defined Crown Cover Percentage of Forest Stands
-
within planar, collin and montane
forest communities, crown cover percentage should range between 70 % and 90 % and
within subalpine conifer forest communities, crown cover percentage should range
between 60 % and 80 %. According to Bulgarian legislation crown cover percentage
should me minimum 60%.
4. Limitation of the Percentage of Timber Extraction
5. Continuous Regeneration Dynamics
- forest stands in water protected areas have to
host a continuous regeneration phase on minimum 10-20 % of their spatial extension.
Regeneration fellings of up to 20% are allowed. Sanitary felling is permitted only for
separate trees
6. Foster Stability, Vitality and Resilience of the Forest Ecosystems
7. Tree Species Diversity According to the Natural Forest Community
8. Improve the structural diversity of the forest stands
–
ensuring tree species diversity as
well as uneven-aged and multi-layered forest stands
9. Forest Ecologically Sustainable Wild Ungulate Densities
–
ensuring natural regeneration
10. Protection of the Gene Pool of the Autochthonous Tree Species
11. Foster old, huge and vital tree
individuals
12.
Adequate Dead-Wood Content
– ensuring biodiversity in forest ecosystems
13. Buffer Strips along Streams, Dolines and Sinkholes
–
preservation of water bodies and
karst landscape from direct infiltration of mineral deposits and sediments
14. Adaptive Forest Management under Climate Change
15. Natural Forest Succession in Case of Stable Forest Ecosystems
16. Small-Scale Regeneration Techniques
17. Structural Thinning Operations
18. Artificial Recruitment Techniques
- if the natural regeneration dynamics do not provide
adequate results in terms of tree species composition and/or of quantity of tree
seedlings and saplings; the use of autochthonous plant material is mandatory; measure
under climate change, if migrating tree species have to be supported
19. Forest Fire Prevention
20. Limitation of Forest Roads
21. Adequate Timber Yield Techniques
–
to
prevent the disturbance of the soil- and humus
layers
22. Prohibition of the Use of Chemicals in Forestry Practices
23. Source Water Protection Policy and Institutional Implications
-
establishment of an
adequate legislative and administrative frame; integrated forest-water management
24. Preservation of the Forests at the Tree Line and Timber Line (Subalpine Forest Belt in
Mountainous Regions)
25. Integrative Planning Strategy for Watersheds (Forest Ecosystems with drinking water
protection as focus)

National examples as part of transnational strategy for protection of
water resources in climate change condition
In the framework of WP5 the common methodology for vulnerability of water resources of CC-WARE project
partners was applied in different test-areas in Bulgaria.
CASE STUDIES, BULGARIA
“TICHA” WATERSHED
Test area “Reservoir Ticha watershed”, Bulgaria
The reservoir Ticha watershed (Figure 12) is a sub-catchment of the Kamchiya river. The Ticha reservoir is
created on the river Golyama Kamchiya near to the Ticha village and its water resources are used for
multiple purposes such as irrigation, potable and industrial water supply, hydropower output and ecological
discharge provision downstream of the dam.
The watershed area of the Ticha dam is 977 km
2
. Its water storage corresponds to the requirements for a
large dam. The waters of the Ticha dam are used for drinking water supply. The elevation of the watershed
varies from 131 m to 1049 m, and its average slope is 16%.
Figure 12 Reservoir Ticha watershed
A special feature of this reservoir is that it provides an important part of water demand outside of the
watershed. These are both big domestic water supply systems /WS/ “Ticha-Soumen -Veliki Preslav” and WS
“Ticha – Turgovoshte” and the largest irrigation system /IR/ “Vinitsa’. So, one part of the return waters
remains in another watershed. The other three smaller irrigation systems are located along the river
tributaries Dragaovska and Gyurlya inside the Ticha watershed.
The water resources vulnerability and the risk for water supply are determined according the proposed
methodology. WEI and a system of indices estimating the water supply system performance such as Water
shortage index WSHI, reliability in time (by years, months), reliability by volume are implemented. This
makes possible, at local level, to obtain the vulnerability and the risk of water supply for each water user.
The methodology includes several stages as follows:
• Estimation of meteorological factors, scenario modeling and water resources (Figures13 – 15).

Figure 13 Spatial distribution of average annual sum of precipitation and temperature for the
period 1961-1990
Figure 14 Spatial distributions of real evapotranspiration and runoff for the period 1961-1990
Figure 15 Trends of precipitation and temperature during the period 2021-2050
• A graphical scheme (calculation) of the reservoir Ticha watershed is developed containing the river
network, all other water sources and irrigation systems, places of water intake, all water users and
the way of water utilization
• An estimation of the recent and prognostic water demand is made. Ecological minimum for water
ecosystems downstream the dam is determined.
• The parameters of the water resource system are given.
• A watershed network model, consisting of nodes and arcs, is developed and vulnerability
assessment is performed. Through simulation program the water resources are allocated, in each
one node. The balance is calculated and the described indices of water shortage (WSHI: water
shortage index) by years, months and volumes, as well as the index of reliability are determined. The
obtained results demonstrate the degree of meeting the requirements of water demand (Table 4)
and the vulnerability in case of water shortages.

