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Abstract

The occurrence of wildfire threats has increased in the last few decades creating serious challenges for thousands of communities around the world. Understanding the physical and social dynamics imposed by wildfires is fundamental to assessing and reducing the ensuing risk to different communities. Although, several studies investigating household wildfire risk perception and decision-making are available in the literature, modelling solutions to predict household behaviour in wildfire scenarios are still in their early stages. Hence the lack of a behavioural model suitable for embedding within a simulation tool. In this paper, we propose a mathematical framework aimed at simulating how householders perceive the risk associated to wildfires and how they take protective actions in response to such threats. A conceptual Wildfire Decision Model, based on nine assumptions derived from existing literature on human behaviour in wildfires, is introduced. A mathematical framework is then proposed to implement such a model within a simulation tool. The proposed modelling solution can help identify the information required to generate new dynamic and behavioural travel demand models for wildfire evacuation.
A Modelling Framework for Householder Decision-Making for Wildre Emergencies

Abstract

    ! "  
 " #             $
  %       "" 
& # "#
'# #
 # 
(  ""  ""           
"""
%")*+# " ,
    #     %      
"" "   "" 
" -       #  

Keywords./ #/& // 
1. Introduc#on
 " 
0     ) !# ( 1)!(2
#3456
3786) "
         396 :    - 
"";
!" < $
" #""
 "  =#""
 ">  $# 396%
"> #
39?6 ' "#" 
#0 "# 

@   0       
"" 3;6##
    #   #  1 
 3A:4B62   "   ""     
#"344:476%#
$"""##=3;6
## 
" >    "   &
   3486
   > #""
     349:4C6' ""  
396 "  
 "-"""
 3485B6% #""# 396
=3;6 396 , "" -
"    ""    =   3;6 ,  
# "'
"  " - "  
  & "#% 
  ,"  &   "
" ""
%  #" 
"- #
 &#   +   
#& $
$& """$ 
"#12 %  " "
     "    
"" ""
    ""   "          
"       "
"(""")*+#
 " ""# #
  ""        
  &="  
"#  ,   "  &
   %  "    D "  "
      #    ""    # 
$ ##
 ""  
"
 # "# 354:5?6
E""   
 -  , &
#    " "  F G 3A456  
3475;6  "  3C:445A5C6 '  &   > 
# "&  
2. Background
+ # 
$#       # " "
#$& 
@ " #" 
<H%*+1H%*+2#H
37B6   I    "  "
  #  # J 3746 "" F
# #"I
#12 
H1(H2""
 #" "375:7?6D "
#," # .
"1 37;:8B62" # & "
   " &  " 3846  " 1
37862" #"""
"   "" 
=E,& "
1K"#    2  " "
,"  F  "
 K" " 37C6 =  J   "  &
#   "  0   - # " 
 " "" " 
 37;7A6% "& 
J   # "     "
 #-I"
# " 
"  #  &  "  "#  " 
""    " 1   #  "< 
23757785:886
396 1J2
""& "$
  = +& ) 3896 38?6 )  38;6
"   I& " 
#,12#
"    # - 1 # "   ,
#"> "2     I  &
"*&  "#) 1
     38?6   =  38A6 '  38C6  L
)39B62# "
" =, "HFH%*+  37B6
#         ""    3946 % 
" ""  #=  3;6" H%*+  "
F& "$"
"", 1#= 3962  
""H%*+ # 
    H%*+     ""   "    
" 
F#1"&2
$""& "= 3;6
     &     H%*+   $ 1 "&
 1" D  "2  #    
" 2( $F#
#  # "    $
#""&(&H1(H2%,
" #142 "" 1
 " "##2/152
 # " 1"##
2@D "- "
" 395976H3956    "
"+ 3976 "   # 
"       #  ""   
"   "       "     & 
"
,   "
""   
   #          "" 
1(H2
'&  " # #
"# 396"" #""
      &        
-.M)"NOM)
"#O
3. Modelling Assump#ons
)*+   & 
"  "            
 " "H%*+""#H
37B6"I   # "  &
  "" "# *
+#3986,"#3876 
& ##-#3996#
# 3796%  """ 
 387986        "     
 "")*+ <#
     

 
 " "     # 
 ""1
K" "  "      "  
2 " 
 - 
 "    "  
1          2 + 
        #  " " 
 : # " 38?6 %       
 !--
"     #       >
 3746  ""          " #
#        #
#""" % "
    1 "2    
34;6
" #     
$
""" ,
""""1,"
,"  0   ""    2  "   
"37B8;9?6(#"
 "        #    
-. M(    (   " D NO  M* (   
"NO34""8;6*"-& 
   "    "
#.         
"  " " 34
""9B4B6
% &!'
 ()*
! &)*
 +)*
 #)
 " #  # 356   
#3996 
, 0 "  #  "  #
#  "   #   < # $ 
# %    " "   "  
##("" "
#
#1()2 ###"
  1&
)2@1#"2#"
   " 1"& 2    
 # "
1+)2(K"
"#"#1#)2
+) #/
"K#"& 
:, ""=, "
 &  
    "M  O#   
3C455A6 "#$
" /+)
,!
- 35;6P
 "" # $"   
D
. /      !   

