Job creation during the global energy transition towards 100% renewable power system by 2050

Abstract

Aside from reducing the energy sector’s negative impacts on the environment, renewable power generation technologies are creating new wealth and becoming important job creators for the 21st century. Employment creation over the duration of the global energy transition is an important aspect to explore, which could have policy ramifications around the world. This research focuses on the employment impact of an accelerated uptake of renewable electricity generation that sees the world derive 100% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2050, in order to meet the goals set by the Paris Agreement. An analytical job creation assessment for the global power sector from 2015 to 2050 is estimated and presented on a regional basis. It is found that the global direct jobs associated with the electricity sector increases from about 21 million in 2015 to nearly 35 million in 2050. Solar PV, batteries and wind power are the major job creating technologies during the energy transition from 2015 to 2050. This is the first global study presenting job creation projections for energy storage. The results indicate that a global energy transition will have an overall positive impact on the future stability and growth of economies around the world.

Full text

Title: Job creation during the global energy transition towards 100% renewable power system by
2050
Authors: Manish Ram*, Arman Aghahosseini, Christian Breyer
LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland
*Corresponding Author.
Full name: Manish Ram
Affiliation: LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland
Tel (Mobile): +358 40 8171944
Fax: +358 5 621 2350
E-mail address: manish.ram@lut.fi
Second Author:
Full name: Arman Aghahosseini
Affiliation: LUT University, Ylipistonkatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland
Tel: +358 294 462 111
Fax: +358 5 621 2350
Email: arman.aghahosseini@lut.fi
Third (Last) Author:
Full name: Christian Breyer
Affiliation: LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland
Tel: +358 294 462 111
Fax: +358 5 621 2350
Email: christian.breyer@lut.fi

Job creation during the global energy transition towards 100% renewable power system by 2050
Manish Ram*, Arman Aghahosseini, Christian Breyer
LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland
*Corresponding Author. E-mail address: manish.ram@lut.fi
Abstract
Aside from reducing the energy sector’s negative impacts on the environment, renewable power generation
technologies are creating new wealth and becoming important job creators for the 21st century.
Employment creation over the duration of the global energy transition is an important aspect to explore,
which could have policy ramifications around the world. This research focuses on the employment impact
of an accelerated uptake of renewable electricity generation that sees the world derive 100% of its electricity
from renewable sources by 2050, in order to meet the goals set by the Paris Agreement. An analytical job
creation assessment for the global power sector from 2015 to 2050 is estimated and presented on a regional
basis. It is found that the global direct jobs associated with the electricity sector increases from about 21
million in 2015 to nearly 35 million in 2050. Solar PV, batteries and wind power are the major job creating
technologies during the energy transition from 2015 to 2050. This is the first global study presenting job
creation projections for energy storage. The results indicate that a global energy transition will have an
overall positive impact on the future stability and growth of economies around the world.
Keywords
Jobs, Employment, Renewable Energy, Energy Storage, Energy Transition
Abbreviations
A-CAES Adiabatic Compressed Air Energy Storage
BNEF Bloomberg New Energy Finance
BPS Best Policies Scenario
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbine
CPS Current Policies Scenario
CSP Concentrated Solar Thermal Power
EU European Union
FLH Full Load Hours
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GHG Greenhouse Gases
GW Gigawatt
IEA International Energy Agency
IMF International Monetary Fund
IPCC International Panel on Climate Change
ILO International Labour Organization
IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency
LCOE Levelised Cost of Electricity
MW Megawatt

OCGT Open Cycle Gas Turbine
OPEX Operational Expenditures
PtG Power-to-Gas
PtH Power-to-Heat
PV Photovoltaics
TW Terawatt
USD United States Dollar
1. Introduction
The risks and impacts posed by devastating socioeconomic consequences of climate inaction have been
conspicuously stressed in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th and 5th assessment reports
(IPCC, 2007, 2014a) as well as the Stern review (Stern, 2007). In this regard, the Paris Agreement,
negotiated at the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) in 2015 (UNFCCC, 2015), has set an important
foundation on which the global community can build a sustainable future. With electricity generation
accounting for around 25% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, reducing emissions in this sector
is a critical component in the transition towards a low carbon development pathway (IPCC, 2014b). A
global energy transition is well underway with nearly 160 GW of renewables (without considering large
hydropower) been added in 2017, of which 98 GW was solar and 53 GW wind power (Frankfurt School -
UNEP & BNEF, 2018; GWEC, 2018). In addition, tumbling technology costs have propelled investments
in renewable energy power generation and from a levelised cost of energy (LCOE) outlook, renewables
have become a more attractive investment proposition than fossil fuels in many countries around the world
(Ram et al., 2017a; Ram et al., 2018). The effects of the new energy system would not be restricted to
energy production only, but would have consequences for the whole society (Breyer, etal., 2017a).
Energy use is either the cause or the facilitator of economic growth. Moreover, sufficient evidence over the
years point to the positive correlation between energy use, economic growth and employment (CDC &
ODI, 2016). As the global energy system is a major economic sector with a share of around 8% in global
gross domestic product (GDP) (IER, 2010), the prospects for investment and employment in the sector are
significant to economies around the world. The physical implications of a shift towards greater shares of
renewable electricity such as additional generation capacities, investment needs and reduction in GHG
emissions have been explored for a range of scenarios in many countries as well as globally, as enlisted and
analysed in Child et al. (2018). However, employment associated with the electricity sector and the impact
of an accelerated uptake of renewables on employment creation in the sector, has received relatively lesser
attention. A review was performed by Sheikh et al. (2016) to determine the criteria that are elements of the
social and political perspectives, which found that renewable energy has the potential to play a significant
role in fulfilling the employment criterion. As in other economic and technological shifts, transitioning to
a low carbon economy will result in additional jobs being created, jobs being substituted, jobs being
eliminated and existing jobs being transformed (UNEP, 2008). Combining different methods, as proposed
by Fortes et al. (2015), is a way to advance scenario building by integrating different collective thinking
and other socioeconomic parameters.
As the energy sector increasingly moves hand in hand with economic development, social priorities and
environmental needs, an integration of social processes with technical and economic analyses of energy
systems is therefore a necessity. In purview, this research evaluates the hypothesis of sound economic

impacts from transitioning to a sustainable economy by determining the employment effects of achieving
100% renewable power supply by 2050, across the world structured into 9 major regions. The world is
categorised into Europe, Eurasia, Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asian
Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, North America and South
America. The transition of power sectors across these regions, as showcased in Breyer et al. (2017b) and
Ram et al. (2017a), serves as the basis for estimating jobs created during the transition period from 2015 to
2050. Additionally, job creation potential is estimated on a technology-wise basis as well as on a category-
wise basis during the energy transition to provide better insights on the types of jobs created. Moreover,
this research is the first to estimate potential job creation by the various storage technologies during the
energy transition on a global basis. This is primarily due to the innovative aspects of the LUT Energy
System Transition modelling tool (Breyer et al., 2017b; Ram et al., 2017a), which analyses power systems
across the world on an hourly basis enabling detailed analyses of storage requirements.
Further, this research presents an overview of existing literature in section 2. The detailed methods, various
assumptions and other relevant material in estimating job creation during the energy transition are
highlighted in section 3. The following section 4 presents the results on a regional basis and displays the
jobs created on a technology basis as well as on a category basis. In addition, section 5 discusses the results
from a global perspective and draws a few comparisons to other such studies. Finally, section 6 draws
conclusions and possible implications of the results.
2. Literature Review
In recent years, the job creation potential of renewable energy technologies in the context of the energy
transition has received attention from some of the stakeholders including academia, government agencies,
private sector and the civil society (Child et al., 2018). The International Renewable Energy Agency
(IRENA) has estimated jobs associated with renewable energy to rise to around 16.7 million by 2030
(IRENA, 2013) and their annual review of global employment related to renewable energy shows that 10.3
million people were employed in 2017 (IRENA, 2018). Jacobson et al. (2014) estimated jobs created and
jobs lost for a long-term sustainable energy infrastructure that supplies 100% of energy in all sectors
(electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) from wind, water, and solar power (without fossil
fuels, biofuels, or nuclear power) for the state of California and found that it will create a net of 220,000
40-year construction plus operation jobs (442,200 new 40-yr construction jobs and 190,600 new 40-yr
operation jobs, less 413,000 jobs lost in current California fossil- and nuclear-based industries). Further,
Jacobson et al. (2017) estimate that their main scenario by 2050 (that is electricity generation with 100%
wind, water, and solar power for all energy sectors) would create a net of 24.3 million permanent, full-time
jobs across 139 countries of the world. This estimate includes creation of 52 million new ongoing jobs for
100% renewable electricity generation and transmission supplying for highly electrified energy sectors
(including power, heat and transport) up to 2050, while 27.7 million jobs are lost in the current fossil fuel,
biofuel, and nuclear industries (Jacobson et al., 2017). Various editions of the Energy [R]evolution,
published since 2007, project probable employment outcomes across a broad range of scenarios
(Greenpeace International, 2015). The latest edition offers a global estimate for energy sector employment
to be 46.1 million by 2030 for the Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario. Nevertheless, there are studies
that have estimated the impact of renewable energy development on job creation to be negative, resulting
in job losses. Almutairi et al. (2018) show a loss of 4.45 million jobs worldwide up to 2030 in the Renewable
and Nuclear Energy (RNE) scenario (based on the predictions of the international energy outlook)
compared to the business as usual (BAU) scenario. This study (Almutairi et al., 2018) has made an effort

