ArticlePDF Available

Bootstrap Methods and Applications

Authors:

Abstract

Given the wealth of literature on the topic supported by solutions to practical problems, we would expect the bootstrap to be an off-the-shelf tool for signal processing problems as are maximum likelihood and least-squares methods. This is not the case, and we wonder why a signal processing practitioner would not resort to the bootstrap for inferential problems. We may attribute the situation to some confusion when the engineer attempts to discover the bootstrap paradigm in an overwhelming body of statistical literature. Our aim is to give a short tutorial of bootstrap methods supported by real-life applications. This pragmatic approach is to serve as a practical guide rather than a comprehensive treatment, which can be found elsewhere. However, for the bootstrap to be successful, we need to identify which resampling scheme is most appropriate.
QUT Digital Repository:
http://eprints.qut.edu.au/
Zoubir, Abdelhak M. and Iskander, D. Robert (2007) Bootstrap Methods and
Applications : A Tutorial for the Signal Processing Practitioner. IEEE - Signal
Processing Magazine 24(4):pp. 10-19.
© Copyright 2007 IEEE
Personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to
reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for
creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or to
reuse any copyrighted component of this work in other works must be obtained
from the IEEE.
IEEE SIGNAL PROCESSING MAGAZINE [10] JULY 2007 1053-5888/07/$25.00©2007IEEE
[
A tutorial for the signal processing practitioner
]
T
his year marks the pearl anniversary of the bootstrap. It has been 30 years since
Bradley Efron’s 1977 Reitz lecture, published two years later in [1]. Today, bootstrap
techniques are available as standard tools in several statistical software packages and
are used to solve problems in a wide range of applications. There have also been sev-
eral monographs written on the topic, such as [2], and several tutorial papers writ-
ten for a nonstatistical readership, including two for signal processing practitioners published
in this magazine [4], [5].
Given the wealth of literature on the topic supported by solutions to practical problems, we
would expect the bootstrap to be an off-the-shelf tool for signal processing problems as are max-
imum likelihood and least-squares methods. This is not the case, and we wonder why a signal
processing practitioner would not resort to the bootstrap for inferential problems.
We may attribute the situation to some confusion when the engineer attempts to discover
the bootstrap paradigm in an overwhelming body of statistical literature. To give an example
and ignoring the two basic approaches of the bootstrap, i.e., the parametric and the nonpara-
metric bootstrap [2], there is not only one bootstrap. Many variants of it exist, such as the small
bootstrap [6], the wild bootstrap [7], the naïve bootstrap (a name often given to the standard
bootstrap resampling technique), the block (or moving block) bootstrap (see the chapter by Liu
and Singh in [8]) and its extended circular block bootstrap version (see the chapter by Politis
and Romano in [8]), and the iterated bootstrap [9]. Then there are derivatives such as the
weighted bootstrap or the threshold bootstrap and some more recently introduced methods
such as bootstrap bagging and bumping. Clearly, this wide spectrum of bootstrap variants may
be a hurdle for newcomers to this area.
[
Abdelhak M. Zoubir and D. Robert Iskander
]
Bootstrap
Methods and
Applications
PROF. DR. KARL HEINRICH HOFMANN
The name bootstrap is often associated with the tale of Baron
von Münchhausen who pulled himself up by the bootstraps from
a sticky situation. This analogy may suggest that the bootstrap is
able to perform the impossible and has resulted sometimes in
unrealistic expectations, especially when dealing with real data.
Often, a signal processing practitioner attempting to use the
basic concepts of the bootstrap is encouraged by his or her early
simulation studies. However, this initial fascination is often fol-
lowed by fading interests in the bootstrap, especially when the
technique did not prove itself with real data. Clearly, the boot-
strap is not a magic technique that provides a panacea for all
statistical inference problems, but it has the power to substitute
tedious and often impossible analytical derivations with compu-
tational calculations [3], [5], [10]. The bootstrap indeed has the
potential to become a standard tool for the engineer. However,
care is required with the use of the bootstrap as there are situa-
tions, discussed later, in which the bootstrap fails [11].
The first question a reader unfamiliar with the topic would
ask is, “what is the bootstrap used for?” In general terms, the
answer would be “the bootstrap is a computational tool for sta-
tistical inference.” Specifically, we could list the following
tasks: estimation of statistical characteristics such as bias, vari-
ance, distribution functions and thus confidence intervals, and
more specifically, hypothesis tests (for example for signal
detection), and model selection. The following question may
arise subsequently, “when can I use the bootstrap?” A short
answer to this is, “when I know little about the statistics of the
data or I have only a small amount of data so that I cannot use
asymptotic results.”
Our aim is to give a short tutorial of bootstrap methods sup-
ported by real-life applications so as to substantiate the answers
to the questions raised above. This pragmatic
approach is to serve as a practical guide rather than a
comprehensive treatment, which can be found else-
where; see for example [2]–[5].
THE BOOTSTRAP PRINCIPLE
Suppose that we have measurements collected in
x ={x
1
, x
2
,... ,x
n
}
, which are realizations of the
random sample
X ={X
1
, X
2
,... ,X
n
}
, drawn from
some unspecified distribution
F
X
. Let
ˆ
θ =
ˆ
θ(X)
be an
estimator of some parameter
θ
of
F
X
, which could be,
for example, the mean
θ = µ
X
of
F
X
estimated by the
sample mean
ˆ
θ µ
X
= 1/n
n
i=1
X
i
. The aim is to
find characteristics of
ˆ
θ
such as the distribution of
ˆ
θ
.
Sometimes, the parameter estimator
ˆ
θ
is computed
from a collection of
n
independently and identically
distributed (i.i.d.) data
X
1
, X
2
,... ,X
n
. If the distri-
bution function
F
X
is known or is assumed to be
known and given that the function
ˆ
θ(X)
is relatively
simple, then it is possible to exactly evaluate the dis-
tribution of the parameter estimator
ˆ
θ
. Textbook
examples of this situation are the derivations of the
distribution functions of the sample mean
ˆµ
X
and its
variance when the data is Gaussian.
In many practical applications, either the distribution
F
X
is
unknown or the parameter estimator
ˆ
θ(X)
is too complicated for
its distribution to be derived in a closed form. The question is
then how to perform statistical inference. Specifically, we wish to
answer the following question: how reliable is the parameter esti-
mator
ˆ
θ
? How could we, for example, test that the parameter
θ
is
significantly different from some nominal value (hypothesis test)?
Clearly, we could use asymptotic arguments and approximate the
distribution of
ˆ
θ
. In the case of the sample mean
ˆµ
X
above, we
would apply the central limit theorem and assume that the distri-
bution of
ˆµ
X
is Gaussian. This would lead to answering inferen-
tial questions. But how would we proceed if the central limit
theorem does not apply because
n
is small and we cannot repeat
the experiment? The bootstrap is the answer to our question. Its
paradigm suggests substitution of the unknown distribution
F
X
by the empirical distribution of the data,
ˆ
F
X
. Practically, it means
that we reuse our original data through resampling to create what
we call a bootstrap sample. The bootstrap sample has the same
size as the original sample, i.e.,
x
b
={x
1
, x
2
,... ,x
n
}
for
b = 1, 2,... ,B
, where
x
i
,
i = 1, 2,... ,n
are obtained, for
example, by drawing at random with replacement from
x
. The
simplest form of resampling is pictured in Figure 1. Each of the
bootstrap samples in the figure is considered as new data. Based
on the bootstrap sample
x
b
, bootstrap parameter estimates
ˆ
θ
b
=
ˆ
θ(x
b
)
for
b = 1,... ,B
are calculated. Given a large num-
ber
B
of bootstrap parameter estimates, we can then approximate
the distribution of
ˆ
θ
by the distribution of
ˆ
θ
, which is derived
from the bootstrap sample
x
, i.e., we approximate the distribu-
tion
F
ˆ
θ
of
ˆ
θ
by
ˆ
F
ˆ
θ
, the distribution of
ˆ
θ
.
