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Migration and Demographic changes: The Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina

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The focus of this study is an analysis of forced and voluntary migration and their impact on demographic changes in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Bosnia and Herzegovina is a country with a dynamic spatial, economic and demographic development. Until 1992 migration of population in Bosnia were mainly caused by economic factors. However, in the beginning of the 1990s and disintegration of Yugoslavia major political changes resulted in massive forced migration. The 1992-1995 war, including forced migrations, resulted in intensive demographic changes in Bosnia and Herzegovina while the postwar emigration from this country was mostly affected by economic, social and political factors. In this paper one tends to underline the most significant outcome of forced and postwar voluntary migration and to determine a degree of negative demographic trends in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the postwar period.
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European Journal of Geography Volume 9, Number 4:75-86, December 2018
©Association of European Geographers
European Journal of Geography-ISSN 1792-1341 © All rights reserved 75
MIGRATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES: THE CASE OF BOSNIA AND
HERZEGOVINA
Alma KADUSIC
University of Tuzla, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics,
Department of Geography, Tuzla, Bosnia and Herzegovina
alma.kadusic@untz.ba
Alija SULJIC
University of Tuzla, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics,
Department of Geography, Tuzla, Bosnia and Herzegovina
alija.suljic@untz.ba
Abstract
The focus of this study is an analysis of forced and voluntary migration and their impact on
demographic changes in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Bosnia and Herzegovina is a country with
a dynamic spatial, economic and demographic development. Until 1992 migration of
population in Bosnia were mainly caused by economic factors. However, in the beginning of
the 1990s and disintegration of Yugoslavia major political changes resulted in massive forced
migration. The 1992-1995 war, including forced migrations, resulted in intensive
demographic changes in Bosnia and Herzegovina while the post-war emigration from this
country was mostly affected by economic, social and political factors. In this paper one tends
to underline the most significant outcome of forced and post-war voluntary migration and to
determine a degree of negative demographic trends in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the post-
war period.
Keywords: migration, political changes, forced migration, economic migration, Bosnia and
Herzegovina, demographic changes.
1. INTRODUCTION
In Bosnia and Herzegovina and other Southeastern European Countries migration is
perceived as an important factor of a demographic change and the key driver of population
development (Malnar and Malnar, 2015). It is also considered to be one of the key
depopulation factors in the Western Balkan Countries (Lukic et al., 2012). Migrations have
been an essential issue in the history of the Balkans and the current migration situation is still
considerably affected by history (Bonifazi and Mamolo, 2004).
Zubiashvili (2014) claims that political instability accelerates migration processes while
Lukić and Anđelković Stoilković (2017) believe that there is a correlation between migration
and socio-economic processes. In the Western Balkan Countries migration processes have
been influenced by political factors for centuries but the most dynamic migration processes
were caused by disintegration of the former Yugoslavia in 1991 (Malnar and Malnar, 2015).
Among the countries of the region, Bosnia and Herzegovina was the most affected by forced
migration. Although migration from this country, primarily to the Western Europe, took place
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long before 1992 and was caused by economic factors, there was an immense territorial
redistribution of population during the 1992-1995 war within and outside the borders of
Bosnia and Herzegovina. Pursuant to Vallador Alvarez (2015), Lukic Tanovic et al. (2014),
Lukic et al. (2012) and Valenta, Ramet (2011) during the 1992-1995 war half of the pre-war
Bosnian population was displaced while about 1.2 million residents fled from Bosnia and
Herzegovina.
Not only did forced migration cause demographic changes but it also gave rise to
numerous political, social and economic issues in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Forced and
voluntary migration caused depopulation, changes in sex and age composition, enhanced
aging process, ethnic homogenization of certain regions etc. along with numerous economic
problems such as low life standard, decline in economic growth rate, unemployment,
unfavorable social conditions etc. Consequently, adverse economic factors in Bosnia and
Herzegovina have intensified the post-war economic emigration.
On the basis of the above mentioned the main purpose of this paper is to identify voluntary
and forced migration trends in Bosnia and Herzegovina and determine their effects on
demographic development of this country. Moreover, the paper seeks to identify current
demographic trends and an extent of depopulation processes in Bosnia and Herzegovina in
order to understand and plan future demographic development efficiently.