to estimate both the direct and indirect jobs associated with the different energy scenarios by assessing the
overall impacts on the gross domestic product (GDP) of different countries. However, Markandya et al.
(2016) found the net employment impacts from the transformation of the European Union energy sector in
the period 1995–2009, when the European Union’s energy structure went through a significant shift, away
from the more carbon intensive sources, towards gas and renewables to be positive. Moreover, the research
estimated the net employment generated from this structural change at 530,000 jobs in the European Union
and further analysis showed that the change in the input structure of the European electricity and gas supply
sector, motivated significantly by the desire to shift towards a green economy, had a net positive impact on
employment (Markandya et al., 2016). Whereas, Böhringer et al. (2013) suggest with a computable general
equilibrium analysis of subsidised electricity production from renewable energy sources (RES-E) in
Germany that the prospects for employment and welfare gains are quite limited and hinge crucially on the
level of the subsidy rate and the financing mechanism. To the contrary, by linking investments in energy
sector and jobs created, Garrett-Peltier (2017) finds that on average, 2.65 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs
are created from 1 million USD spending in fossil fuels, while that same amount of spending would create
7.49 or 7.72 FTE jobs in renewables or energy efficiency. It is further concluded that each 1 million USD
shifted from brown (includes fossil fuels and nuclear) to green energy will create a net increase of 5 jobs
(Garrett-Peltier, 2017). The results of these studies are difficult, if not impossible to compare due to their
differing assumptions and modelling approaches. However, one recurring theme seems to be the positive
contribution of high shares of renewable energy uptake to the labour market thereby generating ample
employment.
Employment trends vary significantly across the different energy generation technologies. There are a
number of identifiable methods that have been used to quantify employment impacts of the changing energy
sector and have been well documented in literature review studies, such as Breitschopf et al. (2011),
Cameron and Zwaan (2015) and Meyer and Sommer (2014). However, in general, the various methods
applied can be categorised into bottom-up and top-down approaches, or more specifically as using the
analytical or input–output (IO) models (World Bank, 2011). Additionally, Llera et al. (2013) and Hondo
and Moriizumi (2017), highlight a value-chain approach and a life-cycle approach respectively, for
estimating job creation mainly from renewable energy deployment. Furthermore, the various studies
consider different types of jobs associated with the energy industry; the common adopted classification is
‘direct’, ‘indirect’ and ‘induced’ jobs. IRENA (2011) elaborates a clear and operational definition of these
terms, as well as their interpretation across studies. Lambert and Silva (2012) find that analytical studies
using extensive surveys are found to be more appropriate for regional studies, while input–output methods
are better suited to national and international studies.
In Jacobson et al. (2014; 2017), estimates of baseline jobs per unit energy in their main scenario are based
on National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL) Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI)
models (NREL, 2013). These are economic IO models with several assumptions and uncertainties. In
contrast, IRENA (2013) and Greenpeace International (2015) adopt simpler analytical approaches to
estimating job impacts that also have a high level of transparency. This entails utilising job intensities or
employment factors (EF), defined as the number of jobs derived from a certain energy technology capacity
addition or investment. The EF approach utilised for estimates of job creation potential in Greenpeace’s
energy scenarios is documented by Rutovitz and Atherton (2009), an improved version is presented in
Rutovitz and Harris (2012) and the latest version in Rutovitz et al. (2015). This research is an effort to
further refine the methods and conduct a more comprehensive analysis of the net jobs created during an

energy transition, which includes a broad range of technologies and is the first to estimate job creation
potential of the complementary storage technologies. The research has also included estimates of
decommissioning jobs across the various power generation technologies created during the energy
transition up to 2050.
3. Methods and Materials
For this research, an analytical approach towards estimating jobs in an energy transition scenario was
adopted. Moreover, the methods were based on the approach highlighted in Rutovitz et al. (2015) and
further modified and improved for better results as well as applied to a broader range of technologies.
3.1 The Employment Factor approach
Jobs generated during the global energy transition from 2015 to 2050 are estimated utilising the EF
approach, adopted from Rutovitz et al. (2015). The EF method was utilised amongst the other methods
(Breitschopf et al., 2011), due to its simplicity and effectiveness in estimating direct employment associated
with energy generation, storage and transmission. One of the main advantages of the EF approach is that,
it can be modified for specific contexts, as well as applied over a range of energy scenarios. The Figure 1
gives an overview of the methods utilised to estimate jobs created during the energy transition from 2015
to 2050 across the different regions.

Figure 1: Method for estimation of job creation during the energy transition. Abbreviations: Employment
Factor (EF), Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) and Operational Expenditure (OPEX).
In the context of this research, the total direct jobs are a sum of jobs in manufacturing, construction and
installation, operations and maintenance, fuel supply associated with electricity generation,
decommissioning of power plants at the end of their lifetimes and transmission. The category of jobs are as
follows,
 Manufacturing Jobs – encompasses the number of jobs necessary to manufacture a unit of power
generation capacity. Manufacturing of equipment and components for a power plant project may
require several weeks, months or at most a few years’ worth of work. As such, they represent
relatively temporary employment in comparison to the entire plant lifetime. Hence, they are
expressed as job-years, or the total number of full-time jobs needed for manufacturing over the
plant’s lifetime (IRENA, 2013). Additionally, the manufacturing of equipment and components for
power plants may occur outside the country where the power generation capacity is being installed.
Many countries rely on importing, especially renewable energy technologies, as the domestic
production is insufficient or non-existent yet. On the other hand, countries that export renewable
energy equipment and components can generate employment, which is additional to that relating

to their domestic energy capacity addition by producing for export markets (IRENA, 2013). To
account for the degree of import dependence, the local manufacturing factor is considered which is
further highlighted below.
 Construction and Installation Jobs – includes all the jobs associated with constructing and installing
a unit of power generation capacity. It is assumed that a local workforce will undertake the
installation and construction of all energy projects, as is in most cases. Similar to manufacturing,
these are expressed as job-years, or the total number of full-time jobs needed for construction and
installation over the plant’s lifetime. These jobs are predominantly in the beginning phase of a
power plant (that is in the first few years) and last during the period in which the power plants are
built until the first operation. In this case, the construction and installation jobs are annualised over
the construction period of a power plant, which is the time required for construction and installation
of unit power plant capacities (in terms of per MW). The construction times for all technologies in
years can be found in the Supplementary Material.
 Operation and Maintenance Jobs – comprises all the jobs associated with operating and maintaining
the operational condition of a power plant over its technical operational lifetime. As power plants
are usually designed to run for decades, operation and maintenance jobs last for a relatively longer
duration and therefore interpreted as jobs per capacity of power generation. These jobs are
considered for the lifetime of the respective power plants and are further annualised to get total
number of jobs during the transition period. As and when power plants are decommissioned and
new power plants replace the capacity, the O&M jobs continue to exist. A learning factor, which is
correlated to the productivity increase in operational expenditures (Opex), is adopted to reflect the
decline in O&M jobs as technologies and operational processes further mature.
 Fuel Jobs – includes all the jobs associated with fuel supply to power plants (nuclear, fossil and
bioenergy). These are expressed as jobs per unit of primary energy, factoring the different rates of
fuel consumption for power plants corresponding to the fuel utilised based on conversion
efficiencies during the transition period.
 Decommissioning Jobs – consists of all jobs associated with the decommissioning of installed
power plants at the end of their operational lifetimes, especially if plants are repowered or if certain
elements are recycled or reused. These jobs are comparable to construction and installation jobs
and are expressed as job-years, or the total number of full-time jobs needed for decommissioning
over the plant’s lifetime. These jobs are further annualised during the transition period to derive the
total number of jobs created.
 Transmission Jobs – includes all the jobs associated with power transmission activities. In context
to this research, transmission jobs are expressed in terms of investments made in transmission
infrastructure, i.e. jobs per unit investments (in billion euros). As the LUT Energy System
Transition modelling tool considers only key transmission infrastructure required, the full extent of
jobs associated with transmission infrastructure is not reflected in this research. The jobs from
transmission infrastructure will be a lot higher when more accurate transmission data is considered.
 Jobs Loss: The jobs lost in fossil fuel and nuclear power plants are corresponding to the
decommissioned capacities of conventional power plants during the transition period. As
renewables are mostly installed beyond 2020, jobs do not arise in conventional power plants and
these plants are decommissioned at the end of their technical lifetimes, which creates additional
decommissioning jobs.

Some of the parameters considered in the estimation of job creation potential of various power generation
and storage technologies,
 Employment Factors – are the number of jobs per unit of installed capacity, separated into
manufacturing, construction and installation, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning.
Further, it is also jobs per unit of primary energy for fuel supply and jobs per unit of investment for
transmission of power. EFs for this research were mainly adopted from Rutovitz et al. (2015), along
with some modifications and estimates from a few other sources. These are Solar Power Europe
(2015) for rooftop PV, GTM Research and ESA (2016), Hart and Sarkissian (2016) and The Solar
Foundation (2016) for battery storage, Arcadis (2018) and Government of U.K. (2015) for gas
storage, RFF (2017), Evonik Industries (2010) and Oldham (2009) for decommissioning and The
Brattle Group (2011) for transmission. The different EFs for the various power generation and
storage technologies, along with transmission are shown in Table A1 in the Appendix.
 Decline Factors – job creation can be expected to reduce as technologies and production of these
technologies mature. This maturing occurs as a result of the growing experience and volume in the
energy industry (mainly renewables and storage); i.e. learning by doing and economies of scale
(Cameron and Zwaan, 2015). In order to account for the maturity of technology and corresponding
reduction in employment generation with increase in production capacities, EFs are correlated with
the rate of reduction in capital expenditures (CAPEX) of the corresponding power generation and
storage technologies during the transition period, in the case of manufacturing, construction and
installation jobs. While, in the case of operation and maintenance jobs the EFs are correlated with
the rate of decline in operational expenditures (OPEX) of the respective power generation and
storage technologies through the transition period. CAPEX and OPEX values during the transition
period from 2015 to 2050 can be referred to in the Supplementary Material.
 Regional Employment Multiplier – of the various regions are adopted to account for the differential
labour intensive economic activity in the different regions across the world. Since the EFs
considered are mainly from OECD countries, the regional employment multiplier accounts for the
additional employment that will be generated in non-OECD countries, which needs adjustment for
differing stages of economic development. In general, the lower the cost of labour in a country, the
greater the number of workers that will be employed to produce a unit of any particular output be
it manufacturing, construction or agriculture. Low average labour costs are closely associated with
low GDP per capita, a key indicator of economic development (Rutovitz et al., 2015). Therefore,
deriving a proxy factor correlated to average labour productivity, measured as GDP (or value
added) per worker is the most reasonable indicator. The regional employment multipliers are
expected to change over the transition period (2015-2050), as the differences in labour productivity
evolve with regional economic growth. The projected change in GDP per capita derived from GDP
growth and population growth is factored to adjust the regional employment multipliers for the 9
major regions over time. The method from Rutovitz et al. (2015) along with labour productivity
data from International Labour Organization (ILO) (ILO, 2016) was used to determine the regional
employment multipliers for the corresponding regions. Table A2 in the Appendix indicates these
values.
 Local Manufacturing Factor – represents the percentage of local manufacturing across the various
regions of the world. As manufacturing of mainly renewable energy and storage technologies is
quite unevenly distributed across the world, many regions still rely heavily on imports. Import and