From a practical point of view, a limitation of the bootstrap
may appear to be the i.i.d. data assumption, but we will show
[FIG1] The independent data bootstrap resampling principle.
. . .
Original Data
x
(6 Colors)
Bootstrap Sample
x
1
*
Bootstrap Sample
x
B
*Bootstrap Sample
x
2
*
(< 6 Colors)
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
(< 6 Colors)(< 6 Colors)
IEEE SIGNAL PROCESSING MAGAZINE [11] JULY 2007
later how this assumption can be relaxed. There are, however,
several other technical points that need to be addressed. The
sample length
n
is also of great importance. Bootstrap methods
have been promoted as methods for small sample sizes when
asymptotic assumptions may not hold. However, as with any sta-
tistical problem, the sample size will influence the results in
practice. The number of bootstrap samples
B
necessary to esti-
mate the distribution of a parameter estimator has also been
discussed in the statistical literature [12]. One rule of thumb is
for the number of bootstrap samples
B
to take a value between
25 and 50 for variance estimation and to be set to about 1,000
where a 95% confidence interval is sought. However, with the
fast increasing computational power, there are no objections to
exceeding these numbers.
Note that the bootstrap simulation error, which quantifies
the difference between the true distribution and the estimated
distribution, comprises two independent errors of different
sources, i.e., a bootstrap (statistical) error and a simulation
(Monte Carlo) error. The first error is unavoidable and does not
depend on the number of bootstrap samples
B
but on the size
n
of the original sample. The second one can be minimized by
increasing the number of bootstrap samples. The aim is there-
fore to choose
B
so that the simulation error is no larger than
the bootstrap error. For a large sample size
n
, we would reduce
the number of samples
B
to reduce computations. However,
the larger the size
n
of the original data, the smaller the boot-
strap error. Thus, a larger number of bootstrap samples is
required for the simulation error to be smaller than the boot-
strap error. We found that the rule of thumb of choosing
B = 40n
, proposed by Davison and Hinkley [13], is appropriate
in many applications. If desired, a method called jackknife-
after-bootstrap [14] can be used to assess the contribution of
each of these errors (i.e., bootstrap error versus Monte Carlo
error). In practice, the value of
B
is application dependent and
is left to the experimenter to choose.
The assumption of the original data being a good representa-
tion of the unknown population is not well articulated in the
statistical literature. However, it is quite intuitive to a signal
processing practitioner who is familiar with the jargon garbage
in
garbage out. The issue essentially concerns the allowed
number of outliers contained in the original data sample for the
bootstrap to work because when we resample with replacement,
it is likely that we produce bootstrap samples with significantly
higher numbers of outliers than the original sample. The issue
of a good original sample is closely related to that of sample size.
Many success stories have been reported by both statisticians
and engineers, while little is shown on bootstrap failures. Cases
indeed exist where bootstrap procedures fail no matter how
good the original sample is and no matter how large
n
is. A clas-
sical example of bootstrap failure is when we apply the inde-
pendent data bootstrap to find the distribution of the maximum
(or the minimum) of a random sample. Another example is
when the mean of a random variable with infinite variance (e.g.,
from the family of
α
-stable distributions) is of interest. This
implies that standard bootstrap techniques may produce uncon-
trolled results for heavy-tailed distributions. See the work of
Mammen [15] for more details.
A promising method that has been reported to work when
the conventional independent data bootstrap fails is subsam-
pling. Note that subsampling has been developed as a method
for resampling dependent data under minimal assumptions and
is based on drawing at random subsamples of consecutive obser-
vations of length less than the original data size
n
. See the book
by Politis et al. [16] for more details.
AN IMAGE PROCESSING EXAMPLE
We consider an example of fitting a circle to a set of two-dimen-
sional (2-D) data. This is common in many image processing
and pattern recognition applications. The application we consid-
er is to fit functions to the outlines of the pupil and limbus (iris
outline) in eye images [17]. The performance of automatic pro-
cedures for extracting these features can be evaluated with syn-
thetic images. However, for real images and particularly for the
limbus, these procedures need to be benchmarked against man-
ual operators assisted with computer-based procedures for point
selection. An operator is asked to select a small number of
points
(x
i
, y
i
)
,
i = 1, 2,... ,n
, where
x
i
and
y
i
denote the hori-
zontal and vertical point position (see the eight yellow crosses in
Figure 2).
A linear least-squares procedure can be applied to fit a circle,
modeled by the equation
x
2
+ y
2
+ 2xx
0
+ 2yy
0
+ x
2
0
+
y
2
0
R
2
= 0
, to the data
(x
i
, y
i
)
,
i = 1, 2,... ,n
, so that
x
2
1
+ y
2
1
.
.
.
x
2
n
+ y
2
n
=
2x
1
2y
1
1
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
2x
n
2y
n
1
·
p
1
p
2
p
3
+
ε
1
.
.
.
ε
n
,
IEEE SIGNAL PROCESSING MAGAZINE [12] JULY 2007
[FIG2] Typical example of a slit lamp image of an eye
with manually selected points (yellow crosses) around the
limbus area.
IEEE SIGNAL PROCESSING MAGAZINE [13] JULY 2007
where
p
1
= x
0
,
p
2
= y
0
,
p
3
= x
2
0
+ y
2
0
R
2
and
ε
i
,
i = 1, 2,... ,n
, is the modeling error.
The above equation can be rewritten in the form
Y = X · P + E
, for which an estimator for
P
is easily derived,
i.e.,
ˆ
P = (X
T
X)
1
X
T
Y
.
The question of interest is how well an operator can fit a cir-
cle to the limbus. One way of assessing the parameter estimator
would be to select eight data point pairs (considered in our
example) 1,000 times. Although feasible, this task is laborious,
and the results would most definitely be affected by the subse-
quently decreasing commitment of the operator. The alternative
is to use the bootstrap. Clearly, the selected data points
(x
i
, y
i
)
,
i = 1, 2,... ,n
, are not i.i.d, unlike the modeling errors
ε
i
, i = 1,... ,n
, collected in the random sample
ε ={ε
1
2
,...
n
}
, which can be assumed to be i.i.d. Our
bootstrap procedure is described in Table 1.
An example of the distribution (histogram) of the limbus
radius obtained with the bootstrap method is shown in Figure 3.
Clearly, the bootstrap is capable of providing answers, substitut-
ing the tedious manual labor that would have been required to
complete this task. In the above example, we used the bootstrap
to find the distribution of the limbus radius estimator. This is
not the only question of interest in this application. The boot-
strap can also be used to estimate the existing bias when fitting
the data to ellipses [18], or it can be used for testing whether the
limbus or pupil parameters are different from the left to the
right eye in anisometropic subjects.
BOOTSTRAP TECHNIQUES FOR DEPENDENT DATA
The assumption that the data is i.i.d. is not always valid. Here we
provide some insight as to how to resample dependent data.
Note that if the data was i.i.d., standard bootstrap resampling
with replacement gives an accurate representation of the under-
lying distribution. However, if the data shows heteroskedasticity
(the random variables in the sequence or vector may have differ-
ent variances) or serial correlation, randomly resampled data
would lead to errors.
One way to extend the basic bootstrap principle to dependent
data is the previously mentioned concept of data modeling and
the subsequent assumption of i.i.d. residuals that approximate
the modeling and measurement errors.
