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Abstract

The occurrence of wildfire threats has increased in the last few decades creating serious challenges for thousands of communities around the world. Understanding the physical and social dynamics imposed by wildfires is fundamental to assessing and reducing the ensuing risk to different communities. Although, several studies investigating household wildfire risk perception and decision-making are available in the literature, modelling solutions to predict household behaviour in wildfire scenarios are still in their early stages. Hence the lack of a behavioural model suitable for embedding within a simulation tool. In this paper, we propose a mathematical framework aimed at simulating how householders perceive the risk associated to wildfires and how they take protective actions in response to such threats. A conceptual Wildfire Decision Model, based on nine assumptions derived from existing literature on human behaviour in wildfires, is introduced. A mathematical framework is then proposed to implement such a model within a simulation tool. The proposed modelling solution can help identify the information required to generate new dynamic and behavioural travel demand models for wildfire evacuation.
A Modelling Framework for Householder Decision-Making for
Wildre Emergencies

Abstract

                
  !    ! "  
                  #
  $            
!!    %    "        
  ! "       
   &     "  "  "

'!!!!  
  !                  
!   !    $ ! ( )
*  "     !      +     
"$!!
 !       !! 
!,
"
Keywords-.".%..
1. Introduction
  !
 /
 ( "'0( '1 " 2345
                      
2675(!
               285 9      
,!!:
  !    ;  
#!
      "  !!            
!<"!!
  !    =          #  "
 285   $              !    =
      "         28>5   &  
! "  !  "/
!"

?/
      !      !     2:5
" ""
    "      0     2@93A51  
!!!"
! 2339365$"
#!!! "
"<2:5
        "        "    
          !    =    
!    %   
2375
              =      "
!!23893B5&
!!285
 !!
     ,   !!  ! 
  2374A5 $    "  !!
"    285   <   2:5     285 +  ! 
!      ,    !      
!!< 2:5+
"!&
!!,!
          %  !     
"$+!
%!!
!!
$       " !
      !                    
,            "      %"
      *          "
%#
    #  %            !!
!#!"01$
        !    !          
      !            
   !! !!  

        !!      !          
!
    !      !       '    !!  
    !  (  )  *  "      !
!!""
      !!                  
              %  
  <      !    !    
"      +      !      %
        $      !        
!!"
!!"#
""!!
                
!
"!"
24394>5
C    !            !    
            ,      
+%"
! !  D  2@345   2364:5  
!2B9334@4B5&%=
"!%
2. Background
*"
 #"      
"!!"
#%
?!"!
 ;    E $ )
*0E$)*1"E26A5F
!   !   "
 " G   2635  ! ! D "
              "  !    F  
  " 0  1   
E0'E1!!

  " ! ! 
26496>5   !    "    +!    "      
-!0 26:97A51
!" %!
!%!2735!0
26751  !          "  !          
    !!    !        !  !

<    C+        
%!0H!"
1!!+!
D              !  
H! ! 26B5 <G ! 
%"!/,
"!!!!
      !   26:6@5$ 
!%G
"!!
",F!
"
!!" % !
  !"    !    !!        !  0
"!;126466749775
 2850
G 1 ! !  %
!#<*%
(278527>5(27:5!
        F      %  !  
  "  +    0    1      
"!",0
"  !      +  "    !    =
!1          F    %  !
)%!"(0
27>5<27@5&27B5
I  ( 28A51       "   
  !   !  < +!
EDE$)* 26A5 "
!! 2835 $ !
  !  !   "  <      2:5 !   E$)*  
! D % !    # 
!
  !! + 0    " < 
2851      !!             E$)*      "
                  E$)*  
!!!!
D"0!%
1          #      !!  %
  ! <   2:5      
%E$)*#0!%
0!   !1 " 
!    1   '              #
D"""!
          #  "  !!      
%'%E0'E1 $  +!
"031!!
0          !      !""      
1.041"!
0!""
1?!,!
!284865E2845
 !  !   *   2865 ! 
 "! 
" !! ! !
!%!
+ !
!!
"
   !!   
0'E1&
%        !        "    
"    !  "   285   !!  
    " !!     
%,-
J(   !KL J(!
"L
3. Modelling Assumptions
         ( )  *        
  %  !    !          
     ! !   
E$  ) * !!"   E 26A5   
!  F      " !   
% !!  !"
)*"2875+!
"     2765   %  " 
", " 2885 "
"2685$!!!
276875!
    !  !    (  )  *
;"
 

      

  !     !              
"                    !
!0H!!
!     !     
1!
     ,    
      !   
 !    0 
 1*
  "!!
9 "! 27>5 $     
        
,,!"
    =  2635   !!
            !  "  "  
"
"!!!$
  !      0  !1
23:5
! "
#
 !      !!   +
!!!
  !    0    +!    +!    /    
!!1!
!26A7:8>5'"!
!  "
,-J''!KL
J)'!KL23!!7:5)!
,%!
      !   
"-
!                  !
!23!!8A3A5
$ % &
 '()
 %()
 *()
 "(
 !  "    "  245  
            "   2885   
+/
! "    !  " " 
!      "      ;  "    #
  "  $        !  !    
!      "        "  '  
!!  !    
""
0'(1"""
!
0%(1?0"
!1"!!0!%
1
"                !      
0*  (1  'H    !          
!"
!"0"(1
*  (                 "  .
   !H"
!%9+ 
!!<+!
    %              
!JL
"                 2B344@5  
!"#!
            .        
* (+        
           
    , -!./  M          
!!"#!

