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Over the past two decades, economists have turned their attention to exploring the role of gender in the macroeconomy. This paper reviews the salient findings of that literature. Research shows that gender gaps in education, health, unpaid labor, employment, and wages have economy-wide consequences and influence the rate of growth. The effects are transmitted via both the supply side of the economy – principally through labor productivity – and the demand side – through business spending, exports, saving, and the balance of payments. In turn, a broad array of macro-level policies, including fiscal, monetary, and trade policies have differential effects by gender that, if unheeded, can undermine macro-policy goals. Their impact depends on the structure of the economy and the gender division of labor in paid and unpaid work. This survey makes clear that incorporation of gender into macro models improves the relevance of macroeconomic theory and can yield better policy results.
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Feminist Economics
ISSN: 1354-5701 (Print) 1466-4372 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/rfec20
Engendering Macroeconomic Theory and Policy
Stephanie Seguino
To cite this article: Stephanie Seguino (2019): Engendering Macroeconomic Theory and Policy,
Feminist Economics, DOI: 10.1080/13545701.2019.1609691
To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/13545701.2019.1609691
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Published online: 28 May 2019.
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Feminist Economics, 2019
https://doi.org/10.1080/13545701.2019.1609691
ENGENDERING MACROECONOMIC THEORY AND
POLICY
Stephanie Seguino
ABSTRACT
Over the past two decades, economists have turned their attention to exploring
the role of gender in the macroeconomy. This paper reviews the salient findings
of that literature. Research shows that gender gaps in education, health, unpaid
labor, employment, and wages have economy-wide consequences and influence
the rate of growth. The effects are transmitted via both the supply side of
the economy – principally through labor productivity – and the demand side
– through business spending, exports, saving, and the balance of payments.
In turn, a broad array of macro-level policies, including fiscal, monetary,
and trade policies have differential effects by gender that, if unheeded, can
undermine macro-policy goals. Their impact depends on the structure of
the economy and the gender division of labor in paid and unpaid work.
This survey makes clear that incorporation of gender into macro models
improves the relevance of macroeconomic theory and can yield better policy
results.
KEYWORDS
Macroeconomics, gender differences, structural economics
JEL Codes: E1, E5, F41
INTRODUCTION
Interest in the gendered repercussions of macroeconomic policy surged in
the 1980s and 1990s, largely influenced by the unanticipated consequences
of structural adjustment policies. Research underscored that macro policies
might not reach their goals if gender effects were ignored (Elson 1995).
This spawned a body of scholarship undertaken by the International
Working Group on Gender and Macroeconomics aimed at “engendering”
macroeconomic and trade theory, resulting in special issues of World
Development in 1995 and 2000. This growing body of work has elucidated
the critical role of the gender division of unpaid and paid labor for
understanding how the macroeconomy functions. The result has been
the emergence of a new subfield of gender and macroeconomics, which
© 2019 IAFFE
ENGENDERING MACROECONOMIC THEORY
identifies the two-way causality between gender relations (and disparities)
and macroeconomic outcomes. This survey paper reviews the main threads
of that literature on gender and macroeconomics.
First, I look at the research linking the gender relations that are
embedded in institutions at every level of the economy (for example,
the household, labor, and credit markets) to economic development
and growth. I then examine the reverse causality – the impact of
macro-level policies on men and women as a form of intra-group
inequality. This review is not exhaustive, given the size of this body of
research. Rather, I focus on key research publications that have shaped
the way we understand the two-way causality between gender and the
macroeconomy.
As reviewed in this paper, theoretical and empirical research finds
that the degree of gender equality in education, health, unpaid labor,
employment, and wages has substantial economy-wide effects. Theoretical
perspectives influence the way gender gaps are incorporated into models,
with heterodox economists emphasizing the demand and supply side in the
short and long run, while neoclassical economists tend to focus on long-run
supply-side effects.
Regarding supply-side macroeconomic effects, gender gaps in education
and health are largely transmitted via their dampening effect on labor
productivity. Growth can also be hampered by gender employment gaps
due to the effect on misallocation of talent and thus productivity. Indirect
effects on the macroeconomy are transmitted via the impacts on women’s
fertility, as well as on children’s well-being, and thus long-run labor
productivity. On the demand side, gender inequalities in education, wages,
and employment affect consumption, saving, investment, exports, and the
balance of payments, with the net effect on growth influenced by the
structure of the economy, as well as a country’s gender division of labor.
Moreover, macroeconomically relevant measures of gender inequality
differ according to a country’s structure of production and stage of
development.
Macro-level policies, in turn, may have different effects on women and
men. In this paper, I focus on new areas of research that have extended
and expanded lessons learned from the earlier gender analysis of structural
adjustment. These new areas include the effects of physical and social
infrastructure spending, monetary and exchange rate policy, and a variety
of demand-management tools, such as Employer of Last Resort (ELR)
policies. The research reviewed here highlights the importance of viewing
macro-level policies through a gender lens to make policies concordant
with the goal of promoting gender equality. Given the role that gender
plays in influencing macroeconomic outcomes, the lesson that emerges
is that policy goals can be thwarted if gender effects are not taken into
consideration.
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THEORETICAL APPROACHES TO MODELING THE
MACROECONOMIC ROLE OF GENDER
Three distinct theoretical approaches to modeling the macroeconomic role
of gender have emerged. Neoclassical growth models emphasize the long
run. With the assumption of full employment and perfect competition
in product and labor markets, the focus is on the supply-side effects of
greater gender equality. The neoclassical approach generally builds on an
augmented Solow growth model to incorporate the role of human capital:
Y=Af (K,H,L)(1)
where Yis output, Ais technological change, Kis physical capital, H
is human capital, and Lis the quantity of labor. Typically, the models
emphasize gender variables that influence the quality or quantity of the
labor supply – in particular, education and labor force participation rates
(Klasen and Lamanna 2009;Bandara2015). While the models do not
explore how gender affects technological progress (A) or the growth of the
capital stock (K), they do incorporate the gender dimensions of care and
reproductive labor and the implications for children and long-run labor
productivity growth.
A second methodology is overlapping generation (OLG) models,
a type of representative agent economic model that captures the
effect of household decision making on schooling and work. OLGs
permit an analysis of resource allocation and output per capita across
generations (and in this way, capture growth effects). Models are
engendered by incorporating women’s time allocation between productive
and reproductive work (Agénor and Canuto 2012;Khera2016;Kim,
Lee, and Shin 2016). Some incorporate bargaining power differentials
between women and men that can influence the allocation of household
resources, including time (Agénor and Canuto 2012). Models vary in their
assumptions regarding labor market distortions, wage discrimination, and
job segregation. Most assume labor market flexibility and full employment
(thus ignoring demand-side effects of gender inequality). Several authors
have calibrated these static, long-run models for simulation to investigate
the quantitative impact of policies.
The insights of a number of neoclassical growth and OLG models are
circumscribed in their application to the policy realm as they ignore real-
world macroeconomic problems, such as aggregate demand deficiencies
and balance of payments constraints, which produce feedback effects
and alter gender relations. To some extent, these vagaries are accounted
for in the third theoretical approach, Keynesian/Kaleckian short- and
long-run growth models that incorporate the role of aggregate demand
in influencing output and employment (Braunstein 2000; Blecker and
Seguino 2002;Seguino2010; Braunstein, van Staveren, and Tavani 2011;
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ENGENDERING MACROECONOMIC THEORY
Braunstein, Bouhia, and Seguino 2017). A distinct feature of the latter
models is their allowance for excess capacity and thus unemployment.
These models also account for imperfectly competitive product and
labor markets and differentiated saving rates by gender. Short-run
models engender the macroeconomic equilibrium condition in an open
economy:
S+T+M=I+G+X(2)
where Sis saving, Tis taxes, Mis imports, Iis business spending, Gis
government spending, and Xis exports. By engender, I mean that these
macroeconomic aggregates are modeled in a way that captures the impact
of a change in relative women’s/men’s well-being (such as wages or access
to credit).
For example, gender differences in savings propensities affect levels of
consumption and saving, and therefore demand. Gender differences in the
marginal propensity to import similarly affect the import bill and balance
of payments. Gender gaps in access to agricultural resources may also affect
food production and therefore the import bill in subsistence agriculture
economies. On the investment side, gender wage and employment gaps
have a positive impact on profits and therefore investment in some types of
economies.1There are similar effects on export demand, especially when
coupled with gender-segregated employment.
These models can be used to assess the total effect of a shift
in gender equality, based on the impact on each macroeconomic
aggregate, allowing for both positive (demand-stimulating) effects as well
as negative (contractionary) effects. This category of models typically
focuses on variables that are amenable to change in the short run, in
particular, gender gaps in wages and employment. The models differentiate
economies by their economic structure and corresponding gender division
of labor. They are thus structuralist macro models that reflect the
variation in the impact of gender by economic structure and stage of
development.