There have been a variety of bootstrap methods developed for
dependent data models such as autoregressive (AR) and moving
average models (see [19] and references therein), and Markov
chain models (see the chapter by Athreya and Fuh in [8]), in
which the concept of i.i.d. residuals has been used. In analogy to
the linearization of a nonlinear problem, the idea here is to
reformulate the problem so that the i.i.d. component of the data
may be used for resampling. In most cases, the procedure fol-
lows the structure described in Table 2.
We used the above procedure in many signal processing
problems, including those related to higher-order statistics and
nonstationary signals with polynomial phase [3]. In some cases,
the residuals in Step 2 of the above procedure can be found as a
ratio of two parameter estimators. For example, in power spec-
trum density estimation [20], the ratios between the peri-
odogram and the kernel spectrum density estimator at distinct
frequency bins are assumed to be i.i.d. Note, however, that we
could not use the same concept for the bispectrum [3]. We also
note the approach taken by the authors in some real-life applica-
tions where the asymptotic independence of the finite Fourier
transform at distinct frequencies was explored so that sampling
could be undertaken in the frequency domain [3].
As an example, we describe below the principle of bootstrap
resampling for AR models. Given
n
observations
x
t
,
t = 1,...,n
, of an AR process of order
p
and coefficients
a
k
,
[FIG3] Histogram of
ˆ
R
1
,
ˆ
R
2
,... ,
ˆ
R
1,000
based on the eight
manually selected limbus points.
5.92 5.94 5.96 5.98 6 6.02 6.04 6.06
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Bootstrap Estimates of Limbus Radius (mm)
Frequency of Occurrence
STEP 1) ESTIMATE THE THREE PARAMETERS OF THE CIRCLE
x
0
, y
0
, AND
R
,
COLLECTED IN
ˆ
PPP
AND CONSTRUCT AN ESTIMATE OF THE CIRCLE
USING
ˆ
YYY = XXX ·
ˆ
PPP
.
STEP 2) CALCULATE THE RESIDUALS
ˆ
EEE = YYY
ˆ
YYY
.
STEP 3) SINCE WE HAVE ASSUMED THAT THE RESIDUALS
ˆ
EEE
ARE I.I.D., WE
CREATE A SET OF BOOTSTRAP RESIDUALS
ˆ
EEE
BY RESAMPLING WITH
REPLACEMENT FROM
ˆ
EEE
. NOTE THAT THE RESIDUALS NEED TO BE
CENTERED (DETRENDED) BEFORE RESAMPLING.
STEP 4) CREATE A NEW ESTIMATE OF THE CIRCLE BY ADDING THE BOOT-
STRAPPED RESIDUALS TO THE ESTIMATE, OBTAINED FROM THE
ORIGINAL DATA
YYY
IN STEP 1, I.E.,
ˆ
YYY
= XXX ·
ˆ
PPP +
ˆ
EEE
.
STEP 5) ESTIMATE A NEW SET OF PARAMETERS FROM THE NEWLY CREATED
BOOTSTRAP SAMPLE
ˆ
PPP
= (XXX
T
XXX)
1
XXX
T
ˆ
YYY
.
STEP 6) REPEAT STEPS 3–5
B
TIMES TO OBTAIN A SET OF
ˆ
PPP
1
,
ˆ
PPP
2
,... ,
ˆ
PPP
B
,
FROM WHICH EMPIRICAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF THE CONSIDERED
PARAMETER ESTIMATORS CAN BE OBTAINED.
[TABLE 1] BOOTSTRAP PROCEDURE FOR THE ESTIMATION
OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF
ˆ
PPP
.
STEP 1) FIT A MODEL TO THE DATA.
STEP 2) SUBTRACT THE FITTED MODEL FROM THE ORIGINAL DATA TO
OBTAIN RESIDUALS.
STEP 3) CENTER (OR RESCALE) THE RESIDUALS.
STEP 4) RESAMPLE THE RESIDUALS.
STEP 5) CREATE NEW BOOTSTRAP DATA BY ADDING THE RESAMPLED
RESIDUALS TO THE FITTED MODEL FROM STEP 1.
STEP 6) FIT THE MODEL TO THE NEW BOOTSTRAP DATA.
STEP 7) REPEAT STEPS 4–6 MANY TIMES TO OBTAIN DISTRIBUTIONS FOR
THE MODEL PARAMETER ESTIMATORS.
[TABLE 2] RESIDUAL-BASED BOOTSTRAP PROCEDURE
FOR DEPENDENT DATA.
k = 1,... , p
, we would proceed as summarized in Table 3 to
create bootstrap parameter estimates so as to estimate the dis-
tribution functions of the parameter estimators, based on the
original data [3].
The bootstrap estimates
ˆ
a
b
1
,...,
ˆ
a
b
p
for
b = 1,...,B
are
used to estimate the distributions of
ˆ
a
1
,...,
ˆ
a
p
or their statisti-
cal measures such as means, variances, or confidence intervals.
Practical examples of the above procedure are shown in what
follows in the context of hands-free telephony and micro-
Doppler radar.
AN EXAMPLE FOR HANDS-FREE TELEPHONY
Hands-free communication in cars can be severely disturbed by
car noise. To ensure understandability, noise-reduction algo-
rithms are necessary. These are usually assessed by listening to
estimated speech samples. However, a quantitative assessment
seems to be a more objective approach. In this example, we pro-
pose to assess the confidence intervals of the parameters of an
AR model used to represent the recovered speech signal to ulti-
mately compare them with those of the AR parameters corre-
sponding to the original signal. A bootstrap approach is
suggested due to the complicated nature of the signals and their
statistical properties.
The single-channel recorded signal
x (t )
is described as a
mixture of a clear speech signal
s(t )
and car noise
n(t )
. The
noise reduction approach we use here, proposed in [21],
assumes both speech and car noise to be AR processes contami-
nated by white noise. The algorithm uses subband AR modeling
and Kalman filtering to find a noise-reduced estimate
ˆs (t )
of
the clear speech signal
s(t )
, as shown in Figure 4.
An overview of the noise-reduction algorithm is as follows
(details can be found in [21]):
To obtain small AR model orders, the signal is split into 16
subbands with an undersampling rate of 12. The AR model
orders used are 4–6 for clear speech and 2 for car noise.
Signal segments with 48 ms duration are considered to be
quasistationary.
The block “AR Model Estimation” in Figure 4 can be
roughly described as follows.
If only noise is present, the noise spectrum is measured
by means of a smoothed periodogram.
—If voice activity is detected, the current noise spectrum is
held fixed and is subtracted from the disturbed speech spec-
trum, to obtain an estimate of the speech only spectrum.
AR parameter and input power estimation is performed
for both noise and speech separately.
A single-channel speech signal was used. The recording was
the German sentence: “Johann Philipp Reis führte es am 26.
Oktober 1861, erstmals in Frankfurt am Main, vor und nutzte
dazu als einen der ersten Testsätze: ‘Pferde fressen keinen
Gurkensalat.’” A quasistationary segment of this recording is
then chosen corresponding to the vocal part of “Reis.” This sig-
nal segment, sampled at 8 kHz is shown in Figure 5(a). After
estimating the model order to be 11, by means of the minimum
description length (MDL) information theoretic criterion, we
estimate the AR parameters and use the bootstrap to find their
distributions as described in Table 3.
Figure 5(b) shows the residuals, obtained by inverse filtering
of the signal with the estimated parameters of the AR model
from the recovered speech signal
ˆs (t )
. The residuals are close to
white, as can be inferred from the covariance function of the
residuals shown in Figure 5(c).
