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Livestock sector in the Ngorongoro District:
analysis, shortcomings and options for improvement
A report for GIZ by:
Pablo Manzano, PhD
pablo.manzano.baena@gmail.com
Lucas E. Yamat, Msc
leyamat@yahoo.com
International consultants on pastoralism
TABLE OF CONTENTS
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Ngorongoro District in northwest Tanzania is a world-renowned area framed by the
Serengeti National Park, the Rift Valley and the Kenyan border, hosting the famous
Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA) - the most important area for wildlife tourism and
foreign revenues source of the country. 80% of the population in the district are Maasai
pastoralists who earn their livelihood out of pastoralism and a further 11% are Batemi people
with agro-pastoralism livelihoods. The future of the Ngorongoro district presents some
development challenges strongly linked to economic, environmental and demographic
factors. Stagnating livestock numbers indicate that the natural resource base is basically at
its limit; combined with a booming population, the number of poor/destitute households
has increased over the years. Past projects have not been sufficiently been able to modify
this reality: the trend continues in the present to the dismay of Government of Tanzania’s
vision of a modernized and commercialized livestock sector by 2025, with emphasis on
value addition to livestock products, competitive markets, and sustainable livestock
development. As such, a detailed exam is pending on what the contribution of livestock in
the district to that agenda could be. The central aim of this report is to analyze and evaluate
shortcomings and options for improvement, especially on how to increase the revenues
from livestock sector in the Ngorongoro district.
The consultants compiled information for this report in collaboration with two District
extension officers by visiting nine (9) wards of the Ngorongoro District to meet pastoralists,
targeting those with a sizeable amount of livestock heads and therefore with a relevant
potential role in the future. The fieldwork lasted for two weeks and a total of 155 persons
attended the nine meetings. The evaluation consisted of focused group discussions where
key questions were asked to the audiences on wealth, drought losses and coping strategies,
markets, services received and future perspective. Further to field interviews, visits were
conducted to different key experts and expert teams from both governments and non-state
actors in Arusha, Dodoma and Dar es Salaam. Field observations of past investments were
also done.
The findings from this analysis revealed a huge livestock loss in the Ngorongoro district,
especially during the droughts. During the 2017 drought the Ngorongoro division reported
a loss of 77,389 cattle, 72,881 goats and 78,490 sheep, with no economic return left. When
compared with the livestock count the previous year, it translates into a total loss of 70% of
livestock that can probably be extrapolated to the rest of the district. The work from the
consultancy team revealed that during the 2009 drought similar cattle losses were reported
in Nainokanoka, Sinoni and Sendui villages, ranging from 71% to 83% and 86% respectively.
Donkey is also a big issue in the district but may not have received much attention. The
widespread stealing of donkeys for skin sale in Kenya is reported to be serious problem. The
loss of 7,177 donkeys at NCA during the 2016-2017 drought had dramatic consequences for a
local population that depends on these animals for basic transport functions. With regards
to livestock losses from droughts, different strategies including capital accumulation,
buying fodder, destocking in the dry season and livelihood diversification were employed by
local communities to respond to these extremes. However, these strategies have
sustainability problems from both environmental and economic perspectives. Behind them
are inefficiencies of markets and poor access to early warning information, absence of skills
and poor financial management among the pastoralists. The lack of vision from
development stakeholders is particularly worrying. Any intervention in pastoralist settings
seems to be affected by a limited understanding of the multidisciplinary relationships
between the different livelihood aspects of pastoralism. Additionally, interventions only
envision changes among the primary sector of the economy, completely disregarding
actions that strengthen the industrial (secondary) and tertiary (services) sectors, even if
related to livestock. The need to transfer much of the growing pastoralist population into
these sectors in order to achieve economic sustainability in the long term seems completely
ignored, and the importance of education to this regard seems totally ignored, with lack of
educational facilities in the district that enable professional diversification. There are also
severe gaps in education delivery: in 2014 only 40,372 children at primary school age were
actually enrolled in NCA, whereas ca. 70,000 would be expected if school attendance there
was to keep pace with the rest of the district.
This report also includes an estimate on how much money is getting lost through the
different livestock sector inefficiencies observed, as well as the potential for income
improvement in the primary sector of Ngorongoro district’s economy if such inefficiencies
are tackled. The estimates used for potential improvement, derived from the field
information collected, can be 50% through improved drought management, 50% through
improved markets management, 25% through improved management of breeds and 25%
through milk marketing and processing. These improvements could triple the income
provided by livestock, showing that the sector in the Ngorongoro District has very
promising conditions to support value-added initiatives because of its privileged position
between the Serengeti National Park, Lake Eyasi and Lake Natron, with a well-established
asset – the Ngorongoro Conservation Area NCA, and with a yet unexploited asset of
exceptional cultural landscapes constituted by the Batemi highlands. Even if the income
from the livestock-dominated primary sector is improved, however, it will not be possible to
take all District population out of poverty and destitution – and less so if current population
growth rates are sustained. Such a scenario will only delay crises that bring widespread
conflict and severe troubles to sustain the successful ecotourism industry in the Arusha
Region. Hefty investments on service delivery, particularly on education at all levels, can
improve incomes by moving people out of the primary sector and – more importantly – can
keep population growth under control, thereby bringing economic sustainability.
The recommendations of this report focus in tackling inefficiencies and in exploiting the
full potential of the livestock sector in the Ngorongoro district, and are as follows:
Diversify the economy so to reduce concentration on the primary sector, through the
establishment of livestock industries that add value to livestock products, including
leather, dairy products and certified meat products. For this aim, in-situ skills devel-
opment institutions should be promoted within the district that should be managed
by private sector or in the form of Public-Private-Partnership to reduced ineffective-
ness and enhance sustainability. 100% enrollment in primary school must be
achieved as soon as possible in order to diversify livelihoods, raise incomes and stop
population growth.
Train local communities on financial management and the use of mobile money,
providing early warning systems, and promote the incorporation of youth in such as-
pects of livestock keeping, to move from a capital/asset-dominated economy to a
cash/transactions-dominated one.
The government, through own resources or leveraging support from donors, should
improve of infrastructures – especially roads permeable to wildlife, and border posts
– to facilitate livestock marketing and revenue collections, as well as rationalize poli-
cies and regulations under the East Africa Common Market protocols to facilitate
cross-border livestock trade within Tanzania and with neighboring countries.
Improve extension services in the District to deliver complex breed management, to
provide veterinary services and to deliver early warning systems to enable pastoral-
ists to utilize markets efficiently. Private sector should be allowed to spearhead pro-
vision and delivery of the services that are economically feasible, and local pastoral-
ists should engage in such services, provided with adequate training in the district.
Improve knowledge on pastoralist livelihoods among institutions in the district,
moving away from attempts to improve rangeland management strategies already
optimized by pastoralists historically and deepening knowledge on social and eco-
nomic factors that may be disrupting rangeland usage rules.
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
ASDP II – Agriculture Sector Development Programme, phase two
EAC – East African Community
FAO – United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization
FEWSnet - Famine Early Warning Systems Network
IUCN – International Union for Conservation of Nature
LGCDP – Local Governance and Community Development Programme
MLF – Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries
NCA – Ngorongoro Conservation Area
NCAA – Ngorongoro Conservation Area Authority
NDC – Ngorongoro District Council
NGO – Non-Governmental Organization
OBC – Otterlo Business Corporation
OIE – World Organization for Animal Health
PALISEP – Pastoralist Livelihood Support and Empowerment Programme
PEDEP – Primary Education development Programme
PHSDP/MMAM – Primary Health Services Development Programme/Mpango wa
Maendeleo wa Afya ya Msingi
SEDEP – Secondary Education Development Programme
SENAPA – Serengeti National Park
TLMI – Tanzania Livestock Modernization Initiative
TLMP – Tanzania Livestock Master Plan
TLU – Tropical Livestock Unit
TRA – Tanzanian Revenue Authority
TZS – Tanzanian Shilling
URT – United Republic of Tanzania
USD – United States Dollar
VSF-Be – Veterinaries without borders Belgium
1.- INTRODUCTION
The Ngorongoro District is situated in northwest Tanzania, framed by Serengeti
National to the west, the Kenyan border to the north and the Rift Valley to the east and
south – including Lakes Natron and Eyasi. With a size of 14,036 km2, it is situated in the
Arusha region, one of the most important areas for wildlife tourism and foreign revenue
source of the country.
Figure 1. Map of Ngorongoro district in Tanzania, with protected areas indicated.
While the district hosts the Ngorongoro Conservation Area to the south of the district
(Fig. 1), 80% of the local population are Maasai people that earn their livelihood out of
pastoralism, a further 11% being Batemi people with agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Hence,
even if the current developments of the District as a whole may be directed to tourism
(Slootweg 2017), livestock production is still the major livelihood source for most of its
population. Indeed, the lack of opportunities to participate in such alternative economic
sectors remains a source of frustration for much of the local population, e.g. in the
Loliondo division, where it is perceived that such alternative sectors take away their land
at no benefit to themselves (Mittal & Fraser 2018:12).
The future of the district
presents some development
challenges (Slootweg 2019) that
have a strong link to economic,
environmental and
demographic factors. A
booming population (Figure 2)
that displays an annual
increase of ca. 4 % is combined
with livestock numbers that, in
spite of variations from year to
year, do not increase. As a
consequence, the number of
households falling into poor to
destitute categories is
increasing over the years,
while those who do have enough livestock to provide for enough family income remain
the same. This indicates that the natural resource base is at its limit under the current
economic structure of the district and that previous projects have not been able to
sufficiently modify this reality.
The Tanzanian Government, in its development agenda, aims for achieving middle
income in the country for 2025 (Moyo et al 2012), currently defined as 4035 USD per
capita (World Bank 2016). While trends in the district do not seem to keep pace with the
country’s development agenda, a detailed examination of the contribution of livestock
should be considered. Given that the livestock production in Tanzania does not cover
the total demand of animal products, and that the situation in the East African region is
Figure 2. Evolution of the human population at
Ngorongoro District (red) and NCA (blue), in
thousands. Data compiled from McCabe et al (1993)
and Slootweg (2017b).
similar (Michael et al 2018), it becomes clear that the sector has a higher potential. It is
particularly valuable to detect inefficiencies and working them out in order to increase
the revenues from the livestock sector; that is the central purpose of this report.
&
2.- METHODOLOGY
To compile information for this report, the consultants visited the Ngorongoro District,
surveying a total of nine wards, from the 10th to the 24th of June 2018 (Table 1). They met
local herdsmen and women accompanied and assisted by two District extension officers
(Kaaienye Samson Laizer and Frank Shedafa). Respondents were selected among those
with a sizeable amount of livestock heads, in order to target that sector of the population
that is having livestock as a main source of income and also with a relevant potential
role in the future. That group of livestock keepers has been observed to keep constant
numbers along time, even if the number of destitute population is increasing (Slootweg
2019), and they have sufficient financial capacity to undergo future investments. A total
of 155 persons attended the nine meetings, designed as focused group discussions. The
meetings consisted of semi-structured collective interviews where key questions were
asked to the audience concerning the amount of livestock held, losses during 2017
drought, availability and use of markets, drought management, financial tools,
evaluation of extension services, role of youth in the future as well as whether they are
aware if the system is up to the limit, and perception of past projects.
Table 1. Wards visited during the field work.
