Technical ReportPDF Available

33 simple 'Bullet Points' prove CO2 is innocent of global warming: by a GEOLOGIST for a change

Authors:
  • Geoclastica Ltd

Abstract

GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-11, updated November 2021. Firstly, please be aware that ALL GEOLOGISTS ARE ENVIRONMENTALISTS; we adore nature and abhor pollution. Welcome. You're one of >30,000 people to visit since I posted this item in April 2019. After reading these 33 simple 'bullet points', you will know that: (1) harmless CO2 is certainly not a 'pollutant' (as if!); and (2) it's lunacy to waste trillions of taxpayer dollars on 'carbon capture and storage' (CCS) that is both needless (CO2's small greenhouse effect is negated by feedbacks omitted in 'climate models') and undesirable (man's CO2 additions have made Earth greener, stimulating vital crop yields and forest growth). Nevertheless WE DO NEED TO TRANSITION AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS (i.e. oil, gas, coal; NB I'm a geology consultant for oil companies), but not due to life-giving CO2, instead because they will become too expensive as they grow scarcer. THE SOLUTION IS SIMPLE: (A) freeze fossil-fuel usage at current levels (no new fossil-fuel-burning power stations or industry); (B) ban petrol & diesel vehicles & the REAL pollution they emit (nitrous oxides, unburnt diesel, tyre dust, etc.) immediately in cities & towns; (C) rapidly expand nuclear power (it produces ZERO air pollution; ample barren locations exist for radioactive-waste storage) while we … (D) urgently accelerate development of clean nuclear FUSION. We also must BAN PLASTIC food and drink containers (produced from oil & gas; again YOU drive the demand). PLEASE SHARE THESE 'BULLET POINTS', which collectively prove CO2 did not cause the 'Modern Global Warming'. I have assembled these 33 unquestionable FACTS (as opposed to INTERPRETATIONS, always open to question) during my 6 years, to date (Oct 2021), of self-funded (thus unbiased) full-time literature research on ALL the scientific disciplines relevant to climate- and sea-level change (i.e. geology, geophysics, archaeology, astrophysics, meteorology, oceanography, physics, chemistry, etc.), backed by 30 years as a geological consultant, preceded by a doctorate (Oxford 1982-86), MSc (Calgary) and BSc (London), all in geology. Contrast the IPCC's 2013-14 report and upcoming 2022 report, each with more than 700 authors, NONE (or perhaps 1) of them a geologist (see my 1-page Technical Note 2019-10 here on ResearchGate). We urgently need to get the truth about CO2 out to the public and especially into schools and universities, to end the brainwashing of YOUR children and grandchildren with the 'CO2 is a pollutant' fallacy. The money squandered needlessly and ineffectually 'tackling' beneficial(!) CO2 should instead be spent alleviating GENUINE problems faced by world society, including overpopulation, poverty, famine, REAL pollution (auto emissions, chemical spills, plastics, sewage, etc, etc), and an imminent major SUN-driven sea-level rise (see below). If YOUR child's school is indoctrinating him/her with the belief (sic) that CO2 is humanity's enemy, then unless you complain you are complicit. See especially Bullet 24 if you live near sea level: a big rise (2 to 3 METRES) is indeed coming, in fact possibly already began, driven by the Sun, not CO2, and ENDING by 2100. For literature SOURCES, please click on 'Linked data'. For a GERMAN TRANSLATION of an earlier version of the first 25 of these 28 bullet points, see … https://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/2019/06/18/25-punkte-die-beweisen-dass-co2-keine-globale-erwaermung-verursacht-diesmal-von-einem-geologen/ For a CHINESE TRANSLATION, see … https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334823689
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33 simple 'Bullet Points' proving CO2 does not cause global warming:
by a geologist for a change
Dr Roger Higgs (DPhil geology, Oxford, 1982-86)
Geoclastica Ltd, Technical Note 2019-11, on ResearchGate
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332245803
6th April 2019, amended 24th Nov 2021
For literature sources see ‘Linked data’ ...
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334029086
Abbreviations:
'AD' = anno Domini; 'BC' = years 'before Christ'; 'BP' = years 'before present', from
radiocarbon dating (0 is 1950AD by convention); ~ = about/approximately
1) The IPCC (United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has no
geologists among the hundreds of authors of its last major report (2013/14), and at
most 1 geologist in the next report (due 2022; Summary for Policymakers released
October 2021). Thus IPCC focuses on only the last 170 years (since multiple reliable
thermometer measurements began, ~1850), yet Earth is 26 million (sic) times older,
4.5 billion years. Geologists know that throughout this time Earth has constantly
warmed or cooled (never static). Thus 'climate change' (warming or cooling) is
perfectly usual. During the last 11,650 years, our current ‘Holocene’ interglacial
epoch, climate change has repeatedly been fast enough to cause collapse of
civilizations (Bullet 20).
2A) The IPCC’s very existence relies on public belief in ‘Anthropogenic (Man-Made)
Global Warming' (AGW) by the 'greenhouse effect' (Bullet 5) of CO2 emissions. Most
IPCC authors, mainly government and university researchers, are biased by strong
vested interests in greenhouse AGW, i.e. publications, reputations, salaries, research
grants. NB Recently (October 2021) I demonstrated that AGW does exist, but is due
to waste heat (thermal pollution) and black carbon, not CO2.
