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Navigating the roadmap for clean, secure and efficient energy innovation: Final Report on SET-Nav Policy Briefs

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NAVIGATING THE ROADMAP FOR CLEAN, SECURE AND
EFFICIENT ENERGY INNOVATION
Final Report on SET-Nav Policy Briefs
Author(s):
Charikleia Karakosta, Katerina Papapostolou
(NTUA);
Pedro Crespo del Granado, Ruud Egging (NTNU);
Marijke Welisch, Michael Hartner, Gustav Resch,
Sebastian Forthuber, Lukas Kranzl, Eric Aichinger,
Andreas Müller (TU Wien);
Charlie Wilson, Louis Coningsby, Yeong-Jae Kim
(UEA);
Sara Lumbreras, Luis Olmos, Andrés Ramos
(Universidad Pontificia Comillas);
Frank Sensfuss, Gerda Deac Christiane Bernath,
Andrea Herbst, Stephanie Heitel, Michael Krail,
Jonathan Köhler, Tobias Fleiter, Matthias Rehfeldt
(Fraunhofer ISI);
Dawud Ansari, Franziska Holz (DIW Berlin);
Peter Kotek, Borbala Toth, Adrienn Selei (REKK);
Baptiste Boitier, Arnaud Fougeyrollas (SEURECO);
Gerardo A. Perez-Valdes, Ulf Johansen (SINTEF);
March / 2019
A report compiled within the H2020 project SET-Nav
(work package 11, deliverable D11.14)
www.set-nav.eu
Project Coordinator: Technische Universität Wien (TU
Wien)
Work Package Coordinator: National Technical
University of Athens (NTUA)
Project coordinator:
Gustav Resch, Marijke Welisch
Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien), Institute of Energy
Systems and Electrical Drives, Energy Economics Group (EEG)
Address: Gusshausstrasse 25/370-3, A-1040 Vienna, Austria
Phone: +43 1 58801 370354
Fax: +43 1 58801 370397
Email: resch@eeg.tuwien.ac.at; welisch@eeg.tuwien.ac.at
Web: www.eeg.tuwien.ac.at
Dissemination leader:
Haris Doukas, Charikleia Karakosta (Project Web)
National Technical University of Athens (NTUA-EPU)
Address: 9, Iroon Polytechniou str., 15780, Zografou,
Athens, Greece
Phone: +30 210 7722083
Fax: +30 210 7723550
Email: h_doukas@epu.ntua.gr; chkara@epu.ntua.gr
Web: http://www.epu.ntua.gr
Lead author of this report:
Dr Charikleia Karakosta
National Technical University of Athens (NTUA-EPU)
Address: 9, Iroon Polytechniou str., 15780, Zografou,
Athens, Greece
Phone: +30 210 7722083
Fax: +30 210 7723550
Email: chkara@epu.ntua.gr
Web: http://www.epu.ntua.gr
Table of Contents
1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 1
2 Innovation Systems and the SET Plan ........................................................................................ 1
2.1 Systemic Perspective on Energy Innovation .................................................................... 1
2.2 Research on Innovation Systems and the SET Plan ....................................................... 1
2.3 Policy Recommendations and the SET Plan ..................................................................... 2
3 Policy implications and priorities from modelling in the SET-Nav project ......................... 3
3.1 What next steps and priorities for the SET Plan? ........................................................... 3
3.2 The SET-Nav pathways ........................................................................................................... 4
3.3 What are the important elements, drivers and factors of the energy transition
and their cost-effective solutions (for each pathway)? ................................................ 4
3.4 Summary of key findings for the different pathways .................................................... 5
4 SET-Nav Case Studies Conclusions and Policy Recommendations ...................................... 6
4.1 Model integration & Global perspectives ........................................................................ 6
4.2 Energy Systems: Demand perspective............................................................................... 7
4.3 Energy Systems: Infrastructure ............................................................................................ 8
4.4 Energy Systems: Supply perspective .................................................................................. 9
5 References ...........................................................................................................................................11
D11.14: Final Report on SET-Nav Policy Briefs
Page 1
1 Introduction
The Policy Brief: Final Report on SET-Nav Policy Briefs was developed to summarise the project’s
outcomes. This policy brief includes the main policy recommendations arisen from SET-Nav’s
implementation. More particularly, the brief highlights the ways that research on innovation
systems can inform the SET Plan, investigates the energy and climate status development towards
2050 through the introduction of SET-Nav pathways, briefly presents the SET-Nav case studies and
underlines the policy implications and priorities from modelling in the SET-Nav project.