0 1  

            !      "
- % %   2B344@5 & 
!0'E1
   ! "  
!!!H!$
"!
    !                  "  
"!
  " "  9 !!
!  ! 2B5      
!"
      ,   !!        !    
!    !          "      
!285
      "    "          "  
      <          
!!!!'E$
  'E            "!    2B5  '    
    !          !!  
    "   !
  ,!      "  
24@5
2       3
                    
        4      
5  5        3  

 + ! " %   
!+
"!
0!1
   23 !!7>5 * +  
"
    !  +!  #      %  
+      !    "     2:5  '
!!%!
            !        
"28@8B5
6         7 
83
$E$)*!!"
E   +                
    "/    !%  !  23  !!  7@5  +
      "   !        !  "  
%""
E"+!!<
$#2>A>35!
    %      "      $#  
G$#   $#       
 !!   DG
$#!!
. 939

        !        
!$%
""
" 23!!7B5
"!
   +   
!     +    
  ! 2>45  &            
!              !    
!0:1!"0;1'
            !        !
",,3
Y=α+
i
βifi
(
Xi
)
,3
    !    "        !  
 #%  
 2>6>75&!
!!"!+!
"!
< =      3    9          

$!6  " %
"!
      "  "      #  "  "  
+;
;  %      
!#"%D
%!!!+!
2B9334@4B5
>    8
 #
  !    "      !   "    
   2>8>>5  C        
!"      +  "          
01!!+
! 2>:5<E+-?/
  3  
5   , 26A5    
!!!"
285
!""!<
3( +! ! !<
3" !"
        !              "
 0!1 
!#"+0!
1%D0
!1+"!
      !        F  !    
  "  E!          "  #    "
!'!
F
  %                
2>:5
  %D "    !  !      !    
?!+0
RI
RV

RP
<3"1%"
  .          +    )!      
#!01
"/
#""+"
"<3"
" #!!0 
+! !  1  " 
!<3"
!!!<!
!""%"%"!!
  !!        !      !    
%!!!!!
!  
0!
!1
01
0"1
<39G!-01"0"1+!
4. Model Specication
!!!
  !!          #        
Ri(t)
   
",
        "    0$!  4%6  I  '
M  E  1  $    $!  8    :    ,
      "
Ri(t)
       +    0
!1    0
!  !!      !  +!    %
"-
Ri
(
t
)
=f
(
FE(t), F I
)
,4
            +   0
FE(t)=
{
F1
E(t), … , F i
E(t), … , F n
E(t)
}
1       0
10!!!
 ! +! 1   
    C
+G!,
4"-
Ri
(
t
)
=
i=1
n
βi
EwiFi
E+
i=1
m
βi
IFi
I
,6

βi
E

βi
I
!!+
       ! 
βi
E
 " # " 
"$
  " "
0$!  61
wi
      !      
+!0!!!1!
  +  
Fi
E
 0$! >1  !   
βi
E
 
βi
I
              !    
       !   
wi
!!,
!;
!-
+0 7310741 
  "    0  761            
07710681
0@3A
<  "   +  
!D!!
!
" 2:5)!#
"!
!0!"
            
1 2:5C"!!"3
!  "
Fi
E
      "          
!!"2:5'
"!" 
"+
"39+#!!
0JNL!!.JOJ!1
Factor Wild
re
Hurric
ane
Referenc
e
M" N 23A4B5
"H<" N 23A4B5
< N 23A4B5
<H&  !+  

N N 23A4B>@
>B5
?" N 23A5
H N N 2:A:35
$!!!!.
!    &    "         !    
"          9              
$  "+!!"
 ;01
!!!$
"!+!
$"!!
2@5   -               "
3  <"3  %%        H    
"
#!D+!+
0!!!1!
!(
   24@5     +          D
+!                $  C
 '  "      
! D+!< +!+
 "       " " 
 23>:45#
    !!      
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!";+
! J3L  $ !""!! " 
  G    "      !  C  "
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1      !
           !""      !  
"
0!%A
3 G      ,!        "      
  " +! !  !,
! " I
'                    !      
,!""!!
E                  
!D  !!  
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   " 4
!!"!!!!2:5
"49'#!!
0JNL!!.JOJ!1
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$ 2:35
' N 2:3:65
 N 2:A:35
01 N N 2:A:75
 2:A:65
E  !!
 N2:A5
E+! N ±2:A:3
:85
"" 2:>5
!!
!!!$
#  D  !      ' 2:35        
     0 1   
!!   ""    
24@:A:65#
!!!!!$
            +!      
!  +!    "              !!
2:A:3:85&+!
!!!2:35
* !!   !   !!
&F<C
2:A5"
&2:35!+!
!   !! "   !  
!!",6
0$=B
C !   !!0
$!B1    "   
!!,
"  "" 0
ε
1,4!""!
 " #
      !  D
"!"#"
  9     9
     ,  4   "            

f

ε
,8
Ri
(
tβ
)
=fi
(
t
)
+ε(0, σ)=fi
(
FE(t), FI
)
+ε(0, σ)
,8
 
β
            !  #   
!    
βi
E
  
βi
I
   ,  6  
ε
      
",;0
σ
1
)#""
ε
"
    "  !      "    !
7
$!"""
β
!            (      
  !       !""  " "A
βθ
 
θ
     ! ;   !"" " '
#D
    +      !        !    
!"!
     "  2::9:B5 
238523@3B@A5!
00C=(
$$!6#"
 0' (5 % (5 * (5  " (1
!!!!
$0
RI