2B) Similarly, universities have sacrificed their impartiality by hosting institutes
financially mandated to promote CO2-driven AGW. For example, London's former
bastion of scientific integrity Imperial College (where I obtained my BSc Hons ARSM
in 1975) has, since 2007, lamentably housed the 'Grantham Institute - Climate
Change and the Environment', founded and funded by investment magnate Jeremy
Grantham (heavily involved in forest destruction for biomass energy according to
the 2019 Michael Moore/Jeff Gibbs documentary 'Planet of the Humans'). The
'Tyndall Centre for Climate Research' (founded 2000 and named after John Tyndall
[Bullet 5A]), has branches at the Universities of Cardiff, Manchester, Newcastle and
Fudan, and also at the University of East Anglia, in the same building as the
infamous IPCC-linked Climatic Research Unit (CRU; Wiki 'Climategate').
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2C) Well-known scientists formerly associated with the IPCC have subsequently
denounced its methods.
3) The claimed '97% consensus among scientists' that CO2-driven AGW exists is
widely misunderstood and misquoted. It refers in fact to polls of only recent
publications by only 'climate scientists', i.e. specialists lacking deep-time perspective
(Bullet 1) who deal with famously unreliable 'climate models' (Bullet 6). The vast
majority of the world's normal scientists, numbering millions, has never been polled,
myself included. In November 2019 Wikipedia deleted its "List of scientists who
disagree with the scientific consensus on global warming" (Bullet 29).
4) No informed person ‘denies’ global warming: thermometers have measured it
(Bullet 11). ‘Global-warming denier’ and 'climate-change denier' are dishonest
names (with intentionally despicable connotations) lazily applied to people who in
fact deny (or doubt) only that warming is man-made (AGW; Bullet 2A). Infamous
Michael Mann (Bullet 32), in his combative 2012 book "The Hockey Stick and the
Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines", used the term "climate change
denier" (or denial/denying/denialism) no fewer than 100 times, omitting the prefix
"human caused". In contrast "human-caused climate change" or "human-caused
global warming" appears just 13 times (after the first use of "climate change deniers"
[page xiii]). The book also misleadingly gives the impression that all prominent
"deniers" are funded by oil companies, and compares them with tobacco-funded
deniers that cigarettes harm health.
5A) "The greenhouse effect is the process by which radiation from a planet's
atmosphere warms the planet's surface" (Wiki, accessed 4th Nov 2021, citing IPCC).
This bold claim that Earth's land- and ocean surfaces are warmed by the air is
'backwards'. In truth the (solar-warmed) ocean warms the atmosphere, as shown by
three observations: (1) ocean-surface water (covering ~70% of Earth) throughout the
north Pacific and north Atlantic is almost everywhere warmer than the air above it;
(2) changes in global average surface air temperature lag 1 to 1.5 months behind
corresponding changes in global sea-surface temperature; and (3) Antarctica has
failed to warm in the last several decades (attributed to the ice sheet's high elevation
delaying the landward penetration of ocean-warmed air). These facts indicate that
heat (only capable of flowing one way, from warmer to cooler) flows outward, from
the ocean to the air, not vice versa. A truer summary of the greenhouse effect is that
solar energy absorbed at Earth’s surface is radiated back into the atmosphere as heat,
some of which is absorbed on its way out to space by greenhouse gases. Thus
greenhouse gases are merely insulators, reducing the air's heat loss to space, in the
manner demonstrated experimentally in the 19th century by John Tyndall (Bullet
2B). Moreover, Wiki admits: "The term greenhouse effect is a misnomer, in the sense
that physical greenhouses warm via a different mechanism. The greenhouse effect as
an atmospheric mechanism functions through radiative heat loss while a traditional
greenhouse as a built structure blocks convective heat loss."
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5B) CO2 is a ‘greenhouse gas’ (GHG). Confirming CO2's greenhouse effect, satellite
instruments show infrared (heat) energy escaping from Earth is slowed in the
wavelengths diagnostic of CO2. Repeat measurement 26 years apart showed that
slowing increased, i.e. 'enhanced greenhouse effect' by growth of atmospheric CO2.
Due to the 'saturation effect', CO2's theoretical heat-trapping ability sharply
(logarithmically) declines as its concentration rises. CO2's Climate Sensitivity (CS) is
the hypothetical warming due to a doubling of CO2. The IPCC estimates that CS,
based on defective climate models (Bullet 6) and circular reasoning, is probably
between 1.5 and 4.5C°, a 300% contrast. According to a landmark new paper by van
Wijngaarden & Happer (2020), CS for doubling of CO2 from 400 to 800 parts per
million (ppm) is theoretically 1.4 to 2.3C°, but their calculations assume cloud-free
conditions; the effect of clouds, which cover about two thirds of Earth at any
moment (Wiki 'Cloud cover'), is very uncertain (Bullet 5C).
