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GerritKurtz
21July2017
Withconflictcausingmuchpoliticalinstabilityandhumansufferinginpartsoftheworld,
thereisaneedforpreventivediplomacywhichstopstheoutbreak,relapseorescalationof
organizedviolence.Frontlinediplomatshavepotentiallycrucialrolestoplayinearly
preventiveefforts.
Conflictpreventionispopularininternationalpoliticalcirclesthesedays.InApril2016,theUN
SecurityCouncilandGeneralAssemblypassedconcurringresolutionsonthereviewoftheUN
peacebuildingarchitectureinwhichtheyconfirmedtheessentialroleoftheUNin“preventingthe
outbreak,escalation,continuationandrecurrenceofconflict”.On5July,theGermanFederal
ForeignOfficelaunchedapublicoutreachprocessforthedevelopmentofnewguidelineson
civiliancrisisprevention,anareaforwhichitincreaseditsfundsby260%from2015to2016to
248.5million€.Lastyear,theBritishgovernmentannouncedplanstoincreaseitsConflict,
StabilityandSecurityFundfrom1to1.3billionpoundsby2019/20.
Thepoliticalreasoningbehindthecallforpreventionissimple:iftheescalationofpolitical
disputesintoorganizedviolenceorevenoutrightcivilwarcanbestoppedinitstracks,itnotonly
saveslives,butalsokeepsrefugeeflowscreatedbywaratbayandhelpsleadersavoidmaking
difficultandpotentiallyunpopulardecisionsaboutwhethertolaunchmilitaryinterventionsto
quellconflicts.Despitewhatseemedlikealong-termdeclineoforganizedviolence,thenumber
ofarmedconflictshastickedupagaininthepastfewyears:2014saw40armedconflicts,the
highestnumbersince1999,and126,059conflict-relatedfatalities,thehighestnumbersince
1994,accordingtotheUppsalaConflictDataProgram.Attheendof2015,65.3million
peoplewereeitherinternallydisplacedorinternationalrefugees,thehighestnumbersincethe
SecondWorldWar.YetmanyUNmemberstatestendtoviewconflictpreventionwithsuspicion,
astheyfearinternationalmeddlinginwhattheyperceivetobetheirdomesticpoliticalaffairs.
Puttinghigh-flyinginternationalcommitmentstoconflictpreventionintopracticeand“sustaining
peace”throughouttheconflictcycle,astheSCandGAaffirmedintheirparallelresolutions,
requiresanastutehandlingofsensitivematterswithintelligenceandtact,prudenceand
patience.Inshort:diplomacy.Whilegovernmentministriescan,ofcourse,reachouttotheir
foreigncounterpartsdirectlyandpermanentrepresentativesnegotiatemandatesfor
internationalorganisationsinNewYorkorGeneva,frontlinediplomats,i.e.membersofthe
foreignservicepostedabroad,havepotentiallycrucialrolestoplayinearlypreventiveefforts.
Preventivediplomacyaimsattheshort-tomedium-termpreventionoftheoutbreak,relapseor
escalationoforganizedviolence,throughbothcoerciveandnon-coercivemeansservinga
politicalpurpose.Takingpreventivediplomacyseriouslyrequiresadifferent,moreactiveand
principledkindofdiplomacy.Inordertodoadjusttothisprofile,frontlinediplomatsneedtobe
betterequipped,trained,andorganisationallyempowered.
Frontlinepreventivediplomacy:benefitsandrisks
ImageviaU.S.ArmyviaFlickr.
Frontlinediplomatsmaybeabletoresorttothematicexpertise,fundsorinternationalnetworks
thattheycanemploytotweakpoliticaldynamicsinacountry.Assomediplomatsarerepeatedly
postedtoconflictregions,theymaydrawcomparativeconclusionsandshowdomesticparties
theriskytrajectoriesoftheiractions.Anddiplomatsare,theoreticallyatleast,trainedinthevery
skillsoffacilitation,brokeringandnegotiationthatmightbeneededtocooldownheated
tensions.
AstheInternationalCrisisGrouplaysoutinanexcellentrecentreport,preventivediplomacyis
fraughtwithdilemmasandconsiderablechallenges.Usually,theelitesinagivencountrycarry
themainresponsibilityfortheescalationofpoliticalconflicts,andevenhigh-levelofficialsof
majorpowershavelimitedentrypointswhenpositionshavebecomedeeplypolarizedandparties
areentrenchedinazero-sumlogic.AstheCrisisGroupsuccinctlyobserves:“Outsidersmust
treadcarefullywhenpursuingthesegoals.Allearlyactioninvolvesengaginginfluidpolitical
environments.Thereisahighchanceofpoliticalfriction,withmisunderstandingsand
miscalculationsderailingplans.Noformofcrisisresponseisneutral.”
Frontlinediplomatsmaygrantinsurgentgroupsunwarrantedlegitimacysimplybymeetingthem.
Officiallymediatingbetweenpartiesmayraiseexpectationsaboutpeacefulconflictresolution,
that,whendisappointed,mayemboldendomesticactorstopursuetheirgoalsbyviolentmeans.
Short-termgoalsofstabilizationmayconflictwithlong-termgoalsofdemocratisationand
transitionaljustice.Thus,preventiveengagementsmustbebasedoncontinuingpoliticalanalysis
anddo-no-harmprinciples.