export proportions as well as current export and corresponding import regions are set according to
current practices, which are derived from trade flows in the energy sector (predominantly
renewables) and industrial activity in corresponding major regions adjusted to indicators from
UNIDO (2013). Currently, the more industrialised regions of China, Europe and North America
dominate the global export of renewable energy technologies. However, with economic growth in
other regions, this research considers in an optimistic scenario that all major regions across the
world will develop towards regional self-sustenance up to 2050. This entails all major regions
having domestic manufacturing capabilities by 2050. In addition, the research has considered a
conservative scenario in which global export-import conditions remain in present conditions
(according to 2015 assumptions), to examine the deviation in jobs created. The values were mostly
adopted from Rutovitz et al. (2015), UNIDO (2013) and PwC (2017); Table A3 in the Appendix
indicates these values.
As indicated in Figure 1, manufacturing EFs, and construction and installation EFs are applied to the newly
installed capacities for each year during the transition period from 2015 to 2050. While, operation and
maintenance EFs are applied to the cumulative installed capacity for every 5-year interval between 2015
and 2050. The fuel EFs are applied to annual electricity generation form the various power generation
technologies that utilise fuel sources. The decommissioning EFs are applied to the annual decommissioned
capacities of power generation and storage technologies during the entire transition period. The
transmission EF is applied to the total annual investments in transmission for different regions during the
transition period. The installed capacities, electricity generation, fuel consumption, decommissioned
capacities and investments in transmission for the various power generation and storage technologies are
adopted from the results of the LUT Energy System Transition model, as comprehensively documented in
Bogdanov et al. (2019), Ram et al. (2017a) and Breyer et al. (2017b).
3.2 The LUT Energy Transition Model
The LUT Energy System Transition modelling tool (Bogdanov et al., 2019; Bogdanov and Breyer, 2016;
Kilickaplan et al., 2017; Ram et al., 2017a) simulates an energy system under given conditions, which is
applied for 5-year time periods from 2015 to 2050. For each period, the model defines a cost optimal energy
system structure and operation mode for the given set of constraints that are power demand, available
generation and storage technologies, financial and technical assumptions, and limits on installed capacity
for all applied technologies. The model is based on linear optimisation and performed on an hourly
resolution for entire years of the transition period. The model ensures high precision computation and
reliable results. The costs of the entire power system are calculated as a sum of the annualised capital
expenditures including the costs of capital, operational expenditures (including ramping costs), fuel costs
and the costs of GHG emissions for all available technologies under mitigation assumptions.
The energy system transition analyses also consists of distributed self-generation and consumption of
residential, commercial and industrial PV prosumers, which are simulated with a different model describing
the PV prosumer and battery capacity development. PV prosumers have the option to install their own
rooftop PV systems with or without lithium-ion batteries, and draw power from the grid in order to fulfil
their demand (Keiner et al., 2019; Ram et al., 2017b), while also having the option to feed-in to the grid
their surplus electricity (Ford et al., 2017). The target function for PV prosumers is the minimisation of the
cost of consumed electricity, calculated as a sum of self-generation, annual costs and the cost of electricity
consumed from the grid, minus the cost of electricity sold to the grid. The share of consumers opting to

install their own generation and storage is projected to gradually increase from 3% in 2015 (IEA-PVPS,
2016; SolarPower Europe, 2016) to 20% by 2050 (UBS, 2013). The share of PV prosumers increases in
accordance with the logistic function, in steps of 3, 9, 15, 18 and 20%. For a given year, if self-consumption
of electricity becomes economically feasible, then the share of prosumers for the following year increases,
otherwise the share of potential prosumers remains the same. Bogdanov et al. (2019), Ram et al. (2017a)
and Breyer et al. (2017b) provide the full set of technical as well as financial assumptions utilised in the
modelling of the energy transition.
The model has integrated all crucial aspects of power systems: power generation, storage and transmission.
The technologies introduced in the model are classified into the following categories:
- Technologies for electricity generation: renewable, fossil fuel and nuclear technologies
- Energy storage technologies
- Electricity transmission technologies
Figure 2 displays the schematic representation of the LUT Energy System Transition model and all the
power sector technologies considered for simulating the global energy transition (Bogdanov et al., 2019).
Renewable energy technologies in the model comprise solar PV (optimally fixed-tilted, single-axis north-
south tracking and rooftop), concentrating solar thermal power (CSP), wind turbines (onshore and
offshore), hydropower (run-of-river and reservoir/ dam), geothermal and bioenergy (solid biomass, biogas
and waste-to-energy power plants). Fossil fuel based power generation technologies considered are coal-
fired power plants, oil-based internal combustion engines (ICE), open cycle gas turbines (OCGT) and
combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT).

Figure 2: The schematic representation of the LUT Energy System Transition model for the power sector
with the various sources of power generation, transmission options, storage technologies and power
demand sectors (Ram et al., 2017a).
Storage technologies are further classified into the following categories:
- Short-term: Li-ion batteries and pumped hydro storage (PHS)
- Medium-term: adiabatic compressed air energy storage (A-CAES) according to Aghahosseini and
Breyer (2018) and thermal energy storage (TES)
- Long-term: gas storage including power-to-gas technology, which allows production of synthetic
methane for the energy system.
The transition to a fully renewable powered energy system has been carried out for the whole world, which
is categorised into 9 major regions that are Europe, Eurasia, Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Sub-
Saharan Africa, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Northeast Asia, Southeast
Asia, North America and South America (Ram et al., 2017a). The energy transition simulation takes into
account the existing power grid, its development and impact on overall electricity transmission and
distribution losses (Sadovskaia et al., 2018). All regions within a country are interconnected with either
high voltage direct current (HVDC) or high voltage alternating current (HVAC) power lines, therefore
increasing local flexibility while reducing overall national system costs.
All the financial and technical assumptions with the corresponding references to data sources for all energy
system components are highlighted in Ram et al. (2017a). Electricity demand of the global power sector is
estimated to increase from 23,141 TWh in 2015 to about 48,800 TWh in the year 2050, which represents a
global average compound annual growth rate of 2.2% in the energy transition period, and is comparable to
the assumption of 1.9% by the IEA (2016). The global power plant capacity is structured according to the
major power generation and storage technologies and their corresponding country and region of location
along with the year of commissioning, in an annual resolution (Farfan and Breyer, 2017).
3.3 Best Policy Scenario
A Best Policy Scenario (BPS) entails 100% electricity generation from renewable energy resources and
various storage options across the different regions of the world, in line with the goals of the Paris
Agreement. The development of the power sector is characterised by a dynamically growing electricity
demand driven by developing and emerging countries and an increasing share of renewable electricity in
the overall supply mix. The results show a growing renewable energy trend that will compensate for the
phasing out of nuclear power production as well as for the continually reducing number of fossil fuel based
power plants. As per the results, the installed capacity of renewables will reach about 14,000 GW in 2030
and more than 28,000 GW by 2050. A 100% electricity supply from renewable energy resources leads to
around 23,600 GW of installed generation capacities of solar PV, wind energy, hydropower, bioenergy and
geothermal power by 2050 as highlighted in Bogdanov et al. (2019) and Ram et al. (2017a). The share of
renewable electricity in the overall mix will reach 99.65% of the electricity generated worldwide in 2050.
Renewable power generation technologies, mainly solar PV and wind energy, are expected to contribute
nearly 87% to the total electricity generation by 2050. Storage technologies play a vital role in enabling the
transition towards a fully renewables powered energy system. The overall storage output covers 31% of the
total electricity demand in 2050, of which batteries deliver 95%. The installed capacities are dominated by
gas storage, whereas the overall output is dominated by battery storage. The levelised cost of electricity for

the global power system declines from around 70 €/MWh in 2015 to about 52 €/MWh by 2050.
Additionally, regional results of the energy transition worldwide can be found in Bogdanov et al. (2019)
and Ram et al. (2017a).
4. Results
The resulting least cost energy mix comprising various power generation and storage technologies in each
of the 9 major regions during the energy transition period from 2015 to 2050 from the Best Policy Scenario,
serves as the basis for estimating the corresponding employment creation.
The results are presented according to the major regions followed by the global estimates.
4.1 Europe
Europe is one of the major economic centres of the world with an 18% share of global GDP (IMF, 2017),
and amongst the biggest energy consumers across the world, with total electricity consumption of around
4000 TWh in 2015, which is estimated to rise to around 5400 TWh by 2050 (IEA, 2016). Europe has been
at the forefront of the global energy transition with about 37% of installed power capacity and nearly 30%
of electricity generation from renewables (REN21, 2017).
There were just over 2 million direct jobs in the energy sector across Europe in 2015, with more than 50%
of these in the renewable energy sector. With the rapid increase in renewable energy installations up to
2025, jobs in the energy sector are seen to rise to around 3.7 million, and stabilise between 3.3 million by
2035 and 3.4 million by 2050 as shown in Figure 3. Solar PV emerges as the major job creating sector with
1.73 million jobs by 2050, while bioenergy (675 thousand jobs by 2050) and hydropower (212 thousand
jobs by 2050) create stable number jobs through the transition period. Whereas, the wind power sector is
expected to create around 400 thousand jobs in 2025 (bulk of the share in onshore and a few thousand in
offshore) and further as capacities installed are lesser with more cost effective solar PV, jobs created in
wind are around 264 thousand by 2050. Storage technologies led by batteries are observed to start creating
jobs from 2025 onwards, with a stable share until 2050 (277 thousand jobs in the battery sector). Whereas,
jobs in the fossil fuel and nuclear sectors decline through the transition period and by 2050 are almost non-
existent apart from a few thousand jobs associated with decommissioning of conventional power plants.
This trend can already be observed across Europe with many countries opting to phase out coal and nuclear
power generation, with some of the countries also divesting from conventional power generation projects
(Agora Energiewende & Sandbag, 2018).
Figure 3: Jobs created by the various power generation and storage technologies (left) and jobs created