2 Innovation Systems and the SET Plan
This briefing uses a systemic perspective on energy innovation to inform the EU's Strategic Energy
Technology (SET) Plan. The briefing makes five high level recommendations each of which is
supported by a series of specific research insights. These insights are set out in a longer policy
report which provides extensive examples, arguments, and links to relevant research literature
1
2.1 Systemic Perspective on Energy Innovation
A systemic perspective on innovation (right panel of Figure 1) emphasises that innovation stages
and processes like R&D and market diffusion are supported by a broader innovation environment
comprising knowledge, actors & institutions, resources, and adoption & use.
2
A systemic
perspective also identifies structural and transformational failures that provide a strong rationale
for policy.
3
Innovation system policies involve a diverse range of policy instruments.
4
A systemic
perspective on innovation emphasises multi-stakeholder governance of innovation processes, and
enabling frameworks or conditions to direct innovation activity.
Figure 1. Conventional vs. systemic perspectives on energy innovation.
5
2.2 Research on Innovation Systems and the SET Plan
1. Ensure the SET Plan is directed by a shared vision towards clear goals: Shared visions
establish the legitimacy and credibility of directed system transformations, and should be
articulated by a wide range of social and political actors.
2. Ensure the SET Plan builds strong networks among diverse innovation actors: Networks
D11.14: Final Report on SET-Nav Policy Briefs
Page 2
between innovation actors support the availability and flow of information within an
innovation system.
3. Ensure the SET Plan aligns institutions and builds user demand for technological
innovations: Coordinated and aligned institutions complement technological innovation;
misaligned institutions stagnate innovation.
4. Ensure the SET Plan coordinates an effective mix of stable innovation policies matched
to specific innovation needs: Mix of policies is necessary to address the diverse structural
and transformational failures in innovation systems. Policy mixes contain technology-push
and market-pull instruments.
5. Ensure the SET Plan generates policy intelligence to support learning and adaptation:
Policymaking for energy innovation is open-ended and uncertain. Policy intelligence helps
anticipate emerging opportunities, risks of failure, and alternative options.
2.3 Policy Recommendations and the SET Plan
Table 1 maps the five high-level policy recommendations onto the main elements of the SET Plan.
These elements are grouped under strategy, governance, and mechanisms. The mapping in Table
1 identifies how and where the SET Plan can incorporate the policy recommendations provided by
a systemic perspective on energy innovation.
Table 1. Policy recommendations mapped onto SET Plan elements.
Notes: shade of green denotes strength of mapping (dark = strong correspondence … light = weak
correspondence).
Ensure the SET Plan …
STRATEGY
GOVERNANCE
MECHANISMS
priority areas and
actions
action-specific targets
and roadmaps
steering group and
management
stakeholder networks
monitoring and
reporting
funding mechanisms
1
is directed by a shared vision towards
clear goals.
2
… builds a strong network among diverse
innovation actors.
3
aligns institutions and builds user
demand for technological innovation.
4
… coordinates an effective mix of stable
innovation policies matched to specific
innovation needs.
5
… generates policy intelligence to support
learning and adaptation.