A quality assessment of a noise-reduction algorithm
should give a measure of how well
ˆs (t )
estimates
s(t )
, or how
close
ˆs (t )
is to
s(t )
in a statistically meaningful way. This
could be done based on the bootstrap distributions of the AR
parameter estimates of
s(t )
and
ˆs (t )
. We use 90% confidence
intervals of the AR parameters based on the estimated values
to assess how close the original (clear speech) and the noise-
reduced signals are. Figure 5(d) shows the bootstrap 90%
confidence intervals for the 11 AR parameters of the noise-
reduced signal
ˆs (t )
along with the estimated AR parameters
of
ˆs (t )
(black crosses) and the estimated AR parameters of
s(t )
(red diamonds). The confidence intervals for the fitted AR
parameters to the original speech signal
s(t )
(not shown in the figure) are in
close agreement with the confidence
intervals shown in Figure 5(d).
From this example, we can deduce that
the bootstrap can be used to assess the
quality of the noise-reducing algorithm
using approximate confidence bounds. As
an alternative to the common practice of
listening to both the original speech and
the noise reduced speech to assess clarity,
the confidence bounds of their respective
AR parameters are compared.
[FIG4] Noise reduction algorithm using subband AR modeling and Kalman filtering.
Synthesis Filterbank
Kalman-
Filter
AR Model
Estimation
Analysis Filterbank
s
(
t
)
x
(
t
)
n
(
t
)
. . .
. . .
s
(
t
)
. . .
^
IEEE SIGNAL PROCESSING MAGAZINE [14] JULY 2007
STEP 1) WITH THE ESTIMATES
ˆa
k
OF
a
k
FOR
k = 1,..., p
(OBTAINED BY
SOLVING THE YULE-WALKER EQUATIONS), CALCULATE THE
RESIDUALS AS
ˆz
t
= x
t
+
p
k=1
ˆa
k
x
tk
FOR
t = p + 1,...,n
.
STEP 2) CREATE A BOOTSTRAP SAMPLE
x
1
,...,x
n
BY DRAWING
ˆz
p+1
,...,ˆz
n
, WITH REPLACEMENT FROM THE RESIDUALS
ˆz
p+1
,...,ˆz
n
, THEN LETTING
x
t
= x
t
FOR
t = 1,...,p
AND
x
t
=−
p
k=1
ˆa
k
x
tk
z
t
FOR
t = p + 1,...,n
.
STEP 3) OBTAIN BOOTSTRAP ESTIMATES
ˆa
1
,..., ˆa
p
FROM
x
1
,...,x
n
.
STEP 4) REPEAT STEPS 2-3
B
TIMES TO OBTAIN
ˆa
b
1
,..., ˆa
b
p
FOR
b = 1,...,B
.
[TABLE 3] BOOTSTRAP RESAMPLING FOR AR MODELS.
ALTERNATIVE DEPENDENT DATA
BOOTSTRAP METHODS
Several questions may be asked at
this stage: how can one bootstrap
non-i.i.d. data without imposing a
parametric model? Can one resample
the data nonparametrically? First
answers to these questions have been
provided by Künsch [22], who introduced the concept of resam-
pling sequences (chunks) of data. The method is referred to as the
moving block bootstrap. In essence, rather than resampling with
replacement single data points, sets of consecutive points are
resampled to maintain, in a nonparametric fashion, the structure
between neighboring data points. The segments chosen for boot-
strapping can be either nonoverlapping or overlapping. To illus-
trate this concept, we use a sequence of Iskander’s eye aberration
data measured by a Hartmann-Shack sensor [23]. The data is
sampled at approximately 11 Hz and is composed of 128 data
points. We divide the sequence into nonoverlapping blocks of 16
samples each, as illustrated in the top panel of Figure 6. The
blocks are then resampled to obtain the bottom panel of Figure 6.
We note that the resampling of
blocks of data is based on the
assumption that the blocks are i.i.d.
This is the case when the data rep-
resents a process that is strong mix-
ing. This means, loosely speaking,
that the resampling scheme
assumes that the data points that
are far apart are nearly independent.
If the data are to be divided into segments, the length of each
segment as well as the amount of overlap may become an issue.
Although automatic procedures for selecting these parameters
have been developed [24], in many practical situations, the
dependence structure of the sample may still need to be estimat-
ed or at least examined. The problem may become even more
complicated if the original data is nonstationary. There are
reported cases where moving block bootstrap techniques show a
certain degree of robustness for nonstationary data (see the chap-
ter by Lahiri in [8]). On the other hand, it is not guaranteed that
the moving block bootstrap estimates from a stationary process
would themselves result in stationary processes. This somewhat
[FIG5] Results of the speech signal analysis experiment. (a) The original signal
s(t)
corresponding to the vocal part of “Reis” and its
noise-reduced version
ˆ
s(t)
. (b) The estimated residuals and (c) their covariance structure. (d) The Estimated coefficients of the AR(11)
model and 90% confidence intervals.
50 100 150 200 250
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Samples
Magnitude
Clear Speech
Noise-Removed
(a)
50 100 150 200 250
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Samples
Residuals
(b)
(c)
150 100 50 0 50 100 150
0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Lag
Covariance Value
0246810
1.5
1
0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
Order
Parameter Value
Noise-Removed
Clear Speech
(d)
IEEE SIGNAL PROCESSING MAGAZINE [15] JULY 2007
THE BOOTSTRAP HAS THE POWER
TO SUBSTITUTE TEDIOUS AND
OFTEN IMPOSSIBLE ANALYTICAL
DERIVATIONS WITH
COMPUTATIONAL CALCULATIONS.
worrying observation of nonpreser-
vation of stationarity has been
reported in [25]. A resampling
scheme in which the length of each
block is randomly chosen (the so-
called stationary bootstrap) provides
a solution to this problem [26]. See
the paper by Politis [27] for some
recent dependent data bootstrap
techniques.
The observations made above
show that the very appealing simplici-
ty of the standard bootstrap resam-
pling technique is somehow lost in
the dependent data bootstrap meth-
ods. Also, the amount of evidence
supporting the empirical validity of
those procedures is still limited. This
leads to an unpopular conclusion that
the bootstrap novice should attempt a
model-based approach when dealing
with non-i.i.d. data, especially when
only limited knowledge of the data
dependence structure is available.
Nevertheless, there are practical cases
in which a model-based approach
combined with dependent data boot-
strap is powerful.
We now close our dependent data bootstrap treatment with
an example from radar.
MICRO-DOPPLER ANALYSIS
The Doppler phenomenon often arises in engineering applica-
tions where radar, ladar, sonar, and ultra-sound measurements
are made. This may be due to the relative motion of an object
with respect to the measurement system. If the motion is har-
monic, for example due to vibration or rotation, the resulting
signal can be well modeled by a frequency modulated (FM) signal
[28]. Estimation of the FM parameters may allow us to deter-
mine physical properties such as the angular velocity and dis-
placement of the vibrational/rotational motion which can in turn
be used for classification. The objectives are to estimate the
micro-Doppler parameters along with a measure of accuracy,
such as confidence intervals.
Assume the following amplitude modulation (AM)-FM signal
model:
s(t) = a(t) exp{ jϕ(t)},(1)
where the AM is described by a polynomial:
a(t; ααα) =
q
k=0
α
k
t
k
and
ααα =
0
,...
q
)
are the termed AM parameters. The phase
modulation for a micro-Doppler signal is described by a sinusoidal
function:
ϕ(t) =−D
m
cos
m
t + φ)
.
The instantaneous angular frequency (IF) of the signals is
defined by
ω(t; βββ)
dϕ(t)
dt
= Dsin
m
t + φ), (2)
where
βββ = (D
m
)
are termed the FM or micro-Doppler
parameters.
The micro-Doppler signal in (1) is buried in additive noise so
that the observation process is described by
X(t) = s(t) + V(t)
,
where
V(t)
is assumed to be a colored noise process. Given obser-
vations
{x(k)}
n
k=1
of
X(t)
, the goal is to estimate the micro-
Doppler parameters in
βββ
as well as their confidence intervals.