Long-run Kaleckian models have been developed as well and are
distinguished by separate functions for aggregate demand and output
growth, allowing for divergence (Seguino 2010).2Thus,thistypeof
model takes into account both supply- and demand-side factors affecting
growth. They differ from neoclassical models by incorporating various
forms of gender inequality, including fast-moving variables such as wages
as compared to slower-acting variables like gender educational gaps.
In the discussion that follows, I identify the methodologies and major
findings on the macroeconomic impact of gender disparities in education,
employment (often proxied by labor force participation rates), wages, and
job segregation.
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Neoclassical Solow growth and OLG models
Education
A large theoretical and empirical literature explores the various channels
by which gender equality in education is hypothesized to stimulate growth.
Much of this literature derives from the view that due to selection bias,
gender gaps in education depress economy-wide productivity (Hill and
King 1995; Klasen and Lamanna 2009; Baliamoune-Lutz and McGillivray
2015). The models assume competitive labor markets, such that greater
educational equality will be followed by a narrowing of gender wage gaps.
Greater educational equality is also hypothesized to affect growth by
reducing fertility rates, as the opportunity cost of children rises with
greater education for women (Galor and Weil 1996; Lagerlöf 1999;Kim,
Lee, and Shin 2016). Lower fertility rates improve the quality of labor,
it is hypothesized, given that more resources are invested in the reduced
quantity of children, thereby raising economy-wide productivity.
Measures of education vary in the empirical studies. Klasen and Lamanna
(2009) use total educational attainment of those age 25 and older – a
stock variable that captures the accumulated historical gender bias in
access to education. Baliamoune-Lutz and McGillivray (2015), in contrast,
adopt primary and secondary enrollment rates, which are flow variables
– that is, they reflect gender gaps in enrollment for a given age group
and year. Despite using different measures of education and controls that
cover different time periods and countries, the studies reach the same
conclusion: gender equality in education is a stimulus to growth over the
long run. The effects on growth can be large indeed – up to 1 percentage
point in annual per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates
(Klasen and Lamanna 2009).
Overall, the positive effect on growth of gender equality in education
seems to be a settled issue in the theoretical and empirical neoclassical
research, but some puzzles remain. First, if educational gaps are the
only explanatory gender variable in regressions, the coefficients could
be capturing the effect of omitted gender variables, such that empirical
estimates of educational effects on growth are overstated. This is likely,
given research that shows other measures of gender equality also impact
growth. Second, an issue that is as yet unexplored is the implication of
gender reversals in education. In some Latin American and Caribbean
countries, women’s educational attainment exceeds men’s (Duryea et al.
2007). Research has yet to explore the growth implications of men falling
behind women in formal education.
In addition, despite the narrowing of the gender educational
gap, the female/male employment-to-population rate ratios rose only
modestly from 1991 to 2010 (Seguino 2016). Figure 1shows the
distribution of countries by female/male employment rates as compared
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ENGENDERING MACROECONOMIC THEORY
Figure 1 Distribution of countries by female/male gross secondary enrollment and
employment rates, 2010.
Source:Seguino(2016).
to gross secondary school enrollment rates in 2010. This suggests that
closing educational gaps is not sufficient to ensure women’s economic
empowerment via employment. Other impediments must be addressed as
well, including women’s unpaid labor burden and insufficient aggregate
demand.
Employment, job segregation, and wages
A number of studies have explored the macro effects of gender differences
in access to paid work and job quality. Those gaps may be the result
of constrained choice at the household level due to (a) women’s
disproportionate responsibility for unpaid care work, (b) stereotypes that
steer women and men into different occupations and sectors of the
economy, or (c) wage gaps in favor of men, with unpaid care work
obligations leading families to select the lowest-paid adult to provide this
work. Alternatively, gaps may be the result of external constraints such as
employer discrimination and insufficient aggregate demand and thus job
vacancies.
Empirical studies primarily employ labor force participation rather than
employment rates as a measure of gender differences in access to paid work.
A weakness of both measures is that they do not reveal hours of paid work,
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remuneration rates, or employment-related benefits. Nor do they indicate
much about job quality, such as working conditions and opportunities for
training and promotion. We also lack data to assess gender differences
in employment in the formal versus informal sectors (Heintz 2006).
The latter in many countries reflects residual unemployment rather than
employment, and thus, employment rates are overestimated, especially in
developing countries. The employment data used in the studies discussed
here are only a rough approximation of a person’s engagement with the
productive sphere of the economy and the returns that yields. Labor force
participation data have the same problems, with the added challenge that
they obscure what the employment status of the person is – unemployed or
employed. This rough indicator of gender equality should be viewed with
some caution.
With that caveat in mind, several authors using panel data for developing
countries have found that gender differences in access to paid work
(measured as labor force participation rates) have sizeable negative effects
on growth (Klasen and Lamanna 2009;Bandara2015). Bandara (2015)
uses gender gaps in effective labor – that is, the gap between male
and female labor force participation rates, adjusted by the gender gap
in average years of schooling – as an explanatory variable. While the
gender gap in labor force participation can reduce economic growth, the
combined effect of gender gaps in labor force participation and education
appears to have even larger negative effects. Bandara’s results indicate
that the gender gap in effective labor has a negative effect on economic
output per worker in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with annual economic
losses estimated to be 5 percent of GDP.
While much of the neoclassical research leads us to infer that greater
gender equality in education and employment raises economy-wide
productivity, a critical question remains: to what extent is women’s
greater relative productivity reflected in higher wages? It is possible that
women who tend to be segregated in more labor-intensive industries in
some countries (semi-industrialized economies [SIEs] with labor-intensive
export sectors) or in part-time, seasonal work are unable to obtain
wages commensurate with their skills. If so, the stimulus to growth from
higher relative women’s employment may be due to the positive effect of
discriminatory gender wage gaps on profits and investment.
On the theoretical side, some authors have modeled access to
employment using an OLG approach, where women’s time allocation
between home production, childrearing, and market work is influenced
by access to infrastructure (Agénor, Canuto, and da Silva 2010;Agénor
and Canuto 2015). Better infrastructure (clean water, roads, electricity)
reduces women’s time spent on unpaid labor (men only do market work),
thereby freeing up time to spend in remunerative economic activities. In
the models, children’s human capital accumulation depends on mothers’
7
ENGENDERING MACROECONOMIC THEORY
human capital, while their health status depends on mother’s health and
her time allocated to care. Women’s bargaining power relative to adult
men in the family depends on the relative level of human capital, which
is itself determined by the relative amount of time mothers allocate to
boys’ childrearing. If more time is invested in sons than daughters in one
generation, in the next generation, men’s and women’s human capital
differ with implications for relative bargaining power within the household.
The models assume that women have higher saving rates than men and
that saving has a positive effect on capital accumulation and growth. There
is, however, a paucity of research on the topic of gender differences in
saving rates, making such an assumption of questionable validity. At a
minimum, more research would be required to clarify this relationship.
Several studies find evidence of gender differences in the marginal
propensity to save, albeit with divergent results. On the one hand, in
SIEs where young women are the primary source of labor in export
factories, higher relative women’s wages increase aggregate saving (Seguino
and Floro 2003). On the other hand, evidence for Kenya shows that
female-headed households have the highest spending, with expenditures
concentrated on food (Kiringai 2004). Such contradictory results make
it difficult to generalize about gender differences in saving rates. What is
clear, however, is that household structure will influence gender behavior
in time allocation, saving rates, and spending patterns.
The assumption of a positive effect of savings on growth is also a
questionable one as it ignores the possibility of hoarding – that savings
may fail to be channeled into investment and capital accumulation. It
also ignores the type of investment. For example, speculative financial
investments may not have positive growth effects, as the Great Recession
in Europe and the United States and Asian financial crises have shown.
The more general point is that many neoclassical models fail to account
for country-specific macroeconomic conditions and structures, thereby
limiting the applicability of results.
An exception is Khera (2016), who employs a dynamic stochastic general
equilibrium OLG model to study the impact of gender-targeted policies
on female labor force participation, the gender wage gap, and aggregate
economic outcomes. The model uses Indian data where informality rates
are very high and female labor force participation rates have been falling.
This two-good model (home and market goods, the latter consisting of
formal tradable goods, informal non-tradable goods, and imported goods)
emphasizes the role of labor market rigidities. Formal sector employers are
modeled as having a relative preference for male workers.