D11.14: Final Report on SET-Nav Policy Briefs
Page 3
3 Policy implications and priorities from modelling
in the SET-Nav project
The SET Plan aims to accelerate the development and deployment of low-carbon technologies. It
seeks to improve new technologies and bring down costs by coordinating national research efforts
and helping to finance projects. In this policy brief, we focus on specific energy transition questions
addressed by the SET Nav pathways. Through a large-scale modelling effort, we describe key
insights based on the SET-Nav main modelling perspectives: demand side, energy supply and
infrastructure, and the macroeconomic effects.
3.1 What next steps and priorities for the SET Plan?
According to SET-Nav analysis, the following key priorities for the SET-Plan should be made:
The diversity of the energy technology portfolio across the full set of priority areas should
be increased. At the same time, more consistency is needed, specifically by increasing SET
Plan activity in the areas of generation, codification, spillover, and international flows of
knowledge in the sustainable transport and energy efficiency areas. Furthermore, market
activity and innovation efforts should be aligned, especially in the smart grid and
sustainable transport areas.
Regarding the different sectors, the main priorities from the demand side are decentralised
heat supply, heat pumps and implementing corresponding activities. Furthermore, to
decarbonise industry, extending the ETS with a minimum price as well as expanding public
RD&I funding are important measures. Furthermore, a CO2 tax as the central element of a
broader energy tax reform could provide the incentives needed for fuel switching. Policies
to overcome barriers to energy efficiency are also crucial, as is pushing sales of electric
vehicles and inducing a modal shift from cars to public transport, car-sharing, cycling and
walking.
In terms of energy infrastructure, electricity network development for integrating new RES
generation is a prerequisite, as is preparing grids for the integration of large volumes of
Distributed Energy Resources (DER) and for new forms of storage. From the supply
perspective, our analysis shows that direct electrification should be favoured wherever
reasonable as it is more efficient and leads to fewer requirements on generation
infrastructures (e.g., power grid upgrades or conventional generation).
The final takeaway is that efficient decarbonisation via direct or indirect electrification
requires efficient linkages between the energy markets by monitoring close to real-time
carbon content of energy carriers.
D11.14: Final Report on SET-Nav Policy Briefs
Page 4
3.2 The SET-Nav pathways
The EU Energy Roadmap 2050
6
and various stakeholders’ discussions with the European
Commission have outlined four main decarbonisation routes for the energy sector. These are
Energy Efficiency; Renewable Energy Sources (RES); Nuclear; and Carbon Capture & Storage. The
SET-Nav pathways assess the drivers, factors and scenario dimensions that affect these
decarbonisation options.
Figure 2: SET-Nav pathway storyline
visualisation
The diversification pathway depicts a
decentralised but cooperative world where
many new entrants and heterogeneous actors
determine the market. Digitalisation, prosumers
and high support for coordination as well as
regulatory opening characterise this pathway.
The directed vision pathway goes in a different
direction. Although the scenario is still a
cooperative one, we see more path dependency
and strong EU guidance in determining the
shared vision. Large actors are favoured.
The other set of storylines is less cooperative: the localisation pathway focuses on the exploitation
of local resources. National strategies differ according to country and public resistance leads to
lower investment in big new infrastructure but rather favours the emergence of market niches and
digitalisation. Finally, the national champions pathway minimises transition costs which allows a
strong role for incumbent firms and utilities. This transition is highly path dependent and favours
large-scale projects. For more details on pathway modelling and analysis, see the SET-Nav Pathways
report.
7
3.3 What are the important elements, drivers and factors of the energy
transition and their cost-effective solutions (for each pathway)?
Diversification
Directed Vision
Localisation
National Champions
Buildings
a mix of decentral
heat pumps, biomass
boilers and solar
thermal systems in
combination with IT
solutions for smart
heating are the
cornerstones of CO2
mitigation
technologies
same technologies as
in diversification, but
with less focus on
smart heating
solutions and less use
of decentral heat
pumps
it is assumed that due
to regulations higher
market shares of
district heating can be
reached. Decentral
renewable heating
options still play a key
role in areas with lower
heat density
member states follow
very different strategies.