Date Visited ward
Monday 11th June Nainokanoka (Ngorongoro division)
Tuesday 12th Kimba (Ngorongoro division)
Wednesday 13th Endulen (Ngorongoro division)
Thursday 14th Arash (Loliondo division)
Saturday 16th Orgos orok (Loliondo division)
Sunday 17th Ololosokwan (Loliondo division)
Monday 18th Digodigo (Sale division)
Tuesday 19th Malambo (Sale division)
Wednesday 20th Engaresero (Sale division)
In addition to the field interviews, visits were conducted with different key experts or
expert teams from both government and non-state actors (NGOs, CSOs and
Development Partners) in Wasso/Loliondo, Arusha, Dodoma and Dar es Salaam. This
included a meeting with Ngorongoro District officers at the District Office and another
one with the team of the NGO PALISEP in Loliondo (Friday 15 th June), data-gathering
sessions at the District Office in Loliondo (Thursday 21st) and at NCAA offices (Friday
22nd), a meeting with OBC in Arusha (Friday 22nd) and a meeting with VSF-Belgium also
in Arusha (Saturday 23rd). During travel, field observations were done from past
investments and projects, including water infrastructure and slaughtering facilities,
milking processing units, provision of intensive livestock breeds, etc. A final feedback
meeting was held in Arusha on Thursday, September 5th 2018 for an audience of 40
people including District and Region officers, District councillors, Universities, NGO
staff and GIZ & ECHO staff.
This report has been structured into a diagnosis of the observed situation, compiled
from interviews and hard data, an economic estimate of inefficiencies, and a section on
recommendations for action.
'
3.- DIAGNOSIS
3.1.- LIVESTOCK LOSSES
As is the rule in pastoralist systems that depend on the natural resource base, the
Ngorongoro district displays a significantly variable number of livestock that depends
on the yearly climate conditions. When analyzing the trends for livestock population at
the NCA, derived from long-term reliable census data (Figure 3; Annex 1), a limitation of
ca. 125,000 TLU in the very best years is evident, with great, drastic decreases in some
years. The livestock system in the area is therefore a typical rangeland system in
disequilibrium (Behnke et al 1993). This means that, if left to natural dynamics, the
system has big cyclic capital losses that directly impact on the overall profitability of the
sector. As an example, in 2017’s drought the Ngorongoro division, i.e. the NCA zone, is
reported to have lost 77,389 heads of cattle, 72,881 heads of goats and 78,490 heads of
sheep without any economic return left (NDC 2017) which, when compared with the
livestock count the previous year (Tawiri 2016), translates into a total loss of 70% of the
livestock. Further work from the consultancy team revealed that, during the 2009
drought, the cattle losses in Nainokanoka, Sinon and Sendui villages ranged from 71% to
83% and 86%, respectively (NDC 2009).
Figure 3. Evolution of the livestock herd in NCA since 1960, expressed in Tropical Livestock
Units (see Annex 1 for detailed numeric data).
!
The data compiled by the consultants during the field work indicates that the loss
experienced by the average herder interviewed is 35% in terms of TLUs. While this does
not correspond to the percentage of losses reported by NDC (2017), it is reasonable to
expect that the herders interviewed were more resilient than the average, as livestock
keepers with a certain investment capacity and therefore a sizeable herd were selected.
The methodology automatically discarded herders that had lost most or all their herd –
smallest herders would also have less resilience because of less political power within
communities or less
purchasing power for
fodder, transport by
truck, etc. Finally, the
total losses computed
were 41%, indicating that
larger herders may have
a slight trend towards
higher losses (Figure 4) –
possibly because of
better care given at
smaller herd sizes,
making sense in case
larger livestock keepers
have to delegate care in
hired labour that will
not take as much care as
if the herd was theirs. In
any case, our data do
not aim to be
representative for the
district, as the sampling
was not designed that
way.
3
Figure 4. Relationship between herd size and ratio cattle/small
ruminants (“shoats”) among interviewed livestock keepers,
before (blue) and after (red) the 2016-17 drought. A significant
herd reduction among livestock keepers is visible, as is a shift
from cattle to small ruminants.
The response from the local population to such crisis in the Ngorongoro District has
been the usual one among pastoralists who have no financial or market means to
respond differently (Manzano 2017). The accumulation of capital in terms of heads of
livestock before a drought makes sense from an individual point of view, thereby
increasing the chances to be left with some heads to rebuild the herd after the crisis
(Næss & Bårdsen 2010, IUCN 2012). Unfortunately, this is a strategy that has
sustainability problems from a collective point of view both from the environmental and
the economic perspective. It contributes to the deterioration of the natural resource
base, increasing grazing at a critical time where grass growth rate is low or nil, and it
contributes to plummeting of meat prices. Such strategies contribute also to a poor
perception of pastoralist from outside observers.
The question is therefore: What tools are, in theory, available to escape that logic?
Fodder banks are routinely suggested by development cooperation agencies and
governments as a way to cope with scarcity times. Selling some of the animals at the
drought onset and using that cash to keep others alive is a strategy that would minimize
losses. Because of such narrative, the consultancy team has extensively asked that
question in the discussion groups. However, the responses received are consistently
pointing out to a very high prize of fodder resources, especially when prices go up
during crisis due to high demand and low offer (TZS 60,000 for a 70 kg bag, a cow
needing 2-3 kg a day). Consequently, a maximum of 5-10 cows can sometimes be saved
through fodder provision, and at a very high economic cost.
Destocking strategies, also routinely suggested, also ignore the reality on the ground.
The experience from the last drought that hit during the 2016-2017 cycle has shown that
the few people that could get alerts from ward officers and local extensionists were
getting them by June 2017, at a time when drought was evident and consequences were
already been suffered generally. Livestock keepers also complain about the type and
timing of information received, in the sense that it is only provided during crisis times
or that it only has a negative character. Alerts are given about droughts or floods, always
inviting to destock, but in words of one of the interviewees, “it seems to never be a good
time for restocking”. Destocking also implies high skills in financial literacy in order to
manage large quantities of cash. Such management is alien to a population that has only
recently gotten access to limited financial services, and for which the rate of penetration
of new efficient tools such as the mobile money is still very low.
6
The widespread external narratives on climate change, not being put in context as a part
of a global change phenomenon, have also impacted the perception of livestock keepers
in the district. Climatic change promoting the encroachment of invasive species was
widely and repeatedly mentioned as a worrying issue, creating a feeling of “shrinking
land” that may also be related to attitudes towards conservation initiatives in the district
(Mittal & Fraser 2018). Interestingly, the sustained numbers of livestock observed in the
long term (Figure 3) indicate that that such “shrinking land” perception is actually not
based on facts. Neither does the observation of pasture species by the consultancy team,
as no alien species have been observed to invade local rangelands. There is indeed a
problem with spread of indigenous unpalatable species, but this seems to be more
related with the grazing of palatable species at wet season grounds during the dry
season – in short, a disruption of the correct traditional rangeland management. There
is a very certain possibility that people may identify the lack of pasture resources with
external factors that come as a course of which they are not responsible, while the root
causes may be much more correlated to population expansion and a socio-ecological
system that is at its limits to provide income for such high people numbers. Poverty and
dispossession may be forcing people to ignore indigenous governance rules steering
that traditional rangeland management – designed for the preservation of the natural
resource base in the long term – because of their urgent needs in the short term
(Manzano & Slootweg 2017).
The evidence for the social system being at the verge of the crisis is not only visible in
the increase of families that are in poverty/destitute economic levels (Slootweg 2019),
but also because there is a steady shift from cattle towards small ruminants that have
gone to ca. 8% of the TLUs in the 1960s to a maximum 26% in the present decade, with
peaks during good years and valleys after crises (Figure 5, Annex 1 for NCA data). The
explanation is that all those families that are on the verge of losing economic
sustainability are abandoning the risk-avoiding strategy of keeping cattle – a livestock
species that is less prolific but has higher survival in times of crisis – and instead going
for small ruminants with higher reproductive rates, but at the expense of an economic
resilience loss. This strategy is common in other pastoralist systems in Africa subjected
to similar demographic stresses (Manzano & Slootweg 2017). If the percentage of small
ruminants has not advanced further, it is probably because of the increased trend of
pastoralists in the field not owning most of the livestock they care of, as it is increasingly
*
owned by external investors – very often descendants of the local community that have
gotten alternative jobs.
Figure 5. Evolution of the cattle/small ruminant ratio with regards to human population in NCA.
It turns out that the percentage of shoats among the people interviewed increased after
the drought (Figure 4). This seems to be in contradiction with the general principles on
management differences between shoats and cattle, as well as with the general data on
droughts in NCA (Figure 5). The interpretation is not that people are being left out with
more shoats. People are actively going for shoats when they become poor, as it is a
reasonable economic strategy as a short term strategies for quick asset building; but in
the long term it implies an increased risk of losing more heads of livestock during
future droughts.
Donkey loss, which is an issue that may not have received much attention, is a worrying
problem in the district. The loss of 7,177 donkeys at NCA during the 2016-2017 drought
(NDC 2017), or one donkey for every 10 cows lost, has had dramatic consequences for a
local population that depends on these animals for basic transport functions. In the
Loliondo and Sale divisions, especially near the border with Kenya, losses from drought
are further aggravated by widespread stealing of donkeys for skin sale in Kenya. As
reported by the local population, it is not steered by any type of mafia, as frequently
heard for the current African donkey crisis (Box 1), but rather done by village youngsters
looking for quick and easy money.
3.2.- MARKETING AND MARKET INFRASTRUCTURES
3.2.1.- MEAT MARKETS
Inefficiencies in the livestock sector in the Ngorongoro district are also caused by
markets. According to the information gathered by the consultancy team, very radical
differential sale prices exist between the wet season and the dry season, with prices at
the end of the former doubling the ones obtained at the end of the latter. This is mainly
related to the body condition of the animals but also because of the reduced push to sale
after the wet season because of the better economic status of the households. While
most of livestock keepers are not “playing” with the market in order to achieve a higher
income, some notable exceptions1 are showing how younger, more dynamic livestock
keepers are coping with crises and achieving a more respectable position through skilled
market management.
Markets are greatly conditioned by the poor state of roads that connects the district with
auctions centers within or beyond its borders. The price of fodder, mainly used during
crisis times, is known to be more expensive inside the district because of the lack of
tarmac roads and the poor state of dirt roads. The first phase (50 km) of the first tarmac
road in the district, that would connect Ololosokwan through Wasso/Loliondo with Mto
wa Mbu and further to Arusha is only schedule to open in 2021, and still ca. 200 km of
highway will have to be built for a full connection. Exporting goods from the district
becomes additionally challenging because of such infrastructure problem, even if the
presence of small slaughter slabs (Figure 6) is widespread in the district to facilitate
internal trade and consumption – cooling/freezer infrastructures aren’t available either.
There is a very obvious market gradient towards Kenya that local produces are very
aware of – the closer to the border, the better prices are achieved, and the Ndagoret
market in Kiserian, southwest Nairobi, is known to be the one that provides best prices
in the region, much better than in other important urban centers such as Arusha. The
Tanzanian Government agenda, however, is greatly influenced by the insufficient
production of meat at the national scale, which motivates the formulation of strategies
to bridge that gap and reserving national production to national consumption (MLFD
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2015, Michael et al 2018). This may be the reason why, so far, no road to the main border
post with Kenya in Posumoru is planned – in spite of the buoyant trade taking place in
that area, with the Kenyan markets providing cheap industrial goods and buying basic
agricultural products at good prices – and for several hurdles and taxes for border trade,
such as the full implementation of Act No. 17/2013 on Livestock Diseases from 2018
onwards. The latter implies the payment of an export or cross-border fee, the
requirement to use a vehicle and to have a trade license, thereby excluding pastoralists,
and the need to pay an export permit justified by OIE requirements, but difficult to
implement for the population residing near the border. Because of the strong pull from
the Kenyan market, given the higher prices, and the easier accessibility to the Kenyan
market at least from Loliondo and Sale divisions, the opportunities offered to
pastoralists are too tempting to comply with the system that the Tanzanian Government
would like to see.