Policies such as those to reduce gender discrimination in formal
employment are found to increase women’s labor supply. However, lack
of sufficient formal job creation due to labor market rigidities leads to an
increase in unemployment and informality, and further widens gender gaps
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in formal employment and wages.3This outcome emerges due to the fact
that the model is able to capture short-run effects of policy (unlike OLG
models discussed above). Combining gender-targeted policies that lower
constraints on female labor participation with reforms that boost formal job
creation (through labor market deregulation), however, improves gender
equality in the labor market and leads to significantly larger gains in GDP,
employment, and formality.
One might quibble with the mechanism by which increased labor
demand is induced in Khera’s (2016) model. Labor market deregulation
is not always associated with greater labor demand;4a more important
determinant of firms’ willingness to hire is aggregate demand (Piasna and
Myant 2017). Labor market deregulation that lowers wages may dampen
spending, resulting in slower employment growth.
Another related set of OLG models explores the growth effects of various
labor market distortions or rigidities and in particular job segregation, with
a key assumption that men and women have the same talent distribution
(Esteve-Volart 2004; Cuberes and Teignier 2016). Esteve-Volart (2004), in
addition, models feedback loops whereby women’s limited access to jobs
contributes to lower investment in women’s education.
Incorporating the role of macroeconomic context
One weakness of these models is the limited focus on occupational
segregation as a micro-level phenomenon, thereby missing the important
role of macro-level factors and structural change. It is notable that gender
job segregation is persistent in countries around the world (International
Monetary Fund [IMF] 2013). Recent evidence is suggestive of increased,
not decreased, job segregation with a rising share of women excluded
from industrial sector jobs that typically offer higher wages and more
opportunity for training and job-related benefits than agricultural work
and service sector jobs (Seguino 2016). The falling ratio of female to
male shares is taking place in a number of countries where manufacturing
employment had become “feminized” in the 1980s and 1990s – Mauritius,
Hong Kong, Morocco, and the Dominican Republic, for example. Results
are consistent with Tejani and Milberg’s (2016) research highlighting the
trend of “defeminization” in the manufacturing sector in middle-income
countries as the capital intensity of production rises.
Defeminization of higher quality jobs is occurring despite narrowing
gender education gaps. Why might this be happening? Given the skill
demands of industrial sector jobs characterized by on-the-job learning,
employers may inaccurately (or accurately) predict that men are the
major breadwinners and, therefore, be unwilling to hire women workers
who are expected to leave the labor market at higher rates due to care
responsibilities. This is more likely to occur in capital-intensive firms
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ENGENDERING MACROECONOMIC THEORY
since the firm’s sunk costs in worker training will yield a lower return
than investments in men. It could also be suggestive of ongoing gender
stereotypes about who has a right to a job when jobs are scarce.
Accompanying the trend of defeminization of manufacturing jobs is the
evidence of premature deindustrialization (Rodrik 2016). According to
Rodrik, the latter is attributable to globalization, due to a decline in the
relative price of manufactured goods on world markets despite productivity
growth, leading to deindustrialization and a decline in labor demand.
This “job squeeze” trend makes it more difficult to eliminate the gender
employment gap.
The cause of falling manufacturing prices is worthy of some additional
exploration since it is macro-level dynamics that structure opportunities for
women to gain access to not only ajob, but also a good job. Future research
seeking to understand gender inequality in employment must take into
consideration to a much greater extent the macro environment, including
the effects of the changing global structure of production as a result of
trade and investment liberalization.
In sum, two themes emerge from a review of this literature: there
is no one-size-fits-all impact of gender equality (however measured) on
growth, and research must take into account a country’s structure of
production, which influences the degree of gender job segregation and
gender income gaps. In addition, there are several weaknesses in the
studies discussed here. First, most models fail to account for the fact that
adequate aggregate demand is required to ensure that increases in female
labor force participation are matched by sufficient labor demand. Second,
increased employment may not reflect an improvement in well-being if
women continue to carry the full load of unpaid labor and if the conditions
of employment and remuneration are poor. And finally, the finding that
an increase in relative women’s labor supply stimulates growth may be due
in part to the effects of gender wage discrimination, which reduces the cost
of labor, thus raising profits and stimulating investment (Braunstein 2012).
Gender and growth in feminist heterodox macro models
The architecture of feminist macroeconomics is suited to the focus
on demand-side factors influencing gendered employment and wages.
This framework is in the tradition of Kalecki (1971), a contemporary
of Keynes, who developed a body of work that investigates how
income distribution affects output, employment, and growth in demand-
constrained economies. Feminist economists have adapted this framework
to account for gender differences in income and employment.
The key mechanism for engendering macro models is to account for
the gender division of labor in both paid and unpaid work. In addition,
models incorporate gender differences in spending patterns. The gender
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differences are then integrated into structuralist macro models, which
reflect the stylized structural features of economies (Taylor 2004). The
resulting models account for the key features of economies: economic
structure (agricultural, semi-industrialized, postindustrial), macro-level
policies that influence relations with the rest of the world (rules
governing trade and cross-border investment and finance), market
structure (oligopolistic versus competitive firms), trade and resulting price
elasticities, balance of payments constraints, key social relationships (such
as intergroup inequality along racial/ethnic lines), and the form and extent
of gendered job segregation. The effects of gender relations in these
models also depend on whether we evaluate the short or the long run.
Further, women’s bargaining power vis-à-vis employers and their access to
important resources such as jobs and credit depend on other macro-level
policies, including monetary and fiscal policies.
The incorporation of the effects of household dynamics and caring
labor also distinguishes these macro models. Though they share basic
assumptions about household bargaining with neoclassical OLG models,
they additionally evaluate the relationship between household structure,
bargaining, and care work, on the one hand, and a country’s economic
structure and macro policy environment, on the other (Braunstein 2015).
Gender job segregation, wage inequality, and economic structure
Several papers emphasize the interaction of gender job segregation, gender
wage inequality, and the structure of production (Braunstein 2000; Seguino
2000a,2000b; Blecker and Seguino 2002; Seguino 2010). Blecker and
Seguino (2002) develop a model of a two-sector economy, representing
conditions in many SIEs where women, to the extent that they gain access
to paid work, are segregated in the labor-intensive manufacturing export
sector, while men are in non-tradables and the capital-intensive export
sector. Markets are oligopolistic, with firms adopting markup pricing. This
combination of labor market and export industry structure has led to
the “feminization of foreign exchange earnings” (Samarasinghe 1998).
Product demand is price elastic in the female export sector, and thus higher
wages for women “squeeze” profits, while, in contrast, “men’s” goods are
price inelastic, and wage hikes for men do not negatively affect profits and
thus investment or employment.
The model shows that under some conditions, higher wages for women
contribute to a decline in export demand that is not offset by an increase in
domestic demand. As such, gender wage equality in this type of economy is
contractionary. That is, it leads to output and employment losses. Both men
and women are likely to be negatively affected by these job losses. When
the female–male wage ratio and the real exchange rate are endogenized,
the model reveals the possibility for exchange rate policy to accommodate
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ENGENDERING MACROECONOMIC THEORY
a higher wage for women. Ultimately, the results depend on the model’s
parameters, which can be calibrated to reflect economic structure and the
impact of shifts in the distribution of income between wages and profits, as
well as between female and male workers.
In a previous study, I extended the two-sector model approach
to consider the role of gender inequality in low-income agricultural
economies (LIAEs) as compared to SIEs (Seguino 2010). I incorporated
both fast-acting gender variables in the short-run model (wages and
employment) as well as capabilities measures that have effects only in the
longer run. In LIAEs, it is men who are concentrated in the export sector,
while women work as subsistence farmers. The effects of gender equality on
the balance of payments differs significantly from SIEs, since improvement
in women’s well-being, access to credit, and other productive resources can
raise domestic food output, reducing the demand for imports (Seguino
and Were 2014).5Because of this difference in structure, and the role
of women in influencing the balance of payments, in the short and long
run, gender equality stimulates growth in LIAEs. In the long-run models,
gender equality is a stimulus to growth in both types of economies, which is
consistent with the findings of the neoclassical models discussed above.
The critical question considered in these models is how economic
structure constrains the possibility for gender wage equality, with a goal
of identifying nodes where public policy may be brought to bear to relax
those constraints. One weakness of these models is that they do not
incorporate the role of social reproduction – that is, the contributions
of time, commodities, and money required to produce, maintain, and
invest in the labor force. Social reproduction affects labor productivity in
the short term – by replenishing workers – and has long-run productivity
effects resulting from the effect of care on human development. This work
includes both paid and unpaid care work and is gendered insofar as women
in particular are tapped to perform caring labor.
Gender, social reproduction, and growth
A new vein of research has emerged, however, to explore the role of
social reproduction in influencing growth (Braunstein, van Staveren, and
Tavani 2011; Braunstein 2015; Braunstein, Bouhia, and Seguino 2017).
