Content uploaded by Ruggiero Lovreglio
Author content
All content in this area was uploaded by Ruggiero Lovreglio on Aug 10, 2019
Content may be subject to copyright.
A Modelling Framework for Householder Decision-Making for Wildre Emergencies
Abstract
! "
" # $
% ""
& # "#
'# #
#
( "" ""
"""
%")*+# " ,
# %
"" " ""
" - #
Keywords./ #/& //
1. Introduc#on
"
0 ) !# ( 1)!(2
#3456
3786) "
396 : -
"";
!" < $
" #""
" =#""
"> $# 396%
"> #
39?6 ' "#"
#0 "#
@ 0
"" 3;6##
# # 1
3A:4B62 " ""
#"344:476%#
$"""##=3;6
##
" > " &
3486
> #""
349:4C6' ""
396 "
"-"""
3485B6% #""# 396
=3;6 396 , "" -
" "" = 3;6 ,
# "'
" " - "
& "#%
," & "
" ""
% #"
"- #
&# +
#& $
$& """$
"#12 % " "
"
"" ""
"" "
" "
"(""")*+#
" ""# #
""
&="
"# , " &
% " D " "
# "" #
$ ##
""
"
# "# 354:5?6
E""
- , &
# " " F G 3A456
3475;6 " 3C:445A5C6 ' & >
# "&
2. Background
+ #
$# # " "
#$&
@ " #"
<H%*+1H%*+2#H
37B6 I " "
# # J 3746 "" F
# #"I
#12
H1(H2""
#" "375:7?6D "
#," # .
"1 37;:8B62" # & "
" & " 3846 " 1
37862" #"""
" ""
=E,& "
1K"# 2 " "
," F "
K" " 37C6 = J " &
# " 0 - # "
" "" "
37;7A6% "&
J # " "
#-I"
# "
" # & " "# "
"" " 1 # "<
23757785:886
396 1J2
""& "$
= +& ) 3896 38?6 ) 38;6
" I& "
#,12#
" # - 1 # " ,
#"> "2 I &
"*& "#) 1
38?6 = 38A6 ' 38C6 L
)39B62# "
" =, "HFH%*+ 37B6
# "" 3946 %
" "" #= 3;6" H%*+ "
F& "$"
"", 1#= 3962
""H%*+ #
H%*+ "" "
"
F#1"&2
$""& "= 3;6
& H%*+ $ 1 "&
1" D "2 #
" 2( $F#
# # " $
#""&(&H1(H2%,
" #142 "" 1
" "##2/152
# " 1"##
2@D "- "
" 395976H3956 "
"+ 3976 " #
" # ""
" " " &
"
, "
""
# ""
1(H2
'& " # #
"# 396"" #""
&
-.M)"NOM)
"#O
3. Modelling Assump#ons
)*+ &
" "
" "H%*+""#H
37B6"I # " &
"" "# *
+#3986,"#3876
& ##-#3996#
# 3796% """
387986 "
"")*+ <#
" " #
""1
K" " " "
2 "
-
" "
1 2 +
# " "
: # " 38?6 %
!--
" # >
3746 "" " #
# #
#""" % "
1 "2
34;6
" #
$
""" ,
""""1,"
," 0 "" 2 "
"37B8;9?6(#"
" #
-. M( ( " D NO M* (
"NO34""8;6*"-&
" "
#.
" " " 34
""9B4B6
% &!'
()*
! &)*
+)*
#)
" # # 356
#3996
, 0 " # " #
# " # < # $
# % " " "
##("" "
#
#1()2 ###"
1&
)2@1#"2#"
" 1"& 2
# "
1+)2(K"
"#"#1#)2
+) #/
"K#"&
:, ""=, "
&
"M O#
3C455A6 "#$
" /+)
,!
- 35;6P
"" # $"
D
. / !
