ASTERIG. A szerencsejáték-termékek függőségi kockázatainak egy lehetséges mérése és empirikus vizsgálata a Magyarországon kínált szerencsejátékokra

Abstract

Bár a legtöbb ember, aki szerencsejátékot játszik, ezt anélkül teszi, hogy rá nézve káros következményei lennének e tevékenységnek, mégis egyeseknek visszatérő, maladaptív viselkedészavart okoz a szerencsejáték. Gyakran a kóros játékszenvedély pénzügyi veszteséggel jár, problémát okoz a családban és az interperszonális kapcsolatokban, továbbá más pszichiátriai rendellenességekkel együtt fordul elő. Közismert, hogy a különböző típusú szerencsejátékok különböző mértékben vezetnek maladaptív mintákhoz a szerencsejátékos viselkedésben . Közcél, hogy kiegyensúlyozott hozzáféréssel a szerencsejátékok kockázatát minimalizáljuk.
Egészen a közelmúltig ezen kockázat pontos felmérésének lehetősége a különböző szerencsejáték termékeknél szinte lehetetlen volt.
Az ASTERIG nevű eszközt, eredetileg Németországban fejlesztették ki 2006 és 2010 között . Ez tulajdonképpen egy olyan értékelési eszköz, amellyel tíz dimenzió mentén lehet mérni a kockázatot - különböző pontszámok alapján - bármely szerencsejáték termékek esetén. Az értékelés során a függőségi potenciál szempontjából lehet összehasonlítást végezni a különböző szerencsejáték termékek között.
Az értékelés lehetővé teszi, hogy akár a jogalkotási, joggyakorlati és közigazgatási szinten alkalmazzák, mivel megmutatja minden egyes játék egyedi kockázati potenciálját, ezáltal lehetővé teszi a kockázat pontos meghatározását .
Az egyes szerencsejáték termékek veszélyességi potenciáljának beazonosítása és összehasonlítása globálisan 10 különböző kockázati dimenzió mentén történik. Megjegyezzük, hogy minden egyes szerencsejáték termékeknél egyedileg kell a termékjellemzőket figyelembe venni, nem pedig termékcsoportonként (lottók, gépek, sorsjegyek) vagy szolgáltatónként, mivel eltérések lehetnek az egyedi azonosítók között, és a termékcsoportokon belül is eltérő lehet az egyes termékek kockázati potenciálja. Például a játékgépeken változhat a jackpot összege, amely hatással lehet a potenciális kockázatra.
Ez az objektív és szisztematikus eszköz, segíthet az orvosi és pszichológiai kutatásokban, és a
politikai döntéshozatalban, annak a kockázatnak az értékeléséhez, mely az egyes szerencsejáték termékeket összehasonlítja más szerencsejátékokkal.
Emellett nemzetközi kontextusban is lehetővé teszi a különböző szerencsejátékos termékek kockázati mértékének beazonosítását. Hasonló kutatások folynak Nagy- Britanniában , Finnországban és Svédországban . Ugyanakkor ezeknek a kutatásoknak az empirikus eredményei még nem jelentek meg, így az értékelésük is nehéz .

Full text

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"!1!"!!
!
!!!
Assessment!Tool!to!Measure!and!Evaluate!the!
Risk!Potential!of!Gambling!Products!
ASTERIG!
A!global!validation!
!
by!
!
Carlos!Blanco!
Alex!Blaszczynski!!
Reiner!Clement!
Jeffrey!Derevensky!
Anna!E.!Goudriaan!
David!C.!Hodgins!
Ruth!J.!van!Holst!
Ángela!Ibáñez!!
Silvia!S.!Martins!
Chantal!Moersen!
Sabrina!Molinaro!
Adrian!Parke!
Franz!W.!Peren!
Nancy!M.!Petry!
Heather!Wardle!
!
May!2013!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"!2!"!!
!
!
!
"#$%&$%'!()*&!
!
List!of!tables!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!3!
List!of!figures!!!!!!!!!!!!3!
!
1! Introduction!!!!!!!!!!!4!
2! Methodology!!!!!!!!!!!5!
3! Example!!!!!!!!!12!
4! Conclusion!and!future!directions!!!!!!20!
5! References!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!21!
!
!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"!3!"!!
!
+,'%!#-!%)./&'!
!
Table!1:!!Experts!of!global!validation!of!ASTERIG! ! !!!! ! !!6!
Table!2:!!Approach:!multiplication!of!general!weights!with!individual!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!individual!scales!!!!!!!11!
Table!3:!!Approach:!multiplication!of!general!weights!with!individual!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!scales!of!the!fictitious!sport!betting!game!bet$for$soccer! ! 16!
Table!4:!!Risk!potential!classification!of!gambling!products!!!19*
!
!
+,'%!#-!-,*01&'!
!
Figure!1:!!Radar!chart!showing!the!risk!potential!of!the!fictitious!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!sport!betting!game!bet$for$soccer! ! ! ! ! 17!