based on different categories with the development of electricity demand specific jobs (right) during the
energy transition from 2015 to 2050 in Europe.
The category-wise distribution of jobs for Europe during the transition period is shown in Figure 3.
Manufacturing, construction and installation of renewable energy technologies create a significant share of
jobs enabling the rapid ramp up of capacity until 2025, beyond this period there are stable number of jobs
created in these sectors up to 2050 with over a million jobs. Furthermore, manufacturing includes both for
local use as well as for exports to other regions as indicated by Table A3 in the Appendix. The share of
exports initially rise up to 2030 with over 4% of total jobs, beyond which it declines and manufacturing is
predominantly to cater to the local power market across Europe. Fuel jobs continue to decline through the
transition period reaching just 6% of total jobs by 2050, as capacities of conventional power plants continue
to decline. To the contrary, operation and maintenance jobs continue to grow through the transition period
and become the major job segment by 2050 with 61% of total jobs. As operation and maintenance jobs last
through the lifetime of power plants, they offer relatively stable long-term job prospects. This has the
potential to create a positive effect in many countries across Europe that suffer from high levels of
unemployment, especially amongst the youth. In January 2018, 3.65 million young people (under 25) were
unemployed across the European Union (EU) (Eurostat, 2017). The electricity demand specific jobs, which
indicates total number of jobs created annually for every TWhel of annual electricity generation during the
energy transition. As indicated in Figure 3, the specific jobs were at 516 jobs/TWhel in 2015, increasing to
859 jobs/TWhel in 2025 with the rapid ramp up in renewable energy installations. Beyond 2025, it declines
steadily to 638 jobs/TWhel by 2050.
4.2 Eurasia
Eurasia comprises countries that are amongst the emerging economies of the world, with around a 6% share
of global GDP (IMF, 2017). This implies a rapidly growing appetite for energy, with total electricity
consumption of around 1080 TWh in 2015 that is estimated to grow to 1630 TWh by 2050 (IEA, 2016).
Hydropower has been the prominent resource in the region with around 50 GW of installed capacity in
Russia. In recent years, renewables have been making inroads into power systems across the region and are
expected to develop rapidly with the widespread presence of excellent resources (UNECE & REN21, 2017).
The total direct energy jobs in this region are set to increase with the initial ramp up of installations from
about 566 thousand in 2015 to around 871 thousand by 2025, after a decline in 2030, it is observed to
steadily rise to around 925 thousand by 2050. With great potential for wind power, bulk of the jobs from
2020 to 2030 are observed to be associated with wind power development creating around 353 thousand
jobs in 2025. As solar PV delivers the least cost energy from 2030 onwards (Breyer et al., 2017; Ram et al.,
2017a), along with driving up installed capacities, it emerges as the prime job creator in the region up to
2050 with about 411 thousand jobs, as shown in Figure 4. The hydropower sector with 130 thousand jobs
by 2050 is seen to provide stable number of jobs through the transition period, along with some jobs from
geothermal and bioenergy sectors (combined 75 thousand jobs by 2050). Jobs associated with the storage
sector begin to develop from 2040 onwards, but remain relatively lower than other regions with just about
58 thousand jobs by 2050, as hydropower in combination with robust transmission networks play a
prominent role in reducing the need for storage.

Figure 4: Jobs created by the various power generation and storage technologies (left) and jobs created
based on different categories with the development of electricity demand specific jobs (right) during the
energy transition from 2015 to 2050 in Eurasia.
The category-wise distribution of jobs for Eurasia during the transition period is as depicted in Figure 4.
Local manufacturing, construction and installation of renewable energy technologies create a significant
share of jobs enabling the rapid build-up of capacities in the period 2020-2025 (508 thousand jobs), this is
also due to the fact that most conventional power plants in this region are quite old and nearing their end of
lifetimes that have to be replaced (Farfan and Breyer, 2017). This could serve as a co-benefit of the energy
transition for countries across Eurasia. Beyond 2030, there are stable number of jobs created in these sectors
up to 2050 with around 407 thousand jobs. Fuel jobs after an initial increase in 2020 (40% of total
jobs),decline through the transition period as capacities of conventional power plants are replaced by
renewables until 2030 and further decline up to 2050 reaching just about 2% of total jobs. On the contrary,
operation and maintenance jobs continue to grow through the transition period and become the major job
creating segment by 2050, with 51% of total jobs. As operation and maintenance jobs last through the
lifetime of power plants, they offer relatively stable long-term job prospects. As indicated in Figure 4, the
electricity demand specific jobs was at 516 jobs/TWhel in 2015 and increases to 859 jobs/TWhel in 2025
with the rapid ramp up in renewable energy installations. Beyond 2025, it declines steadily to 638
jobs/TWhel by 2050.
4.3 MENA
MENA is comprised of countries that are emerging economies as well as developed, with around 7% share
in global GDP (IMF, 2017). This region is amongst the largest energy producers in the world, with an
increasingly high share of demand (Aghahosseini et al., 2016). The total electricity consumption was around
1360 TWh in 2015, which is estimated to rise to 3320 TWh by 2050 (IEA, 2016). This region has immense
solar resources, which can be harnessed to meet this growing demand.
With record low auctions for solar power across the MENA region, solar PV has emerged as the most
attractive source of electricity generation (Dipaola, 2017). Both utility-scale and rooftop PV are seen to
develop through the transition period to be the dominant source for power generation by 2050 (MEED,
2017; Ram et al., 2017a). Similarly, solar PV is the prime job creator through the transition period with
almost a million jobs by 2050, as indicated in Figure 5. Wind power generation creates a fair share of jobs
during the period of 2020 to 2030 (260 thousand jobs in 2030), beyond which the shares are reduced, as
PV becomes more cost competitive. Storage technologies in the form of batteries take off from 2030
onwards and lead to a decent share of jobs created up to 2050 (193 thousand jobs in the battery sector). The

total number of direct energy jobs across the MENA region are observed to increase from just around 590
thousand in 2015 to nearly 1.7 million by 2050.
Figure 5: Jobs created by the various power generation and storage technologies (left) and jobs created
based on different categories with the development of electricity demand specific jobs (right) during the
energy transition from 2015 to 2050 in the MENA region.
Figure 5, also indicates the distribution of jobs across the different categories during the transition period
in the MENA region. With rapid installation of capacities up to 2035, bulk of the jobs are created in the
construction and installation of power generation technologies. Manufacturing jobs have a relatively lower
share in the initial periods up to 2020 as the share of imports is high. From 2025onwards, as domestic
production capabilities build up, a higher share of manufacturing jobs are observed until 2050 with 15% of
total jobs. The share of fuel related jobs continues to diminish from 2020 onwards through the transition
period reaching just 1% of total jobs by 2050, as conventional power plants are replaced by renewable and
storage technologies. Whereas, the share of operation and maintenance jobs grows through the transition
period up to 53% of total jobs by 2050. This means more stable jobs for a region suffering from high
unemployment amongst the youth and a growing number of economic migrants. A higher share of
investments in developing sustainable power infrastructure could be the right catalyst to create long-term
jobs in this region (Ianchovichina et al., 2013). The electricity demand specific jobs increases from 435
jobs/TWhel in 2015 to 788 jobs/TWhel in 2025 with the rapid ramp up in renewable energy installations.
Beyond 2025, it declines steadily to around 509 jobs/TWhel by 2050, as shown in Figure 5.
4.4 Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa is a region with a large number of emerging economies, with just around a 3% share
in global GDP (IMF, 2017), but is poised to be one of the fastest growing regions in the world. With rapidly
growing population, unprecedented economic progress and need for reliable, modern energy access, the
total electricity consumption that is around 484 TWh in 2015, is estimated to rise to 2747 TWh by 2050
(IEA, 2016). The renewable energy sector is growing in Sub-Saharan Africa, with 14 countries having set
themselves targets and doubling investments to above 5 billion USD, between 2014 and 2015 (BNEF,
2017).
Countries such as South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia and Rwanda have accelerated their renewable energy
adoption and are leading the energy transition across Sub-Saharan Africa (BonelliErede, 2017). As this
trend is observed to pick up across the region during the transition period with solar PV emerging as the
dominant source of power generation by 2050 (Barasa et al., 2018; Ram et al., 2017a). Likewise, solar PV
is observed to be the prime job creator through the transition period, with 65% of the total jobs created by

2050, as depicted in Figure 6. A fair share of jobs are created by wind power (283 thousand jobs in 2025)
and bioenergy (377 thousand jobs in 2025) initially, which tend to stabilise later on, as solar PV is far more
cost competitive beyond 2030. Jobs created by storage technologies mainly driven by batteries, increase in
share beyond 2030 and continue to grow up to 2050 (862 thousand jobs in the battery sector). While, jobs
associated with fossil fuels, mainly coal and gas power generation, rapidly diminish across the region.
Overall, the number of direct energy jobs are seen to grow massively from just under 1.2 million in 2015
to nearly 5.5 million by 2050.
Figure 6: Jobs created by the various power generation and storage technologies (left) and jobs created
based on different categories with the development of electricity demand specific jobs (right) during the
energy transition from 2015 to 2050 in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Figure 6, also indicates the distribution of jobs across the different categories during the transition period
across Sub-Saharan Africa. With ramp up of installations up to 2035, bulk of the jobs are created in the
construction and installation of power generation technologies. Manufacturing jobs have a relatively lower
share in the initial periods up to 2020, as the share of imports is high. From 2025 onwards, as domestic
production capabilities build up, a higher share of manufacturing jobs are observed until 2050 with 19% of
total jobs. The share of fuel related jobs continues to diminish through the transition period from 63% of
total jobs in 2015 to just 3% of total jobs by 2050, as conventional power plants are replaced by renewable
and storage technologies. Whereas, the share of operation and maintenance jobs grow through the transition
period reaching 42% of total jobs by 2050. This could be the boost required for employment prospects in
Sub-Saharan Africa, which are presently stagnating due to low productivity attributed to the region’s lack
of economic diversification (Brookings, 2017). The electricity demand specific jobs increase from 2399
jobs/TWhel in 2015 to 3235 jobs/TWhel in 2025 with the rapid ramp up in renewable energy installations.
Beyond 2025, it declines steadily to around 1990 jobs/TWhel by 2050, as shown in Figure 6. The electricity
demand specific jobs are the highest in comparison to all other regions across the world as Sub-Saharan
Africa continues to have a high labour intensity through the transition period (the labour intensity factors
can be referred to in the Supplementary Material).
4.5 SAARC
SAARC consists of some of the most fast-paced growing economies, with around 9% share of global GDP
and 21% of the global population (IMF, 2017). With rapidly growing population, unprecedented economic
progress and need for reliable modern energy services, the total electricity consumption that is around 1694
TWh in 2015, is estimated to rise to 6979 TWh by 2050 (IEA, 2016; Gulagi et al., 2018). The region lead
by India with around 50 GW of solar and wind power capacity has recently witnessed an increasing shift