Figure 6. Slaughter slab at Endulen.
However, through MLF, the government is in a position to rationalize the trade policies
with neighboring countries particularly within EAC. The Ministry reports to have a clear
commitment to harmonize trade related regulations through EAC’s Common Market
Protocol and to formulate or review them for effective implementation of regional
and/or international agreements. By recognizing that livestock, livestock products and
by product that are exported and imported are key to the livelihoods of traders,
pastoralists and agro pastoralists in Tanzania, MLF is responsible and mandated to‐
enforce stipulated laws, rules and regulation related to livestock trade facilitation, and
this is supported by a network of regional cross border trade. Therefore, the ministry‐
has planned in the Fiscal Years 2018 & 2019 to construct new marketplaces located at the
borders of Longido and Bugigwe and rehabilitate a further three in Mrusagamba,
Mtukula and Buhigwe.
In conjunction, the government’s aim is to enable officers to frequently undertake the
operations along the cattle auctions and markets to end-livestock illegal businesses and
thereby to ensure that livestock reaches slaughtering points. This is to ensure that
livestock racketeering is eliminated for the benefit of the country and people. Some of
the livestock control measures include permits which are designed for livestock export
movement control purposes, and also for generation of government revenue.
3.2.2. MILK MARKETING AND PROCESSING
Regarding the milk sector, its consumption is domestic all over the district and is higher
during the wet season, to the point that many years not all production can be consumed.
Conversely, sensitive collectives such as children or pregnant women suffer during the
dry season because of the scarce availability of milk to meet their dietary requirements.
Coming from this reality, a very interesting experience has been developed by the NGO
PALISEP through support from Oxfam, which has set up small milk processing units in
4 villages in order to preserve the milk surplus from the wet season for the dry season.
The investment is rather simple, with a room hosting a small device for pressing the
curd and some photovoltaic installation to maintain refrigerators. Importantly, during
the visit in Engaresero the consultancy team realized that the local women community
was not using the facilities, even if they were in desperate need of it, because they had
been trained to use it with cow milk and only learnt from the consultants that it could
also be used with the much more abundant goat and sheep milk.
A similar investment was initiated by the Tanzanian Government in Loliondo – failed,
however. A complete milk processing room had not been provided with the necessary
equipment and had been left abandoned and deteriorating, apparently because project
funds run out before completion. It is not the only Government investments with clear
failures; similarly, the Government-funded slaughterhouse in Wasso has big issues
related to the misorientation that stresses animals due to their perception of blood
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odors, which is caused by the lack of separation of slaughtering and processing rooms
inside the facility, or the lack of a design to process the slaughterhouse wastes (Figure 7)
that could otherwise be producing fertilizer and biogas that can provide with significant
return to investors – just the way it happens at the Endagoret abattoir in Nairobi.
Figure 7. Main slaughterhouse at Wasso. The ditch in the forefront has been excavated to
evacuate slaughter wastes, due to a poor design of the septic tank.
The issue of milk processing shows high potential but it yet to exploited through a
strategic private and public investment. The experience of PALISEP shows that the scale
of investment needed is low, and therefore accessible for private investor even from the
community. The differences in milk provision between the dry and wet season are an
issue for children’s nutrition, given the needs for animal protein during the first stages
of development that are well documented scientifically (Grace et al 2018) and that are
also very well known by pastoralist women. There are therefore enabling conditions for
the introduction of cheese, even if it is an alien food for the local culture, because of the
awareness of the population on the nutritional importance of milk. The reduced energy
needs for processing or storing cheese is also a positive factor for its introduction, as is
the possibility to decouple its production with the borehole infrastructure that is usually
associated with dairy and its increased water needs. The quality of the product is also
reported to be good according to the criteria of tourists in nearby lodges, which shows a
future avenue for diversification of income by the community. This also presents an
opportunity for the empowerment of marginalized groups: it is dominantly managed by
women, who are traditionally in charge of dairy issues, and by youth, needed to learn
new approaches and techniques.
3.2.3.- LEATHER MARKETING AND PROCESSING
A very interesting experience has taken place in the district around leather production
and processing. While most of the skins and hides are left to dogs and chicken to eat
(Figure 8), thereby adding no value to livestock production, a project by UNESCO at
Ololosokwan shows the potential of the sector. Employing 30 women, most of them
illiterate, the interest in the venture arises from the company andBeyond, wishing to
commercialize local handicrafts beyond Klein’s camp in their lodges across Africa. The
initiative is a good example of what can and cannot be done.
Figure 8. Dogs and chicken roam near Endulen slaughter slab to feed on discarded skins.
Tanzanian leather industry has been declining in the last decades because of loss of
competitiveness (ITC 2015). This is unsurprising given the country’s poor infrastructure
that makes it very difficult and expensive to transport skins and hides to industrial
leather processing units. Commerce restrictions also limit imports of chemicals
necessary for the processing of leather, adding to the troubles in achieving economies of
scale. It is therefore unrealistic to expect skins and hides to contribute to the Tanzanian
leather industry unless a significant upgrade of existing transport infrastructures takes
place, or until some industrial processing facility needing very significant investment
opens in the District.
The UNESCO initiative in Ololosokwan is, however, oriented to the handicraft market,
which makes a lot of more sense when no good infrastructure is available but when a
'
rich natural and cultural heritage can be incorporated into the sale of the products.
Women have been trained to process handicrafts with horns and skins as well as beads,
selling typical Maasai products. While the initiative is good, it needs much refining,
according to the diagnosis of Mr. Hamidon Kweka, UNESCO officer in Wasso. The sales
seem stuck now because of no modern enterpreneurial mentality has been achieved in
the training process among the women in the cooperative, resulting in a more
“handicraft” approach (by definition, traditional and mostly unchanging) and less into a
“product” approach that requires refinement, polish and consistency. This precludes
looking for new markets; women do not go beyond the designs they have been taught
and use sub-optimal leather pieces, resulting in a quality that is not enough with what
andBeyond needs to proceed with sale and distribution of the products beyond the
District. The training from UNESCO’s side has finished in July 2018, thereby closing
their support of the project, but it becomes clear that for such an initiative to be
successful it needs a multi-sector approach that i) minimizes the damages to the skins
done through livestock branding and other cultural practices, ii) promotes better skills
among the women working in the cooperative, including high-skilled designers, iii)
integrates the sales of leather products with local cultural, touristic and community
development initiatives. As mentioned below (sections 3.5 and 3.7), the role of education
improvement by primary, secondary, professional, financial and entrepreneurial
schooling is fundamental in order to achieve further development opportunities, not
only in the leather sector but also across the wider spectrum of the livestock sector’s
value chains.
3.3.- BREED MANAGEMENT + EXTENSION SERVICES
Interventions in pastoralist areas are typically focused on the type of breeds used by
local communities. Classically, outsiders wishing to increase efficiencies and revenues
but with a lack of insight on the local pastoralist system have troubles in understanding
why thin, light animals would have been selected against heavier, more productive
traits. The selection of light animals, often with large horns and other poorly understood
body traits, is very related with the dissipation of heat, which is proven to be the major
limiting factor for livestock production in the tropics (Parés-Casanova & Caballero 2013,
Knierim et al 2015). In addition, long-legged or hardy animals adapted for long walks
will also cope much better with droughts, diseases and other crises.
!
The feedback from local livestock keepers about such interventions is that, while they
are aware that fatter animals are sold better in markets, there is also a very generalized
knowledge about the loss of resilience they imply. The experience on the subject has also
been gained through many previous project interventions, where they have observed
how the next drought culled the “improved” animals. Still, some projects developed by
NGOs like PALISEP around women groups, which aimed to provide dairy animals, have
been designed not as an improvement of the current cattle stock, but as the start of a
new mode of economic exploitation, and they have been met with more success due to
small and manageable number been kept by women pastoralists.
It is nevertheless clear that the introduction of improved breeds such as Boran or
Sahiwal offers some productive aspects that are to be exploited. However, the hardy
traits of indigenous breeds are something to be preserved, especially in times of crisis, if
the losses observed through the frequent droughts are not to be aggravated. The
solution seems to be a comprehensive network of extension services that will assist in
complicated breed management schemes. But the feedback from local livestock keepers
confirms the current weakness of government extension services and the under-supply
local producers experience. It is not only the lack of general advice, which would avoid a
dangerous management of breed crossing. There is a lack of systematized vaccination
campaigns, which are generally associated with projects and are not programatically
done – maybe a reason for the border crossing issues that hardly comply with OIE
regulations. Counterfeit vaccines are unfortunately frequently done in the district,
although it is reported that drugs sourced in Kenya are more reliable and constitute an
improvement.
On the other hand, the feedback from the ministry on breeds and extension services
provision provides a diverging view from that of local communities. The government
points out that they are currently working hard to facilitate public and private sector to
provide quality extension services all over the country following the long suspended
national vaccination programme in 2002. This also implies an increasing enrolment in
livestock training institutions to producing more extension officers for public and
private sector. The current rate of production of experts (certificates and diplomas)
stand at 2,600 graduates per year who can work as private extension officers. This is not
without conditionalities, as the ministry emphasizes each professional and para-
professional to be registered with the Tanzania Veterinary Council (TVC). Through the
3
council there are opportunities for youth empowerment to participate in livestock
extension service deliveries. The recent studies show that the deployment of extension
officers is low in the country, in spite of the increase of graduates over time. For
instance, out 16,936 of required staff for livestock and fisheries, only 4,771 (28.1%) are on-
post, leaving a deficit of 12,165 (71.8%) at national level, despite the higher enrollment
rates by Livestock Training Agencies (LITAs). There is a similar pattern of understaffing
in the Ngorongoro district, as out of 110 required staff at district to village levels, only 21
(19%) are on-post.
Table 2. Staff Allocation National Aggregate
Category Qualification Required On Post % on Post
Crops, Irrigation &
Cooperatives
First degree and above 2,746 1,530 55.7
Certificate and Diploma 16,542 7,226 43.7
Total 19,288 8,756 45.4
Livestock & Fisheries First degree and above 1,936 867 44.8
Certificate and Diploma 15,000 3,904 26.0
Total 16,936 4,771 28.1
Source: Lugeye & Mattee (2017)
Further, the government through the ministry responsible for livestock development is
in continuous process to carry-out control of ticks and livestock diseases through
dipping, as well as enable Tanzania Veterinary Laboratory Agency (TVLA) to produce
veterinary vaccines. With regards to breed management, the Government understands
the value of indigenous breeds and it is not ready for them to go extinct in the country.
In ensuring that the traditional breeds are well managed, the ministry has a specialized
program for indigenous breeds conservation which is complementary to the livestock
modernization initiative.
The dependence on the government sector for providing extension services may not be
necessary. Experiences from PALISEP show the ability of the private/NGO sector to
organize services such as pits for hoof treatment that have ended into the creation of 12
stable part-time jobs. A potential role for the private sector in this area, with low
investment needs, is clear, as local herders are willing to pay for quality services that will
increase the profitability of their livelihood. The key to successful experiences seems
more related with the capacity of the implementer, rather than the perceived behavior of
pastoralists towards the demand for the service.