RV

RP
1
  ! !  %
   !     < 3"  
!"""6
C"
Ri
,$
        !"        D        
!!&!"!"" 
"",>
"69!""
Behavioural state Risk Value
I
<Ri
(
tβ
)
≤ R I
'
RI<Ri
(
tβ
)
<RV
M
RV<Ri
(
tβ
)
<RP
E
RP<Ri
(
tβ
)
<+
PN ,i=P
(
<Ri
(
tβ
)
≤ RI
)
=C
(
RIfi
(
t
)
)
,>
PI , i=P
(
RI<Ri
(
tβ
)
<RV
)
=C
(
RVfi
(
t
)
)
C
(
RIfi
(
t
)
)
PV , i =P
(
RV<Ri
(
tβ
)
<RP
)
=C
(
RPfi
(
t
)
)
C
(
RVfi
(
t
)
)
PP , i=P
(
RP<Ri
(
tβ
)
<+
)
=1C
(
RPfi
(
t
)
)
 
PN ,i
 
PI , i
 
PV ,i
  
PP , i
    !""    
  "       ! 
!    +!   !   D 
  "     
ε
 ,8
<   4  !    !  !    ,  >  '  <  4    
!""
PN ,i
PI , i
PV ,i

PP , i
!
   ! 
fi
(
t
)
   !"" !
! "     "  !  
ε
PN ,i
"
PP , i

01
0"1
<49M!,8!
!010"1
,  >                  "    
  !   "   
ε
   <
;"
D,>!
?2@35
02E((
?         !   0    771  
        !    0$!  71  *    
!""!
 2B9334@4B5 $  "      !
"-'E$!"
          !    <  6            
"!
<69E
                "   "  
      "          0  $!  71    
%"!"
!<6"<!!
%!""
"!!'
!
$!""
   # " "  +   ; 
              ;    %
0$! @1 $         
!"+!0
  "  !1 G $! B  
"<!
  "    "             !    
  !        !  0      !!  !
!1$"
 % 2@45   !  !"" 
        0
Pi
L
1    0
Pi
D
1    'E  0
Pi
SIP
1    "
,:
Pi
L=eμ V i
L
eµV i
L+eμ Ii
S
Pi
S=eμ Ii
S
eμ V i
L+eμ Ii
S
Pi
F=Pi
SP
(
fight
|
stay
)
=Pi
SeµSVi
F
eµSVi
F+eµSVi
SIP
Pi
SIP=Pi
SP
(
SIP
|
stay
)
=Pi
SeµSVi
SIP
eµSVi
F+eµSVi
SIP
Ii
S=1
µS
ln (eµSVi
F+eµSVi
SIP)
,:
 
µS
       !    "     
   PD   
Pi
S
   !""   0 3%
Pi
L
1
Vi
L
 
Vi
F
 
Vi
SIP
              
              'E   $  
$!B, "+
0
FE(t), FI
1$       " 7   
0'I1+0Q1"!!
 2:5 '         " ! 
""+
" 7    !  !  
'E&
"!"
<2:85"
              "  H  
!
"!*;2:65
!
        *            !  
!2:65<!
H0!1
!2:65
  !          < +!
!+!!
     2:>@65  &            "  "
C2:A5$"" 2@75!
!!* 23A5
!'
  !  !      +!    "  #  "    
+!
"7%'+#!%0JNL
!!.JOJ!1
ID Factor Natu
re Leave Defen
dSIP Reference
3 !! 'I N N 2344::6:8@85
4 01 'I N 24@84:6:>@6@>9
@@5
6 01 'I N
7E
01 'I N 2:65
8
!! 'I N N 2845
> $ 'I N 2@@5
: ' 'I N 2845
@+  
! Q N N 2344B@@5
BE!  0
!!1 'I N 24B:6@7@@5
3A C 'I N 2@@5
33 E+! 'I R 2:A:8:>@65
34 %= 'I N
2@852865
36 !%= 'I N
37 %; 'I N
38 &%!!
" 'I N 2@75
3> & Q N 2@8@@5
3: < 'I N 2345
3@ % 'I N 2@85
3B &! Q N2:6@85
4A & Q N2:6@7@85
43 G
 'I N 2344B@@5
44 E! 'I N 2344B@6@8@@5
46 ( 
 'I N 2845
47
&
!

Q N 2@75
48 %!" 'I N 24B845
4>  Q N 2:85
4: $      
 Q N 2@>5
4@ $      
"S Q N 2@>@@5
4B $      
S Q N 2:6@>@@5
6A * 
 Q N 2:65
63 E  
 Q N 2@75
64  Q N 2@@5
S
$     !    
          0   !!1      !""
 ,: " !!"
!
"!!2B4@5
5. Model Calibration
'!!!"
"2@5"2@5
!""!D
 "     " 7 $   " 
 ! !"
 * !! 031
!!-
0  !  !""
  1.    041          "  !    
   0  !""
1$!!!
    !    D              
!!
2(
    "       2@5         %
!        78:  $        
+!"'
"78.!
!!'E
"!
"!!
!
   2@5 !  !     
             "    #  "  31  
T 4A37"E * &E&
41T4A38 "#
        $  &       "      
  !  "  E  $  )  * 26A5  '    B7
,-
% '!"01.
% &!.
% E+".
% %=%!".
% E+!"!!/
.
% '".
% !!!!!.
% E!";/4.
% %;/6.
4E!%;/!!!
!!!!!!
6;/!!
"!!!!"%,!!
!,!2@5
% E!"
".
% "".
% E!.
% '!
),"!!!
26A5<%!"
 "  =
"!!+!
9 
=!"
 !  !    ! "  