2. METHODOLOGY
Teka et al. (2017) and Malnar, Malnar (2015) hold that migration represent processes which
are influenced by different internal and external factors and represent the most dynamic
component of population movement and the most complex research subject in terms of
content and methodology. A research of the forced and voluntary migration and demographic
changes of Bosnian population comprised three phases: collecting statistical data, a statistical
analysis of the data and their interpretation. The research involved various statistical
techniques among which the most outstanding were measures of central tendency and
correlation analysis, applied to determine spatial relation and patterns of demographic
processes in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
To determine to what extent demographic variables related to the population of Bosnia
and Herzegovina are associated, including the causal relation between natural
increase/decrease rates and other demographic indicators of population dynamics, we
performed a correlation analysis - a statistical technique for determination of causal relation
between variables (Rogerson, 2001; Osborne, 2010). Preliminary statistical analyses were
performed to make sure that there is not any violation of the assumptions of normality,
linearity and homoscedasticity. A preliminary assessment of normality applied Kolmogorov-
Smirnov and Shapiro-Wilk’s test (Pallant, 2011; Lantz et al., 2016). Since the null hypothesis
of data is rejected in this research one applied a non-parametric test of Spearman’s Rank
Order Correlation.
Measures of central tendency were applied for calculation of mean and median age of
Bosnian population. According to Spence and Owens (2011), these measures provide useful
quantitative information about typical and atypical values in a set of data and are a consisting
part of descriptive statistics methodology. Demographic trends in Bosnia and Herzegovina
after 1995 were determined by different demographic indicators, such as birth rate, fertility
rate, mortality and natural population change rates, average age, median age, aging index,
vitality index and other indicators. These demographic indicators served as the basis for
determination of the potential vitality and bio-dynamics of Bosnian population. Geographical
distribution of demographic indicators within Bosnia and Herzegovina was shown by maps
created with Qgis application.
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Changes in the total number of Bosnian population between two censuses were calculated
as a difference between the two censuses divided by the number of inhabitants from the
previous census (Wertheimer-Baletić, 1999). Birth rates were determined on the basis of the
number of live-born children within the total population. A general fertility rate of Bosnian
population was determined as a ratio of the number of live births and the number of women
between 15 and 49 years of age. The mortality rate was calculated as a ratio of the number of
deceased and the total population of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the natural
increase/decrease rate was determined on the basis of a difference between the number of
born and the number of deceased citizens (Nejašmić, 2005).
The age coefficient is determined with the percentage (%) of population of 65 year of age
and older in the total Bosnian population. To determine a degree of vitality and potential bio-
dynamics of Bosnian population one applied vitality index to evaluate relations between
general fertility rate, general mortality rate and the age index. Pursuant to Wertheimer-Baletić
(1999), this index represents a synthesis between indicators of natural increase rates and age
structure of population.
3. BACKGROUND
3.1 Primary causes of migration processes in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina is located in the western part of the Balkan Peninsula. Before 1992 it
was a consisting part of the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. Today, as an
independant state, it covers the surface of 51,209.2 km2 and has about 3.5 milion inhabtants.
It is administratively divided into two entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and
the Republic of Srpska and Brčko District of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Migration flows in Bosnia and Herzegovina are a reflection of its dynamic economic,
political and social circumstances and they are a cause of numerous demographic changes
(Pobrić, 2002). Three migration phases of Bosnian population have stood out in the second
half of the 20th and the begining of the 21st century: a labor force emigration from the former
Yugoslavia caused by economic factors, a forced migration in the 1992-1995 period caused
by political circumstances and a post-war migration motivated by political and economic
factors.
A weak economic development of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the former Yugoslavia and
its economy based on mining and agriculture forced Bosnian population to emigrate to
developed countries of the Western and the Central Europe. During the former Yugoslavia,
emigration was especially intensified in the 1960s due to a recession of Yugoslavian
economy. In the couple of following decades i.e. before 1991, about 234,213 or 5.4% of
Bosnian citizens emigrated looking for a temporary employment in abroad (DZS, 1994).