 "#.&
&3C455A6'
"1(H2 "#
"""K"% 
 #""
   D  # #  D "  
##:
""""3C6 
"      # - 
""  " " "  
#  "396
## #
=  D """
"    (H %  (H  Q   #"  3C6 ( 
"   ""   
 # "-"  
 #35A6
0 1
 2
   3 3    1 
4 
, "#& 
",#
" 1"2 D
 34""8?6+,
 #"
,"$ &  ,  " 
#3;6( ""&"
 " #
39A9C6
5 6!7
1
%H%*+""#H,
      #0 "&
" 34 "" 8A6 ,    #  " D  
 " #&  #   #
H#,""=
%$ 3?B?46    "     &  
#%$J%$%$
""FDJ
%$""
8 919 

  " D "
% &  #  #
  # 34
""8C6 # "
      ,     "   
,  " 3?56'
  "   " 
"1:2  " # 1;2 (      
  "     " #   - 
-4
Y=α+
i
βifi
(
Xi
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-4
 "  #  " 
$ &    3?7?86' 
 "       "  "   # 
 ","#"
< =19

% " 7   # &   
#"##
  $ # #  ,   <      
  <  &       
"$#& F& "
"","
3C:445A5C6
> 7!$
  "# " #  
3?9??6 E      "#   , # 
 1 2 " 
 "," 3?;6=H,?@A
13!
-37B6 """
# 396
 " #   #   "  = 4) 
,"  "   "=4#    
     " #      "   
   #  1     "2  
"$#,1 "
   2  & F   1   " 
2,#"D "
I"#H" #
$ #    " ( "
  I     &
  3?;6
& F#"""@
 "  ,    1
RI
RV

RP
= 4#2&
#/ ,*"
   $"    1  2  
#0$##
,# #D =4#
    # $   "" 1  
 ," " 2# 
"=4#
"""   =  " "
#  #  &#  &# ""    ""    
""  &"D""  "
"" 
 1 ""
2
12
1#2
=4:J" .12#1#2,"
4. Model Specica#on
  "" " ""
   $    
Ri(t)
        
#    -    #  1% " 5&7
L  ( PH 2 %% " 9; -
   #
Ri(t)
    ,  1 "   
    2    1  " ""   
","& #.
Ri
(
t
)
=f
(
FE(t), F I
)
-5
      , 1
2
1
FI(t)=
{
F1
I, , F i
I, , Fm
I
}
21 """
 ","G2 
     E     ,    
J "-5#D.
Ri
(
t
)
=
i=1
n
βi
EwiFi
E+
i=1
m
βi
IFi
I
-7

βi
E

βi
I
"  ",
   "
βi
E
 # $ #  #      %
    #  
#1% " 72
wi
  "    ,"
1""D"2 " ,
Fi
E
1% "?2 "
βi
E

βi
I
 
""
wi
"  "  -   " 
<
    "      . ,
18421852#1
872   1 882     
1792
.B1C
=#, "F
 ""            
 "  #   3;6
*"$ #
""   1"# 
   2 3;6E
# ""#4 "#
Fi
E
#
"" #3;6(
 # " ##
,
#4:,$""
1MRO" "/MSM "2
Factor Wildre Hurricane Reference
P#  +34B5C6
 #K=# +34B5C6
=  +34B5C6
=K'",  + + 34B5C?A?C6
@# +34B6
K +R 3;B;46
%    "  "    ""/   " 
'# "# :
       %    # ,"  
"#<1 2
 " "" %#
 "," %
#"" 3A6 .  
  # D4 =#4 &&     K  
#
    $  "   F ,"  ,  1
"" D " 2   "  D
")D35A6, 
  F ,"         %
E  (   #              "
F ,"=  ," , #  
##  34?;56
 $  ""  
wi
" - 7
" #<,D "
M4O%"##""#J#
 "E#
b(w¿¿ip)¿
# 
wi
" .
b(w¿¿ip)=
{
1; pi
0;(1pi)¿
-8

pi
"## ,1
Fi
E
2"D
"## "# 
."&C
H  "F
""
Fi
I
#5""#
""""3;6
#5:($""
1MRO" "/MSM "2
Factor Wildre Hurricane Reference
% 3;46
(  +3;4;76
 +3;B;46
1 2 + + 3;B;86
  3;B;76
H""  +3;B6
H," +±3;B;4;96
4J -"   # #
 ,"  "  " -        "
  #L(
 " -" ##""
## 3;?6
"" ""
 "  %  $F" 
( 3;46 1 2
   ""     ##    
   35A;B;76     $  " 
"" " "  %  
,"","#
  "" 3;B;4;96 ' ,"      
 """3;46
+ ""   " ""' 
  I =E 3;B6 #   
 '3;46
","  " ""#  "
""  #-7
.%=D
E """ 1% "C2
#  "
" -## #
  1
ε
2-5"## "
#  $  
 " F  # "
#$ # 9
 9    - 5  # D    
  
f
  
ε
-9
Ri
(
tβ
)
=fi
(
t
)
+ε(0, σ )=fi
(
FE(t), F I
)
+ε(0, σ )
-9

β
" $ "
βi
E

βi
I

-7
ε
  # -<
 1
σ
2 *$ #  #   
ε
   # 
#"# " 
8
%"# ## 
β
" 
     )      "    
"## # #C
βθ

θ
    "  < 
"## # (          $ F
 ," " " 
 #  "     
#3;;:;C6 349634A4CAB6"
Q
..E=)
%  % "7  $# 1(
)3 &)3+ )3  # )2 "  
"""%
1
RI
RV

RP
2""&
" =4#! "#
##7
E#
Ri
 -%"#
 F ""' "#
"####-?
#7:"##
Behavioural state Risk Value
L 
<Ri
(
tβ
)
RI
(
RI<Ri
(
tβ
)
<RV
P
RV<Ri
(
tβ
)
<RP
H
RP<Ri
(
tβ
)
<+
PN ,i =P
(
<Ri
(
tβ
)
R I
)
=C
(
RIfi
(
t
)
)
PI ,i=P
(
RI<Ri
(
tβ
)
<RV
)
=C
(
RVfi
(
t
)
)
C
(
RIfi
(
t
)
)
PV , i=P
(
RV<Ri
(
tβ
)
<RP
)
=C
(
RPfi
(
t
)
)
C
(
RVfi
(
t
)
)
PP ,i=P
(
RP<Ri
(
tβ
)
<+
)
=1C
(
RPfi
(
t
)
)
-?