Figure!2:!!Bar!chart!showing!the!risk!potential!of!the!fictitious!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!sport!betting!game!bet$for$soccer! ! ! ! ! 18!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"!4!"!!
!
2!!!3$%1#405%,#$!
Although!most!individuals!who!gamble!do!so!without!any!adverse!consequences,!some!
individuals!develop!a!recurrent,!maladaptive!pattern!of!gambling!behaviour,!often!called!
pathological! gambling! or! gambling! disorder,! that! is! associated! with! financial! losses,!
disruption! of! family! and! interpersonal! relationships,! and! co"occurring! psychiatric!
disorders.!Identifying!whether!different!types!of!gambling!modalities!vary!in!their!ability!
to! lead! to! maladaptive! patterns! of! gambling! behaviour! is! essential! to! develop! public!
policies!that! seek!to! balance!access! to!gambling! opportunities!with! minimizing!risk! for!
the! potential! adverse! consequences! of! gambling! behaviour.1! Until! recently,! assessing!
the! risk! potential! of! different! types! of! gambling! products! was! nearly! impossible.!
ASTERIG,! initially! developed! in! Germany! in! 2006"2010,2! is! an! assessment! tool! to!
measure!and!to!evaluate!the!risk!potential!of!any!gambling!product!based!on!scores!on!
ten! dimensions.! In! doing! so,! it! also! allows! a! comparison! to! be! drawn! between! the!
addictive! potential! of! different! gambling! products.! Furthermore,! the! tool! highlights!
where!the!specific! risk!potential!of! each! specific!gambling!product! lies.!This!makes! it!a!
valuable!tool! at!the! legislative,!case! law,! and! administrative! levels!as! it!allows! the!risk!
potential!of! individual! gambling!products! to!be!identified! and!to! be! compared!globally!
and! across! 10! different! dimensions! of! risk! potential.! We! note! that! specific! gambling!
products! should! always! be! evaluated! rather! than! product! groups! (lotteries,! slot!
machines)! or! providers,! as! there! may! be! variations! among! those! product! groups! that!
impact! their! risk! potential.! For! example,! slot! machines! may! vary! on! the! amount! of!
jackpot,!which!may!influence!their!risk!potential.!
!
The!availability! of!an!objective,! systematic!tool! to!assess!the! risk!potential! of!different!
gambling!products!could!help! medical!and!psychological!scientists,! lawyers,!judges!and!
policy"makers! assess! the! risk! potential! of! a! special! gambling! product! and! potentially!
allow!objective!comparisons!with!other!gambling!products.3!
!
Also,! within! an! international! context,! the! desire! for! classifying! the! degree! of! risk!
potential! of! gambling! products! is! beyond! controversy.! Similar! research! activities! from!
Great!Britain,4! Finland5! and! Sweden6! are!known.! However! the!empirical! base!of! these!
operations!has!not!been!published,!making!their!assessment!difficult.7!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
1!Cf.!Peren!(2011).!
2!ASTERIG!was!originally!published!in!The*Journal*of*Gambling*Business*and*Economics,*2011,*Vol.*5,*No.*2,*
pp*54$66.!Cf.!Peren!(2011).!!
3!Cf.!Clement,!Goudriaan,!van!Holst,!Molinaro,!Moersen,!Nilsson,!Parke,!Peren,!Rebeggiani,!Stoever,!
Terlau,!Wilhelm!(2012).!!
4!GamGARD!"!Gaming!Assessment!Measure!–!Guidance!about!Responsible!Design;!
http://www.gamgard.com![viewed!2013"03"17].!

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!
6!!!7&%8#4#/#*9!!
!
All! gambling! products! do! not! have! the! same! risk! potential.! Gambling! products! are!
characterized! by! situational! parameters! realized! in! observable! scales! that! combined,!
result! in! more! or! less! distinct! risk! potential.! Significant! parameters! can! be! identified!
through!expert!consensus!within!the!framework!of!a!Delphi!study.8!!
!
Therefore,!two!years!after!ASTERIG!was!developed,!it!made!sense!for!it!to!be!validated!
and! updated! with! the! input! of! an! international! group! of! researchers! to! refine! and!
enhance!the!instrument.!A! global!survey!of!experts! on!gambling!disorder!research!and!
treatment!using!a!standardized!questionnaire!was!undertaken!to!improve!ASTERIG.!!
!
Development!of!the!revised! ASTERIG!was!based!on!the!already!existing!ASTERIG"model!
and!was!completed!in!two!rounds.!In!the!first!round,!the!experts!were!sent!a!proposed!
revision! of! the! original! ASTERIG! and! were! asked! first! to! review! and! to! propose!
improvements! for! the! dimensions! (significant! parameters)! of! the! ASTERIG"model,!
including!the!possibility! of!giving!their!own! proposed!scales.!The!experts! were!allowed!
to!change!or!modify!the!dimensions!as!well!as!the!original!scales!as!much!as!necessary.!