2!"
$78:!#"
"!  !873U 
!3@406B@U14:80>A4U13@9>8
*0>BU1   ! 
    !  >@:U    !      636U  
!33>U"",
  *  @AU   3A
:3U!3AA"43U
"3AA8AA"
2$(@
    !!      !!      "      !  
!""!!
<6$!!""
'E01"
  %           
"!"
"                      "   78:
!
     " 8    !   
       "   " 8  
,;$!
!     "   !"" 
      , @     !" 
  !""  0
Pi
L
1   0
Pi
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1    
!      ,  :      !""        'E
"
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L=1
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βjFij
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!
!""   " 
!"7(
            "      "  8    "
    "  #        "      "
"80!VA31!!
">
"!
0FFG1!!"8
>0FF1/*<,0EHC!17EHC!
        "  8         "        
  !    !    2@B5  *   EHC!  
">"8
""
#<
!"8>! !
"C!!
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0!!""
!""1
I""W787
AW%743634
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$/4WAAB
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#
3 E! 301>
01 A67BA: AAA> :6AU
> $3 33@%47A
 %34@: AA>8 %4:BAU
B %!! A017 %A4@A7: AAA6 %8BAU
01
36 = 3018
01 A::437 A 34BAU
36 = 3018
01 %A>88B@ AAA3 %3:4AU
48 %!" 3018
01 %A7:887 AA:7 %336AU
4> 
 3W.AW A83:43 AAB@ 3A>AU
!"!"78:
          !  0          
1-
1 "2>5;"
"7"
"!
"1 !!"
0              !!  1    
=      !  ".       !    
!
1 ="!!

1 !!!""
              !  0    =
1"8.
%!!!!
1 !  ""
!!"".
1 !!!  !
 "        
".
1 """01"!;
!
  !  01  9  01   !     !!    "  8    >
!  @6U         "        !  
        !      "  >    "      
!
$ !    !
"8031+
!041"#"
!;G!%/J!"L 2BA5 
!"!"
!""          2B35  *  #    !!    "  8  
!8
'    !!    #            !""    
          !  "        
  !  "        !    2@B5  <  "
"# !""  "
!"A3"
8#"8!2B85
!!!+!"""
!"3%"<!"
  "      !""          0"  "1  
  :>U         3%
0"1D"!
73U!""$#
"8!""""!
    !""            !    
#; +! 
- !!  ! '
"!""3U
<!""!
"8>!""
            *      
      !              " 
!0"71"!!
    +!        D    '        
 2@@5   !    !! 
!  $   
 ! !
+!JL!$
0 " 71     
!!"8!!"
""!+  D 
+!    !    
H "  +!    $    
,!
$!! !!<7
, @     !""     
H!!!>'
"8!""!""
*!!   !""
"7AU!!<
";!
#"8
>"!
344667788>>
AA
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A4
A6
A7
A8
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A:
A@
AB
3A

E!
E""
<79'!!!!""