"#.&
&3C455A6'
"1(H2 "#
"""K"%
#""
D # # D "
##:
""""3C6
" # -
"" " " "
# "396
## #
= D """
" (H % (H Q #" 3C6 (
" ""
# "-"
#35A6
0 1
2
3 3 1
4
, "#&
",#
" 1"2 D
34""8?6+,
#"
,"$ & , "
#3;6( ""&"
" #
39A9C6
5 6!7
1
%H%*+""#H,
#0 "&
" 34 "" 8A6 , # " D
" #& # #
H#,""=
%$ 3?B?46 " &
#%$J%$%$
""FDJ
%$""
8 919
" D "
% & # #
# 34
""8C6 # "
, "
, " 3?56'
" "
"1:2 " # 1;2 (
" " # -
-4
Y=α+∑
i
βifi
(
Xi
)
-4
" # "
$ & 3?7?86'
" " " #
","#"
< =19
% " 7 # &
#"##
$ # # , <
< &
"$#& F& "
"","
3C:445A5C6
> 7!$
"# " #
3?9??6 E "# , #
1 2 "
"," 3?;6=H,?@A
13!
-37B6 """
# 396
" # # " = 4)
," " "=4#
" # "
# 1 "2
"$#,1 "
2 & F 1 "
2,#"D "
I"#H" #
$ # " ( "
I &
3?;6
& F#"""@
" , 1
RI
RV
RP
= 4#2&
#/ ,*"
$" 1 2
#0$##
,# #D =4#
# $ "" 1
," " 2#
"=4#
""" = " "
# # &# &# "" ""
"" &"D"" "
""
1 ""
2
12
1#2
=4:J" .12#1#2,"
4. Model Specica#on
"" " ""
$
Ri(t)
# - # 1% " 5&7
L ( PH 2 %% " 9; -
#
Ri(t)
, 1 "
2 1 " ""
","& #.
Ri
(
t
)
=f
(
FE(t), F I
)
-5
, 1
FE(t)=
{
F1
E(t), … , F i
E(t), … , Fn
E(t)
}
2
1
FI(t)=
{
F1
I, … , F i
I, … , Fm
I
}
21 """
","G2
E ,
J "-5#D.
Ri
(
t
)
=∑
i=1
n
βi
EwiFi
E+∑
i=1
m
βi
IFi
I
-7
βi
E
βi
I
" ",
"
βi
E
# $ # # %
#
#1% " 72
wi
" ,"
1""D"2 " ,
Fi
E
1% "?2 "
βi
E
βi
I
""
wi
" " - "
<
" . ,
18421852#1
872 1 882
1792
.B1C
=#, "F
""
" # 3;6
*"$ #
"" 1"#
2 3;6E
# ""#4 "#
Fi
E
#
"" #3;6(
# " ##
,
#4:,$""
1MRO" "/MSM "2
Factor Wildre Hurricane Reference
P# +34B5C6
#K=# +34B5C6
= +34B5C6
=K'", + + 34B5C?A?C6
@# +34B6
K +R 3;B;46
% " " ""/ "
'# "# :
% # ,"
"#<1 2
" "" %#
"," %
#"" 3A6 .
# D4 =#4 && K
#
$ " F ," , 1
"" D " 2 " D
")D35A6,
F ," %
E ( # "
F ,"= ," , #
## 34?;56
$ ""
wi
" - 7
" #<,D "
M4O%"##""#J#
"E#
b(w¿¿i∨p)¿
#
wi
" .
b(w¿¿i∨p)=
{
1; pi
0;(1−pi)¿
-8
pi
"## ,1
Fi
E
2"D
"## "#
."&C
H "F
""
Fi
I
#5""#
""""3;6
#5:($""
1MRO" "/MSM "2
Factor Wildre Hurricane Reference
% −3;46
( +−3;4;76
+−3;B;46
1 2 + + 3;B;86
−3;B;76
H"" +3;B6
H," +±3;B;4;96
4J -" # #
," " " - "
#L(
" -" ##""
## −3;?6
"" ""
" % $F"
( 3;46 1 2
"" ##
35A;B;76 $ "
"" " " %
,"","#
"" 3;B;4;96 ' ,"
"""3;46
+ "" " ""'
I =E 3;B6 #
'3;46
"," " ""# "
"" #-7
.%=D
E """ 1% "C2
# "
" -## #
1
ε
2-5"## "
# $
" F # "
#$ # 9
9 - 5 # D
f
ε
-9
Ri
(
t∨β
)
=fi
(
t
)
+ε(0, σ )=fi
(
FE(t), F I
)
+ε(0, σ )
-9
β
" $ "
βi
E
βi
I
-7
ε
# -<
1
σ
2 *$ # #
ε
#
#"# "
8
%"# ##
β
"
) "
"## # #C
β∨θ
θ
" <
"## # ( $ F
," " "
# "
#3;;:;C6 349634A4CAB6"
Q
..E=)
% % "7 $# 1(
)3 &)3+ )3 # )2 "
"""%
1
RI
RV
RP
2""&
" =4#! "#
##7
E#
Ri
-%"#
F ""' "#
"####-?