6
3.4.- INVESTMENT POTENTIAL ON THE LIVESTOCK SECTOR IN THE DISTRICT
Herders from Ngorongoro District interviewed by this consultancy team experience
very different realities depending on whether they are in the Loliondo & Sale divisions,
or in the Ngorongoro division under the NCA.
In Ngorongoro Division, the role of NCAA is preponderant in many key aspects. Because
of the limitations to economic innovation and investments that the rulings of NCA pose,
local pastoralists are very pessimistic about taking their own initiatives. NCAA is seen as
a ruler of the area that determines all the game rules, and locals therefore expect NCAA
to make the necessary investments to improve living conditions and livelihood opportu-
nities. Local pastoralists are also very aware of the financial capacity of NCAA and how it
dwarfs any communal initiative they may set up. As reported in the interviews, NCAA is
considerably supporting the Pastoral Council with an annual budget of ca. 2Billion to
initiate, manage and financing community-centered projects.
Conversely, the Loliondo and Sale divisions offer a different picture. Here, the semi-ur-
ban center of Wasso-Loliondo plays a big role in the centrality of the district and it is ob-
served that the livestock keepers that are close to it are much more aware of investment
opportunities, as well as of the potential of community initiatives. The use of e.g. finan -
cial tools and banking follows a centrality pattern, being way more common around the
district capital.
The initiatives observed here, show that there is capacity present in the district, mainly
through NGO services, but also face economic sustainability issues, which could be
solved by the professionalization of their services. Young, trained people are also com -
ing that can establish such services2. Immigration of youngsters is seen as inevitable, es-
pecially if students have to leave the district in order to increase their capacities, but a
lot of work can be done against it. During the interviews, the consultancy team detected
a very high need of support for training and know-how activities at the local level. The
audience generally acknowledged the low-slung of investment in the district on techni-
cal and skills development institutions to train young people on practical know-how.
The residents of district are therefore forced to take their children to far-lying regions so
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to access such needs, which is also an additional hurdle for the development of the Dis-
trict in terms of students that go, settle in the places where they study, and never come
back. It is rational to recommend facilitation of capacity development institutions to fill
this vacuum, and it will significantly contribute to income diversification to many
households within the district
Where can investments come from?
We have mentioned above that the structure of livestock ownership is changing, with
most of the cattle heads tending to be owned by people that do not earn their livelihood
as herders – and, at the same time, a shift towards small ruminants among herders with
their own livestock, a strategy implying higher risk. Investors who identify the real
needs and opportunities on the ground – while having the capacity to commit to some
investments – are therefore going to be the mid-income keepers that are looking for
livelihood sources for their offspring. This is so because they combine the contact with
the on-the-ground reality with some investment capacity, with higher potential if orga-
nized as a collective action. Such herders, who are relatively successful at the moment,
express their doubts that their children will be able to have the same livelihood they
have, and they are therefore favorable to explore new options.
The lessons that can be extracted from similar settings in other countries in the past,
such as pastoralist societies in developed countries or even the situations experienced in
neighboring Kenya, is that introducing diversification in the land use practices (e.g.
combining livestock with wildlife/nature tourism) has an enormous potential to im -
prove the welfare of the community. Issues around such strategies are nevertheless that
not only new income sources have to be found, but it is important that the new income
benefits the local population in a way that is as equitable as possible. In doing so, social
tensions are reduced (Manzano & Slootweg 2017) and social imbalances related to e.g.
gender are also minimized (Manzano & Casas 2010). For this, and in the case of high
added-value activities, it is fundamental to have local facilities to adequate the capacity
of younger generations to the new economic opportunities. When it is rather outsiders
who benefit from the new opportunities, social tensions may arise that may translate
into a very negative social picture.
3.5.- DEMOGRAPHY AND EDUCATION
The current high demographic growth rate in the Ngorongoro District poses economic
sustainability issues that are neither ignored by previous reports (Slootweg 2019) nor
from the officials interviewed by this consultancy team. With population doubling every
20 to 25 years, it is hard to translate the achieved economic development into higher
welfare standards for locals. The potential untapped efficiencies detected in this report
for the livestock sector, and their potential benefits for employment and welfare, may
well be diluted quickly into the District’s demographic growth.
The relationship between education and healthcare provision, and declining fertility
rates (demographic transition) is, however, well established (Soares 2005). Projects from
the Tanzanian Government such as SEDEP or PEDEP, for constructing educational
facilities, or LGCDP and PHSDP/MMAM, for health facilities, have been developed in
the last decade and will probably have an effect in reducing the demographic pressure
on resources. NCAA, on its side, has been also investing in education facilities on
Ngorongoro Division, which should also translate into reduced demographic growth in
the near future. A higher level of education among the District’s population, both in
primary, secondary schools and in professional colleges, as well as in financial and
enterpreneurial skills, means also that better opportunities for economic diversification
are inevitable.
Given the relationship of education levels with fertility rate, it is worth reflecting on the
current status of both variables. While the population of the NCA area, i.e. Ngorongoro
Division of the district, is currently ca. 100,000 people, the whole District population is
ca. 200,000 (data revised in Slootweg 2019) – in other words, 50% of the population
resides in each part of the district. A look at the 2014 primary education enrollment by
division (NDC 2014) reveals, however, that while the students on the Ngorongoro
Division are 40,372, the students at Loliondo Division are 33,292 and, in Sale Division,
36,388. This means that only 36.68% of the primary education students are in the
Ngorongoro Division, and that ca. 30,000 more should be enrolled if Ngorongoro
Division was to keep pace with the schooling rate of the rest of the district. For the
future it means that, if current education trends are sustained, the NCA will have more
problems regarding high fertility rates and high pressure on natural resources.
3.6.- ROLE OF PAST PROJECTS
Ngorongoro District has known a wide array of development projects and investments,
implemented by the Tanzanian Government as well as by international donors. Among
the implemented projects, the ones that have left a greater footprint in the local
pastoralist populations have been veterinary vaccination campaigns and, especially, the
Ereto3 project funded by the Danish cooperation and implemented in partnership with
NDC and NCAA from 1998 to 2008. While the direct benefit of vaccinations in terms of
reduced animal mortality is clear, Ereto did present some unique characteristics that
made it very special. It was a project oriented to reduce poverty and social differences
through the participation of local traditional pastoralist institutions, mainly through re-
stocking of destitute families. The community appropriation and the feeling that they
were being part of it seems to have been key in leaving a positive footprint that has been
visible in every field visit performed by this consultancy team. The outcome of Ereto
may have not been perceived as positive by some stakeholders such as the NCAA,
worried that a re-stocking program may trigger a bigger pressure on natural resources.
However, the evidence from the cyclic behavior of livestock population along the years,
rather steered by natural conditions, indicates that an increase in livestock from the
project is unlikely. It should rather be tested whether a more even distribution of
richness can trigger a better incorporation of pastoralist family members in other
economic sectors of the district, including the administration of NCAA and the
burgeoning tourism industry therein. Education facilities and initiatives are, once
again, a key aspect – and given the data stated in section 3.5 of this report, the NCA area
is lagging behind and there is a lot of work still to be done.
Projects and support offered from the Tanzanian Government, the NCAA and/or even
OBC have a common failing factor: they just concentrate on the primary sector of the
economy. They tend to target rangeland management and other livelihood management
aspects such as breed choice that should have already been refined long ago by the local
pastoralists, and in that sense it is really unlikely that they will bring any significant
change (Manzano 2017). Other visions include shifting livelihoods within the primary
sector, mainly to agriculture, which again is unlikely to work because the presence of
strong pastoralist livelihoods indicates an adaptation to the local environment – an
aspect that differs e.g. in the Batemi highlands that are more prone to agriculture. The
/ 0
widespread vision of reducing poverty through the increase of income from the primary
sector is widespread in Tanzania, with country strategies for livestock concentrated in
increases in production (Michael et al 2018) and not in increased added-value, or in
opening mining ventures that often target pastoralist lands (HakiMadini 2017).
Unfortunately, this is ignoring basic economic principles on wealth creation. The
primary sector represents a very reduced portion of the economy in any developed
country, including those with a high dependence on their natural resource base for their
exports, such as e.g. New Zealand or Canada. The livestock sector in the Ngorongoro
District has very promising conditions to support value-added initiatives in the livestock
sector because of its privileged position between the Serengeti National Park, Lake Eyasi
and Lake Natron, with a well-established asset, i.e. NCA, and with a yet unexploited
asset of exceptional cultural landscapes constituted by the Batemi highlands. NCA and
the Batemi highlands are examples of natural areas with a strong cultural heritage that
are benefiting from UNESCO’s Man and Biosphere program in other areas of the world.
Such examples of coexistence of people and nature are exploited not only for tourism,
but also for specialized marketing of local products. In a widespread context of rural
crisis in Europe, those areas highlighted for their natural and cultural landscapes are
tackling depopulation and reduced incomes more efficiently because of so much they
have to offer beyond just wildlife.
In order to tackle such opportunities, it is fundamental to establish industries that add
value to livestock products, be it in the form of leather, transformed dairy products or
certified meat products. Most of the added value in this field would not go into the
primary sector, but rather into the secondary (industrial) one. The availability of new
products would trigger offer for associated services which in turn would provide many
new livelihoods in the tertiary sector (services) – but there is also a big scope to develop
specialized auxiliary services for livestock, of which there is a big demand and a
willingness to pay from the local population. Again, and as seen in the example for
leather (section 3.2.3), education is fundamental in order to open opportunities in all
three sectors of the livestock economy and the related value chains.
3.7.- VISION OF THE GOVERNMENT OF TANZANIA ON THE LIVESTOCK SECTOR
The government of Tanzania is envisioning a modernized and commercialized livestock
sector by 2025. The vision on livestock sector development is articulated in the National
&
livestock Policy of 2006. The policy emphasizes commercialized livestock industry, value
addition to livestock products, competitive markets, and sustainable livestock develop-
ment. Specifically, the overall objective of the policy is started below: -
By the year 2025, there should be a participatory livestock sector which to a large extent
shall be commercially run, modern and sustainable, using improved and highly productive
livestock to ensure food security, improved income for the household and the nation, while
conserving the environment (URT 2006: 6).
The instruments for the implementation of this policy come from the Livestock Sector
Development Strategy of 2010, the Livestock Sector Development Programme of 2011,
and various regulatory frameworks with respect to the Veterinary Act, 2003; the Animal
Diseases Act, the Dairy Industry Act, the Meat Industry Act, the Hides and Skins and
Leather Trade Act, the Animal Welfare Act, the Livestock Identification, Registration
and Traceability Act, and the Grazing-lands and Animal Feed Resources Act (URT 2016).
Apart from the livestock policy, the sector is governed by other various policies and
strategies. The current drive for the livestock sector transformation is geared towards
ASDP II, TLMI and TLMP, among others. These livestock modernization initiatives en -
visage a transformed and commercialized livestock industry, value addition to livestock
products, competitive markets, and sustainable livestock development.
The recently finalized TLMP estimates an enormous deficit of livestock products in the
next 15 years. Red meat is expected to have a shortfall of 1.7million tonnes, 0.234 million
tonnes for white meat and 5.9 million tonnes for milk. To close these production gaps,
the TLMP proposes livestock sector investment interventions to include improvement in
genetics, feed and health services, and complementary policy support to help meet the
ASDP II targets by improving productivity and the total production in the key livestock
value chains of poultry, pork, red meat and dairy. It further proposes an investment of
USD 621 million to be made, of which 36% should come from the public and 64% from
the private sector (Michael et al., 2018). These investments are anticipated to drive trans-
formation of the sector and to have positive impacts on rural livestock keepers by in -
creasing household incomes, and on urban consumers through lower prices of animal
products.