6. Discussion and Conclusion
  !!              !  
  !                  
!      !              "  !  
!()*"!
+        "        !!  
      "          0    !"
%    !1 "    
!  !    0  'E  1 $
!!"!
!%
   "/ 
# +  "   " 
    $      "              
!    0  'E  1! 
"!
 () *"!" !
               +    
!      %          )#
 "     %
          <;;    I  I    "
  2>:5 '       !     
!!+    E$)*      "    !""      
"$!!"
" 2B45(
+  ! !  %
"$!"
          +.        !    
< !!  %
      !              !
%+2B6B75
'  !  !!  " 
"2@5!
=        !    !        
"          "        
D                        
+0"81$"!
"!!
 !" " !
      "    !      .      
    '  #      "          
%!!
          +
   !" ! @6U   " 78:
"2@5
                    !!      "  
"'E
          $            
!;!?78:
$"
"#"!
     # %!   
#  "          #  
H! $    $      
,#
              !    !    !"  
!!';!
!,
  "    "    ! &      
!   "    ,  
!    %!!
 !("#
      D  !      %  
"!"*
    ,    +!    !!      !   
"#F
References
235 C<-;I883
04A3:16AA96AA-3A3A6@H738@>%A3:%A>A4A%>
245 G$$$*I%EEEC;$!
+! 
"E3@404A3B1889>>-3A3A3>HT$I) CE$I4A3@3AAA7
265 XT"!
<*48B04A3A1>@89>B:
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275 TC&C%E)CT&*$
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($!I$
EI$ $33704A3:178@4978BA
-3A3A:6H!3>3:7>7337
285 (E'$C%-
?!*E<*( "%<
E<4A3:
2>5 $TE*GTCE&$"
=!0$16B
04A331B:9346-3A3AA:H3333>%A33%B64A%>
2:5 <$EG!*&C!
(% "'<<04A3B1
2@5 T(T&%!$
"'T)04A3:1-3A3A3>HT'T)4A3:3AA3>
2B5 T(C&T?!+!
C"-'!!'T
)4604A3:133B934:-3A3A3>HT'T)4A3:A8AA4
23A5 T**?&%
-K'T(<4304A341B38
-3A3A:3H(<33A>3
2335 $TE! 
-"-!C$*
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2345 T*)ECE#"%
$D"
'T)3304A381
6897>-3A3A3>HT'T)4A3733AA@
2365 T*(D-!"
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2375 <GY'-"
"'T704A3713B96:
-3A47B8H$<%M7%I3%3B%6:
2385 T $TEE!DE'
)*E$04A3:1-3A3333H34B63
23>5 &<G($%C))*
&!T!C3B>704AA>14339
43@-3A6373H3B>7%46
23:5 &<G(,))*&
!T!C3@@404AA713B94>
-3A6373H3@@4%A6
23@5 &*%$ $%!;%"
"!EG
4:04A3613A@933>-3A3A3>HTG4A33A>AA8
23B5 $*M E*%$!!"
";!
EG6404A3614396A-3A3A3>HTG4A36A6AAB
24A5 M)+G(C(*$)!
G!T!C463404A34138B93>6
-3A6373H4634%3:
2435 $C;*$$""TGC
!*E
>A04A3>1377938B-3A3A3>HT'*E$4A383AAA4
2445 TGTET*I" "9
('E$6704AA4144339444B-3A3A>@H67483
2465 &%%<*('!;
!*E>:04A3>18B9:6
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2475 )TGE)("G!<
=*-$!!'$!!<04A3@1
394>-3A3AA:H3A>B7%A3@%A::3%>
2485 $M<!!ET&T;;
"%!!
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-3A3A3>HTG'4A3:A:A38
24>5 C(*E "%('-
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:69@3-3A3A>3H0$G1A:66%B7@@04AA:1366-30:61
24:5 '**IE))!G)*ED
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'T(<4704A38138693>3-3A3A:3H(<34436
24@5 T(&T&T*G
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24B5 T**?T(&D%
!:<"4AABM
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... A pressing need is to improve our understanding of evacuation behavior during wildfires (Lovreglio et al., 2019). New insights can empower emergency officials to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of wildfire evacuations through improved traffic management strategies, optimized evacuation-order timing, and targeted educational campaigns among populations who are less experienced with wildfire risks. ...
... Another possibility is that it was more challenging for public officials to alert rural areas during the evacuation process (Stasiewicz & Paveglio, 2021). Yet another valid explanation is that people living in apartment-style homes in urban areas have less resources to stay and defend than people living in suburban and rural areas (Wong et al., 2022;McCaffrey et al., 2018;Lovreglio et al., 2019). Fire proximity is another factor that has rarely been measured in previous wildfire evacuation behavior studies (one exception is Lovreglio et al. (2020)). ...
... It is also worthwhile to discuss these findings in light of the broader literature. While the finding that older people are more likely to evacuate is consistent with some prior work (e.g.,Toledo et al. (2018)), other studies suggest that older individuals are more likely to stay in placeMcLennan et al. (2011);Lovreglio et al. (2019). Conceptually, both directions of associations can be possible, depending on the unique context of the event. ...
Article
Full-text available
The threat of wildfires is increasing at an alarming rate due to climate change and the expansion of the wildland-urban interface. It is critical to improve understanding of people’s evacuation decisions during wildfire emergencies. Therefore, this study proposes a novel methodology to model evacuation rates using large-scale GPS data generated by mobile devices. We first overlay socio-demographic and built environment attributes—aggregated at the census-block-group-level—to the inferred home locations of the mobile device users. We then develop a linear regression model to examine how the socio-demographic and built environment variables affect evacuation rates across census block groups. We apply the GPS data (44.2 million signal records from over 5,000 devices) collected during the 2019 Kincade Fire in Sonoma County, California to evaluate the proposed methodology. The results of the model are generally consistent with findings of a prior survey of the same fire event. We also include factors in our model that are rarely measured through previous methods and find several built environment factors such as distance to the fire, land parcel size, and residing in a high fire risk area to be correlated with evacuation rates. Another notable finding is that people living in urban block groups, block groups with a higher median age, and block groups with a higher average level of educational attainment are more likely to evacuate. This research shows that the use of GPS data is a valuable complement to existing methods in wildfire evacuation research, and provides new insights to improve evacuation planning.
... For instance, [20] proposes the addition of long-run hazard adjustments (property maintenance and preparation, equipping for fire-fighting and self-protective actions) as a factor influencing evacuating or remaining to better represent the Australian wildfire evacuation context. Lovreglio et al. [21] used the PADM as a framework for wildfire evacuation decision making model ( Figure 1). The behavioral states, in this context, are: i) Normal State, in which the individual does no change their normal activities, ii) Investigative State, in which the individual investigate the existence of the threat), iii) Vigilant state, in which the individual may start preparing to evacuate, or "wait and see", and the iv) Protective State, in which the individual applies a protection strategy. ...
... how much a single parameter changes the probability to choose one strategy over another); or (2) the combined impact of several factors through a multivariate analysis (i.e. what is the probability of choosing a strategy given a set of factors).[21] ...
