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Studia commercialia Bratislavensia Volume 12; Number 41 (1/2019); pp. 24-33
DOI: 10.2478/stcb-2019-0003 ISSN 1339-3081
24
Competitiveness Outlook of the Automotive Industry
in the V4 Countries
1
Tatiana Hlušková
2
Abstract
The aim of the paper is to analyze the possibilities of the automotive industry develop-
ment in the V4 countries in the near future. Automotive is one of the most important
industries in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. However, it faces signi-
ficant challenges on both the demand and supply side. The shortage of qualified and
relatively cheap labour force, once the important comparative advantage of these coun-
tries is becoming a major problem in sustaining the competitiveness. Meanwhile the rise
of protectionist policies and trade tensions also pose a significant threat to the export-
oriented industry. The third important source of change is the technological advance-
ment. Industry 4.0, electromobility and self-driving cars are reshaping the whole busi-
ness model. In order to stay competitive, the V4 countries have to take all these factors
in account and try to adjust their policies to these changes in environment.
Key words
V4 countries, automotive industry, competitiveness
JEL Classification: L16, L62, F23
Received: 21.3.2019 Accepted: 30.5.2019
Introduction
Automotive industry plays an important role in the economies of the V4 countries
(the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia). However, the initial comparative
advantage of relatively low-cost and skilled labour force is quickly vanishing, as economic
growth and rising wages result in record-breaking low levels of unemployment and la-
bour shortages. The other threat is the rapidly evolving external environment in terms
of changes in production processes and business models. It will be therefore crucial for
the V4 countries to adjust to this development, otherwise their competitiveness might
be endangered.
Another factor which must be considered is the high dependence of the automotive
sector on exports. All the economies (except Poland) are extremely open and their fo-
reign trade is focused on the European Union (EU) and Germany in the first place. Ma-
jority of their car companies are affiliates of foreign investors with domestic companies
often lagging behind in terms of value added or position in global value chains. In the
light of ongoing automatisation, higher value added and innovations are even more im-
portant to keep the production and jobs from moving abroad.
1
VEGA No. 1/0546/17 (2017-2019): Impact of the geopolitical changes on enforcement of the EU strategic
foreign trade interests (with implications for the Slovak economy)
2
Ing. Tatiana Hlušková, PhD., University of Economics in Bratislava, Faculty of Commerce, Department of
International Business, Dolnozemská cesta 1, 852 35 Bratislava, Slovakia, E-mail: tatiana.hluskova@euba.sk
Studia commercialia Bratislavensia Volume 12; Number 41 (1/2019)
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1 Methodology
The aim of the paper is to analyze the possibilities of the automotive industry de-
velopment in the V4 countries in the near future in the light of changes in internal and
external environment. Many of these changes are not definite at the time of writing of
the paper, therefore there is a lack of data which might be used for an evidence-based
predictions. Analysis, synthesis and international comparison are the methods used in
this research paper. The data was gathered from secondary sources such as statistics
of international organisations, automotive companies or other research papers.
2 Results and Discussion
According to the OICA (Organisation Internationale des Constructeurs d´Automo-
biles) statistics, 18 907 697 cars were manufactured in the EU in 2017, 19.1% of them
in the V4 countries (OICA, 2018).
Automotive is one of the most important sectors in the European Union, as can be
seen in numerous indicators. It represents 6.1% of the EU employment, creates € 90.3
billion trade surplus and accounts for 27% of total R&D spending, which is the most
among all industries. The innovations also contributed to the decrease of 23.7% in CO2
emissions from car production in the last decade and to decrease of 31% in the water
consumption per car produced. It means that the environmental footprint of the industry
has substantially improved recently (ACEA, 2018). Yet the competitiveness of the auto-
motive sector is challenged by the disruptive innovations, which affect the product, the
business model and the very concept of transport as well.
The key disruptions in the automotive sector which will also lead to the changes in
skillsets of employees are new business models such as shared mobility and connecti-
vity-based services. New business models could add 30% to the revenues of the industry
(Adecco, 2018).