The trend is already that the high potential areas are being intensified, while the ones
with small production but high quality are being abandoned.
4.- CALCULATIONS OF LOST OPPORTUNITIES AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS
4.1.- LOST OPPORTUNITIES
An important exercise in the frame of this consultancy is to establish how much money
is getting lost through the different inefficiencies observed. How much money could be
currently added to the primary livestock production if those issues were resolved? As the
overall livestock carrying capacity of the district is limited to the ca. 430,000 TLU
mentioned by Slootweg (2018), any poverty reduction among livestock keepers will have
to go through improvement of the revenues from the same size of the district herd.
- Livestock lost in droughts: While this is an issue that does not happen every year, it does
make the productive capacity lag during several years. Given that the mean recurrence
of droughts is about 6 years, coinciding with heavy El Niño/La Niña events, that more
than half of the livestock die in such a given event, and that destitute families are kicked
away from the system and the efficiency of small farms is lost, we can assume that a
more revenue-based exploitation of livestock sector that is provided with adequate
forecasting would add ca. 50% profit to the current capital-based system.
- Better use of markets: The observed differences of sale price between the best and the
worst selling time of the year are indicating that at least an additional 50% of profit
could be obtained by optimizing sale strategies, once again switching from capital-
based to revenue-based systems. This is confirmed by observing the experience of local
champions, such as the Chairman of Endulen village mentioned above. Further
facilitation of cross-border trade could increase such margin significantly further – but
this is an issue that needs a change in the whole Tanzanian livestock strategy that is
currently more focused on guaranteeing the supply of the national market with national
supply (Michael et al 2018) and is therefore not a realistic option in the short run.
The potential improvement in markets is considered here cumulative to drought
management improvements because there will be an increase in the average livestock
herd held at a given time. Because of larger average herds (especially in post-drought
years) livestock keepers will be able to obtain more money from their sale. If they also
improve the strategies used in markets, that will mean a benefit that accumulates to the
one already achieved by proper drought management.
'
- Optimized use of cross-bred calves for sale: While the use of improved breeds is, as
mentioned above (section 3.3), a high-risk strategy, careful genetic management of pure
indigenous mothers and cross-bred calves exclusively targeted for sales could greatly
increase the profitability of meat sales. Not only do fatter calves increase the amount of
meat sold, but they also achieve weights that allow for economies of scale for the
retailers and therefore achieve better prices per kg. Taken into consideration that on
crisis years the cross-bred calves would mean a loss compared to the baseline situation,
and that on normal to good years they would mean an improvement of up to 50% in the
revenues, we calculate that it could increase the overall profitability by 25%.
Again, the benefits obtained by optimized cross-bred strategies are cumulative to the
ones described above. More animals due to reduced drought losses will be sold at higher
prices due to better market management. If these animals have better body condition
and a heavier, more optimal weight, this will add a benefit to the ones already achieved.
- Addition of value to milk: The prices for milk in the dry season basically double
compared with the wet season. To calculate the increased revenues from a well-
established dairy value chain is a difficult exercise because, as is the rule in many East
African livestock economies, dairy doesn’t go beyond the household/neighborhood
boundary. Wastage of dairy resources are also not quantified by the families, precisely
because of this domestic character of dairy production and consumption. The economic
benefit would therefore translate into an increase of values that are currently not
marketed, but we here propose a conservative estimate that would be 25% of the current
income received from meat sales.
Such benefits are not considered here cumulative because of having to be calculated
unedr uncertainty of what the real processing capacity is, as well as the absorption
capacity of the local and export markets. In such a scenario some animals would be
specialized in meat, some in dairy and some would be multipurpose, and the complexity
of such prediction goes beyond the scope of this report.
- Processing of skins/hides: The margins from skins and hides collected at the
slaughterhouse are very low in Tanzania in general (ITC 2015), not exceeding 400 TZS
per kg. Its valuation goes beyond working out inefficiencies in the primary sector, by
acting in the secondary sector (industry). We therefore will not consider the leather
!
sector to significantly contribute to the current inefficiencies in the productive sector,
as the debate on industrial investments is further discussed below.
Potential population supported
Current potential population living off livestock by 2025 180,000
Improved drought management (50%) 270,000
Improved market management (50%, cumulative) 405,000
Improved breed management (25%, cumulative) 506,250
Milk marketing and processing (25% of current meat
sales) 551,250
Table 3. Improvements brought by tackling inefficiencies in the livestock primary sector, in
terms of human population able to derive their livelihoods from the sector. Estimates derived
from Section 4 of this report.
Slootweg (2018) estimates that the livestock sector in the Ngorongoro District can
provide, as currently structured, low-mid income to about 20,000 households, or
100,000 persons by 2025, in compliance with the development objectives of the
Government of Tanzania. Considering the potential improvements detected by this
consultancy team (Table 3), three times more people could be living off the livestock
primary sector if the losses were to be optimized at the current income levels – which
nevertheless mean widespread poverty (Slootweg 2018). This implies that there is a wide
space for improving welfare among livestock keepers in the district if inefficiencies are
tackled, and more so if the demographic growth is controlled.
4.2.- SCENARIO ANALYSIS
The possible projections on the future of the Ngorongoro district go beyond how much
people livestock can provide for at current income levels. Current income levels, i.e.
poverty, are to be increased in the next years in order to raise welfare of the local
population, ease social tensions and build upon a sustainable future in terms of
economic, social and environmental terms.
4.2.1.- SCENARIO 1: NO ACTION
If no actions are taken, the trends towards a higher poverty rate described by Slootweg
(2018) are to be continued. With similar livestock numbers as the ones observed in the
last 60 years (Figure 3), population is projected to double in the district by 2040 up to
400,000 people, and to have multiplied by 7 up to 1,400,000 people by the end of the 21 st
century. Considering that livestock will still provide decent livelihoods (>20 TLU per
3
household) for at most 20,000 households, as it has been happening during the last 30
years, it means that at least 300,000 by 2040 will be condemned to dispossession and
absolute poverty or to emigration without any skills or decent job opportunities.
It should also be noted that the scenario of 20,000 household sustained by livestock is an
ideal case of total equality in the distribution of wealth. Trends towards the
accumulation of livestock in the hands of successful drop-outs that have achieved
success in administration or private jobs are, however, well known. As a consequence,
only ca. 5,000 pastoralist households, or 10% of the population, are currently above
poverty levels in the district (Slootweg 2018). As this is a figure that has remained
constant during the last 30 years it is very unlikely that it will change, meaning that only
5% of the district population will be able to make a living out of livestock above the
poverty line in 2040, and only 1.4% by the end of the century.
The consequences of widespread poverty are known to drive conflict and instability.
While pastoralist areas are known to be prone to conflict and lately targeted by specific
development interventions (de Haan et al 2016), the lack of access to dowry and its
relation with poverty has been described as a driver of conflict (Hudson & Matfess 2017).
Conflict and instability bode badly with tourism, so widespread instability in the
Ngorongoro District and in the Arusha Region at large is likely to impact the whole
tourism industry dramatically. Not only will international tourists become scared of the
region in an economic sector very prone to volatility, but the touristic assets that the
sector lives on (wildlife) will be severely damaged and probably disappear because of
disrupted local governance. Poverty and dispossession will spill out of the livestock
sector and spread into any other income sources in the district and in the region.
4.2.2.- SCENARIO 2: ACTING ONLY ON INEFFICIENCIES IN THE PRIMARY SECTOR
If actions are taken in the primary sector in order to tackle inefficiencies, as described
in section 4.1. of this report, the capacity of livestock will be increased to provide
sufficient income for an estimated 60,000 households – if livestock assets were
completely evenly distributed. This is obviously not a realistic scenario, and rather
20,000 households could be expected to be above poverty levels if we triple the 5,000
currently estimated and add a further 5,000 households that would be benefited for the
need to work in the field to take advantage from the proposed improvements.
6
Under the current population levels this would cater for the income needs of 50% of the
district population, but still leave 40% of the district population that are pastoralists or
agro-pastoralists in poverty and dispossession. By 2040, the percentage of population
that could fulfill their livelihood needs through livestock would be diluted to a 25%,
leaving in poverty at least 60% of the district population that have no alternative
livelihood out of the primary sector because of lack of skills. By the end of the century
that would have been further reduced to 7%.
In summary, the second scenario does not present a solution to the problem, but just a
delay in some of its consequences. It should be remembered that Ngorongoro District
already makes headlines internationally because of current conflicts (Mittal & Fraser
2018), a situation that is shared by some other pastoralist areas with rich touristic assets
(Manzano & Slootweg 2017), so the worst-case scenario may be much closer in the
future than expected.
4.2.3.- SCENARIO 3: HOLISTIC INTERVENTION ON INEFFICIENCIES AND OPT-OUTS FROM
PRIMARY SECTOR
If a decided strategy is implemented to offer alternatives in the secondary (industry)
and tertiary (services) sectors of the economy, the scenario may change very
significantly. Actions would then not be restricted to the primary sector, as has been the
rule in the past4. While investments would be accomplished in the primary sector in
order to tackle inefficiencies, strategies would be developed to incorporate large sectors
of the local Maasai and Batemi population into industries that feed from the local
livestock sector, and services supporting them, leaving most of the added-value on
place. This would require a full enrollment of the children in primary and secondary
school, the development of professional colleges and educational facilities at several
spots the district and a well-planned economic strategy that provides professionals in
the areas where they will be needed.
Evidence from developed economies indicates that the primary sector in countries with
a strong agriculture/livestock exporting sector, such as Spain or New Zealand, represent
just 5% and 6.5% of the economy, respectively. For comparison, in Germany it represents
0.9% and in Japan just 1,2%. Much more income in these economies is, however,
generated through the transformation of agricultural products, be it produced locally or
imported. In this scenario, this should be the future of the Ngorongoro District, with
&=#>*?@ABC9%
*
most population actually not living off livestock production, but off livestock product
transformation, commercialization and support. Such an economic improvement
would increase consumption and cause a virtuous circle that would create more
associated services (educational, leisure) creating again further jobs. Additionally, the
fertility rates would massively drop as observed with improved education and
healthcare delivery (Soares 2005). Such a trend has already been observed in
neighbouring Kenya, where the improved access to education and healthcare has caused
the cohort of children from 0 to 5 years old to be smaller than the cohort from 5 to 10
years old (CIA 2017), reaching demographic transition.
More income and less population is a simple equation that translates into more wealth
and welfare, and reduced conflict. Drop-outs from livestock keeping will not be forced
but wished, and the pastoralists staying in the livelihood will be well above 20 TLU per
household, as is the rule in developed countries where herds below 200 LU are
exceptional when meat is the sole sale asset and minimum incomes are at 15,000 $/year.
The projection for 2040 and 2100 is a population reaching mid-income much earlier
than the most optimistic predictions, and the Ngorongoro District as a whole being a
safe and prime destination for luxury, high added-value tourism looking for conserved
nature and cultural landscapes, which will fuel the local economy.
