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From Global Order to Global Transition: Russia and the Future of International Relations https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/From-Global-Order-to-Global-Transition-19989?fbclid=IwAR1rfyxW6Ch_FKesnEIF4xMV7nRj_K8GTykCHqPELHF0VGWd8iReaKdvCiY

Authors:
From Global Order
to Global Transition

Andrei P. Tsygankov
Abstract
The world entered the era of change no later than the second half of the
2000s; however, analysts still lack a common understanding of the conditions
that surrounded the disintegration of the former world order as well as of the
processes, horizons and results of the transition to a new global order. This
article discusses what exactly is in store for Russia and when—a growing
global disorder caused by the collapse of international institutions created
aer World War II, the preservation of American domination, or something
else? It was the United States that started revising the world order; therefore,
Russia’s behavior can be considered revisionist only in relation to Washington’s
revisionist strategy imposed on it. The current post-Washington world transition
is analyzed here in the context of theoretical studies concerning the previous
post-Vienna, post-Paris, post-Versailles and post-Yalta transitions and their
historical experience. The article concludes that the current post-Washington
transition is irreversible, yet it may take more time than the previous ones and
Andrei P. Tsygankov
San Francisco State University, San Francisco, USA.
Professor, International Relations and Political Science
Google Scholar
Scopus AuthorID 7102020604
Tel.: +7 415-338-7493
E-mail: andrei@sfsu.edu
Address: 1600 Holloway Avenue. San Francisco. CA 94132 Office: HSS 354
The paper partly draws on Tsygankov, 2019, forthcoming.
DOI: 10.31278/1810-6374-2019-17-1-52-70
RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS
From Global Order to Global Transition
extend beyond 2050. Each country will have to rethink its place and strategy of
struggle for survival and development in the new transitional world. Russia is
still working to define its strategy, and the success will depend on a combination
of asymmetric resistance aimed at upholding the country’s vital interests in the
world, active efforts to build a new world order, and domestic reforms required
for that.
Keywords: world order, world transition, status quo, revisionism, Washington
world order, post-Washington transition, Russia
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       
VOL. 17 • No. 1 • JANUARY – MARCH • 2019 
Andrei P. Tsygankov
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


 
          






     


          
        

        
       
       
        
         
           

    
           
RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS
From Global Order to Global Transition
   
       

     
    
         
   

CONDITIONS AND HORIZONS OF GLOBAL TRANSITION
        
         

         
          
   
         
        

        


global transition,






         


 
          

VOL. 17 • No. 1 • JANUARY – MARCH • 2019 
Andrei P. Tsygankov


  

         
          
          
        
   
War and Change in World Politics,


           
        





        



        
         


        
   

        
          



RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS
From Global Order to Global Transition

        
          
          


       



  




          
   
  
 
  
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           
 
         

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         

         

         
         
          
VOL. 17 • No. 1 • JANUARY – MARCH • 2019 
Andrei P. Tsygankov
         


           



          
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          
      



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         


    
         
           
    



         
         
    
   
         

        

      

RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS
From Global Order to Global Transition
RUSSIA AND THE CURRENT GLOBAL TRANSITION



 



         
          
         
   



          

        
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          
          
           




        


         



          

VOL. 17 • No. 1 • JANUARY – MARCH • 2019 
Andrei P. Tsygankov

       




        

        

       
          
     

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

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    
          
          
        
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        
        
   
      



         
         
          
          
RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS
From Global Order to Global Transition
      
         
          


           


        
 e Inevitable, Weird World,  

       



          




  
  
          
     

     



           

          

         

VOL. 17 • No. 1 • JANUARY – MARCH • 2019 
Andrei P. Tsygankov
      
 


      
   
        

       
        

        

          

          
          

 

 

           



         



        

       

           
RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS
From Global Order to Global Transition


         
        
          
      



 
         

    
          

        
      
         
          

  

         
        
        

         
        
 






VOL. 17 • No. 1 • JANUARY – MARCH • 2019 
Andrei P. Tsygankov
FUTURE STRATEGIES OF RUSSIA AND OTHER POWERS



         
           
    
         
        



 
         

   



       



           