The estimation of the phase parameters is performed using a
time-frequency Hough transform (TFHT) [29], [30]. The TFHT
we use is given by
Hββ) =
n(L1)/2+1
k=−(L1)/2
P
xx
[k
i
(n; βββ)),
where
ω(tββ)
is described in (2), and
P
xx
[k
i
(n; βββ))
is the
pseudo-Wigner-Ville (PWVD) distribution, defined as
P
xx
[k)=
(L1)/2
l=−(L1)/2
h[k]x[k + l]x
[k l]e
j 2ω
,(3)
for
k =−(L 1)/2,... ,n (L 1)/2
, where
h[k]
is a win-
dowing function of duration L. An estimate of
βββ
is obtained
from the location of the largest peak of
Hββ)
, i.e.,
ˆ
βββ = arg max
βββ
Hββ)
. Once the phase parameters have been
[FIG6] An example of the principle of moving block bootstrap. (a) Original data and (b) block
bootstrapped data. Note that some blocks from the original data appear more than once and
some do not appear at all in the bootstrapped data.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
Time (s)
(a)
(b)
Residual Dynamics
in Defocus (µm)
Block 1 Block 2 Block 3 Block 4 Block 5 Block 6 Block 7 Block 8
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
Time (s)
Moving-Block
Boostrap Sample
Block 5 Block 6 Block 3 Block 7 Block 5 Block 3 Block 6
Block 5
IEEE SIGNAL PROCESSING MAGAZINE [16] JULY 2007
estimated, the phase term is demodulated and the amplitude
parameters
α
0
,...
q
are estimated via linear least-squares.
We now turn our attention to the estimation of confidence
intervals for
D
and
ω
m
using the bootstrap. Given estimates for
ααα
and
βββ
, the residuals are obtained by subtracting the estimat-
ed signal from the observations. The resulting residuals are not
i.i.d., and a dependent data bootstrap would seem a natural
choice. Due to some difficulties with a dependent data boot-
strap approach with real data, we chose to whiten the residuals
by estimating parameters of a fitted AR model. The innovations
are then resampled, filtered, and added to the estimated signal
term to obtain bootstrap versions of the data, as discussed pre-
viously. By reestimating the parameters many times from the
bootstrap data, we are then able to obtain confidence intervals
for the parameters of interest. This is demonstrated using
experimental data.
The results shown here are based on an experimental radar
system, operating at carrier frequency
f
c
= 919.82
MHz. After
demodulation, the in-phase and quadrature baseband channels
are sampled at
f
s
= 1
kHz. The radar system is directed towards
a spherical object, swinging with a pendulum motion, which
results in a typical micro-Doppler signature. The PWVD of the
observations is computed according to (3) and shown in Figure
7(a). The sinusoidal frequency modulation is clearly observed.
[FIG7] (a) The PWVD of the radar data. (b) The PWVD of the radar data and the micro-Doppler signature estimated using the TFHT. (c)
The real and imaginary components of the radar signal with their estimated counterparts. (d) The real and imaginary parts of the
residuals and their spectral estimates.
Time (s)
Frequency (Hz)
PWVD of the Radar Data
0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45
250
200
150
100
50
0
50
100
150
200
(a)
Time (s)
Frequency (Hz)
PWVD of the Radar Data
0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45
250
200
150
100
50
0
50
100
150
200
(b)
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5
0.04
0.02
0
0.02
0.04
Time (s)
Amplitude (V)
Imaginary (Quadrature) Component
Data
AM-FM Fit
(c)
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45
0.04
0.02
0
0.02
0.04
Time (s)
Amplitude (V)
Real (In-Phase) Component
Data
AMFM Fit
0.5
(d)
Amplitude (V)
00.05
0.1
0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5
0.015
0.01
0.005
0
0.005
0.01
Time (s)
Time-Domain Waveform of Residuals
Re{
r
(
n
)}
Im{
r
(
n
)}
500
400
300
200
100 0 100 200 300 400 500
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
f (Hz)
Power (dBW)
Estimated Spectrum of Residuals
Periodogram
AR Fit
IEEE SIGNAL PROCESSING MAGAZINE [17] JULY 2007
Using the TFHT, we estimate the micro-Doppler signature as
discussed above and plot it over the PWVD in Figure 7(b). The
AM parameters of the signal are then estimated. The radar data
and the estimated AM-FM signal term are shown in Figure 7(c),
while the residuals obtained by subtracting the estimated signal
from the data are shown in Figure 7(d) together with their peri-
odogram and AR-based spectral estimates. The model appears to
fit the data well, and coloration of the noise seems to be well
approximated using an AR model.
After applying the bootstrap with
B = 500
, the estimated dis-
tribution of the micro-Doppler parameters and the 95% confi-
dence intervals for
D
and
ω
m
are obtained and shown in Figure 8.
This example shows that the bootstrap is a
solution to finding distribution estimates for
ˆ
D
and
ˆω
m
, a task that would be tedious or
even impossible to achieve analytically.
GUIDELINES FOR USING THE BOOTSTRAP
Let us summarize the main points from our
discussion. Is it really possible to use the
bootstrap to extricate oneself from a difficult
situation as anecdotally Baron von
Münchhausen did? There are many dictionary
definitions of the word bootstrap. The one we
would like to bring to the readers’ attention
is: “to change the state using existing
resources.” With this definition, the answer to
our question is affirmative. Yes, it is possible
to change our state of knowledge (e.g., the
knowledge of the distribution of parameter
estimators) based on what we have at hand,
usually a single observation of the process.
However, for the bootstrap to be successful, we need to identify
which resampling scheme is most appropriate. The initial deci-
sion must be based on the examination of the data and the prob-
lem at hand. If the data can be assumed to be i.i.d. (the unlikely
scenario in real world problems, but useful in simulation studies),
standard bootstrap resampling techniques such as the independ-
ent data bootstrap can be used. Should the data be non-i.i.d., we
should consider first a parametric approach in which a specific
structure is assumed (see Figure 9). If this can be done, we can
reduce the seemingly difficult problem of dependent data boot-
strap to standard resampling of the assumed i.i.d. model error
estimates (residuals). If a model for the data structure cannot be
IEEE SIGNAL PROCESSING MAGAZINE [18] JULY 2007
[FIG8] The bootstrap distributions and 95% confidence intervals for the FM parameters (a)
D
and (b)
ω
m
.
71.7 71.8 71.9 72 72.1 72.2 72.3
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
D/(2π) (Hz)
Boostrap Confidence Interval for D
Bootstrap Dist.
Initial Estimate
95% CI
(a)
3.037 3.038 3.039 3.04 3.041 3.042 3.043 3.044 3.045 3.046
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
ω
m
/(2π) (Hz)
Boostrap Confidence Interval for ω
m
Bootstrap Dist.
Initial Estimate
95% CI
(b)
[FIG9] A practical strategy for bootstrapping data.
Original Data
Data i.i.d.?
Yes
Yes
No
No
Model OK?
Data Dependent
Bootstrap Resampling
Calculate
Residuals
Standard Bootstrap
Resampling Techniques
found, the matter is much more deli-
cate. This is because existing non-
parametric bootstrap schemes for
dealing with dependent data have not
been sufficiently validated as an auto-
matic approach for real-life depend-
ent data problems that a signal
processing engineer may encounter.
As we mentioned earlier, a signal
processing practitioner always
attempts to simplify their work. A
nonlinear problem can be either transformed or reduced to a set
of linear problems, and a nonstationary signal can be segmented
to assume local stationarity. Similarly, bootstrap techniques for
real-world data that are often not i.i.d. and nonstationary can be
reduced to standard resampling techniques. This is the approach
we have taken and the one we advocate. With this approach, the
bootstrap may prove itself as an off-the-shelf tool for practical
signal processing problems.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We wish to thank Philipp Heidenreich and Alex Kaps for their
assistance with the speech example and Luke Cirillo for his con-
tribution to the micro-Doppler data example. The micro-
Doppler data was kindly provided by Prof. M.G. Amin from
Villanova University, Pennsylvania, who also has our gratitude.