Bosnia and Herzegovina is a multiethnic and a multireligious state with three constitutive
ethnic groups (Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs). A complex ethnic and religious structure is a key
factor of political instability of this area and political divisions on ethnic and religious bases
were especially intensified in the end of the 20th century.
The results of censuses conducted in 1991 and 2013 indicated an outstanding
correspondence of a national and confessional identity of Bosnian population (Cvitković,
2017). In 1991 there were 4,377,033 inhabitants in Bosnia and Herzegovina, out of which
43.4% were Bosniaks, 31.2% Serbs, 17.3% Croats and 8.1% others. Out of the total number
of inhabitants that year 42.8% inhabitants were Muslims, 30.1% were Orthodox, 17.6% were
Catholics and 3.7% other religions.
Forced migrations in the 1992-1995 period caused changes in the ethnic and religious
composition of Bosnian population and an ethnic homogenization within Bosnia and
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Herzegovina. In 2013 Bosnia and Herzegovina had 3,531,159 inhabitants, out of which
50.1% were Bosniaks, 30.8% Serbs, 15.4% Croats and 3.7% other ethnic groups. Out of the
total number of inhabitants that year 50.7% were Muslims, 15.2% Catholics, 30.7% Orthodox
and 3.4% other religions. In the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, 70.4% of population
are Bosniaks and in the Republic of Srpska 81.5% of population are Serbs. In Brčko District
of Bosnia and Herzegovina 42.4% of population are Bosniaks, 20.7% Croats and 34.6%
Serbs (DZS, 1994 and BHAS, 2016).
In the post-war period, the administrative division and ethnic homogenization have not
contributed to political stability of this country while the politics has hindered its economic
and social development. Unfavorable economic and political circumstances have intensified
migrations of Bosnian population again. Therefore, migrations have been the primary factor
of demographic changes in the several last decades. Consequently, it is necessary to
thoroughly examine primary migration trends with their causes and consequences for future
demographic development of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
3.2 Migration trends in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Like the entire area of the Southeastern European region where Bosnia and Herzegovina is
situated, this country is characteristic by its significant migrations of the population, both
forced and voluntary. These movements were especially intensified during the 19th and 20th
centuries, and they reached their culmination in the 1990s (Ibreljić and Kulenović, 2005).
In line with previous studies, more than a half of Bosnian population was forced to
emigrate from the country or was displaced within Bosnia and Herzegovina between 1992
and 1995 (Lukic Tanovic et al., 2014). About 1.2 million people were forced to leave the
country (Valenta and Ramet, 2011) while 1 million citizens were displaced within the
country, which, in total, is 2.2 million refugees and displaced people (Vallador Alvarez,
2015; Ibreljic et al., 2006; Ibreljić and Kulenović, 2005). According to the United Nations
Refugee Agency (2006), there were more than 1.050 million Bosnian refugees in foreign
countries in 1996, which is almost ¼ of its total pre-war population.
Similar information about the intensity of displacement of population of Bosnia and
Herzegovina between 1992 and 1995 were provided by the Internal Displacement
Monotoring Centre and the Norwegian Refugee Council, stating that more than a half of
Bosnian population was displaced in the mentioned period. About 1.3 million were forced to
leave the country, 500,000 fled to neighbouring countries and around 700,000 to the Western
European Countries (350,000 to Germany). Most of the migrants chose neighboring states for
their host countries because of geographical proximity (Vrecer, 2010; Bonifazi and Mamolo,
2004).
About 40% of Bosnian citizens immigrated to Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia and Slovenia
between 1992 and 1995. These countries, along with Germany and Austria, hosted 75% of
Bosnian refugees. A significant number migrated to other Western European Countries and
all over the world - approximately 25% of refugees (Table 1).