#7:"##
Behavioural state Risk Value
L
−∞<Ri
(
t∨β
)
≤ RI
(
RI<Ri
(
t∨β
)
<RV
P
RV<Ri
(
t∨β
)
<RP
H
RP<Ri
(
t∨β
)
<+ ∞
PN ,i =P
(
−∞<Ri
(
t∨β
)
≤ R I
)
=C
(
RI−fi
(
t
)
)
PI ,i=P
(
RI<Ri
(
t∨β
)
<RV
)
=C
(
RV−fi
(
t
)
)
−C
(
RI−fi
(
t
)
)
PV , i=P
(
RV<Ri
(
t∨β
)
<RP
)
=C
(
RP−fi
(
t
)
)
−C
(
RV−fi
(
t
)
)
PP ,i=P
(
RP<Ri
(
t∨β
)
<+∞
)
=1−C
(
RP−fi
(
t
)
)
-?
PN ,i
PI ,i
PV , i
PP ,i
"## #
" " ,"
" F #
ε
-9=5"""-?(=5"#
#
PN ,i
PI ,i
PV , i
PP ,i
" "
fi
(
t
)
"## " " # # "
ε
PN ,i
#
PP ,i
12
1#2
=5:P"-9 ""12
1#2
- ? #
"#
ε
=
< # F
-?"@ 3A46
.0G))
@ " 1 882
"1% "82+"##
" 3C:445A5C6%#
"#.(H%"#
"=7#"
=7:H
## #
1% "82& #
"#"=7# = "
"& "# ##
""( "
%"# #
$## , <
< & 1% " A2 %
"#," 1
# "2 J % " C#
= " # #
" " "1
""""2% #
& 3A56! " "##
1
Pi
L
21
Pi
D
2(H1
Pi
SIP
2#-;
Pi
L=eμV i
L
eµ V i
L+eμ Ii
S
Pi
S=eμ Ii
S
eμ V i
L+eμ Ii
S
Pi
F=Pi
SP
(
fight
|
stay
)
=Pi
SeµSVi
F
eµSVi
F+eµSVi
SIP
Pi
SIP =Pi
SP
(
SIP
|
stay
)
=Pi
SeµSVi
SIP
eµSVi
F+eµSVi
SIP
Ii
S=1
µS
ln (eµSVi
F+eµSVi
SIP)
-;
µS
"# TF
Pi
S
"##14&
Pi
L
2
Vi
L
Vi
F
Vi
SIP
(H %
% "C-#,1
FE(t), F I
2%
# 8 1(L2, 1U2
#"" 3;6( #
" ##,
#8 " "
(H' #
" # = 3;96
# #K
"
# " +< 3;76
" +
" " 3;76 =
" K 1 "2
"3;76
" =, " ","
" 3;?A76'
# # E 3;B6 % ## 3A86"
" "+34B6
"( " "
,"#$# ,"
#8&(,$"& 1MRO"
"/MSM "2
ID Factor Nature Leave Defend SIP Reference
4 "" (L R R 3455;;7;9A96
5 1 2 (L R 35A95;7;?A7A?:AA6
7 1 2 (L R
8H
1 2 (L R 3;76
9 "" (L R R 3956
? % (L R 3AA6
; ( (L R 3956
A ," U R R 3455CAA6
CH" 1
""2 (L R 35C;7A8AA6
4B E (L R 3AA6
44 H," (L V 3;B;9;?A76
45 &> (L R
3A96397647 "&> (L R
48 &< (L R
49 '&""
# (L R 3A86
4? ' U R 3A9AA6
4; = (L R 3456
4A & (L R 3A96
4C '" U R 3;7A96
5B ' U R 3;7A8A96
54 J D (L R 3455CAA6
55 H"D (L R 3455CA7A9AA6
57 )
(L R 3956
58
'
"
U R 3A86
59 &"# (L R 35C956
5? U R 3;96
5; %
U R 3A?6
5A %
#W U R 3A?AA6
5C %
W U R 3;7A?AA6
7B +
U R 3;76
74 H
U R 3A86
75 U R 3AA6
W
%"
1""2"##-;
# ""#
" #""3C5A6
5. Model Calibra#on
( """ ##
3A6#3A6"## "
F##8%
# " "#
+ "" 142
" " . 1
" "## 2/ 152
# " 1 "##
2 % "" "
" F " G
"
0)
#3A6&"
89;%,"#(
# 89/
" "" (H
# "#
" "
"
3A6 " "
# $ # 42 X 5B48 # H
+'H'52X5B49#$
% ' #
" # H%* + 37B6( C8 -
.
