On April 27, 2018, at the third two Koreas summit in South Korea, the president of
South Korea Moon Jae-in and the chairman Kim Jong Un promised to open a new
path of peace. The two Koreas seemed to successfully handle problems between
them. However, based on the previous behaviors of North Korea, we should not
be too optimistic. The reason why I write this paper in this peaceful mood is
that paying attention to national security is always worthwhile. Many scholars
have found several reasons for North Korea’s provocations against South Korea.
However, there is a lack of empirical support regarding them. I try to test and find
the reasons for North Korea’s provocations. I use multivariate regression and Prais–
Winsten regression to test my hypotheses. Domestic stability and power succession
have statistically significant relationships with the number of provocations, but the
results are quite mixed.