Table 4 Calculated values of WEI
River/point WEI 1961-1990 % WEI 2021-2050 %
River Ticha source up to the village of
Ticha
8,45 19,3
Reservoir Ticha 42,0 77,2
River Draganovska 4,73 8,1
River Gyurlya 11,6 19,7
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80 - 100
Very low
low Moderate
High Very high
Scale of vulnerability
As shown in the scale of WEI vulnerability, the rivers Draganovska, Gyurlya and the section of Ticha river
from its source up to the village of Ticha have very low vulnerability for the basic period /0 -20%/. The value
of WEI for the point res. Ticha shows middle vulnerability /40%-60%/ - the river watershed is loaded with
demand and in dry periods will not be able to provide all the needs. (Table 5)
Table 5 Calculation of WSHI and index of reliability
Exceedance probability Annual
demand
Short-
age by volume by years by months index of
reliabilit
y
Name
m3.102 m3.102 % % %
WS SHUMEN-
PRESLAV,settl.
200 000 0.0 100 100 100 0.000
WSTUGOVISHTE 62998 0.0 100 100 100 0.000
IR VINITSA 628470 78816 87,46 86,67 90,80 6,120
IRKRASNOSELTSI 22783 3055 86,59 80,00 90,16 5,417
IRCHERKOVNA 7401 100 98,65 96,67 98,45 0.123
IRGUERLOVO 4448 115 97,41 96,67 98,45 0,443
HPPTicha 800000 33122 95,86 83,33 93,06 1,248
Eco 195712 0.0 100 100 100 0.000
Figure 16 Vulnerability of Ticha watershed according WEI for the period 1961-1990

Drinking water supply is not at risk. It is provided up to 100%. There are some shortages in irrigation but
they are acceptable because the standard of irrigation is 75%. WEI and shortages are in agreement.
During the period 2021-2050 WEI values are higher and some shortages in drinking water supply appear
although they are not very high, but all the irrigation is at risk – very low probability of exceedance for IR
“Vinitsa”, where Pvolume = 50.3%, Pyear =43.3% and Pmonths =60,1%. Drinking water supply is provided up
to 98,45 % of volume and ecological runoff - 100 %.
Figure 17 WEI for the period 2021-2050
Figure 18 Vulnerability (WEI) and risk of water supply (WSHI) for the Ticha watershed in the period 2021-
2050
Assessment of the drinking water quality vulnerability from the Ticha dam
Analyses of the loadings in regard to the quality of the surface water for drinking
supply from watershed of the Ticha dam
Pressures that affect the quality of surface waters and those used for drinking water can be divided into 4
groups:

1. Diffuse sources of pollution:
• Land use
• Presence of small settlements without sewerage system
• Waste disposal places not complying with EU requirements - without insulating pad surface
and drainage system
2. Point sources of pollution:
• Wastewater treatment plants
• Sewerage system
• Industrial waste water sources
• Livestock farms
3. Significant areas of water use
4. Significant morphological changes:
• Dams, roads
The high proportion - 41% of the arable land in the watershed supposes contamination of the surface waters
of diffuse character. Using of fertilizers and pesticides and possible movement to the water bodies by runoff,
water erosion or through the contact between groundwater and surface water, the existence of the grazing
livestock are the main sources of the pressure on the water quality of the dam, which are used for drinking
supply.
The large proportion of forest vegetation - 52.6% from the total area of the watershed - will have a
preservation role for soil particles runoff and appearance of dissolved and suspended solids in the water of
the Ticha dam.
Vulnerability of the quality of waters for drinking supply
According to the calculated indices for water quality vulnerability /WQI/ for the watershed of the Ticha dam
43.2% of the area characterizes with low vulnerability. Moderately vulnerable are 41.3%, and very low
vulnerable are 2%.
The calculated values for the WQI for future scenarios WQI_2050 in relation to land use changes show
negligible differences and WQI are in the same categories of vulnerability.
Figure 19 Map of water vulnerability of watershed of Ticha dam according to WQI 2006
The data in the figures 20 and 21 shows the spatial distribution of areas in Ticha watershed regarding
vulnerability of water quantity and quality for drinking and household supply. Low and very low vulnerable
regarding water resources quantity are the watersheds of the following rivers: r. Ticha up to village Ticha,
river Draganovska, r. Gyurla, r. Gerila and r. Eleshnitsa. In terms of the vulnerability of the water quality to

these categories only watershed of the r. Ticha at village Ticha and part of the watersheds of rivers Gerila
and Eleshnitsa are referred. The area around the dam is moderately vulnerable concerning water quantity
and quality. Over the forecast period - 2020 - 2050 this area falls in the category of highly vulnerable with
respect to water quantity, while in terms of water quality it remains unchanged.
Very low
low Medium Hige Very hige
Figure 20 Map of vulnerability of the water quantity and quality (according WEI and WSHI) - period
1961 to 1990
Very low
low Medium Hige Very hige
Figure 21 Map of vulnerability of the water quantity and quality (according WEI and WSHI) - period
2021 -2050

Management options for mitigating vulnerability of drinking water resources
Impact of forests on vulnerability of water quantity and quality in climate change
conditions
The expected negative climate changes, will result in shifts of plants, animals and habitats to the higher
altitudes; shift of plants, animals and habitats in south-north direction; soil moisture decrease; increase of
vegetation period duration; increase of the number of the invasive species; losses of wetlands, etc. Water
quality and quantity are influenced by the tree species, forest type, forest cover within different parts of
watersheds, forest management practices, etc.
Figure 22 Distribution of the major tree species in the watershed of Ticha dam: sp – Scots pine, s - Spruce,
bp - Austrian pine, bch - beech, hor - Hornbeam, soak - Sessile oak, oak - other oaks, bl – Acacia
Zone up to 500 m a.s.l.
The most vulnerable to climate change in the watershed of Ticha dam are coniferous forests, esp. coniferous
plantations established outside of their natural habitat. The total area of these forests is 2800, 9 ha -
Austrian pine – 1557. 4 ha, Scots pine - 1109, 7 ha and spruce - 127, 1 ha and Douglas fir - only 6, 8 ha. The
Silver Lime covers 20,1 ha of the watershed. It could be expected that Silver lime will increase their area
within the zone to 500 m a.s.l. and thus will ameliorate the water preservation and water retention
functions processes of the forests. Observations show that the regeneration processes in prevailing part of