It is also assumed that
member states with
currently high shares of
natural gas could opt for
green gas solutions to
avoid the
decommissioning of gas
grids
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Page 5
Industry
a stronger fuel switch
to biomass, power-
to-heat, power-to-
gas and radical
changes in industrial
processes (e.g.
switch to hydrogen,
low carbon cement
sorts) take place
no radical process
improvements take
place, as companies
invest in CCS for major
energy-intensive point
sources instead of
other radical process
improvements
a stronger fuel switch
to biomass, power-to-
heat, power-to-gas
and radical changes in
industrial processes
(e.g. switch to
hydrogen, low carbon
cement sorts) take
place
no radical process
improvements take
place, as companies
invest in CCS for major
energy-intensive point
sources instead of other
radical process
improvements.
Transport
transport system as a
‘mobility as a service’
system. Multi-modal
information
platforms and
services, car-sharing
and autonomous
driving enter into the
market early in this
pathway and overall
efficiency increases
joint decisions on
technology across EU
countries like
overhead-cable
infrastructure for
trolley trucks and
phase-out of pure
fossil-fuel based cars,
prices for new
technologies decline
fast. In addition, strong
support for improving
public transport also
for national and
international distances
supports the modal
shift to more efficient
modes
car-sharing, public
transport, walking and
cycling increases.
Decentral electricity
production including
roof-top PV increases
incentives for
households to buy
electric cars. Overall
technological learning
is slower due to more
technological diversity.
Therefore, and due to
the focus on using
local resources, the
demand for biofuels is
relatively high
The strategy is to stay
with internal
combustion engine
technologies but
substituting fossil fuels
by biofuels.
Technological progress
for sustainable biofuel
production (incl. 2nd-
and 3rd-generation
biofuels) and optimal
use is made of biomass
and existing filling
station infrastructure
can be maintained
3.4 Summary of key findings for the different pathways
We identified a variety of actions to achieve a decarbonised future taking different pathways. The
different pathways are based on storylines of different, largely political decisions regarding the
future of the European Union. Depending on political realities, different key research questions will
come into focus. Below, a few examples show how they might play out.
Diversification
Directed Vision
- innovation research
- developing a variety of new technologies
- strong use of local renewable resources with
very high hydrogen demand
- more likely to call for ideas on how to expand
the grid
- manage cross-border flows of electricity in the
most cos- efficient manner
Localisation
National Champions
- innovative solutions for decentralised energy
and the distribution grid
- radical changes in industrial processes,
stronger switch to biomass, power-to-heat,
power-to-gas
- strong use of local renewable resources with
very high hydrogen demand
- would need decarbonisation solutions for an
incumbent energy sector
- Green gas solutions
- No radical changes in industrial processes and
continued use of the internal combustion
engine
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Page 6
4 SET-Nav Case Studies Conclusions and Policy
Recommendations
Using SET-Nav’s strengthened modelling capabilities in an integrated modelling hierarchy, multiple
dimensions of impact of future pathways: sustainability, reliability and supply security, global
competitiveness and efficiency are analysed. This analysis combines bottom-up “case studies”
linked to the full range of SET-Plan themes with holistic “transformation pathways” described in the
previous section. The conclusions and policy recommendations that emerged from each case study
are presented in brief below.
4.1 Model integration & Global perspectives
Modelling the European energy system and taking account of the inter-dependence between
European policy and the global demand and supply of fuels is no easy task. SET-Nav determines a
number of important parameters regarding the global fuel markets (prices, import availability).
Scenarios or the global fossil fuel markets
Capturing the interdependence between European low-carbon policy interventions with other
regions is of paramount importance. Incorporating the reaction of global fossil fuel prices to
domestic demand for fuel imports and European technological progress is critical to understand
issues, such as carbon leakage and technology spill-overs. Vice-versa, trends in global fossil fuel
markets will influence decisions in Europe. This case study captures the interdependence between
European policy and global fossil and renewable energy markets as well as technological progress.