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Table 1. Bosnian refugees in the world from 1992 to 1995
Country
Number of refugees
Country
Number of refugees
Australia
15,000
FYR Macedonia
9,000
Austria
86,500
Norway
12,000
Belgium
5,500
Germany
320,000
Czech Republic
3,000
USA
20,000
Denmark
17,000
Slovenia
43,100
France
6,000
Serbia and Montenegro
297,000
Greece
4,000
Spain and Portugal
4,500
The Netherlands
22,000
Sweden
58,700
Croatia
170,000
Switzerland
24,500
Italy
12,100
Turkey
23,500
Canada
20,000
G. Britain and Ireland
4,100
Hungary
7,000
Other countries
13,500
Source: Valenta, Ramet, 2011
From 1996 Bosnia and Herzegovina has participated in various assisted programs related
to voluntary return and reintegration, which enabled many Bosnian citizens to return home.
Conforming to official indicators, 1,012,006 Bosnian citizens returned to Bosnia and
Herzegovina (442,137 refugees and 569,869 displaced persons) between signing of the
Dayton Agreement and 2006 (UNHCR, 2006). According to 2013 Population Census in
Bosnia and Herzegovina, 451,447 citizens returned home from foreign countries.
The second half of the 1990s was characterized by voluntary emigration of Bosnian
citizens who left the country either to reunify with their families or due to adverse economic
and political situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the post-war period. As stated by the
United Nations Development Programme (2002) at least 92,000 young people left Bosnia
between January 1996 and March 2001. In the first several years of the 21st century there was
not any indication that the number of emigrants from Bosnia and Herzegovina was in decline.
This process was mostly conditioned by the economic motives and social, political and other
circumstances. Emigrants are mostly highly educated and qualified and are usually between
the age of 20 and 40. On the report of Malnar and Malnar (2015), young people emigrating
from Bosnia and Herzegovina, like their peers from other countries of Southeastern Europe,
are motivated by unfavorable economic circumstances. Avdeev et al. (2011) claim that the
greatest outflow of population caused by migration to other European countries was reported
by the poorest countries, including Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Bosnia and Herzegovina has had a negative migration balance since 1996. Only in 2010 it
was recorded that 4,284 persons left Bosnia and Herzegovina while only 309 foreigners
applied for a permanent residence in this country. 3,492 persons left Bosnia in 2013; 4,323 in
2014; 3,948 in 2015 and 4,019 in 2016. About 36.6% of people who left Bosnia and
Herzegovina were between the age of 30 and 39 and 54.1% between the age of 15 and 44.
Most of the citizens who left Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2016 went to the following
countries: Germany (29.6%), Austria (22.2%), Croatia (21.9%), Serbia (12.1%) and Slovenia
(10.5%) (Federal Office for Statistics, 2011 to 2017). Persons who apply for a permanent
residence in Bosnia are mostly from China, Croatia, Montenegro, Turkey, Macedonia, the
Russian Federation, Slovenia, Austria and Syria (Ministry of Security of B&H, 2012). The
main reasons why Bosnians emigrate are closely related to employment (36%), studying
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(19%), etc. Statistical data of the World Bank indicate that Bosnia and Herzegovina is one of
the countries with the hugest percentage of emigrants in comparison to its total population.
As stated by this source, Bosnia and Herzegovina has a great number of emigrants in its total
population (1,461,000 or 38.9% of total population). Furthermore, emigration rate of highly
educated persons is high - 23.9% (World Bank, 2011).
Some authors believe that Bosnians nowadays represent one of the most widespread
emigrant communities from the Balkans (Halilovich, 2012). The fact that a very significant
number of Bosnians in diaspora renounced their Bosnian citizenship represents a serious
problem for demographic development of this country. About 58,453 Bosnians renounced
their citizenship between 1998 and 2012. About 2/3 of Bosnians who renounced their
citizenship did it in order to acquire German, Austrian, Slovenian, Croatian, Serbian or
Danish citizenship (Ministry of Human Rights and Refugees of B&H, 2012).
4. RESEARCH RESULTS
4.1 Migration and demographic changes in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Migration is an important factor of demographic development and has a very strong impact
on adverse population trends in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, Kosovo as well as other
countries of Southeastern Europe (Malnar and Malnar, 2015). A similar demographic trend
was also noted in other countries of the world. For example, one of the main causes of
population decline in Kazakhstan was a significant emigration of population from this
country (Nyussupova et al., 2017).