the coppice stands will recover with the common and oriental hornbeams - 113,6 ha, as well as shrubs
species - hawthorn, blackthorn.
Forest management practices will be restricted within areas of Hornbeams forests as they are of high
conservation value. As Hornbeam is well adaptive species with good regeneration ability, management
activities to increase its area, need to be implemented. The total area of high-stem forests is 7217,2 ha,
which is 43% of the total afforested area. They are presented mainly by oak and beech. Increase of Silver
Lime participation in these forests is expected. This will improve the structure of the forest stands and thus –
their water-preserving functions.
Zone above 500 m a.s.l.
The total area of the zone, higher than 500 m above sea level is 23477.22 ha. In this zone 59 % of the forests
are high-stem deciduous forests including 10,1% mixed forests, which supposes more favourable water-
protective functions. Oak forests which currently occupy 7558.2 ha, will play a key role in the future. The
sessile oak forest have the highest share – 4627.0 ha, followed by the Hungarian Oak – 2777.4 ha, and
Turkey Oak – with 152.6 ha.
Observation of the beech forests distributions, show that they occupy 5536.0 ha, of which 1921.8 are
covered by Oriental Beech. The Oriental Beech is rather more thermophile than the European Beech and is
expected to extend their area.
Both pessimistic and realistic scenarios for the watershed of the Ticha reservoir show that oak forests will
increase their area, shifting upwards of the mountain and will occupy the areas currently occupied by beech
forests. The European Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and the Oriental Beech (Fagus orientalis Lipsky) are late
successional species in expansion and, being acetophilic species, will preserve their participation. It is more
realistic to expect formation of mixed forest with lower growing indexes for the beech species. This trend
will be however favorable for the water balance and the forest water protective functions.
The coniferous plantations cover 2833.1 ha. At the higher altitudes, their sanitary condition is expected to
deteriorate at later stages. Their transformation might be postponed until the age of 40-50 years.
Water preserving functions of forests within the watershed of the Ticha reservoir
The main water preserving functions of the forests in Ticha watershed are to protect the water from
pollutants, to improve the water quality of the water bodies, which are discharged in the reservoir and to
ensure the planned water quantities.
The forests of the watershed with their structure and formed from them leaf mass, branches, acorns, seeds,
dead debris, etc. develop a kind of a “filter” for the surface water preservation. They protect the reservoir
from pollutants in the form of insoluble particles, detached from the soil and moved by wind. Forests reduce
soil erosion. The forests to a great extent guarantee the annual amount of water in the dam and the
required minimum water for maintaining the ecological balance of the river “Big Kamchia”. The forests limit
the solid particles input to the water bodies and play an important role in the prevention of the water
quality, ensuring the sustainable use of water supply for drinking purposes in future.
The hydrological efficiency of the forests is related to the re-distribution of the falling rains, which is mainly
affected by their retention by the plant crowns and forest litter, by the exposition, age of the plants as well
as by their management.
The tree crowns retain a significant part of the rains water, which leads to a decrease in the soil water
content. The amounts of the retained rain water by the crowns (interception) of coniferous plants in
Bulgaria aged from 20 to 30 years vary from 25 to about 38 %.
In a region closed to the watershed of the Ticha dam (Northeastern Bulgaria, Suvorovo) it is found out that
for 20 to 24-old plantations of black pine at 505 mm annual precipitation, the interception is 32.6% while in
Turkey oak forests the average annual interception is from 12.0 to 20.7 % and in the period November-May
almost all amount of precipitations reaches the soil (Raev, 1989).
For the deciduous plants in the watershed, the predominant ones are older plants (above 80 years) – about
66%. It can be expected that the territories covered by this type of forest possess good water-protective

properties. These forests have also significant buffer capacities in relation to the preservation of water
purity. Regarding the conifer plantations, 85% of them are at age of about 40 years. To increase their water
retention ability thinning is necessary to be performed.
Some studies show that more significant vegetation cover changes are expected to occur at the zone located
at about 500 m above the sea level. That is why we suppose that the water protection zone (zone II) for the
protection of the water from reservoirs should be spread on the territories from the riverbank to the 500 m
above sea level height. The riverbank of the Ticha reservoir is the longest one – up to 100 km. At this zone,
the change of the land use, road and building constructions, rented areas for agricultural uses, etc. should
not be allowed. In cases of insect attacks or other natural disasters a fast afforestation of the open areas is
allowed in order to control the erosion processes.
The boundaries of water protection zone III should include the remaining territories of the watershed - 500
m above the sea level. Planned activities in this zone should be consistent with the forests' preservation
functions, while the forestry management activities need to be directed to improving the water regulative
and water preservative roles of the forests.
Recommendations for preserving the quantity and quality of the water resources
through forest management practices in the watershed of the Ticha reservoir
The established tendencies and prospects in the watershed of the Ticha reservoir are as follows:
− a changes of the total forest area are not expected in the region of the watershed
− dryness of the coniferous and coppice forests is expected
Forest area is expected to change in future under the influence of:
- the ongoing reforestation processes that benefit the deciduous species – mainly of the genus
Quercus
− secondary succession, accompanying the reforestation of the areas covered by coniferous
plantations, reached the maturity and reforestation stage
− the wildfire risk increase
− changes related to the water runoff regime in relation to the temperature changes and expected
torrential rainfalls
− a growing risk for the climatic extremes: heat waves, strong precipitation events (including heavy
snow), drought and wildfires
− unfavourable consequences for quality of the surface and underground water resources
− pollution of the water sources and the accompanying diseases
The management of forests, threatened by climate change should be carried out by stands/ plantations,
depending on the specific sylvicultural characteristics specific for the given habitat types. The guideline
principles should be the development of such forests, which reduce the surface water runoff and increase
groundwater. In this respect we recommend that all forests from the watershed of Ticha dam situated up to
500 m a.s.l. to be included into the category of forests with special water-protective function.
“Srechenska bara” watershed
The explored “Srechenska bara” watershed, is located in the alpine zone of the West Balkan Mountains. The
altitude of the drainage basins of the separate tributaries varies between 950 and 1797 m. The total area of
the drainage basin is 10 220 ha and 91% of it is forested. Broadleaved tree species are dominant- 86,72%.
Water protectiже forests average site class is 2,6, average age- 102 years, growing stock /ha - 296 m3/ha
and average increment- 27 323 m3 or 2,93 m3/ha.
The annual average rainfall amount is about 990 mm. The spring and summer rainfall maximum,
respectively in May and June, and the winter minimum in February are most influential on the seasonal
rainfall distribution.

