For a PERT network, a new method is developed for estimating the criticality index of activity i (ACIi) as a function of the expected duration of activity i (i) and for the sensitivity analysis of the expected project completion time (T) with respect to i. The proposed method evaluates the frequency of activity i being on the critical path, and thereby its ACIi using Monte Carlo simulation or a
... [Show full abstract] Taguchi orthogonal array experiment at several values of i, fits a logistic regression model for estimating ACIi as a function of i, and then, using the estimated ACIi function, evaluates the amount of change in T when i is changed by a given amount. Unlike the previous works, the proposed method models ACIi as a nonlinear (ie, logistic) function of i, which can be used to estimate the amount of change in T for a variety of changes in i. Computational results indicate that the performance of the proposed method is comparable to that of direct Monte Carlo simulation.