In the modern era of globalization of international migrations, Bosnia and Herzegovina, as
a country with a small number of citizens with numerous economic, political, social and other
problems, faces a relatively difficult situation. Bosnian population migration caused
significant demographic changes in this country, which affect the total number of population,
natural increase of population, changes in age and sex structure, ethnic affiliation, spatial
redistribution of population, etc. The data presented in Table 2 illustrate the influence of
migration component from 1992 to 1995 on development of Bosnian population.
Table 2. Number of Bosnian citizens between 1991 and 2013
Year
Population
Rise or decline (%)
1991
4,377,033
-
1996
3,645,000
-16.7
2001
3,798,000
4.2
2005
3,843,000
1.2
2011
3,840,000
-0.08
2013
3,531,159
-8.04
Source: Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2017
According to 1991 Population Census, there were 4,377,033 people in Bosnia and
Herzegovina while pursuant to 2013 Census there were 3,531,159 inhabitants. This shows
that the number of people in this country declined for 19.3% in the period between 1991 and
2013. Similar data about the intensity of forced migration were provided by Avdeev et al.
(2011) showing that Bosnia and Herzegovina lost 19% of its population due to major political
upheavals from the 1990s. It is important to underline that not only did the migration affect
demographics of Bosnia and Herzegovina but it also affected the number of war casualties
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and the decline of birth rate in this period. In the opinion of Lukic Tanovic et al. (2014) the
total demographic loss in the 1992-1995 war was 1,135,966 people or 25.95% of the pre-war
Bosnian population.
A slight rise of population was recorded after 1996 due to repatriation of Bosnian refugees
from abroad. However, there has been a steady decline of population from 2001. This trend is
a consequence of the post-Dayton emigration of Bosnian population and of negative trends of
natural increase/decrease rates (Table 3), which resulted from adverse economic, political,
social and other conditions.
Table 3. Natural increase/decrease rates in Bosnia and Herzegovina from 1991 to 2015 in ‰
Year
Death rate
Natural
increase
Year
Death rate
1991
7.2
7.8
2008
8.9
1996
6.9
5.9
2009
9.1
2002
7.9
1.4
2010
9.1
2003
8.3
0.9
2011
9.1
2004
8.5
0.7
2012
9.3
2005
8.9
0.1
2013
7.1
2006
8.6
0.2
2014
10.2
2007
9.1
-0.3
2015
10.8
Source: Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2017
It is clearly visible from data presented in Table 3 that birth rates in Bosnia and
Herzegovina have been below 14‰ since 1996 while mortality rates have varied from 6‰ to
11‰. This resulted in low natural increase rates, which varied from 5.9‰ to 0.1‰ in the
period between 1996 and 2006. Natural decrease rates were recorded from 2007 (-0.3‰) to
2015 (-2.3‰). The above mentioned ratios indicate that Bosnia and Herzegovina has entered
the post-transitional stage but in terms of socioeconomic status it still lags behind the highly
developed countries which have recorded low natural increase rates for decades. The cause of
this continuous decline of birth rates and natural increase rates are war casualties and the
post-war emigration from Bosnia and Herzegovina supported by adverse socio-economic,
political and other circumstances.
The data presented in Table 4 show Spearmans Rank Order Correlation between
dependent variable natural increase/decrease rate in 2013 and six different independent
demographic and economic variables of Bosnia and Herzegovina`s population in 2013: mean
age, age coefficient, net wage, percentage of internally displaced persons in total population,
percentage of unemployed in total population and average size of household.
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Table 4. Spearmans Rank Order Correlation between natural increase/decrease rates and other demographic
variables in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2013
Variable
Natural increase/decrease rate in ‰
Mean age
Spearmans rho
-.845**
Sig. (2-tailed)
.000
Age coefficient
Spearmans rho
-.778**
Sig. (2-tailed)
.000
Net wage
Spearmans rho
-.021
Sig. (2-tailed)
.803
Percentage of displaced persons in total
population
Spearmans rho
-.269**
Sig. (2-tailed)
.001
Percentage of unemployed in total
population
Spearmans rho
.260**
Sig. (2-tailed)
.002
Average size of households
Spearmans rho
.417**
Sig. (2-tailed)
.000
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
Source: Author’s calculation, based on data from Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2017
Calculation of Spearmans correlation between different demographic variables in
municipalities of Bosnia and Herzegovina showed that there was a slight negative correlation
between percentage of decline in total number of population and natural increase/decrease
rates. Municipalities with higher percentage of refugees and internally displaced persons have
lower natural increase rates. Elderly population percentage and mean age of population have
the greatest influence on population dynamics. Municipalities with higher age coefficient and
mean age mostly have higher natural decrease rates (Figures 1 and 2).