They!were!also!allowed!to!suggest!addition!or!deletion!of!new!dimensions!and!to!change!
the! range! of! the! existing! dimensions.! In! the! original! version! there! were! scales! whose!
range!did!not!include!zero.!This!implied!that!those!dimensions!would!always!contribute!
to!the!overall!score,!regardless!of!the!characteristics!of!the!game.!!
!
Based!on!responses!to!the!first!round,!results!were!summarized!and!a!second!round!was!
sent! to! all! experts! who! contributed! to! the! first! round.! Participants! in! the! survey,!
conducted!in!the!fall!and!winter!of!2012!are!listed!in!Table!1.!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
5!Product!Evaluation!Method!for!Reducing!Potential!Hazards!(Finland);!http://www.veikkaus.fi![viewed!
2013"03"17].!
6!Playscan!(Sweden);!http://www.spelinstitutet.se![viewed!2013"03"17].!
7!Cp.!Peren!(2009).!!
8!The!Delphi!method!is!a!structured!communication!technique!in!form!of!a!systematic,!multi"level,!and!
feedback"orientated!procedure,!in!which!in!several!runs!interrogations!of!a!panel!of!experts!for!problem!
solving!solutions!are!surveyed,!until!a!pre"defined!stop!criterion!is!achieved.!Cf.!Linstone,!H.A.,!Turoff,!M.!
(1975);!http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method![viewed!2013"03"17].!
!
!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"!6!"!!
!
:;(&1%'!
"#0$%19!
3$'%,%0%,#$!
Dr.!Carlos!Blanco!
<=>!
Department!of!Psychiatry!Columbia!University,!
New!York!State!Psychiatric!Institute!!
Dr.!Alex!Blaszczynski!
><=!
University!of!Sydney,!School!of!Psychology!
Dr.!Reiner!Clement!
?:!
Bonn"Rhein"Sieg!University,!Department!of!
Business!
Dr.!Jeffrey!Derevensky!
">@!
McGill!University,!!International!Centre!for!Youth!
Gambling!Problems!and!High!Risk!Behaviors!
Dr.!Anna!E.!Goudriaan!
@+!
University!of!Amsterdam,!Academic!Medical!
Center!
Dr.!David!C.!Hodgins!
">@!
University!of!Calgary,!Department!of!Psychology!
Dr.!Ruth!J.!van!Holst!
@+!
University!of!Amsterdam,!Academic!Medical!
Center!
Dr.!Ángela!Ibáñez!
:=A!
Alcala!University,!Department!of!Psychiatry,!
Ramon!y!Cajal!Hospital!
Dr.!Silvia!S.!Martins!
<=>!
Columbia!University,!Mailman!School!of!Public!
Health!
Dr.!Chantal!Moersen!
?:!
Charité!Berlin!
Dr.!Sabrina!Molinaro!
3!
CNR!"!Istituto!di!Fisiologia!Clinica!Sezione!di!
Epidemiologia!Pisa!
Dr.!Adrian!Parke!
<B!
University!of!Lincoln!
Dr.!Franz!W.!Peren!
?:!
Bonn"Rhein"Sieg!University,!Department!of!
Business!
Dr.!Nancy!M.!Petry!
<=>!
University!of!Connecticut,!Health!Center!
Heather!Wardle!
<B!
National!Centre!for!Social!Research!
Table!1:!!Experts!of!global!validation!of!ASTERIG!
!
The! experts! agreed! that! the! following! ten! dimensions! (parameters)! provided! a! useful!
framework! to! examine! the! risk! potential! of! different! gambling! products.! The! experts!
chose!ten!relevant!dimensions!with!the!following!scales,!in!which!higher!scores!indicate!
higher!risk!potential.!Those!scales!have!been!modified!and!have!been!standardized!the!
range! of! the! scales! for! all! dimensions! between! 0! (of! no! importance)! and! 10! (of! very!
great!importance).!All!scales!are!made!symmetric.!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"!7!"!!
!
!
2C :D&$%!-1&E0&$59!
!
Definition:!Unit!of!time!between!stake,!gambling!result!and!next!stake!opportunity.!
!
=5)/&!
!
>!6!days!
!
>!24!hrs!
!
≤!6!days!
!
!
>!1!hr!
!
≤!24!hrs!
!
!
>!10!min!
!
≤!1!hr!
!
>!3!min!
!
≤!10!min!
>!1!min!
!
≤!3!min!
>!15!sec!
!
≤!1!min!
!
>!5!sec!
!
≤!15!sec!
!
!
!
!
≤!5!sec!
0!
1.25!
2.5!
3.75!
5!
6.25!
7.5!
8.75!
10!
!
!
!
!
6C 3$%&1D)/!#-!()9.)5F!
Definition:!Period!of!time!between!gambling!result!and!notification!of!payment!or!actual!
receipt!of!payment.!
!
=5)/&!
!
>!6!days!
!
>!24!hrs!
!
≤!6!days!
!
!
>!1!hr!