We are grateful for helpful comments from Prof. D.N. Politis.
Abdelhak Zoubir thanks his colleague Eberhard Hänsler for the
fruitful discussions.
AUTHORS
Abdelhak M. Zoubir (zoubir@ieee.org) received his Dr.-Ing. from
Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Germany. He was with Queensland
University of Technology, Australia from 1992 until 1999, when he
moved to Curtin University of Technology, Australia as Professor of
Telecommunications. In 2003, he joined Technische Universität
Darmstadt, Germany as professor and head of the Signal
Processing Group. His research interest lies in statistical methods
for signal processing with emphasis on bootstrap techniques,
robust detection and estimation applied to telecommunications,
car engine monitoring, and biomedicine. He authored or coau-
thored more than 200 papers and the book Bootstrap Techniques
for Signal Processing, Cambridge University Press, 2004.
D. Robert Iskander (d.iskander@qut.edu.au) received his
Ph.D. degree in signal processing from Queensland University of
Technology (QUT), Australia, in 1997. In 1996–2000 he was a
research fellow at Signal Processing Research Centre,
Cooperative Research Centre for Satellite Systems, and Centre
for Eye Research, QUT, Australia. In 2001, he joined the School
of Engineering, Griffith University as a senior lecturer. From
2003, he returned to QUT as a Principal Research Fellow. His
current research interests include statistical signal processing,
biomedical engineering, and visual optics. He has authored or
coauthored more than 100 papers and is a coinventor on seven
international patents.
REFERENCES
[1] B. Efron, “Bootstrap methods: Another look
at the jackknife,” Ann. Statist., vol. 7, no. 1, pp.
1–26, 1979.
[2] B. Efron and R.J. Tibshirani, An
Introduction to the Bootstrap. London, U.K.:
Chapman & Hall, 1993.
[3] A.M. Zoubir and D.R. Iskander, Bootstrap
Techniques for Signal Processing. Cambridge,
U.K: Cambridge Univ. Press, 2004.
[4] D.N. Politis, “Computer-intensive methods
in statistical analysis,” IEEE Signal Processing
Mag., vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 39–55, 1998.
[5] A.M. Zoubir and B. Boashash, “The boot-
strap and its application in signal processing,”
IEEE Signal Processing Mag., vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 56–76, 1998.
[6] L. Breiman, “The little bootstrap and other methods for dimensionality
selection in regression,” J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., vol. 87, no. 419, pp. 738–754, 1992.
[7] R.Y. Liu, “Bootstrap procedure under some non-i.i.d. models,” Ann. Statist.,
vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 1696–1708, 1988.
[8] R. LePage and L. Billard, Eds. Exploring the Limits of Bootstrap. New York:
Wiley, 1992.
[9] J.G. Booth and P. Hall, “Monte Carlo approximation and the iterated bootstrap,”
Biometrika, vol. 81, no. 2, pp. 331–340, 1994.
[10] A.M. Zoubir, The bootstrap: A powerful tool for statistical signal processing
with small sample sets, ICASSP-99 Tutorial [Online]. Available: http://www.spg.
tu-darmstadt.de/downloads/bootstrap tutorial.html
[11] G.A. Young, “Bootstrap: More than a stab in the dark?,” Stat. Sci., vol. 9, no. 3,
pp. 382–415, 1994.
[12] D.W.K. Andrews and M. Buchinsky, “A three-step method for choosing the
number of bootstrap repetitions,” Econometrica, vol. 68, no. 1, pp. 23–51, 2000.
[13] A.C. Davison and D.V. Hinkley, Bootstrap Methods and their Applications.
Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge Univ. Press, , 1997.
[14] B. Efron, “Jackknife-after-bootstrap standard errors and in uence functions,”
J. Royal Statistical Soc., B, vol. 54, no. 1, pp. 83–127, 1992.
[15] E. Mammen, When Does Bootstrap Work? Asymptotic Results and
Simulations (Lecture Notes in Statistics, vol. 77). New York: Springer-Verlag, 1992.
[16] D.N. Politis, J.P. Romano, and M. Wolf, Subsampling. New York: Springer-
Verlag, 1999.
[17] D.R. Iskander, M.J. Collins, S. Mioschek, and M. Trunk, “Automatic pupillome-
try from digital images,” IEEE Trans. Biomed. Eng., vol. 51, no. 9, pp. 1619–1627,
2004.
[18] J. Cabrera and P. Meer, “Unbiased estimation of ellipses by bootstrapping,”
IEEE Trans Pattern Anal. Machine Intell., vol. 18, no. 7, pp. 752–756, 1996.
[19] J. Shao and D. Tu, The Jackknife and Bootstrap. New York: Springer-Verlag,
1995.
[20] J. Franke and W. Härdle, “On bootstrapping kernel spectral estimates,” Ann.
Statist., vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 121–145, 1992.
[21] H. Puder, “Noise reduction with Kalman-filters for hands-free car phones
based on parametric spectral speech and noise estimates,” in Topics in Acoustic
Echo and Noise Control, E. Hänsler and G. Schmidt, Eds. New York: Springer-
Verlag, 2006.
[22] H.R. Künsch, “The jackknife and the bootstrap for general stationary observa-
tions,” Ann. Statist., vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 1217–1241, 1989.
[23] D.R. Iskander, M.J. Collins, M.R. Morelande, and M. Zhu, “Analyzing the
dynamic wavefront aberrations in human eye,” IEEE Trans. Biomed. Eng., vol. 51,
no. 11, pp. 1969–1980, 2004.
[24] D.N. Politis and H. White, “Automatic block-length selection for the depend-
ent bootstrap,” Econometric Rev., vol. 23, no, 1, pp. 53–70, 2004.
[25] C. Léger, D.N. Politis, and J.P. Romano, “Bootstrap technology and applica-
tions,” Technometrics, vol. 34, no. 4, pp. 378–398, 1992.
[26] D.N. Politis and J.P. Romano, “The stationary bootstrap,” J. Amer. Stat. Assoc.,
vol. 89, no. 428, pp. 1303–1313, 1994.
[27] D.N. Politis, “The impact of bootstrap methods on time series analysis,”
Statistical Sci., vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 219–230, 2003.
[28] S.-R. Huang, R. Lerner, and K. Parker, “On estimating the amplitude of har-
monic vibration from the Doppler spectrum of reflected signals,” J. Acoust. Soc.
Amer., vol. 88, no. 6, pp. 2702–2712, 1990.
[29] S. Barbarossa and O. Lemoine, “Analysis of nonlinear FM signals by pattern
recog-nition of their time-frequency representation,” IEEE Signal Processing
Lett., vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 112–115, 1996.
[30] L. Cirillo, A. Zoubir, and M. Amin, “Estimation of FM parameters using a
time-frequency Hough transform,” in Proc. ICASSP, Toulouse, France, May 2006,
vol. 3, pp. 169–172.
[SP]
IEEE SIGNAL PROCESSING MAGAZINE [19] JULY 2007
THE BOOTSTRAP IS A SOLUTION
TO FINDING DISTRIBUTION
ESTIMATES FOR THE DOPPLER
PARAMETERS (
ˆ
D
AND
ˆω
m
), A
TASK THAT WOULD BE TEDIOUS
OR EVEN IMPOSSIBLE TO
ACHIEVE ANALYTICALLY.