Adifferentdiplomacy
Morefundamentally,anactivepursuitofconflictpreventionrequiresadifferentkindof
diplomacy.Conventionally,diplomatspursueanarrowlyconceived“nationalinterest”,actingon
explicitinstructionsfromthecapital.Theyconcentrateonthegoverningauthoritiesasofficial
partnersintheirbilateralrelations.Asaresult,theirengagementisreactiveandadhoc,while
preventivediplomacyrequiresaforward-lookingandprincipledapproach,asDavidHamburg
alreadywrotein2003.
“Iamnotthepersonwhositsalldayattheoffice.Iwanttoseehowpeopleliveoutthere,”ishow
GermanAmbassadortoSouthAfricaWalterLindnerintroduceshimselfinavideomessageon
theembassy’swebsite.Itsumsupthekindofspiritdiplomatsneedtoembracearetheyto
furthertheambitiousobjectiveofconflictprevention.ChristopherJ.Stevens,theUSAmbassador
toLibyamurderedin2012,representedtheskillsofa“guerrilladiplomat”(DarylCopeland):
multilingual,frequentlyspeakingtopeopleonthestreet,andshowingrespectandcompassion
forlocalcultures,traitswhichPresidentObamahighlightedinhisspeechattheUNGeneral
DebateinSeptember2012.
Yetthesediplomatsareusuallyseenas“unconventional”.Ifgovernmentswanttotaketheir
statedobjectiveofcrisispreventionseriously,theyneedtoembracethefollowingpoliciesthat
supportandempowertheiragentsinthefield.Politicalleadersandseniorofficialsneedtofoster
anorganisationalculturethatgrantsambassadorsandotherfrontlinediplomatsmoreautonomy,
basedonfrequentreportingontheiractivities.Leadersneedtohighlightboldbehaviour,even
whendiplomatsencounterhostilityfromhostgovernmentsdespitetheirmostsensitiveefforts;
rewardingbestpracticescanstarthorizontalsocializationprocesses.Ministriesneedtoprovide
frontlinediplomatswiththeauthoritytoquicklydispersesmalldevelopmentfundsandinclude
themininternaldiscussionsongovernment-widecountrystrategies.
Lastly,theyneedtooffertrainingtotheirdiplomatsinconflictanalysis,mediationandcritical
thinking.TheGermanFederalForeignOffice,forexample,onlystartedtoprovidededicated
mediationcoursestoitsattachésandmoreseniordiplomatsafewweeksago.Similarly,arecent
reformreportoftheBritishForeignandCommonwealthOfficearguedtoincreasetrainingin
stabilisationandmediationascoreskillsfordiplomatspostedtofragileareas.Manyintra-state
conflictsarebasedondisputeswithinacountry’spoliticalelite;foreigndiplomatstrainedin
peacemediationmaybeabletofacilitateconversationsbetweenpolarizedparties.Asexternal
thirdparties,theymayhelplocalstakeholderstoidentifymutuallyacceptablewaysthatleadout
oftheirconflicts.
Conclusion
Historically,Westernbiasesandwilfulignoranceofdomesticpoliticsandcultureshave
marredinternationalengagementinconflictpreventionandresolution.Ahealthydoseof
scepticismtowardsarenewedpushforpreventivediplomacyisthereforewarranted.Diplomats
needtoovercomearigidbinaryoflocalstakeholderswhoseactionsneedtobepreventedand
internationalactorswhoconductpreventivediplomacy.
Ifforeignservicesembraceabolder,innovativestyleof(preventive)diplomacythatrewardslocal
sensitivity,autonomyandinnovation,however,theymayimprovetheimplementationoftheir
foreignpolicyoverall.Frontlinediplomatsneedtotravelintheirhostcountryextensively,
collectinginformationaboutlocalgrievancesthroughfirst-handobservation.Theyneedtoreach
outtothehostpopulationdirectly,throughpersonaluseofsocialmedia,asmanyBritish
diplomatsalreadydo.Andtheyneedtomaintainreliablerelationshipswithkeypoliticalactors
thatcontinuetofunctionincrisissituations.Ifdiplomatsdothat,theywillfindthatanincreased
attentiontowardsconflictpreventionentailsbenefits–adeeperunderstandingofelitepolitics,
influencebeyondthecapitalandcredibilitywithabroadspectrumofacountry’ssociety–that
continuetoexistwhenacrisisends.
GerritKurtzisapostgraduateresearchstudentattheWarStudiesDepartmentofKing’s
CollegeLondon,whereheresearchestheroleoffrontlinediplomatsinconflictprevention.He
isalsoanon-residentfellowwiththeGlobalPublicPolicyInstituteinBerlin,whereheworked
between2012and2015onthepoliciesofemergingpowersonaresponsibilitytoprotect
populationsfrommassatrocitycrimes.HealsoconductedresearchinSouthSudanonlocal
conflictmanagementbyUNpeaceoperations.Asidefrompreventivediplomacy,conflict
managementandpeacekeeping,hisresearchinterestsincludeprotectionofcivilians,
transitionaljusticeintheconflictinSriLanka,theconflictinSouthSudan,aswellasGerman
andIndianforeignpolicy.
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