The water catchment is conducted by a system of water captures organized in two main collective
derivations.
• South derivation- located on the southern slopes of the mountain at about 1400 m, which collects
its waters using two collective canals. “Srebarna- Ginski” canal and “Iskrecki” canal. The total area of
this derivation’s drainage basin is 3895 ha with project catchable water amount about Q= 1400
l/sec, at built-up amount of hydroelectricity facility- Qbuilt-up = 1900 l/sec.
• North derivation- located on the northern slopes of the mountain at about 870 m. It collects water
from the feeders of Ogosta river using two collective canals: “Strugarnica” canal and “Zanozhene”
canal. The total area of that derivation’s water basins is 5246 ha with project catchable water
amount Q ≅ 1300 l/sec, at built-up amount of hydroelectricity facility- Qbuilt-up = 2800 l/sec. This
hydroelectric facility processes the water which has already went through “Petrohan” hydroelectric
facility. “Vreshtitza” derivation also leads its waters towards the dam. It captures the water of the
upper feeders of Vreshtitza and Rakovitza rivers using four water catchments in a zone with altitude
between 760 and 560 m. The total area of its drainage basin is 875 ha and the catched water
amount is Q ≅ 97 l/sec.
Apart from the water from these derivations, water from its own drainage basin flow into the dam. The area
of its drainage basin is 225 ha and the average altitude is 460 m.
Water protective forests in “Srechenska Bara” watershed
The total afforested area of the drainage basins is 9312 ha, which is about 91% of the total water catchment
area. Most common tree species are beech (Fagus sylvatica), spruce (Picea abies), Scotch pine (Pinus
sylvestris) and fir (Abies alba). Beech occupies 7 817, 61 ha or 84% of the total afforested area, spruce- 675,
95 ha(7,26%), Scotch pine- 358, 57 ha (3,85%) and the fir- 190,55 ha or 2% of the area. These four tree
species occupy 97% of the whole protective forest area. VIII age class stands are dominant (over 140 years
old)- 33,5 %, followed by VII age class (age 121- 140)- 18,14% and II age class stands (age 21 to 40)- 11, 76%
(Figure 23).
Figure 23 Distribution of forests according to age classes in “Srechenska bara” watershed
The total growing stock is 2 759 330 m3 and about 50% of it is in stands over 120 years old. (Figure 24)

Figure 24 Distribution of growing stock according to age classes in “Srechenska bara” watershed
Impact of climate change on forests in the “Srechenska bara” watershed and
recommended silvicultural activities
The forests in “Srechenka bara” watershed are located mainly on the northern slopes of the Balkan
Mountain. The main water accumulation channels are located at about 700 m a.s.l. According to (Raev et al.
2011), this mountain region falls within the area of forest vegetation low to moderately (in the pessimistic
scenario) vulnerable to climate change. Habitats are fresh and moist and they will not change significantly
even at the expected changes in precipitations and temperatures. River flows will continue to be with a
spring maximum.
The forests in water protective areas (WPA) under the altitude of 700 meters are moderately to highly
vulnerable to climate change. Nevertheless these forests will not be significantly affected by the expected
climate change as the main flow is formed in the upper part of the watershed.
Entire catchment area falls within Natura 2000 areas which defines restrictions to the management regimes.
The main tree species that dominates the forest vegetation is the beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), which occupies
87% of the area of the watershed. In the scenarios examined by (Raev et al. 2011), Kostov and Rafailova
(2009) and others, the impact of climate change are noted following major risks and appropriate adaptive
interventions for stands:
1. Increased damage in forest stands from heavy (wet) snow, strong winds and late frosts. Particularly
vulnerable are the young, dense, even-aged beech stands, which occupy about 2500 ha. Water
losses by evapotranspiration in these forests are great. Conducting of thinnings in them is a priority,
with intensity at a single intervention up to 25%. Vulnerable are also the stands of very high age
(over 140 years), which occupy about 4,500 ha. Most of them are hardly accessible, forming so
called "closed basins". These “old forests", possess better water protective functions. On the other
hand the century-old trees are highly vulnerable to extreme weather events. It is necessary to
strengthen the monitoring and to invest in supporting heterogeneous structure of the stands by
selective thinning or irregular shelterwood with intensity up to 20%.
2. Increased risk of erosion on the affected by natural disturbances or logging areas, especially on
steep slopes, as prevailing in the watershed. The latter is supported by the existing brown forest
soils with relatively deep but sandy (light) transitional (B) horizon that is easy to wash up;
3. Loss of increment and reduction of potential timber volume for harvesting due to possible adverse
weather conditions. It should be added also possible deterioration in the quality of part of the