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Figure 1. Natural increase/decrease rates in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2015
Figure 2. Age coefficient in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2015
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The aging process in Bosnia and Herzegovina, like in other European countries, has
started long ago and has been increasing. For example, the median age in the countries of the
European Union increased from 39.8 to 42.6 years in the period from 2006 to 2016 (Eurostat,
2017). Over the past decades, median age has especially been increasing in developed
countries of the world but also in less developed regions due to social and economic
development (Bucher, 2012). Typically, more developed countries have higher median age
because they have higher percentage of population older than 60 in the overall population
(UNDESA, 2009). However, this process was significantly accelerated in Bosnia and
Herzegovina after the recent 1992-1995 war. Mean and median age of Bosnian population
changed in line with economic, social and political circumstances. Since 1961 the mean and
median age of Bosnian population have been showing a steady increase. In the period
between 1961 and 2013 mean age of Bosnian population increased from 25.5 to 40.1 and
median age from 21.2 to 39.9. According to an estimation of the United Nations, Bosnia and
Herzegovina is among those countries of the world which expect an intensive population
ageing and which median age is to reach 53.2 years of age by 2050 (UNDESA, 2013).
Bosnian population entered the advanced demographic ageing because the age coefficient
amounted to 19.8% according to the data from 2007 and 20.5% in 2013. Vitality index was
about 0.035 in 1991, 0.008 in 2007, and 0.005 in 2013, which indicates that the potential
vitality and bio-dynamics of Bosnian population significantly dropped in the postwar period.
This was also confirmed by the population pyramids for years 1991 and 2013 (Figure 3),
where Bosnian demographic aging process was clearly observable.
Figure 3. Population pyramids of Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1991 and 2013
Bosnia and Herzegovina is facing a depopulation process which is mostly caused by
emigration, decreasing birth rates, increasing death rates and population ageing.
Unfortunately, there is not any institutionalized population policy in this country which could
lead to demographic revitalization. Therefore, similar demographic trends are expected in the
future.
5. CONCLUSIONS
Bosnia and Herzegovina has been an area of intensive emigration flows since the second half
of the 20th century. Emigration of Bosnian population to developed European countries and
other countries of the world before the first half of the 1990s was mostly caused by economic
factors. Until 1992 economic migrations from Bosnia and Herzegovina were caused by
internationalization of production which destabilized traditional agriculture and created
circumstances for migration. However, in the period between 1992 and 1995 there was a
forced migration of Bosnian population, which consequently gave political connotations to
the migration process in this country.
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Major economic, social and especially demographic changes in Bosnia and Herzegovina
were made because of the forced migration of about 1.2 million Bosnian citizens to other
European and world countries and 1 million of displaced persons within Bosnia and
Herzegovina. The forced migration caused regional redistribution of population within
Bosnia and Herzegovina. Ethnic homogenization in some areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina
and concentration of population in urban areas during and after the war are direct
consequences of forced migrations. Furthermore, the second half of the 1990s was also
characterized by a voluntary emigration of Bosnian citizens due to poor social, political and
economic conditions in the postwar period. Both, forced migration of 2 million Bosnians
during the war and the voluntary emigration after the war (negative migration balance)
caused the decline of the total number of citizens. Moreover, they affected decline of natural
increase rates as well as the decline of potential bio-dynamics and expressed aging process of
Bosnian population.
A lack of population politics represents one of the main problems for the postwar
demographic development of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Therefore, it is necessary to
strengthen the economic and social development of this country. Furthermore, defining an
adequate population policy which will lead to demographic revitalization of Bosnia and
Herzegovina would be of a great importance.