The analytical emphasis is on how the distributions of production and
reproduction among women, men, and capital determine investment
and growth and how gender inequality is both cause and consequence
of these relationships. The models show that higher wages for women
not only directly affect aggregate demand, but also could raise labor
productivity and reduce unit labor costs via greater investment in human
capacities. Unlike neoclassical models, which explore the effect of changes
in the distribution of unpaid labor, this model helps to understand the
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endogeneity of both paid and unpaid labor and their feedback effects on
the economy, taking account of demand and other structural features of
economies. Results show that a win–win outcome (greater gender equality
and output growth) is more likely when (1) women and men share
social reproduction more equally, (2) gender wage gaps are small, (3) an
extensive high-quality paid care sector exists, and (4) there is sufficient
investment in reproductive infrastructure to reduce care burdens.
Empirical heterodox studies
Several papers empirically test the theoretical models discussed in the
following. In a previous study, I evaluated the hypothesis that education-
adjusted gender wage inequality had a positive effect on growth in a set of
SIEs for the period 1975–95 via the stimulus to export demand (Seguino
2000b). The sample was restricted to SIEs so as to isolate the role of wages
in these economies where the type of gender job segregation and economic
structure differs from low- and high-income countries. GDP growth is
positively related to gender wage inequality, controlling for standard
variables deemed to influence growth. Congruently, Berik, van der Meulen
Rodgers, and Zveglich (2004) and Busse and Spielmann (2006) found that
gender wage inequality is positively associated with comparative advantage
in labor-intensive goods and thus has a positive effect on economic growth.
The effect of women’s low wages on export demand (produced
predominantly by female labor) and growth should not be surprising. We
might construe these low wages as substituting for currency devaluation, a
policy stance that is more widely understood to have a positive effect on
export demand.6More specifically, in an economy in which women are
concentrated in the labor-intensive export sector, export demand is:
X=AeP
x
Pxψ
Wε(3)
where Xis export demand, Ais a constant, eis the nominal exchange rate,
Pxis the foreign currency price of competing export products from other
countries, ψis the price elasticity of demand for exports, Pxis the export
price, Wis the level of world income, and is the (foreign) income elasticity
of demand. The export price equation, assuming export industries employ
only women and simplifying to exclude intermediate input costs, can be
written as:
Px=τ[wFb](4)
where PXis the domestic price of exports, τis the markup over unit costs in
the export sector, and bis the labor coefficient. It is clear from Equations 3
and 4 that higher women’s wages negatively affect export demand.
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ENGENDERING MACROECONOMIC THEORY
Women supply labor in export sectors in SIEs, which accounts for the
positive effect of gender wage inequality on growth. This result is entirely
consistent with a positive effect of educational equality on growth, since
higher education without commensurate increases in wages lowers unit
labor costs, raises firms’ profits, and stimulates exports and investment.
The moral of this story is not that women’s wages should be suppressed
as a way to stimulate growth, but rather that gender wage inequality is in
part responsible for the rapid growth of SIEs, especially Asian economies.
Promoting gender wage equality requires development and structural
change policies that would make higher women’s wages compatible with
growth.
Mitra-Kahn and Mitra-Kahn (2009) add a new twist to the gender wage
inequality-export-growth nexus. They find that the relationship between
the gender wage gap and growth is nonlinear, and in particular, as
countries move up the industrial ladder, the gender wage gap no longer
has a significant effect on growth. This finding could result from (a) gender
employment discrimination in capital- and skill-intensive industries or (b)
simply the lesser importance of the labor-intensive manufacturing sector in
stimulating growth as a result of the process of technological and structural
change.
Schober and Winter-Ebmer (2011) replicate Seguino (2000b), using
data from a meta-study on gender wage discrimination, and do not find
any evidence that gender wage discrimination might stimulate economic
growth. However, there are several problems with their analysis. First,
they use gender wage residuals from wage decomposition regressions as
the measure of gender wage inequality. Many of the underlying studies
control for variables that are themselves indicative of discrimination (such
as occupational segregation), and so the residuals are not a good estimate
of gender wage gaps. Second, the underlying micro-level studies have
heterogeneous sectoral coverage instead of being restricted to the export
sector, as in Seguino (2000b). In addition, the analysis does not control for
countries’ economic structure, which, at a minimum, should be interacted
with the wage gap variable.
Some have argued that in the longer run, increased demand for
female labor in SIEs will eventually lead gender wage gaps to close. If
relative women’s wages were to rise, however, this would dampen export
demand and investment, resulting in higher unemployment and thus wage
stagnation. This feedback effect is the central problem to be overcome.
Globalization makes this problem worse insofar as firms are now more
easily able to relocate to other lower wage countries, should wages rise.
This “threat effect,” and firm mobility more generally, hold down wage
growth especially in labor-intensive export industries in which women are
concentrated (Seguino 2007). In any case, the evidence is not strong that
discriminatory gender wage gaps are closing (Braunstein 2012). Despite
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substantial gains in education in South Korea, for example, women’s wages
continue to be more than 35 percent below that of men’s (Organisation for
Economic Co-Operation and Development [OECD] n.d.), a gap that has
narrowed only modestly over the last fifty years despite a strong demand
for female labor. This is also the case in Brazil and other SIEs.
In sum, unlike the neoclassical gender and macro literature that find that
all forms of gender equality stimulate growth, heterodox macro research
portrays a more complex picture. These models allow a more specific
rendering of real world macroeconomies in contrast to neoclassical models,
which assume a homogenous structure and gender division of labor.
Heterodox and neoclassical macro models do agree on one thing, however:
gender is a salient macroeconomic variable. Moreover, because gender
equality matters for growth, macro-level policies that influence gender
differences in well-being at the micro level have feedback effects on the
macroeconomy. If we ignore those feedback loops, macro policy could fail
to achieve its goals.
MACRO-POLICY EFFECTS ON GENDER EQUALITY
The most informative studies have explored the impact of globalization
policies (trade, investment, and financial liberalization) and, more
recently, the effects of fiscal and monetary policy.7
Globalization policies
A variety of macro-level policies can contribute to growth and their effects
may conflict. A methodology for capturing macroeconomic impacts is to
employ as explanatory variables the specific policies in question, such as the
degree of trade, investment, and capital account liberalization as measured
by trade shares of GDP, foreign direct investment (FDI), and cross-border
financial flows. Below, I identify the key pathways by which these three
policy indicators produce gender-differentiated effects.
Trade and investment liberalization
Several studies have explored the employment and wage effects of trade
and investment liberalization, the latter measured as FDI. Here I simply
identify some of the major results of this literature, which more than in
other areas, are contradictory. It is not easy to disentangle trade effects from
investment liberalization; it is best instead to analyze the joint effects of
these two policy variables. This is because a large share of FDI to developing
countries is vertical. That is, its purpose is to shift production to lower-cost
production venues with the intent to export to foreign markets.
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ENGENDERING MACROECONOMIC THEORY
Standing (1989) was among the first to note the link between trade
liberalization and the feminization of global labor, referencing the
increased demand for female workers and the downward harmonization
of the quality of men’s jobs to those women held. He identified intensified
firm competition in an increasingly globalized economy as a cause for these
trends, emphasizing the firm’s search for least-cost female labor as a means
to achieve export competitiveness. Since that time, numerous studies have
validated the positive effect of expansion of exports on women’s relative
employment in labor-intensive manufacturing and services (such as tourism
and call centers; Braunstein 2006; Aguayo-Téllez 2011; Staritz and Reis
2013).
Positive effects on women’s share of employment should be viewed with
some caution, however, because the data typically do not account for job
quality. International data on employment fail to capture the full extent of
informal employment (Heintz 2006). Facing intense global competition,
firms have adopted flexible and informal work arrangements that are
temporary, seasonal, casual, and based on unregulated labor contracts.
Due to gender norms about men’s role as breadwinners and women’s as
secondary earners, women tend to be slotted for those jobs (Carr, Chen,
and Tate 2000; Balakrishnan 2002). Of course, as Standing (1989)notes,
the process of informalization has also affected men, leading to a downward
harmonization of labor conditions. Thus, some evidence of greater gender
equality is due to men’s labor market outcomes rather than women’s
improved conditions (Kongar 2007).
Wamboye and Seguino (2015) show that the impact of trade and
investment liberalization on employment depends on the structure of
the economy. They empirically explore the gender employment effects
of trade liberalization in SSA, dividing their sample into three types
of economies: (a) nonmineral non-oil exporters (NMECs), (b) non-oil
mineral exporters (MECs), and (c) oil exporting economies. Results
indicate that trade expansion has a negative effect on women’s absolute
and relative employment chances in NMECs but not MECs. Consistent
with these results, Bussolo and De Hoyos (2009) found that labor-intensive
manufacturing jobs were lost in a number of African economies as a
result of trade liberalization due to competition from Asia, with negative
effects on women’s employment. Further, in agriculture-based African
economies, men are better positioned to produce export cash crops
due to underlying asset ownership patterns, resource inequalities, and
gender roles. These findings are consistent with studies that indicate
trade liberalization has not been as beneficial to women and gender
equality in Africa as in other regions, such as Asia (Aguayo-Téllez
2011).