... By creating multiple resampled datasets, bootstrapping provides a distribution of the statistic of interest, allowing for a more robust estimation of its variability and uncertainty. In this case, bootstrapping was applied 250 times with replacements, generating 250 resampled datasets to improve the accuracy and reliability of the particle size estimation [39]. By resampling the original dataset numerous times and calculating the average particle size for each resampled dataset, the distribution of the average particle sizes was obtained. ...
... By creating multiple resamp datasets, bootstrapping provides a distribution of the statistic of interest, allowing f more robust estimation of its variability and uncertainty. In this case, bootstrapping applied 250 times with replacements, generating 250 resampled datasets to improve accuracy and reliability of the particle size estimation [39]. By resampling the orig dataset numerous times and calculating the average particle size for each resamp dataset, the distribution of the average particle sizes was obtained. ...
Article
Full-text available
Long-term space missions require c6areful resource management and recycling strategies to overcome the limitations of resupply missions. In this study, we investigated the potential to recycle space beverage packaging, which is typically made of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) and PET-aluminum-LDPE (PAL) trilaminate, by developing a LDPE-based composite material with PAL inclusions. Due to the limited availability of space beverage packaging, we replaced it with LDPE powder and commercial coffee packaging for the experiments. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) was employed to thoroughly analyze the composition of the commercial coffee packaging. The simulant packaging was reduced to a filler, and its thermal properties were characterized by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), while the particle size was analyzed via scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and the bootstrap resampling technique. Composite specimens were then fabricated by incorporating the filler into the LDPE matrix at loadings of 5 wt% and 10 wt%, and their mechanical and thermal properties were assessed through dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) and thermal conductivity measurements. The 10 wt% corresponds approximately to the radio between PAL and PE in space beverage packaging and is, therefore, the maximum usable percentage when considering a single package. The results indicate that, as the filler loading increased, the mechanical performance of the composite material decreased, while the thermal conductivity was significantly improved. Finally, 10 wt% LDPE/PAL filaments, with a diameter of 1.7 mm and suitable for the fused filament technique, were produced.
... This is the author's version which has not been fully edited and content may change prior to final publication. Applying a bootstrap analysis [46] with 1000 permutations, the values of the become statistically distributed as it is depicted in 12. According to this analysis, RR and SVR models have been discarded. ...
Article
Full-text available
In this article a methodology, based on the Kano model, to prioritize the features of a product or service is proposed. Instead of using detailed, lengthy, burdensome, time-demanding, and biased-prone questionnaires, enquiring the user satisfaction with each product feature, a simplified survey asking for the overall satisfaction with the product is used. The proposed method starts by training a machine learning (ML) model using a dataset of different instances of the product and the corresponding perceived quality. This model is then employed to derive the relationship between each feature and the satisfaction associated with them. The shape of this relationship is interpreted according to a Kano model placing each attribute in a bidimensional Kano map which is later partitioned using ML clustering techniques. This methodology has been applied to an open dataset containing the physicochemical characteristics of hundreds of wines and the corresponding scores obtained in a blind tasting evaluation. The research has shown that ML models get very remarkable results predicting the perceived quality of a wine and is able to build a Kano map of the wine features. The ML clustering techniques employed partitioning this Kano map has clearly overperformed conventional rectangular or polar segmentation. It has also been shown that using four categories of features, as it is proposed in the Kano model, is the most reasonable partition from an ML clustering perspective.
... Bagging as an ensemble learning method is used to improve the stability and accuracy of ML techniques. It generates many datasets from the original training dataset by bootstrap sampling [42], where a base learner, i.e. KNN in our study, is developed in parallel on each of these samples. ...
Article
This study explores the potential of automated fire safety conformity checks using a BIM tool. The focus is on travel distance regulations, one of the major concerns in building design. Checking travel distances requires information about the location of exits. Preferably, the Building Information Model (BIM) of the building should contain such information, and if not, user input can be requested. However, a faster, yet still reliable and accurate, methodology is strived for. Therefore, this study presents an automated solution that uses machine learning to add the required semantics to the building model. Three algorithms (Bagged KNN, SVM, and XGBoost) are evaluated at a low Level of Detail (LOD) BIM models. With precision, recall, and F1 scores ranging from 0.87 to 0.90, the model exhibits reliable performance in the classification of doors. In a validation process with two separate sample buildings, the models accurately identified all ’Exits’ in the first building with 94 samples, with only 5 to 6 minor misclassifications. In the second building, all models- with the exception of the SVM - correctly classified every door. Despite their theoretical promise, oversampling techniques do not enhance the results, indicating their inherent limitations.
... Критериями оценки эффективности и качества моделей служили AUC, чувствительность (Recall), специфичность, точность (Accuracy), прогностические ценности положительного (Precision) и отрицательного результатов, матрица ошибок и калибровочные кривые [15,16]. Доверительные интервалы значений выбранных статистик оценивались с помощью метода бутстрап путем случайной генерации тысячи псевдовыборок [17]. В качестве порогов активации использовали максимум индекса Юдена, а также целевые уровни прогностических ценностей отрицательного (0,99) (ПЦОР) и положительного (0,65) результата (ПЦПР). ...
Article
Full-text available
BACKGROUND: The incidence of diabetes mellitus (DM) both in the Russian Federation and in the world has been steadily increasing for several decades. Stable population growth and current epidemiological characteristics of DM lead to enormous economic costs and significant social losses throughout the world. The disease often progresses with the development of specific complications, while significantly increasing the likelihood of hospitalization. The creation and inference of a machine learning model for predicting hospitalizations of patients with DM to an inpatient medical facility will make it possible to personalize the provision of medical care and optimize the load on the entire healthcare system. AIM : Development and validation of models for predicting unplanned hospitalizations of patients with diabetes due to the disease itself and its complications using machine learning algorithms and data from real clinical practice. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 170,141 depersonalized electronic health records of 23,742 diabetic patients were included in the study. Anamnestic, constitutional, clinical, instrumental and laboratory data, widely used in routine medical practice, were considered as potential predictors, a total of 33 signs. Logistic regression (LR), gradient boosting methods (LightGBM, XGBoost, CatBoost), decision tree-based methods (RandomForest and ExtraTrees), and a neural network-based algorithm (Multi-layer Perceptron) were compared. External validation was performed on the data of the separate region of Russian Federation. RESULTS: The best results and stability to external validation data were shown by the LightGBM model with an AUC of 0.818 (95% CI 0.802–0.834) in internal testing and 0.802 (95% CI 0.773–0.832) in external validation. CONCLUSION : The metrics of the best model were superior to previously published studies. The results of external validation showed the relative stability of the model to new data from another region, that reflects the possibility of the model’s application in real clinical practice.
... In this particular context, the median is used to compute Z b . This is because measured samples are often affected by noise during the measurement phase, which is a result of the Fig. 5 Resampling steps of bootstrap [38] dynamic nature of the wireless network. Outliers can bias the arithmetic mean and variance of the samples, but the median is not influenced by extreme values in the sampling. ...
Article
Full-text available
Learning models from COVID-19 data are conducive to understand this disease. However, the scarcity of labeled data presents certain challenges. Previous works have exploited existing deep neural network models that are pre-trained on large datasets like the ImageNet dataset. However, the generalization of the pre-trained models remains a challenge. The objective of this study is to develop an accurate and reliable model that improves diagnostic accuracy and reduces the chances of misdiagnosis. This, in turn, enables appropriate and timely medical interventions for COVID-19 patients. In this paper, a novel framework is proposed to monitor and predict COVID-19 cases that relies on (1) a layered software architecture and (2) a deep neural network model for data processing. The proposed deep neural network model is based on a pre-trained RegNet model. However, the RegNet has limitations in effectively capturing complex shapes. The receptive field may not handle enough shape. To address this issue, we construct a new block using commonly used convolutional and max-pooling layers. It also incorporates the attention mechanism. This mechanism allows us to control a large receptive field with limited computational resources, highlight relevant features and enhance the discriminative power of the model. Comparative experiments using four different benchmark datasets have shown promising results. The proposed model exhibits high efficiency in accurately distinguishing COVID-19 images, with accuracy ranging from 96.43% to 98.96%. It is advisable that future works explore our proposed framework for more detection problems.