!
≤!24!hrs!
!
!
>!10!min!
!
≤!1!hr!
!
>!3!min!
!
≤!10!min!
>!1!min!
!
≤!3!min!
>!15!sec!
!
≤!1!min!
!
>!5!sec!
!
≤!15!sec!
!
!
!
!
≤!5!sec!
0!
1.25!
2.5!
3.75!
5!
6.25!
7.5!
8.75!
10!
!
GC H)5F(#%!
Definition:!An!extraordinary!top!prize!typically!in!the!form!of!a!large!amount!of!money!
formed!by!the!accumulation!of!previous!bets.!
!
=5)/&!!
non!existent!
!
≥!0!$!
!
<!100!$!
!
!
≥!100!$!
!
<!1.000!$!
!
!
≥!1.000!$!
!
<!10.000!$!
!
!
≥!10.000!$!
!
<!50.000!$!
!
!
≥!50.000!$!
!
<!100.000!$!
!
!
≥!100.000!$!
!
<!1!Mio.!$!
!
!
≥!1!Mio.!$!
!
!
0!
1.25!
2.5!
4!
6!
7.5!
8.75!
10!
!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"!8!"!!
!
!
IC "#$%,$0,%9!#-!(/)9,$*!
Definition:!Period!of!time!during!which!it!is!possible!to!gamble!without!interruption.!!
!
=5)/&!!
≤!5!min!
of!continuous!
gambling!!
!
!
>!5!min!
≤!30!min!
of!continuous!
gambling!
!
!
>!30!min!
≤!1!hour!
of!continuous!
gambling!
!
!
>!1!hour!
≤!3!hrs!
of!continuous!
gambling!
!
>!3!hrs!
of!continuous!
gambling!
0!
2.5!
5!
7.5!
10!
!
!
!
!
JC "8)$5&!#-!K,$$,$*!)!(1#-,%!
Definition:!The!probability!of!realizing!a!profit!with!each!game.!
!
=5)/&!
0%!
>!0!%!
≤!0,1!%!
>!0,1!%!
≤!0,5!%!
>!0,5!%!
≤!1!%!
>!1!%!
≤!5!%!
>!5!%!
≤!10!%!
>!10!%!
≤!25!
>!25%!
0!
1,25!
2.5!
4!
6!
7.5!
8,75!
10!
!
!
!
!
LC >D),/).,/,%9!
Definition:!Possibility!of!accessing!gambling!opportunities.!
!
=5)/&!
!
Gambling!
opportunities!
within!a!
radius!of!>!
100!km!
!
Gambling!
opportunities!
within!a!
radius!from!
>!25!km!!to!!!
≤!!100!km!
!
!
Gambling!
opportunities!
within!a!
radius!from!
!>!10!km!to!!!
≤!!25!km!!
!
Gambling!
opportunities!
within!a!
radius!from!
>!1!km!!to!!!
≤!!10!km!!
!
Gambling!
opportunities!
within!a!
radius!of!!
≤!!1!km!!
!
Gambling!
opportunities!
at!home!/!
workplace!
0!
2.5!
4!
6!
7.5!
10!
!
!
!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"!9!"!!
!
!
MC 70/%,(/&!(/)9,$*NO'%)F&!#((#1%0$,%,&'!
Definition:!Opportunity!to!play! several! stakes!at!the!same!time! (e.g.!betting!on!several!
roulette! numbers)! or! to! take! part! in! several! gambling! opportunities! at! the! same! time!
(e.g.!playing!different!slot"machines!at!the!same!time!or!playing!different!online"poker"
tables!on!different!screens!at!the!same!time).!
!
=5)/&'!
no!multiple!playing!
opportunity!
and!no!multiple!stake!
opportunity!
multiple!playing!
opportunities!or!multiple!
stake!opportunities!
multiple!playing!
opportunities!and!multiple!
stake!opportunities!
0!
5!
10!
!
!
!
PC Q)1,)./&!'%)F&!)R#0$%!
Definition:!Extent!to!which!gamblers!can!choose!or!modify!their!stake!amounts!while!
playing.
=5)/&!
!
no!variable!(=!fixed)!!
stake!amount!!
variable!stake,!!
limited!stake!amount!!
variable!stake,!
unlimited!stake!amount!!
0!
5!
10!
!
!
!
SC =&$'#19!(1#405%!4&',*$!
Definition:!Auditory!and!visual!effects.!
!
=5)/&!!
non"existent!
auditory!or!visual!effects!exist!
auditory!and!visual!effects!exist!
0!
5!
10!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"!10!"!!
!
!
2TC @&)1!K,$'!!
Definition:!Results!when!a!gambler!supposes!to!almost!win!(to!miss!the!profit!narrowly;!
a!near!win).!
!
=5)/&!!
non"existent!!
un"intentionally!created,!
occurring!by!chance!
intentionally!created!by!
supplier/!producer,!!
occurring!more!frequently!
than!random!
0!
5!
10!
!