8
Conclusions and policy recommendations
International relations and the state of security are strongly tied to the renewable energy transition
in the long‐run.
Regional conflicts and resulting humanitarian crises have fuelled the re-emergence of protectionist
policies and represent a risk not only for European integration, but also for the effectiveness of the
European Union’s energy and climate policies in the absence of multilateral climate cooperation.
However, as some recent examples have shown, too, greater cooperation between countries in the
form of investments as well as technological and financial transfers could well spur a new dynamic
for international climate policy.
Energy transition needs to be integrated with wider economic objectives such as poverty alleviation,
infrastructure modernisation, and private investment.
While that relationship appears to already hold in today’s world, it is easily strained by political
tensions and protectionist policies. Growing energy demand from the developing world can easily
jeopardise mitigation efforts if coordination between economic and energy‐related objectives is
absent. The ‘Green Democracy’ storyline, however, conversely highlights the opportunities to be
seized in the energy transition.
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Page 7
It is crucial to develop an inclusive approach to policy‐making that combines both mitigation and
adaptation options.
Adaptation technologies are not necessarily risk‐free and failure to adopt a comprehensive
approach could very well lead to new environmental, societal, and political problems that would
further hinder the global energy transition. At the other end of the spectrum, balancing the use of
both options can encourage new investments, stakeholders, and more dynamic relationships
between the relevant actors.
4.2 Energy Systems: Demand perspective
The main objective of the simulation of energy in industrial processes is to set-up a modelling
framework that allows simulating the transition to a low-carbon energy system for the industrial
sector in an integrated manner. Technology solutions like RES, energy efficiency, CCS and the links
to the power and gas sectors are considered. For the analysis the existing bottom-up model
FORECAST-Industry is used that has been applied in various EU and national projects for similar
research questions
9
.
A combination of measures is required to accelerate the transition towards a decarbonized
transport system. The diffusion of low and zero-emission technologies depends on several factors,
in particular vehicle prices and running costs, sufficient filling and charging infrastructure,
convenience and the variety of available vehicle models. Measures to push sales of electric vehicles
include stricter fuel efficiency or CO2 standards that put pressure on the automotive industry to
develop and offer more and better electric vehicle alternatives to conventional ICE vehicles,
infrastructure deployment to ensure reliability and to reduce range anxieties and measures to
reduce costs for new technologies while increasing costs for conventional vehicles (such as fuel
taxes and vehicle registration taxes based on the related emissions). Decisions on phasing out pure
ICE cars are an effective intervention to accelerate the diffusion of alternative drive technologies
and should be taken into consideration. By 2030, the infrastructure required for low-emission
technologies should be implemented at least for the core motorway network. This includes
depending on the chosen technologies overhead cables for trolley trucks, sufficient filling and fast
charging stations including their supply with hydrogen and sustainable biofuels.
Modal shift from cars to the more efficient modes public transport, car sharing, cycling and walking
can be achieved by making cars less attractive via urban policies (ban in cities at least for fossil-fuel
based cars, parking policies) while promoting and increasing the convenience of more sustainable
modes (multi-modal platforms enabling seamless ticketing, reduced waiting times and real-time
trip planning; town planning measures to improve infrastructure for active modes).
The diffusion of zero-emission vehicles like battery electric cars, fuel cell electric trucks and hybrid
trolley trucks generates an increasing electricity demand by the transport sector. Increasing biofuel
shares as blend for fossil fuels leads to a growth of required biomass. Biofuel production capacities
need to be built up. In contrast, the consumption of fossil fuels should decrease strongly over time.
The ambitious scenarios and pathways analysed reflect radical changes that need to be achieved
within only three decades. Policies need to be in place soon to drive this transition considering the
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Page 8
lifetime of vehicles, the required time for fundamental acceptance of new technologies and for
changes in behaviour, supply chains and business models.
