Conference Paper

Modelling Groundwater -Surface Water Interactions Under Climate Change Scenarios: insights from Axios Delta, Greece

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Conference Paper

Modelling Groundwater -Surface Water Interactions Under Climate Change Scenarios: insights from Axios Delta, Greece

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Abstract

Competing multi-sectorial water demands as well as demands for ecosystem services in coastal aquifers exert significant pressures to local water resources. Climate change is already altering spatiotemporal rainfall and runoff distributions intensifying the management challenge. In this context, this work is looking at the impact of water allocation practices on the aquifer of the Axios river delta under climate change impact scenarios. The area is characterized by agricultural activities, primarily water intensive rice cultivation. Urban water supply is supported by the exploitation of the local aquifer. Reduced precipitation is expected to increase the risk of salinisation of this coastal aquifer. At the same time, a decrease in river flow was recorded during the last decades. Numerical simulations of groundwater-surface water interactions are carried out to understand process dynamics. A drought scenario is simulated to assess the impact of climate change and the corresponding drought management response plan on the shifting fresh/saltwater interface. The drought response scenario involves banning irrigation and increasing groundwater abstraction. The groundwater model shows that flood irrigation forms a hydraulic barrier to saline intrusion. This type of groundwater model predictions can inform water resources management policies and examine the effectiveness of interventions to support sustainable socioeconomic activity while protecting environmental health.

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... With regard to interannual variation, winter months tend to be wet and summers dry. The mean annual precipitation is 663 ± 151 mm (Chalastra Station, British Antarctic Survey) (Kapetas et al., 2019). ...
... Such climatic impacts comprise pressures specific to the area and are considered in Section 3.1. Kapetas et al. (2018Kapetas et al. ( , 2019 showed that the coastal aquifer is also under risk of salinisation, particularly as climate change can alter river flow and rainfall patterns, and increase groundwater abstractions as a response. Sea level rise is also expected to shift the fresh-salt water interface. ...
... The discrimination of groundwater pollutants is also critical important for groundwater monitoring (Busico et al., 2018). Vulnerability maps form outputs of this type of integrated assessment tools that are based on numerical modelling (Kapetas et al., 2019;Kazakis et al., 2015Kazakis et al., , 2019Patrikaki et al., 2012). Additionally, decision support systems can contribute to the management of groundwater and surface water depended systems (Bournaris et al., 2015). ...
... The research, amongst others, investigates the impact of climate change on the Kalamas and Axios hydrosystems, an issue that is rather limited in its address within the literature. Focusing on the Axios River, very few scholars are identified to have worked on the thematic of water resources and climate change, e.g., Kapetas et al. [64] evaluated the way that climate change (use of CMIP5 climate model under the RCP4.5 scenario), by altering the river flow and precipitation patterns, could affect the coastal aquifers of the Axios basin in terms of salinization, or Poulos et al. [65] assessed the consequences of future sea-level rise (by using two customed scenarios of 1.0 and 0.5 m of sea-level rise) on the coastal plain of the Axios River. At the upstream part of the Axios River in North Macedonia (aka the Vardar River) there exists relevant literature; exceptions are Monevska [66], demonstrating precipitation and runoff decreases of 13.0% and 18.8%, respectively, by 2100 based on averaged ensemble values from four General Circulation Models (CSIRO/Mk2, HadCM3, ECHAM4/OPYC3, NCAR-PCM) scaled to six emission scenarios (SRES A1T, A1Fl, A1B, A2, B1, and B2) and Granados et al. [67], where the averaged values of the utilized Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Analysis (WAAPA) model triggered by eight model runs for the A2 scenario, four model runs for the B2 scenario, three model runs for the A1B scenario, and five model runs for each RCP-2, RCP-4, RCP-6 and RCP-8 scenario, demonstrated a decrease in the Vardar/Axios's river runoff of 23.0%. ...
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