!
Given!that!some!dimensions!may!be!more!important!that!others!in!increasing!the!risk!of!
potential! of! the! gambling! product,! the! experts! were! asked! to! assign! weights! for! each!
parameter!regarding!their!risk!potential.!The!weights!were!also!standardized!between!0!
(of!no!importance)!and!10!(of!very!great!importance).!!
The!overall!risk!potential!of!a!gambling!product!is!obtained!by!multiplying!the!weight!of!
each!dimension!by!the!score!on!that!dimension!and!adding!up!the!weighted!scores!of!all!
ten!dimensions.! Thus!the! range! ASTERIG! is! 0"620,!where! the!maximum! is!obtained! by!
multiplying!the!resulting!individual! points!of!each!dimension! (which! always!range!from!
0"10)!by!the!weight!of!those!dimensions!(which!could!also!range!theoretically!from!0"10,!
but!which!are!fixed!by!the!experts!currently!between!4"8).!Based!on!the!particular!scales!
and! on! the! general! weights! of! dimensions,! the! result! is! a! number! of! points! with! a!
maximum!of!620!points!=!62!(sum!of!the!weights)!x!10!(maximum!scale),!which!can!be!
normalized!to!a!maximum!score9!of!maximum!10!by!dividing!by!62!(i.e.,!620:!62)10.!
The!different!meaning!of!dimensions!of!the!risk!potential!of!each!gambling!product!can!
be!visualized!by!a!scorecard.!Scorecards!are!suitable!for!quantitative!assessments!during!
analysis! of! potentials! and! risks,! for! the! estimation! of! product"! and! performance"ideas!
and!further!problems.!Scorecards!are!suited!for!the!quantitative!evaluation!of!potential!
and!risk!analyses!to!assess!product!and!service!ideas!and!many!other!factors.11!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
9!To!use!scores!respectively!a!scorecard!is!recommended!because!one!factor!(the!weights)!of!the!two!
factors!is!fixed.!The!weights!do!not!vary!from!case!to!case.!A!score!from!maximum!10!means!that!the!risk!
potential!of!addiction!would!be!reached!in!maximum!in!all!dimensions.!!
10!By!divining!the!total!points!–!here!at!the!maximum!=!620!points!–!through!62!(=!sum!of!the!fix!weights)!
the!total!scores!are!getting!normalized!into!a!range!between!0"10.!!
11!Scorecards!have!been!used!e.g.!in!studies!for!structuring!and!supporting!decisions!of!companies.!See!on!
this!topic!Clement,!Peren!(1998).!http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peren%E2%80%93Clement_Index![viewed!
2013"03"17].!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"!11!"!!
!
U,'F!(#%&$%,)/!51,%&1,)!
K&,*8%'!
'5)/&'!
1)$*&!#-!D)/0&26!
Event!frequency!
8!
0!"!10!
0!"!80!
Interval!of!payback!
6!
0!"!10!
0!"!60!
Jackpot!
5!
0!"!10!
0!"!50!
Continuity!of!playing!
8!
0!"!10!
0!"!80!
Chance!of!winning!a!profit!
6!
0!"!10!
0!"!60!
Availability!
7!
0!"!10!
0!"!70!
Multiple!playing"/stake!
opportunities!
6!
0!"!10!
0!"!60!
Variable!stake!amount!
6!
0!"!10!
0!"!30!
Sensory!product!design!
4!
0!"!10!
0!"!40!
Near!wins!
6!
0!"!10!
0!"!60!
V#%)/'!
L6!
T!N!2T!
T!N!L6T!
!
Table!2:!!Approach:!multiplication!of!general!weights!with!individual!scales!
!
!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
12!Weights!multiply!with!the!minimum/maximum!values!of!the!scales.!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"!12!"!!
!
G!!!:;)R(/&
The!following!example!is!completely!fictitious!and!is!simply!presented!to!illustrate!how!
ASTERIG!could!be!used!to!assess! the!risk!potential!of!a!gambling!product.! Assume! that!
there!is!a!game,!which! we!will!call!bet$for$soccer* from!the! also!fictitious!provider!bets$
limited.!!
!
In!our!example,!bet$for$soccer!has!the!following!attributes:!
! In!this!fictitious!national!league!there!are!24!teams!that!play!in!12!matches!in!
different!cities!on!each!Saturday.!!
! Betting!on!all!games!is!allowed.!
! For!each!match,!it!is!allowed!to!bet!that:!(a)!team!A!will!win,!(b)!team!B!will!win!
(c)!there!will!be!a!tie.!It!is!possible!to!bet!all!three!outcomes!at!the!same!time.!
In!theory!the!probability!of!each!outcome!is!1/3!=!0.33!=!33.33%.!But!in!sports"
betting!there!are!always!quotes!which!depend!on!the!voting!of!all!the!players!