5C) Climate control by the Sun for at least the last 9,000 years (until outweighed
since ~1990 by man-made warming by waste heat and black carbon) is proven by
strong graph-to-graph correlation of solar-magnetic output (SMO) and global
average surface temperature, with a ~150-year temperature delay ('ocean lag';
Bullets 12, 21). In contrast, CO2 and temperature match very poorly, showing only a
partial coincidence: CO2's accelerating rise since ~1850 (start of Industrial
Revolution), interrupted by only a brief pause (1887-97) and a trivial reversal (1ppm
decline from 1940 to 1944), accompanied alternating multi-decadal coolings (1850-
1910, 1940-75*; total 95 years) and warmings (1910-45, 1975-2016; total 76 years). * =
from HadCRUT graph of 1850-2021 averaged global temperature, near-identical to
NASA-GISS graph spanning only 1880-2021, based on same weather stations but
different processing.
5D) Despite its greenhouse effect, CO2 evidently causes no warming, as: (a) changes
in CO2 growth rate follow changes in rate of warming (Bullet 10); and (b) CO2
correlates poorly with temperature (Bullet 5C). This proves that CO2's greenhouse-
warming potential, already reduced logarithmically "well into the saturation
regime", must be negated by feedbacks. Two natural feedbacks ignored in IPCC
climate models are: (i) little known cloud feedback; and (ii) “potentially very
important” increased biogenic 'BVOC' aerosol due to faster forest growth by
warming & CO2 fertilization. (The only feedbacks listed in IPCC's influential 2013
Fifth Assessment Report fig. SPM.5 are man-made ones, with very wide "uncertainty
intervals".) IPCC admits "aerosols and their interactions with clouds have offset a
substantial portion of global mean forcing from ... greenhouse gases. They ...
contribute the largest uncertainty"; and "quantification of cloud and convective
effects in models, and of aerosol–cloud interactions, continues to be a challenge."
IPCC's underestimation of negative feedbacks might explain why climate models
run too hot (Bullet 6), and why 'runaway' greenhouse warming has apparently never
occurred on Earth.
6A) Computer 'climate models' (by 'climate scientists'; Bullet 3) are so full of
assumptions (stacked upon other assumptions) as to be highly misleading at best,
e.g. 1985-2015 warming forecast by 31 models turned out 2 to 4 times too high. Even
pro-IPCC 'tricky Wiki' (Bullet 29) admitted: “Each model simulation has a different
guess at processes that scientist don't understand sufficiently well”. A new book by a
former science advisor to US President Obama highlights climate models'
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unreliability and failure to reconstruct 20th Century temperatures accurately
(Koonin 2021).
6B) Climate models ignore three crucial factors: (i) natural cloud and aerosol-cloud
feedbacks (Bullet 5D); (ii) large changes in solar magnetic output (SMO; Bullet 12A)
said to drive global temperature changes (Svensmark Theory), denied by the IPCC
(Bullet 14) and NASA, which both disingenuously assert that total solar irradiance
(TSI, which changes in lockstep with SMO but far less, and not strictly
proportionately) varies much too little to affect climate, so CO2 must be in charge.
NASA went so far as to title a publication 'Atmospheric CO2: Principal Control
Knob Governing Earth's Temperature' (2010); and (iii) 'ocean-lag', the ~150-year
delay between changes in SMO and correlative changes in temperature (Bullet 21).
These IPCC failings, namely feedback underestimation, 'Sun denial' (dismissal of
solar variations), ocean-lag omission, and fixation on CO2, mean that all climate
modeling conducted to date is misleading (worse than useless).
7A) CO2 currently (November 2021) is 415 ppm, only 0.04% of our atmosphere, i.e.
less than half of one-tenth of 1%. For much of the last 550 million years (Phanerozoic
time), the concentration was 2 to 10 times higher. Evolution flourished. Plant
photosynthesis, the basis of all life, was stimulated by higher CO2 (Bullet 8).
Extinction events due to overheating by CO2 are unknown.
7B) Throughout Phanerozoic time, CO2 seemingly correlated well with temperature
(although all studies inevitably have low resolution and dating uncertainties). The
correlation is readily explained by warming and cooling oceans respectively
releasing and absorbing CO2 (Bullets 9, 10).
8A) Through Holocene time (last 11,650 years), atmospheric CO2 (from Antarctic ice
cores) was only 250-285 ppm (i.e. not far above plant-starvation level of ~150 ppm),
until ~1850 when mankind's industrial CO2 emissions began. Since then,
atmospheric CO2 has climbed steeply. Proving that man's emissions are the main
driver of this post-1850 accelerating rise in CO2, ice cores show that the last five
interglacial periods (including the Holocene up until 1850) all reached levels of 250-
300 ppm (cf. intervening glacials 185-195ppm), evidently an equilibrium value for
normal interglacial conditions. CO2 is currently 415ppm (November 2021).
8B) The present CO2 level of 415ppm is far from hazardous to human health, e.g.
CO2 levels in US Navy submarines typically average 3,000-4,000ppm with no
reported ill effects. Benefits of rising CO2, thanks to the 'CO2 fertilization effect',
include expansion of natural forests ('greening' of the planet) and increased
agricultural productivity, essential for feeding Earth's burgeoning population. Thus,
ironically, man's production of CO2 by burning fossil fuels (for energy and
transport) has unintentionally averted, or at least postponed, a global food crisis.