... Framework of wildfire evacuation decision making model based on the PADM[21] ...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) can be defined as "the zone of transition between unoccupied land and human development." The communities in these areas are particularly vulnerable to wildfires that start and propagate in wildlands. Numerous efforts have been undertaken to address the dangers of wildfires, including building more resilient infrastructures, advancing techniques for extinguishing fires and exploring the possibilities of controlled fires. Associated with these efforts is the pressing need to ensure the safe evacuation of communities in WUI once they are threatened by wildfires. Evacuation modeling and planning is a challenging and complex problem. It involves human decisions and actions concerning if, when, and how to evacuate; directly impacting the traffic flow during the evacuation. Furthermore, the available time for a community to evacuate is a dynamic element: it changes according to the fire progression, which, in turn, depends on vegetation, weather, among other factors. The models for traffic and fire progression have advanced considerably in the past years. Human behavior modeling during wildfire evacuations has also received significant attention, leveraging existing studies for other natural hazards, such as hurricanes. However, these are mainly developed as standalone, qualitative approaches rather than integrated into a complete egress framework that accounts for traffic modeling and wildfire progression. This paper discusses the challenges of modelling human behavior during evacuations. It further presents the method adopted for integrating human behavior model into the evacuation planning tool WISE (Wildfire Safe Evacuation). WISE calculates the probability of successful evacuations through a framework that incorporates human behavior, traffic, and fire progression models using Bayesian Networks, Agent-Based models, real-world socio-demographic data, and Geographic Information System. Finally, the paper showcases the impact of the socio-demographic profile of different communities on a safe evacuation probability.
... Decision-making begins when individuals decide if they will evacuate or stay in a wildfire evacuation, which is complicated by defending behavior where individuals attempt to save their home by fighting the fire (McCaffrey and Rhodes 2009;McCaffrey and Winter 2011;Paveglio et al. 2012). Some recent work has been conducted using discrete choice analysis to understand actual behavior in wildfires in Israel (Toledo et al. 2018), fire-prone areas of the United States (McCaffrey et al. 2018), and Australia (Lovreglio et al. 2019;Kuligowski et al. 2020). However, variables that influence wildfire evacuation behavior remain only minimally supported by empirical evidence (i.e., only one or two studies). ...
... Table 3 (adapted from Wong et al. 2020c) provides a description of each of these studies. More recent studies have begun to use revealed preference data from individuals recently impacted by wildfires (for example Toledo et al. 2018;McCaffrey et al. 2018;Lovreglio et al. 2019;Wong et al. 2020a;Kuligowski et al. 2020). Toledo et al. (2018), Lovreglio et al. (2019), and Kuligowski et al. (2020) developed binary logit models to assess the factors that impacted the decision to evacuate or stay including demographics, mandatory evacuation orders, and risk perceptions. ...
... More recent studies have begun to use revealed preference data from individuals recently impacted by wildfires (for example Toledo et al. 2018;McCaffrey et al. 2018;Lovreglio et al. 2019;Wong et al. 2020a;Kuligowski et al. 2020). Toledo et al. (2018), Lovreglio et al. (2019), and Kuligowski et al. (2020) developed binary logit models to assess the factors that impacted the decision to evacuate or stay including demographics, mandatory evacuation orders, and risk perceptions. To extend the binary logit model to consider unobservable classes of individuals and model sample heterogeneity, McCaffrey et al. (2018) developed a LCCM, finding a distinct evacuate class and a distinct defend class based on wildfire risk perceptions and attitudes. ...
Article
Full-text available
For evacuations, people must make the critical decision to evacuate or stay followed by a multi-dimensional choice composed of concurrent decisions of their departure time, transportation mode, route, destination, and shelter type. These choices have important impacts on transportation response and evacuation outcomes. While extensive research has been conducted on hurricane evacuation behavior, little is known about wildfire evacuation behavior. To address this critical research gap, particularly related to joint choice-making in wildfires, we surveyed individuals impacted by the 2017 December Southern California Wildfires (n = 226) and the 2018 Carr Wildfire (n = 284). Using these data, we contribute to the literature in two key ways. First, we develop two latent class choice models (LCCMs) to evaluate the factors that influence the decision to evacuate or stay/defend. We find an evacuation keen class and an evacuation reluctant class that are influenced differently by mandatory evacuation orders. This nuance is further supported by different membership of people to the classes based on demographics and risk perceptions. Second, we develop two portfolio choice models (PCMs), which jointly model choice dimensions to assess multi-dimensional evacuation choice. We find several similarities between wildfires including a joint preference for within-county and nighttime evacuations and a joint dislike for within-county and highway evacuations. Altogether, this paper provides evidence of heterogeneity in response to mandatory evacuation orders for wildfires, distinct membership of populations to different classes of people for evacuating or staying/defending, and clear correlation among key wildfire evacuation choices that necessitates joint modeling to holistically understanding wildfire evacuation behavior.
... The questionnaire is divided into three main sections covering a total of 40 questions. The questionnaire's first section consists of questions (Alsnih et al., 2005;Lovreglio et al., 2019b;McLennan et al., 2015;McNeill et al., 2016;Mozumder et al., 2008;Strahan et al., 2018;Strawderman et al., 2012) (Dow and Cutter, 2000;Meyer et al., 2013;Perry and Lindell, 1991;Ricchetti-Masterson and Horney, 2013;Whitehead et al., 2000) ( Perry et al., 2006;Tobin et al., 2011) Official warning sources ↑ (Fischer et al., 1995;Lovreglio et al., 2019b;McCaffrey et al., 2018;Strahan et al., 2018;Strawderman et al., 2012) (Baker, 1995;Burnside, 2006;Burnside et al., 2007;Huang et al., 2012;Lamb et al., 2012;Rosenkoetter et al., 2007a;West and Orr, 2007) (Drabek, 1969;Drabek and Stephenson, 1971) ( concerning a description of the events before and during the wildfire. More specifically, there are questions about how the respondents received a warning of the fire, their evacuation decision, and the logistics of their evacuation. ...
... The questionnaire is divided into three main sections covering a total of 40 questions. The questionnaire's first section consists of questions (Alsnih et al., 2005;Lovreglio et al., 2019b;McLennan et al., 2015;McNeill et al., 2016;Mozumder et al., 2008;Strahan et al., 2018;Strawderman et al., 2012) (Dow and Cutter, 2000;Meyer et al., 2013;Perry and Lindell, 1991;Ricchetti-Masterson and Horney, 2013;Whitehead et al., 2000) ( Perry et al., 2006;Tobin et al., 2011) Official warning sources ↑ (Fischer et al., 1995;Lovreglio et al., 2019b;McCaffrey et al., 2018;Strahan et al., 2018;Strawderman et al., 2012) (Baker, 1995;Burnside, 2006;Burnside et al., 2007;Huang et al., 2012;Lamb et al., 2012;Rosenkoetter et al., 2007a;West and Orr, 2007) (Drabek, 1969;Drabek and Stephenson, 1971) ( concerning a description of the events before and during the wildfire. More specifically, there are questions about how the respondents received a warning of the fire, their evacuation decision, and the logistics of their evacuation. ...
Article