& ("#12/
& ' "/
& H, #/
& &>&"#/
& H,"#"" 0/
& (#/
& """" "/
& H"D#<0 5/
& &<0 7/
& H"# #/
& ##/
& H"/
& ( "
*-#"" " 37B6=
& "##
>#"", "
:
>" # "
""#
0"#
%89;"$##
""984Y "4A5 17CAY2
5;9 1?B5Y24A:?9+1?CY2"
"?A;Y"747Y"
44?Y ##-+
ABY4B;4Y" 4BB
#54Y#4BB 9BB #
0%)B
""""# ""##
"" =7 %
" "## (H1 2
# &
#"##
#89;"
# 9 "
##9-<%
" " #
5H"&<0 """""
""""
7<0 ""#""""
#&-" ""-" 3A6
"## - A "#
"##1
Pi
L
21
Pi
S
2 "
-;"##(H#
Pi
L=eVi
L
eVi
L+1
Pi
S=1−Pi
L=1
eVi
L+1
Vi
L=∑
j=1
n
βjFij
-A
Fij
1 " #2
βj
"
" # # #
" #8)
# #9##$ #
# #9 1"ZB42 ""
#?
# "
1HHI2"" #9?1HH20
+=-1GJE"28GJE" #9#
"" 3AC6+GJE"
#? #9
#D # $
= " #9?
" "# E "
" " 1" Z BB92 # 9 1
" 2" " #? 1
" 2 " #? #
"
8" 3ACC56
#9:= ""##1"
"##"##2
L ##[898
B[&854745
+[&7;959A
%05[BB?
(*W H *" P H& +
$
4 = 412?12 &B759 B475 &?CY
4 H" 412?12 B94? BBB9 4BCY
4 HK 412?12 BBCA B98? 5BY
5 4[ /B[ B7?4 B55C ;?Y
? %4 44A&58B
&4A8B BB77 &7ACY
? %5 459&78B
&B9BC B9AA &4B8Y
? %7 479&88B
&B794 B?95 &;7Y
? %8 489&98B
&B775 B9?7 &?CY
? %9 499&?8B
&B9AA B599 &457Y
? %? 4?9&;8B
&B4A7 B;57 &7CY
C &"" B12812 &B59B BB57 &95Y
C '"" B12C12 &BB57 B;;A &B9Y
4B E B12912 B4C9 B7C7 84Y
47 > 412912 B;59 BBB4 484BY
47 > 412912 &B;4; BBB4 &4?5BY
4? ' 4[/B[ &BB47 BC;; &B5Y
4C '" 4[/B[ &BB4C BC?8 &B?Y
5B ' 4[/B[ B8A; B559 4B5Y
59 &"# 412912 &B8A4 BBC7 &4B9Y
5? 4[/B[ B?CB BB7C 488Y
W(*#8
#?:H ""##1"
"##"##2
L ##[898
B[&854745
+[&7;9C?7
%05[BBC
(*W H *" P H& +
$
4 H" 412?12 B78CB; BBB? ;7BY
? %4 44A&58B
&45A; BB?9 &5;CBY
C &"" B12812 &B5AB8; BBB7 &9CBY
47 > 412912 B;;548 B 45CBY
47 > 412912 &B?99CA BBB4 &4;5BY
59 &"# 412912 &B8;998 BB;8 &447BY
5? 4[/B[ B94;54 BBCA 4B?BY
"# " #89;
"12.