harvested wood due to shortage of the time for its utilization. Both events will lead to negative
financial results for the owners and managers of the forest;
4. Loss of funds due to complicated management regime - the application of more sophisticated
silvicultural systems requires higher qualification of staff, more complex management of the forest
and more expensive felling;
5. Fire risk in forest stands will increase periodically due to expectations of prolonged droughts in
summer and autumn and the presence of larger amount of dead wood. Risks of fires exist also in
subalpine meadows. It is necessary to build up fire protection infrastructure, which does not
currently exist in the majority of the area.
The available about 10% of Scots pine and spruce plantations are currently in the stage of intense
transformation to mixed beech-coniferous stands, which is in accordance with the prescriptions for beech
habitats in "Natura 2000".
The remaining 3% of other tree species are coppice oak and hornbeam forests located in zone I and II of
water-protected area of “Srechenska bara” dam. They fall in areas potentially highly vulnerable to climate
change (Raev et al., 2011). They require more stringent protection from fires that can be transferred from
adjacent agricultural and other (urban) areas (ground monitoring). The management activities in these
forests should lead to smooth conversion of small areas of coppice stands into high stem ones. Since in this
area hornbeam (Carpinus betulus L.) participates in the composition of low stem beech and oak stands and
it is highly adaptive to warmer conditions the expansion of its participation in the composition of future
stands should be tolerated.
It can be stated that the forest vegetation in the watershed of “Srechenska bara” dam has the adaptive
capacity to the expected climate changes in the region. The forest management will include long-term
gradual and selective cutting and will ensure permanent coverage of the territory with uneven
(heterogeneous) forest.
In the future the question about the provision of water quality and quantity from “Srechenska bara” dam
will be relevant due to the fact that it is located in the lower zone where temperatures will increase
significantly. This leads to increasing of water temperature in the dam. On the other hand the higher
summer temperatures will increase consumption of water for domestic and other uses.
Velingrad municipality catchment
The investigated area is located in Western Rhodope Mountain. The altitude varies between 900m and
1000m. The annual average rainfall is between 750 mm and 960 mm. The maximum is in May and June and
the minimum is in August and September. The population of Velingrad municipality receives drinking water
from Batak and Belmeken dam and from several underground sources situated in the region.
Water protective forests in Velingrad municipality
There are 1314,5 ha water protective forests in Velingrad municipality situated in the territory of State
Hunting Enterprise (SHE) “Alabak” (522,3 ha) and SHE “Chepino” (792,2 ha). Most common tree species are
Beech (Fagus sylvatica), Spruce (Picea abies) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris). Spruce is most widely spread
and occupies 567,7 ha or about 43,83 % of the water protective forests, followed by beech - 250,7
ha(19,36%) and Scots pine- 240,60 ha or 18,58 %. Those three tree species occupy 81,76% of the total
afforested area (Figure 25). Coniferous tree species are dominant- 72 % of the total area. Water protective
forests average age is 95 years, the growing stock is 217 m
3
/ha and the average increment is 3136 m
3
or 2,42
m
3
/ha.

Scotch pine
18,58%
Fir
2,69%
Pine
6,01%
Beech
19,36%
Durmast Oak
8,30%
Other
1,24%
Spruce
43,83%
Figure 25 Distribution of tree species in the water protective forests of Velingrad municipality
Dominate stands of VIth age class (age 101- 120)- 26,8% , followed by Vth age class (age 81- 100)- 16,9 %
and VIIth(age 121-140)- 15,4%.(Figure 26) Over 70% of the stands are mature.
Figure 26 Distribution according to age classes of water protective forests in Velingrad municipality
The total growing stock is 281 410 m3. About 50% of it is in stands between 80 and 120 years old (Figure 27).

Figure 27 Distribution of growing stock according to age classes of water protective forests in Velingrad
municipality
Impact of climate change on forests in the watershed of Velingrad and
recommendations for their management
In Velingrad watershed forests in “Alabak” mountain are located on various slopes with different inclination,
mainly with east and north aspects. Catchment’s areas are located over 900 meters above sea level.
According to (Raev et al. 2011), the forests at this elevation are slightly to moderately vulnerable to climate
change. The main tree species are: Scots pine, spruce, fir and beech, which are indigenous species in this
area with a good adaptive potential and that build mostly mixed stands. Expected climate changes in the
region are related to reducing the amount of rainfall within 10%, i.e. from about 900 mm to 750-800 mm
per year, and temperature increase averagely with about 3 degrees. This will not change significantly the de-
Marton index, which in this zone will remain at a value of around and above 40, i.e. conditions will continue
to favor the existing forest tree vegetation. The river flow will continue to be with a spring maximum.
Territories of the water protective zone under of 900 meters a.s.l., are in the belt of the low oak forests
which are moderately vulnerable to climate change. The main flow is formed in the upper part of the
watershed where the vulnerability of forest vegetation is relatively low.
The area of the whole watershed falls within Natura 2000, which imposes some restrictions on the forest
management regimes.
According to the examined scenarios (Raev et al., 2011), the impact of climate change could be expresses by
the following main risks that will need appropriate adaptive interventions, concerning the main tree species
in the region:
- Increase damage in forest plantations of heavy (wet) snow, strong winds and late frosts.
Particularly vulnerable are the young, dense, even-aged stands and coniferous plantations, which occupy
approximately 200 ha. Water losses by evapotranspiration in these forests are big. Conducting of thinnings
in them is a priority with intensity at a single intervention up to 25%.
Vulnerable are also the old stands (over 140 years), which occupy approximately 300 ha. These “old forests",
possess better water protective functions. On the other hand the century-old trees are highly vulnerable to
extreme weather events. It is necessary to strengthen the monitoring on their condition and to invest in
supporting heterogeneous structure by selective felling and irregular shelterwood felling with intensity up to
20%.
- Increased risk of erosion on areas affected by natural disturbances or on felling areas, especially on
steep slopes as prevalent in the watershed. This risk increases also due to the existing brown forest soils
with relatively powerful but sandy (light) transition (B) horizon, which washes up easily.
- The expected climate changes will create better conditions for the growth of Scots pine above
1200 m a.s.l. In the middle mountain belt beech will replace coniferous species (spruce, fir) as it is more
adaptive to prolonged droughts. This process should be properly controlled through forest management
practices in order to keep the mixed composition of the stands and their heterogeneous structure.
- Loss in increment and reduced timber volume due to possible adverse weather conditions. It
should be added also possible deterioration of the harvested wood. Both events will lead to negative
financial results for the owners and managers of the forest.
- Loss of funds due to the complicated management regime. The data from experimental station
Bazenika show that the most appropriate way of managing coniferous forests in the watershed is
implementation of selective fellings. (Rafailova 2003). Silvicultural systems for establishment of
heterogeneous stands ensuring continuous forest coverage of the territory require highly skilled personnel
and more expensive organization of fellings. Forest owners will require additional investments for the
implementation of the above described practices;