towards renewable energy (Buckley and Shah, 2018). Driven by policy initiatives and the tremendous drop
in costs have made wind and solar PV the most attractive propositions for power generation.
In the last 2 quarters of 2017, only renewable energy capacities were added in the Indian power sector
(Saurabh, 2018) and Sri Lanka has already made plans to generate 100% of their power from renewable
energy sources (ADB & UNDP, 2017). This trend is set to continue with solar PV complemented by
batteries to dominate the power share by 2050. Similarly, solar PV (4.18 million jobs) and battery storage
(894 thousand jobs) sectors emerge as the major job creators across the region by 2050 as shown in Figure
7. Wind power (504 thousand in 2030), hydropower (297 thousand jobs in 2020) and bioenergy (523
thousand jobs in 2025) create a fair share of the jobs in the initial periods of the transition. Beyond 2030,
the shares decrease and stabilise until 2050. The storage sector led by batteries create a fair share of the jobs
in 2030 with 23% of total jobs and continue to contribute until 2050 with a steady share. Whereas, the jobs
associated primarily with coal and gas power generation diminish rapidly. The total number of direct energy
jobs increase rapidly from over 4.2 million in 2015 to just over 7 million by 2030, thereafter stabilising
around 5.8 million by 2050. This drop is primarily due to the rapid ramping up of power capacity
installations to ensure energy access for the vast number of un-electrified people in this region up to 2030.
Beyond that, capacity addition would be at a slower rate to fulfil economic development.
Figure 7: Jobs created by the various power generation and storage technologies (left) and jobs created
based on different categories with the development of electricity demand specific jobs (right) during the
energy transition from 2015 to 2050 in the SAARC region.
The category-wise distribution of jobs created in the SAARC region through the transition period is shown
in Figure 7. With a rapid ramp up of installations up to 2030, bulk of the jobs are created in the construction
and installation of power generation technologies with 40% of total jobs in 2030. While, manufacturing
jobs increase in share during 2020 to 2030, with some shares of exports (domestic manufacturing creates
25% and exports creates 2% of total jobs in 2030). The SAARC region is an importer as well as an exporter
of power generation technologies (the shares of import and export can be referred to Table A3 in the
Appendix). Beyond 2030, as production capabilities in other importing regions build up, a relatively lower
share of manufacturing jobs are observed until 2050 (around 18% of total jobs). The share of fuel related
jobs continues to diminish through the transition period, as conventional power plants are replaced by
renewable and storage technologies (from 49% of total jobs in 2015 to just 1% of total jobs by 2050).
Whereas, the share of operation and maintenance jobs continues to grow through the transition period with
48% of total jobs by 2050. The electricity demand specific jobs decrease steadily from 2508 jobs/TWhel in
2015 to 2335 jobs/TWhel in 2030 with the rapid ramp up in renewable energy installations. Beyond 2030,
it declines rapidly to around 834 jobs/TWhel by 2050, as shown in Figure 7. The electricity demand specific

jobs have a rapid decline as most countries of SAARC have rapidly growing economies, which are expected
to witness better economic conditions beyond 2030. Further improving up to 2050, resulting in a declining
labour intensity through the transition period (the labour intensity factors can be referred to in the
Supplementary Material).
4.6 Northeast Asia
The Northeast Asian region is comprised of the fastest growing economies, with around a 25% share of the
global GDP and 22% of the global population (Haysom et al., 2015). With rapid industrialisation,
unprecedented economic progress and a soaring appetite for energy, the total electricity consumption that
is around 6847 TWh in 2015, is estimated to soar up to 15,078 TWh by 2050 (IEA, 2016; Bogdanov and
Breyer, 2016). Renewable energy is high on the agenda for countries across Northeast Asia, with excellent
wind and solar resources particularly in Mongolia (Breyer et al., 2015).
China has been leading not only in the region, but also globally with a cumulative solar PV capacity of
around 130 GW and 163 GW of wind by the end of 2017 (Frankfurt School - UNEP & BNEF, 2018).
Additionally, Japan and South Korea have developed plans to increase the share of renewables in their
respective power mixes (BNEF, 2017). Renewable energy capacities are observed to increase rapidly in the
next couple of decades across the region (Ram et al., 2017a). Likewise, jobs are created from mainly wind
(2 million jobs in 2025) and solar PV (3.5 million jobs in 2025) in the early stages of the transition. From
2030 onwards, solar PV is observed to be the main source of power generation and correspondingly creating
the most number of jobs (6.7 million jobs by 2050) as indicated in Figure 8. Storage technologies led by
batteries are observed to create a fair share of jobs from 2030 onwards and continue unto 2050 with 1.3
million jobs in the battery sector. Whereas, jobs associated with the coal sector are seen to decrease rapidly.
The total direct jobs are seen to increase from around 8 million in 2015 to 9.5 million by 2030 and after a
decline, number of jobs rises back to around 10 million by 2050. Primarily with the replacements of power
plants beginning to increase in the period from 2045 to 2050.
Figure 8: Jobs created by the various power generation and storage technologies (left) and jobs created
based on different categories with the development of electricity demand specific jobs (right) during the
energy transition from 2015 to 2050 in Northeast Asia.
The distribution of jobs according to the different categories during the transition period across Northeast
Asia is shown in Figure 8. With a ramp up of installations until 2030, bulk of the jobs are created in the
construction and installation of power generation technologies (39% of total jobs in 2030). Manufacturing
jobs have a higher share in the initial periods up to 2030, beyond which the shares stabilise up to 2050. The
Northeast Asian region contributes a major share of the global exports to all other regions (refer to Table

A3 in the Appendix). However, the share of jobs created by exports reduce beyond 2030, as other regions
are expected to increase their domestic production capabilities (exports creating just 36 thousand jobs by
2050). The share of fuel related jobs continue to diminish through the transition period from 43% of total
jobs in 2015 to just 1% of total jobs by 2050, as conventional power plants are replaced by renewable and
storage technologies. Whereas, the share of operation and maintenance jobs grows through the transition
period from 13% of total jobs in 2015 to 48% of total jobs in 2050. Additionally, decommissioning jobs
that include replacement of end of life power plants begin to create some jobs by 2050 (293 thousand jobs).
The electricity demand specific jobs is reduced from 1187 jobs/TWhel in 2015 to 675 jobs/TWhel by 2050,
as shown in Figure 8. This is primarily due to the rising economic growth of the region forecasted for the
future, resulting in much lower labour intensity by 2050.
4.7 Southeast Asia
The Southeast Asian region including Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific Islands is comprised of
rapidly growing economies, with around 7% share of global GDP (IMF, 2017). With rapid economic
growth in most of these countries, the need for energy is ever increasing and some of the more developed
countries have a high rate of consumption to sustain. In this context, the total electricity consumption that
is around 1208 TWh in 2015, is estimated to soar up to 4222 TWh by 2050 (IEA, 2016; Gulagi et al., 2017).
Renewables have grown rapidly as a power source across Southeast Asia, with their installed capacity at
around 15 GW in 2016 (IRENA, 2018).
By the end of 2017, cumulative installed capacity for solar PV in Australia was around 6.4 GW with close
to 1.8 million rooftop installations (AEC, 2018).Whereas, New Zealand aims to produce 90% of their
electricity from renewable sources by 2025 (Electricity Authority, 2016; Ford et al., 2017). With the trend
across the region indicating a shift towards renewable energy, it can be observed that solar PV along with
battery storage emerge as the primary power source by 2050 (Gulagi et al., 2017; Ram et al., 2017a).
Likewise, solar PV and battery storage sectors create the major share of jobs through the transition period
as shown in Figure 9. Biomass and hydropower create a higher share in the initial periods up to 2025, but
continue to create some jobs through the transition period. Wind power sector creates some jobs during
2020 to 2030 (96 thousand jobs in 2025), beyond which fewer jobs are created as solar PV becomes more
cost effective and installations increase in share with 2.1 million jobs by 2050. The storage sector led by
batteries create a fair share of the jobs from 2030 onwards and continues through to 2050 with 414 thousand
jobs in the battery sector by 2050. This could happen lot earlier as countries such as Australia are already
witnessing both utility-scale as well as prosumer scale battery installations (AEC, 2018). Jobs associated
with coal and gas power generation are seen to decline rapidly. The total number of direct energy jobs
increases significantly from around 1.2 million in 2015 to over 3.3 million in 2030, beyond which there is
a decline to under 2.5 million by 2040, after which there is a steady increase up to around 3.2 million by
2050.