With regard to the effects of trade and FDI on gender wage inequality,
again, the results are contradictory. In a cross-national study, Oostendorp
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(2009) found that an increase in trade and FDI led to narrower gender
wage gaps for richer countries, but not for developing economies. Given
that trade and investment liberalization have increased the relative demand
for women’s labor in developing countries, this is surprising. One might
theorize that over time, gender wage gaps should narrow as a result.
And yet, studies on Asian economies have found evidence that while in
some cases, gender wage gaps have narrowed with increased trade and
FDI, the discriminatory portion of the wage gap has increased (Maurer-
Fazio, Rawski, and Zhang 1999; Berik, van der Meulen Rodgers, and
Zveglich 2004;Liu2004). Menon and van der Meulen Rodgers (2009),
using a theoretical model of competition and industry concentration,
find that trade openness contributes to a widening of residual gender
wage gaps in India’s manufacturing industries. In Mexico, too, after
initially narrowing,8gender wage gaps have widened in the context of a
declining capital intensity of production and increased share of FDI in
investment (Artecona and Cunningham 2002; Domínguez-Villalobos and
Brown-Grossman 2010).
What might explain the failure of wage gaps to narrow with greater
gender equality in education – especially in rapidly growing export-
led economies that disproportionately employ women? With trade and
investment liberalization, labor-intensive firms that employ primarily
women have become increasingly mobile or “footloose.” The mobility of
firms reduces workers’ bargaining power and thus holds down their wages
(Choi 2006). Insofar as women’s employment is concentrated in mobile
industries, the possibility for trade and investment liberalization to improve
gender equality appears limited.
Baliamoune-Lutz (2007) explored the triangular relationship between
trade, growth, and gender differences in youth and adult literacy rates. SSA
trade effects are compared to those in other regions with a panel dataset
using 3SLS techniques. Her empirical evidence showed that globalization
(measured as trade shares of GDP) and growth have had no effect on
gender equality in non-SSA developing countries and a negative effect
in SSA. That is, integration with the global economy has caused gender
inequality in literacy rates to increase in that region.
In sum, while there has been a feminization of employment in export
industries that are labor intensive, such as garment manufacturing, women
are often stuck in low-wage dead-end jobs with limited opportunities for
skill development. As economies move up the industrial ladder to more
capital-intensive production, there is some evidence that men are the
preferred labor supply, with women’s share of manufacturing employment
declining (Tejani and Milberg 2016). Expansion of the tourism sector and
call centers provides employment for women, but often such employment
is also more precarious and less well paid than men’s jobs in the sector
(Staritz and Reis 2013).
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ENGENDERING MACROECONOMIC THEORY
The most important lesson to be drawn from this literature is that
trade and investment liberalization effects differ by country, depending
on variations in the gender division of labor and the position of the
economy in world trade, partly related to a country’s economic structure.
Insofar as gender equality is a stimulus to growth, trade and investment
policies – via their effect on wages and employment – have the potential to
promote or undermine that goal. Because there is no one-size-fits-all trade
or investment policy that would promote gender equality, countries must
carefully identify how their own economic structures will be affected by
policies to liberalize or regulate trade and investment and trace out the
likely gendered impacts based on the gendered job segregation that exists.
Financial liberalization
Financial liberalization policies have been widely adopted over the last two
decades and have led to the opening up of capital markets to external flows
and, concomitantly, pressures to keep inflation rates low as a means for
countries to attract those flows. A good deal of research links the growth
of household income inequality to financial liberalization (Gonzales et al.
2015).
Scholars have also underscored that financial liberalization brings with it
a number of problems that worsen gender equality (see Elson and Cagatay
[2000]; Braunstein [2012]). First, macroeconomic volatility may increase
with liberalization of capital flows, and women are particularly vulnerable
during such times because (a) they tend to have control over fewer assets
and saving to smooth income, (b) they have greater responsibility for care
of the family, and cuts in public sector budgets during crisis further increase
women’s care responsibilities, and (c) when men lose jobs during crises,
women are often propelled into the labor force to take on more precarious
forms of work.
Second, financial liberalization contributes to a deflationary bias.
Because wealth holders’ real rates of return are negatively affected by
inflation, central banks in countries with liberalized capital accounts feel
pressure to keep inflation low. This leads to contractionary monetary
policy that has negative job growth effects. Tracing out these dynamics
theoretically and empirically should be high on the priority list for gender
and macroeconomics research.
A third channel by which financial liberalization may produce differential
gender effects is the increased opportunity cost of maintaining a higher
level of foreign exchange reserves to self-insure against a speculative
currency attack. According to Rodrik (2006), the opportunity cost of those
reserves is roughly 1 percent of GDP. Any analysis of the costs and benefits
of capital account liberalization would then have to factor in the trade-
off of holding reserves as compared to their alternative use, such as for
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public investment. An additional cost of capital account liberalization is
the impact of increased macroeconomic volatility and risk of crisis on
households. Countries must do a cost–benefit analysis to reconcile the
benefits of capital account liberalization with their substantial costs, not
only to public spending, but also to vulnerable groups, such as women,
most affected by economic volatility. This would suggest the importance
of funding income-smoothing social safety net programs if financial
liberalization were deemed the appropriate policy stance. Conversely,
governments may benefit from managing capital flows via a wide variety of
techniques that act as “speed bumps” to reduce volatility and its subsequent
costs.
Impact of globalization policies on unpaid labor
Floro (1995) was one of the first scholars to note the relationship between
economic restructuring (induced by globalization) and gender effects of
time allocation. Economic restructuring influences the distribution and
intensity of women’s work. Cuts in public sector budgets, for example,
can increase women’s care burden to replace what had been publicly
provided services. Because time use is outside national income accounts,
macroeconomists miss this important policy effect. Moreover, women
may engage in “distress” sales of labor to make up for male partners’
lost income, falling wages, or the higher product prices induced by
devaluations. The lengthening and intensification of women’s labor time
in such cases may have negative effects on children’s well-being, imposing
long-run economic costs. Unfortunately, the paucity of time-use data makes
it difficult to empirically assess the impact of various macroeconomic
disturbances and public sector budget cuts on gender inequality in
time use.
Two studies assess the gendered impact of the Great Recession on time
use in the US and Turkey, respectively. Berik and Kongar (2013)find
that during the US recession, married mothers increased their paid hours
mainly by spending less time on household tasks – childcare, housework,
and shopping. Married fathers, on the other hand, worked fewer hours in
the labor market but did not take on additional unpaid work, which meant
their total work hours declined. As a result, mothers and fathers worked
similar numbers of paid hours. Since mothers were doing less unpaid work
than previously, the recession contributed to greater unpaid labor time
equality. But with the decline in their total workload, fathers had more
leisure time than before the slump and relative to mothers.
In Turkey, increases in men’s unemployment risk have been found
to directly affect their female spouses, who must then spend more time
in both paid and unpaid work (Kaya Bahçe and Memi¸s2013). Men’s
time spent in paid and unpaid work also rises in response to a spouse’s
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ENGENDERING MACROECONOMIC THEORY
unemployment, but by a much smaller amount. Using nationwide averages
in absolute terms, women’s total work time rises approximately eleven times
more than that of men in Turkey in response to spouses’ unemployment.
While these studies do not directly assess the impact of globalization on
unpaid work, there is an indirect link related to the increased volatility
of macroeconomies, as well as the deflationary impact of some aspects of
globalization.
The critical issue is that governments, in weighing policy options, must
take into account the costs of globalization policies and their potential to
undermine the goal of gender equality. The welfare effects of globalization
policies, and in particular, the impact on women’s relative well-being,
are important in their own right. However, insofar as macro-level policies
related to economic openness widen the degree of gender inequality,
long-run growth may be hampered even if, in the short run, there are
expansionary demand-side effects of inequality.
Fiscal policy
Fiscal policy – that is, government spending and taxation – had until two
decades ago been seen as gender neutral in its effects. That changed
with the research on the impact of structural adjustment in developing
countries. More recently, the economic crisis and responses to it have led
to an exploration of this issue in developed economies. For expositional
purposes, I discuss the relevant research by delineating several distinct
categories of government expenditures: public investment in physical
and social infrastructure, ELR programs, and countercyclical and full-
employment policies (and their converse, fiscal consolidation or austerity).