       

      
        
         
       


RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS
From Global Order to Global Transition



        
 

       
         
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         
       
VOL. 17 • No. 1 • JANUARY – MARCH • 2019 
Andrei P. Tsygankov





      




TOWARDS THE FUTURE UNDERSTANDING
OF THE GLOBAL TRANSITION

        
       






          
         
       





  

         


RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS
From Global Order to Global Transition
        





         




   



       
        




       
      

    

     


References
    Sistemnaya istoriya mezhdunarodnyh otnosheniī
        

VOL. 17 • No. 1 • JANUARY – MARCH • 2019 
Andrei P. Tsygankov
    Sistemnaya istoriya mezhdunarodnyh otnoshenii

    Sistemnaya istoriya mezhdunarodnyh otnoshenii

         
context. Russia in Global Aairs,      


Us vs.em: the failure of globalism.
Soviet fates and lost alternatives: from Stalinism to the New Cold
War.
Empires, systems, and states: great
transformations in international politics.   
Press.
Russian hybrid warfare: resurgence and politicization. New

   War and change in world politics.  


Problems of Post-Communism,
   Changing welfare states.    
Press.
Peace and war: armed conicts and international order, 1648-
1989.
Power,order, and changein world politics.

    
International Aairs,
Diplomacy.
World order.

Spigel,


RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS
From Global Order to Global Transition
    
 Multipolarity: the promise of disharmony.
Verlag.
Russian Council of International
Aairs,      

          
Ponars Policy Memo
State capitalism: How the return of statism is transforming
the world.
Retreat and its consequences: American foreign policy and the
problem of world order.
Return to Cold War.

Foreign Aairs, 
        Testing the value of the postwar
international order. 
   eory of unipolar politics.  

Politics among nations: the struggle for power and peace.

e Struggle for recognition in international relations: status,
revisionism, and rising powers.
        
International Studies Review


e Wall Street Journal,

         
Mezhdunarodnaya zhizn’, 
       Russian views of the international order.

VOL. 17 • No. 1 • JANUARY – MARCH • 2019 
Andrei P. Tsygankov
Tezisy po vneshneī politike i pozitsionirovaniyu Rossii v mire (2017-
2035 gg.)

Russia againstthe Rest: the post-Cold War crisis of world order.

   e transformation of European politics, 1763-1848.

e limits of partnership: U.S.-Russian relations in the twenty-
rst century.
   Post-Western world: how emerging powers are remaking
global order.
   e struggle for mastery in Europe, 1848-1918. 

Russia and the West from Alexander to Putin. 

          
     Valdaiskiye zapiski
     

Russia and America: the asymmetric rivalry.

Living in a crumbling world.

        

   Discord and collaboration: essays on international politics.

   Asymmetry and international relationships. 