Article
The Weibull distribution is an extensively used statistical model for analyzing the reliability of mechanical and electrical components. Due to the complexity of the nonlinear equations and the scarcity of failure data, the common method may not provide satisfactory results of the reliability. In this case, a new approach for Weibull parameter estimation and reliability analysis, based on successive approximation schemes, is presented. The shape and scale parameters are estimated by maximizing the likelihood functions, and the location parameter is obtained by constructing an approximate correction model between it and the failure data. In order to show the performance of the proposed method, an extensive Monte‐Carlo simulation study is conducted. Simulation results show that the proposed method provides better estimates and efficient confidence intervals for Weibull parameters. In addition, the proposed method works well in presence of small sample sizes. Finally, two real examples are analyzed to illustrate the application of the proposed method.
Article
Full-text available
Deep learning methods contain powerful tools for modelling nonlinear dynamic systems. However, whilst these models are useful for predicting outputs, they tend to be described by complicated black box equations that lack interpretability. They are therefore not so useful for giving insight into system dynamics, and importantly, insight into why a system produces a certain output in response to a given input. This paper presents a novel method for interpreting and comparing deep learning models for nonlinear system identification, using nonlinear output frequency response functions (NOFRFs). NOFRFs describe nonlinear dynamic system behaviour in the frequency-domain using one-dimensional functions, in a manner similar to how Bode plots are used for analysing linear dynamic systems. This is a classical way of interpreting and understanding system behaviour, e.g. via resonances, and in the case of nonlinear systems, super and sub-harmonics, and energy transfer between frequencies. We also use uncertainty quantification via the bootstrap method to enhance the model interpretation, by propagating the model uncertainty estimates into the frequency-domain. The approach is demonstrated with gated recurrent unit (GRU) and long short term memory (LSTM) models – both are types of recurrent network used in deep learning that are analogous to nonlinear state space models. The results obtained from both a numerical example (a nonlinear mass spring damper system that exhibits energy transfer between frequencies) and a real-world nonlinear system (a magneto-rheological damper) show that it is possible to gain valuable insight and interpretation of the system dynamics from the NOFRFs in a way that is not possible from analysing the time-domain model equations alone.
Article
This paper shows how to derive more information from a bootstrap analysis, information about the accuracy of the usual bootstrap estimates. Suppose that we observe data x = (x1 x2, . . ., xn), compute a statistic of interest s(x) and further compute B bootstrap replications of s, say s(x*1) s(x*2), . . ., s(x*B), where B is some large number like 1000. Various accuracy measures for s(x) can be obtained from the bootstrap values, e.g. the bootstrap estimates of standard error and bias, or the length and shape of bootstrap confidence intervals. We might wonder how accurate these accuracy measures themselves are, or how sensitive they are to small changes in the individual data points xi. It turns out that these questions can be answered from the information in the original bootstrap sample s*1 s*2, . . ., s*B, with no further resampling required. The answers, which make use of the jackknife and delta method influence functions, are easy to apply and can give informative results, as shown by several examples.
Book
A general approach to constructing confidence intervals by subsampling was presented in Politis and Romano (1994). The crux of the method is recomputing a statistic over subsamples of the data, and these recomputed values are used to build up an estimated sampling distribution. The method works under extremely weak conditions, it applies to independent, identically distributed (i.i.d.) observations as well as to dependent data situations, such as time series (possibly nonstationary), random fields, and marked point processes. In this article, we present some theorems showing: a new construction for confidence intervals that removes a previous condition, a general theorem showing the validity of subsampling for data-dependent choices of the block size, and a general theorem for the construction of hypothesis tests (not necessarily derived from a confidence interval construction). The arguments apply to both the i.i.d. setting and the dependent data case.
Chapter
The control of a class of systems with unknown parameters in the presence of time-delay and magnitude constraints on the input is considered. An example of such systems can be found in continuous combustion processes where the active control input corresponds to fuel injection, and the goal of the controller is to suppress the pressure oscillations that occur at several operating conditions. Stringent emission specifications and the danger of flame extinction impose severe constraints on the magnitude of the fuel. Time-delays due to convection, mixing, atomization, and vaporization of the fuel are also present in these systems. Simultaneously present are changes in the operating conditions due to demands on the load, performance, and emissions, and variations in the fuel composition. All of the above characteristics imply that an adaptive control approach that accommodates saturation constraints in the presence of a time-delay are required. In this chapter, control algorithms that accommodate these characteristics are presented. The behavior of these controllers is validated in the context of a combustion system subject to time-delays and input saturation.
Article
Bootstrap resampling methods have emerged as powerful tools for constructing inferential procedures in modern statistical data analysis. Although these methods depend on the availability of fast, inexpensive computing, they offer the potential for highly accurate methods of inference. Moreover, they can even eliminate the need to impose a convenient statistical model that does not have a strong scientific basis. In this article, we review some bootstrap methods, emphasizing applications through illustrations with some real data. Special attention is given to regression, problems with dependent data, and choosing tuning parameters for optimal performance.
Article
This article introduces a resampling procedure called the stationary bootstrap as a means of calculating standard errors of estimators and constructing confidence regions for parameters based on weakly dependent stationary observations. Previously, a technique based on resampling blocks of consecutive observations was introduced to construct confidence intervals for a parameter of the m-dimensional joint distribution of m consecutive observations, where m is fixed. This procedure has been generalized by constructing a “blocks of blocks” resampling scheme that yields asymptotically valid procedures even for a multivariate parameter of the whole (i.e., infinite-dimensional) joint distribution of the stationary sequence of observations. These methods share the construction of resampling blocks of observations to form a pseudo-time series, so that the statistic of interest may be recalculated based on the resampled data set. But in the context of applying this method to stationary data, it is natural to require the resampled pseudo-time series to be stationary (conditional on the original data) as well. Although the aforementioned procedures lack this property, the stationary procedure developed here is indeed stationary and possesses other desirable properties. The stationary procedure is based on resampling blocks of random length, where the length of each block has a geometric distribution. In this article, fundamental consistency and weak convergence properties of the stationary resampling scheme are developed.
Article
When a regression problem contains many predictor variables, it is rarely wise to try to fit the data by means of a least squares regression on all of the predictor variables. Usually, a regression equation based on a few variables will be more accurate and certainly simpler. There are various methods for picking “good” subsets of variables, and programs that do such procedures are part of every widely used statistical package. The most common methods are based on stepwise addition or deletion of variables and on “best subsets.” The latter refers to a search method that, given the number of variables to be in the equation (say, five), locates that regression equation based on five variables that has the lowest residual sum of squares among all five variable equations. All of these procedures generate a sequence of regression equations, the first based on one variable, the next based on two variables, and so on. Each member of this sequence is called a submodel and the number of variables in the equation is the dimensionality of the submodel. A complex problem is determining which submodel of the generated sequence to select. Statistical packages use various ad hoc selection methods, including F to enter, F to delete, Cp, and t-value cutoffs. Our approach to this problem is through the criterion that a good selection procedure selects dimensionality so as to give low prediction error (PE), where the PE of a regression equation is its expected squared error over the points in the X design. Because the true PE is unknown, the use of this criteria must be based on PE estimates. We introduce a method called the little bootstrap, which gives almost unbiased estimates for submodel PEs and then uses these to do submodel selection. Comparison is made to Cp and other methods by analytic examples and simulations. Little bootstrap does well—Cp and, by implication, all selection methods not based on data reuse give highly biased results and poor subset selection.