PN ,i
PI ,i
PV , i

PP ,i
 "##   #    
   "  "    ,"  
"    F     #     
ε
 
-9=5"""-?(=5"#
#
PN ,i

PI ,i

PV , i

PP ,i
" "
fi
(
t
)

 "##  " " #     #  "
  
ε

PN ,i
# 
PP ,i

12
1#2
=5:P"-9 ""12
1#2
- ?        #       
"#
ε
  =  
 < # F      
-?"@ 3A46
.0G))
@     "  1  882    
"1% "82+"##
" 3C:445A5C6%#
"#.(H%"#
"=7#"
=7:H
## #
1% "82& #  
"#"=7# =  " 
"& "#  ##
""( "
 
%"#  #   
$##  ,   <    
<  &  1% " A2 %      
 "#," 1
#  "2 J % " C#
  =  "    #  # 
" " "1
""""2% # 
&  3A56!  "  "##    
1
Pi
L
21
Pi
D
2(H1
Pi
SIP
2#-;
Pi
L=eμV i
L
eµ V i
L+eμ Ii
S
Pi
S=eμ Ii
S
eμ V i
L+eμ Ii
S
Pi
F=Pi
SP
(
fight
|
stay
)
=Pi
SeµSVi
F
eµSVi
F+eµSVi
SIP
Pi
SIP =Pi
SP
(
SIP
|
stay
)
=Pi
SeµSVi
SIP
eµSVi
F+eµSVi
SIP
Ii
S=1
µS
ln (eµSVi
F+eµSVi
SIP)
-;

µS
"#  TF

Pi
S
"##14&
Pi
L
2
Vi
L

Vi
F

Vi
SIP
  
          (H  % 
% "C-#,1
FE(t), F I
2%
   # 8  1(L2, 1U2 
#"" 3;6( #
 " ##,
#8   "    "     
(H'  #
 "   # =    3;96   
 #     #K
      "          
#  "   +<  3;76  
 " +
     "   "      3;76 =
  "    K  1  "2    
"3;76
 "  =, " ","
    "   3;?A76'
   # # E 3;B6 %  ##   3A86" 
" "+34B6
 "( " "
,"#$# ,"
#8&(,$"& 1MRO"
 "/MSM "2
ID Factor Nature Leave Defend SIP Reference
4 "" (L R R 3455;;7;9A96
5 1 2 (L R 35A95;7;?A7A?:AA6
7 1 2 (L R
8H
1 2 (L R 3;76
9  "" (L R R 3956
? % (L R 3AA6
; (  (L R 3956
A ," U R R 3455CAA6
CH" 1 
""2 (L R 35C;7A8AA6
4B E (L R 3AA6
44 H," (L V 3;B;9;?A76
45 &> (L R
3A96397647 "&> (L R
48 &< (L R
49 '&"" 
# (L R 3A86
4? ' U R 3A9AA6
4; =  (L R 3456
4A & (L R 3A96
4C '" U R 3;7A96
5B ' U R 3;7A8A96
54 J D  (L R 3455CAA6
55 H"D  (L R 3455CA7A9AA6
57 )   
 (L R 3956
58
'   
"     

U R 3A86
59 &"# (L R 35C956
5?  U R 3;96
5; %  
  U R 3A?6
5A %   
#W U R 3A?AA6
5C %   
 W U R 3;7A?AA6
7B + 
 U R 3;76
74 H   
 U R 3A86
75  U R 3AA6
W
%"
 1""2"##-; 
 #  ""#      
" #""3C5A6
5. Model Calibra#on
( """ ##
 3A6#3A6"## "
F##8%
# " "#
 +  ""   142    
 "      "  .    1   
"    "##    2/  152    
 #  "   1  "##
 2 % ""  " 
"  F         " G
"
0)
#3A6&"
89;%,"#(
     #   89/     
 "    ""     (H 
# "# 
 "    "        
"
   3A6 " "      
     #  $ # 42  X 5B48 #  H
+'H'52X5B49#$
   % '  #  
 " # H%* + 37B6( C8 - 
 .
& ("#12/
& ' "/
& H, #/
& &>&"#/
& H,"#"" 0/
& (#/
& """" "/
& H"D#<0 5/
& &<0 7/
& H"#  #/
&  ##/
& H"/
& ( " 
*-#""  " 37B6=
& "##
 >#"",  "
:
>" # "
""#
0"#
%89;"$##
""984Y "4A5 17CAY2
5;9 1?B5Y24A:?9+1?CY2"
"?A;Y"747Y"
44?Y  ##-+
ABY4B;4Y" 4BB 
#54Y#4BB 9BB #
0%)B
 """"# ""##
   ""    =7 % 
 "   "##  (H1 2 
# & 
  #"##
#89;"
    # 9   "     
##9-<%
" " #
5H"&<0 """""
 """"
7<0 ""#""""
#&-" ""-" 3A6
"##     - A   "#
"##1
Pi
L
21
Pi
S
2 " 
-;"##(H# 
Pi
L=eVi
L
eVi
L+1
Pi
S=1Pi
L=1
eVi
L+1
Vi
L=
j=1
n
βjFij
-A

Fij
   1 " #2     
βj
 
 " 
" #  #  # 
"  #8)      
# #9##$ #
 #  #9 1"ZB42     "" 
#?
 # "   
1HHI2"" #9?1HH20
+=-1GJE"28GJE" #9#
  "" 3AC6+GJE"
#? #9
 #D  #   $ 
=    "   #9? 
"  "# E "
 "    "  1" Z BB92     # 9 1 
" 2" "  #? 1
" 2 " #? #
 " 
8"   3ACC56
#9:= ""##1"
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$
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W(*#8
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+[&7;9C?7
%05[BBC
(*W H  *" P H& +
$
4 H"  412?12 B78CB; BBB? ;7BY
? %4 44A&58B
 &45A; BB?9 &5;CBY
C &""  B12812 &B5AB8; BBB7 &9CBY
47 >  412912 B;;548 B 45CBY
47 >  412912 &B?99CA BBB4 &4;5BY
59 &"#  412912 &B8;998 BB;8 &447BY
5?  4[/B[ B94;54 BBCA 4B?BY
"# " #89;
"12.
2 #3?6<# 
#8##"
#2 " "#1 
"" 2>"#/
 ""
2 > #" "