5.- RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1- GENERAL RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1.1.- STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMIC SECTORS
The history of development interventions in Ngorongoro District shows a consistent
failure in terms of having concentrated exclusively on the primary sector of the
economy, disregarding any intervention that can boost the other two sectors (industry
and services) and, especially, incorporate part of the growing pastoralist population into
them. It is a lost opportunity as the Ngorongoro District, squeezed between SENAPA
and the Rift Valley and owning world-renowned touristic resources, is on the global
map and can easily develop high added-value ventures. The District in itself has great
resources including its traditional livestock keeping and an array of natural areas,
including NCA but also the periphery of the Serengeti, the Batemi highlands or Lake
Natron, that can easily be used to sell high quality products. There is a desperate need to
boost the entry of the population into secondary and tertiary sectors – which should
mainly be channeled through livestock industries and livestock services. Apart from the
inefficiencies quantified at Section 4, economic theory indicates that the associated
industries and services and the economic dynamism delivered could reduce the
importance of the primary sector up to making it the less significant one, and provide
enough economic activity to sustain the population expected at the end of the century
(Scenario 3 in section 4.2.3) – much more so if the population growth in the district is to
be controlled in such a scenario.
In a wider reading for the overall strategy of the district, the other great resource base of
the district, e.g. wildlife and nature, needs also a strong entry into the tertiary sector.
There is a great potential role of combining both economic strategies. Livestock, which
in light of the natural dynamics it follows (Figure 3) should not be considered a threat to
ecosystems, should instead be seriously considered as a tool to manage wildlife areas. In
addition, it can provide with handicrafts, cheese, quality meat, leather, soaps or honey
to tourism lodges and to the local, national and international market that can contribute
to create a holistic brand of Ngorongoro District. If the local population is adequately
trained, the capital currently available in the livestock sector can be partly used to
generate investments in the tourism sector, thereby capturing the added value within
the local communities by getting jobs. There are strong needs to get guidance and
professional support in such strategy, both in investments and in financial management
– and if a trained pastoralist youth can be incorporated to the process, this can be a key
step for success. In boosting the Ngorongoro brand, opportunities should be used in the
frame of the Man and Biosphere program of UNESCO, even beyond NCA. The cultural
landscapes in the Batemi highlands are a great asset that are yet unknown, and the
traditional Maasai coexistence with wildlife in the rest of the district is also a very
powerful element for such a branding of sustainable landscapes.
5.1.2.- INEFFICIENCIES AT THE PRODUCTION LEVEL
A great amount of assets is getting lost inside the primary sector because of the
inefficiencies quantified in Section 4. Such inefficiencies are associated with a poor
financial management of the assets, related to the lack of financial tools and specific
training or background among the population – especially regarding cash management.
Loss in droughts, Inefficient sales are widespread, especially the ones done during the
dry season in the moments where cash is needed – particularly if far from central
markets5. If cash is kept as a principle of economic management, sales can be optimized
by doing them at the end of the wet season, when animals are fat and prices are good,
and excess cash can be used at the end of the dry season to acquire cheap animals that
will be fattened during the wet season. If such strategies would become generalized, the
sale price during the dry season would increase and further strategies involving fodder
use during that dry season would become economically efficient, thereby increasing
revenues to the system – cheap animals wouldn’t be there any more because the income
for livestock keepers would always be adequate.
A major issue are the huge losses sustained during droughts. Early warning systems in
the district are reported to be extraordinarily weak, yet a wide array of information is
available well ahead of the onset of crises. This is so even specifically for pastoralist
livelihoods, as carried out by FAO in Kenya, Somalia and Tanzania (FAO 2018). A review
of the FEWSnet bulletins for 2016 and 2017 (Annex 2) shows clearly that the last crisis
was traceable already by August 2016, almost a year before it hit hardest, and that the
much more favorable conditions of 2018 were already predicted in October 2017, when
the crisis was over. It must be possible to make an efficient and quick use of that
information. But more importantly, a balanced call-for-decision should be delivered to
1 2 )
3 !
4$!5
pastoralists with regards to early warnings: for them to do restocking if a favorable
condition is forecasted, and for destocking once a crisis is predicted.
Finally, donkey losses both by drought and by theft are an increasing problem because of
the valuable transport services they provide. A cooled debate on the reasons for such
problems and the opportunities it presents should be there when analyzing the
problematic (Box 1).
Box 1. Donkey trade bans in Africa and lessons learned from South Asia.
Chinese demand for donkey products, both for the traditional medicine and for
delicacy foods, is triggering an increase in live donkey exports in the region, with
27,000 donkeys exported by Niger in 2015 and about 80,000 by August 2016 when an
export ban was enforced in the country (BBC 2016). This trade, which has triggered an
increase in donkey price from 34 USD to 100 - 140 USD (meaning an estimated total
value of ca. 10 million USD for 2016), has created a fear that the transport sector will be
depleted of the main traction animal. Bans for donkey skin exports have mushroomed
in the continent, including Tanzania (de Greef 2017). It is douubtful that the decline in
donkeys is to be attributed to the use in Chinese traditional medicine, though. The
increased mechanisation of agricultural activities in China is probably behind the
decline in donkey numbers, in parallel with what happened in Europe 40 years ago.
This may be also the reason why the donkey population in Kenya has been halved in
the last decade, a trend that has not yet arrived through Tanzania because of deficient
infrastructure and low mechanization in rural areas.
Effectiveness of ban measures is questionable in light of camel slaughter and export
bans in Rajasthan (The Hindu 2015a) or the different hurdles to cattle slaughter in
other states of India (The Hindu 2015b). While such bans are aimed at protecting what
are considered as sacred animals and preserving the livestock keeping practices
associated with them, the closure of possible market ventures for their owners
translate in a quick decline of the national herd. This is so in spite of sustained illegal
slaughtering, indicated by skewed sex ratios (Ramdas 2017). This contrasts with the
situation in Pakistan, where a different cultural context has allowed for the
establishment of a powerful camel export industry that mainly targets the Persian
Gulf and which has translated in a multiplication of the national camel herd (Pakistan
Post 2015). Additionally, such bans can have unintended consequences for other
services provided by livestock, such as the uses for national security that camels have
&
in India (Daily Mail 2016).
A proper understanding of the economic determinants and production capacity
should be encouraged before taking rushed measures against market opportunities
that could also be a valid strategy to reduce poverty. Donkeys seem indeed to be able to
stand some degree of economic exploitation if adequately managed (McDonnell 1998).
5.2.- RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE TANZANIAN GOVERNMENT
5.2.1.- DROUGHT MANAGEMENT AND MARKETS
The Tanzanian government should greatly change its attitude towards destocking and
restocking in pastoralist areas. A change in the way information is presented, e.g. color-
coding the forecasted situation, would help livestock keepers quickly take decisions that
increase the efficiency of their livelihoods as an income generator. A weekly bulletin
could be issued with scores on livestock production feasibility according to the forecast,
based on information available from FEWSnet or other similar sources. If the
Government is serious about replacing the capital-intensive way of managing herds into
a more cash-intensive system, it is fundamental that trainings on financial literacy are
provided, including the use of mobile money - these can be done in collaboration with
Tanzania’s financial sector. The government should also allow private sector to
spearhead provision/delivery of the services that private investors find to be
economically feasible.
5.2.2.- INVESTMENTS & TAX REVENUES
There is a big discrepancy between the available transport infrastructure and the
demands for cross-border trade to be put in line with legal requirements. It is not
understood by the local population, and it bears also little economic logic, that such an
activity is heavily taxed and blocked before it is allowed to generate income. To invest in
the Soit Sambu-Posumoru road section (few kilometers that are entirely in Tanzania)
should be taken as a priority, as poor infrastructure there creates a bottleneck that is
contributing to impoverishment of local livestock keepers – and the better prices
obtained in the Kenyan side are a constant reality. This would also contribute to raise
the tax levied from livestock, that are currently very minimal. The problem applies not
only for cross-border trade, but for restrictions to livestock mobility as per the Animal
Welfare Act No. 19/2008, reinforced since 2018, where animals should not walk more
than 30 km – an unreasonable regulation in a district that currently has no single tarmac
road. This issue is similar to joint village land use plans that are too limited in
geographical scope in order to provide enough resilience to pastoralists to have
adequate movement freedom to respond to crises.
The overall philosophy that is currently applied should be revised: first, services should
be provided, and then taxes should be applied - not the other way round. If an enabling
environment for livestock industries and services is created, the livelihood and its
derived sectors could easily become the most important tax generator in the District.
The current tax collection is also extremely inefficient; there are reports for some
alcoholic official that was keeping the inspection fee for himself, with no real
accountability. The introduction of a mobile money system that is compulsory for
market access by the Tanzanian Revenue Authority should be considered – it would also
stimulate better financial management capacities by pastoralists.
Immunization of moving animals has been reported to be a challenge for cross-border
trade. However, this is very contradictory with the Government attitude towards
vaccination animal health campaigns, which instead of being taken seriously are left to
donor-based campaigns. Coordination should be worked on with the Kenyan
government, who is also interested in promoting cross-border trade because of the
production and commerce of e.g. veterinary drugs or fodder in the Kenyan side, but also
because the Government there is interested in keeping Kenyan meat prices controlled.
EAC provides a wide array of tools to promote cross-border trade that is widely known
to promote prosperity, especially compared with a situation of closed borders.
There is a great skepticism among locals about the public sector being able to follow up
investments and necessities on the field, given past failures. The role of the government
should be therefore rather to provide an enabling legal and economic environment by
lifting hurdles to commerce and creating adequate tax stimuli, and to promote the
participation of the private initiative by easing the creation of companies and service
deliverers – better if steered by locals.
'
5.3.- RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE DONOR COMMUNITY
5.3.1.- CROSS-BORDER PROGRAMS
The international donor community, especially if supporting cooperation schemes at
EAC or the African Union, is likely to be able to promote a transport link between
Tanzania and Kenya to favour cross-border trade, as would be the much needed tarmac
road and border post between Ng’oswaní and Loliondo. In an area where wildlife is so
key for development avenues, provisions should be included for faunal crossings in any
road infrastructure project. This would not only reduce fragmentation of ecosystems,
but it would also benefit pastoralists by facilitating the much-needed mobility in case of
climatic crisis.
5.3.2.- ROLE OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR
The private sector has been identified by the consultancy team as the biggest asset for
change. Livestock keepers with certain investment capacity are very interested in
diversifying income and providing opportunities for youth in the areas closest to
Loliondo/Wasso (they showed to be especially interested in the interview at Orgorosok).
The NGOs are also a very interesting stakeholder: while they are now paid by donors to
develop very interesting projects, they could convert into community-paid service
providers that develop exactly the same kind of projects but funded by the community
that needs services. The capacity for it is clearly available, and donors can stimulate such
projects and have an enabling role. Similarly, the growing interest in investment from
livestock keepers themselves should be supported through the development of technical
assistance programs to assist their investments so they don’t fail.
The empowerment of young men and women is key for them to take a role in the
delivery of private extension services. Young people, are drivers of the transformation
and are conversant with financial management, mobile phones and other tools that are
new to this livelihood environment. The potential role of technology can be illustrated by
the management strategy we propose here for animal breeds. Because of the dangers
mixing indigenous stock has for loss of resilience, the potential for cross-breeds should
only be used with a clear strategy to keep indigenous lines. Indigenous mothers should
be selected, as usual, for their resilience, with only wider hips as a new factor in order to
be able to accommodate thicker calves, lambs or kids. Keeping pure indigenous
breeding lines requires a cautious management of genetic information and a careful
!
administration of crosses, including traceability tools, that could greatly increase the
operating costs of any extension service unit. However, the use of cheap, optimized
extension services through mobile phones, centralizing the processing of data far from
the farms, could provide a very cost-effective alternative able to revolutionize the way
breeds are managed.
