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Changes in the Dynamics and Demographic Structure of the Romanian Rural Population: An Overview of the Post-communist Period

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Abstract

Currently, Romania’s rural area is undergoing a restructuring process, acquiring new demographic dimensions and characteristics. Since the first decade of the XXI century, the general dynamics of rural population was negative, as a consequence of the severe ageing, decreasing birth-rates and the upsurge of external migration. After decades of rural exodus, the urban-rural flow has been increasing in the past few years. Despite this trend, it would be premature to speak of a transition to urban exodus, in fact the town is expanding over its rural neighbourhood, and in some cases, sustaining the development of residential ensembles and tourist sites. In this context, some of the rural LAUs near large cities evolved into residential areas, the investments therein contributing to their economic and social prosperity, which made them attractive, also improving people’s standard of living. At the other end of the spectrum are the villages located at great distances from the major cities, geographically isolated or devoid of modern infrastructure, where living conditions are quite precarious. The study aims to analyze population dynamics over 1992–2016 period, changes in territorial distribution of population and in demographic structures using different indicators (population structure by large age groups, Vitality Index, Demographic Dependency Index, Labour Renewal Index, General Activity Rate).

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... The evolution of the inter-communal relations at the rural-rural, rural-urban/urbanrural levels, as well as the way of rural settlements set-up, made the demographic size vary greatly [95,96]. The 32 rural LAUs (local administrative units) /communes range from a minimum of 2674 inhabitants (inh.) in Dărăs , ti-Ilfov to a maximum of 18,477 inh. in Chiajna. ...
... An important phenomenon Romania's large cities are facing is the centre to the outskirts and blocks-of-flats to one-family dwellings or new residential districts migration [42,97]. Thus, changing the spatial distribution of population according to its socio-economic status (residential suburbanisation) is reversing the traditional social and spatial patterns of the communist city characterised by the declining of the socio-economic status of population with distance from the centre [12,42,96,98]. ...
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Urban development and changing the patterns of industry and agriculture had caused the foremost spatial and functional transformations of the post-communist period in Romania. These changes have resulted in increased land consumption, often including the reuse of abandoned or non-residential built-up areas (e.g., industrial, agricultural). By integrating spatial and statistical data, the current analysis has revealed as key features: spatial shrinkage, fragmentation, functional diversification, tertiarization and change of patterns. Using a functional change matrix, five main (re)use types have been identified and quantified: maintenance, conversion, replacement, abandonment, and demolition. Overall, between 1990 and 2018, over 50% functional losses have been recorded.
... The evolution of demographic behavior in the Central and Eastern European area, which bears the imprint of the legacy of communist-type political systems, occupies a distinct place in the scientific literature that studies the phenomenon of depopulation and its consequences. Thus, Andrei and Branda (2015) analyze the consequences of pro-natalist policies in communist Romania on subsequent demographic evolution, and Mitrică et al. (2019) highlight the main changes in the dynamics and demographic structure of the rural population. A similar analysis is made by Nikitović (2022) regarding the regional particularities of depopulation in Serbia, while Nancu, Guran-Nica and Persu (2010), and Nancu, Persu and Damian (2011) focus their analysis on the evolution and territorial distribution of the Romanian rural population, respectively on the demographic aging affecting rural communities in contemporary Romania. ...
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Depopulation is a characteristic phenomenon for the Central and Eastern European space that gained in amplitude especially after 1990 in the context of political-ideological changes that affected the states of this region and that also led to changes in demographic behavior. These consisted, on the one hand, in the abolition of pro-natalist policies from the communist period and, on the other hand, in the intensification of emigration flows in connection with the economic and social discrepancies and the free movement of persons. In this context, the paper analyzes the evolution of Romania’s population in a global and European context, the factors that determined its sharp population decline, as well as its economic and social consequences. Also, the demographic characteristics of Romania and future trends regarding the peculiarities and dynamics of the Romanian population are highlighted.
... 126). As expected by economic models, negative rural growth rates are associated with geographical isolation and industrial decline, which drive out-migration and decreased fertility rates [20]. Many rural locales have experienced population loss of 50% or more and in some counties, the number of disappeared village has continued to grow since 1992, particularly in the northeast (Botoşani) and Transylvania (Mures , , Alba, and Hunedoara) [21] (p. ...
