Technical Report

IPCC, 2019: Summary for Policymakers. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. In press. (Note: contributing author to Chapter 5: Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities .

  • EThekwini Municipality; University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
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... for future phytoplankton productivity Polar regions are more vulnerable than the global average to ongoing climate changes (Pörtner et al. 2019). The partial CO2 pressure in the atmosphere has already increased from 286 to 420 μatm since the pre-industrial time and climate models project that it will continue to rise up to 700 μatm by the year 2100, if CO2 emissions accelerate with the same tendency (Pörtner et al. 2022). ...
... As SAM progresses into a more positive phase, the circumpolar vortex increases in strength and moves southward . A more positive SAM and additional abiotic factors resulting from climate change (Pörtner et al. 2019;Henley et al. 2020) will substantially alter multiple controls of marine primary productivity (e.g. TM, nutrient and light availability) and phytoplankton community composition (Greaves et al. 2020). ...
... In areas surrounding Antarctica, projections are more complex. In fact, the Antarctic Sea ice paradox was drawn out of the observation that since 1979, no decline in sea ice around Antarctica has been reported (Pörtner et al. 2019). High eddy activity likely enables the SO to dissipate anthropogenic warming around Antarctica (Rackow et al. 2022). ...
Iron and manganese co-limitation - a potential driver of Southern Ocean phytoplankton ecology
... from 1981 to 2019 (Bindoff et al. 2019). Due to the continued burning of fossil fuels, global ocean temperatures are projected to increase up to a further 3°C by 2100 (Pörtner et al. 2019). These changes to global climatic conditions are also leading to an increased frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures, especially extreme warm periods during summer, termed heatwaves (Oliver et al. 2018;Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Lewis 2020). ...
... Since 2016, marine heatwaves have increased in frequency and duration resulting in 50-100% more days of marine heatwave annually across the globe (Frölicher et al. 2018;Oliver et al. 2018). As global warming continues, the occurrence of marine heatwave days is expected to further increase, becoming over five times more likely (Oliver et al. 2019;Pörtner et al. 2019). As the vast majority of marine species are ectothermic, marine heatwaves and the increase in average ocean temperature have the potential to negatively affect physiological processes and the fitness of individuals, and ultimately species' resilience in the future (Pörtner and Farrell 2008;Hofmann and Todgham 2010). ...
... Many of the factors leading to soil salinization are being exacerbated by climate change; projections indicate more persistent droughts, an acceleration of sea-level rise and more extreme weather events projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Pörtner et al. 2019). Salinization problems will become increasingly manifest in many coastal areas and wetlands, deltas of major rivers and small 1996-2005. ...
... Coastal blue carbon can contribute to various national Climate Change mitigation strategies, but its global reach is limited (offsetting <3% of current emissions). However, they do have several associated effects (or co-benefits) on some Climate Change impacts in the ocean (Pörtner et al., 2019). Specifically in Chile, co-benefits may be strengthened due to several comparative advantages: 1) Chile has one of the largest coastal marine surface areas, given its extensive coastline and the extension of its exclusive economic zone (EEZ); estimates of the ratio of the area of EEZ vs. continental area ranges between 0.65-0.86 ...
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This paper analyses the Chilean Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) proposal for the mitigation component. The methodological approach and the supporting ambition of a process carried out by the Chilean Government are assessed based on the scientific evidence available and local context. The analysis is developed by representatives of four ministries and a group of 21 researchers from six universities and research centers throughout the country. This exchange experience between the Government and the scientific community enables the identification of future challenges and opportunities for the Chilean transition in terms of mitigation. This process emerges from a bridging approach led by the recently assumed Minister of Science, Technology, Knowledge and Innovation under the presidency of the Government of Chile in the Conference of the Parties (COP25) for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). After a description of the methodological approach, key topics that have an impact on the NDC definition are identified and analyzed. These topics include technical, economical, and socio-environmental issues along with a description of the current socio-political context in the country. Additionally, the major uncertainties that would have the highest potential to modify the results and conclusions of this work are identified. Finally, a summary with the main conclusions and recommendations is presented. The analysis framework and key aspects identified in this exercise may be of value for other countries with similar institutional contexts.
The OECD Review of Fisheries 2020 aims to support policy makers and sector stakeholders in their efforts to deliver sustainable and resilient fisheries that can provide jobs, food, and livelihoods for future generations. The Review updates and analyses the OECD fisheries support estimate (FSE) database, the most comprehensive, detailed, and consistent collection of country level data on governments support to fisheries. It also presents and analyses newly-assembled data on the health of fish stocks; on the management of key stocks of commercial interest; and on the governance of fisheries across OECD countries and emerging economies with large fishing sectors. The report sheds light on how governments are managing fisheries to minimise detrimental impacts on resources and ecosystems, eliminate illegal, unregulated and unreported (IUU) fishing, while increasing the socio-economic benefits from fishing. It suggests priorities for action both at the national level and for the international community.
Seabirds are particularly vulnerable to the direct and indirect effects of climate change, however little is known about those impacts outside of the breeding season. This lack of knowledge is problematic because the conditions encountered during migration and wintering strongly shape seabird population dynamics. It is therefore essential to understand the effects of climate on their winter distribution and migration routes. Linking the distribution of organisms to environmental factors is therefore a primary task benefiting from the concept of energyscapes (defined as the variation of an organism's energy requirements across space according to environmental conditions) which has recently provided a mechanistic explanation for the distribution of many animals. In this context, we have predicted the current and future winter habitats of five species representing 75% of the seabird community in the North Atlantic (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla). To this aim, we monitored the movements of more than 1500 individuals to identify the birds' preferred habitats through resource selection functions based on the modeling of their energy expenditure and prey availability. Electronic tracking data were also overlaid with cyclone locations to map areas of high exposure for the seabird community across the North Atlantic. In addition, we explored the energetic consequences of seabird exposure to storms using a mechanistic bioenergetic model (Niche MapperTM). Finally, we examined the impact of total summer sea ice melt from 2050 on Arctic bird migration. Our analyses predict a northward shift in the preferred wintering areas of the North Atlantic seabird community, especially if global warming exceeds 2°C. Our results suggest that cyclonic conditions do not increase the energy requirements of seabirds, implying that they die from the unavailability of prey and/or inability to feed during cyclones. Finally, the melting sea ice at the North Pole may soon allow 29 species of Arctic birds to make new trans-Arctic migrations between the Atlantic and the Pacific. We also estimate that an additional 26 currently migratory species could remain in the Arctic year-round. This work illustrates how climate change could radically alter the biogeography of migratory species and we provide a methodological toolbox to assess and predict these changes by combining movement ecology and energetic physiology.
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