2  """## 
" 1>2#9/
 &"""
"
2  "##" 
"##/
2 "    ""   "  
 #    #/
2     #   # #  12 #   " <  
"
"12:12 " ""#9?"A7Y
#" " #?
# " 
%" " Q 
#9142, "152
#$#  "<J"&0M"
#O3CB6"#  "#
"##     3C46 + $  ""  # 9   
 "9
( ""  $    "## 
"#"#
 " 3AC6=## $"##
#"# B4#"
"",  "###"#4&
  #=  "# #  "## 
1##2  ;?Y   4&
  1 #2F# "   
84Y"##% $#9"##
 ## ""##
" $ <,"
."""(#
"## 4Y
="## "  #9
 ?     "##        
+ "  
#"1#82#"" 
9 $#9 "3C96
  ,"    F  (      3AA6 
""" " %
        "  "
 ," MO" %
  1 # 82           
""  # 9 ""   #    
## ",F ," 
"K# ,"%
-"
% " "  ""     = 8-A
"##K"
""   ? (      # 9   "#  #  
"##+""
"###8BY ""=
# <   "      
$#9
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BB
B4
B5
B7
B8
B9
B?
B;
BA
BC
4B  

H"
H##
=8:( """"##
6. Discussion and Conclusion
 ""      "  "
""
#"")*+# "
  ,     #    ""   
  #    1  "#  &   
"2#""1
 (H  2 %   ""     #   
"\   "          &
     # 0 $,
##%#
? # "
     "     1 (H 2
"#"
 )*+ # "#    "  
     ,   "   &
     *$    #    
  & =<<LL#
3?;6( """, H%*+
   # "##   # %
"" ##   3C56)
 ,    "" &  
# %"#
,/    "    =  "" 
    &    "      
 "& ,3C7C86
( """ ##
3A6"> "
 "   #  #  
F,1
# 92 % # "  #" 
"    " # # 
 "#"/
($ #  &
""  
 ,"#"A7Y 
#89;#3A6
  ""##
(H          %
   "<  "@
89; % #
#$# "!
$ &"    $ #    
$ K" %  !%   
-$
      " "  "# " 
"(<" " 
-  # #"'
 " #      -
 "& """)
# $ F"
 &    #"#  
+-,""" "#
$I
References
346 E=.<L99415B4;27BB:7BB
.4B4B7AK849A?&B4;&B?B5B&?
356 J%%%+L&HHHE<%" 
," !!#H4A515B4C299:??
.4B4B4?KX%L*!EH%L5B4A4BBB8
376 ]X#" =
+59C15B4B2?A9:?C;.4B4B4?KX=@J@5BBCBCBB5
386 XE'E& H*EX'+%L
+<H++%+<+J)%" 
L%  HL%!%44815B4;289A5:
89CB.4B4B;7K"4?4;8?8448
396 )H(%E&.@"+H
= +)!#&=H=5B4;
3?6 %XH+JXE H'%#  >
  "1% 27C15B442C;:457.4B4BB;K4444?&B44&
C75B&?
3;6 =%HJ"+' E")&!#
(==15B4C2
3A6 X)DX' &"%#(X*
15B4;2.4B4B4?KX(X*5B4;4BB4?
3C6 X)DE'X@","E
#.( ""(X*5715B4;244C:
45;.4B4B4?KX(X*5B4;B9BB5
34B6 X+D+@ '&  .
N(X)=5415B452C49.4B4B;4K)=44B?4
3446 %XH"!
.#."E%+A85BB9
3456 X+*HEH$#&%
F#
(X*4415B49279:8?.4B4B4?KX(X*5B4844BBA
3476 X+D)F." # .E
JJ%=%J5B45J= 5B45.""9?:?C
3486 =J^(  .##
(X815B4824C:7;.4B58C9K%=&P8&L4&4C&7;
3496 X!%XHH"FH(* +
H%15B4;2.4B4444K45C74
34?6 '=J) %&E* * +'
"X"E4C?815BB?2544:54A.4B7484K4C?8&57
34;6 '=J) -* * +'"
X"E4AA515BB824C:5?.4B7484K4AA5&B7
34A6 '+&%!% &" <&# 
 #"HJ 5;15B4724BA:44?
.4B4B4?KXJ5B44B?BB9
34C6 %+P!H+&% " "# 
 #< "HJ 7515B47254:
7B.4B4B4?KXJ5B47B7BBC
35B6 P*,J) E)+%G*"J"
X"E574515B45249C:4?7.4B7484K5745&4;
3546 %E<+% %##XJE 
   " +H?B15B4?2488:49C
.4B4B4?KX(+H%5B494BBB5
3556 XJXHX+ L#!#:)(
H%7815BB525544:555C.4B4B?AK78594
3576 '&&=+)( " <
" +H?;15B4?29C:;7.4B4B4?KX(+H%5B4?B;BB4
3586 *XJH*G)#J"=>
 +.%" "(%""=15B4A24:5?.4B4BB;K4B?C8&
B4A&B;;4&?
3596 %P =""HX'X<< 
 #&""4B5
15B4A24;A:4C7.4B4B4?KXJ(5B4;B;B49
35?6 E)+ H!#&)(.#&
%)X!#H*47715BB;2;7:A4.4B4B?4K1%J2B;77&
C8AA15BB;2477.41;72
35;6 (++LH**"J*+HF
(X)=5815B492497:
4?4.4B4B;4K)=45547
35A6 X)D'X' X+J 5BBC%ME
O#."""(X)=5515B472
A84.4B4B;4K)=45B4B
35C6 X+D+@ X)D'F&"
 ;=#5BBCP1%2=X?415B4724;9:4A8
.4B4B4?KX=(%=5B47BCBB7
37B6 +)HJ  +J 5BB8
3746 XJ=%*#%+H%).&&
HNL'<4B15BBC2494:4?5.4B4B?4K1%J2495;&?CAA15BBC24B.814942
3756 +P*+X+'+I #
=+8415B4;2845:87B.4B4BB5K 57C4
3776 ++'+X+*""' 
E+=15B4924:5?.4B4BB;K4B?C8&B49&B9B4&5
3786 *H' E=&L(L4?755BBA
3796 +PE' "+H&"
L(J45&C;55B47
37?6 X* "#_.M"O>N14CA82D".KK#K@*N
[#775CA51+;5B4A2
37;6 *J=' E&(.*J12=' EX
)`4CAB
37A6 **J. #
=XC14CA9259;:5?9
37C6 XE,*JX* H"#"".
H%"EH"=4C;?.""7C:9B
38B6 *J(*XJHE !."
 .4CC5.""479:49B
3846 H,% ""XH4714CC7247;:48;
.4B4B4?KB5;5&8C881B92AB48?&U
3856 %=<F@*E%#,
 # A515B4?2.4B4B4?K05B494BB49
3876 *L%*+#"
I# +H??15B4?255?:585
.4B4B4?K0 "5B4?B7BB?
3886 XEE"= .X**L%12=H'#=H
7L=H%5BB5."7749&7784
3896 H+&E)" .%
" ""HJ 5;15B47259:89
.4B4B4?KXJ5B4544BB9
38?6 XH+&H=&=("%""
+L'<4815B472494:4?5.4B4B?4K1%J2L'495;&
?CC?BBBB4B9
38;6 )@JEJH"H,&( "
J L'<%7715B4724B8C:4B?9.4B4444K0497C&
?C585B45B4C85,
38A6 +%H= %""  
%H715B4B27:48.4B4B4?KXH@L5B4BB;BB7
38C6 *E'XJ +&++!"L].%*H
X'  +815BB;2.4B55B5K498;&;799474;
39B6 'LE)@"  "  JX
J8515B492A4:AA.4B447CK0&5B48&B4;;
3946 ++E+5.% "#   "
H%HH8515BBA248B:498.4B4B4?KX%5BB;B?B48
3956 EHH**#XP!"
 +(X)=5715B482879:888
.4B4B;4K)=47B9;
3976 X+J*HEDH&%
F&. 
(X)=5715B48244;?.4B4B;4K)=4754C
3986 H%*+5B47.D".KK,K4B?B5AKL((;C48
3996 **.@" *& H%
5BB4)J*!JE5B44
39?6 H' E*==8C15B4724B4:45B
.4B4BB;K4B?C8&B44&B589&?
39;6 *#!"X7?14CCC2949:957
.4B4B4?KB7?5&774C1CC2BBB54&U
39A6 +*H%*H""#
." "=815B4924
.4B44A?K8BB7A&B48&BBB9&<
39C6 *L% & ""&=
X;A15B492.4B4B4?K05B49B;BB4
3?B6 X#$.XX)+12H"H"
4C;;.""9?:?B
3?46 'J"$E(
5515BB72749:77A.4B4BABKB488C5CB74BBB49C59A;
3?56 )' %&;H5B44
3?76 **++"&#")J
45" #445BB4=X8815BBC28A;:8C?.4B4B4?K05BBA4BBB4
3?86 += +H%+++"&#
)J45" #445BB4.%=
X8?15B442848:858.4B4B4?K05B44B;BB4
3?96 H%*H%+%E!
+=15B472.4B4BB;K4B?C8&B47&B795&;
3??6 *E  
##47415B482??:4;8.4B4B4?K05B48B;BB;
3?;6 +*&+=# !
HE+5B4?
3?A6 *JDH#"".
 #JHE'<515BBB2487:499.4B4B4?K48?8&
5A?;1B42BBB48&?
3?C6 XJ)E+P)X+) '
.$"##J
HE'<515BBB2477:485.4B4B4?K48?8&5A?;1B42BBB47&8
3;B6 JJEJ>%,J"4;15BB82
8B4:85B.4B4BABK4B?49ABB94577475A;?A
3;46 &'+JH'&J)#'*+
"'(L'<4715B4525A7:5C?.4B4B?4K1%J2L'495;&
?CC?BBBBB;8
3;56 '=J)  . "#"
  .A?%+"
E5BB;
3;76 H+< L X#HE( 
:#.%""#"# =H4B15BBA2849:
857.4B4B4?KX=@H@5BBAB5BB5
3;86 X+E E.%J)) %+
'L'<715BB524B;:44;.4B4B?4K1%J2495;&
?CAA15BB527.714B;2
3;96  %E#&&L%J#C44
J " ) L'<4715B452?9:;7
.4B4B?4K1%J2L'495;&?CC?BBBBB9C
3;?6 X)DX' J #."&E%X
 +7915B4B2
3;;6 %=<F@% , ",#
"H%HHC515B4?2.4B4B4?K05B4?B?B4A
3;A6 %=<*F@*E%'E,J
 # !A515B4?2854:874
.4B4B4?K05B494BB49
3;C6 *E*F@%(#% # ,
 ?515B48284A:85?.4B4B4?K05B474BBB8
3AB6 '!'H+&E+!'&
'*+X"47;15B442784:78A
.4B4B?4K1%J24C87&987?BBBB557
3A46 )'*%'+@J.%H J #!H5B4B