Figure 9: Jobs created by the various power generation and storage technologies (left) and jobs created
based on different categories with the development of electricity demand specific jobs (right) during the
energy transition from 2015 to 2050 in Southeast Asia.
A category-wise distribution of jobs in the region through the transition period is shown in Figure 9. With
rapid installation of capacities up to 2030, bulk of the jobs are created in the construction and installation
of power generation technologies with 42% of total jobs by 2030. Manufacturing jobs have a relatively
lower share in the initial periods up to 2020 as the share of imports is relatively high. Beyond 2025 as
domestic production capabilities build up, a high share of manufacturing jobs are observed until 2050 (from
21% of total jobs in 2035 to 17% of total jobs by 2050). The share of fuel related jobs continues to diminish
from 2020 onwards through the transition period reaching just 2% of total jobs by 2050, as conventional
power plants are replaced by renewable and storage technologies. Whereas, the share of operation and
maintenance jobs continues to grow through the transition period with 49% of total jobs by 2050. The
electricity demand specific jobs increases from 997 jobs/TWhel in 2015 to 1541 jobs/TWhel in 2030 with
the rapid ramp up in renewable energy installations. Beyond 2030, it declines steadily to around 748
jobs/TWhel by 2050, as highlighted in Figure 9.
4.8 North America
North America is comprised of the major economic centres of the world, the USA, Canada and a rapidly
emerging economy in Mexico, with a 19% share of global GDP (IMF, 2017), and is one of the largest
energy consumption centres across the world, with total electricity consumption of around 5284 TWh in
2015. This is estimated to rise to 7069 TWh by 2050, mainly driven by the rapid growth of Mexico as well
as stable electricity demands from the USA and Canada (IEA, 2016; Aghahosseini et al., 2017). Renewable
energy has been on the rise in the recent years across all the 3 countries. By the end of 2017, the USA had
installed capacities of 91 GW of wind and 52 GW of solar in its power mix. There has been a steady rise in
the share of renewable power generation in Canada and the latest power generation auctions in Mexico
yielded some of the lowest bids, with an average in the range of 17 – 18 €/MWh (Bellini, 2017; Rabson,
2017).
Mexico has set a target of at least 35% of total electricity generation by 2024 to be from renewable energy
sources (REN21, 2017). The trend is set to continue in the USA and Canada too, and a combination of
wind, solar PV, hydropower and battery storage are seen as the most economical power generation sources
by 2050 (Ram et al., 2017a). Similarly, solar PV (1.62 million jobs in 2025) along with wind (762 thousand
jobs in 2025) emerge to be the dominant job creating sectors during the transition period as shown in Figure
10. Additionally, hydropower (180 thousand jobs by 2050) and bioenergy (180 thousand jobs by 2050)

create a stable share of jobs through the transition period. Storage led by batteries begin to create jobs from
2025 onwards with a stable share until 2050 with 330 thousand jobs in the battery sector. Whereas, coal
and gas power generation associated jobs are seen to decline rapidly. Overall, jobs are set to increase from
around 1.8 million in 2015 to nearly 3.8 million, with the rapid ramp up in installations up to 2025 and then
a steady decline towards nearly 2.7 million by 2050.
Figure 10: Jobs created by the various power generation and storage technologies (left) and jobs created
based on different categories with the development of electricity demand specific jobs (right) during the
energy transition from 2015 to 2050 in North America.
The category-wise distribution of jobs in North America during the transition period is shown in Figure 10.
Manufacturing, construction and installation of renewable energy technologies create a significant share of
jobs enabling the rapid ramp up of capacity until 2030, beyond this period there are stable number of jobs
created in these sectors up to 2050. Furthermore, manufacturing includes both for local use as well as for
exports to the other regions as indicated by Table A3 in the Appendix. The share of manufacturing jobs
along with a marginal share of exports initially rise up to 2025 (21% and 1% of total jobs respectively),
beyond which they decline. As manufacturing is predominantly to cater to the local power markets across
North America with domestic manufacturing having a share of 11% of total jobs by 2050 and only 4
thousand jobs for exports. Fuel jobs continue to decline through the transition period reaching just 2% of
total jobs by 2050, as capacities of conventional power plants continue to decline. On the contrary, operation
and maintenance jobs continue to grow through the transition period and become the major job creating
segment by 2050 with 64% of total jobs. As operation and maintenance jobs last through the lifetime of
power plants, they offer relatively stable long-term job prospects. This has the potential to create a positive
effect in many parts of the USA that suffer from persistent unemployment (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,
2018). The electricity demand specific jobs initially increase from 339 jobs/TWhel in 2015 to 666
jobs/TWhel in 2025 with the rapid ramp up in renewable energy installations. Beyond 2025, it declines
steadily to 374 jobs/TWhel by 2050 as highlighted in Figure 10.
4.9 South America
The South American region including Central American countries is comprised of growing economies,
with around a 6% share of global GDP (IMF, 2017). With steadily increasing economic growth in most of
the countries, the need for energy is rising. The total electricity consumption that is around 1180 TWh in
2015, is estimated to rise up to 2420 TWh by 2050 (IEA, 2016; Barbosa et al., 2017). A distinctive feature
of South America’s power generation mix is the predominance of hydropower and bioenergy, due largely
to the high shares in Brazil, which generates about 40% of the total regional electricity (IRENA, 2016).

In recent years, South America has witnessed an impressive growth in renewable power generation, whose
installed capacities have more than tripled between 2006 and 2015, from 10 GW to 36 GW (IRENA, 2016;
REN21, 2017). While in absolute terms most of that growth has been in bioenergy and onshore wind
primarily in Brazil, solar PV has also grown significantly in Chile, Peru and Uruguay (BNEF, 2017). This
trend is seen to rapidly increase in the near future and continue through the transition period, with solar PV
complemented by hydropower, wind and biomass emerging as the main sources of power generation by
2050 (Barbosa et al., 2017; Ram et al., 2017a). Likewise, jobs are predominantly created in the bioenergy
(827 thousand jobs by 2020) and hydropower (357 thousand jobs by 2025) sectors during the initial periods
of the transition up to 2030 as shown in Figure 11. Beyond which, solar PV (930 thousand jobs by 2050)
along with battery storage (202 thousand jobs by 2050) emerge as the major job creators. Storage led by
batteries create jobs from 2025 onwards and maintain a stable share (9% of total jobs in 2025) through the
transition period until 2050 (12% of total jobs). Whereas, coal, gas and oil power generation associated jobs
decline rapidly, almost disappearing by 2025. With the brisk build up in installations, the total number of
direct energy jobs rise from just under 1 million to nearly 2.2 million by 2025 and a steady decline thereafter
towards 1.6 million by 2050.
Figure 11: Jobs created by the various power generation and storage technologies (left) and jobs created
based on different categories with the development of electricity demand specific jobs (right) during the
energy transition from 2015 to 2050 in South America.
A category-wise distribution of jobs in South America through the transition period is shown in Figure 11.
With rapid installation of power generation capacities in the initial period of 2020 to 2030, bulk of the jobs
are created in the construction and installation of power generation technologies with 40% of total jobs by
2025. Manufacturing jobs have a relatively lower share in the initial periods with a high share of imports.
Beyond 2030, the share of manufacturing jobs are observed to stabilise until 2050 (16% of total jobs), with
increase in domestic production capabilities. The share of fuel related jobs continues to diminish through
the transition period reaching just 3% of total jobs by 2050, as conventional power plants are replaced by
renewable and storage technologies. Whereas, the share of operation and maintenance jobs grows through
the transition period with 52% of total jobs by 2050. A small share of decommissioning jobs with around
3% of total jobs by 2050, are created through the transition period with the continuous replacement of power
plants at the end of their lifetimes. The electricity demand specific jobs rapidly increases from 835
jobs/TWhel in 2015 to 1669 jobs/TWhel in 2020 with the rapid ramp up in renewable energy installations.
Beyond 2020, it declines steadily to around 674 jobs/TWhel by 2050, as highlighted in Figure 11.
4.10 Global

With the rapid ramp up of installed capacities, a growing share of renewable power generation technologies
are observed to compensate for the phasing out of nuclear power production as well as for the continually
reducing number of fossil fuel power plants globally (Breyer et al., 2017b; Ram et al., 2017a). This strong
growth in the renewable energy sector leads to an increase of around 70% more direct power sector jobs by
2030, and the overall jobs created are 1.5 times as high in 2050, compared to 2015. Jobs created continue
to rise to reach around 34 million direct energy jobs by 2030. Beyond this point, they decline to around the
30 million range and then steadily increase to nearly 35 million by 2050 as shown in Figure 12. This is
mainly due to large capacities being replaced and reinvested in, as they would reach end of their lifetimes
with decommissioning contributing around 2% of total jobs by 2050. Solar PV (22.2 million jobs by 2050),
batteries (4.5 million jobs by 2050) and wind energy (1.4 million jobs by 2050) are the major job creating
technologies during the entire transition period from 2015 to 2050. In the case of wind energy, around 7.3
million jobs are created in the period from 2020 to 2030, beyond that, as solar PV becomes more cost
effective they drive majority of the installations until 2050 and jobs in the wind sector are stabilised. While,
hydropower (1.9 million jobs by 2050) and bioenergy (2.3 million jobs by 2050) create a stable share of
jobs through the transition period. Solar PV is observed to replace coal as the major job creating energy
resource, with around 64% of total jobs by 2050, as compared to just 10% of total jobs in 2015.
Additionally, it is well complemented by battery storage creating around 13% of total jobs by 2050.
Whereas, jobs in the coal, gas and nuclear power sectors are observed to decline rapidly as shown in Figure
12.
Figure 12: Jobs created by the various power generation and storage technologies (left) and jobs created
based on different categories with the development of electricity demand specific jobs (right) during the
energy transition from 2015 to 2050 globally.
A category-wise classification of jobs in manufacturing, construction and installation, operation and
maintenance, fuel supply, decommissioning and transmission created during the energy transition from
2015 to 2050 is shown in Figure 12. Fuel sector jobs are set to decline from 44% of the total jobs in 2015
to just around 2% of the total jobs by 2050, as fossil fuels and nuclear power capacities decline. On the
other hand, it can be observed that operation and maintenance jobs have the most significant increase in the
share of the total jobs created from 15% in 2015 to 50% by 2050. This indicates that the transition towards
a 100% renewable power system enables creation of more stable jobs, which can contribute to stable
economic growth of countries mainly in the developing regions of the world and provide a means of tackling
youth unemployment (Ali, 2014). In many parts of the world, this could be a catalyst to improve social
wellbeing as well as political stability (Kollewe, 2010). Furthermore, Figure 12 also illustrates the
development of the electricity demand specific jobs, which remain quite stable through the transition period.