2 #3?6<#
#8##"
#2 " "#1
"" 2>"#/
""
2 > #" "
2 """##
" 1>2#9/
&"""
"
2 "##"
"##/
2 " "" "
# #/
2 # # # 12 # " <
"
"12:12 " ""#9?"A7Y
#" " #?
# "
%" " Q
#9142, "152
#$# "<J"&0M"
#O3CB6"# "#
"## 3C46 + $ "" # 9
"9
( "" $ "##
"#"#
" 3AC6=## $"##
#"# B4#"
"", "###"#4&
#= "# # "##
1##2 ;?Y 4&
1 #2F# "
84Y"##% $#9"##
## ""##
" $ <,"
."""(#
"## 4Y
="## " #9
? "##
+ "
#"1#82#""
9 $#9 "3C96
," F ( 3AA6
""" " %
" "
," MO" %
1 # 82
"" # 9 "" #
## ",F ,"
"K# ,"%
-"
% " " "" = 8-A
"##K"
"" ? ( # 9 "# #
"##+""
"###8BY ""=
# < "
$#9
45789?
BB
B4
B5
B7
B8
B9
B?
B;
BA
BC
4B
H"
H##
=8:( """"##
6. Discussion and Conclusion
"" " "
""
#"")*+# "
, # ""
# 1 "# &
"2#""1
(H 2 % "" #
"\ " &
# 0 $,
##%#
? # "
" 1 (H 2
"#"
)*+ # "# "
, " &
*$ #
& =<<LL#
3?;6( """, H%*+
# "## # %
"" ## 3C56)
, "" &
# %"#
,/ " = ""
& "
"& ,3C7C86
( """ ##
3A6"> "
" # #
F,1
# 92 % # " #"
" " # #
"#"/
($ # &
""
,"#"A7Y
#89;#3A6
""##
(H %
"< "@
89; % #
#$# "!
$ &" $ #
$ K" % !%
-$
" " "# "
"(<" "
- # #"'
" # -
"& """)
# $ F"
& #"#
+-,""" "#
$I
References
346 E=.<L99415B4;27BB:7BB
.4B4B7AK849A?&B4;&B?B5B&?
356 J%%%+L&HHHE<%"
," !!#H4A515B4C299:??
.4B4B4?KX%L*!EH%L5B4A4BBB8
376 ]X#" =
+59C15B4B2?A9:?C;.4B4B4?KX=@J@5BBCBCBB5
386 XE'E& H*EX'+%L
+<H++%+<+J)%"
L% HL%!%44815B4;289A5:
89CB.4B4B;7K"4?4;8?8448
396 )H(%E&.@"+H
= +)!#&=H=5B4;
3?6 %XH+JXE H'%# >
"1% 27C15B442C;:457.4B4BB;K4444?&B44&
C75B&?
3;6 =%HJ"+' E")&!#
(==15B4C2
3A6 X)DX' &"%#(X*
15B4;2.4B4B4?KX(X*5B4;4BB4?
3C6 X)DE'X@","E
#.( ""(X*5715B4;244C:
45;.4B4B4?KX(X*5B4;B9BB5
34B6 X+D+@ '& .
N(X)=5415B452C49.4B4B;4K)=44B?4
3446 %XH"!
.#."E%+A85BB9
3456 X+*HEH$#&%
F#
(X*4415B49279:8?.4B4B4?KX(X*5B4844BBA
3476 X+D)F." # .E
JJ%=%J5B45J= 5B45.""9?:?C
3486 =J^( .##
(X815B4824C:7;.4B58C9K%=&P8&L4&4C&7;
3496 X!%XHH"FH(* +
H%15B4;2.4B4444K45C74
34?6 '=J) %&E* * +'
"X"E4C?815BB?2544:54A.4B7484K4C?8&57
34;6 '=J) -* * +'"
X"E4AA515BB824C:5?.4B7484K4AA5&B7
34A6 '+&%!% &" <&#
#"HJ 5;15B4724BA:44?