3A56 *  J #"5BB7
3A76 HXJ+J] #.
)X%""=5415BB?27C:8A
3A86 %##X)D.H"# ,"
5BB7P#'<;15BB;25A7:5CB.4B4B4?K0<5BB;BABB4
3A96 (++LH**"J*+%&,"&#""
(X)=5915B4?27;A:7AC.4B4B;4K)=49B94
3A?6 X)DJ'"5BBCE#
P%9815B4?25B7:549.4B4444K4;89&9A;4454?5
3A;6 JL' #"
%X5?15B4B2775:785.4B4B4?KXX!!*5B4BB?BB4
3AA6 X+D+@ (J E.%(
J#5BBCPE=5B44
3AC6 *%'X+)'%""J%.%H J #!H
5BB9
3CB6 X*H.H0"#L95B15B492?45:?45
.4B4B7AK95B?45
3C46 )#'HJ'D%J FL'"
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... Evacuation is the most commonly used strategy to mitigate the impact of wildfires on human lives (McCaffrey et al., 2014;Yang et al., 2018). However, planning effective evacuations requires a clear understanding of human behaviors during these processes (Anyidoho et al., 2022;Forrister et al., 2024;Lovreglio et al., 2019). One key element to take into account when planning and making decisions about wildfire evacuations is the households' decision to evacuate or to stay (Folk et al., 2019). ...
... For instance, discrete choice modeling was used by Toledo et al. (2018) to investigate household decisions in a 2016 fire in Haifa, Israel. Many other studies have employed similar modeling techniques to predict householder decisions in Australia (Lovreglio et al., 2019;Strahan et al., 2019) and the U.S. McCaffrey et al., 2018;Wong et al., 2023). Alternative macroscopic approaches use multilinear regression models or geographically weighted regression to predict evacuation percentages among householders in different geographical groups based on GPS data (Sun et al., 2024a;Wu et al., 2022). ...
... This differs from the other two perceptions, which pertain to the level of response actions taken by householders and their perceptions of media influence (Lindell and Perry, 2003;Strahan et al., 2018). The relationship between threat perceptions and decision-making has been explored in numerous hazard studies (Lovreglio et al., 2019;Strahan and Gilbert, 2021). While it is widely acknowledged that threat perceptions and risk perceptions can impact decision-making, the relationship is complex and paradoxical due to the influence of other factors, such as previous hazard experiences and socioeconomic status (Wachinger et al., 2013). ...
... The decision-making process to evacuate or stay during a wildfire has been widely investigated in the literature using different qualitative and quantitative approaches, such as individual interviews, focus group interviews, questionnaires/surveys and GPS data inference (Kuligowski, 2021;Wu et al., 2022). These methodologies have been applied to study numerous wildfires around the globe, uncovering a range of factors that influence the decision-making process for homeowners' protective actions Lovreglio et al., 2019Lovreglio et al., , 2020Vaiciulyte et al., 2022). These contributing factors include both internal factors (e.g., demographics, perspectives, memories of previous experiences and attitudes) and external factors (e.g., disaster alerts and warnings as well as cues from the physical and social environment) (Lovreglio et al., 2019). ...
... These methodologies have been applied to study numerous wildfires around the globe, uncovering a range of factors that influence the decision-making process for homeowners' protective actions Lovreglio et al., 2019Lovreglio et al., , 2020Vaiciulyte et al., 2022). These contributing factors include both internal factors (e.g., demographics, perspectives, memories of previous experiences and attitudes) and external factors (e.g., disaster alerts and warnings as well as cues from the physical and social environment) (Lovreglio et al., 2019). Recent studies have synthesized these factors into conceptual models, particularly based on the Protective Action Decision Model framework (Lindell and Perry, 2012), to elucidate their impact on different phases of the decision-making process (Folk et al., 2019;Kuligowski et al., 2022;Lovreglio et al., 2019Lovreglio et al., , 2020. ...
... These contributing factors include both internal factors (e.g., demographics, perspectives, memories of previous experiences and attitudes) and external factors (e.g., disaster alerts and warnings as well as cues from the physical and social environment) (Lovreglio et al., 2019). Recent studies have synthesized these factors into conceptual models, particularly based on the Protective Action Decision Model framework (Lindell and Perry, 2012), to elucidate their impact on different phases of the decision-making process (Folk et al., 2019;Kuligowski et al., 2022;Lovreglio et al., 2019Lovreglio et al., , 2020. ...
... Cluster #06, human response to building fires, represents a broad stream of research mainly focusing on how humans respond to building fires. This stream combines several reviews (Bryan, 1999; on how people behave in a building fire as well as work focusing on how to integrate known behaviours and theories in evacuation simulations (Lovreglio et al., 2019;Kuligowski et al., 2017;Gwynne et al., 2016). This stream started in 1985, and it has reached different peaks and drops in the last 40 years, as shown in Figure 3, and it shows a substantial drop in the last years. ...
... -rapid systematic review -wildfire threat -wildfire evacuation -early literature -bushfire part S 287 (Cohn, Carroll et al. 2006) 50 (Paveglio, Carroll et al. 2008) 5 20 (Lin, Lo et al. 2008) 4.98 2009(Anderson, Nash et al. 1982 0.02 (Lu, George et al. 2005 (Cova, Dennison et al. 2005) 17 (Cova, Drews et al. 2009) 17 YR(citing) 2007-2021 (Dennison, Cova et al. 2006) 16 (Cova, Dennison et al. 2016) 15 (Dijkstra 1959) 16 (Ronchi 2021) 15 (Hurley, Gottuk et al. 2016) 15 (Li, Cova et al. 2017) 15 (Dash and Gladwin 2007) 14 (Lovreglio, Kuligowski et al. 2019) 15 (Beloglazov, Almashor et al. 2016) 14 ...