The objective of this paper is to analyze the household response behavior of road users during community evacuations in response to the 2018 Attica wildfires in Greece. To achieve this objective, empirical data were obtained from a questionnaire survey completed by residents from the affected areas by the wildfires of the East Attica in 2018. The design of the survey questionnaire was guided by the Protective Action Decision Model – PADM. Logistic regression models and machine learning techniques such as random forests were developed to identify the critical factors influencing the decision to evacuate or not, as well as the mode choice during evacuation. Findings reveal that the perception of risk, age, years in residence, the number of adults up to 65 years of age in residence, the attempt to obtain information before evacuation, gender, the existence of a prior warning, the number of minors in residence, the level of education and income were the most critical factors to the decision to evacuate during the wildfire. Regarding the mode choice, the most critical factors were the existence of an available vehicle, age, the attempt to obtain information before the evacuation and the perception of risk.
... To improve wildfire life safety and enhance the resilience of WUI communities, it is important to understand household behavior and movement (Lovreglio et al., 2019). Such knowledge can inform emergency managers to develop appropriate response measures and make effective decisions in a wildfire event, such as planning traffic management strategies, sequentially issuing evacuation orders, providing support for disadvantaged travelers, and undertaking rescues. ...
... This result suggests that the local residents were sensitive to wildfire risks, likely because they had prior experience with the 2017 Tubbs Fire (which burned parts of Sonoma, Napa, and Lake counties and was the most destructive wildfire in the history of California until 2017) (Kuligowski et al., 2022). This trend is in line with the literature showing that previous wildfire experiences increase both people's risk perception and can increase their probability of householders to evacuate during a natural disaster (Benight, 2004;Lovreglio et al., 2019). Shadow evacuation indicates people who evacuated even though they might not have been required to (Dash and Gladwin, 2007). ...
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Recently, wildfires have created severe challenges for fire and emergency services and communities in the wildland-urban interface (WUI). To reduce wildfire risk and enhance the safety of WUI communities, improving our understanding of wildfire evacuation is a pressing need. This study proposes a new methodology to analyze wildfire evacuation by leveraging a large-scale GPS dataset. This methodology includes a proxy-home-location inference algorithm and an evacuation-behavior inference algorithm, to systematically identify different groups of wildfire evacuees (i.e., self-evacuee, shadow evacuee, evacuee under warning , and ordered evacuee). We applied the methodology to the 2019 Kincade Fire in Sonoma County, CA. We found that among all groups of evacuees, self-evacuees and shadow evacuees accounted for more than half of the evacuees during the Kincade Fire. The findings of this study can be used by emergency managers and transportation planners to better prepare WUI households for future wildfire events.
... Early examples of descriptive statistics for fires include Fischer III et al. (1995) for the Ephrata Fire in Pennsylvania and Benight et al. (2004) for the 2002 Colorado Wildfires. More recently, research across various geographies has focused on developing discrete choice models using data from evacuees and non-evacuees to assess the factors that influence behavior (Strahan, 2017;Toledo et al., 2018;McCaffrey et al., 2018;Lovreglio et al., 2019;Wong et al., 2020a). A brief review of these discrete choice studies, along with research that used hypothetical wildfire data, is presented in Wong et al. (2020a), while a full review of wildfire evacuation behavior studies can be found in McLennan et al. (2018). ...
... Additional research in wildfire evacuations has extended to simulation and traffic modeling (Cova and Johnson, 2002;Wolshon and Marchive III, 2007;Chen and Zhan, 2008;Beloglazov et al., 2016;Ronchi et al., 2017;Intini et al., 2019;Gwynne et al., 2019;Ronchi et al., 2019), transportation response strategies (Cova and Johnson, 2003;Shahabi and Wilson, 2018) including trigger models for evacuations (Dennison et al., 2007;Larsen et al., 2011;Li et al., 2015;Li et al., 2019), and framing of decision-making (Nguyen et al., 2018;Folk et al., 2019;Lovreglio et al., 2019). ...
Technical Report
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Between 2017 and 2019, California experienced a series of devastating wildfires that together led over one million people to be ordered to evacuate. Due to the speed of many of these wildfires, residents across California found themselves in challenging evacuation situations, often at night and with little time to escape. These evacuations placed considerable stress on public resources and infrastructure for both transportation and sheltering. In the face of these clear challenges, transportation and emergency management agencies across California have widely varying levels of preparedness for major disasters, and nearly all agencies do not have the public resources to adequately and swiftly evacuate all populations in danger. To holistically address these challenges and bolster current disaster and evacuation planning, preparedness, and response in California, we summarize the evacuations of eleven major wildfires in California between 2017 and 2019 and offer a cross-comparison to highlight key similarities and differences. We present results of new empirical data we collected via an online survey of individuals impacted by: 1) the 2017 October Northern California Wildfires (n=79), 2) the 2017 December Southern California Wildfires (n=226), and 3) the 2018 Carr Wildfire (n=284). These data reveal the decision-making of individuals in these wildfires including choices related to evacuating or staying, departure timing, route, sheltering, destination, transportation mode, and reentry timing. We also present results related to communication and messaging, non-evacuee behavior, and opinion of government response. Using the summarized case studies and empirical evidence, we present a series of recommendations for agencies to prepare for, respond to, and recover from wildfires.
... As these trends continue, the negative impacts caused by wildfires are expected to worsen. It is of pressing need to better understand people's evacuation behavior during wildfires as these events continue to worsen (Lovreglio et al., 2019). New insights can empower emergency officials to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of wildfire evacuations through improved traffic management strategies, optimized evacuation order timing, and targeted educational campaigns among populations who are inexperienced with wildfire risks. ...
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The threat of wildfires is increasing at an alarming rate due to climate change and the expansion of the wildland-urban interface. It's more important now than ever for emergency officials to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of wildfire evacuations. One important area of research is to better understand people's evacuation decisions during wildfire emergencies. To this end, this study develops a new census-block-group-level evacuation rate model built from large-scale GPS data generated by mobile devices, which complements traditional research approaches such as surveys, focus groups, and traffic modeling. Specifically , we developed a linear regression model to examine how socio-demographic and built environment variables affect evacuation rates across census block groups. We used GPS data collected during the 2019 Kincade Fire in California. The results are generally consistent with findings of a prior survey study of the same fire event. Additionally, several built environment factors such as distance to the fire, land parcel size, and whether the person lives in a high fire risk area were found to be correlated with evacuation rates. This research shows that the use of GPS data is a valuable complement to existing research methods in wildfire evacuation research.