Commercial growers inject CO2 into their greenhouses. "CO2 enrichment in
greenhouses allows crops to meet there (sic) photosynthesis potential." "For most
crops the saturation point will be reached at about 1,000–1,300 ppm ... Increased CO2
levels will shorten the growing period (5%–10%), improve crop quality and yield".
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9) Before the ~1850-onward global network of accurate thermometers, temperature
‘proxies’ (e.g. tree-ring widths, ice-core isotopes) show slight global warming
(~0.1C°) from the ~1815 cold peak of the Little Ice Age (Bullet 17) to the ~1850 start
of industrial CO2 emissions. This warming was accompanied by a trivial CO2 rise
(1ppm, reaching 285ppm; measured in ice cores), readily ascribed to ocean water
releasing CO2 by warming (decreasing its CO2-holding capacity). After applying a
150-year 'ocean lag' (Bullet 21), the warming equates to rising solar output.
10) Additional evidence, besides Bullet 9, that rising CO2 is a consequence, not cause,
of global warming (i.e. CO2 released from warming ocean; added to man's CO2
emissions, Bullet 8A) is that Pleistocene ('Ice Age'; ~2.5 million years ago until
Holocene) glacial-interglacial temperature changes were followed "very closely" by
changes in CO2. Based on ice-core data, the time-lag has been determined as
somewhere between 400 years and zero, or possibly negative. The uncertainty is
because air is free to migrate in the upper snowpile, above the 'lock-in depth'.
Greatly narrowing the uncertainty, analysis of post-1950 direct atmospheric CO2
and thermometer data by two research groups found that changes in the rate of CO2
growth follow changes in the rate of warming by ~5 months and by 11-12 months.
11) The NASA-GISS global (land-ocean average) temperature graph for 1880-2020
shows 1.4C° warming (global land average) between 1910 and 2016 (slight cooling
since then, Bullet 13). This 1910-onward 'Modern Warming' (name proposed here)
was preceded by at least 30 years of overall cooling (1880-1910) and interrupted by:
(i) a 10-year cooling (1940-50) and ensuing 25-year hiatus (1950-75) (cf. 1940-75
cooling on HadCRUT graph [Bullet 5C]); (ii) the 1998-2012 ‘Global warming hiatus’
(Wiki); and (iii) superimposed on and between these, frequent minor coolings of 1-3
years, some attributable to mega-'volcanic winters’ and perhaps some to 'ENSO' (El
Niño/La Niña) events. In contrast to this markedly stop-start warming behaviour,
accelerating CO2 since the start of industrial emissions ~1850 (Bullet 8) had only a
brief pause (1887-97) and a trivial reversal (1ppm decline from 1940 to 1944), both
occurring during coolings, and both attributable to CO2's increasing solubility in a
cooling ocean (Bullet 9). In other words, CO2 and global temperature do not
correlate. On the other hand, the two coolings do match solar downturns, after
applying an 'ocean lag' temperature lag of ~150 years (Bullet 21). Further
underscoring the Sun's control of climate, the HadCRUT graph of averaged global
temperature since 1850 (near-identical to NASA-GISS graph, same weather stations,
different processing) contains solar frequencies. Furthermore, mega-volcanoes
correlate with low solar output (Bullet 33) and ENSO events are Sun-related too.
12A) The unsteady up-down ‘sawtooth’ style of global warming since ~1815 (last
major cold spike of Little Ice Age; Bullets 9, 11) resembles the sawtooth rise in solar-
magnetic output (SMO) from ~1700 (end of sunspot-defined 'Maunder Minimum') to
1991 (peak SMO of Sun's modern 'Grand Maximum' [GM; 1937-2004]; NB the sunspot
peak was earlier, 1958, i.e. sunspots are not an entirely faithful proxy for SMO [Bullet
6B]). A very good visual cross-match between the two graphs is found by applying a
temperature delay of ~150 years (Bullet 21). SMO surged from 1902 (start of Sunspot
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Cycle 14) to 1991, the largest and highest multi-decade surge in at least 9,000 years,
increasing 131% from 1901 to 1991, and 41% from 1964 to 1996. Discussing the Sun's
modern GM, Steinhilber et al. (2008) said: "The last period which showed similar
high activity and also lasted as long ... was about 1700 years ago". That particular
~300AD GM caused warming and drove a rapid (<100 years) global 2-3-metre sea-
level rise, the 'Romano-British Transgression', one of numerous such rises in the last
10,000 years (Bullet 26), portending another such rise by 2100 (sic).
12B) The same ~150-year lag between SMO and global temperature applies to at
least the last 9,000 years. For the past 2,000 years both graphs have a hockey-stick
shape (Bullet 32): the 'shaft' is a long (~1,200 years) decline in both SMO and
temperature, from ~400AD to the Little Ice Age (LIA; Bullet 17), with superimposed
50-200-year smaller up-down 'sawteeth'; and the 'blade' is the post-1700 climb (Bullet
12A). The 150-year 'ocean lag' (Bullet 21) aligns, for example: (i) the Sun's ~300AD
Grand Maximum (Bullet 12A) and the ~450AD highest temperature of the last 2,000
years (possibly surpassed by the Modern Warming 2016 peak); and (ii) the ~1670
LIA solar minimum and the 1815 LIA minimum temperature (Bullet 12A).