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... Subsequently, to identify the impact of natural increase over the population change and hints about its future trajectory, the Vitality Index was calculated as the ratio between live newborns and deaths. Following this model, values over 100% mean that the population tends to grow (if migration does not influence the process), while values below 100% indicate a sign of demographic decline in the medium and long term (Mitricȃ et al., 2019). ...
Chapter
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... The following category in terms of population dynamics is that of Bistrița-Năsăud, Constanța and Bucharest counties, which had a dynamic between -0.01 and 0.01% in the analysed interval, with Constanța and Bucharest having a more intense economic development. At the same time, Constanța County, which has a developed economy due to the port activity, is both the main economic centre of the South-East Development Region as well as home to a large percentage of the urban population 30,34 . ...
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... In this paper, the distribution of VC is territorially correlated with the distribution of the elderly, as one of the categories of populations targeted by the 2 nd stage of the VP and with the degree of accessibility by road. The elderly population registered high shares (over 30%) in the rural settlements located in the southern half of Romania, as well as in the western ones, especially within the mountain areas 24,23 . Taking into consideration these essential aspects, we issue the observation that the mentioned areas are particularly poorly covered by VCs, as shown in Fig. 2: the VCs are only in towns (e.g. ...
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... In Romania, according to Law 351/2001(Romanian Parliament 2001b, an urban settlement has to have values below 25%, a threshold that is fulfilled by only 74% of small towns. The highest weights of over 50% employment in agriculture are only observed in 5% of small towns, which present The activity rate demonstrates the potential of the labour force (Mitrică et al. 2019), which is relevant for understanding town performance and its socio-economic profile (Servillo et al. 2014b;Hamdouch et al. 2017). The average value for small towns is 63.4%, which is lower than the national average (67.3%) and the urban average (67.9%). ...
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de urbanizare. Perioada comunistă versus perioada postcomunistă Până la mijlocul secolului al XX-lea, cu tot progresul industriei, România a rămas o ţară cu o structură preponderent rurală, cu un nivel de urbanizare scăzut (23,4% în 1948), iar particularităţile geografice ale teritoriului său, cât şi istoria frământată a acestei părţi a continentului european au făcut ca societatea românească să-şi menţină trăsăturile predominant rurale. Odată cu procesul de industrializare treptată a României din perioada interbelică, după cum era şi firesc, s-a accentuat şi dezvoltarea urbană, manifestată, în primul rând, prin creşterea numărului de oraşe, de la 119 în anul 1912 la 142 în 1930 şi 152 în anul 1948. Aceasta a dus, între 1912 şi 1948, la creşterea populaţiei oraşelor de 1,8 ori, cu un spor mediu anual de 45 000 persoane. Dacă în 1912 Bucureştiul era singurul oraş mare al României, cu peste 341 000 locuitori, până în 1948 acestuia i s-au mai adăugat oraşele Cluj-Napoca, Iaşi, Galaţi şi Timişoara, cu peste 100 000 fiecare, capitala însăşi depăşind 1 mil. de locuitori. Populaţia urbană a crescut de la 16% în 1912 la 23,4% în 1948, reprezentând, pentru jumătatea secolului XX, totuşi, un nivel redus de urbanizare. Erau judeţe în care proporţia populaţiei orăşeneşti se situa sub 10% (Gorj, Sălaj, Bistriţa-Năsăud), iar cele mai urbanizate judeţe (Brăila, Constanţa, Cluj, Braşov, Galaţi, Sibiu) aveau între 28 şi 35% populaţie urbană (Trebici şi colab., 1986). În a doua jumătate a secolului al XX-lea au loc modificări radicale în procesul de dezvoltare economică şi socială a României, în mare parte fiind o consecinţă a politicilor ce au fost urmate în acest domeniu. Aceste modificări s-au produs cu intensitate maximă atât în perioada 1950–1960/1962, care a marcat trecerea de la economia capitalistă la cea socialistă, puternic centralizată şi planificată cât şi în cea începută după 1989, de trecere de la economia socialistă la economia de piaţă. Între 1950–1989, modelul dezvoltării României, ca şi în cazul celorlalte ţări comuniste central-europene, s-a bazat pe industrializarea extensivă, secondată de procesul de urbanizare explozivă şi de sistematizare a întregului teritoriu naţional. Sistemul urban s-a consolidat în deceniile 7, 8 şi 9 ale secolului trecut, prin crearea unei structuri echilibrate la nivel judeţean. Industrializarea a avut, în etapa respectivă, un rol decisiv în dezvoltarea urbană a ţării, iar oraşul industrial a constituit tipul reprezentativ de aşezare urbană, cu o evoluţie ascendentă. Ca urmare, în 1986 peste jumătate din populaţia ţării locuia deja în oraşe.
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A lecture delivered before the Eugenics Society in 1937. The author warned against the widespread assumption that a stationary or declining population would be an unmitigated social and economic good. According to his theoretical framework a declining population would lead to a lower level of effective demand lower aggregate savings less capital accumulation and ultimately a higher level of unemployment.
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