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RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS
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We examine some problematic narratives in the American international relations scholarship on Russia, focusing on some implicit assumptions about the drivers of Russian foreign policy. Most prominently, this includes the idea that Russian foreign policy is driven primarily by the qualities of its internal regime. While domestic institutions undoubtedly matter, we argue that two other factors are key for understanding Russia’s foreign policy: the pursuit of primacy in its immediate neighborhood, and the pursuit of peer recognition with major Western powers. These imperatives are key for understanding Russian behavior abroad, transcend particular leaders and domestic institutions, and can help explain “unexpected” shifts in Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy that domestic explanations tend to miss.
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The ideas for this book began as reflections on the mutual misperceptions of China and Vietnam, evolved into an analysis of the Sino-Vietnamese relationship, and further into China’s asymmetric relationships with all its neighbours. As my Asia-focussed research progressed, however, it seemed to me that while asymmetric relationships had not received much attention in international relations theory, managing the relationships of large and small states is a general and increasingly more important problem. Hence this book.
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During the last decade, 'Hybrid Warfare' has become a novel yet controversial term in academic, political and professional military lexicons, intended to suggest some sort of mix between different military and non-military means and methods of confrontation. Enthusiastic discussion of the notion has been undermined by conceptual vagueness and political manipulation, particularly since the onset of the Ukrainian crisis in early 2014, as ideas about Hybrid Warfare engulf Russia and the West, especially in the media. Western defense and political specialists analyzing Russian responses to the crisis have been quick to confirm that Hybrid Warfare is the Kremlin's main strategy in the twenty-first century. But many respected Russian strategists and political observers contend that it is the West that has been waging Hybrid War, Gibridnaya Voyna, since the end of the Cold War. In this highly topical book, Ofer Fridman offers a clear delineation of the conceptual debates about Hybrid Warfare. What leads Russian experts to say that the West is conducting a Gibridnaya Voyna against Russia, and what do they mean by it? Why do Western observers claim that the Kremlin engages in Hybrid Warfare? And, beyond terminology, is this something genuinely new?
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In this book Richard Sakwa provides a new analysis of the end of the Cold War and the subsequent failure to create a comprehensive and inclusive peace order in Europe. The end of the Cold War did not create a sustainable peace system. Instead, for a quarter of a century a ‘cold peace’ reflected the tension between cooperative and competitive behaviour. None of the fundamental problems of European security were resolved, and tensions accumulated. In 2014 the crisis exploded in the form of conflict in Ukraine, provoking what some call a ‘new Cold War’. Russia against the Rest challenges the view that this is a replay of the old conflict, explaining how the tensions between Russia and the Atlantic community reflect a global realignment of the international system. Sakwa provides a balanced and carefully researched analysis of the trajectory of European and global politics since the late 1980s.
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What are the consequences of retreat and retrenchment in foreign policy? In recent years, America has pulled back from its longtime role of international leadership. In doing so, the Obama administration has sought to conciliate adversaries; shown indifference to allies; called upon the international community to step in; proclaimed and then disavowed “red lines”; and preferred to lead from behind in the face of catastrophic civil war in Syria, ISIS barbarism in the Middle East and North Africa, Russia’s predatory behavior in Eastern Europe, and China’s muscle-flexing in East Asia. The consequences of this “realist” experiment have been costly and painful, and it has caused the United States to lose credibility with friends and foes. America retains the capacity to lead, but unless it resumes a more robust role, the world is likely to become a more dangerous place, with mounting threats not only to regional stability and international order, but to the country’s own national interests.
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Are there recurring historical dynamics and patterns that can help us understand today’s power transitions and struggles over international order? What can we learn from the past? Are the cycles of rise and decline of power and international order set to continue? Robert Gilpin’s classic work, War and Change in World Politics offers a sweeping and influential account of the rise and decline of leading states and the international orders they create. Now, some thirty years on, this volume brings together an outstanding collection of scholars to reflect on Gilpin’s grand themes of power and change in world politics. The chapters engage with theoretical ideas that shape the way we think about great powers, with the latest literature on the changing US position in the global system, and with the challenges to the existing order that are being generated by China and other rising non-Western states.
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The Limits of Partnership offers a riveting narrative on U.S.-Russian relations since the Soviet collapse and on the challenges ahead. It reflects the unique perspective of an insider who is also recognized as a leading expert on this troubled relationship. American presidents have repeatedly attempted to forge a strong and productive partnership only to be held hostage to the deep mistrust born of the Cold War. For the United States, Russia remains a priority because of its nuclear weapons arsenal, its strategic location bordering Europe and Asia, and its ability to support--or thwart--American interests. Why has it been so difficult to move the relationship forward? What are the prospects for doing so in the future? Is the effort doomed to fail again and again? Angela Stent served as an adviser on Russia under Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, and maintains close ties with key policymakers in both countries. Here, she argues that the same contentious issues--terrorism, missile defense, Iran, nuclear proliferation, Afghanistan, the former Soviet space, the greater Middle East--have been in every president's inbox, Democrat and Republican alike, since the collapse of the USSR. Stent vividly describes how Clinton and Bush sought inroads with Russia and staked much on their personal ties to Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin--only to leave office with relations at a low point--and how Barack Obama managed to restore ties only to see them undermined by a Putin regime resentful of American dominance and determined to restore Russia's great power status. The Limits of Partnership calls for a fundamental reassessment of the principles and practices that drive U.S.-Russian relations, and offers a path forward to meet the urgent challenges facing both countries.