Moreover, the solar and temperature graphs have the same proportionality: ~3:2
ratio of 'blade' height versus sawtooth amplitude; and ~1:1 height ratio of the shaft
and blade. In contrast, CO2's correlation with temperature for the last 2,000 years is
very poor (Bullets 5C, 11).
12C) The strong cross-match between SMO and lagged temperature (Bullet 12A)
increasingly breaks down from 1940 onward, due to man-made warming by waste
heat and black carbon (not CO2) progressively overtaking the Sun's influence.
13) 2016 was the warmest year 'since records began', i.e. only since ~1850, the start of
a reliable global thermometer network. 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 were all cooler.
(NB In 2021 NASA adjusted its 2016 temperature downward, making 2020 appear
warmest.)
14) The breathtakingly elegant and simple Svensmark Theory says rising solar-
magnetic output, by deflecting more cosmic rays, reduces cloudiness. This allows
more of the Sun’s warmth to heat the ocean and hence warm the atmosphere (Bullet
5A), instead of being reflected back into space by clouds. In support, a NASA study
of satellite data spanning 1979-2011 (during the ‘Modern Warming’; Bullet 12)
showed decreasing cloud cover. The IPCC dismisses Svensmark's theory.
15) Vocal climate scientist, computer modeler, IPCC 'lead author', and recipient of a
1999 US$1 million private donation to work on his alarming idea that man-made
warming might stop 'Atlantic conveyor belt' (google AMOC) ocean circulation, with
dire consequences for regional climate (cooling), ecosystems and society, Stefan
Rahmstorf (Wiki) of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research wrongly said
in 2008: "there is no viable alternative ... [to CO2 as driver of 1940-2005 warming, as]
... different authors agree that solar activity did not significantly increase”. Yet in
1999, eminent physicist Dr Michael Lockwood FRS (Wiki) and co-authors wrote in
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prestigious Nature journal that from 1964 to 1996 "the total magnetic flux leaving the
Sun has risen by a factor of 1.4” (i.e. more than doubled) and from 1901 to 1992 by
2.3. Supporting Lockwood's work, Steinhilber et al. (2010) showed that "Since the
year 1700, the open solar magnetic flux has increased by about 350%". There is no
evidence that AMOC has ever stopped in the last 9,000 years; my correlations
indicate that the temperature delay ('ocean lag', Bullet 21) was always within the
range 100-200 years (note increasing potential for dating errors, backward in time).
16) Lockwood (Bullet 15) showed that averaged solar magnetic flux increased 131%
from 1901 to 1992, i.e. more than doubled. This solar surge partly drove the ongoing
global warming, via the Svensmark effect (Bullet 14), delayed by 'ocean memory'
(Bullet 21). Bullets 17 and 18 likewise support Svensmark’s theory. Since 1990, global
warming has been mainly by man-made waste heat and black carbon, outweighing
the Sun's influence.
17) In response to the ~300AD solar Grand Maximum (Bullet 12), global warming
occurred from ~350 to ~450AD. Subsequent ‘sawtooth’ cooling mimicked the Sun’s
1,000-year sawtooth decline into the Little Ice Age (LIA). The LIA "has been
conventionally defined as extending from the 16th to the 19th centuries, but some
experts prefer an alternative timespan from about 1300 to about 1850" (Wiki,
accessed 5th Nov 2021). In fact the LIA spans 1440 to 1920 (my Technical Note 2021-
7, fig. 1). The LIA has been attributed to solar downturn (Denton & Karlén 1973;
Lean & Rind 1999). Instead Miller et al. (2012) opined: "The coincidence of repeated
explosive volcanism with centuries of lower-than-modern solar irradiance ...
indicates that volcanic impacts were likely reinforced by external forcing ... but that
an explanation of the LIA does not require a solar trigger". On the contrary, absolute
dominance of solar control is obvious from the strong correlation, after applying a
150-year temperature lag, between the LIA and a prolonged solar lull (Tech. Note
2021-7, fig. 1).
18) In the 'Holocene Climatic Optimum' (Bullet 20) of 8,000 to 2,000BC, Earth was
warmer than now except for about five interludes of a few decades each. Overall
global cooling from 4,000BC to the Little Ice Age (Bullet 9) paralleled Earth's
declining axial obliquity (one of the Milankovitch orbital parameters). Superimposed
on this cooling are convolved (stacked) temperature cycles (decades to ~2,000 years
each) that clearly correlate with solar fluctuations, offset by a time lag attributable to
'ocean lag' (Bullet 21). My discovery of this climate/solar correlation supports
previous authors who interpreted 1,000-2,000-year climate cycles in Pleistocene and
Holocene ice- and (ocean) sediment cores as Sun-driven. Such solar-driven cycles are
probably pervasive throughout geological time. In extreme contrast, the IPCC claims
that the Sun's variations have negligible effect on climate (Bullet 33), partly reflecting
the IPCC's failure to consult geologists (Bullet 1).