ACKOWLEDGMENTS
Alma Kadusic contributed to the idea and design of the paper, its writing and the final
revision. Alija Suljic contributed through creative assistance in the process of writing.
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... During the conflict, over 50% of BiH's population moved internally or externally. This caused a tectonic shift in the social and economic landscape of this society (Kadusic and Suljic 2018), with unexplored long-run consequences on these individuals. ...
... Most of the refugees relocated to neighbouring states; about 40% of BiH citizens emigrated to Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, and Slovenia between 1992 and 1995. These countries, together with Germany and Austria, hosted 75% of Bosnian forced migrants (Kadusic and Suljic 2018). ...
... Bosnia and Herzegovina has been recognised by the EU as a "potential candidate country" for accession since the decision of the European Council in Thessaloniki in 2003.3 The Bosnian War was characterised by bitter fighting, indiscriminate shelling of cities and towns, ethnic cleansing, killing civilians and systematic mass rape(Kadusic and Suljic 2018). ...
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... During the conflict, over 50% of BiH's population moved internally or externally. This caused a tectonic shift in the social and economic landscape of this society (Kadusic and Suljic 2018), with unexplored long-run consequences on these individuals. ...
... Most of the refugees relocated to neighbouring states; about 40% of BiH citizens emigrated to Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, and Slovenia between 1992 and 1995. These countries, together with Germany and Austria, hosted 75% of Bosnian forced migrants (Kadusic and Suljic 2018). ...
... Bosnia and Herzegovina has been recognised by the EU as a "potential candidate country" for accession since the decision of the European Council in Thessaloniki in 2003.3 The Bosnian War was characterised by bitter fighting, indiscriminate shelling of cities and towns, ethnic cleansing, killing civilians and systematic mass rape(Kadusic and Suljic 2018). ...
... This was the most dramatic period in the country's recent history: around 100 000 lives were lost and more than half of the population was forced to emigrate or was displaced within the country 4 . These movements included about 1.2 million people who left the country, while around a million citizens were displaced (Kadusic and Suljic, 2018). Most of the war migrants chose neighbouring states as their host countries. ...
... Most of the war migrants chose neighbouring states as their host countries. About 40% of the country's citizens emigrated to Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia and Slovenia between 1992 and 1995, and these countries, together with Germany and Austria, hosted 75% of the forced migrants from BiH (Kadusic and Suljic, 2018) 5 . ...
... This monetary arrangement has imposed limitations on the active use of monetary policy, but it has been successful in maintaining price stability.4 The Bosnian War was characterised by bitter fighting, indiscriminate shelling of cities and towns, ethnic cleansing, the killing of civilians and systematic mass rape(Kadusic and Suljic, 2018). 5 According to the Norwegian Refugee Council, about 1.3 million people were forced to leave the country: 500 000 fled to neighbouring countries and around 700 000 to Western European countries (350 000 of them to Germany) (cited inKadusic and Suljic, 2018). ...
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... The demographic composition of the population has largely been affected by the war causing a significant process of depopulation in the country. Although migration from Bosnia and Herzegovina, mostly to Western Europe, took place long before the outbreak of the war in 1992, during the 1992-1995 war an immense territorial redistribution of the population occurred (Kadusic & Suljic, 2018). Bosnia and Herzegovina had 4,377,033 inhabitants in 1991, whereas in 2013, when the latest census was conducted, the number was 3,531,159 32 (Con3Post seminar, Ljubljana). ...
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... After the war, the administrative division of the country into entities and ethnic homogenization has further deepened the political instability and hindered its economic and social development (Kadusic & Suljic, 2018). Current population trends in Bosnia and Herzegovina continue to be discouraging: falling fertility rates, negative natural increase (a higher number of deaths than births), depopulation (decrease in the number of the population), negative net migration, and rapid ageing (Kadusic and Suljic, 2018;Čičić et al., 2019). And since there are no institutionalized population policies in the country, similar demographic trends could be expected in the future (Kadusic and Suljic, 2018). ...
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... Bosnia and Herzegovina is facing a depopulation process, which is mostly caused by emigration, decreasing birth rates, increasing death rates and population ageing. Unfortunately, there is no institutionalized population policy in this country which could lead to demographic revitalization (Kadušić and Suljić, 2018). According to Halilovich (2012), Bosnians nowadays represent one of the most widespread emigrant communities from the Balkans. ...
