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Diane Stephenson1, Theresa Mullin2,Eric Bastings2, Billy Dunn2, Susanne Goldstein2,Gerald Podskalny2
1Critical PathInstitute, Tucson, AZ;2U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), SilverSpring,MD
Net Treatment Effect by Drug
Interaction of Age and Severity
.Background and Objectives Time Trend Analysis
Disclaimer: The views and opinions presented here represent those of the authors and should not be considered to represent advice or guidance on behalf of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
Antidepressants are currently a standard treatment for major depressive
disorder, supported by comparisons to placebo treatment under blinded
conditions in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Fifteen years following the
advent of several new antidepressants in the mid‐1980s, it became evident
that the “success” rate of antidepressant clinical trials was low; less than 50%
of trials demonstrated statistical superiority for antidepressants over placebo.
Following several findings of a rising placebo response, it was assumed that
the clinical trial failure rate was related to this phenomena. Furthermore,
limited analysis exists regarding changes in antidepressant effect over time.
Objective:
•The aim of this exploratory analysis is to longitudinally describe changes in
placebo and treatment response. Impact on response by baseline
predictors such as baseline depression severity, gender, and age will also
be evaluated.
Components and Trends in Treatment Effects in Randomized
Placebo-controlled Trials in Major Depressive Disorder from 1979-2016
Methods
Marc Stone1, Shamir Kalaria2, Kyle Richardville3, Brian Miller4
1Division of Psychiatry Products, Office of New Drugs, CDER, US Food and Drug Administration
2University of Maryland School of Pharmacy 3University of North Carolina School of Medicine 4Georgetown University School of Medicine
Study Population:
•The Division of Psychiatry Products at FDA has constructed a database of
all randomized placebo-controlled trials of antidepressants in the
treatment of Major Depressive Disorder submitted between 1979 and
2016.
•228 studies were included in the analysis with a total of 22 different
antidepressants and 73,178 patients
MDD Severity Equivalents and Score Conversion:
Impact of Patient Characteristics on Effect
Conclusion and Potential Considerations
33.7%
Placebo
(N=24,661) 66.3%
Anti-
Depressant
(N=48,517)
Figure 1: Pooled distribution of
patients from selected
randomized controlled trials
24.5
16.2
13.8
22.2
13.9
12.3
15
20
25
10
MDD Severity
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
year
Placebo Drug Baseline Severity
Scaled to HAMD17
Baseline Severity and Treatment Effects over Time
Figure 2: Change in Baseline
Severity, Placebo Effect and
Treatment Effect over Time
-7
-8
-9
-10
Change in MDD Severity (scaled to HAMD17)
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
age
Male Placebo Male Drug
Female Placebo Female Drug
Treatment Effect by Age and Sex
-5
-10
0
-15
Change in MDD Severity
10 20 30 40
Baseline MDD Severity
Placebo Drug
Scaled to HAMD17
Treatment Effect and Baseline Severity
-1.79 (-2.02, -1.55)
-2.89 (-3.61, -2.17)
-1.58 (-2.69, -0.48)
-2.08 (-2.51, -1.65)
-1.62 (-2.00, -1.25)
-1.79 (-2.25, -1.33)
-1.69 (-1.98, -1.40)
-1.95 (-2.62, -1.28)
-1.49 (-1.86, -1.11)
-0.79 (-1.55, -0.03)
-0.92 (-2.55, 0.71)
-1.94 (-2.28, -1.60)
-1.52 (-1.97, -1.06)
-1.51 (-1.89, -1.14)
-1.76 (-2.23, -1.29)
-2.01 (-2.61, -1.42)
-1.23 (-1.72, -0.75)
ES (95% CI)
-0.77 (-2.56, 1.02)
-1.87 (-2.22, -1.51)
-0.80 (-1.35, -0.25)
-2.13 (-2.46, -1.80)
-3.00 (-3.32, -2.68)
-3.30 (-4.77, -1.83)
-1.79 (-2.02, -1.55)
-2.89 (-3.61, -2.17)
-1.58 (-2.69, -0.48)
-2.08 (-2.51, -1.65)
-1.62 (-2.00, -1.25)
-1.79 (-2.25, -1.33)
-1.69 (-1.98, -1.40)
-1.95 (-2.62, -1.28)
-1.49 (-1.86, -1.11)
-0.79 (-1.55, -0.03)
-0.92 (-2.55, 0.71)
-1.94 (-2.28, -1.60)
-1.52 (-1.97, -1.06)
-1.51 (-1.89, -1.14)
-1.76 (-2.23, -1.29)
-2.01 (-2.61, -1.42)
-1.23 (-1.72, -0.75)
ES (95% CI)
-0.77 (-2.56, 1.02)
-1.87 (-2.22, -1.51)
-0.80 (-1.35, -0.25)
-2.13 (-2.46, -1.80)