(gamblers)!who!bet!on!that!particular!game.!For!example.!50%!of!all!gamblers!
could!bet!for!(a)!that!team!A!wins,!25%!for!(b),!that!team!B!wins,!and!25%!for!(c),!
there!is!a!tie.!The!quotes!could!theoretically!range!between!0%!and!100%,!e.g.!
when!all!gamblers!would!bet!for!(a)!the!advantage!of!team!A!and!nobody!for!the!
alternatives!(b)!and!(c).!
! The!chance!of!winning!a!profit!and!the!amount!of!a!possible!profit!depend!on!the!
quotes.!If!e.g.!50%!of!all!players!bet!that!(a)!team!A!wins,!25%!that!(b)!team!B!
wins!and!25%!that!(c)!there!is!a!tie,!the!quotes!would!be!distributed!"!after!a!10%!
margin!for!the!provider!"!as!follows:!1.8!if!team!A!wins,!3.6!if!team!B!wins!and!3.6!
there!is!a!tie.!The!profits!would!also!be!distributed!in!the!equivalent!relations.!If!
team!A!wins!those!players!(gamblers)!who!bet!on!this!result!will!get!$1.8!for!each!
$!they!bet.!If!the!other!two!alternatives!are!realized,!those!gamblers!would!get!
$3.6!for!each!$!bet.!
! The!minimum!stake!is!$1.!The!maximum!allowed!stake!is!$100!per!each!match.!
So!the!maximum!win!would!be!$100!x!90!(100%!quote!minus!10%!margin!for!the!
provider)!=!$9.000!for!each!match.!If!the!gambler!bets!on!each!of!the!12!games,!
the!maximum!stake!by!this!individual!could!be!a!total!of!$1.200!per!week.!The!
maximum!win!could!be!$9.000!x!12!matches!=!$108.000!per!week.!
! There!is!no!jackpot.!
! On!the!webpage!of!the!provider!only!visual!effects!exist.!There!are!no!auditory!
effects.!Also!all!other!marketing!activities!use!only!visual!activities.!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"!13!"!!
!
!
Based!on!the!description!of!the!fictitious!game*bet$for*soccer!determines!the!following!
scores!would!be!assigned:!
2C :D&$%!-1&E0&$59!
!
Unit!of!time!between!stake,!gambling!result!and!next!stake!opportunity:!>!6!days,!
because!the!matches!run!only!every!Saturday.!Even!considering!that!it!is!possible!to!bet!
on!all!12!matches!every!week,!it!should!be!assumed!that!all!12!stakes!would!be!done!
once!a!week!in!less!than!one!day.!!!
!
"!!=5#1&W!T!
!
!
!
6C 3$%&1D)/!#-!()9.)5F!
Period!of!time!between!gambling!result!and!notification!of!payment!or!actual!receipt!of!
payment:!!≤!5!sec,!because!the!bets!are!run!online!and!the!gambling!result!and!
notification!of!payment!is!given!just!in!time!after!the!soccer!match!finishes.!
!
"!!=5#1&W!2T!
!
!
!
GC H)5F(#%!
An!extraordinary!top!prize!typically!in!the!form!of!a!large!amount!of!money!formed!by!
the!accumulation!of!previous!bets:!!There!is!no!jackpot.!
!
"!!=5#1&W!T!
!
!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"!14!"!!
!
!
IC "#$%,$0,%9!#-!(/)9,$*!
There!are!maximum!12!possibilities!(=!matches)!per!week,!per!gambling!without!an!
interruption.!If!we!assume!that!all!12!possibilities!are!used!and!that!all!betting!are!done!
in!one!term!(without!any!interruption)!and!one!betting!needs!in!average!approximately!
5!minutes!for!each!match!the!period!of!time!during!which!it!is!possible!to!gamble!
without!interruption!is!maybe!maximum!5min!x!12!=!60!min!=!1!hour.!!
!
"!!=5#1&W!J!
!
!
!
JC "8)$5&!#-!K,$$,$*!)!(1#-,%!
!
The!probability!of! realizing!a! profit! with!each! game!is!on! average!33.33%!and! in!many!
occasions!>!25%.!
!
"!!=5#1&W!2T!
!
!
LC >D),/).,/,%9!
“Bet-for soccer” is accessed online.!Gambling!opportunities!are!generally!at!home!or!at!
the!workplace.!
!
"!!=5#1&W!2T!
!
MC 70/%,(/&!(/)9,$*NO'%)F&!#((#1%0$,%,&'!
There!are!multiple!playing!opportunities!(i.e.,!betting!on!some!or!all!12!matches)!at!the!
same!time!(per!week)!per!player!(gambler)!and!by!using!one!userID.!There!exist!multiple!
(=!12)!stake!opportunities!as!well.!
!
"!!=5#1&W!2T!
!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"!15!"!!
!
!
PC Q)1,)./&!'%)F&!)R#0$%!
The!stake!that!gamblers!can!choose!is!variable.!The!stake!amount!is!limited!between!$1!
(minimum)!and!$100!per!each!match.!In!total!–!by!betting!on!all!12!matches!–!between!$12!and!