.4B4B4?KXJ5B44B?BB9
34C6 %+P!H+&% " "#
#< "HJ 7515B47254:
7B.4B4B4?KXJ5B47B7BBC
35B6 P*,J) E)+%G*"J"
X"E574515B45249C:4?7.4B7484K5745&4;
3546 %E<+% %##XJE
" +H?B15B4?2488:49C
.4B4B4?KX(+H%5B494BBB5
3556 XJXHX+ L#!#:)(
H%7815BB525544:555C.4B4B?AK78594
3576 '&&=+)( " <
" +H?;15B4?29C:;7.4B4B4?KX(+H%5B4?B;BB4
3586 *XJH*G)#J"=>
+.%" "(%""=15B4A24:5?.4B4BB;K4B?C8&
B4A&B;;4&?
3596 %P =""HX'X<<
#&""4B5
15B4A24;A:4C7.4B4B4?KXJ(5B4;B;B49
35?6 E)+ H!#&)(.#&
%)X!#H*47715BB;2;7:A4.4B4B?4K1%J2B;77&
C8AA15BB;2477.41;72
35;6 (++LH**"J*+HF
(X)=5815B492497:
4?4.4B4B;4K)=45547
35A6 X)D'X' X+J 5BBC%ME
O#."""(X)=5515B472
A84.4B4B;4K)=45B4B
35C6 X+D+@ X)D'F&"
;=#5BBCP1%2=X?415B4724;9:4A8
.4B4B4?KX=(%=5B47BCBB7
37B6 +)HJ +J 5BB8
3746 XJ=%*#%+H%).&&
HNL'<4B15BBC2494:4?5.4B4B?4K1%J2495;&?CAA15BBC24B.814942
3756 +P*+X+'+I #
=+8415B4;2845:87B.4B4BB5K 57C4
3776 ++'+X+*""'
E+=15B4924:5?.4B4BB;K4B?C8&B49&B9B4&5
3786 *H' E=&L(L4?755BBA
3796 +PE' "+H&"
L(J45&C;55B47
37?6 X* "#_.M"O>N14CA82D".KK#K@*N
[#775CA51+;5B4A2
37;6 *J=' E&(.*J12=' EX
)`4CAB
37A6 **J. #
=XC14CA9259;:5?9
37C6 XE,*JX* H"#"".
H%"EH"=4C;?.""7C:9B
38B6 *J(*XJHE !."
.4CC5.""479:49B
3846 H,% ""XH4714CC7247;:48;
.4B4B4?KB5;5&8C881B92AB48?&U
3856 %=<F@*E%#,
# A515B4?2.4B4B4?K05B494BB49
3876 *L%*+#"
I# +H??15B4?255?:585
.4B4B4?K0 "5B4?B7BB?
3886 XEE"= .X**L%12=H'#=H
7L=H%5BB5."7749&7784
3896 H+&E)" .%
" ""HJ 5;15B47259:89
.4B4B4?KXJ5B4544BB9
38?6 XH+&H=&=("%""
+L'<4815B472494:4?5.4B4B?4K1%J2L'495;&
?CC?BBBB4B9
38;6 )@JEJH"H,&( "
J L'<%7715B4724B8C:4B?9.4B4444K0497C&
?C585B45B4C85,
38A6 +%H= %""
%H715B4B27:48.4B4B4?KXH@L5B4BB;BB7
38C6 *E'XJ +&++!"L].%*H
X' +815BB;2.4B55B5K498;&;799474;
39B6 'LE)@" " JX
J8515B492A4:AA.4B447CK0&5B48&B4;;
3946 ++E+5.% "# "
H%HH8515BBA248B:498.4B4B4?KX%5BB;B?B48
3956 EHH**#XP!"
+(X)=5715B482879:888
.4B4B;4K)=47B9;
3976 X+J*HEDH&%
F&.
(X)=5715B48244;?.4B4B;4K)=4754C
3986 H%*+5B47.D".KK,K4B?B5AKL((;C48
3996 **.@" *& H%
5BB4)J*!JE5B44
39?6 H' E*==8C15B4724B4:45B
.4B4BB;K4B?C8&B44&B589&?