If there are coordinated joint approaches between countries, prices for new technologies could
decrease faster due to learning effects and economies of scale. Intensive discussions are required
on the best policy mix on European and national level. Relevant discussion points include the
current strategy of technological openness versus a focus on the most cost-efficient technology
pathway and most effective and cost-efficient policy measures. Moreover, measures for the
transition should ensure affordability and inclusiveness of mobility. More research seems needed
to evaluate alternative technologies and strategies for the deployment of new infrastructure.
Studies on acceptance, economic, social and ecological impacts and secure supply of scarce
resources should be considered when narrowing options down to specific technological solutions.
4.3 Energy Systems: Infrastructure
The security of energy supply is a key policy objective that presents a special significance in the
case of natural gas, where imports dependency is particularly high. Strengthening and diversifying
the connections to major suppliers, and investing in additional LNG regasification capacity will be
instrumental to reduce this supply risk. These infrastructure upgrades have a deep impact in the
future European energy system.
Three case-study analyses were conducted
10
.
The first one, “Decentralised vs. centralised development of the electricity sector impact on the
transmission grid” evaluated the different needs for transmission when developing renewables
either in a centralized way (for instance, large wind farms) versus the same capacity in distributed
technologies (namely, rooftop PV). We could see that the centralised case is much more cost
effective, although generation is much less costly in the centralised case, the infrastructure needs
are high in both scenarios.
The second case study, ”The role for carbon capture transport and storage in electricity and industry
in the future”, showed that with an optimistic perspective on CCTS costs and the availability of
advanced CCS technology, one can expect the installation of 55 GW of CCTS capacity in the
electricity sector until 2050, considering a moderate climate policy ambition in the Business as Usual
Pathway, or even 189 GW in electricity and, in addition, 2 bn. t of CO2 captured in the industry
sector if the climate ambition is high, as in the Decarbonization Pathway. With pessimistic
assumptions on the CCTS cost development, CCTS would not be deployed at all.
The third case study, “Projects of common interest and gas producing pricing strategy” evaluated
a series of possible investments in the European gas network. The overall result is that investment
is in general not needed above the current levels. According to the analysis, the following PCIs are
to be commissioned: Shannon LNG terminal in Ireland, Krk LNG terminal in Croatia, Interconnector
between Hungary and Slovenia, Interconnector between Turkey and Bulgaria, Baltic cluster (Tallin
LNG and Baltic pipelines), Interconnector between Poland and Lithuania. Note that this investment
need is highly influenced by the assumption that there is no Russian gas transited via the existing
pipeline system in Ukraine after 2019. For several PCI projects none of the models provide support
D11.14: Final Report on SET-Nav Policy Briefs
Page 9
for their economic or welfare-based feasibility. These are the third interconnector between Spain
and Portugal, the extension of capacities the Czech Republic and Poland (Stork II) and the BRUA
pipeline due to high costs. This WP also analysed the impact of the pathways in the power grid, the
gas network and CCS infrastructure.
Significant investment in the transmission network will be needed in any of the pathways
considered. Thus, the transmission network will play a relevant role in any case. However, it should
be kept in mind that this investment is only a fraction of the investments needed for generation
infrastructure. In particular, those pathways where large amounts of renewable generation are
deployed within some selected locations (Directed Vision and, mainly, Diversification) are the ones
where transmission network developments will be largest. The interconnection between the Central
region and the rest of the Continent will need to be significantly increased in all the pathways.
Additionally, the level of investments to increase the transfer capacity between France and Spain
will be very relevant in all the pathways as well. One last common feature of the development of
the transmission network in all the pathways is the fact that interconnection between the UK and
the rest of the Continent will be heavily developed.
In addition, HVDC comprises around 50% of the new transmission lines across all pathways, which
highlights the importance of considering this type of technology in energy planning studies.