Autonomous driving is an innovation which affects not only the car production, but
together with car-sharing and ride-hailing platforms it changes also the overall meaning
of mobility. According to research, average car is used only 5% of the time and otherwise
it is parked (Kefferpütz, 2018). It is therefore possible that instead of owning a car,
people will gradually prefer renting or sharing a car with others. In the ideal case, 15%
of the cars sold might be autonomous in 2030. However, there are still many technolo-
gical, legislative and ethical issues to be solved. The MIT Moral Machine research (Awad
et al., 2018) presents different scenarios which might occur during the ride of autono-
mous vehicle. Its aim is to gather a human perspective on moral decisions made by
machine intelligence, based on solving of moral dilemmas where a car has to choose the
“lesser evil” between the two given situations. The respondent of the survey chooses
the situation which he or she deems morally more acceptable. Any generalisation of the
outcomes might be difficult, though: ethical decisions may vary greatly among different
cultures. Collectivist cultures like China and Japan are less likely to spare the young over
the old which might be a result of higher respect of the elderly people in these countries.
Studia commercialia Bratislavensia Volume 12; Number 41 (1/2019)
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Other factors causing differences in moral opinions of countries include strength of in-
stitutions, level of economic inequality or geographical proximity of countries (Hao,
2018). It is therefore evident that the spread of autonomous vehicles must be based on
the interdisciplinary approach.
The climate change poses a serious threat for many industries and automotive is
one of the most impacted. The whole transport sector is responsible for 22% of overall
emissions in the EU and they have even grown by 20% since 1990 (the overall EU
emissions fell by 22% during this period). The EU environmental legislation is strict when
it comes to CO2 emissions: compared to the 2021 level, new cars would have to reduce
emissions by 15% on average by 2025 and by 37.5% by 2030. Less strict targets are
prepared for carmakers with share of zero- and low-emission vehicles higher than 15%
in 2025 and 30% in 2030. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Asso-
ciation (ACEA), these targets are highly challenging for the industry. The target for 2021
was set at fleet average of 95g/km (Morgan, 2018). Many countries employ stricter
environmental legislation than on the EU level – France and UK will ban combustion
engines by 2040, all new cars will have to be zero-emission in Norway by 2025 and
countries like Denmark, Ireland, Spain and China have set targets for electric car sales.
This is especially important in the case of China as the largest car market in the world
and the major importer of European cars. Moreover, the spread of the Smart City
concept along with the principles of sustainable development will result in a more pro-
minent role of cities in shaping of mobility besides the national legislation.
With these new measures adopted, car companies have sped up the development
of electric cars. The European Commission along with other stakeholders such as mem-
ber states, European Investment Bank and industry and innovation actors have launched
European battery alliance in 2017. At least 10 to 20 ‘gigafactories’ are needed to cover
the EU demand. The main aim of the alliance is to create a manufacturing value chain
producing sustainable battery cells (European Commission, 2019). Chinese companies
produced 43% of electric vehicles in 2016 and the country also has the largest number
of these vehicles in use (Kefferpütz, 2018). Electric cars need batteries and the more of
these cars will be sold, the more important will batteries be for the automakers. Currently
China, South Korea and Japan are the leaders in this segment.
To sum up, the car of the future will be sustainable, smart and shared (Kefferpütz,
2018).
As for the geopolitical threats, the two main are possible US tariffs and Brexit. The
USA account for relatively small share of exports from the CEE (Central and Eastern
European) countries. According to UBS, American market would shrink by 12% in case
of 25% tariffs on car imports (Economist, 2019). The US government has 90 days to act
after the Commerce Department releases a report on automotive industry and national
security on February 17, which might advise to impose tariffs on European cars (Domm,
2019).