Public investment in physical infrastructure
Public investment typically stimulates employment as businesses hire more
workers to meet increased demand. Moreover, targeted public investment
can leverage or “crowd in” private investment by lowering production costs,
further stimulating aggregate demand and employment growth. Because
public investment can raise economy-wide productivity (Bayraktar and
Moreno-Dodson 2010), it has two beneficial features. It creates fiscal space
in the long run by stimulating income growth, expanding the taxable
income base. Second, well-targeted investment can be anti-inflationary if
it addresses supply bottlenecks that drive up prices. Apart from these
general effects of public investment, the state has the potential to redress
inequalities and discrimination in the household, in asset ownership, and
in labor markets through targeted budget allocations.
The distributional effects of public investment in physical infrastructure
have received attention in recent years, with research identifying a strong
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link between measures of physical infrastructure spending, women’s
unpaid care burden, employment, and the growth of potential output
(Fontana and Natali 2008; Agénor, Canuto, and da Silva 2010; Fontana
and Elson 2014). Using data from Tanzanian time-use surveys, Fontana
and Natali (2008) simulate the employment effects of targeted physical
infrastructure investments that reduce time spent on unpaid care activities.
They demonstrate that such investments, by reducing the time spent
on fetching water, fuel, and other unpaid household maintenance
activities, reduce the care burden and, as a result, raise the earnings
potential of both women and men. According to their simulations, the
time released from unpaid work would raise women’s income by 17.7
percent relative to the economy-wide average, and men’s by 1.6 percent
annually.
Using Brazilian data to simulate the effect on growth of changes in
government spending on infrastructure as a share of GDP, Agénor and
Canuto (2015) find that a 1 percentage point increase could raise annual
output growth between 0.5 and 0.9 percentage points, via the induced
changes in women’s time allocation (to paid work) and their bargaining
power over family resources.
These studies, however, do not estimate feedback loops from increases
in women’s relative employment to other macro variables such as growth,
the trade balance, and inflation. That said, they confirm the modeling
assumption that public investment in infrastructure can promote gender
equality with beneficial economy-wide effects. As such, public investment
of this nature can be self-financing over the longer run due to the positive
growth effects of greater gender equality. The size of effects will depend
on country-level conditions – the types of infrastructure spending and the
impact on men’s and women’s time use.
The evidence does not suggest, however, that gender gaps in employment
will automatically close as a result of jobs created by physical infrastructure
investment. Chakraborty (2010) found that in India, infrastructure
investment lessened unpaid care work, but women’s employment did not
increase. She concludes that complementary employment policies (of the
demand-management type) are also required to ensure the substitution of
market work for unpaid work.
The effects of public infrastructure investment on women’s employment
vary, and there is as yet no consensus on whether the effect is significantly
positive. There is greater agreement, however, that public infrastructure
investments that reduce time spent on hauling water in developing
countries also have beneficial effects on children’s education and, in
Ghana, girls’ school attendance (Koolwal and van de Walle 2010;Nauges
and Strand 2013). This growing body of research is useful for identifying
the kinds of public sector expenditures that would be beneficial for gender
equality in time use and employment, as well as health.
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ENGENDERING MACROECONOMIC THEORY
Public investment in social infrastructure
Social expenditures, because they contribute to gender equality and
long-run productivity growth, could also be classified as infrastructure
investments rather than merely discretionary spending. Investments in
people’s capabilities have a public goods quality with positive spillover
effects on economy-wide productivity. By expanding the productive base of
the economy, such investments generate a flow of revenues into the future,
made easier if increases in human productivity can be converted to higher
incomes.
Social infrastructure spending can relieve women’s unpaid care burden
through publicly funded social services, freeing up time for paid
employment. Further, due to gendered patterns of employment, such
investment creates job opportunities that differentially benefit women
workers. Several studies explore the impact of social spending on job
creation by gender. ˙
Ilkkaracan, Kim, and Kaya (2015) investigate the
potential employment effects of a 20 billion Turkish lira expenditure on
childcare centers and preschools versus housing (the construction sector).
They estimate that an expenditure of this magnitude in the construction
sector would create a total of 290,000 new jobs while the same amount
invested in childcare and preschool would generate 719,000 new jobs. Of
the new jobs created via investments in the childcare and preschool sector,
73 percent would go to women, compared to roughly 6 percent of the
new jobs created via expenditures on public infrastructure and housing
construction.
Similarly, Antonopoulos et al. (2010) find that, for the US, investment
in social service delivery sectors, such as early childhood development and
home-based healthcare, could create twice as many jobs as the same level of
expenditures on physical infrastructure, which creates jobs in construction
and energy. Women are more likely to get these jobs, and among women
who are employed, more disadvantaged women benefit the most. In terms
of efficiency per dollar spent, social infrastructure spending is likely to have
a larger job multiplier and greater effect on gender employment gaps.
De Henau and Himmelweit (2016) develop a macro–micro input–output
model to estimate the impact of public investment in care for a set of
advanced economies. The potential effects of such investment are short
term (women’s unpaid work falls, more jobs are created that women are
able to fill), medium term (wages in the care sector rise, gender wage gaps
fall, and more men enter care work), and long term (gender roles become
less dependent on a gender division of unpaid care work, with benefits for
long-run growth). In their model, two-thirds of newly created jobs go to
women in the care sector compared to one-third in the construction sector.
These studies show that a demand-side stimulus can increase job
opportunities for women and men and, when appropriately targeted,
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produce a differential demand for women’s labor. It serves the additional
purpose of absorbing the increased women’s labor supply that results from
publicly funding care services. This is especially important since efforts to
open up employment opportunities for women in the paid economy, if they
do not address the care burden, can either fail to attain their goal or reduce
women’s well-being due to the “double burden” (Cook and Dong 2011).
Publicly funded care services can also address the problem of the typically
lower wages in that sector as compared to other sectors of the economy.
Evidence shows that wage rates in publicly funded jobs are higher than in
the private sector (Budig and Misra 2010).
Is social infrastructure spending even feasible in the context of the fiscal
austerity environment? It may be, if we rely on a longer time frame than
is typical in terms of the manageability of public sector deficits. This is
because social infrastructure spending can create fiscal space by raising
the productive capacity of the economy (Roy, Heuty, and Letouzé 2009).
Much of the spending on the care sector raises longer-run productivity
by improving the quality of the current and future labor force. Heckman
and Masterov (2007) identify substantial paybacks from early childhood
education, for example. By raising labor productivity, such expenditures
increase incomes, generating tax revenues with which to pay down the debt
incurred to finance the original investment.
Under current rules advanced by institutions such as the IMF, the degree
of fiscal space is circumscribed by limits placed on a country’s public
debt relative to GDP. This approach to establishing debt ceilings defines
fiscal sustainability for the short term and ignores the effect of targeted
public spending on growth over the longer term. As a result, the fiscal
sustainability of this type of public investment is underestimated. Relatedly,
current guidelines for assessing fiscal space and sustainability ignore what
the fiscal space is used for. The result is restrictive fiscal targets, and this has
led to a decline in public investment/GDP ratios in many countries.
To effectively make the rigorous case for the ability of social
infrastructure expenditures that promote gender equality to expand
medium- and long-run fiscal space, more focused empirical research is
required. Targeted studies that estimate the payback of gender equality
investments are pivotal to expanding the discourse and consensus on fiscal
space.
Countercyclical and full-employment policies
A concerning feature of recessions is the resulting widespread destruction
of jobs. How gender interacts with job losses during a recession depends
on the structure of a country’s economy and the sectoral nature of gender
job segregation. In cases where downturns first affect demand in female-
dominated labor-intensive export industries (as a result of crisis among
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ENGENDERING MACROECONOMIC THEORY
trading partners), women’s job losses are likely to exceed men’s. This
occurred during the Asian financial crisis and in developing countries
during the Great Recession of 2008. In contrast, during the most recent
global recession, which began in industrialized countries in the housing
sector, job losses first hit the construction and then manufacturing
industries. Because they are male-dominated in employment, men’s job
losses exceeded women’s at the beginning of the recession (Pearson and
Sweetman 2011).
Employment effects by gender may differ along the trajectory from
downturn to trough to expansion, however. Regardless of which sectors
are first affected by job losses due to downturns, prolonged recessions that
lead to strains on public sector budgets and therefore budget cuts may have
more negative effects on women than men. This is due to women’s greater
employment concentration in government jobs (Grown and Tas 2011).
Prolonged recessions can also lead to hysteresis, thereby lowering long-
run growth rates due to the impact on labor productivity. Insofar as
gender is a stimulus to growth and well-being, the effects of macro-
level phenomena such as business cycles and recessions will need to be
addressed, and countervailing policies to alleviate the burdens of such
downturns developed. Thus, gender-sensitive countercyclical policies are
of interest.