5.4.- RECOMMENDATIONS FOR NCAA
NCAA has a conservation agenda that is not easily accommodated into a landscape with
such a strong livestock component, especially if coming from traditional conservation
approaches. Fortunately, scientific evidence increasingly shows the compatibility of
extensive livestock keeping with biodiversity, and even the important role of extensive
livestock in keeping very relevant ecosystem functions (Hoffmann et al 2014). The
knowledge on pastoralist systems should be improved among NCAA and any other
stakeholders working on nature conservation in the district. The relationship of social
and economic factors with the disruption of traditional rangeland management rules –
which are very similar to sustainable rangeland management routinely promoted by
conservationists – should be much better understood and analyzed. The adequate
strategy for the sustainability of NCA should thus be oriented towards a livestock sector
that is of limited impact but with very high value, with livestock products that not only
sell their higher quality, but also the nature and culture values they contribute to sustain
– much in line with higher-end livestock products sold by pastoralists in Europe.
Limited investments that NCAA is able to undertake can greatly increase welfare among
locals and potentiate the NCA Brand – in the line of European protected areas that fit
UNESCO’s Man and Biosphere concept.
This becomes more important considering that the NCA is the area of Ngorongoro
District that is fairing worse in education enrollment, with figures that are almost half
the ones observed in the two other Divisions (see Section 3.5). NCAA should take
capacity building at the local level, not only in order to create a world-renowned
Ngorongoro brand, but also to curb population growth and reduce burden on natural
resources. It should be understood that poverty, poor healthcare and lack of education
go hand in hand with environmental degradation. While NCAA shares with OBC the
focus on issues such as rangeland management or breed use without extension support,
which are extremely unlikely to bring any change because of traditional strategies
3
already being optimized (Manzano 2017), the idea of investing in a local professional
training college and in financial training seems to be attractive for both stakeholders. A
targeted training strategy for locals and delivered locally, that considers the
opportunities present in the district and precludes the loss of the District brightest
young minds, would be a great step towards moving out of the logic of the primary
sector – that not even the much praised Ereto project moved out from – and
strengthening the secondary and tertiary sectors. An increase in education levels at all
spheres is dramatically needed to achieve greater change.
6
6.- ITEMS FOR ACTION
1.- Build up a.s.a.p. an in-situ facility for improving skills in strategic areas that trigger
real modernization, without waiting for government plans, with financial support from
donors, NCAA and/or OBC
- Livestock industries (milk, leather, meat transformation)
- Livestock services: veterinary, extension, commercialization support, cross-
border transport, entrepreneurial skills, financial management)
- Linkages with other strategic areas in the District, particularly tourism
2.- Channel investments wishes from more advanced livestock keepers.
- Financial literacy trainings (market management, mobile money)
- Support for ecotourism facilities, assuring links with UNESCO’s Man and
Biosphere programme
- Investing in small industries, turning the role of NGOs into service providers and
designing specific programmes to orient such change
3.- Design a specific strategy for early warning
- Include up-to-date information, in forms that are easy to use in each district
- Use mass media accessible to local producers in order to spread information
- Spread useful data for producers: not only when they should not invest in
livestock, but also when they should; and getting donor support to learn from
other sites where such early warning systems have been implemented.
4.- Improve trade and commerce conditions
- Tarmac the road from Loliondo to the Kenyan border at Posumoru, setting up
border facilities
- Cater for faunal crossings in road infrastructure projects that will protect wildlife
and pastoralist mobility
- Facilitate legislation for livestock mobility between districts and across the
border
- Promote mobile money use by implementing TRA payments through it.
- Shift public policies by first providing affordable, good quality services and, only
when such actions have given dynamism to the economy, apply taxes.
5.- Deliver adequate services
- Veterinary services promoting stable, sustained vaccination campaigns
- Allow posting extension officers close to their area of origin if wished
&*
- Let concrete investment projects be executed by private/NGO sector or
community, such as biogas facilities or leather processing units that include
professional managers, designers and any other professionals needed for
success.
- Stimulate new approaches by the private sector, such as using new technologies
for the management of exotic breeds and indigenous stocks, or mobilising and
supporting youth initiatives.
- Achieve primary and secondary schooling rates of 100% to increase livelihood
diversification opportunities, to reduce poverty, to tackle demographic growth
and to reduce burden on natural resources.
- Provide professional, financial and entrepreneurial education to adults for
adequate livelihood diversification and incorporation of locals into secondary
and tertiary sectors of the economy.
6.- Increase knowledge on pastoralist livelihoods
- Deliver trainings on the environmental, social and economic aspects of
pastoralist livelihoods and how they are interconnected.
- Value traditional knowledge, traditional governance systems and traditional
rangeland management knowledge, and stop focusing interventions on
establishing rangeland management plans (don’t “re-invent the wheel”).
- Focus instead on finding out why rules (be it traditional or “modern”) are not
respected, studying the changing social and economic determinants in the
short and long term that are driving to such governance disruptions.
&
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&&
8.- ANNEXES
8.1.- ANNEX 1
Evolution of livestock heads in NCA, 1960 to 2017
Year Cattle Sheep & goats Total TLU* % TLU, sheep &
goats
source
1960 161,034 100,689 122,793 8.20 McCabe et al 1992
1962 142,230 83,120 107,873 7.71 McCabe et al 1992
1963 116,870 66,320 88,441 7.50 McCabe et al 1992
1964 132,490 82,980 101,041 8.21 McCabe et al 1992
1966 94,580 68,590 73,065 9.39 McCabe et al 1992
1968 103,568 71,196 79,617 8.94 McCabe et al 1992
1970 64,786 41,866 49,537 8.45 NCAA, own data
1974 123,609 157,568 102,283 15.41 McCabe et al 1992
1977 110,584 244,831 101,892 24.03 NCAA, own data
1978 107,838 186,985 94,185 19.85 McCabe et al 1992
1980 118,358 144,675 97,318 14.87 McCabe et al 1992
1984 109,724 100,948 86,902 11.62 NCAA, own data
1987 137,398 137,389 109,918 12.50 McCabe et al 1992
1988 122,513 152,240 100,983 15.08 McCabe et al 1992
1993 77,243 148,288 68,899 21.52 NCAA, own data
1994 115,468 193,294 100,157 19.30 NCAA, own data
2003 129,231 173,364 107,798 16.08 NCAA, own data
2007 136,550 193,056 114,891 16.80 NCAA, own data
2013 131,509 330,079 125,064 26.39 NDC, NCAA 2013
2016 115,562 181,281 99,022 18.31 Tawiri 2016
2017 38,173 29,910 29,712 10,07 NDC 2017 (losses)**
* 1 cattle = 0.7 Tropical Livestock Units; and 1 sheep or goat = 0.1 TLU (Jahnke et al 1988).
** 2017 data are calculated by deducting the losses reported in NDC 2017 from the census by Tawiri 2016
&
8.2.- ANNEX 2
Selected FEWSnet bulletins, August 2016 to October 2017.
&'
FEWS NET Tanzania
fews.tanzania@fews.net
www.fews.net/tanzania
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily
reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United
States Government
TANZANIA Remote Monitoring Update
August 2016
Favorable Msimu harvest upholds household food security across the country until October
KEY MESSAGES
While the March to May Masika production season was below
normal in the northeastern, bimodal lowlands, above-average
Msimu production in unimodal, southern and central
highlands has upheld food access across the country.
However, acute food insecurity is likely to decline for poor
households in the Northeast beginning in October, the start of
the lean season. As a result, acute food insecurity is expected
to deteriorate from Minimal (IPC Phase 1) to Stressed (IPC
Phase 2) in this area.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)
estimates that since April 2015, nearly 150,000 Burundi
refugees have arrived in western Tanzania. As of August 20,
2016, the total number of refugees in Tanzania is 219,154. The
majority of the refugees are Stressed (IPC Phase 2!), in the
presence of humanitarian assistance. Ongoing Msimu and
Masika harvests, in adjacent areas to the camps, have
improved food access for refugees as well.
Projected food security outcomes, June to September 2016
(left), and October to January 2017 (right)
Highest estimated level of food insecurity in significant areas of
concern using IPC 2.0 Area Reference Tables:
Phase 1: Minimal
Phase 2: Stressed
Phase 3+: Crisis or higher
Severity significantly mitigated by assistance
Source: FEWS NET
This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for emergency
decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. To
learn more about this scale, visit www.fews.net/ipc
ZONE
CURRENT ANOMALIES
PROJECTED ANOMALIES
Northeastern, bimodal
areas of Arusha,
Kilimanjaro, Pwani
and Tanga regions
The ongoing maize harvest, from the
Masika production season, is likely to be
only 40 to 60 percent of normal, following
below-average rainfall between March and
May, compromising food crop production
in northeastern marginal areas.
Agricultural labor incomes derived from
harvesting have declined due to the
reduction in output.
The favorable maize and rice Msimu harvest in
the unimodal areas has improved food access
in northeastern bimodal areas, compensating
somewhat, for reduced Masika production.
However, the expected reduction in labor
incomes during the October to December La
Niña-induced Vuli rains will likely compromise
purchasing capacities and food access for poor
households.
Refugees in western
Tanzania in
Nyarugusu, Mtendeli,
and Nduta camps, and
the Lumasi Transit
Center in Kagera and
Kigoma regions
According to WFP, the delay in delivery of
super-cereal and sugar is causing a 40
percent shortfall for July and August.
Although the super-cereal and sugar shortfall
is temporary, for two months, a significant
pipeline break toward the end of the year
could cause a substantial reduction in ration
sizes and composition.
TANZANIA Remote Monitoring Update
August 2016
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
2
PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY 2017
The July to September Masika harvest is ongoing in the bimodal and central areas, which lie between the uni- and bimodal
rainfall regimes. The above-average Msimu and the Masika harvests have enhanced food supply and household access in most
parts of the country. The Msimu harvest contributes an estimated 70 percent to the overall national cereal output, while the
Masika, just over 15 percent, underlining the importance of the good Msimu harvest. However, the Ministry of Agriculture
estimates indicate that Masika production is likely to be 40 to 60 percent of average in the bimodal, northeastern lowlands of
Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Pwani, and Tanga regions, following below normal and truncated March to May rains. The expectations are
that the Masika harvest in other bimodal areas will generally be average.
The Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) recently estimated that an overall national maize surplus of 820,000 MT is anticipated during
the 2016 marketing year, sustaining food supply across the country. The key surplus -producing maize and rice regions include
Geita, Lindi, Iringa, Mbeya, Rukwa, Ruvuma, Shinyanga, Songea, and Tabora in the southern and central highlands. However,
overall cereal supply is moderated by a deficit in sorghum, millet, and wheat production. A 1.65 million MT surplus production
of bananas, pulses, and potatoes has also improved the food supply for poor households, likely through September.
While a substantial exportable cereal surplus exists, there is little evidence that large-scale exports from the southern highlands
into the deficit southern and eastern Africa countries are occurring. The Government of Tanzania has discouraged formal
exports out of the country, pending a detailed assessment of the overall national food supply and status of strategic reserves.
Subsequently, producer purchase prices have remained depressed. Farm-gate maize prices in the southern highlands are about
Tanzanian shilling (TSh.) 300-350 per kilogram, while rice prices in the Lake Victoria Basin are Tsh. 900-950 compared to the
normal price range of Tsh. 1,300-1,350. Lowered rice prices are also attributed to higher than normal production following a
succession of two favorable crops, planted in November 2015 and March 2016.