-3.00 (-3.32, -2.68)
-3.30 (-4.77, -1.83)
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0
Net Change in MDD Severity over Placebo (Scaled to HAMD17)
Adjusted for Age, Sex and Baseline Severity
Net Treatment Effect by Drug
Figure 3: Changes in Placebo and
Treatment Effect by Age and Sex
Figure 4: Influence of Baseline
Severity on Response
15
20
25
30
Baseline MDD Severity
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
age
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
Change in Severity
Scaled to HAMD17
Response to Placebo by Age and Baseline Severity
15
20
25
30
Baseline MDD Severity
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
age
-15
-10
-5
0
Change in Severity
Scaled to HAMD17
Response to Drug by Age and Baseline Severity
15
20
25
30
Baseline MDD Severity
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
age
-3
-2
-1
0
Difference between Drug and Placebo
Scaled to HAMD17
Net Drug Effect over Placebo by Age and Baseline Severity
-5 50-10-15-20-25 Treatment Effect
placebo drug
Scaled to HAMD17
Distribution of Treatment Outcomes in MDD
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
.5
Proportion of Subjetcs
0-3-6-9-12-15-18-21-24 3 6
Threshold for Change in MDD Severity (Scaled to HAMD17)
Placebo Drug
Cumulative Distribution
Treatment Effect on MDD Severity
Baseline severity averaged the
equivalent of 23.0 points on
the HAMD17 scale but has
declined by 2.3 points from
1979-2016. Placebo response
showed little change over time
averaging 8.3 points. Net drug
effect over placebo controlled
for age and baseline severity
has averaged 1.8 points but has
declined from 2.4 points to 1.6
points
Women appeared to have a
greater net effect from active
treatment, perhaps due to a
larger average dosage relative
to weight. Placebo response
diminished with increasing age
and observed response with
active treatment was less in
older subjects. The greatest
improvement relative to
placebo was in subjects aged
35 to 60
Treatment response was
influenced by baseline severity,
with an average equivalent
improvement of 2.4 points in
subjects with a baseline
severity of 30 points and 1.1
points in subjects with baseline
severity of 17 points.
Both drug and placebo responses showed evidence
of bimodal distribution with a majority of patients
suggesting an improvement in scaled HAMD17
scores. Significant overlap between distributions
indication reduced net drug effect.
Approximately, 50% of drug subjects and
40% of placebo subjects showing
improvements of nine points or more. 50%
of subjects on placebo showed an
improvement of 6 points or more. This
indicates median drug treatment effect of
3 points.
Figure 7: Influence of Age and Baseline Severity
on Placebo Response
Figure 8: Influence of Age and Baseline Severity
on Drug Response
Figure 8: Influence of Age and Baseline Severity
on Net Drug Effect
Figure 5: Distribution of placebo and drug
response in Scaled HAMD17 scores
Figure 6: Distribution of placebo and drug
response in Scaled HAMD17 scores
Scale
Random Effects Mean Severity
Within
-Study Standard Deviation
HAMD17
23.0 3.7
BPI
4.7 1.6
CDRS
59.3 9.9
COGNI
22.9 7.0
HAMD21
26.1 4.1
HAMD24
30.2 5.1
HAMD28
31.1 5.1
HAMDP
52.6 20.7
IDS
46.0 9.2
MADRS
30.7 4.4
Statistical Analysis
•Multivariate mixed effects regression model was used to predict drug
response, placebo response, and net drug effect
•Baseline score, treatment group, gender, gender-treatment interaction,
age, and age-treatment interaction were used as covariates to predict
response
On average, a net drug effect of 2 points in MDD severity over placebo was observed across 22 different antidepressants
after adjusting for age, sex, and baseline severity. Differences among drugs were modest but statistically significant,
possibly due to differences in trial characteristics
•Patients with a higher baseline severity were found to have a larger
placebo and drug response
•Net drug effect was highest in patients 35-60 years old
•Female patients experienced greater drug response than males
•Potential predictors of placebo and drug response can assist in informing
future clinical trials for MDD