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19) This Holocene-age 5,500-year cooling (Bullet 19) mocks IPCC computer models
(Bullet 6) that instead predict warming by the simultaneous (slow) rise in CO2. This
is the "The Holocene Temperature Conundrum" of Liu et al. (2014).
20) Embarrassingly for the IPCC, the 8000-2000BC warm interval (Bullet 18) was
already called the ‘Holocene Climatic Optimum(Wiki) before IPCC's facile 'CO2 =
pollutant' fallacy induced today's climate hysteria and the drive to spend trillions of
dollars on 'carbon capture and storage' (CCS), needlessly and counter-productively,
as atmospheric CO2 is still only 415ppm, well below the optimum for agriculture
and forestry (Bullet 8). The Holocene warmer-than-now episodes may have
benefitted development of civilizations.
21) For at least the last 9,000 years, sawtooth-style global warming/cooling and
solar-magnetic activity correlate very well after applying a temperature lag ('ocean-
memory lag' or 'ocean-lag') of ~150 years (unnoticed by IPCC), attributable to
oceanic thermal inertia (vast ocean volume, high heat capacity and slow global
conveyor-belt circulation [AMOC; Bullet 15]), causing a delayed response to changes
in solar-magnetic flux, which controls cloudiness, hence global temperature
(Svensmark, Bullet 14). The HadCRUT temperature chart spans only 171 years (1850-
2021), just 21 years longer than the 150-year lag, helping to explain why the strong
solar/temperature correlation was never noticed before. The similarity of my ~150-
year ocean lag to the calculated "ventilation time" (~100 years; Broecker 1979) or
"residence time" (~180 years; Brocker 1991) of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW,
involved in AMOC circulation) suggests they are related. The solar/temperature
correlation progressively worsens after 1950, attributable to increasing climatic
influence of man-made black carbon and waste heat, which since ~1990 exceeds the
Sun's influence.
22) The IPCC says ongoing global warming despite solar weakening (since 1991;
Bullet 12) disqualifies the Sun as the cause of warming. This disingenuously ignores
the time-lag caused by oceanic thermal inertia, of which the IPCC is well aware, and
which brings the Sun's past 'ups-and-downs' ('sawteeth') into alignment with global
temperature ups-and-downs (Bullets 12A, 21). Thus, one of the three pillars upon
which the 'Anthropogenic (man-made) Global Warming' by CO2 dogma stands is
demolished. The other two are equally easy to dismiss, namely (i) simultaneous
warming and acceleration in CO2 since 1850 (mere coincidence; Bullet 24), and (ii)
the claim that the 30cm sea-level rise since 1850 is unprecedented in 2,000 years
(Bullet 26).
23) The last interglacial period, ~120,000 years ago, was warmer than our Holocene
interglacial. Humans and polar bears survived! CO2 was about 275 ppm, i.e. lower
than now (Bullet 8), at a time of greater warmth (due to higher Milankovitch
insolation).
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24) The joint rise of Earth's temperature and man-made CO2 since 1850 is a ‘spurious
correlation' (Bullet 5C). Temperature correlates much better with solar output (after
applying a 150-year 'ocean lag'; Bullet 21), but only until ~1990, when growth of
man-made black carbon and waste heat overtook solar variations as the main cause
of climate change. (NB The CO2 curve is a valid proxy for black carbon and waste
heat, as all three primarily reflect rapidly growing combustion of fossil fuels,
especially oil and coal.) Therefore IPCC's demonising of CO2 as a ‘pollutant’ is a
colossal blunder, wasting trillions of dollars on needless 'carbon capture and storage'
(CCS). Instead, governments should focus urgently on the imminent Sun-driven sea-
level rise of 2-3 metres by ~2100 (Bullets 12A, 26).
25) Whether or not human efforts to reduce CO2 are successful, within the next few
millennia our benign Holocene ‘interglacial’ period will gradually end, by
Milankovitch orbital forcing (Bullet 18), introducing the next glacial period, reaching
peak coldness in ~50,000 years.
26) The IPCC says sea level (SL) from 0 to 1800AD varied <25cm (and <1m since
4000BC) and never exceeded today’s SL, therefore the 30cm SL rise measured since
1850 is abnormal, they say, blaming industrial CO2. But this claim, based on cherry-
picked evidence, all flawed, ignores dozens of studies of geological and
archaeological 3000BC-1000AD SL benchmarks globally, which reveal 3 or 4 SL rises
(and falls) of 1-3m in <200 years each (i.e. max. rate >15mm/year), all reaching
higher than today, long before industrial CO2, and all attributable to exceptional
solar grand maxima.
27) According to the IPCC, if industrial CO2 emissions were allowed to continue
growing until 2080 and then slowly decline, atmospheric CO2 concentration would
stabilize ~2140 at a new equilibrium value of ~750ppm, beneficially nearer the
optimum for plant photosynthesis (Bullet 8). This is scenario RPC6.0 of the IPCC,
whose modeling indicates that this rise in CO2 would cause ~2.5C° of warming
between 2020 and 2150, after which the warming curve nearly flattens. But IPCC
models are deeply flawed (Bullets 6, 19). Moreover, CO2 is innocent; instead man-
made warming (AGW) is by growth of black carbon and waste heat (Bullet 5C),
whose effect now (since ~1990) outweighs the Sun's influence on climate, so they
need to be first stabilized (zero growth) and then reduced by increasing the
efficiency of energy conversion (e.g. typically ~60% of a coal-fired power station's
energy production is waste heat; Bian 2020) and by conservation (decreasing our
total energy consumption).