It is difficult to predict the impact of Brexit on exports as the final agreement be-
tween the EU and UK has not been reached yet. According to some estimates Slovakia
– for which the UK is the fifth biggest export partner – might lose 7 500 jobs in case of
hard Brexit (SITA, 2018). However, CEE countries can look for other markets such as
Japan, which has recently signed a free trade agreement with the EU. Another country
with potential for strengthening of the trade ties is China, however, trade deficits of
Studia commercialia Bratislavensia Volume 12; Number 41 (1/2019)
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CEE countries remain large and Chinese investments in this region are limited (Baláž
& Královičová, 2017). Chinese car market, the largest in the world, contracted for the
first time in more than 20 years in 2018. 28.1 mil. cars were sold, decline of 2.8%
compared to previous year. In December 2018 alone, the sales plummeted by 13%
(Economist, 2019).
2.1 Automotive investment in the V4 countries
There were 227 automobile production facilities in the EU in 2017, 33 of which
located in the V4. However this combined number is still less than 43 in Germany and
the same number as in the UK (ACEA, 2018).
The production portfolio among the V4 countries is rather diversified. Out of 16
plants in Poland, only 2 of them are producing passenger cars. On the other hand, all
four Slovak factories are focused on this type of vehicles. Production in Poland is mainly
focused on buses and engines, but the overall structure of industry is the most diversified
(it is the only country producing light commercial vehicles as well). Slovakia has the least
diversified portfolio with only one plant (Kia) producing engines and all four factories
focused at the passenger cars. Production in the Czech Republic is focused mainly on
passenger cars and engines, but some of the companies manufacture also buses and
heavy-duty vehicles. Hungary produces passenger cars, engines and buses as well.
Automotive industry is one of the most integrated into global value chains. Slovakia
has the highest share of regional value chain trade (involving regional production part-
ners) on the total value chain trade in manufacturing and the second highest share in
the total economy. In both cases the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland placed in the
highest four spots among the EU 28 countries (Stöllinger, 2018).
Table 1 shows basic indicators of the V4 countries concerning production and sales
of cars. Even though Slovakia is the smallest country in terms of inhabitants and the
number of plants, it is by far the most productive with the highest number of cars pro-
duced per 1 000 inhabitants in the world and per direct automotive manufacturing em-
ployee. On the other hand, automotive industry is relatively least important for the Polish
economy.
Reasons for the original automotive investment in Central and Eastern Europe stem
from the comparative advantages of the region: relatively low-cost but skilled labour
force and a gradually built supply chain (Automotive Logistics, 2018). However, the pic-
ture is changing: with unemployment rates at the record-breaking lows, the region is
coping with the shortage of the skilled labour. There is also a positive aspect of the
situation as the investments are no longer aimed only at assembling but some of them
also at research and development.
Out of the 4 countries, Slovakia had the highest share of automotive industry on
total capital expenditure (8.34%) in 2017. On the contrary, the lowest share (2.38%)
was in Poland. Share in the Czech Republic was 4.43% and 3.88% in Hungary (Chlopčík,
2018).
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Table 1 Main indicators of the automotive industry in the V4 countries
Source: ACEA, 2018, p. 10-32, ČTK, 2018
Indicator Czech
Republic Hungary Poland Slovak
Republic
Share of auto-
motive industry
on GDP (%,
2017)
9 10 3.8 13
Direct automo-
tive manufac-
turing employ-
ment (active
population ra-
tio, %, 2016)
3.22 2.04 1.44 2.60
Direct automo-
tive manufac-
turing employ-
ment (number
of employees,
2016)
168 408 92 816 187 334 71 240
Motor vehicle
production
(2017) 1 424 300 506 000 689 700 1 025 000
Motor vehicle
production per
direct automo-
tive manufac-
turing em-
ployee (2016)
8.0 5.7 3.6 14.6
Automobile as-
sembly and en-
gine production
plants (2017)
8 5 16 4
Motor vehicle
registrations
(2017) 301 805 142 703 577 293 108 279
New passenger
car registra-
tions per 1 000
inhabitants
(2017)
26 12 13 18
Motorisation
rates per 1 000
inhabitants
(2016)
570 394 672 455
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Nevertheless, the situation varies greatly among countries: Hungary is attracting
multiple investments ranging from electric motor manufacturing to testing area for au-
tonomous vehicles and seems to be the most prepared for the upcoming and ongoing
changes in environment. Two companies, Horiba Mira and ZalaZone want to provide
testing zones for autonomous vehicles. The latter one received funding from the gover-
nment and claims that its test track will have 5G network and enable prototype tests as
well as development of serial products.