ELR programs are one example of such policies, cushioning the
effects of downturns and reducing gender conflict over scarce jobs. ELR
programs can be used to prevent deskilling and to strategically invest in
infrastructure. The gender effect of such programs has been noted in the
literature. A prominent program in developing countries is the Indian
government’s National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA). This
act establishes a legal job guarantee for 100 days of employment every
year to adult members of any rural household willing to do public work
(mainly unskilled) at the statutory minimum wage. Women’s participation
rate in the program is double their participation rate in the casual
labor market. In 2009–10 women comprised about 48 percent of those
employed by this job guarantee scheme (Dutta et al. 2012; Das et al.
2015).
Full-employment policies more generally are an important component
of any program to promote gender equality. Several studies lay out a set
of macro-level policies to achieve the goal of employment (as compared
to GDP) growth (Onaran 2017). Pollin et al. (2007), for example, develop
an employment-targeted growth strategy for South Africa, using innovative
fiscal and monetary policy tools. Such programs can be tailored to target
women’s relatively more limited access to employment. The main tools
of an employment-targeted program include loan guarantees to facilitate
the expansion of credit to key sectors of the economy (such as small-
and medium-sized enterprises and women farmers) and asset reserve
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requirements to stimulate the extension of credit to firms with large
employment multipliers, along with public investment in infrastructure.
Monetary policy
Regardless of the factors that influence monetary policy (such as
financial liberalization), it is likely to have gender-differentiated effects
on employment, consumption, and children’s well-being with resulting
feedback effects on growth. Only a handful of papers have explored
the impact of contractionary monetary policy on gendered outcomes
(Braunstein and Heintz 2008; Takhtamanova and Sierminska 2009;
Seguino and Heintz 2012), while two papers explore the relationship
between gender representation on monetary policy committees and the
conduct of monetary policy (Diouf and Pépin 2016; Masciandaro, Profeta,
and Romelli 2016).
Braunstein and Heintz (2008), pioneers in this research, found that
after controlling for long-term employment trends, the ratio of women’s
to men’s employment tends to decline during contractionary inflation
reduction in the majority of the developing countries examined. For
the US, Seguino and Heintz (2012) find evidence of a disproportionate
increase in women’s relative unemployment in response to contractionary
monetary policy. In contrast, Takhtamanova and Sierminska (2009)do
not find a link between short-term interest rates and employment in nine
OECD countries (nor do they find significant gender effects).
In terms of the conduct of monetary policy, Diouf and Pépin (2016)and
Masciandaro, Profeta, and Romelli (2016) provide evidence that gender
diversity in central bank boards and chairs affects the conduct of monetary
policy and hence macroeconomic outcomes. Greater relative women’s
representation on central bank boards is inversely associated with inflation
rates and money growth. Diouf and Pépin (2016) suggest that because
women central bankers are more concerned with price stability than their
male counterparts, they are (a) more resistant than men to political
pressures, and (b) this could explain the underrepresentation of women
as central bank chairs. These papers inform about the role of gender
in shaping key macroeconomic institutions. This issue can benefit from
more research, however, to better understand (a) gender preferences on
inflation and unemployment and (b) the relationship between monetary
policy in terms of short-term interest rates and other policy tools, such as
asset-based reserved requirements designed to target credit to key sectors
or groups (Epstein 2007).
More generally, a research agenda that assesses the relationship between
inflation targeting and gendered well-being is a major gap in our
understanding of the relationship between macro policy and gender. The
importance of this area of research is that monetary policy is one of
25
ENGENDERING MACROECONOMIC THEORY
the feedback loops that explains gender equality, which then influences
growth. In the absence of gender-aware monetary policies, governments
could unintentionally undermine their gender equality goals.
Moreover, whether it is men or women who are most negatively affected
by employment losses due to contractionary monetary policies, household
dynamics are affected. Some research shows, for example, that increases
in men’s unemployment lead to greater domestic violence (Macmillan
and Kruttschnitt 2004;Aizer2010), the macroeconomic costs of which
have been estimated to be very high (Duvvury et al. 2013). The effect of
unemployment on domestic violence and household dissolution is not yet
settled. In a study on the United Kingdom, Anderberg et al. (2013) find that
an increase in men’s unemployment decreases the incidence of intimate
partner violence, while higher women’s unemployment increases the risk
of domestic abuse.
There is as yet little research on gender and exchange rate policy. One
recent study, however, looks at the effect of depreciations and appreciations
of the Uruguayan real exchange rate on gender wage gaps with impacts on
domestic violence rates (Munyo and Rossi 2015). In their empirical model,
men are concentrated in tradable industries, such as manufacturing, while
women are more likely to work in nontradable industries, such as the
service sector. Taking account of household bargaining dynamics, they
argue that an increase in the real exchange rate can improve men’s
household bargaining power relative to women, with evidence that this
raises the frequency of domestic violence.
Few macroeconomists take into account the less visible costs associated
with employment loss, wages gaps, and domestic violence. This area
therefore deserves more attention and inclusion in macro models that
evaluate the relationship between gender, family dynamics, and growth.
CONCLUSION
Synopsis of findings
Research demonstrating the effect of gender on the macroeconomy
has invigorated the study of macroeconomics and inequality. Gender
inequality’s effects on the macroeconomy differ in some key ways
from other forms of inequality. A key transmission mechanism is
through the impact on children’s well-being and long-run productivity
growth. Moreover, gender norms and stereotypes that buttress the
gender division of labor with women segregated in low-wage and
unpaid work produce notable supply- and demand-side effects on the
macroeconomy. The challenge going forward is for economists to integrate
the robust findings of this literature into macro models and empirical
research.
26
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Further, in terms of the reverse causality from the macro economy
to gender relations, the evidence shows that a variety of macro-level
policies contribute to (or undermine) gender equality. This research
demonstrates that inequality is not simply a micro-level problem and that
the macroeconomy operates as a structure of constraint on closing gender
gaps in well-being. Gender-aware policies can play an ameliorative role.
Public sector spending on physical infrastructure and social infrastructure
(through public investment in care services), if well targeted, could reduce
the unpaid care burden, enabling women to take on employment. Social
spending on health and education can both reduce gender gaps in these
areas and stimulate demand for women’s labor. Despite public sector
budget constraints, such expenditures are likely to pay for themselves in
the longer run, due to the positive feedback effects of gender equality on
macroeconomic growth. Other tools exist as well, including ELR programs.
Research shows that monetary policy – including both interest rate and
exchange rate policy – also affects gender employment equality. Given
that macro-level policies can narrow and close gender gaps, and that
gender equality under some conditions is a stimulus to growth, effective
policymaking requires that gender dynamics be given a key role in policy
formulation.
Areas for future research
While progress has been made in understanding the relationship
between gender and the macroeconomy, several areas require further
investigation.9Many studies explore gender inequality in employment,
but employment data do not identify the quality of work, including
wages, job security, and other forms of compensation. Second, more
research is needed to understand wage dynamics in models as well
as in empirical work, a task that is hampered by the lack of sex-
disaggregated wage data across time and countries. What factors, for
example, explain the slow pace at which wage gaps have narrowed, despite
the virtual closure of educational gaps? And what is the impact of higher
relative women’s wages on output and employment? Does this differ
according to a country’s economic structure and the pattern of gender
job segregation? Also, while we know more about the gender impact of
some aspects of fiscal policy – such as physical and social infrastructure
investment – additional research is required to quantify those effects.
Further, the impact of macro policies is channeled through a country’s
gender norms and stereotypes. How do norms and stereotypes change
over time? What policies can facilitate gender-enabling changes (such
as attitudes toward a woman’s right to a job when jobs are scarce)?
These questions require answers to better target and design macro-level
policies.
27
ENGENDERING MACROECONOMIC THEORY
Perhaps one of the largest policy research gaps is in the conduct
of traditional macro policy – in particular, full-employment policies,
monetary and exchange rate policy, and conflicts between fiscal policy and
fiscal consolidation. The assumption that macroeconomic policymaking
is gender neutral requires greater scrutiny, as evidenced by several of
the studies reviewed in this survey. Although policymakers may not be
intentionally gender biased, the evidence shows gender-differentiated
effects of macro policy.
And finally, an area not mentioned in this review due to lack of
research on the topic is gender and ecological macroeconomics. Ecological
macroeconomics is an emerging interdisciplinary field that examines the
macroeconomy as part of the ecosystem, accounting for the finite limits of
the planet. Fontana and Sawyer (2016) have authored one of the few papers
on this topic from a Kaleckian/post-Keynesian framework, noted for its
ability to explore distributional dynamics. Although their model does not
address gender, it provides a starting-point for much-needed research that
integrates gender, distribution, the environment, and macroeconomics.
