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Leveraging social media in the music industry: An investigation of Twitter analytics as an input for the prediction of song performance in music charts
Abstract
Social media is seen as a platform where people freely express their opinions about any matter, thus, generating a massive amount of user-generated content. Twitter undoubtedly has held its firm position among all social networking sites with an exponential number of users every year. Many studies were carried out by investigating the power of Twitter data in the health care industry, politics, sports, and music industry. Over the last five years, the music industry has experienced a shift in the way people listen to music since the introduction of online streaming music. Music lovers are prone to interact with their favorite songs and artists through social media, which provides enormous troves of insight not on just individual song and artists but also on how music consumers perceive any song. Therefore, many kinds of research have been carried out to investigate the impact of Twitter on forecasting songs revenue. However, there are only two studies that aimed to explore the predictive power of Twitter to song performance. This paper shed some light on this little-recognized topic by evaluating Twitter data in forecasting song popularity, which is demonstrated via the Billboard Top 100 chart.
The results indicated that while Twitter data can be utilized as a predictor of song popularity, incorporating Twitter and Billboard information (number of weeks the songs presented in the chart) enhance chart prediction than sole Twitter data. Findings of this study are beneficial to the music industry to discover song performance by real-live update trends on social media in order to propose an appropriate strategy for hit and non-hit songs.
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Machine learning and data mining are research areas of computer science whose quick development is due to the advances in data analysis research, growth in the database industry and the resulting market needs for methods that are capable of extracting valuable knowledge from large data stores. A vast amount of research work has been done in the multimedia area, targeting different aspects of data analytics, such as the capture, storage, indexing, mining, and retrieval of multimedia big data. However, very few research work provides a complete survey of the whole pine-line of the methods used in machine learning and data mining in the research problems. In this survey paper, we conduct a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art methods, algorithms machine learning and data mining in multimedia systems.
This paper describes a Naive-Bayesian predictive model for 2016 U.S. Presidential Election based on Twitter data. We use 33,708 tweets gathered since December 16, 2015 until February 29, 2016. We introduce a simpler data preprocessing method to label the data and train the model. The model achieves 95.8% accuracy on 10-fold cross validation and predicts Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders as Republican and Democratic nominee respectively. It achieves a comparable result to those in its competitor methods.
The most of the people have their account on social networks (e.g. Facebook, Vkontakte) where they express their attitude to different situations and events. Facebook provides only the positive mark as a like button and share. However, it is important to know the position of a certain user on posts even though the opinion is negative. Positive, negative and neutral attitude can be extracted from the comments of users. Overall information about positive, negative and neutral opinion can bring understanding how people react in a position. Moreover, it is important to know how attitude is changing during the time period. The contribution of the paper is a new method based on sentiment text analysis for detection and prediction negative and positive patterns for Facebook comments which combines (i) real-time sentiment text analysis for pattern discovery and (ii) batch data processing for creating opinion forecasting algorithm. To perform forecast we propose two-steps algorithm where: (i) patterns are clustered using unsupervised clustering techniques and (ii) trend prediction is performed based on finding the nearest pattern from the certain cluster. Case studies show the efficiency and accuracy (Avg. MAE = 0.008) of the proposed method and its practical applicability. Also, we discovered three types of users attitude patterns and described them.
Hello everyone. The publishers have given me permission to upload chapter four and the contents pages. Unfortunately, I am unable to share any other chapters for copyright reasons. There is however a large amount of material on my YouTube channel marksaundersonresearchmethods.
Mark
Reducing the impact of seasonal influenza epidemics and other pandemics such as the H1N1 is of paramount importance for public health authorities. Studies have shown that effective interventions can be taken to contain the epidemics if early detection can be made. Traditional approach employed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) includes collecting influenza-like illness (ILI) activity data from “sentinel” medical practices. Typically there is a 1-2 week delay between the time a patient is diagnosed and the moment that data point becomes available in aggregate ILI reports. In this paper we present the Social Network Enabled Flu Trends (SNEFT) framework, which monitors messages posted on Twitter with a mention of flu indicators to track and predict the emergence and spread of an influenza epidemic in a population. Based on the data collected during 2009 and 2010, we find that the volume of flu related tweets is highly correlated with the number of ILI cases reported by CDC. We further devise auto-regression models to predict the ILI activity level in a population. The models predict data collected and published by CDC, as the percentage of visits to “sentinel” physicians attributable to ILI in successively weeks. We test models with previous CDC data, with and without measures of Twitter data, showing that Twitter data can substantially improve the models prediction accuracy. Therefore, Twitter data provides real-time assessment of ILI activity.
Text Mining has become an important research area. Text Mining is the discovery by computer of new, previously unknown information, by automatically extracting information from different written resources. In this paper, a Survey of Text Mining techniques and applications have been s presented.
Microblogs are rich sources of information because they provide platforms for users to share their thoughts, news, information, activities, and so on. Twitter is one of the most popular microblogs. Twitter users often use hashtags to mark specific topics and to link them with related tweets. In this study, we investigate the relationship between the music listening behaviors of Twitter users and a popular music ranking service by comparing information extracted from tweets with music-related hashtags and the Billboard chart. We collect users' music listening behavior from Twitter using music-related hashtags (e.g., #nowplaying). We then build a predictive model to forecast the Billboard rankings and hit music. The results show that the numbers of daily tweets about a specific song and artist can be effectively used to predict Billboard rankings and hits. This research suggests that users' music listening behavior on Twitter is highly correlated with general music trends and could play an important role in understanding consumers' music consumption patterns. In addition, we believe that Twitter users' music listening behavior can be applied in the field of Music Information Retrieval (MIR).
Behavioral economics tells us that emotions can profoundly affect individual
behavior and decision-making. Does this also apply to societies at large, i.e.,
can societies experience mood states that affect their collective decision
making? By extension is the public mood correlated or even predictive of
economic indicators? Here we investigate whether measurements of collective
mood states derived from large-scale Twitter feeds are correlated to the value
of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) over time. We analyze the text
content of daily Twitter feeds by two mood tracking tools, namely OpinionFinder
that measures positive vs. negative mood and Google-Profile of Mood States
(GPOMS) that measures mood in terms of 6 dimensions (Calm, Alert, Sure, Vital,
Kind, and Happy). We cross-validate the resulting mood time series by comparing
their ability to detect the public's response to the presidential election and
Thanksgiving day in 2008. A Granger causality analysis and a Self-Organizing
Fuzzy Neural Network are then used to investigate the hypothesis that public
mood states, as measured by the OpinionFinder and GPOMS mood time series, are
predictive of changes in DJIA closing values. Our results indicate that the
accuracy of DJIA predictions can be significantly improved by the inclusion of
specific public mood dimensions but not others. We find an accuracy of 87.6% in
predicting the daily up and down changes in the closing values of the DJIA and
a reduction of the Mean Average Percentage Error by more than 6%.
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