Jaguar Land Rover will not create an engineering office in its plant in Nitra, Slova-
kia, but in Budapest instead. The company will employ 100 engineers supporting the
European supply chain management, focusing on developing new models. It is the first
JLR's office of this kind in continental Europe. According to Péter Szijjártó, Foreign Mi-
nister of Hungary, the choice of location was driven by the lowest corporate tax in Eu-
rope, tax benefits for research and development activities and high level of technical
education (Daily News, 2018b).
Mercedes-Benz is building its globally first full-flex factory at its existing site in
Kecskemét with costs up to 1 bil. €. The factory will allow for production of multiple
vehicle architectures on the same assembly line, including compact cars, sedans and
electric cars as well. The plant will also be carbon neutral and it will employ the concept
of Factory 56, which Mercedes-Benz labelled as the car factory of the future, which
means it will be digital, flexible and green (Daimler, 2018).
Audi factory in Györ is a main electric motor-manufacturing plant of the company.
It uses modular islands, which is different from traditional assembly lines: robots and
stations are not linked together and there is no predefined assembly sequence. There-
fore, this solution allows for greater flexibility of the production process. The motors will
be used in the first fully-electric model of the company, Audi e-Tron. The factory will
also include research and development centre (Daily News, 2018a).
BMW has chosen Hungarian city of Debrecen to build its new 1 bil. € factory with
production capacity of 150 000 cars a year. The plant will employ more than 1 000
workers. Infrastructure, logistics connections and supplier network were among the
main reasons for this decision. Košice, Slovakia was also among the main contenders
for this investment (BMW Group, 2018).
The role of automotive sector n Hungary is increasing: for the first time, the country
placed in world top 20 automotive exporters in 2017. Share of automotive on the Hun-
garian industrial output is 28.8%. In 2017, production consisted of more than 500 000
cars and 2.5 mil. engines. The industry is heavily export oriented: only 8.3% of the
output stays in the home market (Automotive Logistics, 2018). Hungarian government
actively promotes the development of the automotive industry by building new infras-
tructure or changes in the legal environment favouring autonomous vehicle testing. This
legislation might be an important comparative advantage for Hungary, unless other
countries will follow this example.
Besides autonomous vehicles and automatization, electric cars and batteries are
the third important innovative sector. In Europe, battery plants are in Sweden and Po-
land, where LG Chem plans to build a largest lithium-ion battery plant in Europe, able
to supply 250 000 cars annually (Perez, 2019). Mercedes-Benz is another company which
will build a battery factory in Poland, and also in Germany (Autonews, 2019). The third
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major carmaker is Tesla which also eyes Europe for its Gigafactory producing batteries.
Hungary has a potential to be an important producer of batteries for electric vehicles
with Samsung, Shinhueng Sec and GS Yuasa companies all announcing their plans to
build their factories in the country.
One of the main problems of Slovak economy is that it is divided between affiliates
of foreign investors with higher value added and the second sector, which comprises of
several large Slovak companies and small and medium-sized enterprises, which form the
majority of firms. Nevertheless, their value added is generally lower than that of foreign
affiliates (Kittová & Steinhauser, 2016). Another issue is that as an extremely open
economy, Slovakia is heavily reliant on exports. In 2017, road vehicles accounted for
27% of the overall exports (OECD, 2019). Share of car production on the overall indus-
trial production was 44% in 2017. UK is the third most important trading partner in the
EU for Slovakia. Hard Brexit would certainly have the most serious impact on the auto-
motive industry – every seventh car produced is exported there. It is even the second
biggest market for KIA factory. Cars make up 40% of the overall Slovak exports to the
UK (Poracký, 2019).
In terms of attracting new investment, Slovakia is often losing out to other V4
countries, notably Hungary, as show the examples of BMW and Jaguar Land Rover en-
gineering office.