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Understanding human behaviour in fires (HBiF), whether in building or wildland fire contexts, is crucial for saving lives and managing evacuations. However, existing research lacks a comprehensive analysis of HBiF knowledge from both perspectives. To address this issue, we examined nearly 1,900 HBiF-related research papers and their references, identifying around 6,600 frequently cited references as the HBiF knowledge foundation. We focused on highly prominent items using metrics like citation frequency, burst, and centrality. By analysing co-citation patterns among these references, we unveiled current trends and waning areas of HBiF research. This study identifies knowledge gaps and potential future directions for the field, enabling both mapping of the research concerning our fundamental understanding of behavioural decision-making in fires as well as developing more effective life-saving strategies.
... Moreover, once households decide on their evacuation logistics, they can then either depart immediately or continue evacuation preparations by "milling" (Wood et al., 2018) (e.g., seeking warning confirmation and additional information and relaying warnings to others) and engaging in logistical preparation (e.g., gather all persons who would evacuate with you; pack items you would need while gone; shut off utilities, secure the home and leave (Lindell et al., 2005)) before evacuating from their homes (Lindell and Perry, 2012;Lovreglio et al., 2020Lovreglio et al., , 2019. The time required to complete all of these steps -an evacuation time estimate (ETE) -is a function of four components (Urbanik et al., 1980;Lindell et al., 2019b): t T = f (t d , t w , t p , t e ), where t T is a household's total clearance time, t d is the authorities' warning issuance delay time, t w is the household's warning receipt time, t p is the household's evacuation preparation time, and t e is the household's evacuation travel timesee Figure 1, which is adapted from Lindell and Perry (1992) Figure 4.1. ...
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Despite the increase in frequency and intensity of wildfires around the world, little research has examined households' expectations of evacuation logistics and evacuation time estimate (ETE) components during such rapid-onset disasters. To address this gap, this study analyzes data from 152 household responses affected by the devastating 2018 wildfire in Mati, Greece where the second-deadliest wildfire of the 21st century took place. The questionnaire measured residents’ expectations of how they would respond to a future wildfire. This includes the number of vehicles they would take, their evacuation destination and route choices, and their expected evacuation preparation and travel times. Explanatory variables include risk perceptions, wildfire preparedness, wildfire experience, and demographic characteristics. The univariate results reveal some similarities to, but also some differences from, expected evacuation logistics and ETE components in other natural hazards. Moreover, correlation and regression analyses show that expected evacuation logistics and ETE components are primarily related to wildfire preparedness actions. Comparison of this study's results with other rapid onset events such as tsunamis and hazardous material incidents, as well as longer onset events such as hurricanes, sheds light on household responses to wildfires. Emergency managers can use the similarities in results across studies to better prepare for wildfire evacuations.
... • Householder decision-making in wildfires (Lovreglio et al. 2019 ...
Technical Report
A significant portion of Aotearoa New Zealand’s population is vulnerable to tsunami. To improve evacuation modelling and planning, this study explores the complexities of decision-making for tsunami evacuation. As an exploratory study, four expert elicitation workshops were held to brainstorm key factors influencing evacuation behaviour. Insights from the workshop reveal the complexity of decision-making, with multiple factors overlapping and potentially influencing each other. The factors identified can be broadly grouped into four categories. These include: (1) Individual factors: personal experiences, knowledge, health, mobility and other factors can shape evacuation choices. (2) Social context and influence: social norms, family dynamics and other influences can significantly impact evacuation decisions. (3) Information factors: Clarity, timeliness and comprehensiveness of information is crucial for effective evacuation. (4) External and location-based factors such as time of day, weather, familiarity with surroundings and damage to infrastructure can also influence evacuation strategies. These findings highlight the potential to integrate these factors to improve agent-based modelling to reflect actual decision-making processes. In turn, the models can improve evacuation planning and public education. The multi-faceted factors can be progressively integrated into tsunami evacuation modelling as research progresses. Models that integrate the decision-making factors identified in this study can be a valuable tool for enhancing tsunami planning for coastal communities in Aotearoa New Zealand.