28) NASA's 'ClimateKids' website (accessed 1st Nov. 2021) says "Extra greenhouse
gases in our atmosphere are the main reason that Earth is getting warmer". This
belief, stated as fact, is based largely on guesswork (e.g. Bullet 5B), and is disproved
in my recent Technical Note 2021-7 (Oct. 2021). The website also frightens children
with "today the planet is warming much faster than it has over human history". This
!
p.!10!of!11!
unfounded claim refers to the NASA 1880-2020 thermometer graph's steepest sector
(1975 to 2020 warmed 1 C°, i.e. rate = 2.2 C°/century). The claim is impossible to
prove because, for the pre-thermometer era (before 1850), only proxy-temperature
graphs (from ice cores etc.) are available for comparison with the post-1850
thermometer record ('apples and oranges'). Such graphs, going back thousands of
years, are of much lower resolution and are also invariably smoothed, both factors
reducing the number and height of proxy-temperature 'spikes', thereby hiding the
true rates of short-term (decades) warmings. Society is in a bad way when formerly
prestigious NASA, which once enthralled children by landing men on the moon, is
reduced to scaring them with misinformation and false claims, damaging their
mental health (see also Bullet 8).
29) In March 2020 I exposed Wikipedia's November 2019 deletion of its 'List of
scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus on global warming' (Bullet 4),
which named 79 renowned PhD scientists (each with his/her own Wikipedia entry),
from diverse sciences, brave enough to publically challenge the global CO2 delusion.
(Tens of thousands of other 'skeptical' scientists are sadly too timid to join in,
possibly scared for their jobs.) Thus, your children may never know that many
prominent, impartial scientists disagree with the claim by the under-qualified,
disingenuous IPCC (Bullets 1, 6, 22) that global warming is due to man-made CO2.
This is global censorship by 'Tricky Wiki'. Fortunately the list survives, both hard-
copy (contact me for pdf) and online (for now).
30) The Royal Observatory of Belgium's SILSO group produced a "corrected" new
sunspot series, now widely accepted, enlarging the 1778 sunspot peak, such that the
1958 peak (Bullet 12) looks less exceptional. The result was announced in a 2015
press release by SILSO Director Frédéric Clette: "The new record has no significant
long-term upward trend in solar activity since 1700, as was previously indicated.
This suggests that rising global temperatures since the industrial revolution cannot
be attributed to increased solar activity." However, this conclusion neglects 'ocean
lag' (Bullet 21): after applying a ~150-year temperature lag, warmings and coolings
since the start of the Industrial Revolution (~1850) closely match solar output,
although, from 1950 onward, man-made waste heat and black carbon progressively
overtook the Sun's influence on climate (Higgs 2021 figs 1, 2).
31) The NASA and HadCRUT graphs (Bullet 11) depict 1980 to 2016 land- and sea
warming of 1.2 and 0.5C° respectively, i.e. land warming twice as fast. This
divergence, which only began in 1980, is among the evidence (see also Bullet 30) that
anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is underway, but not by CO2; instead man-
made black carbon and waste heat have overtaken the Sun as the main climate
driver (Higgs 2021).
32) The 'Hockey stick controversy' (Wiki) refers to reconstructed proxy (tree rings
etc.) temperature graphs by Michael Mann and co-authors, likened by climatologist
!
p.!11!of!11!
Jerry Mahlman to a hockey stick, with its long 'shaft' descending (cooling) into the
Little Ice Age (Bullet 9), where it connects to a short, sharply rising 'blade'. "The
original MBH88 hockey stick" (Mann 2012) is the Mann et al. (1998, fig. 5b) graph
spanning 1400AD to 1995, as opposed to the longer-handled 1000 to 1998 "hockey
stick ... of MBH99" (i.e. Mann et al. 1999 fig. 3a). Many AGW skeptics and deniers
(Bullet 4) accused Mann of fraudulently claiming the 1990s was the warmest decade
of the last millennium simply by erasing the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) 'hump'
portrayed on the 900-1950AD temperature graph by Hubert Lamb (1965), pioneer
palaeoclimatologist and originator of the MWP concept, re-published with minor
alterations by the IPCC (Folland et al. 1990), showing the MWP crest at ~1150AD
and warmer than today. But Lamb's graph was only an approximation, based mostly
on historical documents. Moreover, proxy graphs published subsequently to those of
Mann (i.e. post-1999), and extending further back (to 1AD), vindicated Mann and
confirmed the MWP crest was well before 1000AD and was already surpassed by
Modern Warming by 2000 or possibly as early as 1950.
