Content uploaded by Kesten Green
Author content
All content in this area was uploaded by Kesten Green on Jun 11, 2019
Content may be subject to copyright.
“I would rather have questions that can't
be
answered than answers that can't be
questioned.”
-.
$""/"
0 1
'
not
!
"
) 02
30
24"5
67#'(()
' 89244""
"9#2
,93#52
:
,0 ;<4
99#4""
595=
2 0"3'(, 993
"5,
>
#$%&
&%"
) 0Principles of Forecasting Handbook '(()
452 ?(95
#42 )'>90"4)>*
;5"="2".$
' 2 6'((&55
@$;2"="2"
"@$3A"2"45
"&'5B*5""
"44"
""
A* @"$""
<2")*BB: =7
4"42C45"=
Wikipedia
;C=4C
?
0;"-"5.=
) !2 cumulative
knowledge2,25
2"
' 0"-""5'B
""2 )D(9"
0
> 0@$5""")*"
"50
"2"4"
" ;Precautionary Principle.” 0
"""-"#9"
#
Uncertainty, the Precautionary Principle,
and Climate Change D
'()*+"
,
+
"%-.
+
/--"01
")E55
@$:>FG <:
(FG
)* *+
055)BD),)*&D "DB
55H5*))((
05@$54)'+
"5" ,
"
&
$(2334
.I$"2
"Assault on Reason "'((&
:
;J 444
""5"""(
"#4"")( #
"5
"(5
"H=
'((&<2"$$H5""44@$
B
#-6
)K25
L)(#(((# "
"
)( 5""4'((&"J
#" 2 5;=
'024"""
>J52
C
5
?M24
J4"4
*
(731
,$
)(
"2""complex situation 4high
uncertainty
,$
/--( (
;"=>
.29
,0 :
89
5
<,55')
4
and@$3
"
<,
##
'((*
#-673
) 0"2"5;"=
4G@$4)(E"
5,5
' 0signed5,@$
4>+"2
,3
> 0J@$
#4925
)(
? M4) ?
)(
D M2;M"8
0=
))
;M"80="
'()*
05)*B),'()(#
)'
8 9 $
5 0.54 0.159 0.425
6 0.34 0.159 0.428
7 0.39 0.159 0.430
8 0.45 0.159 0.433
9 0.47 0.159 0.435
10 0.44 0.159 0.438
11 0.48 0.159 0.440
12 0.28 0.159 0.443
2017 1 0.40 0.159 0.445
2 0.47 0.159 0.448
3 0.30 0.159 0.450
4 0.30 0.159 0.453
5 0.45 0.159 0.455
6 0.22 0.159 0.458
7 0.30 0.159 0.460
8 0.42 0.159 0.463
9 0.56 0.159 0.465
10 0.63 0.159 0.468
11 0.35 0.159 0.470
12 0.43 0.159 0.473
2018 1 0.29 0.159 0.475
2 0.25 0.159 0.478
3 0.28 0.159 0.480
4 0.21 0.159 0.483
5 0.16 0.159 0.485
6 0.20 0.159 0.488
7 0.30 0.159 0.490
8 0.18 0.159 0.493
9 0.13 0.159 0.495
10 0.20 0.159 0.498
11 0.26 0.159 0.500
A 444 GG G +(G "G N "N +(9 12 0.25 0.159 0.503
?J '()*5I+(5"'()D 2019 1 0.38 0.159 0.505
M""25" 2 0.37 0.159 0.508
3 0.34 0.159 0.510
4 0.44 0.159 0.513
:;#:"237<
=#"7<>712373-9 ?
,(D?
,(>?
,()?
((+
('+
(?+
(++
(B+
'((& '((B '((* '()( '()) '()' '()> '()? '()D '()+ '()& '()B '()*
< @$O>FG J" " " "
@@
MC5C
5C04:
) $2"
' $4"" 4
> $5"""5
"
? 2#"#"2"#"
D ""2"
+ J""
& 89"
"2"
B "5""4""" 5
0C4')
)>
0 :"##
4
)@""#",
4
'0CH9
"
)D
/
.9"# C"
2"2 P
3 '((B
"44;=
@" #5
4"2"
4"Q4:
$"2"5:2"," 5
!9refused 2"
4"954
)&
#1
"
)B
"
"
"
0@$55"
"4
0K522K#
5"2
02 9"
"4
""5" 583
2"2"72)*&B5R3
MC5"4S"
4"""S""
M"80
045O)'BG 4"
?( D
)*
;
) M"59#4C'+
55"
' ""5429
> '>5
'+5
? ""525""#
4"#
" #55"
:6'())#
;A+
"0
'(
.4#
')
M
2"2"4
P
;0"5
25 5
54
2"25"
"=
0K#)&&*
''
)
#)*B(0, :0"595
Technology Review#G" #)+,'?
#6#'()B755"2"
45""4P"5@"
.#!"#Q
####65#'()D"-"5.:!
Journal of Business Research, Journal of Business Research, 1717–1731.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.031
####6#M'((B$"2"5:
2"," 5Interfaces, 38#>B',?(?
#6#'((&"2"4:.2
C5Energy & Environment, 18#**&,)(')
##6#'((B # "#
""2"2"" 5
#6#'())0"2"4":55
"SSRN Working Paper)+D+(D+"2"-<:
:GGG2T)+D+(D+
#6#'()?."2""@J
8#Climate Change: The Facts 2014#)&(U)B+#J"2#":@$
#6#'()D""95:0
Journal of Business Research#)+&BU)+BD
:GG9G)()()+G2'()D(>('+
####6#M'((*I" 5"5
52"" International Journal of Forecasting, 25#B'+UB>'
#M67#'(()55@
#Principles of Forecasting#D)*,D?(
0"#86#'((&-45:$"80"'((D. Expert
Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?$$
International Journal of Forecasting#>>*,>?'