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Many of us in the social sciences deal with data that do not conform to assumptions of normality and/or homoscedasticity/homogeneity of variance. Some research has shown that parametric tests (e.g., multiple regression, ANOVA) can be robust to modest violations of these assumptions. Yet the reality is that almost all analyses (even nonparametric tests) benefit from improved the normality of variables, particularly where substantial non-normality is present. While many are familiar with select traditional transformations (e.g., square root, log, inverse) for improving normality, the Box-Cox transformation (Box & Cox, 1964) represents a family of power transformations that incorporates and extends the traditional options to help researchers easily find the optimal normalizing transformation for each variable. As such, Box-Cox represents a potential best practice where normalizing data or equalizing variance is desired. This paper briefly presents an overview of traditional normalizing transformations and how Box-Cox incorporates, extends, and improves on these traditional approaches to normalizing data. Examples of applications are presented, and details of how to automate and use this technique in SPSS and SAS are included.
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Over the past three decades we have witnessed an evolution of the concept of security in general and of demographic security as a specific field of security studies. The approach to security has been changing both in regards to a widening of subjects and referent objects of security, and a widening of the security domain. Consideration of the demographic component in the security sphere has evolved in accordance with this development; the scope of perspectives through which demographic security is viewed and defined has expanded - the population composition, population dynamics and human capital paradigm. Aspects of demographics and security are in continuous interaction and interdependence which significantly determines demographic security and national security. The aim of this paper is to establish a specific link between demographic security and security in ten post-socialist countries of South Eastern Europe (SEE). In accordance with this aim, an analysis has been made of the compositional elements and population dynamics in order to determine demographic security of the observed states. The analysis indicates unfavourable demographic security, and negative demographic composition and dynamics in most of observed states, which suggests that demographic security will have a continuing negative impact on the security of the countries analysed and the region as a whole.
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Over the past decades, the ageing of our society has become a widespread phenomenon. A continuing increase of the elderly population is particularly present in more developed regions of world. However, demographic changes are soon expected in less developed regions as a consequence of socio-economic development. The paper reports on the development of characteristics of the burden carried by the productive population as the consequence of the demographic ageing of population in the conditions of Slovak and Czech regions. Population was divided into to the age groups and burden on the productive population was analysed using burden coefficients, age index and coefficients describing the dynamics of burden changes, specifically the inflow, outflow and substitution coefficient. The significance of this analysis is based on the fact that ageing influences – to the great extent – the spatial structure of human activities.
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The main objective of this study is to analyze the migration into the coastal area of Benin and the related possible effects on the socio-economic and ecological environment. In total, 660 coastal household chiefs comprising 262 women and 405 men were interviewed. Semi-structured interviews were made with 32 notables and local authorities of the coastal Districts. The Analysis of Variance was applied in order to test the relationship between socio-demographic parameters and migration motives. Results showed that migrants are above people at working age. The gender offers a possibility of differentiated analysis. The searching for jobs and training and family reasons are the main motives for migration into the coastal area. There is no significant relationship between ethnic groups and types of motivation (P=0.54). But there was a significant relationship between marital status and type of motivation (P=0.00). There is a significant relationship between gender and type of motivation (P<0.00).
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The article deals with the dynamics of the main indicators of socio-geographical processes of the Republic of Kazakhstan from 1999 to 2014. The article is based on statistical data from 1999 to 2014 with an emphasis on 1999, 2009 (the first and second censuses of independent Kazakhstan) and 2004, 2014. The territorial analysis of the socio-geographical processes includes such indicators as population size, infant mortality, and life expectancy, the level of health care, education level, and provision of the housing of the population. The main conclusions are: 1. Kazakhstan is characterized by the increase in population due to natural growth and a positive balance of migration; 2. The aging of the population, which led to the increase in the unfavorable side of the indicator of the demographic load and the balance of labor resources; 3. Low life expectancy in comparison with the developed countries; high infant mortality rate. At the same time, Kazakhstan has almost 100% literacy rate of the population and high coverage of the population by education.