39;6 *#!"X7?14CCC2949:957
.4B4B4?KB7?5&774C1CC2BBB54&U
39A6 +*H%*H""#
." "=815B4924
.4B44A?K8BB7A&B48&BBB9&<
39C6 *L% & ""&=
X;A15B492.4B4B4?K05B49B;BB4
3?B6 X#$.XX)+12H"H"
4C;;.""9?:?B
3?46 'J"$E(
5515BB72749:77A.4B4BABKB488C5CB74BBB49C59A;
3?56 )' %&;H5B44
3?76 **++"&#")J
45" #445BB4=X8815BBC28A;:8C?.4B4B4?K05BBA4BBB4
3?86 += +H%+++"&#
)J45" #445BB4.%=
X8?15B442848:858.4B4B4?K05B44B;BB4
3?96 H%*H%+%E!
+=15B472.4B4BB;K4B?C8&B47&B795&;
3??6 *E
##47415B482??:4;8.4B4B4?K05B48B;BB;
3?;6 +*&+=# !
HE+5B4?
3?A6 *JDH#"".
#JHE'<515BBB2487:499.4B4B4?K48?8&
5A?;1B42BBB48&?
3?C6 XJ)E+P)X+) '
.$"##J
HE'<515BBB2477:485.4B4B4?K48?8&5A?;1B42BBB47&8
3;B6 JJEJ>%,J"4;15BB82
8B4:85B.4B4BABK4B?49ABB94577475A;?A
3;46 &'+JH'&J)#'*+
"'(L'<4715B4525A7:5C?.4B4B?4K1%J2L'495;&
?CC?BBBBB;8
3;56 '=J) . "#"
.A?%+"
E5BB;
3;76 H+< L X#HE(
:#.%""#"# =H4B15BBA2849:
857.4B4B4?KX=@H@5BBAB5BB5
3;86 X+E E.%J)) %+
'L'<715BB524B;:44;.4B4B?4K1%J2495;&
?CAA15BB527.714B;2
3;96 %E#&&L%J#C44
J " ) L'<4715B452?9:;7
.4B4B?4K1%J2L'495;&?CC?BBBBB9C
3;?6 X)DX' J #."&E%X
+7915B4B2
3;;6 %=<F@% , ",#
"H%HHC515B4?2.4B4B4?K05B4?B?B4A
3;A6 %=<*F@*E%'E,J
# !A515B4?2854:874
.4B4B4?K05B494BB49
3;C6 *E*F@%(#% # ,
?515B48284A:85?.4B4B4?K05B474BBB8
3AB6 '!'H+&E+!'&
'*+X"47;15B442784:78A
.4B4B?4K1%J24C87&987?BBBB557
3A46 )'*%'+@J.%H J #!H5B4B
3A56 * J #"5BB7
3A76 HXJ+J] #.
)X%""=5415BB?27C:8A
3A86 %##X)D.H"# ,"
5BB7P#'<;15BB;25A7:5CB.4B4B4?K0<5BB;BABB4
3A96 (++LH**"J*+%&,"&#""
(X)=5915B4?27;A:7AC.4B4B;4K)=49B94
3A?6 X)DJ'"5BBCE#
P%9815B4?25B7:549.4B4444K4;89&9A;4454?5
3A;6 JL' #"
%X5?15B4B2775:785.4B4B4?KXX!!*5B4BB?BB4
3AA6 X+D+@ (J E.%(
J#5BBCPE=5B44
3AC6 *%'X+)'%""J%.%H J #!H
5BB9
3CB6 X*H.H0"#L95B15B492?45:?45
.4B4B7AK95B?45
3C46 )#'HJ'D%J FL'"
%' J 7815BBA24AA:5BC.4B4444K048?A&
5C9A5BBABB74A,
3C56 *J+ J #!HJ #5BBC
.4B4B4;KJE@C;AB944AB95;4
3C76 ab'bJ" ."
&E4?515B4A27:47.4B4B4?KXL@]5B4AB?B7?
3C86 ]H%"*++('( (
+J#8A15B4A2CA5:CC5.4B44BCK+J5B4?5?5;B9B
3C96 'a
'D".KK)+J K+#K=,K75?B4&&& &&
&N=[94C;A89`#[15B442