As opposed to the need for power infrastructure, a weak picture of the natural gas sector is shown
across pathways. Although consumers realise considerable cost reduction compared to the
reference case, infrastructure operators, producers, traders lose their traditional revenue streams
and need to re-think the current business model.
The impact of CCS was also rather small in all pathways: the advantages in terms of system costs of
a system with CCS are even less pronounced in the pathways than in the case study, which is why
CCS use is rather small.
4.4 Energy Systems: Supply perspective
This case study presents the analysis of energy supply in strong decarbonisation pathways for
Europe
11
. The developed bottom-up modelling framework is characterized by an unprecedented
high level of detail in spatial temporal and technological resolution.
The modelling results demonstrate, that a stable European electricity and heat grid system is
possible even for the ambitious decarbonisation goal of 96 % reduction. In order to achieve this
GHG emission target, CO2 prices will have to be much higher than today, in our results well above
100 €/t in 2050. However, energy prices do not show such a large increase, because the energy
supply mix is dominated by low carbon technologies. In order to achieve this result efficient
regulation of linkages between the different energy sectors is required. Heat supply and energy
supply of other sectors such as the transport sector need to follow the real time situation of the
electricity sector in an undisturbed way to react to weather situations.
The four scenarios show that there are different technology pathways to reach the target. But
despite the differences it is a robust finding, that renewable energy sources and especially wind
power will play a major role in the future energy supply. Furthermore, heat grids able to distribute
D11.14: Final Report on SET-Nav Policy Briefs
Page 10
heat from fossil or renewable fuels or power-to-heat are an important option to adapt to different
developments in technology.
A strong power transmission grid helps to limit the energy system costs, because it allows to
generate renewable electricity where generation costs are lowest, and it reduces the need for other
(more expensive) flexibility options. Another important measure to keep costs low, is the direct use
of electricity in other sectors such as power-to-heat in heat grids or electric vehicles for transport.
The direct use of electricity in other sectors reduces the requirements for the generation
infrastructure compared to pathways with a stronger usage of hydrogen or "synthetic
hydrocarbons", because these result in less efficient conversion processes.
Our results show that in world which is heavily dominated by renewable electricity generation
electrolysis of hydrogen is a shoulder load technology rather than a base load technology. This
results in a high share of capital costs in overall hydrogen production cost. The reconversion of
hydrogen to electricity is mainly an option to cover rare peaks which cannot be covered with natural
gas in a world with tight carbon budget.
The comparison of the pathways and the spatial results for the allocation of renewable generation
units clearly indicates that public acceptance for generation infrastructure will be crucial aspect for
the road ahead. All pathways show infrastructures which will raise acceptance issues, such as grid
renewables deployment, CCS or nuclear. Even the localisation pathway requires large amounts of
generation infrastructures which are concentrated in certain regions of Europe.
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Page 11
5 References
1
Coningsby, L. and C. Wilson (2016). Background Report: Innovation Systems and the SET Plan.
SET-Nav Project Deliverable D3.1b. Available at: www.set-nav.eu
2
Wilson, C., et al. (2012). Marginalization of end-use technologies in energy innovation for climate
protection. Nature Climate Change, 2(11): p. 780-788.
3
Weber, K.M. and H. Rohracher (2012). Legitimizing research, technology and innovation policies
for transformative change: Combining insights from innovation systems and multi-level
perspective in a comprehensive ‘failures’ framework. Research Policy. 41(6): p. 1037-1047.
4
Wieczorek, A.J. and M.P. Hekkert (2012). Systemic instruments for systemic innovation problems:
A framework for policy makers and innovation scholars. Science and Public Policy. 39(1): p. 74-
87.
5
Grubler, A., et al. (2012), Policies for The Energy Technology Innovation System, in Global Energy
Assessment, T.B. Johansson, et al., Editors, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK.
6
European Commission (2011). Energy Roadmap 2050, COM(2011) 885/2.