... Most of the studies predicting wildfire evacuation behavior focus on understanding the factors that influence the binary evacuation decision of stay or go as well as wait and see decisions (Folk et al., 2019;Lovreglio et al., 2019;McCaffrey et al., 2018). To date, existing literature puts less emphasis on the perceptions that influence evacuation decisions and subsequent evacuee travel behaviors, including choices of departure timing (Kuligowski, 2021). ...
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Climate change is increasing the threat of wildfires to populated areas, especially those within the wildland-urban interface (WUI). The 2021 Marshall fire forced the evacuation of over 30,000 people in Boulder, Jeffer-son and Adams Counties in Colorado, US. To improve our understanding of wildfire evacuation response, we surveyed individuals affected by the Marshall fire to analyze their evacuation decisions and resulting behavior. We used linear and logistic regression models to determine the factors influencing individuals' risk perceptions, their decisions to evacuate or stay, and the associated evacuation delay times. We found higher levels of risk perception at the time of the evacuation decision were associated with higher levels of pre-fire perceived risk, having mid-level household income, the receipt of fire cues and having a medical condition. Increased pre-event risk perception increased the likelihood of evacuating, along with gender (female-identified), being aged between 55 and 64 years, and having a higher household income. On the other hand, having a prior awareness of wildfires had a negative effect on evacuation likelihood. Additionally, having previous experience with fire damage, owning their home, having a larger household size and being alerted later in the fire event reduced the delay time; whereas engaging in preparation activities and having children in the home led to longer delay times. These research findings can be used by emergency managers to better prepare WUI communities for future wildfire events.
... The vulnerability of the population to wildfires can be reduced through individual and collective behaviors that improve selfprotection abilities, using proper shelters or refuges, or by developing and adopting evacuation plans, where the community can evacuate to a safe location within or outside the settlement (Cova et al., 2011;Lovreglio et al., 2019). The susceptibility of infrastructures to wildfires can be decreased by using fire-resistant building materials and clearing of nearby vegetation in the home ignition zone (e.g., Champ et al., 2013). ...
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Introduction In Portugal, the 2017 fire season was particularly extreme, leading to an unprecedented large number of fatalities, injured people, destruction of houses and infrastructures. These dramatic outcomes have contributed to raise awareness regarding the importance of ensuring the safety of people and assets from high intensity uncontrollable wildfires. It is crucial to identify the settlements at higher risk and the most suitable mitigation actions that can maximize the protection of people and assets. Methods We developed a simple methodology that combines exposure and vulnerability to estimate wildfire risk at the local level. Exposure was estimated using a fire spread simulation approach that was used to determine the probability of (i) a wildfire generating firebrands that could affect a settlement and (ii) a high intensity wildfire occurring adjacent to a settlement. Exposure was estimated using two fuel scenarios created to represent the current year of 2023 (short-term scenario) and 2030, assuming that no fuel management nor large fires occur in the meantime (medium-term worst-case scenario). Vulnerability was determined by the (i) Index of Total Dependence (IDT), and (ii) evacuation difficulty. Exposure and vulnerability metrics were normalized in percentiles, distributed into quadrants and combined to provide six levels of wildfire risk. For each vulnerability\exposure combination, we proposed a set of priority mitigation actions. The methodology was applied to three areas in Portugal where the risk estimates were analyzed and compared with the implementation rate of two risk mitigation programs already in place. Results Results showed that 8.7% of the settlements had “very high” wildfire risk and about 19.5% had “high” wildfire risk, potentially affecting 8,403 and 34,762 inhabitants, respectively. The spatial distribution of settlements at higher risk was very heterogeneous across the study areas and the total fraction ranged between 14% in Coimbra to 36% in Barlavento Algarvio. The overall implementation of mitigation programs in the study areas is very low, with only around 1% of the settlements in “very high” risk having any of the mitigation programs implemented. Conversely, our results also suggest that the implementation rate in settlements classified in lower risk classes is disproportionately high. Discussion The application of this risk analysis methodology can be used to assess the implementation status of mitigation actions, and contribute to tailor the actions that maximize the protection of people and assets according to the specific conditions found in each targeted area.
... Therefore, understanding the threat perception of householders in the urban-wildland interface is paramount to determining the trigger behind decision-making. For instance, a study shows that risk perception influences evacuation decision-making and factors like prior preparation actions (Lovreglio et al., 2019). Further, householders' risk perception could help determine effective risk management policies (Brenkert-Smith et al., 2013). ...