... A review of this hurricane literature using discrete choice models can be found in Wong et al., (2018b). A sizable literature also exists for evacuee behavior in other hazards, such as wildfires (see Lovreglio et al., 2019;Kuligowski, 2020;Wong et al., 2020d for reviews). ...
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Recent technological improvements have expanded the sharing economy (e.g., Airbnb, Lyft, and Uber), coinciding with growing need for evacuation resources. To understand influencers on sharing willingness in evacuations, we employed a multi-modeling approach using three model types: 1) four binary logit models that capture sharing scenario separately; 2) a portfolio choice model (PCM) that estimates dimensional dependency, and 3) a multi-choice latent class choice model (LCCM) that jointly estimates multiple scenarios via latent classes. We tested our approach by employing online survey data from 2017 Hurricane Irma evacuees (n=368). The multi-model approach uncovered behavioural nuances undetectable with one model. For example, the multi-choice LCCM and PCM models uncovered scenario correlation and the multi-choice LCCM found three classes – transportation sharers, adverse sharers, and interested sharers – with different memberships. We suggest that local agencies consider holistic sharing mechanisms across resource types and time (i.e., before, during, and after evacuations).
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Many places around the world periodically suffer from wildfires that threaten lives and disrupt normal traffic operations. Poor traffic performance during wildfires can inhibit the effectiveness of evacuations. Understanding traffic performance during a wildfire would therefore help transportation operators develop emergency traffic control plans. In this study, we developed a traffic speed and flow prediction model that uses support vector regression (SVR), for use during wildfire incidents. This was constructed using historical data for wildfires in California from 2010 to 2019, which were paired with records of the traffic speed and flow on adjacent highways and the prevailing weather conditions during the wildfire events. The results showed that traffic performance during a wildfire could be predicted using the SVR model. Based on our prediction results, we recommend that policies be implemented to encourage or mandate more detailed data collection of wildfire events, such as the fire’s boundary over time, to facilitate better prediction results in models like the one proposed in this paper. This paper should inspire further work on the topic to improve the model and provide a reliable prediction tool for transportation operators in the future.
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For Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) residents, wildfire is a constant, growing risk. A timely response to wildfire is vital for human survival. Yet, upon receiving fire cues, previous studies show that instead of taking protective action, people often first wait and see how the situation unfolds. The circumstances under which ‘wait and see’ responses manifest have received research attention in Australia and North America. However, it is unclear whether the findings extend to European regions, given the scarcity of such research there. So, this study surveyed and systematically compared the responses of residents in French and Australian at-risk regions (N = 450). Those with recent wildfire experience described their actual responses; those lacking experience provided responses to a hypothetical fire. The results showed regional differences, with participants in France tending to choose to ‘wait and see’ more often than participants in Australia. There was less waiting when participants received environmental as compared to social cues, although the type of environmental/social cue appeared to moderate this behaviour. The cessation of waiting requires further study but early signs are that it may not always be followed by optimal action. Lacking preparedness and wildfire experience affected responses. Peri-event perceived risk also proved meaningful, unlike pre-event perceived risk.. These findings have implications for wildfire evacuation modelling (when developing simulation scenarios and evacuation triggers) as well as for wildfire management (when using evacuation models for planning or response, when designing interventions such as the education of residents).
Technical Report
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The present work describes a novel framework for modelling wildfire urban evacuations. The framework is based on multi-physics simulations that can quantify the evacuation performance. The work argues that an integrated approached requires considering and integrating all three important components of WUI evacuation, namely: fire spread, pedestrian movement, and traffic movement. The report includes a systematic review of each model component, and the key features needed for the integration into a comprehensive toolkit.
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Wildfires across western North America have increased in number and size over the past three decades, and this trend will continue in response to further warming. As a consequence, the wildland–urban interface is projected to experience substantially higher risk of climate-driven fires in the coming decades. Although many plants, animals, and ecosystem services benefit from fire, it is unknown how ecosystems will respond to increased burning and warming. Policy and management have focused primarily on specified resilience approaches aimed at resistance to wildfire and restoration of areas burned by wildfire through fire suppression and fuels management. These strategies are inadequate to address a new era of western wildfires. In contrast, policies that promote adaptive resilience to wildfire, by which people and ecosystems adjust and reorganize in response to changing fire regimes to reduce future vulnerability, are needed. Key aspects of an adaptive resilience approach are (i) recognizing that fuels reduction cannot alter regional wildfire trends; (ii) targeting fuels reduction to increase adaptation by some ecosystems and residential communities to more frequent fire; (iii) actively managing more wild and prescribed fires with a range of severities; and (iv) incentivizing and planning residential development to withstand inevitable wildfire. These strategies represent a shift in policy and management from restoring ecosystems based on historical baselines to adapting to changing fire regimes and from unsustainable defense of the wildland– urban interface to developing fire-adapted communities. We propose an approach that accepts wildfire as an inevitable catalyst of change and that promotes adaptive responses by ecosystems and residential communities to more warming and wildfire. wildfire | resilience | forests | wildland–urban interface | policy