Stephanie Seguino
Economics - University of Vermont
Old Mill 227, Burlington, VT 05401, USA
e-mail: sseguino@uvm.edu
NOTES ON CONTRIBUTOR
Stephanie Seguino is Professor of Economics at the University of Vermont,
USA, and Research Associate at the University of Massachusetts Amherst
Political Economy Research Institute. Her research explores the two-way
relationship between intergroup inequality by class, race, and gender,
and economic growth and development. She is instructor in the African
Program for Rethinking Development Economics (APORDE); Associate
Editor for Feminist Economics,Journal of Human Development and Capabilities,
and Review of Keynesian Economics; and past president of the International
Association for Feminist Economics (IAFFE). She has consulted with a
number of international organizations, including the UNDP, UNRISD,
UNCTAD, World Bank, and USAID.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I am grateful to Caren Grown, Tamoya Christie, Benedicte Leroy De La
Briere, and three anonymous referees for helpful comments and to the
World Bank, which supported this work.
28
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FUNDING
This work was supported by World Bank Group: [grant number NA].
SUPPLEMENTAL DATA
Supplemental data for this article can be accessed at http://dx.doi.org/10.
1080/13545701.2019.1609691.
NOTES
1In the literature, investment is positively related to both profits and sales (demand).
Theoretically, wider gender wage gaps may reduce aggregate demand and thus sales,
thereby dampening investment through the accelerator effect. The net effect of
gender gaps is therefore ambiguous. Though there is little evidence in the literature
that the accelerator effect dominates the profitability effect in terms of gender, the
reader should have in mind that both effects are possible, with the net effect an
empirical question.
2This refers to the Harrod-Domar model, whereby actual growth rates may diverge
from warranted growth rates.
3Policies include increased investment in women’s education and stronger
enforcement of laws against gender discrimination, thereby raising demand for
women’s labor. On the supply side, improvements in safety for women and mobility
raise women’s labor supply.
4Kotwal, Ramaswami, and Wadhwa (2011), also find evidence that labor market
deregulation stimulated job growth in India in the post-reform period.
5Numerous authors have identified the positive effect of gender equality on
agricultural production. See, for example, Doss and Morris (2001)andWorldBank
(2011). Darity’s (1995) noteworthy contribution is a micro-level model for LIAEs with
gender segregation, whereby men seek to maximize their income from export cash
crop production by drawing women out of household/social maintenance activities
including subsistence agriculture production.
6Currency devaluation does not always produce a positive demand-side stimulus,
especially in developing countries with rigid imports. The effect may in fact be
contractionary (Krugman and Taylor 1978). A fall in women’s wages might also
be contractionary, but for different reasons – lower women’s wages may reduce
aggregate consumption. However, in export-led economies, that decline is unlikely
to outweigh the positive effects on investment and exports.
7Earlier work econometrically explored whether economic growth itself was found to
improve gender equality. That research yielded ambiguous results, and it became
clear that growth itself is too broad a category, necessitating a focus on specific
policies (Duflo 2012).
8Aguayo-Téllez, Airola, and Juhn (2010) find evidence that trade liberalization
(specifically, the NAFTA agreement) increased the demand for women’s labor
in the labor-intensive manufacturing sector in Mexico and reduced gender wage
inequality.
9The Supplemental Online Appendix discusses in greater detail avenues for future
research, focusing on areas where adding a gender dimension would sharpen macro
models and increase the relevance of their results.
29
ENGENDERING MACROECONOMIC THEORY
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Washington, DC: World Bank.
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... De articularse con políticas laborales, la inversión en la economía del cuidado puede además contribuir a reducir las brechas de género en el mercado laboral, a través de la mejora en la calidad y cantidad de empleos en sectores tradicionalmente feminizados (cepal, 2021d). Asimismo, el acceso de las mujeres a mejores salarios y condiciones laborales no solo afecta directamente a la demanda agregada, sino que también podría aumentar la productividad del trabajo y reducir los costes laborales unitarios (Seguino, 2020). Por otro lado, la inversión pública y privada en cuidados redunda en una mejora en el bienestar social general. ...
... De hecho, la provisión de infraestructura pública y social de cuidado de calidad puede reducir las desigualdades educativas que afectan a niñas y niños. A largo plazo, además, esta mejora impacta en las capacidades laborales, sociales y económicas de la sociedad en su conjunto (Seguino, 2020). La inversión en cuidados contribuye, asimismo, a lograr un impacto positivo en la disminución de la pobreza y la desigualdad, debido a su rol en el cierre de las brechas en la participación laboral y remuneración entre hombres y mujeres (Seguino, 2020). ...
... A largo plazo, además, esta mejora impacta en las capacidades laborales, sociales y económicas de la sociedad en su conjunto (Seguino, 2020). La inversión en cuidados contribuye, asimismo, a lograr un impacto positivo en la disminución de la pobreza y la desigualdad, debido a su rol en el cierre de las brechas en la participación laboral y remuneración entre hombres y mujeres (Seguino, 2020). ...
Chapter
“Los cuidados sostienen la vida y contribuyen al bienestar físico y emocional de las personas y del planeta. Es un trabajo esencial para el funcionamiento de nuestra sociedad, el cual, históricamente, tanto si se realiza de manera remunerada o no remunerada, ha recaído en las mujeres”, escribe Belén Sanz, representante de onu Mujeres en México. La COVID-19 evidenció que sólo los sistemas de cuidado pueden reparar el daño causado por las desigualdades que laceran nuestra sociedad. El concepto de cuidado ha cobrado así fuerza analítica en las discusiones políticas, académicas e institucionales. Este libro ofrece diversos acercamientos al tema. Subraya el papel del Estado en la construcción de sistemas de cuidados, el valor de las comunidades que lo enfrentan cada día, de la sociedad civil que cuida generaciones y el medio ambiente, de las y los creadores que cuidan la palabra y la memoria. Ubica las fuerzas contenidas y alertas, en clave de género, ante la necesidad de cuidados diversos e integrales que nos permitan construir una sociedad igualitaria, incluyente y respetuosa de los derechos humanos, hasta que —como señalan las mujeres zapatistas— “la dignidad se haga costumbre”.
... The gender impact of macroeconomic changes has become increasingly important in the recent literature (Stotsky, 2006;Seguino, 2020). Price changes through inflation are a particular macroeconomic change, which, to some extent, is an overall outcome signal from the interaction of all parts of the macroeconomy and political economy (Koester et al., 2021;Hall et al., 2023). ...
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This paper explores the distributional and welfare impact of the cost-of-living crisis in Europe, differentiated by gender, thereby addressing the gap in the literature on gender-specific effects of inflation. Using household consumption data linked to price changes between April 2021 and July 2023 across six European countries, it examines how different consumption patterns between male-and female-headed households influence their exposure to inflation. By relying on the full distribution of household-specific inflation rates and quantile regression approach, the results show gender-specific disparities in inflation exposure and inequality. Across countries, women-led households are more impacted by heating and electricity inflation, while men are more affected by motor fuel and services inflation; in both cases, gender disparities diminish with rising income. The paper further evaluates the welfare changes attributable to inflation by estimating a behaviourally-adjusted welfare effect. Building on the Atkinson welfare measure, we decompose the change in welfare into equity and efficiency components, differentially for male-and female-headed households. By doing it, the paper enriches our understanding of the differential impact of inflation across household types, providing information for designing better and more targeted policies. JEL Codes: D12, D31, D60, E31, I30, J16
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Este trabalho faz parte do esforço por evidenciar, discutir e analisar as diversas conexões e implicações da macroeconomia e as desigualdades de gênero. Entendemos que há dimensões da macroeconomia que evidenciam estas disparidades de maneira mais clara que outras, ainda quando isto não garante decisões políticas alinhadas a diminuir ou erradicar as mencionadas desigualdades. Entendemos que, ainda quando não aparentes, estas disparidades são transversais à economia toda. Desigualdades não visíveis referem, por excelência, ao trabalho doméstico e de cuidado não remunerado, restrito à esfera doméstica e ignorado pela economia mainstream. O empenho em visibilizar as desigualdades de gênero é uma empreitada de longa data na economia feminista e, particularmente, na macroeconomia. Diversas autoras têm contribuído para a teorização e conceituação do setor doméstico e do cuidado na economia. Esta perspectiva destaca a dependência das sociedades em relação aos trabalhos de cuidado e doméstico realizados pelas mulheres de forma não remunerada, defendendo assim sua importância na economia do mundo real (GONZÁLEZ, 2020). Trata-se de atividades marcadas por relações de gênero que impacta o mercado ao reproduzir a força de trabalho, atual e futura. Estas propostas desafiam o entendimento e o funcionamento da economia dominante ao expor a desigualdade de gênero preexistente e que molda as dinâmicas econômicas nos níveis definidos como micro e macro (DOSS, 2021a; SEGUINO; HEINTZ, 2012).
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