33) The IPCC assures us that Earth's temperature is controlled by CO2 and that the
Sun has minuscule or zero effect. This is precisely backwards. In truth, solar-
magnetic output controlled our climate (Svensmark Theory, Bullet 14) for the last
10,000 years, until outweighed since 1990 by man-made warming due to black
carbon and waste heat, while CO2 has no influence (Bullet 5C; Higgs 2021). Solar
output variations even control the timing of major volcanic eruptions (affecting
climate; Bullet 11) and large earthquakes.
CONCLUSION
These 33 bullets collectively prove that any CO2 effect on global temperatures of the
Holocene period (i.e. the last 11,650 years), including the 'Modern Warming' period
since 1910, was nil or too small to detect. Almost certainly CO2's greenhouse effect is
nullified by negative feedbacks greatly underestimated by the IPCC; this explains
‘The Holocene Temperature Conundrum’ and why 'runaway' warming is unknown
throughout geological history. Holocene temperature changes were instead driven
by solar-magnetic fluctuations (controlling cloudiness via the Svensmark Theory),
superimposed on long-term cooling by Earth's declining axial obliquity. 1990-2020
warming was entirely anthropogenic, by steep growth of man-made black carbon
and waste heat, now outweighing (since ~1990) the Sun's influence on climate.
___________________________________________________________________________
GERMAN TRANSLATION of the first 25 of these 33 bullet points ...
https://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/2019/06/18/25-punkte-die-beweisen-dass-co2-
keine-globale-erwaermung-verursacht-diesmal-von-einem-geologen/
CHINESE TRANSLATION ...
https://principia-scientific.org/全球暖的元凶是太阳而不是二氧化碳-个角度看/
or https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334823689
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any citations for this publication.
Article
Full-text available
The last interglacial period, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, was characterized by global mean surface temperatures that were at least 2 °C warmer than present1. Mean sea level stood 4–6 m higher than modern sea level2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, with an important contribution from a reduction of the Greenland ice sheet1, 14. Although some fossil reef data indicate sea-level fluctuations of up to 10 m around the mean3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, so far it has not been possible to constrain the duration and rates of change of these shorter-term variations. Here, we use a combination of a continuous high-resolution sea-level record, based on the stable oxygen isotopes of planktonic foraminifera from the central Red Sea15, 16, 17, 18, and age constraints from coral data to estimate rates of sea-level change during MIS-5e. We find average rates of sea-level rise of 1.6 m per century. As global mean temperatures during MIS-5e were comparable to projections for future climate change under the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions19, 20, these observed rates of sea-level change inform the ongoing debate about high versus low rates of sea-level rise in the coming century21, 22.
Article
Full-text available
The last glacial cycle was characterized by substantial millennial-scale climate fluctuations, but the extent of any associated changes in global sea level (or, equivalently, ice volume) remains elusive. Highstands of sea level can be reconstructed from dated fossil coral reef terraces, and these data are complemented by a compilation of global sea-level estimates based on deep-sea oxygen isotope ratios at millennial-scale resolution or higher. Records based on oxygen isotopes, however, contain uncertainties in the range of +/-30 m, or +/-1 degrees C in deep sea temperature. Here we analyse oxygen isotope records from Red Sea sediment cores to reconstruct the history of water residence times in the Red Sea. We then use a hydraulic model of the water exchange between the Red Sea and the world ocean to derive the sill depth-and hence global sea level-over the past 470,000 years (470 kyr). Our reconstruction is accurate to within +/-12 m, and gives a centennial-scale resolution from 70 to 25 kyr before present. We find that sea-level changes of up to 35 m, at rates of up to 2 cm yr(-1), occurred, coincident with abrupt changes in climate.
Smooth or oscillating late Holocene sea-level curve? Evidence from cross-regional statistical regressions of fixed biological indicators
Journal article: Baker & Haworth 2000a, 'Smooth or oscillating late Holocene sea-level curve? Evidence from cross-regional statistical regressions of fixed biological indicators', Marine Geology, vol. 163, p. 353-365...
Smooth or oscillating late Holocene sea-level curve? Evidence from the palaeo-zoology of fixed biological indicators in east Australia and beyond
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/312990537_Smooth_or_oscillating_Late_Holo cene_sea_levels_in_the_Southern_Hemispherea_statistical_analysis Journal article: Baker & Haworth 2000b, 'Smooth or oscillating late Holocene sea-level curve? Evidence from the palaeo-zoology of fixed biological indicators in east Australia and beyond', Marine Geology, vol. 163, p. 367-386...
Red Sea sea level Nature+supplement.pdf ... see Fig. 4c, sea-level curve (red) from data of Shackleton et al
http://www.highstand.org/erohling/Rohling-papers/2003-Siddall et al 2003 Red Sea sea level Nature+supplement.pdf ... see Fig. 4c, sea-level curve (red) from data of Shackleton et al. 2000. Journal article: Thompson & Goldstein 2005, 'Open-system coral ages reveal persistent suborbital sea-level cycles'...
This 4,500yr-long cooling mocks IPCC computer models that instead predict warming by the simultaneous (slow) rise in CO2. This is the 'The Holocene Temperature Conundrum
  • Liu
This 4,500yr-long cooling mocks IPCC computer models that instead predict warming by the simultaneous (slow) rise in CO2. This is the 'The Holocene Temperature Conundrum' of Liu et al. (2014). See also Bullet 6.