$1.200!per!week.
"!!=5#1&W!J!
!
!
SC =&$'#19!(1#405%!4&',*$!
Visual!effects!exist.!Auditory!effects!non"exist.!!
!
"!!=5#1&W!J!
!
!
2TC @&)1!K,$'!!
A!gambler!could!suppose!to!almost!win!(to!miss!the!profit!narrowly;!a!near!win).!But!in!
this!case!it!is!un"intentionally!created!by!the!supplier/producer.!It!occurs!by!chance.!!
!
"!!=5#1&W!J!
!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"!16!"!!
!
U,'F!(#%&$%,)/!51,%&1,)!
K&,*8%'!
X-,;Y!
'5#1&!!
XTZ2TY2G!
&;)R(/&2I!
Event!frequency!
8!
0!
0!
Interval!of!payback!
6!
10!
60!
Jackpot!
5!
0!
0!
Continuity!of!playing!
8!
5!
40!
Chance!of!winning!a!profit!
6!
10!
60!
Availability!
7!
10!
70!
Multiple!playing"/stake!
opportunities!
6!
10!
60!
Variable!stake!amount!
6!
5!
30!
Sensory!product!design!
4!
5!
20!
Near!wins!
6!
5!
30!
V#%)/'!
L6!
N!
GMT!
Table!3:!!Approach:!multiplication!of!general!weights!with!individual!scales!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!of!the!fictitious!sport!betting!game!bet$for$soccer!
In!Figure!1!the!corresponding!radar!chart!is!shown.!It!illustrates!the!dimension!and!form!
of! the! expanse! within! the! graphic! product"profile.! Amplitudes! of! certain! dimensions!
become! apparent.15!Figure! 2! shows! the! structure! of! the! responsibilities,! which!
dimensions!account! for! the! risk! potential! of! addiction!in! that! specific! case,!and! which!
dimensions!do!not!appear!to!contribute!to!this!risk!potential.!In!this!example!it!becomes!
apparent!that!in! particular! the!dimensions!“Interval!of! payback”,!“Chance!of!winning! a!
profit”,!“Availability”! as!well! as! “Multiple!playing! and!stake! opportunities”!seem! to! be!
important! referring! to! risk! potential! of! addiction.! On! the! other! hand! the! “Event!
frequency”!does!not!seem!to!initialize!any!risk!potential!at!all.!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
13!These!points!correspond!to!the!arithmetic!mean!of!the!individual!ratings!awarded!by!the!team!of!
experts!which!would!be!involved!to!evaluate!the!risk!potential!of!the!gambling!product!bet$for$soccer,!
which!is!here!fictitiously!assumed.!!
14!Weights!multiply!with!the!scale!in!the!concrete!case.!
15!In!a!radar!or!spider!chart,!the!values!of!the!individual!categories!are!displayed!along!one!axis!starting!at!
the!center!of!the!chart!and!ending!on!the!outer!ring.!This!clarifies!the!variations!of!certain!criteria.!!
!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"!17!"!!
!
Product(profile(
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Event.frequency
Jac kpot
Continuity.of.pla yi ng
Chanc e.of.winni ng
Ava i l a bi l i ty
Interval.pf.payback
Multi pl e.playi ngD/stake
opportunities
Near .wi ns
Vari a bl e.s ta ke.amount
Sensory.product.design
!
!
Figure!1:!!Radar!chart!showing!the!risk!potential!of!the!fictitious!sport!betting!game!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!bet$for$soccer!
!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"!18!"!!
!
010 20 30 40 50 60 70
Event.frequency
Jac kpot
Continuity.of.playi ng
Chance.of.winning
Ava i l a bi l i ty
Interval.pf.payback
Multipl e.playi ngD/s take.opportunities
Near.wi ns
Vari ab l e.s take.a mount
Sensory.product.design
Product(profile
!
Figure!2:!!!Bar!chart!showing!the!risk!potential!of!the!fictitious!sport!betting!game!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!bet$for$soccer!
To! analyse! the! dimensions! in! greater! detail! and! compare! them! with! each! other,! it! is!
useful!to!create!a!bar!diagram!in!addition!to!the!spider!chart!(Figure!2).!!
!
In!total,!the!risk!potential!of!potential!of!the!fictitious!sport!betting!game!bet$for$soccer!
is!rated!with!a!score!of!approximately!5.97,!resulting!by!dividing!the!total!score!(370)!by!
62!(Table!2).!
!
If!we!classify!the!total!points!into!five!categories!of! equal! amplitude!for!example16,!the!
results!can!be!seen!to!map!five!categories!of!risk!as!shown!in!table!4.!The!risk!potential!
of!the!fictitious!sport!betting!game!bet$for$soccer!can!thus!be!classified! as! moderate!in!
tendency!to!high.!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
16!Alternatively!it!would!be!possible!to!develop!the!classification!heterogeneous!by!dint!of!a!cluster!
analysis!that!changes!maybe!in!the!course!of!time.!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"!19!"!!