- Fire risk in forest stands will increase periodically due to the expected prolonged droughts in
summer and autumn and due to the increased quantity of dry wood and litter. The same danger exists for
subalpine meadows in the area. Improvement of existing fire protection facilities is necessary.
The remaining 15% territories are occupied by oak and hornbeam coppice stands (9%) and black pine stands
(about 6%), which are situated in the I
st
and II
nd
belt of water protected area and are highly vulnerable to
climate change (Raev 2011). They require more stringent fire protection regarding fires that can be
transferred from adjacent agricultural or other urban areas. Forest management activities in these forests
should lead to their transformation to high stem ones. Since hornbeam (Carpinus betulus L.) in this area is
highly adaptive to warmer climate its expansion in the composition of future stands should the tolerated.
In general, forests in Velingrad watershed can be successfully adapted to expected climate changes in the
region. No serious problems for the natural regeneration of forest stands are expected. In the future more
relevant will be the problem for the water supply from Velingrad watershed because of the expected
increase in the consumption due to higher summer temperatures.
In order to avoid problems for the natural regeneration of forest stands a Standard for the management of
Water protective forests is proposed. This action is part of the implementation of WP5 on national/regional
level/. The implementation of the recommendations and suggested standards will guarantee the supply of
clean drinking water in the country.
Proposal of a Standard for management of water protective forests
In Bulgarian legislation there are no clear and unified measures and regimes for forest management in water
protected areas or watersheds. In many cases, these practices are arranged in separate catalogs (case
studies, lists), but higher level is the development of standards for their application. In such cases,
appropriate criteria and indicators are those the performance of which guarantees in full scale the
ecosystem functions of forests for sustainable drinking water supply.
Table 6. Standard for management of water protective forests
Principle 1. The management of Water Protective Forests (WPF) is implemented in accordance
with the legislation and ensures full performance of their specific functions
CRITERIA INDICATORS
1.1.1.
All responsible administrative
persons
are familiar with
the
relevant regulatory requirements and their obligations.
1.1.2.
In the responsible administrations
t
here are copies of the
applicable laws available for staff usage.
1.1.3.
The responsible administrations reflect and report the
established incompatibilities with the law.
1.1.4.
The responsible persons are familiar with all relevant
international conventions
1.1. The management of WPF
meets all national laws and
local administrative
requirements and is open for
improvement
1.1.5.
The responsible administrations have established a
monitoring system
(
documented periodic inspections
.)
1.2.1. There are
legal documents proving
the
ownership or the
right
to
manage the forest area
.
1.2.2
Legislative act
declaring the
territory
as
Water Protective
Forest (
WPF)
is
valid
.
1.2. The long-term land use
rights and the restrictions on
them (e.g. deed, customary
rights or lease agreements) are
unequivocally proven and they
are managed according to
management plan
1.2.3.
Valid plan for management of the water protective forest
territories, prepared in accordance with the national legislation,
is available and contain written description of the management

purposes.
1.2.4.
The exact boundaries of all properties are labeled or
clearly marked on the terrain and on maps (eg, along the natural
boundaries
).
1.2.5.
The responsible administrations keep registers for conflicts
on property rights and use
.
Principle 2: Forest stands structure in WPF. The structure of forest stands supports the protection
of soil, water flow regulation, protection of biodiversity and ensures sustainable protection of
the adaptative capabilities of forest tree species and stands
CRITERIA INDICATOR
2.1.1. The d
ominant
forest tree vegetation is in its natural
habitat, corresponding to the site conditions.
2.1 The species composition of
stands in WPF ensures the
implementation of their
specific functions
2.1.1 Forests are mixed in composition or are in process of
formation of mixed stands.
2.2.1 In WPF s
tands with seed origin are dominant or are in the
process formation
2.2 The origin of the stands in
WPF ensures the
implementation of their specific
functions
2.2.2. In WPF s
tands with natural origin are dominant or are in
the process of formation.
2.3.1 Mature stands
predominate.
2.3.2 Rotation period of
even aged forests
in WPF is
increased by
at least one age class
2.3.3 In WPF u
neven-aged forests dominate or are in the process
of formation
2.3.4 In WPF at least 10% of the total stock is dead wood
2.3 The stand age in WPF
ensures the implementation of
their specific functions
2.3.5
Old, hollowed and withered trees are left in the forest,
taking into account national requirements for work safety.
2.4.1 S
tands with
heterogeneous
vertical and horizontal structure
or with multilayer
structure dominate.
2.4.2 S
tands with average canopy closure of 0.6-0.8 dominate or
are in the process of formation
in WPF
2.4. The structure of the WPF is
in accordance with their main
purpose
2.4.3 In the stands of WPF could be found
vital trees of all
DBH
classes
2.5.1
The total area of infrastructural facilities in the water
protected areas
does not exceed 3% of the area suitable for
afforestation.
2.5.2 No
afforestation
is applied on
natural open spaces-
meadows, bogs
, rocks, etc..
2.5. Fragmentation of WPF is
not permitted and is limited.
Guidelines to ensure the
functions of WPF for: erosion
control, minimizing the damage
from logging, road construction
and other mechanical
disturbances, as well as water
2.5.3 There is
15 m buffer strip
around the hydrographic network
where no activities are performed
. The strip is designed from the
edge of the side slope towards the inner part of the stand
.