7
Crespo del Granado P. et. al. (2019). Comprehensive report SET-Nav Comparative assessment
and analysis of pathways”, SET-Nav project, http://set-nav.eu/content/pages/results
8
Ansari D. and Holz F. (2018). “Issue Paper on Scenarios of the global fossil fuel markets”, SET-Nav
project, available at: http://set-nav.eu/content/pages/issue-papers
9
Hartner M. et al. (2019). Summary report Energy Systems: Demand perspective, SET-Nav project,
http://set-nav.eu/content/pages/results
10
Lumbreras S. et al. (2019). Summary report Energy Systems: Demand perspective, SET-Nav
project, http://set-nav.eu/content/pages/results
11
Sensfuß F. et al. (2019). Summary report - Energy Systems: Infrastructure, SET-Nav project,
http://set-nav.eu/content/pages/results
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any citations for this publication.
Article
Full-text available
Mitigating climate change requires directed innovation efforts to develop and deploy energy technologies. Innovation activities are directed towards the outcome of climate protection by public institutions, policies and resources that in turn shape market behaviour. We analyse diverse indicators of activity throughout the innovation system to assess these efforts. We find efficient end-use technologies contribute large potential emission reductions and provide higher social returns on investment than energy-supply technologies. Yet public institutions, policies and financial resources pervasively privilege energy-supply technologies. Directed innovation efforts are strikingly misaligned with the needs of an emissions-constrained world. Significantly greater effort is needed to develop the full potential of efficient end-use technologies.
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The development and introduction of heat pumps provides an interesting illustration of policy influence and effectiveness in relation to energy technology innovation. Heat pumps have been supported by several countries since the 1970s as a strategy to improve energy efficiency, support energy security, reduce environmental degradation, and combat climate change. Sweden and Switzerland have been essential to the development and commercialization of heat pumps in Europe. In both countries, numerous policy incentives have lined the path of technology and market development. Early policy initiatives were poorly coordinated but supported technology development, entrepreneurial experimentation, knowledge development, and the involvement of important actors in networks and organisations. The market collapse in the mid 1980s could have resulted in a total failure ‐ but did not. The research programmes continued in the 1980s, and a new set of stakeholders formed ‐ both publicly and privately funded researchers, authorities, and institutions ‐ and provided an important platform for further development. In the 1990s and 2000s, Sweden and Switzerland introduced more coordinated and strategic policy incentives for the development of heat pumps. The approaches were flexible and adjusted over time. The policy interventions in both countries supported learning, successful development and diffusion processes, and cost reductions. This assessment of innovation and diffusion policies for heat pump systems can be used to generalise some insights for energy technology innovation policy.
Article
Systemic policy instruments are receiving increased attention among innovation scholars as a means to stimulate sustainability oriented technological innovation. The instruments are called systemic in the expectation that they will improve the functioning of entire (innovation) systems. A first step in designing systemic instruments is an analysis of the systemic problems that hinder the development of a specific technological trajectory. This paper argues that two approaches to studying innovation systems structural and functional analyses—can be combined in a systemic policy framework that helps to first, identify the systemic problems; and second, to suggest the systemic instruments that would address these problems.
Background Report: Innovation Systems and the SET Plan. SET-Nav Project Deliverable D3
  • L Coningsby
  • C Wilson
Coningsby, L. and C. Wilson (2016). Background Report: Innovation Systems and the SET Plan. SET-Nav Project Deliverable D3.1b. Available at: www.set-nav.eu
Comprehensive report "SET-Nav -Comparative assessment and analysis of pathways
  • P Crespo Del Granado
Crespo del Granado P. et. al. (2019). Comprehensive report "SET-Nav -Comparative assessment and analysis of pathways", SET-Nav project, http://set-nav.eu/content/pages/results
Issue Paper on Scenarios of the global fossil fuel markets
  • D Ansari
  • F Holz
Ansari D. and Holz F. (2018). "Issue Paper on Scenarios of the global fossil fuel markets", SET-Nav project, available at: http://set-nav.eu/content/pages/issue-papers