!
U&'0/%!
=5#1&!
U,'F!5)%&*#19!
U,'F!(#%&$%,)/!
1!"!124!
>!0!!"!!≤!2!
A!
lowest!
125!"!248!
>!2!!"!!≤!4!
B!
low!
249!–!372!
>!4!!"!≤!6!
C!
moderate!
373!"!496!
>!6!!"!!≤!8!
D!
high!
497!"!620!
>!8!!"!!≤!10!
E!
highest!
Table!4:!!!!Risk!potential!classification!of!gambling!products*
!
!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"!20!"!!
!
IC!!!"#$5/0',#$!)$4!-0%01&!4,1&5%,#$'!
The!present!Assessment!Tool!to!Measure!and!Evaluate!the!Risk!Potential!of!Gambling!Products!
(ASTERIG)! measures! the! possible! dimensions! of! risk! potential! of! gambling! products! on!
the! basis! of! numeric! scores.! In! doing! so,! it! also! allows! a! comparison! to! be! drawn!
between!the!addiction!potentials!of!different!gambling!products.!Furthermore,!the!tool!
highlights!where!the!specific!risk!potential!of!each!specific!gambling!product!lie.!!
!
An! indication! of! the! classification! of! the! risk! potential! of! gambling! products! could! be!
placed! on! vouchers,! in! gambling! locations! or! in! the! computer! screen! when! an! online!
game!is!started,!for!example.!A!visual!display!that!shows!the!risk!potential!when!starting!
to! use! a! gambling! product! could! help! an! individual! visualize! the! possible! risk! for!
becoming! addicted.! Furthermore! the! individual! would! be! able! to! assess! the! risk!
potential!of!different!gambling!products!and!to!compare!their!risk!potentials!with!each!
other.!ASTERIG!could!not!only!be!used!for!existing!gambling!products,!also!new!ones!can!
be!assessed!concerning!their!risk!potential.17!
!
In!summary,!although!gambling!is!a!popular!pastime!that!brings! joy! and!entertainment!
to!many!adults,!it! is!associated!with!risk! for! the!development!of!maladaptive! gambling!
behaviors,! and! this! risk! may! depend,! at! least! in! part,! on! the! characteristics! of! the!
gambling!product.! The! gambling!product! is! only!one! aspect!contributing! to! the!risk! of!
gambling! disorders! in! the! context! of! a! complex! interaction! and! a! bio"psycho"social!
context.! We! hope! that! the! development! of! ASTERIG! may! help! provide! a! systematic,!
objective! way! to! assess! this! risk! potential! of! gambling! products! and! contribute! to!
develop!policies!that!balance!access!to!gambling!for!entertainment!with!minimizing!the!
risk!of!gambling!disorders.!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
17!Cp.!Peren!(2011)!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"!21!"!!
!
!
J!!!!U&-&1&$5&'!
Clement,!R.,!Goudriaan,!A.E.,!Holst,!R.J.,!Molinaro,!S.,!Moersen,!C.,!Nilsson,!T.,!Parke,!A.,!
Peren,!F.W.,!Rebeggiani,!L.,!Stoever,!H.,!Terlau,!W.,!Wilhelm,!M.!(2012):!Measuring!
and!Evaluating!the!Potential!Addiction!Risk!of!the!Online!Poker!Game!Texas!
Hold'em!No!Limit.!In:!Gaming!Law!Review!and!Economics.!Volume:!16!Issue!12.!!
Clement,!R.,!Peren,!F.W.!(1998):!Globale!Standortanalyse,!in:!Harvard!Business!
Manager,!6,!1998,!S.!70!–!77;!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peren%E2%80%93Clement_Index!!
[viewed!2013"03"17].!!
GamGARD!"!Gaming!Assessment!Measure!–!Guidance!about!Responsible!Design;!
http://www.gamgard.com![viewed!2013"03"17].!
Linstone,!H.A.,!Turoff,!M.!(1975):!The!Delphi!Method:!Techniques!and!Applications,!
Reading,!Mass.:!Addison"Wesley.!http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method!
[viewed!2013"03"17].!
Peren,!F.W.!(2009):!Assessment!Tool!to!measure!and!Evaluate!the!Risk!potential!of!
Gambling!products!–!ASTERIG.!Presentation!at!the!Social!Responsibility!Seminar!of!
the!EL!European!Lotteries!Association,!Barcelona.!
Peren,!F.W.!(2011):!Assessment!Tool!to!Measure!and!Evaluate!the!Risk!Potential!of!
Gambling!Products:!ASTERIG,!in:!The!Journal!of!Gambling!Business!and!Economics,!
2011,!Vol.!5,!No.!2,!pp!54"66.!!
Product!Evaluation!Method!for!Reducing!Potential!Hazards!(Finland);!
http://www.veikkaus.fi![viewed!2013"03"17].!
Playscan!(Sweden);!http://www.spelinstitutet.se![viewed!2013"03"17].!