Nevertheless, household food access for poor households in northeastern, bimodal lowland areas in Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Pwani,
and Tanga regions is likely to be constrained through the October to December lean season. Household food stocks from the
Masika season are anticipated to be exhausted early due to the lower yields, while food prices are expected to rise seasonably
during the lean season. In the lowlands, agricultural labor opportunities in crop production, harvesting, and marketing are also
compromised severely by the overall below-average production through the Masika season, further constraining purchasing
power.
According to UNHCR, as of August 20, there were nearly 150,000 Burundi refugees, who had been displaced since April 2015,
residing in Nyarugusu, Mtendeli, and Nduta camps, and the Lumasi Transit Center in Kagera and Kigoma regions. The influx of
refugees continues and about 3,860 refugees arrived in the camps just between August 1 and 20. Likely WFP funding shortfalls
could result in significant pipeline breaks and food shortages toward the end of the year. Already WFP’s super-cereal sugar
rations have been reduced by 40 percent during July and August due to a delay in delivery of commodities. The refugees are
Stressed (IPC Phase 2!), supported by ongoing humanitarian assistance. Ongoing cassava and maize harvests in the regions
where the three camps are located have improved food access for refugees, moderating acute food insecurity. As a result, there
are no longer expectations that refugees, who arrived since planting began in March 2016, are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3!)
outcomes.
Acute food insecurity for most areas is Minimal (IPC Phase 1) across the country. However, for poor households in parts of
Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Pwani, and Tanga regions, acute food insecurity is likely to deteriorate to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the
lean season, beginning in October, through most of the scenario period.
ABOUT REMOTE MONITORING
In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses
scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may
have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.
FEWS NET Tanzania
fews.tanzania@fews.net
www.fews.net/tanzania
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily
reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United
States Government
TANZANIA Remote Monitoring Update
October 2016
Heightened food insecurity anticipated to continue into 2017
KEY MESSAGES
Poor households in Kagera Region face Stressed (IPC Phase 2)
acute food insecurity due to the impacts of the September
earthquake. Approximately 7,500 homes and buildings were
destroyed, and there have been ripple effects through
employment losses and a fall in remittances. Also, a delay in
the onset of Vuli rains in the Kagera Lake Region has reduced
on-farm labor opportunities, compounding food insecurity.
In the Northeast, bimodal areas, the below-average Masika
harvest in Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Pwani, and Tanga regions has
atypically reduced food access earlier than normal. As a result,
poor households are likely to decline to Stressed (IPC Phase 2)
since they will not be able to access their own production until
February 2017 with the Vuli harvest.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)
estimates that since April 2015 nearly 171,000 Burundi
refugees have arrived in western Tanzania. The total number
of refugees in Tanzania is almost 242,000 as of October 24. The majority of the refugees are Stressed (IPC Phase 2!), in the
presence of humanitarian assistance. About 25,000 refugees, who arrived since August 2016, are expected to face Crisis
(IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity outcomes through at least January 2017.
Projected food security outcomes, October to January 2016
(left), and February to May 2017 (right)
Highest estimated level of food insecurity in significant areas of
concern using IPC 2.0 Area Reference Tables:
Phase 1: Minimal
Phase 2: Stressed
Phase 3+: Crisis or higher
Severity significantly mitigated by assistance
Source: FEWS NET
This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for emergency
decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. To
learn more about this scale, visit www.fews.net/ipc
ZONE
CURRENT ANOMALIES
PROJECTED ANOMALIES
Northeastern,
bimodal areas in
Arusha,
Kilimanjaro,
Pwani, and Tanga
Reduced Masika output, about 40 to 60
percent of normal, has depleted household
food stocks in marginal areas. Poor
households are relying earlier than normal
on market purchases with limited incomes.
Expected below-average October to December Vuli
rains are likely to limit labor opportunities,
reducing purchasing capacities and food access for
poor households from November through
February.
Northwestern
bimodal areas of
Kagera Region;
and parts of
Mwanza and
Geita regions
Delayed onset of Vuli rains, coupled with
the impacts of the September earthquake,
have constrained poor household labor
opportunities. At the same time, poor
households have incurred expenditures to
rehabilitate homes and livelihoods.
The likely below-average harvest is now expected
in early February, lengthening the lean season for
poor households in the Northwest. The loss of
homes and property from the earthquake will
continue to be felt through May 2017,
compounding the situation for poor households.
Refugee camps in
Kagera and
Kigoma regions
Recently, refugee influxes have amounted
to about an average of 8,000 people per
month, who are almost entirely dependent
on food aid. An anticipated ration
reduction was postponed to November.
Unless more funding for refugees is obtained, a full
WFP pipeline break is expected in January 2017;
however, refugee inflows are expected to continue
at the same rate given the continued conflict in
Burundi.
TANZANIA Remote Monitoring Update
October 2016
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
2
PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH MAY 2017
The Vuli season has had a stuttering start in the northwestern, bimodal areas in Kagera Region. Rains normally begin in early
September but were delayed considerably until early October. The onset was also delayed in the western bimodal/unimodal
transition areas in Mara and northern parts of Mwanza, Kigoma, and Geita regions. The Greater Horn of Africa consensus climate
forecast suggests cumulative below-average October to December rainfall, tending to near-average rainfall after November.
Food insecurity has heightened for poor households in Kagera, and small parts of Geita and Mwanza regions, due to reduced
labor opportunities after the delayed rainfall onset. Also, according to the Government of Tanzania, the September 10
earthquake caused 19 fatalities, 253 injuries, and destroyed up to 7,500 homes and buildings, leading to income losses and
constrained labor opportunities due to the extent of the destruction, compounding food insecurity outcomes. As a result, poor
households in Kagera Region, in particular, face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity, which is likely to persist through
February 2017, until the onset of the Vuli harvest. Though limited short cycle crops from December could slow further
deterioration in food insecurity. Fortunately, the forecasted average Masika rains from March to May 2017 are likely to provide
an increase in agricultural labor opportunities, improving incomes.
The Government of Tanzania lifted restrictions on food exports in early October, replacing them with stringent export permits
and licenses to enable closer monitoring of export volumes. Subsequently, maize prices have remained fairly stable in many
areas, while rice prices were 30 to 35 percent lower than at a comparable period in 2015, in areas where Masika and Msimu
production was above average, excluding the Northeast bimodal areas. Increased labor income from land preparation and
planting in October has also slowed deterioration in food security. As a result, food security for poor households in parts of
Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Pwani, and Tanga regions has been upheld, at least until November, when food insecurity is likely to move
to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to the height of the lean season and an expectation for staple food price rises, which will constrain
food access. Poor households are likely to remain Stressed into the first quarter of 2017 due to the poor 2016 Masika harvest
and the expected below-average Vuli harvest.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries estimates a cumulative three million MT cereal and non-cereal surplus for
the current marketing year. However, maize and sorghum contamination by aflatoxin (Aspergillus flavus) has caused substantial
losses in Dodoma and Manyara regions but exact amounts are unclear. The aflatoxin poisoning has caused 19 fatalities and 65
infections from consumption of affected maize cereals, maize flour, sorghum, groundnuts, and millet. In response, the
Government of Tanzania has distributed 100 MT to affected households in the two regions, in addition to enhancing post-
harvest management practices.
As of October 24, UNHCR has indicated that there were approximately 242,000 refugees in Nyarugusu, Mtendeli, and Nduta
camps in Kagera and Kigoma regions in Tanzania. Nearly 171,000 of these were refugees from Burundi, who have arrived since
April 2015. Over the last three months, the influx of Burundian refugees has continued at a rate of about 8,000 people every 30
days. Likely funding shortfalls could result in significant pipeline breaks and food shortages beginning in November. WFP has
projected a funding shortfall of an estimated USD 4.3 million from October through December and USD 20.8 million between
January and March 2017. Food rations are set to reduce by 36 percent in November, while a full pipeline break is anticipated in
January if no additional funding is obtained by the end of the year. Most refugees are Stressed (IPC Phase 2!), supported by on-
going humanitarian assistance and are expected to remain so through May 2017. However, newly arrived refugees since August
are likely in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Food insecurity could increase substantially for refugees arriving after the Masika harvest is
depleted if rations are cut in November or in the event that a pipeline break occurs in January.
Acute food insecurity is Minimal (IPC Phase 1) across the country for most poor households outside the Kagera Region and
refugee camps and is expected to remain so through May 2017. Poor households in Kagera Region are likely to remain Stressed
(IPC Phase 2) into the first quarter of 2017. Food insecurity is also anticipated to deteriorate to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from
November through February for poor households in parts of Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Pwani, and Tanga regions.
ABOUT REMOTE MONITORING
In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses
scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may
have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.
FEWS NET Tanzania
fews.tanzania@fews.net
www.fews.net/tanzania
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily
reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United
States Government
TANZANIA Tanzania Remote Monitoring Update
December 2016
Below-average rains and likely refugee pipeline deficits to accentuate food insecurity in 2017
KEY MESSAGES
The delayed onset and below-average Vuli rains (mid-
September to December) point to a likely deterioration in food
security for poor households in Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Pwani,
and Tanga regions as the harvest in March is expected to be
significantly lower than normal. Reduced labor opportunities,
coupled with rising food prices, are likely to constrain
purchasing capacities and food access. Poor households are
likely to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during most of the scenario
period.
Poor households in the unimodal-bimodal transition areas in
Geita, Kagera, Kigoma, Mwanza, and Shinyanga face Stressed
(IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity, following a slow and
below-average start to the Msimu rains. Reduced agricultural
labor opportunities have limited household income, and many
poor households are unable to re-plant as a result. Below-
average food production from the harvest in March/April 2017
is anticipated, which is expected to erode household capacities
to access food and will extend market dependence.
As of early December, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reported there are approximately
253,000 refugees in Kagera and Kigoma regions, of which about 192,000 are Burundian arrivals since April 2015. Food
insecurity for all refugees is likely to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3), from February onward, if there is no new funding to
avoid the anticipated pipeline breaks.
Projected food security outcomes, December 2016 to
January 2017 (left), and February to May 2017 (right)
Highest estimated level of food insecurity in significant areas of
concern using IPC 2.0 Area Reference Tables:
Phase 1: Minimal
Phase 2: Stressed
Phase 3+: Crisis or higher
Severity significantly mitigated by assistance
Source: FEWS NET
This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for emergency
decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. To
learn more about this scale, visit www.fews.net/ipc
ZONE
CURRENT ANOMALIES
PROJECTED ANOMALIES
Northeastern,
bimodal areas in
Arusha,
Kilimanjaro,
Pwani, and Tanga
regions
Delayed mid-September to December Vuli
rains caused substantial wilting of dry-
planted maize and bean crops, resulting in
re-planting during November. Erratic rains
during the first couple of months have also
resulted in below average and staggered
germination.
Seasonal rainfall deficits, coupled with erratic rains,
are likely to reduce overall yields for cereals,
pulses, and root crops, lowering food availability
and on-farm labor opportunities. Poor household
purchasing capacities are expected to be
constrained due to this anticipated reduction in
labor income.
Transition areas
in Kagera,
Kigoma,
Shinyanga, Geita,
and Mwanza
regions
A slow onset and below-average Msimu
rains have reduced agricultural labor
opportunities for poor households. These
households are highly dependent on this
labor income to make needed food market
purchases through the lean season that will
extend until the end of February 2017.
While the Msimu rains have started tentatively, the
relatively longer growing period could mitigate,
somewhat, early season deficits in localized areas if
improvements occur. However, a significant
amount of crop losses have already incurred in
transitional areas, and food access is likely to be
problematic for poor households.