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Purpose Of all the deaths associated with disasters, bushfires account for 40% of these fatalities. The resulting fatalities are consequent upon householders’ decision-making, leading to late or non-evacuation from at-risk communities. However, while decision-making is a function of risk perception, this paper aims to investigate householders’ perceptions of bushfire risks following the catastrophic Black Summer bushfires of 2019/2020. Design/methodology/approach An inductive research approach was adopted. Thirty semi-structured interviews were conducted to elicit qualitative data from southeastern NSW, Australia householders. The data were collected via face-to-face and online Zoom. Each interview was recorded, transcribed using Otter.AI and thematically analyzed with NVivo 12 Pro (Braun and Clarke, 2006, 2019). In addition, inter-rater reliability was done by engaging an independent researcher to code the de-identified data independently. The codes were cross-checked for reliability and adjusted where necessary. Findings It was found that bushfire risk perceptions were high among the householders in bushfire at-risk communities following the 2019/2020 Black Summer bushfires. High levels of perceptions were recorded among the participants regarding the likelihood of bushfire occurrence, concern for bushfires, severity of bushfires and vulnerability to bushfire threats. Research limitations/implications The study’s results do not reflect all householders in the southeastern part of NSW. It was limited to 30 householders who indicated their intentions to participate and are living in the study area. Therefore, future studies should be undertaken with more participants from broader geographical areas, including emergency responders like firefighters, recovery officers and non-government organizations in charge of recovery operations. This study will add to the prioritization of risk perceptions. Practical implications All else being equal, elevated bushfire risk perceptions among participants can potentially decrease the fatalities linked with bushfires and their subsequent ripple effects. This holds particularly true when residents opt for early self-evacuation from at-risk communities. Social implications The paper contributes to developing a better understanding of the bushfire risk perceptions underlying the evacuation decision-making of the residents in bushfire at-risk communities in south-eastern NSW of Australia. Originality/value The paper contributes to the existing knowledge on bushfire risks by providing insights into residents’ perceptions after the catastrophic 2019/2020 Black Summer bushfires. As a qualitative study, it describes bushfire risk perceptions on four themes: likelihood, concern, severity and vulnerability, which is uncommon in many bushfire studies.
Technical Report
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The present work describes a novel framework for modelling wildfire urban evacuations. The framework is based on multi-physics simulations that can quantify the evacuation performance. The work argues that an integrated approached requires considering and integrating all three important components of WUI evacuation, namely: fire spread, pedestrian movement, and traffic movement. The report includes a systematic review of each model component, and the key features needed for the integration into a comprehensive toolkit.
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Wildfires across western North America have increased in number and size over the past three decades, and this trend will continue in response to further warming. As a consequence, the wildland–urban interface is projected to experience substantially higher risk of climate-driven fires in the coming decades. Although many plants, animals, and ecosystem services benefit from fire, it is unknown how ecosystems will respond to increased burning and warming. Policy and management have focused primarily on specified resilience approaches aimed at resistance to wildfire and restoration of areas burned by wildfire through fire suppression and fuels management. These strategies are inadequate to address a new era of western wildfires. In contrast, policies that promote adaptive resilience to wildfire, by which people and ecosystems adjust and reorganize in response to changing fire regimes to reduce future vulnerability, are needed. Key aspects of an adaptive resilience approach are (i) recognizing that fuels reduction cannot alter regional wildfire trends; (ii) targeting fuels reduction to increase adaptation by some ecosystems and residential communities to more frequent fire; (iii) actively managing more wild and prescribed fires with a range of severities; and (iv) incentivizing and planning residential development to withstand inevitable wildfire. These strategies represent a shift in policy and management from restoring ecosystems based on historical baselines to adapting to changing fire regimes and from unsustainable defense of the wildland– urban interface to developing fire-adapted communities. We propose an approach that accepts wildfire as an inevitable catalyst of change and that promotes adaptive responses by ecosystems and residential communities to more warming and wildfire. wildfire | resilience | forests | wildland–urban interface | policy