With 897 jobs/TWhel in 2015 and rising up to 1091 jobs/TWhel in 2030 due to a large share of investments
during this period, beyond 2030 it declines steadily to around 715 jobs/TWhel in 2050.
5. Discussion
With respect to labour markets across the world, many regions are facing stagnating economies
accompanied by high and rising unemployment rates, particularly amongst the youth. Unemployment rates
of youngsters in Europe reached 23.5% in the first quarter of 2013, more than twice the rate for the overall
population and in some countries, more than half of young people under the age of 25 are unemployed (EC,
2013). Likewise, global unemployment levels and rates have been high in the last few years and are
expected to remain high in the range of 5.8% bringing total unemployment to over 200 million in 2017
(ILO, 2017). Moreover, vulnerable forms of employment (those that lack access to contributory social
protection schemes) are expected to remain above 42% of the total employment in 2017, accounting for
around 1.4 billion people worldwide (ILO, 2017). At the same time, the risk of social unrest or discontent
has heightened across many regions of the world. The ILO’s social unrest index, which seeks to proxy the
expressed discontent with the socioeconomic situation in countries, indicates that average global social
unrest increased between 2015 and 2016 (ILO, 2017; Kollewe, 2010). Therefore, the creation of
employment opportunities is a major policy priority, especially for countries with high levels of
unemployment and underemployment, be it a long-term issue or the immediate consequence of an economic
recession. In this context, the renewable energy sector has weathered the latest financial and economic crisis
successfully, as compared to many other industries (IRENA, 2013). Moreover, it has become a relatively
mature economic sector with steady technological progress, falling production costs and rising labour
productivity. As the global transition towards sustainable energy continues, renewable energy labour force
requirements are set to increase (Behrens et al., 2014; Greenpeace International, 2015; Jacobson et al.,
2017).
The global employment creation in the power sector with increased shares of renewable power generation
capacity will have a net positive effect, which is the number of jobs created by installing new capacities of
renewable energy are significantly higher than the number of jobs associated with fossil and nuclear power
generation. As shown by results from the previous section as well as other studies IRENA (2013), Behrens
et al. (2014), Greenpeace International (2015), EPFL (2018) and Jacobson et al. (2017). This research
estimates the total direct energy jobs to reach 34 million by 2050 for the global power sector only. In
comparison to 52 million new ongoing jobs (net of 24.3 million after considering job losses) form wind
energy, hydropower and solar energy (WWS) generators with transmission for the entire energy sector
(power, heat and transportation), as estimated by Jacobson et al. (2017). In comparison to Greenpeace
International (2015), which estimates energy jobs to reach 46.1 million by 2030, the results of this reserch
show total direct energy jobs at around 34 million by 2030. Additionally, Greenpeace International (2015)
estimate solar PV to contribute around 9.7 million jobs by 2030, while this research estimates total solar
PV jobs at around 18.7 million by 2030, mainly due to higher installed solar PV capacity in this research
resulting from a cost optimised energy mix. The methods of this research were adopted for the case of South
Africa, which is further highlighted in Oyewo et al. (2019) and the results were compared with Wright et
al. (2017) that adopt a different model for job estimation. Wherein, the decarbonised scenario and the least
cost scenario with ‘expected costs’ are estimated to create 331 thousand jobs and around 380-392 thousand
jobs by 2050, respectively (Wright et al., 2017). The results of Oyewo et al. (2019) indicate a comparable
share during the transition ranging from 408 thousand jobs in 2035 to 278 thousand jobs by 2050.
Nevertheless, both the results from Wright et al. (2017), as well as Oyewo et al. (2019) indicate a difference
of 100 thousand jobs or more between the conservative Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and the more
progressive Best Policy Scenario.

Most renewable energy and storage technologies are still in their initial phases of development and are
expected to grow rapidly, in proportion to their current lower levels of installations. From the point of view
of regional and national labour markets, the pattern varies across different renewable power generation and
storage technologies. As there is limited activity in some of the countries, rapid growth in others, steady
growth in some of the others, and a relatively mature industry elsewhere (IRENA, 2013). In this research,
as part of the BPS with an optimistic outlook all major regions worldwide are expected to reach 100% local
manufacturing capabilities by 2050. However, a conservation approach in which manufacturing shares and
export-import shares are expected to remain as in 2015 through the transition period until 2050 were
estimated. The major beneficial regions were China (with additional 523 thousand jobs) and Europe (204
thousand additional jobs) and to a lesser extent North America (46 thousand additional jobs). Whereas, rest
of the regions lose jobs and Sub-Saharan Africa is impacted the most with a loss of 603 thousand jobs by
2050. Globally, 334 thousand jobs are reduced by 2050 as compared to the optimistic scenario with self-
sustaining local manufacturing across the major regions. In general, it can be noticed that despite having
higher shares of imports for some regions, the total number of jobs created will still be higher as renewables
will create more localised O&M jobs as indicated earlier. Indeed, employment benefits of renewable energy
could go to countries that start early and build strong export markets. This aspect has been observed in the
results of some of the exporting regions presented in the earlier section. Nevertheless, from a long-term
perspective, the export-import shares across the different regions of the world are expected to stabilise and
self-sustaining economies are foreseen by 2050 (PwC, 2017; UNIDO, 2013). This regional and
technological variation in global job creation through the energy transition period is captured in Figure 13.
The regional distribution of jobs created in the 9 major regions through the transition period is shown in
Figure 13. The share of jobs in Europe remains quite stable in the range of 10% to 13% through the transition
period. Similarly, the share of jobs in Eurasia remains stable ranging from 2% to 3% of the global jobs
created through the transition. In case of the MENA region, the share of jobs increases from 3% in 2015 to
5% in 2035 and thereafter remain stable until 2050. A steady increase in the share of jobs from 6% in 2015
to 16% by 2050 is observed in the region of Sub-Saharan Africa, through the transition period. On the
contrary, the share of jobs in the SAARC region decreases slightly from about 20% in 2015 to 17% in 2050.
Whereas, a significant decrease in the share of jobs, from 39% in 2015 to 29% by 2050 is observed in
Northeast Asia. Both the SAARC and Northeast Asian regions have high economic growth rates currently,
which are expected to drop to lower levels and flatten out over the long-term as higher levels of development
are accomplished. In Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim, the share of jobs created are observed to increase
initially from 6% in 2015 to 10% in 2030, and thereafter a marginal decline to 9% in 2050. An initial
increase in the share of jobs from 9% in 2015 to 13% in 2025 is observed for North America, beyond which
the share decreases to 8% by 2050. Likewise, an initial increase from 5% in 2015 to 9% in 2020 is seen for
South America, further declining to 5% by 2050 thereafter. The primary reason for the initial rise in the
share of jobs during the initial periods of the transition across these regions is the massive capacity additions
that are expected in this period.

Figure 13: Regional distribution of jobs created (left) and technological distribution of jobs created (right)
during the energy transition from 2015 to 2050 globally.
The share of fossil fuels and nuclear power based jobs are observed to decline through the transition period,
from about 70% in 2015 to a mere 3% in 2050, as indicated in Figure 13. These jobs are primarily associated
with decommissioning of the remaining fossil and nuclear power plants that are approaching the end of
their lifetimes. Renewable energy accounts for around 80% of total direct energy jobs by 2050, in contrast
to just about 28% in 2015, as they emerge to be the least costing sources for power generation (Breyer et
al., 2017b; Ram et al., 2017a; Ram et al., 2018). The storage sector creates around 17% of the jobs in 2030,
with the steady ramp up in installations and cost competitiveness. Beyond 2030, they continue to maintain
a stable share of 17% of the jobs created until 2050, as shown in Figure 13. Renewable energy and storage
generate up to 92% of the total jobs by 2030, which is comparable to the results of Greenpeace International
(2015), in which renewable energy accounts for 86% of energy jobs by 2030. Transmission contributes just
a marginal share of jobs in the range of 0 to 1%, through the transition period. As the LUT Energy System
Transition model does not account for the additional distribution networks, these estimates are limited to
inter-regional transmission within countries of the different major regions. A significantly higher number
of jobs are currently associated with the transmission and distribution of power, e.g. an analysis of jobs in
the USA, showed around 500 thousand people were directly employed in the electricity transmission and
distribution sector in 2013 (U.S. Department of Energy, 2017). Hence, the potential transmission and
distribution jobs created during the energy transition period will be a lot higher with additional power
infrastructure needed.
A number of studies have demonstrated that the exploitation of renewable energy sources for electricity
production creates a greater number of jobs than that supplied by conventional power plants. That is for
every megawatt of installed capacity, it is estimated that renewable energy sources create between 1.7 to
14.7 times more jobs than natural gas based power generation plants and up to 4 times more jobs than those
supplied with coal fired power plants (Cameron and Zwaan, 2015). Renewable energy is already
contributing more towards job creation in many markets across the world. In the specific case of the USA,
solar power generating capacity represents only slightly more than 1% of the total power capacity, whereas
coal contributes around 26% to the power mix. However, solar workers are already twice as numerous,
compared to those in the highly automated coal industry (The Solar Foundation, 2017; U.S. Department of
Energy, 2017). Likewise, the number of direct jobs estimated in this study can fall short of the actual number
of total jobs including indirect and induced jobs created by the installation of renewable power generation
and storage technologies.
As the employment level increases during the global energy transition, the employment structure of the
energy sector may shift towards more highly qualified workers, particularly due to the relatively higher