2017 was a record year for automotive companies in the Czech Republic. Pro-
duction, sales and exports have risen by 5.2%, 7% and 6%, respectively. Number of
employees has grown by 6% and average wage in automotive by 7%. Škoda plant has
the highest share on production with 60.7%. Production of buses has grown by 5.5%,
production of heavy duty vehicles increased by 11.7% (Sdružení automobilového
průmyslu, 2018).
Production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in Poland grew by 0.6%
in 2017, compared to previous year. Even though there are 16 production plants in
Poland, FCA factory accounts for 39% of the overall production. As for the commercial
vehicles alone, production has risen by 39.2% in 2017. Growth in bus production was
nearly flat in 2017 – only 0.3%. When it comes to production of automotive parts and
accessories, Poland lost the position of regional leader to the Czech Republic recently.
The employment in automotive grew by 12.8% and wages by 7.1% in 2017. In the
same year, exports of industry grew by 8.2% and accounted for 16.2% of total Polish
export (Polish Automotive Industry Association, 2018).
Even though the situation of the automotive sector in the countries seems to be in
a good shape, it might not stay this way for long. According to Ivan Hodáč, former
Secretary-General of ACEA, situation in automotive industry in V4 is good, but inves-
tment in human resources is vital to maintain it. Cooperation and improved communica-
tion within the group but also with the EU institutions is strategically important (Rybecký,
2018). As for the human resources and employment, Slovakia is the most vulnerable to
technological changes, which threaten nearly 70% of jobs – the most among OECD
(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries. The third of the
jobs is threatened by automatization. José Ángel Gurría, Secretary General of OECD
noted that the success of the current economy model based on assembly plants might
be coming to an end and the country must focus on improving the skills of students and
employees (TASR, 2019)
Studia commercialia Bratislavensia Volume 12; Number 41 (1/2019)
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Conclusions
New technologies might create new jobs, but they also require new skillsets. It is
positive that the new investment in CEE automotive is largely compliant with the Indus-
try 4.0 principles. On the other hand, Industry 4.0 implementation is reflected in the
higher levels of automatization, which in general means lower labour intensity – this is
relevant at least for the workers with the current skillsets. Even though the fourth in-
dustrial revolution creates new jobs, the difference between skills needed for the posi-
tion of e. g., data scientist (new position) and assembly worker (current position) is
large. Therefore the retraining of the employees might not be feasible in many cases
and unemployment will actually rise.
The problem when it comes to the V4 countries is that development of new
concepts and products is happening in the parent companies and it depends on their
decision if they will assign this research and subsequent production also to their affiliates
in other states. As the global value chains in automotive industry are extremely complex,
these decisions will be crucial also for the networks of subcontractors, as there are hun-
dreds of these companies in the V4 countries. Another important factor is that many
components used in cars with combustion engines will not be used in electric cars. On
the other hand, electric vehicles contain many new parts which also puts a pressure on
subcontractors to adjust their product portfolios.
The lack of diversification stays the most serious problem, notably in the Czech
Republic and Slovakia. Shortage of skilled workers might lead to the employee fluctua-
tion among the companies or inflow of foreign workers, even though the unemployment
in Slovakia is still relatively high at 5% due to uneven allocation of investment among
the regions. Recent information about downsizing in Volkswagen and KIA plants will
certainly ease the pressure on labour marker to some extent.
As shows the example of internet banking applications or contactless payments,
Slovakia is a suitable market for testing of various innovations. However, Hungary seems
to be the most successful country in attracting innovative investment.
Among the V4 countries, automotive sector is the most important relative to the
overall economic output in Slovakia. However, it seems that the country starts to lag
behind other V4 states in terms of new investment and its innovativeness. The biggest
challenge for the country is to make a transition from “Assembled in Slovakia” to actually
“Made in Slovakia”.
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Časť Slovákov môže mať problém, prácu im zoberú roboty.
Retrieved
February 10, 2019, from https://ekonomika.sme.sk/c/22049369/oecd-tretina-pra-
covnych-miest-na-slovensku-je-ohrozena-automatizaciou.html#ixzz5f8muuUkn