2.5.4.
The location of existing and planned forest roads
, bridges,
warehouses and
routes for transportation of harvested timber
corresponds
to the scale and intensity of management activities.
2.5.5.
During construction of forest roads
for
passing through
elements of the hydrographic network
,
actions against drainage,
flow deviation or water pollution
should be
taken.
2.5.6. Before performing of big scale forestry activities such as forest
road constructions, maintenance of drainage systems, etc. the
contracting authorities have conducted environmental impact
assessment and the contractors are informed and posses copies of the
assessments.
2.5.7. In c
onstruction of new roads the following should be
considered:
1)
New roads are preliminary planned and mapped
taking into consideration the existing water bodies
.
2) The
terrain features are not changed or not are slightly modified by
the project,
3)
Roads are
designed and constructed on
natural
terraces
,
ridges and
low-grade slopes.
4)
Roads should not pass
through ecologically sensitive areas.
5)
The construction
activities observe erosion control requirements.
6)
The number
of river crossings is minimized.
7)
. Roads and walkways should
not be located close to rivers
or streams.
conservation are developed
and implemented
2.5.8.
In the river beds no wastes
from site preparation and any
other activities shall not be placed.
Principle 3: Silvicultural activities in water protective forests. The silvicultural activities in WPF
aim to improve and maintain the structure of forest stands to ensure their sustainable and
optimal water protection functions
CRITERIA
INDICATOR
3.1.1
Thinnings ensure domination of indigenous tree species
corresponding to the site conditions.
3.1.2
Thinnings ensure formation of sustainable stands with high
structural diversity. Thinnings are implemented unevenly in the
area.
3.1.3
Thinnings in belt III of water protected areas are with
intensity up to 25%, in belt II - up to 20% and in belt I are not
allowed.
3.1.4
Thinnings ensure restoration of the indigenous forest tree
vegetation and conservation
of the overall
genetic diversity
.
3.1. Activities in young stands
in WPF ensure the formation of
viable heterogeneous forests
which will perform their specific
functions in long term period.
3.1.5.
Combined method of thinnings, predominantly from
above, are planed and conducted
. This helps the
regeneration on
small areas in belt II of water protected zone
.
3.2.1
Regeneration fellings are conducted in belt III of water
protected areas and outside their borders
.
3.2 Sylvicultural activities in
mature stands ensure
successful seed regeneration of
indigenous tree species,
3.2.2.
Regeneration fellings ensure and tolerate natural
regeneration of native tree species.

3.2.3
Long-term shelterwood system is used with regeneration
period over 30 years for coppice
forests
and over 40 years for
high-stem forests.
3.2.4. Selective thinnings are used.
3.2.5 In stands where the shelterwood system already has started, the
final phase of the system is not implemented even for coppice forests.
3.2.6 Small group of century-old trees (at least 5) are left without any
treatment (Old growth trees).
3.2.7 The activities in coppice forests are directed to their
transformation into seed stands.
formation and sustainable
maintenance of heterogeneous
forest structure
3.2.8.
The spread of introduced in the past exotic species is
monitored and, if necessary,
measures are taken to control
or
eliminate them.
3.3. The protective functions of
marginal mountain forest
ecosystems have to be ensured
3.3.1.
Stands and
forest areas
in the subalpine belt
, and
the 200
meter
timberline are
mapped
and
any
commercial
activities are
not
conducted there.
Principle 4: Afforestation activities in WPF. Afforestation and other silvicultural activities support
rapid restoration and long-term implementation of water protective functions of forests
CRITERIA INDICATOR
4.1.
1 In case of natural disturbances part of the area should be
left to natural succession, unless there is a risk of rapid
degradation of the habitat, as well as in belt I of water
protective area.
4.1.2 Afforestation is performed in group schemes, incl. pioneer tree
species corresponding to the natural regeneration.
4.1.3
No afforestation is conducted along the slopes of the
hydrographic network
,
unless the same is not part of an
integrated project for establishment of supportive facilities.
4.1 Afforestation activities
ensure establishment of vital
heterogeneous forests
corresponding to the site
environmental conditions
4.1.4
If supplementation of natural regeneration or
replenishment of previously established plantations is required,
native tree species and origins collected at lower altitudes are
used.
Principle 5: Protection of WPF. Activities to protect forests with water protective functions
ensure their vitality and long-term provision of the ecosystem services
CRITERIA INDICATOR
5.1.1 Workers/employees are instructed in emergency
procedures such as accidents, fires or spills of fuel and
lubricants.
5.1.2 Everyone in WPF should be aware on the prohibited
activities in these forests.
5.1 Qualifications of the staff
admitted for activities in WPF
5.1.3. Practitioners who work in WPF are trained to implement
adaptive management

5.2.1 In areas with a high danger of fire firebreaks on the ridge
parts are traced, shaped and maintained with breadth 1.5 times
the height of adjacent stands.
5.2.2 In WPF the use of chemicals for cultivation, protection
against diseases, pests etc., and fertilization is not allowed.
5.2.3 In using petrol chain saws and other mechanized tools
biodegradable oils are applied.
5.2.4 The forestry machinery and the operators of mechanized
tools are equipped with absorbents.
5.2.5 Efforts are being made by the manager to control and
prevent the disposal of all types of waste in forests, including
waste from visitors.
5.2 Protection of WPA from
fires and pollution
5.2.6 Any leakage of oil / fuel from the forestry machinery is not
allowed.
5.3.1 In WPA livestock grazing is prohibited.
5.3.2. At high density of game populations the forest
regeneration areas are fenced.
5.3 Protection of the forest
territories
5.3.4. In WPF no intensive game breeding stations and hunting
traps are established.
Principle 6: Harvesting activities in WPF aim improvement of their specific functions
CRITERIA INDICATOR
6.1.1 The access of vehicles and carts in WPF shall be governed
and shall be subject to the relevant permissions. Access to belt I
WPA is according to the requirements of Ordinance 3 of Water
Act.
6.1 The access in WPF is
regulated and controlled
6.1.2 Movement of any vehicles in wet soils is not allowed.
6.2.1 During harvesting activities, the undergrowth and the
standing trees left should be protected.
6.2.2 Close-to-nature technologies must be applied for the
transportation of harvested timber and temporary storages
must be outside the belt I of WPA, buffer strips, hydrographic
network and other vulnerable areas (springs, marshes, slopes,
etc.)..
6.2.3 Forestry equipment for removal and transportation of
timber uses only roads incl. technology breaks
6.2.4 Percentage of the logging wastes and of the brushwood is
not removed out of the stands, in accordance with the existing
regulation.
6.2 Logging in WPF is done
according to the regulations
and with the aim to improve
and maintain the specific forest
functions
6.2.5 The wastes from logging and the brushwood should not
contaminate water courses and regeneration areas.