level of qualifications required to manage renewable power generation and storage technologies (UNEP,
2008). This means that the energy transition will provide not only more jobs, but also better-qualified ones.
Many job opportunities will be created along the different categories of the value chain, as the results
presented in the earlier sections indicate. With an increasing requirement for individuals with diverse skill-
sets and talents foreseen in the near future, significant efforts in training and education will be needed to
provide the labour market with the necessary skills.
IRENA estimates that achieving the objective of universal access to modern energy services by 2030 could
create 4.5 million jobs in the off-grid renewables-based electricity sector (IRENA, 2013). There is growing
evidence that decentralised renewable energy solutions can create value locally in terms of both
employment and fostering economic growth (WRI, 2017). The benefits of transitioning to renewable energy
and electrifying rural communities extend far beyond better employment opportunities (Winkler et al.,
2011). For the world’s poorest people, increased energy access means more time for children to study after
school, greater productivity and income for families, and improved health outcomes (WRI, 2017). Although
rural electrification is not directly part of this research, creating good quality renewable energy jobs that
will enable poverty reduction in rural, underdeveloped regions is a crucial added benefit, which is often
overseen.
6. Conclusions
This research has affirmed the proposition that renewable energy technologies create more jobs than
conventional energy technologies and hence generate greater socioeconomic benefits. Additionally, this is
the first research estimating potential jobs created by storage technologies, enabled by the unique hourly
simulation capabilities of the LUT Energy System Transition model. As showcased in the previous sections,
developing renewable power generation and storage capacities can make a significant contribution to job
creation in the long run. The results indicate that job losses in fossil fuels and nuclear power sectors are
more than outweighed by the job creation in renewable power generation and storage sectors. This if further
emphasised in the Figure 13, with renewable energy contributing to around 80% of the jobs created by
2050.
The employment patterns in manufacturing and distribution of renewable energy and storage technologies
are similar to those in other capital investment goods industries. Manufacturing represents 16% of the total
jobs created globally and vary from 10% in Europe to 19% in Sub-Saran Africa for 2050. Quite different
are the patterns in construction and installation, as the work is mainly project based. Construction and
installation jobs have a share of 29% globally and vary from 20% in North America to 35% in Sub-Saharan
Africa in 2050. The patterns of employment in the operation and maintenance segment are indeed more
stable. As, operation and maintenance jobs have a 50% share globally and vary from 42% in Sub-Saharan
Africa to 64% in North America for 2050. Evidently, the total employment created tends to grow rapidly
when a significant number of new installations are implemented as shown by the regional as well as global
results, particularly in the period of 2020 to 2030. The electricity generation specific jobs at 897 jobs/TWhel
in 2015 rise up to 1091 jobs/TWhel in 2030 and then decline steadily to around 715 jobs/TWhel in 2050.
The decline in specific jobs is predominantly due to improving learning rates of technologies, which
account for higher level of efficiency in industrial processes. Higher productivity due to economic growth
further reduce the specific jobs, an effect which affects all technologies, not only renewable ones. Despite
the decline, the total jobs created compensate for the jobs lost in the conventional energy sector. This
indicates that even with increasing industrial efficiencies and continued learning for renewable energy and
storage technologies, a high volume of jobs can be expected in the long term. While for the case of South
Africa in a separate study (Oyewo et al., 2019), jobs were estimated using the methods of this research,
which showed that the specific jobs further decline with higher shares of conventional technologies in a

Current Policy Scenario (CPS) as compared to a Best Policy Scenario (BPS) with higher shares of
renewable energy.
Finally, it appears that there is considerable growth potential for renewables and renewable employment
creation in a variety of markets across the world, as shown in earlier sections. However, these markets have
to be triggered by stable and sensibly designed policy instruments and investment strategies, such as long-
term supporting schemes (e.g. feed-in tariffs) and a global approach towards climate protection (e.g. carbon
tax or cap and trade systems) in order to leverage existing opportunities from renewables (Ram et al.,
2017a). Additionally, a reform in energy prices and exorbitant subsidies for the fossil fuel and nuclear
sectors is much required (Coady et al., 2017). Although this study has suggested a favourable increase in
employment, a reorganisation of a country's power system could have far more significant benefits to its
entire economy. This indicates that more integrated assessments of job impacts are necessary as the
penetration of renewable energy increases in future energy systems.
Supplementary Material
The supplementary data associated with this article can be found in the online version at (link to be added)
Acknowledgements
The authors gratefully acknowledge the public financing of Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for
Innovation, for their support to the Finnish Solar Revolution project under the number 880/31/2016, as well
as support from the Energy Watch Group based on financing from Stiftung Mercator GmbH and Deutsche
Bundesstiftung Umwelt.
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Appendix
Table A1: Employment factors used in the estimation of jobs created during the energy transition from 2015
to 2050. (Abbreviations: Mfc. – Manufacturing, C&I – Construction and Installation, O&M – Operation
and Maintenance, Dcm. – Decommissioning)
Technologies
Mfc.
[Job-yrs
/MW]
C&I
[Job-yrs
/MW]
O&M
[Jobs/
MW]
Fuel
[Jobs/
PJ]
Dcm.
[Job-yrs
/MW]
Source
Wind onshore
4.70
3.20
0.30
0.72
Rutovitz et al., 2015
Wind offshore
15.60
8.00
0.20
2.99
Rutovitz et al., 2015
PV
Utility-scale
6.70
13.00
0.70
0.80
Rutovitz et al., 2015
PV
Rooftop
6.70
26.00
1.40
1.21
Solar Power Europe, 2015
Biomass
2.90
14.00
1.50
29.90
0.32
Rutovitz et al., 2015
Hydro Dam
3.50
7.40
0.20
2.22
Rutovitz et al., 2015
Hydro RoR
8.75
18.50
0.50
5.55
Assuming 2.5 times the
value as Hydro Dam
Geothermal
3.90
6.80
0.40
0.21
Rutovitz et al., 2015
CSP
4.00
8.00
0.60
1.33
Rutovitz et al., 2015
Biogas PP
2.90
14.00
2.25
29.90
0.32
Rutovitz et al., 2015,
1.5 times more O&M jobs
as Biomass PP
Waste-to-
energy
2.90
14.00
2.25
29.90
0.32
Rutovitz et al., 2015,
1.5 times more O&M jobs
as Biomass PP
Methanation
2.90
14.00
2.25
0.32
Rutovitz et al., 2015,
1.5 times more O&M jobs
as Biomass PP
Coal PP (Hard
Coal)
5.40
11.20
0.14
39.70
1.65
Rutovitz et al., 2015
Nuclear PP
1.30
11.80
0.60
0.001
(Jobs/
GWh)
0.95
(Jobs/
MW)
Rutovitz et al., 2015
OCGT
0.93
1.30
0.14
15.10
0.21
Rutovitz et al., 2015
CCGT
0.93
1.30
0.14
15.10
0.21
Rutovitz et al., 2015
Steam Turbine
0.93
1.30
0.14
0.21
Assuming same as Gas
Turbine
PtH
1.86
2.60
0.28
0.21
Assuming 2 times the value
as GT
ICE
0.93
1.30
0.21
15.10
0.44
Rutovitz et al., 2015,

1.5 times more O&M jobs
as GT
Gas Storage
0.00
0.12
0.01
0.11
Gov. of UK, 2015
PtG
1.86
2.60
0.28
0.21
Assuming 2 times the value
as GT
Battery large-
scale
16.90
10.80
0.40
0.80
0.5 times of prosumer
storage
Battery
prosumer
16.90
21.60
0.80
1.21
Derived from
USDOE, 2017
Pumped Hydro
Storage
7.00
14.80
0.40
4.44
Assuming 2 times the
values for Hydro Dam
A-CAES
8.45
10.80
0.40
0.40
Assuming 1/2 the values
for Batteries (large-scale)
Transmission
Employment factor with regard to investments –
5045 jobs/b€
The Brattle Group, 2011
The decommissioning employment factors are derived from (RFF, 2017), (Evonik, 2010) and (Oldham,
2009). Further details can be found in the Supplementary Material.
Table A2: Regional employment multipliers, based on labour productivity across the different regions used
in the estimation of jobs created during the energy transition from 2015 to 2050. (Abbreviations: EUR –
Europe, MENA – Middle East and North Africa, SSA – Sub-Saharan Africa, SAARC – South Asian
Association for Regional Cooperation, NEA – Northeast Asia, SEA – Southeast Asia, NA – North America,
SA – South America)
Regions
Regional Employment Multipliers
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
EUR
1.05
1.08
1.10
1.13
1.17
1.19
1.20
1.22
Eurasia
1.86
1.80
1.75
1.70
1.65
1.65
1.65
1.65
MENA
2.26
1.94
1.66
1.51
1.37
1.32
1.28
1.23
SSA
7.49
6.42
5.51
5.00
4.54
4.38
4.24
4.09
SAARC
5.18
3.99
3.07
2.56
2.13
2.00
1.88
1.76
NEA
2.22
1.89
1.60
1.50
1.41
1.42
1.42
1.43
SEA
2.52
2.20
1.93
1.77
1.63
1.58
1.52
1.47
NA
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
SA
3.14
2.69
2.31
2.10
1.90
1.84
1.78
1.72
The regional employment multipliers, which are based on labour productivity factors are derived from
(ILO, 2016) and (IMF, 2017). Further details can be found in the Supplementary Material and a description
is provided in the methods section.
Table A3: Share of local manufacturing and corresponding share of imports across the different regions
used in the estimation of jobs created during the energy transition from 2015 to 2050. (Abbreviations: EUR
– Europe, MENA – Middle East and North Africa, SSA – Sub-Saharan Africa, SAARC – South Asian
Association for Regional Cooperation, NEA – Northeast Asia, SEA – Southeast Asia, NA – North America,
SA – South America)
Regions
Share of Local Manufacturing [%]
Region of Import/
Import Shares [%]

2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
EUR
NA
SAARC
NEA
EUR
90
90
90
90
100
100
100
100
-
25
-
75
Eurasia
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
100
25
-
25
50
MENA
30
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
25
-
25
50
SSA
30
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
25
15
10
50
SAARC
70
80
90
100
100
100
100
100
25
15
-
60
NEA
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
-
-
-
-
SEA
90
90
90
90
100
100
100
100
30
-
30
40
NA
80
90
90
90
100
100
100
100
50
-
-
50
SA
50
60
70
80
90
100
100
100
25
50
-
25
The development of the shares of local manufacturing in the different regions during the energy transition
period from 2015 to 2050 and the corresponding regions of import, along with the shares of import are
based on data gathered from (Rutovitz et al., 2015), (UNIDO, 2013) and (PwC, 2017).
Vitae
Author 1
Name
Manish Ram
Institution
LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland
Biography
Conducting doctoral research at Solar Economy Group, LUT. Focusing
on socioeconomic impacts of energy transitions across the world.
Publications at
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Manish_Ram2/contributions
Author 2
Name
Arman Aghahosseini
Institution
LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland
Biography
Conducting doctoral research at Solar Economy Group, LUT. Focusing
on energy transitions in the MENA region and Americas and exploring
complementary technologies to enable the transition. Publications at
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Arman_Aghahosseini/contributions

Author 3
Name
Christian Breyer
Institution
LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland
Biography
Heading the Solar Economy Group at LUT. Many years of academic
experience in the energy domain. Focusing on energy transitions
towards full sustainability, in global-local perspective. Publications at
https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=39761029000