Methodology for valuation of forest ecosystem service “supply of drinking water“
In the suggested methodology the value of the ecosystem service is evaluated as equal to the loss of
incomes from the wood production of the forest owner, i.e. the forest ecosystem implement only water
protective function. The legislation, regarding protection of forest owner rights /Forest and Water acts/
gives the following alternatives:
• Forest with 100% wood production function – the forest ownership should be 100% economically
managed, concerning the wood utilization
• Forest territories in zone I of water protected area - the forest ownership should be 100%
economically managed, concerning the water supply
• the forest territories falling in Belt I of water protected zone, economic realization of the
ownership should be insured 100% by water consumption chain;
• in Belt II of water protected zone, economic realization of ownership to be done with priority to
water protection than timber production expressed in relation 75:25 %;
• in Belt III of water protected zone economic realization of ownership to be done equally in ratio
75:25 % through two production functions;
•
in all forest territories of the country which are managed by imposed priority of timber
production to water-protection function the economic realization of property is to consider this
priority with ratio 75:25 %
Figure 28 Forests with water protective function – vertical projection

Methodology – steps:
1. Evaluation of investments in forest stands grown for timber production
2. Assessment of annual forest rent (R) for owners
3. Expert suggestion for forest rent apportionment between forest owner and forest user
 at different age managed forest (selective system of management)
u
FVv
NFC
Wzcur
v
year
−
=
where NFC is the net financial contribution from the stand managed at different ages, BGN/ha;
Wzvcur– the monetary value of 1 m3 timber from the current increment in BGN;
FVv – the updated value of the permanent expenses,BGN;
u- the period in which the current increment is accumulated, u=10 years
 in an even-aged managed forests
u
FVv - r)c.(1 -r) Wq.(1 ... r)(1 Wb.r) Wa.(1Wu
uq-ub-ua-u
++++++++
=NFCг
Where NFC is the net financial contribution from the even-age managed stand – BGN/ha;
Wu– the monetary value of the timber from regenerative felling in u year, BGN;
Wa, Wb,... и Wq – the monetary value of timber from thinning;
r – the norm of profitability of alternative investments for the period, a percentage, represented as a part of
1,0
u – the age of the stand, years
The annual forest rent from the forests (R)
(e+d) – the expenses of 1 m3 timber for cutting and primary woodworking and transport (logistic)
expenditures of timber to the nearest warehouse, BGN/m
3
Qyear – the quantity of timber harvested for 1 year from the current increment in the selection system, or
from the regeneration felling and thinning in even-age management system, BGN/m
3
The annual forest rent from the water protective forests in “Srechenska bara” watershed is:
 in an uneven aged forest
R = 64.00 BGN/hа/year
 in an even-aged managed forests
R = 184.00 BGN/hа/year
year
year
Qde
r
NFC
R).(
)1(
+−
+
=

Example: application of the methodology in “Srechenska bara” watershed in uneven-aged and even-aged
water protective forest stands
Table 7. Distribution of income from uneven-aged water protective forests in “Srechenska bara”
watershed
Income Area Income
I F from the whole area
BGN/ha hа BGN/year
Forest owner Forest user owner user
I belt (100:0) 63,89 0,00 723,44 46220,17
0,00
II belt (50:50) 31,94 31,94 7867,41
251322,19
251322,19
III belt
(25:75) 15,97 47,92 452,15 7221,90
21665,71
TOTAL 33,70 30,19 9043,00
304764,27
272987,90
Table8. Distribution of income from uneven aged water protective forests in “Srechenska bara”
watershed
Income Area Income
I F from the whole area
BGN/ha hа BGN/year
Forest
owner Forest user Forest owner Forest user
I belt (100:0) 184,22 0 723 133269
0
II belt (50:50) 92 92 7867 724648
724648
III belt (25:75) 46 138 452 20823
62470
TOTAL 97,17 87,04 9 043 878 740
787 117
Having in mind these quantities and the made accounts we can draw the conclusion that the forest
owners should receive rent income from the price of water between 0.01 and 0.03 BGN/m3.
Transnational strategy for mitigation of vulnerability of water resources in
southeast Europe
The elaborated transnational strategy incorporates the achieved project results, good practices and
management options for mitigation of vulnerability of water resources in southeast Europe. It identifies
important strategic issues regarding vulnerability of water quantity and quality and protection and
preservation of water resources on transnational level to be used for national or regional planning. As a
principle, management in the whole region should be based on:
• EU directives (Drinking Water, Water Framework, Groundwater, Urban Waste Water, Nitrate, IPPC
...) ensuring sustainable water use, clean drinking water and protection of sources;
• EU strategies (Blueprint, White Paper on Climate Change, Danube Strategy...) providing integration
and cooperation.
The guiding principle is: “Drinking water in sufficient quantity and quality will be available for the whole
population even under changing climatic conditions” (Blueprint “Safeguard European Water”, EU 2020
strategy).

Strategic issues to be solved:
• Current and/or future water scarcity endangering safe drinking water supply of substantial
population (permanent, seasonal, large scale, scattered, large cities).
• Current and/or future water quality problem endangering safe drinking water supply of substantial
population (polluted drinking water resources, pollution evolving risk for drinking water resources,
significant load of pollutants).
• Availability of substantial resources in good quality providing future drinking water source.
• Protection of existing and future drinking water sources (policies, strategies, legislation, plans and
practices)
• Exploitation of ecosystem services as natural basis of the protection of drinking water resources
(distribution of land cover in different safeguard zones, stability of functionality)
• Reliability of drinking water supply system (treatment, water loss, secondary pollution, financing,
policies , strategies, legislation, safety plans, practices)
• Socio-economic conditions (GDP, employment, crisis, willingness to pay, affordability, awareness,
pricing and cost recovery principle)
• Governance (authorisation, data bases and monitoring, incentives, decision making, cross cutting
issues, role of NGOs)
• Level of knowledge (professional experiences and education, availability of good practices, research
on impact of CC, future land use and socio-economic condition, decisions under uncertainty).